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qf789
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Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:15 pm

Ryanair has today revealed they have submitted an offer to Boeing on a new 737MAX order which includes the 737MAX10.

Currently Ryanair has 210 737MAX on order. They also plan to reprice the existing order. Nothing is expected to be confirmed until the 737MAX returns to service

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/mobile. ... SKBN1ZX1H9
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Richard28
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:26 pm

Good time to negotiate... they are owed millions in compensation no doubt, and will likely use that as leverage to get bigger discounts on new frames at a time when the max programme is struggling.
 
max999
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:29 pm

qf789 wrote:

Currently Ryanair has 210 737MAX on order. They also plan to reprice the existing order.


Very ballsy of Ryanair to try to reprice their existing 737 order. I guess Boeing is in such a weak position right now that customers can take advantage of the situation. Under normal circumstances, I don't think any airline would try something like that.
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:32 pm

MOL always goes in when the other side is weak. He will get a great deal on the existing order as well as on the possible new order. It is the right move to make, get new build aircraft dirt cheap. Calhoun needs a win and an Order for 50+ maybe even 100 MAX-10 would be a great thing to announce when the grounding is over, even if the frames are produced with 0 profit.
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:39 pm

Very smart of Mr O'Leary
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:49 pm

max999 wrote:
qf789 wrote:

Currently Ryanair has 210 737MAX on order. They also plan to reprice the existing order.


Very ballsy of Ryanair to try to reprice their existing 737 order. I guess Boeing is in such a weak position right now that customers can take advantage of the situation. Under normal circumstances, I don't think any airline would try something like that.

“Repricing” the current order is just a form of compensation for the grounding delays. Instead of Boeing giving them money it is applied as credit to future aircraft. Negotiations is just how much they get. There are a lot of airlines out there repricing their current orders.
 
TC957
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:03 pm

I'm sure lots of other airlines will jump on the bandwagon and follow FR's lead on screwing Boeing down on new MAX acquisition costs as well.
 
JayBCN
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:05 pm

The buyer making an offer ... is that really how it’s done ?

I believe MOL is getting this one wrong. Passengers are really concerned and really aware - and that includes the average person. Overheard this conversation in my holiday flight from CGN to LPA on Corendon flight XR 1304 on 1.1.2020 (Corendon has ordered the MAX): „honey, don’t worry this [737-800] is not one of the bad ones.“

Just another incident - related or not to the original issue - once the MAX is flying again and all airlines which fly even only a few MAXes are in deep trouble.
Last edited by JayBCN on Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:21 pm, edited 5 times in total.
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:07 pm

I’m surprised by this. I thought Ryanair were looking at A320neos?

Oh wait, no I’m not! :rotfl:
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:08 pm

JayBCN wrote:
The buyer making an offer ... is that really how it’s done ?


When the buyer has all the cards, why not?
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:09 pm

JayBCN wrote:
The buyer making an offer ... is that really how it’s done ?

Really funny...
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:13 pm

scbriml wrote:
JayBCN wrote:
The buyer making an offer ... is that really how it’s done ?


When the buyer has all the cards, why not?


The buyer doesn't have all the cards. Ryanair couldn't get 100 321Neos or A220s before 2025 now matter how much they begged. Who was the analyst a few weeks ago quoted as remarking the MAX is all there is?
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:21 pm

max999 wrote:
qf789 wrote:

Currently Ryanair has 210 737MAX on order. They also plan to reprice the existing order.


Very ballsy of Ryanair to try to reprice their existing 737 order. I guess Boeing is in such a weak position right now that customers can take advantage of the situation. Under normal circumstances, I don't think any airline would try something like that.


Is it? What's that backlog of AB's looking like these days? I suppose it would dependant on how long are they willing to wait for frames and why should AB slash their prices in a tight market. It makes for great investment print fodder.
Last edited by WaywardMemphian on Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:24 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
JayBCN wrote:
The buyer making an offer ... is that really how it’s done ?


When the buyer has all the cards, why not?


The buyer doesn't have all the cards. Ryanair couldn't get 100 321Neos or A220s before 2025 now matter how much they begged. Who was the analyst a few weeks ago quoted as remarking the MAX is all there is?


