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DBCoop3r
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:38 pm

I wonder what airports are lamenting the day they decided to invest in A380 infrastructure, instead of new terminals and gates. All but a few global hubs?
 
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Aesma
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:48 pm

Apparently an A380 is bringing a second wave of French people from China, with room to spare being filled by other Europeans.
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CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:08 pm

May I suggest to search for EASA A380 AD's.
I think A380 MSN001-MSN040 are all up for scraping.
001-024 have non standard wiring with custom fixes. That is the minor problem.
The big problem is the structural integrity of the A380 wings, at least until the redesign.
In hindsight a wrong type of aluminium has been used. Many parts of the early build A380 wings are prone to cracks. Airbus isn't able or willing to develop a permanent fix.
Air France has most likely found cracks, and is unhappy with how Airbus deals with this. I think that is what drove Air France to completely get rid of A380's.
I sincerely hope that this is only limited to the first A380 build standard. AFAIK the AD's only apply to the first standard (out of 3 or 4).
 
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spinkid
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:45 pm

N14AZ wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Well the cost is already low. If parting is worth 19 millions, then the aircraft is basically worth 19 millions.

19 millions is what they sold as spare parts SO FAR. It’s not yet completed. The parts sales process expected to take two years.

I am not saying they will reach the 70 millions target but would just clarify that 19 millions is what they sold so far.


If that is all they can part them out for, somewhere between 20-70 million over a 2-3 year window, and sales will only go down as more A380 move on to the secondary market someone will try to find a sweet spot that they think they can pay to operate............something.
A few speciality ones are likely for an Air Hospital, Charters for large numbers of people..................Operating not often, but for Hajj, or Evacuation events., maybe as a state aircraft for a Gulf State or corrupt dictator.
Perhaps someone will refit the inside with all first class suites, or perhaps all economy suites of some kind.

I'm not sure the last two would make it far enough along to need multiple numbers of them however.
Likely it will live on for a while, but not in any great numbers.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:48 am

VV wrote:
The market will be shrinking while the part donors park is growing. It is that simple.

The real problem will be the consumable parts.

The fleet will now live off the donors and whatever new stock is on the shelves but this behavior discourages the manufacturers from keeping their production capability in place.

Given it's a small fleet the manufacturers won't be able to project a profit keeping the tools around hoping for an order.

Once the supply side is low the parts prices will get high and parking the planes will become even more attractive.
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VV
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:28 am

Revelation wrote:
...
Once the supply side is low the parts prices will get high and parking the planes will become even more attractive.


And the part will become more available, however the number of flying fleet is reduced further. That's correct.
 
giblets
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Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:17 am

I do wonder what price would make B.A go for them. Willie Walsh said earlier in 2019 he could see a need for 18 in the fleet (currently they have 12), but also seen mentioned in articles up to 10 extra (over the current 12).

Best options would probably be LH or SQ who maintain them in top condition, but possibly MH), with RR fleets.

If prices stay low or even drop, we are starting at $17m for an early example (with a glut coming prices unlikely to skyrocket), plus “$30-50m” for a refit you are looking at an A380 for $50-70m, not bad.

B.A are looking to swap over to the new club suites (so that’s sunk cost for the fleet anyhow) around 2025 (Qantas took 8weeks to upgrade the cabins in their A380s recently), along with D checks due, this could be an opportune time to get some other aircraft in their fleet.




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VV
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Re: Dr Peters:

Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:54 am

giblets wrote:
...
If prices stay low or even drop, we are starting at $17m for an early example (with a glut coming prices unlikely to skyrocket), plus “$30-50m” for a refit you are looking at an A380 for $50-70m, not bad.
...


If they can make money operating them then yes it is not bad.
But it is not only about acquisition cost.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Dr Peters:

Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:35 pm

giblets wrote:
B.A are looking to swap over to the new club suites (so that’s sunk cost for the fleet anyhow) around 2025 (Qantas took 8weeks to upgrade the cabins in their A380s recently), along with D checks due, this could be an opportune time to get some other aircraft in their fleet.


