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TC957
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Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:16 pm

With the seeming unstoppable growth of Amazon, could an order for new freighters be in the works or do you think they will continue operating P2F airframes for the foreseeable future ?
 
DCA350
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:24 pm

Eventually, but now there is a glut of A330s coming on the market that would be ripe for P2F conversation. Amazon is still new to this so I expect measured growth.
 
Noshow
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:26 pm

They would be the ones I had hoped for to massively order 747-8Fs. But they didn't and now it might be too late.
 
amdiesen
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:29 pm

hypothesis: 764 GEnx new builds and 773erF conversions
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
DALMD80
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:31 pm

I hope that they operate A330 P2F conversions into BWI...
2 things- Wear a mask, and vote. It's that simple.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:43 pm

Baby steps folks..FedX, UPS and several others started out with used planes. Cheaper in the long run. cost to maintain, conversion vs new builds
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Momo1435
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:43 pm

The main new options right now are new 767-300F or the 777F.

When they opt for conversions instead they could also choose narrow bodies, as in more 737-800s. Or A321ceo conversions which are now also on the market.

But the big battle might become the one between the A330 and the 77W conversions. This is not an A vs. B competition, but more leasing conpany vs leasing company as they are the owners of these planes.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:49 pm

sunking737 wrote:
Baby steps folks..FedX, UPS and several others started out with used planes. Cheaper in the long run. cost to maintain, conversion vs new builds

They already have 50 conversions, both 767s and 737s. They have grown up very fast in the last couple of years they are active. If they want to keep on growing in the same rate buying new planes might be the best option, as they wouldn't have to rely on availability of available feed stock for conversions.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:52 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
The main new options right now are new 767-300F or the 777F.

When they opt for conversions instead they could also choose narrow bodies, as in more 737-800s. Or A321ceo conversions which are now also on the market.

But the big battle might become the one between the A330 and the 77W conversions. This is not an A vs. B competition, but more leasing conpany vs leasing company as they are the owners of these planes.


A330 conversions are certified and happening. EFW expects to convert 10 to 15 a year, both -200 and -300. The 777 conversions are still just in planing. Nobody has started on them.

In regards to new freighters, there are also A330F available.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:08 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
sunking737 wrote:
Baby steps folks..FedX, UPS and several others started out with used planes. Cheaper in the long run. cost to maintain, conversion vs new builds

They already have 50 conversions, both 767s and 737s. They have grown up very fast in the last couple of years they are active. If they want to keep on growing in the same rate buying new planes might be the best option, as they wouldn't have to rely on availability of available feed stock for conversions.


Depends on how big they want to get. Right now, ATSG has the feedstock optioned sufficient to lease Amazon another 26 767-300s, largely from the very-consistent fleet of retiring AA aircraft. Beyond that, probably another 5 or 6 existing 767s that could be dry-leased from the ATSG existing fleet. So that's over 30. And I could point to another dozen or so that they and Jetran could easily put their hands on if they wanted to, without getting too weird with onesies and twosies. Right now, Amazon has dry-leased 45 767s and 5 737s. Hard to imagine that even with a full-fledged sort in CVG in a couple of years, they're gonna need more than 75 767-300s. Smaller aircraft for the smaller cities, maybe, but 75 widebodies is a lot. I think they're stuck, because of their commitments to GECAS, with a certain number of 737-800s for now, but we'll see how that goes in the future.

At the higher tempo that Amazon is now operating its fleet, which I would expect to continue, it may be that some component of new-build freighters makes sense. However, I have to say that the two ATSG carriers, at least, have risen to the occasion as far as staffing and maintaining them. These old aircraft are purring along basically-just-fine, having come through a Peak where almost every aircraft, including spares, was committed to a line and operating multiple lines per day. They get some organized TLC during the non-Peak periods, then get run flat out during Peak. And right now, they seem to be doing fine. (Reliability and longevity would be the reasons to go with a new-build. FedEx and UPS keep a component of their fleet new, for high-utilization, and well-used, for surge and lower-utilization routes.)
 
bravotango75
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:21 pm

I am curious as to why are Amazons 737s painted in that eye-catching blue livery (one of the best that I have seen in recent years considering the Euro-White trend over the past few decades) and the 767s in the less remarkable "Euro-White" scheme?
 