Sure, but I’m talking about the customer’s relationship with Boeing. Boeing’s MAX customers are in a position of strength in any deal. Ryanair seems to be saying “We’ll take 737-10s for the same price as those -8s we have on order.” Boeing’s in no position to play hardball with their second biggest 737 customer, are they? Ryanair’s recent “interest” in A320s was just a ploy to get Boeing’s attention.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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TC957
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:28 pm

JayBCN wrote:
The buyer making an offer ... is that really how it’s done ?

I believe MOL is getting this one wrong. Passengers are really concerned and really aware - and that includes the average person in the street. Overheard this conversation in my holiday flight from CGN to LPA on Corendon flight XR 1304 on 1.1.2020 (Corendon has ordered the MAX): „honey, don’t worry this [737-800] is not one of the bad ones.“

Just another incident once the MAX is flying again and airlines which do them and your Boeing-only airline is in trouble.

In the UK, every mention of the MAX in the press or on news websites has the mention of the two crashes killing 346 people and the long grounding and Ryanair won't get away with calling them 737-8200 or whatever else.
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:33 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
JayBCN wrote:
The buyer making an offer ... is that really how it’s done ?


When the buyer has all the cards, why not?


The buyer doesn't have all the cards. Ryanair couldn't get 100 321Neos or A220s before 2025 now matter how much they begged. Who was the analyst a few weeks ago quoted as remarking the MAX is all there is?

No, Ryanair still has leverage. They can sue the crap out of Boeing for all the delays and lost revenue. Or they can reprice.

Boeing set aside a lot of cash to throw at airlines but it's not nearly enough. They're gonna pay the rest in discounts

(I sound confident in this post but just like most people on this site, I could be completely wrong)
 
max999
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:38 pm

Polot wrote:
max999 wrote:
qf789 wrote:

Currently Ryanair has 210 737MAX on order. They also plan to reprice the existing order.


Very ballsy of Ryanair to try to reprice their existing 737 order. I guess Boeing is in such a weak position right now that customers can take advantage of the situation. Under normal circumstances, I don't think any airline would try something like that.

“Repricing” the current order is just a form of compensation for the grounding delays. Instead of Boeing giving them money it is applied as credit to future aircraft. Negotiations is just how much they get. There are a lot of airlines out there repricing their current orders.


Agreed. But my point about Boeing's weakened position still stands
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:39 pm

Upgauging parts of the order to -10 or adding more -8 would be a win for Boeing these days, even if they sold the -10 at -8 prices.
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:44 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
JayBCN wrote:
The buyer making an offer ... is that really how it’s done ?


When the buyer has all the cards, why not?


The buyer doesn't have all the cards. Ryanair couldn't get 100 321Neos or A220s before 2025 now matter how much they begged. Who was the analyst a few weeks ago quoted as remarking the MAX is all there is?


You are right in the sense, that with begging they will not get A321Neos but with paying enough cash I bet Airbus could play a bit with the order book and defer a few orders down the road. As an example: If Ryan air is willing to pay 5 million more than customer X for their order in 2023 Airbus will tell customer X that if they defer part of the the order to 2025 they will get a discount of 4 million.

Problem is, MOL will never pay more than necessary. He will also tell Boeing that he is more than willing to take second hand -800s and when the MAX is back in the air there will be a lot of them so Boeing will most probably strike a deal even if it favors Ryanair heavily and might hurt Boeing a lot. Still better than no order
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:46 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
max999 wrote:
qf789 wrote:

Currently Ryanair has 210 737MAX on order. They also plan to reprice the existing order.


Very ballsy of Ryanair to try to reprice their existing 737 order. I guess Boeing is in such a weak position right now that customers can take advantage of the situation. Under normal circumstances, I don't think any airline would try something like that.


Is it? What's that backlog of AB's looking like these days? I suppose it would dependant on how long are they willing to wait for frames and why should AB slash their prices in a tight market. It makes for great investment print fodder.


On the contrary, Ryanair does have a choice through its Laudair subsidiary. If I recall correctly, it was recently discussed on a.net that Laudair could be preparing for a major expansion of its existing A320 fleet. Because Ryanair could choose to expand through its subsidiary, they can continuing leveraging Boeing's weakened position.
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:51 pm

max999 wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
max999 wrote:

Very ballsy of Ryanair to try to reprice their existing 737 order. I guess Boeing is in such a weak position right now that customers can take advantage of the situation. Under normal circumstances, I don't think any airline would try something like that.


