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mercure1
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Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:26 pm

No shock but Dr Peters Group which has investments in 21 A380s is finding fate of the aircraft and any residual value as uncertain.
Disassembly is the most likely option, although this needs the approval of three-quarters of shareholders in Dr Peters fund.

In 2018 Dr Peters predicted parts revenue of around $70 million from each A380 assembly, but at the end of 2019, however, each scrapped A380 had generated only $19 million, with the prices of parts awaiting sale only likely to fall as more A380s head to the chop shop.


German Investors Mull A380 Fate

https://aviationweek.com/mro/german-inv ... -a380-fate
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KlimaBXsst
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:39 pm

That is harsh!
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
Strato2
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:39 pm

Wronk. Dr Peters said nothing what you suggest. The claim was made by the guy who wrote the article.
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:43 pm

It does not take a genius to see that any business case for the A380 has been questionable for many years now.

After market values will only get worse as even more frames such as ones by EK are let go.
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:55 pm

One thus has to wonder if the Hi Fly lease is a power by the hour one where rent is only paid when 9H-MIP is in the air. That said, if any of their frames were RR Trent, BA could have been interested as Heathrow can’t expand.

The overall wide body glut isn’t helping either as older A330s and even 777s are being scrapped too. The 767 is being saved by its versatility as a freighter conversion and having just a 187t MTOW. The A321neo, B789, A339, and A359 hit the sweet spot.
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:06 am

The huge cost to overhaul and repurpose a frame for a new operator is another barrier that makes finding a future home harder.

I'd also agree that scrap value for the type will also decrease as more frames are parted and the operating fleet shrinks. Before you know it, there will be a glut of parts sitting in stock room shelves.
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:11 am

janders wrote:
It does not take a genius to see that any business case for the A380 has been questionable for many years now.

After market values will only get worse as even more frames such as ones by EK are let go.


Doric firmed an order for 20 as recently as Feb. 2014. The thread of denial was long, long and deep.
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:12 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
One thus has to wonder if the Hi Fly lease is a power by the hour one where rent is only paid when 9H-MIP is in the air. That said, if any of their frames were RR Trent, BA could have been interested as Heathrow can’t expand.

The overall wide body glut isn’t helping either as older A330s and even 777s are being scrapped too. The 767 is being saved by its versatility as a freighter conversion and having just a 187t MTOW. The A321neo, B789, A339, and A359 hit the sweet spot.


Yes, that is the structure for HiFly.
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:16 am

Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."


What else is new?

The deal will see Air France make a maintenance payment due to the aircraft not meeting its lease return conditions, and continue to lease its GP7000 engines.


So Air France will continue to pay for the aircraft without operating it.
Good moaning!
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:34 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."


What else is new?

The deal will see Air France make a maintenance payment due to the aircraft not meeting its lease return conditions, and continue to lease its GP7000 engines.


So Air France will continue to pay for the aircraft without operating it.


Long story short: it’s likely cheaper for them to do that than continue flying the airframe.
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mercure1
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:48 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
So Air France will continue to pay for the aircraft without operating it.


Not quite. It was reported that it was agreed to instead of doing overhaul as required as part of the return conditions, AF agreed to pay a portion of this overhaul cost to lessor instead. No point in overhauling plane that might never fly again.
Also there was an agreement to lease the 4 engines as spares (and subsequently avoid overhauls on engines on flying AF frames).
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travelhound
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:27 am

mercure1 wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
So Air France will continue to pay for the aircraft without operating it.


Not quite. It was reported that it was agreed to instead of doing overhaul as required as part of the return conditions, AF agreed to pay a portion of this overhaul cost to lessor instead. No point in overhauling plane that might never fly again.
Also there was an agreement to lease the 4 engines as spares (and subsequently avoid overhauls on engines on flying AF frames).


Exactly, Business as Usual for the return of leased aircraft.
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:43 am

Several options available:

-Conversion to flying hospitals.
Haiti earthquakes, Ebola, Corona virus.
There is no lack of demand.

