FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3U LAX-TNA MAR 0.4>0.2[0.4]

4O CUN-JFK APR 0>0.7[1.1] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>0.7[0]

7H KOT-WBB MAR 0.3>0[0.3] APR 0.3>0[0.3] MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.2>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3] NOV 0.3>0[0.3]

Interesting...
**9K HTO-NYS MAY 0>0.5[0] JUN 0>3[0] JUL 0>3[0] AUG 0>3[0] SEP 0>0.8[0]
9K HVN-NYS JUN 0>0.5[0] JUL 0>0.5[0] AUG 0>0.5[0]

AA AGS-CLT JUN 6>5[6] JUL 6>5[6] AUG 6>5[6] SEP 6>5[6] OCT 6>5[6] NOV 6>5[6]
AA ASE-DFW JUN 3>1.9[1.8] JUL 3>2[2] AUG 3>2[2]
AA BNA-MIA MAY 3>2[3]
AA BTR-DFW JUL 7>6[6] AUG 7>6[6] SEP 7>6[6]
AA BWI-JFK MAY 4>1.0[1.0]
AA DFW-HOU JUN 8>9[8] JUL 8>9[8] AUG 8>9[8] SEP 8>9[8] OCT 8>9[8] NOV 8>9[6]
AA DFW-LRD JUL 5>4[5] AUG 5>4[5] SEP 5>4[4] OCT 5>4[5] NOV 5>4[5]
AA DFW-SGF SEP 7>8[7] OCT 7>8[7] NOV 7>8[7]
AA DFW-SNA NOV 8>9[8]
AA IAH-MIA JUN 5>6[5] JUL 5>6[5] AUG 5>6[5] SEP 5>6[5] OCT 5>6[5] NOV 5>6[5]
AA LAX-PEK MAR 0.9>0.1[0.8]
AA LAX-PVG MAR 1.0>0.1[0.9]
**AA LGA-OKC JUN 0>0.9[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0]
AA LGA-SAV MAY 0.3>0.1[0.3]
AA MIA-PNS MAY 3>4[3]
AA MIA-SAV MAY 2>3[2]
AA PHL-YUL MAY 2>4[5]
AA PIT-RDU JUN 1.0>1.9[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]

AC BOS-YVR SEP 0.4>1.0[0.5] OCT 0>0.4[0]
AC FLL-YYZ SEP 1.8>0.9[1.1]
AC HNL-YVR MAY 1.0>0.6[0.6] JUN 1.0>0.6[0.6]
AC IND-YYZ SEP 3>2[3] OCT 3>2[3]
AC LAS-YYZ OCT 2>3[3]
AC MCO-YOW SEP 0.2>0[0.3] OCT 0.5>0.2[0.3]
AC MCO-YYZ SEP 3>2[2]
AC OGG-YVR MAY 1.0>0.4[0.4] JUN 1.0>0.4[0.4]
AC PDX-YYZ OCT 0.8>0.4[0]
AC PVD-YYZ OCT 0.1>0.4[0.1]
AC SEA-YYZ OCT 1.0>1.4[1.0]
AC STL-YYZ SEP 4>2[4] OCT 4>2[4]

AJ FXE-GHB MAR 0>0.5[0.6]

**AM DEN-MEX MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0]
AM LAS-MEX JUN 1.3>1.0[1.3] JUL 1.3>1.0[1.4]

AN CLD-TSM APR 0>0.2[0]
AN HHR-TSM APR 0>0.2[0]

AR EZE-MIA MAY 2>1.6[2] JUN 2>1.6[2] JUL 2>1.4[2] AUG 2>1.5[1.9] SEP 2>1.4[1.9] OCT 2>1.4[1.8] NOV 2>1.5[1.8]

B6 BGI-JFK MAY 2>1.2[2]
B6 JFK-PSE MAR 1.0>0.5[1.0]
B6 SJU-TPA MAR 2.0>1.0[2.0]

CX HKG-JFK NOV 1.6>4[2]