Is it? What's that backlog of AB's looking like these days? I suppose it would dependant on how long are they willing to wait for frames and why should AB slash their prices in a tight market. It makes for great investment print fodder.


On the contrary, Ryanair does have a choice through its Laudair subsidiary. If I recall correctly, it was recently discussed on a.net that Laudair could be preparing for a major expansion of its existing A320 fleet. Because Ryanair could choose to expand through its subsidiary, they can continuing leveraging Boeing's weakened position.


Very good point; Laudamotion is an EU based carrier, so it has the same unlimited access to EU airports as FR, so that's certainly card FR can play. I have no doubt that FR will absolutely screw Boeing on this. The Max issues have genuinely caused a lot of problems for FR.
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:53 pm

max999 wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
max999 wrote:

Very ballsy of Ryanair to try to reprice their existing 737 order. I guess Boeing is in such a weak position right now that customers can take advantage of the situation. Under normal circumstances, I don't think any airline would try something like that.


Is it? What's that backlog of AB's looking like these days? I suppose it would dependant on how long are they willing to wait for frames and why should AB slash their prices in a tight market. It makes for great investment print fodder.


On the contrary, Ryanair does have a choice through its Laudair subsidiary. If I recall correctly, it was recently discussed on a.net that Laudair could be preparing for a major expansion of its existing A320 fleet. Because Ryanair could choose to expand through its subsidiary, they can continuing leveraging Boeing's weakened position.



That's great and all but there are only so many production spots to be had and it still comes down to delivery timetable. It is the benefit of the duopoly. What if half the Max Customers decided to dump it and buy AB, how in the world would they ever get their orders. AB is already struggling with the issue. It is one thing to order and another to receive and when you want to take possession.
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:56 pm

max999 wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
max999 wrote:

Very ballsy of Ryanair to try to reprice their existing 737 order. I guess Boeing is in such a weak position right now that customers can take advantage of the situation. Under normal circumstances, I don't think any airline would try something like that.


Is it? What's that backlog of AB's looking like these days? I suppose it would dependant on how long are they willing to wait for frames and why should AB slash their prices in a tight market. It makes for great investment print fodder.


On the contrary, Ryanair does have a choice through its Laudair subsidiary. If I recall correctly, it was recently discussed on a.net that Laudair could be preparing for a major expansion of its existing A320 fleet. Because Ryanair could choose to expand through its subsidiary, they can continuing leveraging Boeing's weakened position.



There's still the issue of getting the planes when you want to get them. You can order however many you like, getting them is a different issue.
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:59 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
JayBCN wrote:
The buyer making an offer ... is that really how it’s done ?


When the buyer has all the cards, why not?


The buyer doesn't have all the cards. Ryanair couldn't get 100 321Neos or A220s before 2025 now matter how much they begged. Who was the analyst a few weeks ago quoted as remarking the MAX is all there is?

And you think Ryanair could get another 100 737MAX before 2025 (on top of current orders)?
 
morrisond
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:01 pm

This could be the start of the 1,500 -2,000 MAX's added to the backlog after RTS.

Say Ryanair takes 200-300, Plus the 200 for IAG, plus Southwest still needs to order another 500 to replace 737-700 - you get to 1,000 pretty quick.
 
SDL
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:11 pm

The question is what you get first 320 or 737. We have no Idea when the max is back in the air, Airbus can at least give a delivery time.
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:22 pm

The only news here is that MOL is saying out loud what others are thinking.

Anyone who is still looking to order will be smelling blood - you can leverage the turmoil at Boeing (new management's need to show a "turnaround") and the compensation talks into new airplanes at prices that would have been unthinkable pre-Jan 2019.

DeltaMD90 wrote:

(I sound confident in this post but just like most people on this site, I could be completely wrong)


Never stops anyone else, so run with it!
 
JayBCN
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:28 pm

morrisond wrote:
This could be the start of the 1,500 -2,000 MAX's added to the backlog after RTS.

Say Ryanair takes 200-300, Plus the 200 for IAG, plus Southwest still needs to order another 500 to replace 737-700 - you get to 1,000 pretty quick.


But this order of magnitude requires additional production facilities. Airbus could do that just as well - probably even better and faster.