-Waterbombers

-Military applications. Airborne radar, maritime patrol, personnel mass-transport.
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:00 am

Weird, could not find said quote by Dr Peters anywhere within the link?
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Revelation
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:05 am

janders wrote:
It does not take a genius to see that any business case for the A380 has been questionable for many years now.

After market values will only get worse as even more frames such as ones by EK are let go.

Strange thing is many prominent a.net members predicted values would go up once the early substandard birds were cleared from the backlog.

I guess the sight of the first one being scrapped has caused a big rethink on what the future may hold for used A380s.
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:58 am

I wonder how much of A380 components can be utilized for other models? I guess not enough to help with scrap values.
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smartplane
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:08 am

travelhound wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
So Air France will continue to pay for the aircraft without operating it.


Not quite. It was reported that it was agreed to instead of doing overhaul as required as part of the return conditions, AF agreed to pay a portion of this overhaul cost to lessor instead. No point in overhauling plane that might never fly again.
Also there was an agreement to lease the 4 engines as spares (and subsequently avoid overhauls on engines on flying AF frames).


Exactly, Business as Usual for the return of leased aircraft.

Yes. End of lease balloon payment. Instead of a lump sum, which would appear as an extraordinary expense, both lessor and lessee get to treat in a more flattering manner. Win win.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:47 am

Maybe that Amadeo order will come through after all and save the day. :}
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:53 am

FlyHappy wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Several options available:

-Conversion to flying hospitals.
Haiti earthquakes, Ebola, Corona virus.
There is no lack of demand.

-Waterbombers

-Military applications. Airborne radar, maritime patrol, personnel mass-transport.


The crazy thing is that based on your prior posts, you are writing this with sincerity.
How do you pull it off?


Well, just in case you missed it, we live in a new reality.
China is dealing with an epidemic of major proportions that is going to kill travel demand for a big chunk of the year in the largest growth market and who knows how it will play out over the coming months/years. Dozens of widebodies are being parked, the bottom is falling off the market.
In such a market, the A380 doesn't stand a chance as a people hauler or at least in theory.

This being said, John Leahy sold 200 A380's during peak oil and with the B787 just lurking around the corner. Something unexpected may come out of this. After all, paying top dollar to lease B787's, A330neo, A350, B77W/B77X doesn't look like a smart idea when oil is cheap and demand unpredictable.
We might see airlines going for cheap A380 lease renewals, operating more and more on an on-demand or spot demand basis and dumping expensive smaller newgen widebodies.
Yields may be under pressure for a while as appetitr for travel decreases.
The frequency over capacity model works well in a normal operating environment, but we're no longer in a normal operating environment with MAX issues, Brexit effective and Corona virus adding major variables.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:08 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:57 am

While the A380 could be repurposed for unusual and military duties, the problem lies that the 747-400 also occupies that space. The 747 is cheaper, more common and has a wider parts inventory. So unless you need to haul 800+ people in one go, it seems unrealistic.
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:34 am

I hope Dr. Peters likes his hair cut short!
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:04 am

Revelation wrote:
janders wrote:
It does not take a genius to see that any business case for the A380 has been questionable for many years now.

After market values will only get worse as even more frames such as ones by EK are let go.

Strange thing is many prominent a.net members predicted values would go up once the early substandard birds were cleared from the backlog.

I guess the sight of the first one being scrapped has caused a big rethink on what the future may hold for used A380s.



It was more than that. The general zeitgeist at the time was very strongly in favor of the 380 as a proposition WRT its future as a PAX hauler. In fairness to its proponents at the time -a group I was not part of- the idea that the VLA market would eventually favor large twins still had yet to take hold. Even as recently as seven or eight years ago.
The data available at the time suggested a much closer race than it actually was.



Also in fairness, most of the 380's fan club, if you will, have come around to see things as they now are. In my view, it is actually a good large scale example of people's opinions altering with new data*.