DL ABE-DTW MAR 3>2[3]
Already getting cutback
*DL ATL-BOI SEP 1.0>0.7[0] OCT 1.0>0.7[0] NOV 1.0>0.7[0]
*DL ATL-BZN SEP 1.0>0.6[0] OCT 1.0>0.6[0] NOV 1.0>0.6[0]
DL ATL-GGT OCT 0.7>0.2[0.5]
DL ATL-LAX NOV 10>12[10]
**DL ATL-PVG MAR 0.9>0[0.9] APR 1.0>0[0.9]
*DL ATL-RNO SEP 1.0>0.6[0] OCT 1.0>0.6[0] NOV 1.0>0.6[0]
DL ATL-SFO SEP 9>8[6] OCT 9>8[6] NOV 8>7[6]
DL BGM-DTW MAR 3>2.0[3]
DL DTW-ITH MAR 2>1.8[3]
DL DTW-LAX SEP 8>7[6]
**DL DTW-PEK MAR 0.8>0[0.9]
**DL DTW-PKX APR 1.0>0[0]
**DL DTW-PVG MAR 1.0>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[1.0]
DL DTW-SCE MAR 3>2[3]
DL JFK-YVR MAY 0.7>0.9[0]
**DL LAX-PVG MAR 0.9>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[0.8]
**DL PEK-SEA MAR 0.7>0[1.0]
**DL PKX-SEA APR 1.0>0[0]
**DL PVG-SEA MAR 0.9>0[1.0] APR 1.0>0[0.9]

*F9 BOS-PHL MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]
*F9 ILG-MCO MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0]
*F9 LAX-PHL APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]
*F9 ORD-PHL MAY 0>0.2[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0]

J5 AGN-JNU JUL 2>3[2] AUG 1.7>2[3]
J5 HNS-JNU SEP 4>5[4]
J5 HNS-SGY APR 0.1>0.6[0.5]

PR MNL-SFO SEP 2>1.4[1.4] OCT 2>1.5[1.4]

UA CVG-ORD JUN 6>7[7] JUL 6>7[7] AUG 6>7[7]
UA DCA-EWR APR 11>12[7]
UA ELP-IAH MAR 6>5[6]
**UA EWR-HKG MAR 0.5>0.1[1.0]
**UA EWR-PEK MAR 1.0>0.1[1.0]
**UA EWR-PVG MAR 1.0>0.1[1.0]
UA GUC-IAH JUN 0.9>0.4[0.9]
**UA HKG-SFO MAR 1.9>1.1[1.0]
UA IAD-MDT JUN 2>4[3] JUL 2>4[3] AUG 2>4[3] SEP 2>4[3] OCT 2>4[3] NOV 2>4[3]
**UA IAD-PEK MAR 1.0>0.1[1.0]
UA IAH-MOB MAR 6>5[5]
UA IAH-YYZ APR 3>2[3] MAY 3>1.9[3]
**UA JAN-ORD MAY 0.3>1.0[1.0] JUN 0>1.0[0.2] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0.5>1.0[0]
**UA LAX-PVG MAR 0.9>0.5[1.0]
Wasn't this added a week or so ago? My bet is that this is the JAN-ORD airplane time. Perhaps JAN made a deal to save it at the cost of MFR?
**UA MFR-ORD JUN 0.9>0[0] JUL 1.0>0[0] AUG 0.5>0[0]
**UA ORD-PEK MAR 0.9>0.2[1.0]
UA ORD-PVD JUN 2>3[3] JUL 2>3[3] AUG 2>3[3]
UA ORD-PVG MAR 1.0>0.1[1.0]
UA ORD-RDU JUN 5>6[6] JUL 5>6[6]
*UA ORD-SAV JUN 1.2>3[3] JUL 1.0>3[3] AUG 1.9>3[3]
UA ORD-SYR JUN 4>5[5] JUL 4>5[5]
UA ORD-TVC JUN 5>6[4] JUL 5>6[4]
UA ORD-YYC APR 3>2[3] MAY 3>2[3]
Gonna be an AS monopoly airport before very long
**UA PAE-SFO MAR 3>0.4[0.1] APR 3>0[4] MAY 3>0[4] JUN 3>0[4] JUL 3>0[4] AUG 3>0[4] SEP 3>0[4] OCT 3>0[4] NOV 3>0[4]
UA PVG-SFO MAR 1.9>1.1[2]
UA SFO-YYZ APR 3>1.7[2] MAY 3>1.7[2]