Why on earth would anyone order anything that still smells like a MAX? That plane has died - maybe its makers too.
 
marcelh
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:35 pm

scbriml wrote:
Ryanair’s recent “interest” in A320s was just a ploy to get Boeing’s attention.

It wasn’t just a ploy, but for expansion of Laudamotion. Ryanair (the airline, not the group) has also stated they want to be a Boeing 737 only operator.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:43 pm

Time will tell if this ballsy or foolish. Never thought it would drag on this long, if there is not concrete information coming soon you have to wonder what other shoe is dropping in the background.
 
JayBCN
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:49 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
Time will tell if this ballsy or foolish. Never thought it would drag on this long, if there is not concrete information coming soon you have to wonder what other shoe is dropping in the background.


MOL is notorious for saying things he doesn’t mean or wouldn’t follow up with.
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:53 pm

JayBCN wrote:
morrisond wrote:
This could be the start of the 1,500 -2,000 MAX's added to the backlog after RTS.

Say Ryanair takes 200-300, Plus the 200 for IAG, plus Southwest still needs to order another 500 to replace 737-700 - you get to 1,000 pretty quick.


But this order of magnitude requires additional production facilities. Airbus could do that just as well - probably even better and faster.

Why on earth would anyone order anything that still smells like a MAX? That plane has died - maybe its makers too.


Repeat after me: “Nobody, except for a.netters and a few active pilots, knows the kind of plane they are flying. And, even if they knew, all the flying public cares about is the price of the ticket, not the kind of plane they are flying on. “

Take a deep breath and repeat again. Look, after a few repetitions, you will either be convinced that the MAX has no issues whatsoever upon RtS or you will be hyperventilating. Isn’t the first preferable?
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:03 pm

morrisond wrote:
This could be the start of the 1,500 -2,000 MAX's added to the backlog after RTS.

Say Ryanair takes 200-300, Plus the 200 for IAG, plus Southwest still needs to order another 500 to replace 737-700 - you get to 1,000 pretty quick.


On the day of the RTS Boeing will surely announce new orders by the hundreds.
 
StTim
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:07 pm

seahawk wrote:
morrisond wrote:
This could be the start of the 1,500 -2,000 MAX's added to the backlog after RTS.

Say Ryanair takes 200-300, Plus the 200 for IAG, plus Southwest still needs to order another 500 to replace 737-700 - you get to 1,000 pretty quick.


On the day of the RTS Boeing will surely announce new orders by the hundreds.


They may but my view is it is a very brave airline that will buy the MAX at this point. The plus point is they will get firesale prices to do so. The gamble is how long the flying public will not fly on the MAX. All it needs is a reasonable proportion to actively seek alternative options and it will hit those airlines flying the MAX very hard.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:16 pm

NonTechAvLover wrote:
JayBCN wrote:
morrisond wrote:
This could be the start of the 1,500 -2,000 MAX's added to the backlog after RTS.

Say Ryanair takes 200-300, Plus the 200 for IAG, plus Southwest still needs to order another 500 to replace 737-700 - you get to 1,000 pretty quick.


But this order of magnitude requires additional production facilities. Airbus could do that just as well - probably even better and faster.

Why on earth would anyone order anything that still smells like a MAX? That plane has died - maybe its makers too.


Repeat after me: “Nobody, except for a.netters and a few active pilots, knows the kind of plane they are flying. And, even if they knew, all the flying public cares about is the price of the ticket, not the kind of plane they are flying on. “

Take a deep breath and repeat again. Look, after a few repetitions, you will either be convinced that the MAX has no issues whatsoever upon RtS or you will be hyperventilating. Isn’t the first preferable?

Besides the condescending tone of your comment, you might forget we are in 2020 and every single mention of the 737 MAX in the media (and spread like wildfire by the so-called "social media") reminds the reader of the checkered past of the plane. People might not be able to identify what a 737 MAX really is, but they (at least the worrying types) will surely ask the gate agent what plane it is; and, if the plane agent (who acts on behalf of the airline, even if not an airline employee) lies to the passengers, this is have a snowballing effect with litigation and all.
If there was absolutely no issue with the name "737 MAX", why did Ryanair had their 737 MAX 200 repainted "737-8200"??? Only one reason: to hide from the public that the plane is a 737 MAX.