Waterbomber2 wrote:

Well, just in case you missed it, we live in a new reality.
China is dealing with an epidemic of major proportions that is going to kill travel demand for a big chunk of the year in the largest growth market and who knows how it will play out over the coming months/years. Dozens of widebodies are being parked, the bottom is falling off the market.
In such a market, the A380 doesn't stand a chance as a people hauler or at least in theory.

This being said, John Leahy sold 200 A380's during peak oil and with the B787 just lurking around the corner. Something unexpected may come out of this. After all, paying top dollar to lease B787's, A330neo, A350, B77W/B77X doesn't look like a smart idea when oil is cheap and demand unpredictable.
We might see airlines going for cheap A380 lease renewals, operating more and more on an on-demand or spot demand basis and dumping expensive smaller newgen widebodies.


Ok. Well, for a start, the luxury of making the assumption that some manner of Deus Ex Machina will come along to save A388 value is not something operators or lease holders are in any great supply of.

Thanks to EK -primarily- there is some slack here. But not likely enough for it to in the direction you are hoping.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The frequency over capacity model works well in a normal operating environment, but we're no longer in a normal operating environment with MAX issues, Brexit effective and Corona virus adding major variables.


Even where the A380 is successful most, frequency is still a huge part of that equation. EK will make good money off theirs to places like LHR for the foreseeable future. This is what, six dailies?

As for Flying Hospitals, how many of those exist? What does that market even look like?
I will say this about that. I believe that to be a very peculiar market/need, as it relates to the specific machinery. From personal experience, I have docked and worked on more than a few A388s in my time. I cannot begin impart just how needy these aircraft are, once on the ground. It is not only the gating issues, but things like Ground PWR are very specific for that aircraft. The advanced planning needed for those is, in and of itself, very likely prohibitive for their use in such a role.

Waterbombing? For a lot of similar reasons, I do not see that happening. To that, we can add the fact that existing aerial firefighters utilize very low hours and are not that geriatric. We would also have to consider the budgets the involved municipalities actually have for these things.


* I am aware that the hard data now overwhelmingly supporting Large Twins and Twin VLAs existed then as well. What was less clear was the nature of the Commercial Aviation Industry, and to a lesser extent, their own marketing priorities, at large.
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:44 am

By 2030 the number of flying A380s will be below 20.
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:13 am

Great points - I clipped your quotes to the best pieces


DarkSnowyNight wrote:

It was more than that. The general zeitgeist at the time was very strongly in favor of the 380 as a proposition WRT its future as a PAX hauler. In fairness to its proponents at the time -a group I was not part of- the idea that the VLA market would eventually favor large twins still had yet to take hold. Even as recently as seven or eight years ago.
The data available at the time suggested a much closer race than it actually was.

Even where the A380 is successful most, frequency is still a huge part of that equation. EK will make good money off theirs to places like LHR for the foreseeable future. This is what, six dailies?

As for Flying Hospitals, how many of those exist? What does that market even look like?
I will say this about that. I believe that to be a very peculiar market/need, as it relates to the specific machinery. From personal experience, I have docked and worked on more than a few A388s in my time. I cannot begin impart just how needy these aircraft are, once on the ground. It is not only the gating issues, but things like Ground PWR are very specific for that aircraft. The advanced planning needed for those is, in and of itself, very likely prohibitive for their use in such a role.

Waterbombing? For a lot of similar reasons, I do not see that happening. To that, we can add the fact that existing aerial firefighters utilize very low hours and are not that geriatric. We would also have to consider the budgets the involved municipalities actually have for these things.

* I am aware that the hard data now overwhelmingly supporting Large Twins and Twin VLAs existed then as well. What was less clear was the nature of the Commercial Aviation Industry, and to a lesser extent, their own marketing priorities, at large.