32andBelow
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:33 pm

Noshow wrote:
They would be the ones I had hoped for to massively order 747-8Fs. But they didn't and now it might be too late.

Why Would they need 747s to move small boxes?
 
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impromark
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:39 pm

It's Amazon. They move small boxes, but a LOOOOOT of small boxes. I'm astounded at the worldwide airlift the overnight courier industry runs on a daily basis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3qfeoqErtY

Mark
 
BENFRANKLIN
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:47 pm

TC957 wrote:
With the seeming unstoppable growth of Amazon, could an order for new freighters be in the works or do you think they will continue operating P2F airframes for the foreseeable future ?

Amazon (Bezos) can pretty much do whatever he wants.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:53 pm

DCA350 wrote:
Eventually, but now there is a glut of A330s coming on the market that would be ripe for P2F conversation. Amazon is still new to this so I expect measured growth.

Seattle Times ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... 1-billion/ ) says that a US firm has bought out 22 A330ceo from EY and suggests they are proposing up to 16 A330-200 for the EFW freighter conversion, with Amazon as an obvious potential lease customer.
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YYZLGA
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:00 pm

This might be a stupid question. Since those types of parcel delivery services I believe tend to have fairly light but bulky cargo, I believe they reach the physical space limits of the aircraft long before they reach the maximum takeoff weight. For a company like Amazon, could there be a market for some kind of "Guppy" version of an existing airframe that increases internal volume while maintaining normal MTOW?
 
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Smoketrails
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:19 pm

YYZLGA wrote:
This might be a stupid question. Since those types of parcel delivery services I believe tend to have fairly light but bulky cargo, I believe they reach the physical space limits of the aircraft long before they reach the maximum takeoff weight. For a company like Amazon, could there be a market for some kind of "Guppy" version of an existing airframe that increases internal volume while maintaining normal MTOW?


No, as an extra floor will have to be added! This will bring the same problems as building/converting a cargo A380, something that has been discussed till death on this forum.
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:27 pm

I vote 747. please
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
Noshow
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:30 pm

Yes, because they move so many small boxes and do it globally. Hey, and they have the money.
 
MavyWavyATR
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:45 pm

I think they're gonna go for some smaller aircraft (ie: ATR Freighter, C208, etc.) in order to access certain places where their current fleet is too big.
 
IAmGaroott
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:50 pm

Revelation wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Eventually, but now there is a glut of A330s coming on the market that would be ripe for P2F conversation. Amazon is still new to this so I expect measured growth.

Seattle Times ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... 1-billion/ ) says that a US firm has bought out 22 A330ceo from EY and suggests they are proposing up to 16 A330-200 for the EFW freighter conversion, with Amazon as an obvious potential lease customer.


I have to imagine AAs A332s would be great P2F candidates. I cant see them operating that sub-fleet into the 2030s.
 
oldJoe
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:08 pm

Revelation wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Eventually, but now there is a glut of A330s coming on the market that would be ripe for P2F conversation. Amazon is still new to this so I expect measured growth.

Seattle Times ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... 1-billion/ ) says that a US firm has bought out 22 A330ceo from EY and suggests they are proposing up to 16 A330-200 for the EFW freighter conversion, with Amazon as an obvious potential lease customer.

Many thanks for the link. I`m surprised that they mention Amazon for the 330`s P2F. I thought they ( Amazon ) will go only for 767 P2F`s ? The prize for this amount of aircraft`s is a real bargain. EY sits in a corner.
 
superbizzy73
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:28 pm

I wonder if SkyCourier’s would have a future with them?
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:12 pm

oldJoe wrote:
Revelation wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
Eventually, but now there is a glut of A330s coming on the market that would be ripe for P2F conversation. Amazon is still new to this so I expect measured growth.