The A380 is part of the MSG 3 program and does not do D Checks.

Having that been said. . . I do not find it impossible to believe BA will eventually take on more A380s. If they find decent shaped ones (should be most given the low utilization rates) with like engines to their RR 900's, they would actually be able to make decent use of them to places like LAX, JFK & even HKG as that market recovers. But the price would have to be right. . .

That is speculation. But I do not see any reason to credibly say it could not happen.
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
 
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flee
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:55 pm

LH is returning 6x A380s with RR engines to Airbus. I wonder if IAG struck a deal to take them from Airbus at a bargain basement price...
 
alfa164
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:11 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Several options available:
-Conversion to flying hospitals.
Haiti earthquakes, Ebola, Corona virus.
There is no lack of demand.
-Waterbombers
-Military applications. Airborne radar, maritime patrol, personnel mass-transport.


With the prices falling so precipitously, I should soon be able to buy one and use it for my home. Or maybe an apartment building...

;)
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
alfa164
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:14 pm

Strato2 wrote:
VV wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
Wronk. Dr Peters said nothing what you suggest. The claim was made by the guy who wrote the article.

Does your statement imply that "Onward demand for the A380 is good"?

Let's stick to facts and not make up ones as we go along.


Then perhaps you could provide some, instead of just whining about other posts?


airlineworker wrote:
The A380, the Edsel of the airliners.


Interesting... they even bear a familiar resemblance...

;)
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
goosebayguy
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:41 pm

HAving just had three flights in a A380 I loved it. Will be a terrible shame to see them go.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:22 pm

airlineworker wrote:
The A380, the Edsel of the airliners. Had it not been for EK, the end would have come ten or so years ago.


Please don't diss the Edsel as it was named after the Chairman's son.

Maybe use the Ford Excursion, what was the largest SUV in production, built for just 5 years before getting cancelled.

Or the Chevy Volt, the car that was going to take over the market, only to be taken from the market.

Best yet, the Chevy Hummer H3, so the suburban housewife can dominate the Costco parking lot. It died in 2010, but like the A380 keeps coming back
It will be offered next year in an electric version. All that excess payload can now carry a ton of batteries.



Sorry for pulling your chain, this thread needed some humor though. Yes, Ford really blew it with the Edsel, it hit the market when styling was huge in Detroit, a new spring and fall collection fashion era. There was certainly a lot of vanity that pushed the A380 project. It forgot that biggest does not automatically make it the most profitable.
 
moa999
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:04 pm

Will the parts market even be that large?
EK seems likely to create its own.

Others with moderate sized fleets (eg. QF/SQ/BA) could choose to do the same.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:27 pm

Years ago I worked for an airline that put on and sole 515 coach seats from New York to Frankfurt. Rome and to Athens 6 days a week with 2 747's
Surely with 2 A380's a tour operator could sell seats from Asia to Hawaii or New York to Athens or Paris or even LA to Sydney or New Zealand or parts of Asia. This world is Big and has wonders many of us have not yet seen. Even though the A380 might not be good for One thing does NOT mean it's not good for EVERYTHING. It has a value and we need to find out what that value IS. The Airplane could fly MAC charters with an American operator It could and would be an Excellent flying Hospital like Project Mercy or Project Orbis Or for Doctors without Borders. It's a resource and we should find a purpose and fill it!
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:06 am

To point out something obvious, its fuel burn rules out more marginal activity. Operating A380 is a large financial commitment. It’s not just the purchase price but rather the operating cost that is prohibitive for lower tier uses.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:20 am

strfyr51 wrote:
It's a resource and we should find a purpose and fill it!

Thousands of old planes are resources. It just doesn't make financial sense, unfortunately. Don't you think if there was a business case they'd be all over it? Even something minimally profitable?
 
jfk777
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:07 am

What happens when Thai, Asiana, Malaysia and Korean ditch their A380's ? The only "successful" A380 airline in Asia has been Singapore Airlines. The airlines in Taiwan must be thanking their luck for not buying the whale, they have huge 77W fleets. The A380 was "engineering testosterone", another French airplane for the "Glory" of France.