Cue to 2005, the A380 was on course for decades of 40+ per year production, Boeing decided to do the 748 around then and the 77W was quietly getting certified. No one saw that the 77W and a few years later the 787 & A350 took all the orders away from the VLA.

Flying hospitals - possibly a dozen needed, but 777's and A330's would do as well. The US Navy only has 2 hospital ships, has been no need for additional.


Waterbombers - in the US there is one 747 tanker, it does OK but it is big for a fire tanker, most are smaller.
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:00 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
While the A380 could be repurposed for unusual and military duties, the problem lies that the 747-400 also occupies that space. The 747 is cheaper, more common and has a wider parts inventory. So unless you need to haul 800+ people in one go, it seems unrealistic.


Yes there are a number of PAX 744 used as charters, moving US troops etc.

How many 744 ? And at what cost ?

I would think some A380s could continue flying similarly.
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:24 pm

Troop charters are not frequent enough to maintain a fleet (especially one that has no cargo sibling to share costs with), and HiFly is demonstrating the challenges of finding A380 charters perfectly. There is no need for something the size of the A380 for radar use or maritime patrol (that last one is just laughable). Especially since Airbus would push for new aircraft based off the A330 or A320 depending on application.

Same thing with things like flying hospitals. Events needing large scale flying hospitals are rare. If you are at one place for a significant amount of time you just build a hospital on the ground or upgrade existing facilities, which in the end benefits the local population more than random quick short term flying hospital visits done for “goodwill”. That’s why flying hospitals use old equipment, and typically heavily supported by an airline (like Fedex and the flying eye hospital-the plane was donated and gets a lot of operational support from FX). For many places (like the Haiti earthquake example cited) a hospital ship makes far more sense than a hospital plane which has far less capacity and will take up potentially valuable ramp space.

Someone may be willing to give an airline (like HiFly) essentially a pay by hour deal making frames cheap to own/operate for a couple A380s, but no one is going to eat the cost for a significant number.
 
Strato2
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:46 pm

The title of this thread is a LIE. Nowhere in the article has Dr. Peters said what is suggested.
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:59 pm

Well the cost is already low. If parting is worth 19 millions, then the aircraft is basically worth 19 millions.
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:03 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Wronk. Dr Peters said nothing what you suggest. The claim was made by the guy who wrote the article.



Does your statement imply that "Onward demand for the A380 is good"?
 
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Polot
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:08 pm

Aesma wrote:
Well the cost is already low. If parting is worth 19 millions, then the aircraft is basically worth 19 millions.

That doesn’t take into account the costs of maintaining a fleet. And for things like a flying hospital 19 million is a lot (they rely almost exclusivity on donations, either monetary or other, nobody “pays” for the services of a flying hospital).
 
ltbewr
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:53 pm

The Dr. Peters Group just made a bad investment, took a chance that has not panned out and but for some offset of tax write offs will mean low or no return on investment.
I would also be concerned that a number of A380's would be WFU and scrapped if there is another major international recession reducing demand for many flights it is used for and further decline in scrap value. The 380 cannot be really converted from pax to freight, further cutting its used values. Eventually Airbus, with several Euro 100's of millions in losses from the A380 program will reduce support for them to cut their losses and along higher fuel prices in the future, will lead to their demise. I think there is a place for them, mainly at the most slot restricted airports like LHR but it may not be enough to sustain them by as others have suggested, beyond 2030.
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:55 pm

Aesma wrote:
Well the cost is already low. If parting is worth 19 millions, then the aircraft is basically worth 19 millions.

19 millions is what they sold as spare parts SO FAR. It’s not yet completed. The parts sales process expected to take two years.

I am not saying they will reach the 70 millions target but would just clarify that 19 millions is what they sold so far.
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:11 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Wronk. Dr Peters said nothing what you suggest. The claim was made by the guy who wrote the article.