Seattle Times ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... 1-billion/ ) says that a US firm has bought out 22 A330ceo from EY and suggests they are proposing up to 16 A330-200 for the EFW freighter conversion, with Amazon as an obvious potential lease customer.

Many thanks for the link. I`m surprised that they mention Amazon for the 330`s P2F. I thought they ( Amazon ) will go only for 767 P2F`s ? The prize for this amount of aircraft`s is a real bargain. EY sits in a corner.


I'm doubtful Amazon will make their airlift providers take on the A330, and Altavair's media blurb is wishful thinking at best. At many stations there is limited parking spots for freighters and if they're going to lose numbers because of the wide A330 wingspan, they'd be better off putting a 773P2F for more lift in the same parking spot.

But that's introducing a new container size into the system. Right now they can be nimble with the huge 767 fleet and send them to any station (and change up routes at will). I see more 767 conversions for the forseeable future/
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mjoelnir
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:06 pm

YYZLGA wrote:
This might be a stupid question. Since those types of parcel delivery services I believe tend to have fairly light but bulky cargo, I believe they reach the physical space limits of the aircraft long before they reach the maximum takeoff weight. For a company like Amazon, could there be a market for some kind of "Guppy" version of an existing airframe that increases internal volume while maintaining normal MTOW?


Converting an A330-300 to freighter you get a lot of volume.

https://www.elbeflugzeugwerke.com/en/fr ... /a330-p2f/
 
USAirKid
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:25 pm

MavyWavyATR wrote:
I think they're gonna go for some smaller aircraft (ie: ATR Freighter, C208, etc.) in order to access certain places where their current fleet is too big.


Na. I expect that they'll just continue to hand that to UPS or use ground linehaul. A beauty of the Amazon system is they can show different arrival times to different customers for the same item, so you're in BFE? You won't get as aggressive an arrival time.
 
dstblj52
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:57 pm

Spacepope wrote:
oldJoe wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Seattle Times ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... 1-billion/ ) says that a US firm has bought out 22 A330ceo from EY and suggests they are proposing up to 16 A330-200 for the EFW freighter conversion, with Amazon as an obvious potential lease customer.

Many thanks for the link. I`m surprised that they mention Amazon for the 330`s P2F. I thought they ( Amazon ) will go only for 767 P2F`s ? The prize for this amount of aircraft`s is a real bargain. EY sits in a corner.


I'm doubtful Amazon will make their airlift providers take on the A330, and Altavair's media blurb is wishful thinking at best. At many stations there is limited parking spots for freighters and if they're going to lose numbers because of the wide A330 wingspan, they'd be better off putting a 773P2F for more lift in the same parking spot.

But that's introducing a new container size into the system. Right now they can be nimble with the huge 767 fleet and send them to any station (and change up routes at will). I see more 767 conversions for the forseeable future/

There are not a huge number of 767's left in good conditions that don't have crazy cycles or wear on them most of the people who like to keep a new fleet have already sold theirs and anything else is going to start with an expensive d check and 30+ years of airline service, I think we will see some conversions but a good third of the 767 in operations are already with cargo or ACMI operators so there are probably only 100-200 aircraft that make sense to convert left so I suspect we ill see carriers move to used A330's probably mostly 200 at first over time due to their low purchase price and the large numbers available and an easy upgrade path over time.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:18 pm

dstblj52 wrote:
There are not a huge number of 767's left in good conditions that don't have crazy cycles or wear on them most of the people who like to keep a new fleet have already sold theirs and anything else is going to start with an expensive d check and 30+ years of airline service, I think we will see some conversions but a good third of the 767 in operations are already with cargo or ACMI operators so there are probably only 100-200 aircraft that make sense to convert left so I suspect we ill see carriers move to used A330's probably mostly 200 at first over time due to their low purchase price and the large numbers available and an easy upgrade path over time.