The newest Airbus got it very "right", the A350 is a winner. Who would have ever thought that soon Japan Airlines, a loyal Boeing customer, will be flying A350-1000 on their flagship routes from Tokyo to JFK, LHR, CDG, SFO, LAX, SYD and ORD. JAL ordered 31 A350's. British Airways, which never flew long haul Airbus except A380, has 18 A350-1000 on order or flying already. It will be interesting to see if United does take their ordered 45 A350-900's. The A350 orders are huge with 20, 30 and 40 per airline common.
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: Dr Peters:

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:59 am

giblets wrote:
I do wonder what price would make B.A go for them. Willie Walsh said earlier in 2019 he could see a need for 18 in the fleet (currently they have 12), but also seen mentioned in articles up to 10 extra (over the current 12).

Best options would probably be LH or SQ who maintain them in top condition, but possibly MH), with RR fleets.

If prices stay low or even drop, we are starting at $17m for an early example (with a glut coming prices unlikely to skyrocket), plus “$30-50m” for a refit you are looking at an A380 for $50-70m, not bad.

B.A are looking to swap over to the new club suites (so that’s sunk cost for the fleet anyhow) around 2025 (Qantas took 8weeks to upgrade the cabins in their A380s recently), along with D checks due, this could be an opportune time to get some other aircraft in their fleet.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It looks like refitting an A380 is too costly for BA even if you sell the plane to them at $0.
 
filipinoavgeek
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:08 am

So what I'm getting is that the A380 is so uneconomical that even scrapping retired examples doesn't make much economic sense? I thought scrapping isn't only done for spare parts, but also so that the metal and other materials could be re-used in other industries, not necessarily aviation?

jfk777 wrote:
What happens when Thai, Asiana, Malaysia and Korean ditch their A380's ? The only "successful" A380 airline in Asia has been Singapore Airlines. The airlines in Taiwan must be thanking their luck for not buying the whale, they have huge 77W fleets. The A380 was "engineering testosterone", another French airplane for the "Glory" of France.

The newest Airbus got it very "right", the A350 is a winner. Who would have ever thought that soon Japan Airlines, a loyal Boeing customer, will be flying A350-1000 on their flagship routes from Tokyo to JFK, LHR, CDG, SFO, LAX, SYD and ORD. JAL ordered 31 A350's. British Airways, which never flew long haul Airbus except A380, has 18 A350-1000 on order or flying already. It will be interesting to see if United does take their ordered 45 A350-900's. The A350 orders are huge with 20, 30 and 40 per airline common.


I think it says a lot that Air France, the national airline of the country that is perhaps most associated with the A380 and maybe even Airbus as a whole, is the one that's retiring its entire fleet.

As for MH's birds, right now they're being used on the occasional charter or substitute flight; MH tried to rid of them years ago but couldn't get any takers. My guess is unless MH finds a buyer (which seems really unlikely at this point) then they're probably on a one-way ticket to the scrapyard. Thai's examples are still relatively new but given the airline's financial struggles they may not be long for this world: I can imagine that maybe they could keep one example for VIP purposes, but the rest will again probably be scrapped.
 
FGITD
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:11 am

filipinoavgeek wrote:

jfk777 wrote:
What happens when Thai, Asiana, Malaysia and Korean ditch their A380's ? The only "successful" A380 airline in Asia has been Singapore Airlines. The airlines in Taiwan must be thanking their luck for not buying the whale, they have huge 77W fleets. The A380 was "engineering testosterone", another French airplane for the "Glory" of France.


I think it says a lot that Air France, the national airline of the country that is perhaps most associated with the A380 and maybe even Airbus as a whole, is the one that's retiring its entire fleet.


Really? I always thought the general consensus was that AF was somewhat unwillingly dragged into the program. Given that AF also operated the 747 in its various forms for decades, and has one of the largest 777 fleets, I'd say it's a fairly inaccurate statement.

I'd say the most associated by far would be Emirates. They've based all their marketing around the 380 for years, they have so many, etc.