To quote your own comment: repeat after me, "do not underestimate the irrational fear of the flying public".
 
Antarius
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:20 pm

StTim wrote:
seahawk wrote:
morrisond wrote:
This could be the start of the 1,500 -2,000 MAX's added to the backlog after RTS.

Say Ryanair takes 200-300, Plus the 200 for IAG, plus Southwest still needs to order another 500 to replace 737-700 - you get to 1,000 pretty quick.


On the day of the RTS Boeing will surely announce new orders by the hundreds.


They may but my view is it is a very brave airline that will buy the MAX at this point. The plus point is they will get firesale prices to do so. The gamble is how long the flying public will not fly on the MAX. All it needs is a reasonable proportion to actively seek alternative options and it will hit those airlines flying the MAX very hard.


Once the mainstream news media stops covering it, it will be forgotten. Boeing likely will also rebrand.

People love to complain, but when the rubber meets the runway, they forgo all of their "i would never" and buy a 40 dollar ticket on Spirit/Ryanair. Price will dictate in the end.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
Antarius
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:21 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
NonTechAvLover wrote:
JayBCN wrote:

But this order of magnitude requires additional production facilities. Airbus could do that just as well - probably even better and faster.

Why on earth would anyone order anything that still smells like a MAX? That plane has died - maybe its makers too.


Repeat after me: “Nobody, except for a.netters and a few active pilots, knows the kind of plane they are flying. And, even if they knew, all the flying public cares about is the price of the ticket, not the kind of plane they are flying on. “

Take a deep breath and repeat again. Look, after a few repetitions, you will either be convinced that the MAX has no issues whatsoever upon RtS or you will be hyperventilating. Isn’t the first preferable?

Besides the condescending tone of your comment, you might forget we are in 2020 and every single mention of the 737 MAX in the media (and spread like wildfire by the so-called "social media") reminds the reader of the checkered past of the plane. People might not be able to identify what a 737 MAX really is, but they (at least the worrying types) will surely ask the gate agent what plane it is; and, if the plane agent (who acts on behalf of the airline, even if not an airline employee) lies to the passengers, this is have a snowballing effect with litigation and all.
If there was absolutely no issue with the name "737 MAX", why did Ryanair had their 737 MAX 200 repainted "737-8200"??? Only one reason: to hide from the public that the plane is a 737 MAX.

To quote your own comment: repeat after me, "do not underestimate the irrational fear of the flying public".


They will rebrand, the public will soon forget, the world will move on.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:26 pm

StTim wrote:
seahawk wrote:
morrisond wrote:
This could be the start of the 1,500 -2,000 MAX's added to the backlog after RTS.

Say Ryanair takes 200-300, Plus the 200 for IAG, plus Southwest still needs to order another 500 to replace 737-700 - you get to 1,000 pretty quick.


On the day of the RTS Boeing will surely announce new orders by the hundreds.


They may but my view is it is a very brave airline that will buy the MAX at this point. The plus point is they will get firesale prices to do so. The gamble is how long the flying public will not fly on the MAX. All it needs is a reasonable proportion to actively seek alternative options and it will hit those airlines flying the MAX very hard.


It does not matter, as a huge number of NGs and CEOs are ready for replacement after 2025 and Airbus is far from able to match the demand for new single aisle airliners alone, so airlines will have to buy the MAX, there is no choice. And if the option is to fly a 20 year old NG or a new MAX, the MAX still is better.
 
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:26 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
Time will tell if this ballsy or foolish. Never thought it would drag on this long, if there is not concrete information coming soon you have to wonder what other shoe is dropping in the background.


I wonder if the FAA etc. are still not satisfied with Boeing's current solution - and why isn't Boeing communicating better?
 
morrisond
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:28 pm

seahawk wrote:
morrisond wrote:
This could be the start of the 1,500 -2,000 MAX's added to the backlog after RTS.

Say Ryanair takes 200-300, Plus the 200 for IAG, plus Southwest still needs to order another 500 to replace 737-700 - you get to 1,000 pretty quick.


On the day of the RTS Boeing will surely announce new orders by the hundreds.


Actually the interesting thing is that by the end of 2020 the backlogs on 737/A320 could be a lot closer to parity than some realize and hence why not replacing the MAX so quickly may not be necessary.