The real question is, where are the customers?

Since this thread is about Amazon, I recommend reading #10, wjcandee follows Amazon's needs closely. They don't seem to be a likely A330 customer.

The other problem(s) are the biggest shippers are FX and UPS and they are already buying factory fresh 767Fs cheap, and a 77W conversion is in coming to market in the next few years.

EY's A330s may make good feed stock but the need is to find customers and I think the Amazon proposal is very speculative.
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Spacepope
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:18 pm

dstblj52 wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
oldJoe wrote:
Many thanks for the link. I`m surprised that they mention Amazon for the 330`s P2F. I thought they ( Amazon ) will go only for 767 P2F`s ? The prize for this amount of aircraft`s is a real bargain. EY sits in a corner.


I'm doubtful Amazon will make their airlift providers take on the A330, and Altavair's media blurb is wishful thinking at best. At many stations there is limited parking spots for freighters and if they're going to lose numbers because of the wide A330 wingspan, they'd be better off putting a 773P2F for more lift in the same parking spot.

But that's introducing a new container size into the system. Right now they can be nimble with the huge 767 fleet and send them to any station (and change up routes at will). I see more 767 conversions for the forseeable future/

There are not a huge number of 767's left in good conditions that don't have crazy cycles or wear on them most of the people who like to keep a new fleet have already sold theirs and anything else is going to start with an expensive d check and 30+ years of airline service, I think we will see some conversions but a good third of the 767 in operations are already with cargo or ACMI operators so there are probably only 100-200 aircraft that make sense to convert left so I suspect we ill see carriers move to used A330's probably mostly 200 at first over time due to their low purchase price and the large numbers available and an easy upgrade path over time.


I understand what you're saying and I used to think the same thing, however we've now seen ATSG sending airframes into conversion that have well over 110000 hours on the clock (but usually fewer than 20,000 cycles). Typical utilization for the Amazon leased 763s is around 3000 hours a year, so getting an additional 10-15 years service out of them isn't too difficult.
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jetblueguy22
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:25 am

Everybody likes to point out to the bulk out vs weight of packages like Amazon, but I don’t think anybody fully appreciates how many pieces from their sortable facilities they can put on one aircraft. It’s huge.

The efficiency of the Amazon model is being able to fulfill most products in the local market using a handful of FCs that can ground feed. They move a ton by air for sure, but the majority of their products can be ground fed.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:29 am

MavyWavyATR wrote:
I think they're gonna go for some smaller aircraft (ie: ATR Freighter, C208, etc.) in order to access certain places where their current fleet is too big.

Not a shot. Any location that requires only an ATR or C208 is serviced cheaper by UPS/USPS.

Final mile is the most expensive part of the delivery cycle. It works for them in metro areas because the distance between stops is minimal. I bet my driver makes 3 stops on my tiny street alone. When you’re talking a place like FAR, that would most likely see a feeder aircraft type of airplane, the density isn’t there. Better to give it to someone giving you a sweetheart rate and is already in the area.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:02 am

superbizzy73 wrote:
I wonder if SkyCourier’s would have a future with them?


It has potential where short trips from the main airport are needed that are difficult by truck. Islands, Alaska, bad traffic. But it carries only 3 containers about 500 miles.
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:22 am

747-8F? Large space for many packages, high weight capacity, and most of all, 4 engines 4 more packages.
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
USAirKid
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:01 am

jetblueguy22 wrote:
MavyWavyATR wrote:
I think they're gonna go for some smaller aircraft (ie: ATR Freighter, C208, etc.) in order to access certain places where their current fleet is too big.

Not a shot. Any location that requires only an ATR or C208 is serviced cheaper by UPS/USPS.