This article contains direct statements from an Dr. Peters representatives. I posted it in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1440209&p=21983397#p21983397

N14AZ wrote:
Some more information from Dr. Peters about the parting-out: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1440209&p=21983397#p21983397

Wie steht es um die Fonds von Dr. Peters im Detail? Zwei A380 werden seit Ende 2018 zerlegt und sollen in Einzelteilen verkauft werden. Dies betrifft die Fonds DS 129 und DS 130. Mittlerweile seien alle verwertbaren Teile der beiden Flugzeuge ausgebaut, geprüft, verpackt sowie eingelagert und würden nun innerhalb des Komponentenverkaufs vermarktet, sagt Sebastian Podwojewski, Sprecher von Dr. Peters. Seit dem Verkaufsbeginn im Dezember 2018 hätten so schon mehr als 500 Teile veräußert werden können, wie die Fahrwerke sowie wesentliche Teile der Kabine und der Bordcomputer.

„Mit diesem Auftakt sind wir zufrieden“, sagt Podwojewski. Auch der erzielte Verkaufserlös von bislang zusammen gut 35 Millionen Dollar sei solide. Da der Komponentenverkauf auf mindestens zwei Jahre angelegt sei, könne man aber derzeit noch kein abschließendes Urteil abgeben. Hinzu kämen monatliche Einnahmen von rund 480.000 Dollar für jedes Flugzeug aus dem Vermieten der Triebwerke an den Motorenhersteller Rolls Royce.

Source: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/me ... 06974.html

Rough translation:
- parting-out started at the end of 2018
- now all utilizable parts have been removed, checked, packed and stored and are available on the market
- since December 2019 more than 500 parts have been sold, e.g. MLG, cabin and bord computers
- revenues so far 35 million US$*)
- however, process not yet completed, so final numbers for the revenues from parts not yet available
- on top, monthly revenues in the amount of 480,000 $ for the engines

aemoreira1981 wrote:
lhrnue wrote:
Did Dr. Peter's investors make money out of their investment. Those A380 investments where once the big thing after ship investments declined.


I believe about a 5 percent return for subsidiary DS Aviation. DP Aircraft is a separate division of Dr. Peters Group that leases Dreamliners, two B788s each to Norwegian and Thai Airways International. Also, keep in mind that the lease that SQ signed was with Airbus directly...probably to get these non-standard frames off the hands of Airbus. The leases were then traded around before ending up with DS Aviation.

That figure (5% vs. 7.25% as initally planned) has been mentioned in that article as well:

Auf diese Weise hätten beide Fondsgesellschaften im Sommer schon vollständig entschuldet werden können. Zudem hätten diese Fonds im Herbst ihre Auszahlungen mit 5 Prozent wieder aufnehmen können. Prospektgemäß hätten es jedoch 7,25 Prozent sein müssen. Im Frühjahr 2020 seien ebenfalls 5 Prozent vorgesehen. Die tatsächliche Auszahlung hänge aber von den Verkaufserlösen ab.


*) this value was for the two first A380s (003 and 005), so it somehow fits to the 19 million EUR sold so far for one airframe.
 
skystar767
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:26 pm

I said it from day one that this aircraft was not going to make it. It’s too big. Airbus wanted to out shine Boeing with the A380. ITs was a wast to tax payers money and time. So long and good bye. I did enjoy flying on her many times.
 
Jet-lagged
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:12 pm

When they part out an A380, are the pieces used only for other A380s, or can they be applied to other aircraft types?

I guess seats and toilet units and maybe galley components could be used elsewhere, but would they do that? Life vests and life boats?

Engines, landing gear, wing pieces, door and even tires I assume are A380 specific (but I don’t know).

Presumably there are less visible mechanical and electrical components, and maybe pieces of the cockpit, which are standard across airframes but again I don’t know.
 
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:29 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Well, just in case you missed it, we live in a new reality.
China is dealing with an epidemic of major proportions that is going to kill travel demand for a big chunk of the year in the largest growth market and who knows how it will play out over the coming months/years. Dozens of widebodies are being parked, the bottom is falling off the market.
In such a market, the A380 doesn't stand a chance as a people hauler or at least in theory.

