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AF086
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Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:16 pm

SAA plans to axe all domestic routes except the JNB-CPT shuttle as well as international routes to ABJ, CAN, EBB, HKG, LVI, LAD, MUC, NLA and GRU. All routes mentioned will be axed from February 29th.

Source: https://www.fin24.com/Companies/Industr ... n-20200206
Please insert a "smart" joke here.
 
716131
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:35 pm

What the hell. So who will took over it's DUR-JNB route etc? Is SAA reducing due to A340 being grounded and selled?
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Williamsb747
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:40 pm

WOW!!
I understand most of the cuts but always thought GRU was a top performer. That leaves LA as the only player wonder if they’ll increase capacity on the route.
MUC isn’t that big of a deal seeing that they service FRA daily as well. HKG with the protests and coronavirus is understandable. CAN ditto with the coronavirus.
In a previous news report from SAA they said that the domestic flights were all profitable, now leaving all operations to mango bar CPT is a shocker. And to top that CPT (top 15 busiest domestic air routes) served with reduced capacity. Ouch.

SAA has a lot of problems that they have to find a way to deal with. Consolidating routes into only worth while routes is definitely a positive. Let’s hope to see SAA eventually bounce back even if it takes them a few years.

Williams-
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pythoniels
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:44 pm

Also on SAA right now: https://www.flysaa.com/about-us/leading ... s/newsroom

Not good news!
 
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Polot
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:47 pm

Should be noted the domestic cuts do not include Mango.
 
x1234
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:06 pm

I like the turnaround plan as they cut routes with competition. I’m curious why SAA flies to PER instead of SYD? How much does SAA cooperate with UA now that UA is flying EWR-CPT?
 
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9MMPD
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:09 pm

x1234 wrote:
I like the turnaround plan as they cut routes with competition. I’m curious why SAA flies to PER instead of SYD? How much does SAA cooperate with UA now that UA is flying EWR-CPT?


PER has a huge South African population particularly in its northern suburbs. Also PER acts like a hub with pax transferring onto VA flights for MEL, SYD and BNE.
 
Toinou
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:12 pm

I know their situation is bad, but cutting many international routes with a three weeks notice! That's impressive.

I'm wondering about the domestic flights cut. Don't they rely, at least a bit, on domestic connections to feed international flights?
 
Williamsb747
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:15 pm

x1234 wrote:
I like the turnaround plan as they cut routes with competition. I’m curious why SAA flies to PER instead of SYD? How much does SAA cooperate with UA now that UA is flying EWR-CPT?


SAA partners majorly with VA on domestic and New Zealand routes and I presume PER is better (less backtracking apart from other reasons). They also flew to SYD but dropped that a while ago, so I'm guessing its not worth it.
UA and SAA are both in *Alliance and have been partnering on flights between the US and South Africa both through the EU and with SAA's flight to the US and as far as I can see, correct me if I'm wrong, UA1122 is not a codeshared route.

Williams-
Last edited by Williamsb747 on Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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qf789
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:16 pm

x1234 wrote:
I like the turnaround plan as they cut routes with competition. I’m curious why SAA flies to PER instead of SYD? How much does SAA cooperate with UA now that UA is flying EWR-CPT?


SAA has flown to PER for years, the advantage of using PER is on top of the local market they use VA to connect passengers to the east coast. What concerns me is cutting some of these routes, the passengers I have seen transfer from VA to SAA here in PER, most of them connect onto other flights once arriving at JNB, very few terminate in JNB, cutting these regional routes may not be a good idea, particularly if other long haul flights operate the same way
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9252fly
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:35 pm

To say I'm stunned at the cuts is an understatement. These cuts I'll assume and hope were well thought out. It will be interesting to see how much Air Link and Mango are used to back-fill the vacuum.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:41 pm

The writing has been on the wall for the domestic routes being transferred to Mango for years. Domestic routes in South Africa seems to have perpetual overcapacity so something had to give eventually. RSA is not a wealthy enough market to support 2 full service carriers.
 
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eastafspot
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:43 pm

AF086 wrote:
EBB


Uganda Airlines must be pleased about this news...
Fly with Air Burundi, Air Tanzania, Golden Wings Aviation, Kenya Airways, RwandAir and Uganda Airlines...Jumuiya ya Afrika mashariki !
 
ScottB
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:51 pm

Toinou wrote:
I'm wondering about the domestic flights cut. Don't they rely, at least a bit, on domestic connections to feed international flights?


All the domestic airports they're dropping, with the exception of ELS, are served by their wholly-owned subsidiary, Mango. If the feed is important, they could always use Airlink to offer access to ELS.

AF086 wrote:
SAA plans to axe all domestic routes except the JNB-CPT shuttle as well as international routes to ABJ, CAN, EBB, HKG, LVI, LAD, MUC, NLA and GRU. All routes mentioned will be axed from February 29th.