Final mile is the most expensive part of the delivery cycle. It works for them in metro areas because the distance between stops is minimal. I bet my driver makes 3 stops on my tiny street alone. When you’re talking a place like FAR, that would most likely see a feeder aircraft type of airplane, the density isn’t there. Better to give it to someone giving you a sweetheart rate and is already in the area.


One of the things I pondered a bit, is if Amazon would be interested in sharing UPS's ATR/C208 flights? I could see this as a way of keeping some more of the overnight packages in house, and UPS could get some additional revenue/reduced costs.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:18 am

USAirKid wrote:
jetblueguy22 wrote:
MavyWavyATR wrote:
I think they're gonna go for some smaller aircraft (ie: ATR Freighter, C208, etc.) in order to access certain places where their current fleet is too big.

Not a shot. Any location that requires only an ATR or C208 is serviced cheaper by UPS/USPS.

Final mile is the most expensive part of the delivery cycle. It works for them in metro areas because the distance between stops is minimal. I bet my driver makes 3 stops on my tiny street alone. When you’re talking a place like FAR, that would most likely see a feeder aircraft type of airplane, the density isn’t there. Better to give it to someone giving you a sweetheart rate and is already in the area.


One of the things I pondered a bit, is if Amazon would be interested in sharing UPS's ATR/C208 flights? I could see this as a way of keeping some more of the overnight packages in house, and UPS could get some additional revenue/reduced costs.


They already do. Always carried loads of Amazon shipments when flying cargo ATRs on the UPS network.
 
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Harvestman
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:02 am

Spacepope wrote:
But that's introducing a new container size into the system. Right now they can be nimble with the huge 767 fleet and send them to any station (and change up routes at will). I see more 767 conversions for the forseeable future/

Thank you for mentioning container size. Upgrading to larger containers is not a small, quick or easy feat. It took them a while for them to set up their sort for LAY cans when they were introduced after their AAXes, DQFs, and pallets. Plus no container manufacturer could push them out as quickly as Amazon would like.
 
USAirKid
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:36 am

VSMUT wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
jetblueguy22 wrote:
Not a shot. Any location that requires only an ATR or C208 is serviced cheaper by UPS/USPS.

Final mile is the most expensive part of the delivery cycle. It works for them in metro areas because the distance between stops is minimal. I bet my driver makes 3 stops on my tiny street alone. When you’re talking a place like FAR, that would most likely see a feeder aircraft type of airplane, the density isn’t there. Better to give it to someone giving you a sweetheart rate and is already in the area.


One of the things I pondered a bit, is if Amazon would be interested in sharing UPS's ATR/C208 flights? I could see this as a way of keeping some more of the overnight packages in house, and UPS could get some additional revenue/reduced costs.


They already do. Always carried loads of Amazon shipments when flying cargo ATRs on the UPS network.


I was thinking more along the lines that Amazon would tender a whole container to be flown in an ATR, then take possession of the whole container at the destination for injection into USPS or Amazon Fulfillment. Not labeled as an individual UPS package.
 
A330Inter
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:37 am

Does Amazon own the planes or Atlas does? What is Atlas role in this operation? (and ASL in Europe for that matter)

Right now if Im correct most of the Amazon air freight operates in US but they have room to grow massively in other parts of the world just like FedEx and UPS are currently spread worldwide.
 
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Polot
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:13 pm

A330Inter wrote:
Does Amazon own the planes or Atlas does? What is Atlas role in this operation? (and ASL in Europe for that matter)

Amazon Air is a virtual airline. They do not have their own operating certificate, all the flying is contracted out to various different airlines. Atlas is just one of the airlines Amazon subcontracts from. Amazon leases the planes. I think Amazon owns (or rather leases) some of the planes directly (specifically the 737s) then leases out to airline. It is all similar to how regional carriers work in the US.

ASL does the same thing for DHL and FedEx in Europe- it is contracted flying on their behalf.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:15 pm

A330Inter wrote:
Does Amazon own the planes or Atlas does? What is Atlas role in this operation? (and ASL in Europe for that matter)

Right now if Im correct most of the Amazon air freight operates in US but they have room to grow massively in other parts of the world just like FedEx and UPS are currently spread worldwide.