At the end of 2019 Boeing still had 4,398 MAX to Deliver. Assume they deliver 300ish this year - that brings them down to 4,100. Add in another 1,500-2,000 and should easily be over 5,000 and possibly close to 6,000, Call it 5,000-6,100.

On the other hand Airbus was at 6,563 at the end of 2019. They will deliver about 720 this year - taking them down to 5,843. They just had a great order year and assuming they don't come down to Boeing MAX discount level (no need too) it may be a relatively quiet year leaving them with only 200-300 sales taking them back to about 6,150-6,250.

Airbus will most likely still have a bigger backlog than Boeing at the end of 2020 but the Gap may not be that large. Boeing barely delivering any in comparison in 2019 and the possible new big orders could shrink that Gap significantly.
 
Galwayman
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:28 pm

tphuang wrote:
Very smart of Mr O'Leary


Yes good for him - the incompetence at Boeing must not go unpunished or forgotten
 
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PW100
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:44 pm

TC957 wrote:
I'm sure lots of other airlines will jump on the bandwagon and follow FR's lead on screwing Boeing down on new MAX acquisition costs as well.


One wonders who exactly is screwing who here . . . ?
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
Antarius
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:47 pm

Galwayman wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Very smart of Mr O'Leary


Yes good for him - the incompetence at Boeing must not go unpunished or forgotten


:roll:

Cut off your nose to spite your face type, huh?
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
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scbriml
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:50 pm

morrisond wrote:
This could be the start of the 1,500 -2,000 MAX's added to the backlog after RTS.


You seem to have doubled your estimate of the drug-like rush to buy MAXes once they can fly again. If you're going to throw out numbers like that, you really need to provide a timeframe over which these orders will be placed.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
NonTechAvLover
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:53 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
NonTechAvLover wrote:
JayBCN wrote:

But this order of magnitude requires additional production facilities. Airbus could do that just as well - probably even better and faster.

Why on earth would anyone order anything that still smells like a MAX? That plane has died - maybe its makers too.


Repeat after me: “Nobody, except for a.netters and a few active pilots, knows the kind of plane they are flying. And, even if they knew, all the flying public cares about is the price of the ticket, not the kind of plane they are flying on. “

Take a deep breath and repeat again. Look, after a few repetitions, you will either be convinced that the MAX has no issues whatsoever upon RtS or you will be hyperventilating. Isn’t the first preferable?

Besides the condescending tone of your comment, you might forget we are in 2020 and every single mention of the 737 MAX in the media (and spread like wildfire by the so-called "social media") reminds the reader of the checkered past of the plane. People might not be able to identify what a 737 MAX really is, but they (at least the worrying types) will surely ask the gate agent what plane it is; and, if the plane agent (who acts on behalf of the airline, even if not an airline employee) lies to the passengers, this is have a snowballing effect with litigation and all.
If there was absolutely no issue with the name "737 MAX", why did Ryanair had their 737 MAX 200 repainted "737-8200"??? Only one reason: to hide from the public that the plane is a 737 MAX.

To quote your own comment: repeat after me, "do not underestimate the irrational fear of the flying public".


I write from the intersection of sarcasm and irrationality, not from condescension. A few weeks ago I wrote here that I would not take a MAX flight for a long while after RtS (hence my irrationality, in your words, but no offense taken, as I am comfortable with the idea that humans are a lot more irrational than they think). I realize that no poster is burdened with anything another poster said before, but there was another hint that my comment was a light-hearted jab at those who claim Boeing will have no issues with the MAX upon RtS: I said only a few pilots know what plane they were flying, which we can all agree can only be said jokingly.

So, I am sorry my sarcasm came across as condescension, but I have a bit of friendly advice as well: reading a post carefully again if the initial reading suggests a negative attribute may be a good idea, just in case the initial reading was mistaken.

Regards,
 
NonTechAvLover
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:58 pm

scbriml wrote:
morrisond wrote:
This could be the start of the 1,500 -2,000 MAX's added to the backlog after RTS.


You seem to have doubled your estimate of the drug-like rush to buy MAXes once they can fly again. If you're going to throw out numbers like that, you really need to provide a timeframe over which these orders will be placed.