Looks like LVI is to be retained, according to the company's news release, but it's oddly out of alphabetical order in that list so one wonders if it had been "saved" at the last minute.
 
alan3
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:54 pm

We can't watch SAA struggle on the verge of collapse and then also be surprised at seeing them take drastic measures. Hopefully this means a serious restructuring effort to get back in black. Unfortunately there must be major job cuts coming though too?

Also, with Mango, Kulula, Safair, British Airways and Airlink, there is a lot of choice for domestic travel in SA. Can SAA passengers interline connect on to any of those?
Last edited by alan3 on Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:55 pm

AF086 wrote:
SAA plans to axe all domestic routes except the JNB-CPT shuttle as well as international routes to ABJ, CAN, EBB, HKG, LVI, LAD, MUC, NLA and GRU. All routes mentioned will be axed from February 29th.


So they are cutting about half the network.
Good moaning!
 
Williamsb747
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:58 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
AF086 wrote:
SAA plans to axe all domestic routes except the JNB-CPT shuttle as well as international routes to ABJ, CAN, EBB, HKG, LVI, LAD, MUC, NLA and GRU. All routes mentioned will be axed from February 29th.


So they are cutting about half the network.


8 of 26 international routes isn't half.... its just over a third.

Williams-
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:59 pm

pythoniels wrote:
Also on SAA right now: https://www.flysaa.com/about-us/leading ... s/newsroom

Not good news!

From the press release:

SAA does not intend to make any further significant network changes. Passengers and travel agents can therefore feel confident about booking future travel with South African Airways.


One wonders if the same thing was said by PanAm during their network cuts...

V/F
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Williamsb747
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:00 pm

alan3 wrote:
We can't watch SAA struggle on the verge of collapse and then also be surprised at seeing them take drastic measures. Hopefully this means a serious restructuring effort to get back in black. Unfortunately there must be major job cuts coming though too?

Also, with Mango, Kulula, Safair, British Airways and Airlink, there is a lot of choice for domestic travel in SA. Can SAA passengers interline connect on to any of those?


SAA already interlines with mango. BA and thus kulula is a definite no.

Williams-
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FSDan
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:03 pm

9MMPD wrote:
x1234 wrote:
I like the turnaround plan as they cut routes with competition. I’m curious why SAA flies to PER instead of SYD? How much does SAA cooperate with UA now that UA is flying EWR-CPT?


PER has a huge South African population particularly in its northern suburbs. Also PER acts like a hub with pax transferring onto VA flights for MEL, SYD and BNE.


I wouldn't be surprised if there are some decent mining industry ties between Perth and South Africa as well.
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Thibault973
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:15 pm

Does the cuts include flights operated but SA Express ?
 
crjflyboy
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:24 pm

The economy of South Africa has been contracting for the last 6 years ...

https://www.ft.com/content/e3cc7a56-15b ... f260415385

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/economy ... e-to-pray/

The amount of people leaving South Africa continues to rise

https://city-press.news24.com/News/shar ... y-20190117

Is it any wonder SAA is in financial shambles ?
 
Williamsb747
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:52 pm

crjflyboy wrote:
The economy of South Africa has been contracting for the last 6 years ...

https://www.ft.com/content/e3cc7a56-15b ... f260415385

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/economy ... e-to-pray/

The amount of people leaving South Africa continues to rise

https://city-press.news24.com/News/shar ... y-20190117

Is it any wonder SAA is in financial shambles ?

No it is not, but the reason you are trying to cite is completely false. SAA last made profit in 2011 more than 6 years ago. This due to government interfering with operations and corruption. Is the number of people leaving SA contributing to SAA's demise, possibly but it wouldn't affect it as badly if there wasn't the corruption in the first place.

Williams-
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crjflyboy
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:57 pm

Williamsb747 wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:
The economy of South Africa has been contracting for the last 6 years ...

https://www.ft.com/content/e3cc7a56-15b ... f260415385

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/economy ... e-to-pray/

The amount of people leaving South Africa continues to rise

https://city-press.news24.com/News/shar ... y-20190117

Is it any wonder SAA is in financial shambles ?

No it is not, but the reason you are trying to cite is completely false. SAA last made profit in 2011 more than 6 years ago. This due to government interfering with operations and corruption. Is the number of people leaving SA contributing to SAA's demise, possibly but it wouldn't affect it as badly if there wasn't the corruption in the first place.

Williams-


Put your proof up the economy has not contracted the last 6 years

The amount of SOUTH AFRICANS that can afford to fly shrinks daily as they exit the country for good.
 
Williamsb747
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:01 pm

crjflyboy wrote:
Williamsb747 wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:
The economy of South Africa has been contracting for the last 6 years ...

https://www.ft.com/content/e3cc7a56-15b ... f260415385

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/economy ... e-to-pray/

The amount of people leaving South Africa continues to rise

https://city-press.news24.com/News/shar ... y-20190117

Is it any wonder SAA is in financial shambles ?