Atlas flies 18 of the 763s for the Amazon operation. They had been flying up to 20 last year but have had 2 aircraft pulled from them by Amazon and given to ATSG/CAM. There, 2 airlines (ABX and ATI) fly the rest of the 763s and a dozen 762s for Amazon.

On the 737 side, the first 5 are crewed by Southern, with the last 15 coming online to be flown by Sun Country pilots.
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:30 pm

BENFRANKLIN wrote:
TC957 wrote:
With the seeming unstoppable growth of Amazon, could an order for new freighters be in the works or do you think they will continue operating P2F airframes for the foreseeable future ?

Amazon (Bezos) can pretty much do whatever he wants.


So he can buy Boeing!
 
ILNFlyer
Posts: 516
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:34 pm

Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:40 pm

Revelation wrote:
dstblj52 wrote:
There are not a huge number of 767's left in good conditions that don't have crazy cycles or wear on them most of the people who like to keep a new fleet have already sold theirs and anything else is going to start with an expensive d check and 30+ years of airline service, I think we will see some conversions but a good third of the 767 in operations are already with cargo or ACMI operators so there are probably only 100-200 aircraft that make sense to convert left so I suspect we ill see carriers move to used A330's probably mostly 200 at first over time due to their low purchase price and the large numbers available and an easy upgrade path over time.

The real question is, where are the customers?

Since this thread is about Amazon, I recommend reading #10, wjcandee follows Amazon's needs closely. They don't seem to be a likely A330 customer.

The other problem(s) are the biggest shippers are FX and UPS and they are already buying factory fresh 767Fs cheap, and a 77W conversion is in coming to market in the next few years.

EY's A330s may make good feed stock but the need is to find customers and I think the Amazon proposal is very speculative.


Not to mention the fact Amazon has a high level of interest in the A321P2F program as well. ATSG also has a vested interest in this program and has invested in Precision Aircraft Solutions conversion program for the type. Since ATSG provides lift for Amazon, it is likely Amazon will use the type through this type of vendor arrangement.

http://www.precisionaircraft.com/conversions/
 
OB1504
Posts: 3962
Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2004 5:10 am

Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:45 pm

Spacepope wrote:
A330Inter wrote:
Does Amazon own the planes or Atlas does? What is Atlas role in this operation? (and ASL in Europe for that matter)

Right now if Im correct most of the Amazon air freight operates in US but they have room to grow massively in other parts of the world just like FedEx and UPS are currently spread worldwide.


Atlas flies 18 of the 763s for the Amazon operation. They had been flying up to 20 last year but have had 2 aircraft pulled from them by Amazon and given to ATSG/CAM. There, 2 airlines (ABX and ATI) fly the rest of the 763s and a dozen 762s for Amazon.

On the 737 side, the first 5 are crewed by Southern, with the last 15 coming online to be flown by Sun Country pilots.


Why did Atlas have 2 aircraft pulled? Did it have anything to do with last year’s crash?
 
USAirKid
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:04 am

Polot wrote:
A330Inter wrote:
Does Amazon own the planes or Atlas does? What is Atlas role in this operation? (and ASL in Europe for that matter)

Amazon Air is a virtual airline. They do not have their own operating certificate, all the flying is contracted out to various different airlines. Atlas is just one of the airlines Amazon subcontracts from. Amazon leases the planes. I think Amazon owns (or rather leases) some of the planes directly (specifically the 737s) then leases out to airline. It is all similar to how regional carriers work in the US.

ASL does the same thing for DHL and FedEx in Europe- it is contracted flying on their behalf.


This has been discussed in the Amazon thread. Amazon dry leases all of their planes from other owners, then engaged airlines with an AMCI contract to fly the planes. (ABX, Atlas, Southern, ATI, and Sun Country are the operators in the US.)