WN BUF-DEN APR 0.6>0.9[0]
WN BWI-PUJ MAY 1.3>1.0[1.3]

WS HNL-YYC APR 0.3>0[0.3]
WS PHX-YYZ APR 0.5>0.2[0.5]

enilria wrote:

**AM DEN-MEX MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0]

Welcome back to DEN, AMX! This is actually a resumption of service, as they previously flew to DEN ~10 years ago.

KFTG wrote:

enilria wrote:

**AM DEN-MEX MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0]

Welcome back to DEN, AMX! This is actually a resumption of service, as they previously flew to DEN ~10 years ago.

Yeah, I remember that. This is interesting because AM's fleet is a mess as a result of the MAX. It's fairly surprising they found a plane for this. I wonder if Delta really wanted this to build their network presence in DEN.

enilria wrote:

KFTG wrote:

enilria wrote:

**AM DEN-MEX MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0]

Welcome back to DEN, AMX! This is actually a resumption of service, as they previously flew to DEN ~10 years ago.

Yeah, I remember that. This is interesting because AM's fleet is a mess as a result of the MAX. It's fairly surprising they found a plane for this. I wonder if Delta really wanted this to build their network presence in DEN.

AM has been (and currently is) running MEX-DEN service, it’s just that it comes and goes with no real regularity. It can be up to 2x daily over the holidays, and then it just completely disappears only to come back on random days. Yesterday was 2x daily, same with today, and then it’s like 1-2x the rest of the week.

KFTG wrote:

enilria wrote:

**AM DEN-MEX MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0]

Welcome back to DEN, AMX! This is actually a resumption of service, as they previously flew to DEN ~10 years ago.

They've been serving this route during the winter season since 2009. They previously flew it year round in 2017 but pulled it back down the next year.

Rdh3e wrote:

KFTG wrote:

enilria wrote:

**AM DEN-MEX MAY 0>0.3[0] JUN 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0]

Welcome back to DEN, AMX! This is actually a resumption of service, as they previously flew to DEN ~10 years ago.

They've been serving this route during the winter season since 2009. They previously flew it year round in 2017 but pulled it back down the next year.

I was going to say this can't be new as I am flying it at the end of Feb

With UA pulling SFO flights, and AS tinkering with schedules and routes, makes me wonder how PAE is doing in general. Anyone have any traffic stats?

AA (Eagle) will start LAX-SAF Saturday only eff. Apr 11. I don't recall seeing this in the OAG tape or the AA Jetwire but it must have been in there awhile as some of the flights have some good bookings already.

Also, JetSuiteX (which doesn't come up on the OAG) will start BFI-PDX 5 times daily effective Apr 2. JetSuiteX is growing quite a regional operation with their Embraer 135's.

UA PAE-SFO MAR 3>0.4[0.1] APR 3>0[4] MAY 3>0[4] JUN 3>0[4] JUL 3>0[4] AUG 3>0[4] SEP 3>0[4] OCT 3>0[4] NOV 3>0[4]

This is a real head-scratcher. One would think that having SFO on one end of this route would be a natural winner for UA.

joeblow10 wrote:

enilria wrote:

KFTG wrote:

Welcome back to DEN, AMX! This is actually a resumption of service, as they previously flew to DEN ~10 years ago.

Yeah, I remember that. This is interesting because AM's fleet is a mess as a result of the MAX. It's fairly surprising they found a plane for this. I wonder if Delta really wanted this to build their network presence in DEN.