I have always enjoyed how on this site, when Airbus is doing well it's a great European consortium. When they're doing badly...it's an off brand, discount French manufacturer.
 
filipinoavgeek
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:28 am

FGITD wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:

jfk777 wrote:
What happens when Thai, Asiana, Malaysia and Korean ditch their A380's ? The only "successful" A380 airline in Asia has been Singapore Airlines. The airlines in Taiwan must be thanking their luck for not buying the whale, they have huge 77W fleets. The A380 was "engineering testosterone", another French airplane for the "Glory" of France.


I think it says a lot that Air France, the national airline of the country that is perhaps most associated with the A380 and maybe even Airbus as a whole, is the one that's retiring its entire fleet.


Really? I always thought the general consensus was that AF was somewhat unwillingly dragged into the program. Given that AF also operated the 747 in its various forms for decades, and has one of the largest 777 fleets, I'd say it's a fairly inaccurate statement.

I'd say the most associated by far would be Emirates. They've based all their marketing around the 380 for years, they have so many, etc.

I have always enjoyed how on this site, when Airbus is doing well it's a great European consortium. When they're doing badly...it's an off brand, discount French manufacturer.


I was referring to the country of France being associated with the A380 and Airbus in general, not Air France specifically.
 
alyusuph
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:59 am

janders wrote:
It does not take a genius to see that any business case for the A380 has been questionable for many years now.

After market values will only get worse as even more frames such as ones by EK are let go.


I predict the B77X case to baloon in the years to come
I am not an Airbus or Boeing fan, just an aircraft fan
 
hypercott
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:26 am

Hi, I'm not a frequent poster on airliners.net, but I've been around for about 15 years and I read almost every day. And I stay on top of recent trends in aviation. I do apologize for posting without detailed reference to the posts before this one in the thread.

While we're seeing (and have been seeing for 5-10+ years) a trend toward smaller frames that (i) allow for profitability in small(er) markets and (ii) for higher frequency, I think that there'll be a time when airports will be so maxed out on slots that in order to grow there'll be a trend back to capacity. This is likely 10 to 15 years away for many of the high-growth places (think Asia). By then both the 748 and the A380 will be out of production, but frames of their size and capability will be dearly needed. Kind of what we're now seeing with the 757 -- Boeing shut down production at a point at which there was little to no demand, but now there would be great demand for a 757 NG or NEO (NMA anyone? Luckily for Airbus, they have an A321 answer).
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:50 am

Revelation wrote:
cpd wrote:
If coronavirus gets worse, the other large planes could be equally under threat.

If coronavirus gets worse, all of mankind could be equally under threat.

Can we stop with the hysterics already?

We're talking about something with a ~2% fatality rate. The flu has a mortality rate several times that of this strain of Coronavirus.

Hell, the last famous Chinese coronavirus outbreak, whose result we called "SARS" in 2003, was of a more virulent strain than this one.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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calstanford
Posts: 65
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:33 pm

You don't know the fatality rate as you are dividing today's deaths (who got infected 2-4 weeks ago) with today's infections (which are still growing almost exponentially). So any fatality rate you claim here is by definition underreported.
 
brindabella
Posts: 620
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Dr Peters:

Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:29 pm

giblets wrote:
I do wonder what price would make B.A go for them. Willie Walsh said earlier in 2019 he could see a need for 18 in the fleet (currently they have 12), but also seen mentioned in articles up to 10 extra (over the current 12).

Best options would probably be LH or SQ who maintain them in top condition, but possibly MH), with RR fleets.

If prices stay low or even drop, we are starting at $17m for an early example (with a glut coming prices unlikely to skyrocket), plus “$30-50m” for a refit you are looking at an A380 for $50-70m, not bad.

B.A are looking to swap over to the new club suites (so that’s sunk cost for the fleet anyhow) around 2025 (Qantas took 8weeks to upgrade the cabins in their A380s recently), along with D checks due, this could be an opportune time to get some other aircraft in their fleet.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


For nostalgia's sake, I hope you are right.