Amazon can remove any individual plane with minimal notice. (90 days I believe.)
 
VSMUT
Posts: 4430
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:25 am

USAirKid wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
USAirKid wrote:

One of the things I pondered a bit, is if Amazon would be interested in sharing UPS's ATR/C208 flights? I could see this as a way of keeping some more of the overnight packages in house, and UPS could get some additional revenue/reduced costs.


They already do. Always carried loads of Amazon shipments when flying cargo ATRs on the UPS network.


I was thinking more along the lines that Amazon would tender a whole container to be flown in an ATR, then take possession of the whole container at the destination for injection into USPS or Amazon Fulfillment. Not labeled as an individual UPS package.


UPS doesn't do containers in ATRs. They bulk load them.
 
Sokes
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:55 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
When you’re talking a place like FAR, that would most likely see a feeder aircraft type of airplane, the density isn’t there. Better to give it to someone giving you a sweetheart rate and is already in the area.


At least in low population density areas air fright calls for technical monopoly. But even for big cities it's better to send one B777F instead of two B767s.
I also believe Amazon doesn't require overnight deliveries for books ...
Better if they send it with passenger planes like the A330-300/ -900 with a two days delivery service. Would airlines be interested if Amazon offers to rent 70% of the cargo compartment for 12 years on a certain route?
It's quite possible that a B777-300 ERSF flying East coast to West coast back and forth makes sense. Otherwise economies of scales suggest to me they are better of if they outsource air freight.

"In October 2019, Boeing and IAI launched the 777-300ERSF passenger to freighter conversion program with GECAS ordering 15 aircraft and 15 options, the first aftermarket 777 freighter conversion program. The converted aircraft has a maximum payload of 224,000 lb (101.6 t), a range of 4,500 nmi (8,300 km) and shares the door aperture and aft position of the 777F. It has a cargo volume capacity of 28,900 cu ft (819 m3), 5,800 cb ft (164 cb m) greater than the 777F and can hold 47 standard 96 x 125 in pallet (P6P) positions, 10 more positions than a 777-200LRF or eight more than a 747-400F. Within the 811 777-300ERs delivered and 33 to be delivered, GECAS anticipates up to 150-175 orders through 2030, the four to five months conversion costs around $35m. IAI will receive the first aircraft in December 2020 while certification and service entry is scheduled for late 2022.[211]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_77 ... ighter_(SF)

New freighters? As new freighters are usually the shorter model and Amazon needs volume I doubt it.
I don't know about Amazon's intercontinental traffic needs.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
JustSomeDood
Posts: 469
Joined: Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:05 am

Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:37 pm

Doubt it, every leasing company with 777-300ERs is going to pitch their planes as relatively low-cycle feedstock for P2F to Amazon. And that's something which makes more sense to Amazon than every current new-build freighter bar maybe the 767F.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:55 pm

Sokes wrote:
jetblueguy22 wrote:
When you’re talking a place like FAR, that would most likely see a feeder aircraft type of airplane, the density isn’t there. Better to give it to someone giving you a sweetheart rate and is already in the area.


At least in low population density areas air fright calls for technical monopoly. But even for big cities it's better to send one B777F instead of two B767s.
I also believe Amazon doesn't require overnight deliveries for books ...
Better if they send it with passenger planes like the A330-300/ -900 with a two days delivery service. Would airlines be interested if Amazon offers to rent 70% of the cargo compartment for 12 years on a certain route?
It's quite possible that a B777-300 ERSF flying East coast to West coast back and forth makes sense. Otherwise economies of scales suggest to me they are better of if they outsource air freight.