AM has been (and currently is) running MEX-DEN service, it’s just that it comes and goes with no real regularity. It can be up to 2x daily over the holidays, and then it just completely disappears only to come back on random days. Yesterday was 2x daily, same with today, and then it’s like 1-2x the rest of the week.

Apparently it wasn't there a year earlier as it shows 0.

cschleic wrote:

With UA pulling SFO flights, and AS tinkering with schedules and routes, makes me wonder how PAE is doing in general. Anyone have any traffic stats?

I think loads are ok, but low yield on an RJ is also bad.

Chuska wrote:

AA (Eagle) will start LAX-SAF Saturday only eff. Apr 11. I don't recall seeing this in the OAG tape or the AA Jetwire but it must have been in there awhile as some of the flights have some good bookings already.

Also, JetSuiteX (which doesn't come up on the OAG) will start BFI-PDX 5 times daily effective Apr 2. JetSuiteX is growing quite a regional operation with their Embraer 135's.

Sat only domestic usually doesn't meet the minimum service req for the report.

jetblastdubai wrote:

UA PAE-SFO MAR 3>0.4[0.1] APR 3>0[4] MAY 3>0[4] JUN 3>0[4] JUL 3>0[4] AUG 3>0[4] SEP 3>0[4] OCT 3>0[4] NOV 3>0[4]

This is a real head-scratcher. One would think that having SFO on one end of this route would be a natural winner for UA.

They kept DEN.

AN CLD-TSM APR 0>0.2[0]
AN HHR-TSM APR 0>0.2[0]

Appears Taos Air is extending the above two routes for two more weeks, thru Apr 12. Previously due to end on Mar 29. The TSM-DAL and AUS routes still show ending on Mar 29.

**AA LGA-OKC JUN 0>0.9[0]...indef

Great to see this one again, this was a long time TWA route thru the 1970's. Don't think anyone has done it since.

enilria wrote:

*F9 LAX-PHL APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]

I believe F9 flew this in the early 2000s, as part of the LCC transcon expansion during that time.

Thanks for the very early release. Great to read every week.

enilria wrote:

AA PIT-RDU JUN 1.0>1.9[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]

Maybe AA's finally getting tired of other airlines entering their non-hub markets and expecting them to drop out.

phatfarmlines wrote:

enilria wrote:

*F9 LAX-PHL APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]

I believe F9 flew this in the early 2000s, as part of the LCC transcon expansion during that time.

Tes they did as I flew it eastbound overnight once and it was me and 11 other passengers. The funny thing was, I boarded last, and somebody was in my assigned seat LOL. Naturally I just sat elsewhere....

jetblastdubai wrote:

UA PAE-SFO MAR 3>0.4[0.1] APR 3>0[4] MAY 3>0[4] JUN 3>0[4] JUL 3>0[4] AUG 3>0[4] SEP 3>0[4] OCT 3>0[4] NOV 3>0[4]

This is a real head-scratcher. One would think that having SFO on one end of this route would be a natural winner for UA.

PAE-DEN is doing way better than SFO.
I can see UA adding an additional flight.
PAE-ORD wouldn't be a problem either one midday and one Red Eye probably would be a hit.
A stretch would be a daily Red eye PAE-EWR.

With AS doing a Non stop to a majority of that west coast destinations.
UA PAE-SFO feed is only bringing in so much demand with low international and onward SoCal connections.

Flyguy

AC in STL is going to bigger planes

wnflyguy wrote:

PAE-DEN is doing way better than SFO.
I can see UA adding an additional flight.
PAE-ORD wouldn't be a problem either one midday and one Red Eye probably would be a hit.
A stretch would be a daily Red eye PAE-EWR.

Flyguy

I feel you are quite right about the ORD. EWR, I would nix any thought of that.