But two bummers:

1) not too long ago, we were having identical discussions about the A340-500s and -600s. Bad outcome despite the magnificent (and new) airframes being cashiered.
Very sad.
2) I suspect Willie's ambitions have a "use-by" date.
I am reminded of AJ at QF pointing-out that he could fly 2 x 787s for less than 1 x A380.
= curtains for the A380.

:eek: :hissyfit: :crying: :crying:
Billy
 
brindabella
Posts: 620
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Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:19 pm

alyusuph wrote:
janders wrote:
It does not take a genius to see that any business case for the A380 has been questionable for many years now.

After market values will only get worse as even more frames such as ones by EK are let go.


I predict the B77X case to balloon in the years to come


Maybe ... can't help but think that the A350 and 787 - ESPECIALLY a re-engined 787-10 with a mid-life update would cause even the 777-9 a great deal of grief.
(And also the A350-900/1000, for that matter .. :D :D ).

To be explicit, I expect the re-engined 787-10 to be THE Killer App in the future widebody spectrum.

And then the original (and laudable) decision to make the A350 a competitor to BOTH the 787 and 777 will ultimately prove a (partially) false step.

That is, the A350 will suddenly be seen to be "far too much plane", as a re-engined 787-10 can do it all on a significantly smaller wing (and wingbox etc yada yada ..).
But the A350 got that big wing and structure to compete with the 777.

And, as above, I expect that will ultimately become a strategic mistake.

All for the best of reasons, of course ...
(sounds like the story of my life ... :eyepopping: )

cheers

(PS - I am a natural 777X fan - but I think the decision to look backwards and not give it the CFRP fuse was a tragic error.
Indefensible really - :sarcastic: trembling hands and shaky knees all around in Chicago.
May well doom a great frame to a very ordinary future. :ouch: )

(PPS- my underlying point is that the market-positioning of the 787 family is basically perfect.
Play chess anyone?
No matter how entertaining the game as it plays out, you must win.)


(PPPS -the 777X might find refuge from the marauding 787-10X as the 777-10 incarnation. While there is life, there is hope! :white: )
Billy
 
716131
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:49 am

How many A380s are being scrapped now?
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:02 am

SQ789 wrote:
How many A380s are being scrapped now?

So far two of them: MSN 003 and 005, both ex SQ and belonging, ehhhm, I mean the remaining parts, to Dr. Peters Group: viewtopic.php?t=1411791&start=200

MSN 040 seems to be the next candidate: viewtopic.php?t=1435517&start=150
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2167
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:51 am

brindabella wrote:
alyusuph wrote:
janders wrote:
It does not take a genius to see that any business case for the A380 has been questionable for many years now.

After market values will only get worse as even more frames such as ones by EK are let go.


I predict the B77X case to balloon in the years to come


Maybe ... can't help but think that the A350 and 787 - ESPECIALLY a re-engined 787-10 with a mid-life update would cause even the 777-9 a great deal of grief.
(And also the A350-900/1000, for that matter .. :D :D ).

To be explicit, I expect the re-engined 787-10 to be THE Killer App in the future widebody spectrum.
....
While there is life, there is hope! :white: )


30 years ago if the 767, MD11, and L1011 couldn't do a route, it was the 747 with its peak years producing 40 to 45 per year. Now the VLA's are gone and the market is 777, 787, 330, 350 all having the range for 75% of all city pairs, with members in this able to go further than ever before. A typical year is now 250+ frames. The current fleets basically can fly anywhere in the network, selecting 787-10's for its economics makes more sense now than ever.
 
alyusuph
Posts: 179
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 9:38 am

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:19 am

brindabella wrote:
alyusuph wrote:
janders wrote:
To be explicit, I expect the re-engined 787-10 to be THE Killer App in the future widebody spectrum.



OOh yes, especially If the 787-10 grows longer legs from re-engining/PIPS and probably Aux tanks, even beter they could go for 787-11 he, he, he, he
I am not an Airbus or Boeing fan, just an aircraft fan

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