"In October 2019, Boeing and IAI launched the 777-300ERSF passenger to freighter conversion program with GECAS ordering 15 aircraft and 15 options, the first aftermarket 777 freighter conversion program. The converted aircraft has a maximum payload of 224,000 lb (101.6 t), a range of 4,500 nmi (8,300 km) and shares the door aperture and aft position of the 777F. It has a cargo volume capacity of 28,900 cu ft (819 m3), 5,800 cb ft (164 cb m) greater than the 777F and can hold 47 standard 96 x 125 in pallet (P6P) positions, 10 more positions than a 777-200LRF or eight more than a 747-400F. Within the 811 777-300ERs delivered and 33 to be delivered, GECAS anticipates up to 150-175 orders through 2030, the four to five months conversion costs around $35m. IAI will receive the first aircraft in December 2020 while certification and service entry is scheduled for late 2022.[211]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_77 ... ighter_(SF)

New freighters? As new freighters are usually the shorter model and Amazon needs volume I doubt it.
I don't know about Amazon's intercontinental traffic needs.

If Amazon needs a larger freighter, a conversion is certain. A333P2F or 777-300ERSF both have merits.

There is no chance of a 748F order. Amazon wouldn't use the nose door nor weight, so going for the higher cost to buy and opperate than a 777-300ERSF? Not happening.

Personally, I think Amazon will grow with the smaller aircraft. More 737, 767 conversions. I see Skycourior before a larger widebody.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2210
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:47 am

My take on the freighter market, large to small:
A380 - the freighter model was cancelled, too few for conversions, upper deck a problem - no freighter conversions here.
B748F- Unless a customer steps up in the next year ordering a couple of dozen, the program is done. Triumph's exit spelled its doom. Getting another manufacturer going for anything less than a couple dozen seems crazy, it is done. The produced 748's will be flying for decades, no conversion of the pax models though.
B744 - no more conversions, steady drop in the converted freighters as they head to the desert, the new build freighters will be around for possibly 20 years before the active count drops below 100.

B772F- sales still will be happening, the freighter's performance with the GE90-115's is hard to beat, someday there will be a 778F but it will be a number of years. New freighters to be in production for a couple of decades.

B77W conversions- not a good candidate for the freight market, but great for the lower density package haulers. We will see 20-30 conversions a year starting once the program certified. A couple decades of production.

A332F A338F - New builds, the 332F has never caught on, I have heard it is because at the typical freight route range the payload needs to be clipped. If so the 338F could do much better. I would love to see Airbus do this one.

DC-10's thru MD-11's - the service end is near, regular fleet retirements by most of the firms, the cost of parts and overhauls is rising enough they will soon be in the desert only, Only 200 MD-11's and 386 DC-10's produced, with the DC-10 stopping production in 1990 and the MD-11 in 2000. So the newest is already 30 years old, maybe 10 years at most before all are in the desert

B764FNG - I think this will happen as a) GE has the engine GEnx-2B67 used on the 748F, it seems a good fit performance wise with the 764, the CF6 was on the 744 and 767. b) the line will be in operation for the KC's so keeping the line filled with freighters is good. c) The GEnx-2B67 may be a good upgrade for the KC-46 when the first batch of 179 are delivered. d) The current new build 763F is competing with the conversions, the new market could be saturated, moving up to a bigger plane gives it some room to gain orders.

B763F - new builds possibly for 5 years, conversions happening until the feedstock dries up. In service 30 years or more from here.

A300's - still a couple decades of service to come.

NB new builds - low volume NB conversions - will pick up a lot, I would guess the 738 will be the most popular, A320's next.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2210
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Could Amazon order new freighters ?

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:56 am

lightsaber wrote:
Personally, I think Amazon will grow with the smaller aircraft. More 737, 767 conversions. I see Skycourior before a larger widebody.

Lightsaber


The Skycourior has a lot of freight potential, the future RJ of the freight market. Think Miami to the Caribbean. 3 containers would cover most of the need in the islands, small enough to land. Think Anchorage to everywhere in Alaska. Think BC with all its islands. Not perfect, but a lot better than Caravans and Grand Caravans.

https://txtav.com/en/newsroom/2017/11/t ... skycourier

https://txtav.com/en/newsroom/2019/12/t ... r-aircraft

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