IAH might be able to be worked into this on a very limited basis with a simple overfly of DEN on a couple of flights but why bother. United can just capitalize upon DEN as Paine’s gateway to much of the Midwest. I am glad to see they have found something that works for them.

enilria wrote:

AC BOS-YVR SEP 0.4>1.0[0.5] OCT 0>0.4[0]

Looks like AC is doing well with the BOS-YVR route. They start sometime mid June this year as per the schedule and expected to go until October 2020. Hopefully the route does well and AC expands it further.

Thank you enilria as always for all your hard work. This makes a great Sunday!

enilria wrote:

cschleic wrote:

With UA pulling SFO flights, and AS tinkering with schedules and routes, makes me wonder how PAE is doing in general. Anyone have any traffic stats?

I think loads are ok, but low yield on an RJ is also bad.

The average load since launch had been 60% in T100. The latest month of data (Oct) was only 51.6%... Truly terrible loads by today's standard.

tphuang wrote:

Thanks for the very early release. Great to read every week.

enilria wrote:

AA PIT-RDU JUN 1.0>1.9[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]

Maybe AA's finally getting tired of other airlines entering their non-hub markets and expecting them to drop out.

On another note, what is going on with the B6 reductions on JFK-BGI to 1.2? It has always been at least 1.8. They have a sole monopoly.

Care to advise?

stl07 wrote:

AC in STL is going to bigger planes

Yup. They loaded a bunch of other upgauges and corresponding frequency cuts on former Georgian routes last week.

Rdh3e wrote:

enilria wrote:

cschleic wrote:

With UA pulling SFO flights, and AS tinkering with schedules and routes, makes me wonder how PAE is doing in general. Anyone have any traffic stats?

I think loads are ok, but low yield on an RJ is also bad.

The average load since launch had been 60% in T100. The latest month of data (Oct) was only 51.6%... Truly terrible loads by today's standard.

Regarding enilria’s comments about PAE becoming an AS only airport, keep in mind WN wanted in. If UA don’t find a quick use for these slots, me thinks WN will want ‘em...assuming they can find the aircraft at present.

Dominion301 wrote:

Regarding enilria’s comments about PAE becoming an AS only airport, keep in mind WN wanted in. If UA don’t find a quick use for these slots, me thinks WN will want ‘em...assuming they can find the aircraft at present.

Incorrect, WN was in and they "cancelled" the service before it started by selling their holdings to AS...

https://www.flightglobal.com/networks/s ... 14.article

Dominion301 wrote:

Regarding enilria’s comments about PAE becoming an AS only airport, keep in mind WN wanted in. If UA don’t find a quick use for these slots, me thinks WN will want ‘em...assuming they can find the aircraft at present.

DL adding nonstop service to ATL, LAX, MSP, and SLC from PAE is also a possibility if UA pulls out of PAE as DL already serves some other secondary airports such as BUR, MDW, DAL, HOU, LGB, SWF, PHF, OAK, ONT, SNA, HPN, and ORH.

PAE is capable of handling mainline aircraft (maybe not widebodies). The E-175's could do PAE-ORD and maybe PAE-IAH, but definitely not PAE-EWR. But is there a market for those two connection points? If UA vacated/sold those slots, that opens 3 RT "slots" there. Perhaps AS could bring in mainline to Hawaii from PAE.

It will be interesting to see what happens next.

Dominion301 wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

enilria wrote:

I think loads are ok, but low yield on an RJ is also bad.

The average load since launch had been 60% in T100. The latest month of data (Oct) was only 51.6%... Truly terrible loads by today's standard.

Regarding enilria’s comments about PAE becoming an AS only airport, keep in mind WN wanted in. If UA don’t find a quick use for these slots, me thinks WN will want ‘em...assuming they can find the aircraft at present.

I’d assume WN would see this as a sign the routes there suck and have less interest.

tphuang wrote:

Thanks for the very early release. Great to read every week.

enilria wrote:

AA PIT-RDU JUN 1.0>1.9[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]

Maybe AA's finally getting tired of other airlines entering their non-hub markets and expecting them to drop out.

