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ScottB
Posts: 6921
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/2/2020:AM Adds DEN-MEX; UA JAN-ORD Back In,MFR-ORD Out,PAE-SFO Out;9K Adds HTO,NYS;China Drops

Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:17 pm

PVD523 wrote:
Their next big fish to catch will be convincing the Boston Planning and Development Agency to approve flights in and out of Boston Harbor. They're facing a growing amount of local pushback but I really hope they can come to an agreement to allow the launch of BOS-NYC seaplane service.


That's not really within BPDA's purview. If anything, Massport would be the agency with the final say. And given that Logan is basically in the middle of the harbor, the advantage of a seaplane flight to the harbor would be minimal.

enilria wrote:
cschleic wrote:
With UA pulling SFO flights, and AS tinkering with schedules and routes, makes me wonder how PAE is doing in general. Anyone have any traffic stats?

I think loads are ok, but low yield on an RJ is also bad.


It's probably even worse if yields to PAE are lower than they are to SFO. There's no point in operating high-cost service to a niche spoke if you can get better yields on larger (lower unit cost) equipment to the main airport -- it's basically why the legacy carriers have little or no service to airports like HOU, MDW, AZA, TTN, ORH, SWF, etc.

tphuang wrote:
Thanks for the very early release. Great to read every week.

enilria wrote:
AA PIT-RDU JUN 1.0>1.9[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]

Maybe AA's finally getting tired of other airlines entering their non-hub markets and expecting them to drop out.


That's such a weird market to try to defend, though. It stuck around as US Express for a long time after the PIT hub was wound down although IIRC it was an at-risk route for Trans States, along with PIT-BDL and PIT-STL which are now gone. Obviously it wouldn't have retained service if it weren't reasonably profitable, but I also don't see the value in burning money to defend the market (it's likely not profitable for two players) outside the context of a broader strategic push at either of PIT or RDU. Maybe it fits with the resumption of RDU-BOS, but I really don't see DL retreating from their RDU focus city.
 
MO11
Posts: 1421
Joined: Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:07 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/2/2020:AM Adds DEN-MEX; UA JAN-ORD Back In,MFR-ORD Out,PAE-SFO Out;9K Adds HTO,NYS;China Drops

Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:44 pm

ScottB wrote:
PVD523 wrote:
Their next big fish to catch will be convincing the Boston Planning and Development Agency to approve flights in and out of Boston Harbor. They're facing a growing amount of local pushback but I really hope they can come to an agreement to allow the launch of BOS-NYC seaplane service.


That's not really within BPDA's purview. If anything, Massport would be the agency with the final say. And given that Logan is basically in the middle of the harbor, the advantage of a seaplane flight to the harbor would be minimal.


Actually it is. An article in the Globe last month indicated that the planned docking point, Waterboat Marina, is controlled by BPDA. The Marina would have to get its license amended to allow seaplanes. Opposition to operating seaplanes at Long Wharf is holding up the flights.
 
ScottB
Posts: 6921
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/2/2020:AM Adds DEN-MEX; UA JAN-ORD Back In,MFR-ORD Out,PAE-SFO Out;9K Adds HTO,NYS;China Drops

Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:47 pm

MO11 wrote:
Actually it is. An article in the Globe last month indicated that the planned docking point, Waterboat Marina, is controlled by BPDA. The Marina would have to get its license amended to allow seaplanes. Opposition to operating seaplanes at Long Wharf is holding up the flights.


That's not really approval to land in the Harbor. That's approval to use a specific dock...
 
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gunsontheroof
Posts: 3638
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2006 8:30 am

Re: OAG Changes 2/2/2020:AM Adds DEN-MEX; UA JAN-ORD Back In,MFR-ORD Out,PAE-SFO Out;9K Adds HTO,NYS;China Drops

Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:18 pm

Not terribly surprised to see UA drop PAE-SFO. With AS serving most of the onward connections non-stop and SFO itself, it's a tough proposition. I'd really like to see them take a swing at ORD with the 175. Bit of a dice roll, but it could be a winner.
Picked a hell of a week to quit sniffing glue.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5076
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/2/2020:AM Adds DEN-MEX; UA JAN-ORD Back In,MFR-ORD Out,PAE-SFO Out;9K Adds HTO,NYS;China Drops

Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:24 pm

i took a quick look at PAE vs SEA now that UA cut PAE-SFO. Here are the numbers from Q3. Let's just say this looks pretty bad.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield
PAEDEN 1036 OO 24408 161.07 160.36 176 95.49% 76 367 87.51% 140.33
SEADEN 1024 AS 158662 179.21 178.83 389.24 99.82% 160.8 1084 91.00% 162.74
SEADEN 1024 DL 80705 166.39 164.86 196.09 95.08% 123.2 713 91.90% 151.5
SEADEN 1024 F9 63222 85.43 85.43 0 100.00% 196.7 359 89.54% 76.5
SEADEN 1024 UA 161061 200.05 199.34 217.43 96.06% 165.7 1047 92.82% 185.04
SEADEN 1024 WN 121508 171.7 170.63 223.34 97.98% 160.7 853 88.66% 151.28
PAESFO 710 OO 36872 132.1 132.1 0 100.00% 76 706 68.72% 90.78
PAESFO 710 QX 17216 145.41 145.41 0 100.00% 76 300 75.51% 109.8
SEASFO 679 AS 270344 157.23 156.75 262.04 99.54% 160.9 2164 77.62% 121.67
SEASFO 679 DL 135804 150.36 150.06 308.97 99.81% 116.6 1419 82.08% 123.17
SEASFO 679 OO 583 228.31 167.75 440.28 77.78% 73.6 11 71.98% 120.74
SEASFO 679 QX 8851 171.71 171.1 229.33 98.94% 76 172 67.71% 115.85
SEASFO 679 UA 235073 187.98 188 176.37 99.80% 162.5 1764 81.99% 154.14
PAELAX 984 QX 42045 146.64 146.36 176.78 99.06% 76 660 83.82% 122.68
SEALAX 954 AS 348514 150.79 150.4 191.99 99.05% 166.4 2496 83.93% 126.23
SEALAX 954 CP 55714 200.62 198.88 260.68 97.18% 76 877 83.59% 166.24
SEALAX 954 DL 251650 161.26 160.49 233.3 98.94% 176.9 1682 84.55% 135.7
SEALAX 954 OO 12990 205.3 204.06 226.27 94.43% 75.8 194 88.39% 180.37
SEALAX 954 QX 926 206.01 199.55 249.75 87.12% 76 14 87.03% 173.67
SEALAX 954 UA 24546 163.75 162.22 174.66 87.72% 172 183 77.98% 126.49
PAELAS 894 QX 24150 148.22 147.96 166.71 98.63% 76 366 86.82% 128.46
SEALAS 867 AS 207144 142.09 141.85 182.88 99.42% 162.3 1453 87.86% 124.64
SEALAS 867 DL 126843 136.41 136.11 298.84 99.82% 160.5 910 86.84% 118.2
SEALAS 867 NK 114552 56.89 56.89 0 100.00% 190.9 708 84.75% 48.22
SEALAS 867 QX 933 174.02 174.36 171.22 89.25% 76 14 87.69% 152.89
SEALAS 867 WN 69025 132.89 131.15 160.2 94.02% 157 533 82.46% 108.15

At best, we have Horizon's yield about the same as the mainline yield. Maybe a little higher if we consider that mainline would have more connection itinerary, but margins would be a whole lot lower when we compare the cost of QX vs AS mainline.

The numbers for UA look even more disastrous. My theory on that is that UA's ff in DEN/SFO are less likely to know about PAE to fly into. Whereas AS ff are more likely to fly out of PAE if that's more convenient for them.

Also interesting looking at this quarter, DL has gone a lot more mainline on these major West coast market out of SEA. I have to say that their yield is looking a little better than the last time I checked.
 
mict
Posts: 292
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2011 10:19 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/2/2020:AM Adds DEN-MEX; UA JAN-ORD Back In,MFR-ORD Out,PAE-SFO Out;9K Adds HTO,NYS;China Drops

Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:47 am

What a shame UA is dropping SFO-PAE, I have flown the route quite a few times and it's so much more pleasant than arriving in SEA. Loads were always bad though, had a 100% upgrade rate just being UA Gold.
I think there is a lack of awareness of the convenience of PAE over SEA in general, a lot of my coworkers and friends in tech keep using SEA just because they don't know about PAE.
 
n7371f
Posts: 1802
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: OAG Changes 2/2/2020:AM Adds DEN-MEX; UA JAN-ORD Back In,MFR-ORD Out,PAE-SFO Out;9K Adds HTO,NYS;China Drops

Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:24 am

DL up to the most recent point in time had no interest in PAE. Conitnue to believe it will siphon off SEA traffic.

jplatts wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
Regarding enilria’s comments about PAE becoming an AS only airport, keep in mind WN wanted in. If UA don’t find a quick use for these slots, me thinks WN will want ‘em...assuming they can find the aircraft at present.


DL adding nonstop service to ATL, LAX, MSP, and SLC from PAE is also a possibility if UA pulls out of PAE as DL already serves some other secondary airports such as BUR, MDW, DAL, HOU, LGB, SWF, PHF, OAK, ONT, SNA, HPN, and ORH.

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