Revisionist history at its best.

SQ, LH and AF made their decisions to retire frames long before coronavirus was a thing.

EK dropped its A380 orders in favor of A350 and B787 long before coronavirus was a thing.

Chinese airlines refused to order more than the five that CSA ordered long before coronavirus was a thing and while the Bullshit Castle was throwing hundreds of millions of euros of bribes a year.

You'll need to find a better way to explain away the market failure of the A380.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
ER757
Posts: 3782
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:48 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Several options available:

-Conversion to flying hospitals.
Haiti earthquakes, Ebola, Corona virus.
There is no lack of demand.

-Waterbombers

-Military applications. Airborne radar, maritime patrol, personnel mass-transport.

No lack of demand? If that were the case Hi-Fly would be running theirs constantly and not having it parked for weeks at a time. Other charter operators would have jumped at the chance to pick up 2nd hand units and none would be headed to the scrap heap. Since none of the above has occurred I'd say there most certainly is a lack of demand. I admire your tenacity in continuing to tout the advantages of the Big Bus. Really wish you were on to something since I am a huge fan of large flying machines. But alas, the age of the four holers is past....
 
skipness1E
Posts: 4779
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:46 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Several options available:

-Conversion to flying hospitals.
Haiti earthquakes, Ebola, Corona virus.
There is no lack of demand.

-Waterbombers

-Military applications. Airborne radar, maritime patrol, personnel mass-transport.

None of these are remotely credible.
There are too many other more suitable and cost effective playforms.
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 838
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:34 pm

It is a shame this aircraft was not more of a success.

Bigger is NOT always better I guess.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
Strato2
Posts: 541
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2016 3:52 pm

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:40 pm

VV wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
Wronk. Dr Peters said nothing what you suggest. The claim was made by the guy who wrote the article.



Does your statement imply that "Onward demand for the A380 is good"?


Let's stick to facts and not make up ones as we go along.
 
goosebayguy
Posts: 705
Joined: Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:12 pm

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:42 pm

If they can only get $17m for the spares then why not sell the complete aircraft for $17m? BA wpuld buy all they could get hold of.
 
Elementalism
Posts: 602
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:03 am

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:43 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
It is a shame this aircraft was not more of a success.

Bigger is NOT always better I guess.


Im curious if in 10-15 years a VLA like the A380 would be desired. But it would need to be reworked for 2 engine. I think the B777-10 may be the closest thing we will see.
 
cpd
Posts: 6367
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:52 pm

Revelation wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Well, just in case you missed it, we live in a new reality.
China is dealing with an epidemic of major proportions that is going to kill travel demand for a big chunk of the year in the largest growth market and who knows how it will play out over the coming months/years. Dozens of widebodies are being parked, the bottom is falling off the market.
In such a market, the A380 doesn't stand a chance as a people hauler or at least in theory.

Revisionist history at its best.

SQ, LH and AF made their decisions to retire frames long before coronavirus was a thing.

EK dropped its A380 orders in favor of A350 and B787 long before coronavirus was a thing.

Chinese airlines refused to order more than the five that CSA ordered long before coronavirus was a thing and while the Bullshit Castle was throwing hundreds of millions of euros of bribes a year.

You'll need to find a better way to explain away the market failure of the A380.


If coronavirus gets worse, the other large planes could be equally under threat.

I also bolded one part of your reply - please explain how you think that’s acceptable language and isn’t flame bait? Surely you can make your point without resorting to that kind of behaviour?
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10507
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 6:59 pm

cpd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Well, just in case you missed it, we live in a new reality.
China is dealing with an epidemic of major proportions that is going to kill travel demand for a big chunk of the year in the largest growth market and who knows how it will play out over the coming months/years. Dozens of widebodies are being parked, the bottom is falling off the market.
In such a market, the A380 doesn't stand a chance as a people hauler or at least in theory.