While we are posting, I do not know after how many tens of times of looking at the second sentence of your motto (or whatever the statement that starts with time flying is called at the end of your posts) and smiling, thinking that I was appreciating the humor, I realized the real humor. It is incredibly funny and taught me that I am in the group that does not understand binary. My hat off!
Last edited by NonTechAvLover on Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
morrisond
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:58 pm

scbriml wrote:
morrisond wrote:
This could be the start of the 1,500 -2,000 MAX's added to the backlog after RTS.


You seem to have doubled your estimate of the drug-like rush to buy MAXes once they can fly again. If you're going to throw out numbers like that, you really need to provide a timeframe over which these orders will be placed.


I would assume these would be negotiated before RTS or slightly thereafter as part of the grounding compensation by the end of 2020.

IAG has already conditionally ordered 200

Ryanair could take 200-300 easily (they would need to order at least 375 to be all MAX with Future fleet growth 585-210) https://corporate.ryanair.com/ryanair-fleet/

Southwest stills needs to order 500 to replace 737-700 and they will need growth frames as well.

It's not that hard to get to pretty big numbers pretty quickly with just a few customers.

A lot may be unidentified before the public losses the fear of flying on the MAX - but the order book for the 2020's could be pretty full soon - assuming successful RTS.
 
WIederling
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:06 pm

max999 wrote:
qf789 wrote:

Currently Ryanair has 210 737MAX on order. They also plan to reprice the existing order.


Very ballsy of Ryanair to try to reprice their existing 737 order. I guess Boeing is in such a weak position right now that customers can take advantage of the situation. Under normal circumstances, I don't think any airline would try something like that.


ballsy?
Boeing at the moment has an uncertifiable base product and when that is fixed an additional holdup in the version they have promised to Ryan Air ( MAX200 ) due to contention about the evacuation performance required.
Murphy is an optimist
 
astuteman
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:21 pm

morrisond wrote:
scbriml wrote:
morrisond wrote:
This could be the start of the 1,500 -2,000 MAX's added to the backlog after RTS.


You seem to have doubled your estimate of the drug-like rush to buy MAXes once they can fly again. If you're going to throw out numbers like that, you really need to provide a timeframe over which these orders will be placed.


I would assume these would be negotiated before RTS or slightly thereafter as part of the grounding compensation by the end of 2020.

IAG has already conditionally ordered 200

Ryanair could take 200-300 easily (they would need to order at least 375 to be all MAX with Future fleet growth 585-210) https://corporate.ryanair.com/ryanair-fleet/

Southwest stills needs to order 500 to replace 737-700 and they will need growth frames as well.

It's not that hard to get to pretty big numbers pretty quickly with just a few customers.

A lot may be unidentified before the public losses the fear of flying on the MAX - but the order book for the 2020's could be pretty full soon - assuming successful RTS.


It's not that hard to get to pretty big numbers pretty quickly with just a few customers.
But you do have to take the top end bullish view of MAX orders and the bottom end bearish view of A320NEO orders to get remotely close to the "backlogs being close by the end of the year".
Not to mention incremental exaggeration every time the numbers are processed.
Airbus have secured an average of 800 orders per year over 9 years, and already have 100 x A320NEO family orders in the first month.

I do think the narrowbody market is beginning to soften as the widebody one has already done, so wouldn't necessarily expect 800 Airbus orders this year. But that softening will affect the MAX just the same as the NEO.

I'm quite comfortable with your assumptions of potential order numbers from FR, IAG and WN.
I'm a lot less convinced that they will all happen at short notice - WN have been "buying 500 MAX" since it was launched in 2011
There is also a sub-set of the NEO market that the 737-10 is never going to touch - the LR/XLR market

And I still think there will be a bevy of airlines out there not as robust as FR, IAG or WN that will take an opportunity to cancel or convert as their market softens.

It's equally easy to get to considerably smaller numbers, and a much larger backlog gap to the NEO, pretty quickly.
It is going to be interesting to watch.

Rgds
 
WIederling
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Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:47 pm

astuteman wrote:
But you do have to take the top end bullish view of MAX orders and the bottom end bearish view of A320NEO orders to get remotely close to the "backlogs being close by the end of the year".

Image

to produce a good match:
NEO numbers ~~ MAX numbers time 1.2, shift left by 1 year.
Obviously the match does not hold beyond 2018.

2019H2 brought in 450 A321XLR orders alone.
Murphy is an optimist

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