Thanks. I really should sleep more!

Would Delta look at PAE to SLC and MSP?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

jplatts wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

Regarding enilria’s comments about PAE becoming an AS only airport, keep in mind WN wanted in. If UA don’t find a quick use for these slots, me thinks WN will want ‘em...assuming they can find the aircraft at present.

DL adding nonstop service to ATL, LAX, MSP, and SLC from PAE is also a possibility if UA pulls out of PAE as DL already serves some other secondary airports such as BUR, MDW, DAL, HOU, LGB, SWF, PHF, OAK, ONT, SNA, HPN, and ORH.

No, I doubt it. DL isn't going to compete with its own growing SEA hub. It needs passenger volumes to justify larger, lower CASM aircraft. MDW, DAL, HOU and OAK don't have a DL hub nearby. That DL serves BUR/LGB/ONT/SNA and SWF/HPN just speaks to the fragmentation of the NYC and SoCal markets and miserable traffic.

Dominion301 wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

enilria wrote:

I think loads are ok, but low yield on an RJ is also bad.

The average load since launch had been 60% in T100. The latest month of data (Oct) was only 51.6%... Truly terrible loads by today's standard.

Regarding enilria’s comments about PAE becoming an AS only airport, keep in mind WN wanted in. If UA don’t find a quick use for these slots, me thinks WN will want ‘em...assuming they can find the aircraft at present.

WN originally had 5 slots at PAE then behind closed doors horse traded them for AS VX LGA and DCA perimeter slots.
WN is not going back into to PAE anytime soon I think now that AS has cut capacity at BLI to SEA only.
I can see WN adding service there getting the Vancouver BC feed.

Flyguy

jplatts wrote:

DL adding nonstop service to ATL, LAX, MSP, and SLC from PAE is also a possibility if UA pulls out of PAE as DL already serves some other secondary airports such as BUR, MDW, DAL, HOU, LGB, SWF, PHF, OAK, ONT, SNA, HPN, and ORH.

AA adding nonstop service to DFW, LAX, PHX, and ORD from PAE is also a possibility, if UA pulls out of PAE; as American surprisingly also serves a couple places in the United States, and maybe even the World too!

Really was a huge surprise to me too that American was even still flying! (;

wnflyguy wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

The average load since launch had been 60% in T100. The latest month of data (Oct) was only 51.6%... Truly terrible loads by today's standard.

Regarding enilria’s comments about PAE becoming an AS only airport, keep in mind WN wanted in. If UA don’t find a quick use for these slots, me thinks WN will want ‘em...assuming they can find the aircraft at present.

WN originally had 5 slots at PAE then behind closed doors horse traded them for AS VX LGA and DCA perimeter slots.
WN is not going back into to PAE anytime soon I think now that AS has cut capacity at BLI to SEA only.
I can see WN adding service there getting the Vancouver BC feed.

Flyguy

Do you have proof of the LGA/DCA assertion? Where did AS get the LGA slots to trade? What DCA slots?

Sure sounds like you're making things up...

ryby92 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Thanks for the very early release. Great to read every week.

enilria wrote:

AA PIT-RDU JUN 1.0>1.9[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]

Maybe AA's finally getting tired of other airlines entering their non-hub markets and expecting them to drop out.

On another note, what is going on with the B6 reductions on JFK-BGI to 1.2? It has always been at least 1.8. They have a sole monopoly.

Care to advise?

Who really cares, sometimes there are these 1 month cuts when demand is not there.

Cape Air--NYS/HTO-- This IS "Interesting". Has potential if price/schedule is good.

Rdh3e wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

Regarding enilria’s comments about PAE becoming an AS only airport, keep in mind WN wanted in. If UA don’t find a quick use for these slots, me thinks WN will want ‘em...assuming they can find the aircraft at present.

WN originally had 5 slots at PAE then behind closed doors horse traded them for AS VX LGA and DCA perimeter slots.
WN is not going back into to PAE anytime soon I think now that AS has cut capacity at BLI to SEA only.
I can see WN adding service there getting the Vancouver BC feed.