Revisionist history at its best.

SQ, LH and AF made their decisions to retire frames long before coronavirus was a thing.

EK dropped its A380 orders in favor of A350 and B787 long before coronavirus was a thing.

Chinese airlines refused to order more than the five that CSA ordered long before coronavirus was a thing and while the Bullshit Castle was throwing hundreds of millions of euros of bribes a year.

You'll need to find a better way to explain away the market failure of the A380.


If coronavirus gets worse, the other large planes could be equally under threat.

I also bolded one part of your reply - please explain how you think that’s acceptable language and isn’t flame bait? Surely you can make your point without resorting to that kind of behaviour?

“Bullshit castle” is how Tom Enders (Airbus’s former CEO) referred to the now dismantled internal sales organization responsible for the briberies.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 23899
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:29 pm

cpd wrote:
If coronavirus gets worse, the other large planes could be equally under threat.

If coronavirus gets worse, all of mankind could be equally under threat.

cpd wrote:
I also bolded one part of your reply - please explain how you think that’s acceptable language and isn’t flame bait? Surely you can make your point without resorting to that kind of behaviour?

It's the exact term that former Airbus CEO Tom Enders used to describe the Paris bribe shop ( ref: https://www.spiegel.de/international/bu ... 71533.html ) and is used in countless press articles, google it. Our forum rules actually allow use of strong language if the context is appropriate, and if Tom Enders thinks the context is appropriate so do I.

Polot wrote:
“Bullshit castle” is how Tom Enders (Airbus’s former CEO) referred to the now dismantled internal sales organization responsible for the briberies.

:checkmark:
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
VV
Posts: 1702
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:39 pm

Okay.

Let's do some arithmetic.

When the last A380 will be delivered in 2021, the will have been 251 aircraft delivered.

Two of the aircraft have already been decommissioned.

The reality is that the market for stuff collected for any A380 to be scrapped in the future is as large as whatever remains in the in-service fleet.

If a third one is scrapped then the cannibalization is only for the remaining 248. When the fifth aircraft will be dismantled the parts could only go to the remaining 246 and so on.

The market will be shrinking while the part donors park is growing. It is that simple.
 
airlineworker
Posts: 181
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:20 am

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:51 pm

The A380, the Edsel of the airliners. Had it not been for EK, the end would have come ten or so years ago.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1467
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:05 pm

N14AZ wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Well the cost is already low. If parting is worth 19 millions, then the aircraft is basically worth 19 millions.

19 millions is what they sold as spare parts SO FAR. It’s not yet completed. The parts sales process expected to take two years.

I am not saying they will reach the 70 millions target but would just clarify that 19 millions is what they sold so far.

The engines haven't yet been sold, because there is nearly 2 years to run on an inclusive supply / maintain contract. Can either buy out and sell immediately, or continue to make payments and generate income from engines rental (surplus), then sell at contract end. Have probably already entered into a conditional sale effective late 2021.
 
User avatar
N14AZ
Posts: 4137
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:09 pm

VV wrote:
Two of the aircraft have already been decommissioned.

Two have been scrapped but altogether 5 are out of operation as of today:
- 4 ex-SQ (5 have been decommissioned and one of them is now being operated by HiFly)
- 1 ex-AF

Not 100% sure about EK. According to the production list all of them are active but I think I had read here that two are being used for spare parts?
 
VV
Posts: 1702
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:01 pm

N14AZ wrote:
VV wrote:
Two of the aircraft have already been decommissioned.

Two have been scrapped but altogether 5 are out of operation as of today:
- 4 ex-SQ (5 have been decommissioned and one of them is now being operated by HiFly)
- 1 ex-AF

Not 100% sure about EK. According to the production list all of them are active but I think I had read here that two are being used for spare parts?


Wow, it is more interesting than I thought. Thanks for the additional details.

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