Flyguy

Do you have proof of the LGA/DCA assertion? Where did AS get the LGA slots to trade? What DCA slots?

Sure sounds like you're making things up...

AS got the LGA slots from the VX merger.

twaconnie wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

WN originally had 5 slots at PAE then behind closed doors horse traded them for AS VX LGA and DCA perimeter slots.
WN is not going back into to PAE anytime soon I think now that AS has cut capacity at BLI to SEA only.
I can see WN adding service there getting the Vancouver BC feed.

Flyguy

Do you have proof of the LGA/DCA assertion? Where did AS get the LGA slots to trade? What DCA slots?

Sure sounds like you're making things up...

AS got the LGA slots from the VX merger.

The timeline doesn't work.

Jan18 Southwest announces PAE
April 18 AS leases WN the LGA slots
November 18 WN sells the PAE slots to AS.

How could the LGA slots be part of the PAE deal when they were already gone? Doesn't make sense. And what DCA slots did AS give them???

BS and speculation is all this is. The companies never disclosured what the sale involved at PAE and it was likely a nominal sum. AS wouldn't trade very valuable DCA/LGA slots for movements at an unproven and untested PAE.

I agree with the poster who said DL wouldn’t pick attempt a PAE operation, but if they did, the A220 would be a great aircraft for the flights.

jetblastdubai wrote:

UA PAE-SFO MAR 3>0.4[0.1] APR 3>0[4] MAY 3>0[4] JUN 3>0[4] JUL 3>0[4] AUG 3>0[4] SEP 3>0[4] OCT 3>0[4] NOV 3>0[4]

This is a real head-scratcher. One would think that having SFO on one end of this route would be a natural winner for UA.

Not really. As someone who lives 15 minutes from PAE, I'll offer this perspective. People here are loyal to Alaska, so if your destination is actually SFO, AS tends to be the natural choice. If you want to connect to points east, the best and most logical options are AS via PDX, or UA via DEN. UA flying PAE-SFO doesn't really add anything to this market.

IIRC AM was painfully empty out of Denver at times and totally full others. Maybe going seasonally ? Summer and winter should work ,I can't remember I think it was 3/4 times a week last time also

KlimaBXsst wrote:

AA adding nonstop service to DFW, LAX, PHX, and ORD from PAE is also a possibility, if UA pulls out of PAE; as American surprisingly also serves a couple places in the United States, and maybe even the World too!

Really was a huge surprise to me too that American was even still flying! (;

While AA serves its DFW and ORD hubs but not DAL or MDW, AA does serve some other secondary airports such as BUR, HOU, LGB, OAK, ONT, SNA, HPN, and ORH.

I agree that AA adding service out of PAE to ORD, DFW, LAX, and PHX might be a possibility with AA already serving some other secondary airports.

I think either UA will move their slots to other destinations or it will go to AS. I doubt that AA or DL would fly to PAE...but you never know. Maybe G4 will a flight to PAE...afterall, they wanted PAE, but I think they were too slow in engaging or just changed their mind.

wedgetail737 wrote:

Maybe G4 will a flight to PAE...afterall, they wanted PAE, but I think they were too slow in engaging or just changed their mind.

I think they changed their mind when they realized it would be an upscale terminal lounge instead of an empty hangar with plastic chairs.

cs03 wrote:

Cape Air--NYS/HTO-- This IS "Interesting". Has potential if price/schedule is good.

Cape Air has a separate web page devoted to this service. A seaplane takeoff or landing from Manhattan could be a lot of fun.

https://www.capeair.com/seaplanes/

USAIRWAYS321 wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

Maybe G4 will a flight to PAE...afterall, they wanted PAE, but I think they were too slow in engaging or just changed their mind.

I think they changed their mind when they realized it would be an upscale terminal lounge instead of an empty hangar with plastic chairs.

Ha ha! Probably...

USAIRWAYS321 wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

Maybe G4 will a flight to PAE...afterall, they wanted PAE, but I think they were too slow in engaging or just changed their mind.

I think they changed their mind when they realized it would be an upscale terminal lounge instead of an empty hangar with plastic chairs.

G4 was actually the first airline with interest. They walked away because they wanted to build their own terminal and the airport/city refused to lease them the land below market value. This was all before propeller was in existence.

ryby92 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Thanks for the very early release. Great to read every week.

enilria wrote:

AA PIT-RDU JUN 1.0>1.9[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]

Maybe AA's finally getting tired of other airlines entering their non-hub markets and expecting them to drop out.

On another note, what is going on with the B6 reductions on JFK-BGI to 1.2? It has always been at least 1.8. They have a sole monopoly.

Care to advise?

I’m convinced there must be something going on in the background with B6 and BGI. Dropping FLL and then reducing JFK. Maybe the govt is no longer paying an MRG or providing less marketing support. Wouldn’t surprise me as BGI government seems to be tightening its belt.

Brickell305 wrote:

ryby92 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Thanks for the very early release. Great to read every week.


Maybe AA's finally getting tired of other airlines entering their non-hub markets and expecting them to drop out.

On another note, what is going on with the B6 reductions on JFK-BGI to 1.2? It has always been at least 1.8. They have a sole monopoly.

Care to advise?

I’m convinced there must be something going on in the background with B6 and BGI. Dropping FLL and then reducing JFK. Maybe the govt is no longer paying an MRG or providing less marketing support. Wouldn’t surprise me as BGI government seems to be tightening its belt.

Brickell,

They were at one time a total of 24 flights in total per week into BGI on B6 to now only 18 and this is before they eliminate FLL. By May if JFK is reduced they will be down to 12 inclusive of JFK BOS and EWR.

Meanwhile AA since winter 2018 is at 28 per week during peak season at BGI and they don't even fly to JFK.

Overall B6 seems to be isolating itself as a purely NY BOS airline with little breadth of scope. Very marginal at best.

Rdh3e wrote:

USAIRWAYS321 wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

Maybe G4 will a flight to PAE...afterall, they wanted PAE, but I think they were too slow in engaging or just changed their mind.

I think they changed their mind when they realized it would be an upscale terminal lounge instead of an empty hangar with plastic chairs.

G4 was actually the first airline with interest. They walked away because they wanted to build their own terminal and the airport/city refused to lease them the land below market value. This was all before propeller was in existence.

My post was a joke, but this aligns with it.

WA707atMSP wrote:

cs03 wrote:

Cape Air--NYS/HTO-- This IS "Interesting". Has potential if price/schedule is good.

Cape Air has a separate web page devoted to this service. A seaplane takeoff or landing from Manhattan could be a lot of fun.

https://www.capeair.com/seaplanes/

This is certainly a unique operation. Their next big fish to catch will be convincing the Boston Planning and Development Agency to approve flights in and out of Boston Harbor. They're facing a growing amount of local pushback but I really hope they can come to an agreement to allow the launch of BOS-NYC seaplane service.

enilria wrote:

Already getting cutback
*DL ATL-BOI SEP 1.0>0.7[0] OCT 1.0>0.7[0] NOV 1.0>0.7[0]
*DL ATL-BZN SEP 1.0>0.6[0] OCT 1.0>0.6[0] NOV 1.0>0.6[0]

Not too surprising to see these destinations reduced slightly during the shoulder season.

enilria wrote:

Wasn't this added a week or so ago? My bet is that this is the JAN-ORD airplane time. Perhaps JAN made a deal to save it at the cost of MFR?
**UA MFR-ORD JUN 0.9>0[0] JUL 1.0>0[0] AUG 0.5>0[0]

Odd to see ORD-MFR pulled so quickly. However, I doubt it's related to ORD-JAN returning. Different aircraft types, different regional operators, very different stage lengths, etc.