No it is not, but the reason you are trying to cite is completely false. SAA last made profit in 2011 more than 6 years ago. This due to government interfering with operations and corruption. Is the number of people leaving SA contributing to SAA's demise, possibly but it wouldn't affect it as badly if there wasn't the corruption in the first place.

Williams-


Put your proof up the economy has not contracted the last 6 years

The amount of SOUTH AFRICANS that can afford to fly shrinks daily as they exit the country for good.


I didn't say the economy hasn't, isn't, continuing to shrink. Nor did I say more South Africans are flying. I simply stated the fact that SAA hasn't made profit prior (I reiterate since 2011) to the economies further demise.

Williams-
Last edited by Williamsb747 on Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Clackers
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:02 pm

Horrible stuff for SAA. Much bigger cuts than expected. On the other hand, good news for those rumoured SQ fifth freedoms, SIN-CPT-GRU and SIN-JNB-GIG.
 
Williamsb747
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:07 pm

Clackers wrote:
Horrible stuff for SAA. Much bigger cuts than expected. On the other hand, good news for those rumoured SQ fifth freedoms, SIN-CPT-GRU and SIN-JNB-GIG.

Oh how I would love to see SIN-CPT-GRU. Have these rumours reappeared recently? I haven't seen anything yet.

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AF086
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:21 pm

Clackers wrote:
Horrible stuff for SAA. Much bigger cuts than expected. On the other hand, good news for those rumoured SQ fifth freedoms, SIN-CPT-GRU and SIN-JNB-GIG.


Those would be very interesting additions especially at GIG. However, the South African government was not very keen on allowing such 5th freedom rights, don't know if things are different now.
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grjplanes
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:17 pm

Thibault973 wrote:
Does the cuts include flights operated but SA Express ?


No, this is not including SA Express at the moment...as they are run as two different companies. SAX has already made several cuts last year when they resumed service.
However, in a court case ruling today it was said that SAX should also be placed under Business Rescue...guess the decision remains with the government though. Could be changes happening there soon as well.
Currently SAX's reliability and performance is dire.
 
grjplanes
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:32 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
AF086 wrote:
SAA plans to axe all domestic routes except the JNB-CPT shuttle as well as international routes to ABJ, CAN, EBB, HKG, LVI, LAD, MUC, NLA and GRU. All routes mentioned will be axed from February 29th.


So they are cutting about half the network.


Just to to note on these:
ABJ...was just 3 weekly, as tag-on via ACC
CAN...never actually launched (so not dropping)
EBB...Airlink has been operating on behalf of SAA for the last few months, and announced that they will continue the route under their own operations
HKG...been suspended since November
LVI...with the last week's reductions this route had the most of the regional ones, with VFA just across the river being served with A330
LAD...was dropped a while ago for a short period, ever since varied between 2 and 4 weekly, mostly A320...Angola economy not so great currently...TAAG however cleaning up on the route with almost double-daily service offering connections. Airlink got approval to operate route daily
MUC...long been suspected to be one of the worse performers, already been dropped recently, so was expected. FRA doing similar job, slight capacity increase there with A350 on the route now.
NLA...only 3 weekly, Zambia economy also in uncertain times...Airlink remains on 2 daily
GRU... the big surprise here...however I think this did actually rely a bit on the HKG route as well...LATAM have already mentioned recently they want to go daily.

All in all possibly maximum 90 weekly flights all this together...some will be covered by other airlines stepping in or increasing.
Rest of the international/regional market still accounts to about 320 weekly flights...but I won't be surprised if some also get reduced a bit (ie those at 9/10 weekly down to just daily or some which is 3 daily down to 2 daily)
Domestically I'm sure Mango will make up for some of it (but not all), while perhaps it could be a push for SA Express to stand in on some.
 
9252fly
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:55 pm

grjplanes wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
AF086 wrote:
SAA plans to axe all domestic routes except the JNB-CPT shuttle as well as international routes to ABJ, CAN, EBB, HKG, LVI, LAD, MUC, NLA and GRU. All routes mentioned will be axed from February 29th.


So they are cutting about half the network.


Just to to note on these:
ABJ...was just 3 weekly, as tag-on via ACC
CAN...never actually launched (so not dropping)
EBB...Airlink has been operating on behalf of SAA for the last few months, and announced that they will continue the route under their own operations
HKG...been suspended since November
LVI...with the last week's reductions this route had the most of the regional ones, with VFA just across the river being served with A330
LAD...was dropped a while ago for a short period, ever since varied between 2 and 4 weekly, mostly A320...Angola economy not so great currently...TAAG however cleaning up on the route with almost double-daily service offering connections. Airlink got approval to operate route daily
MUC...long been suspected to be one of the worse performers, already been dropped recently, so was expected. FRA doing similar job, slight capacity increase there with A350 on the route now.
NLA...only 3 weekly, Zambia economy also in uncertain times...Airlink remains on 2 daily
GRU... the big surprise here...however I think this did actually rely a bit on the HKG route as well...LATAM have already mentioned recently they want to go daily.

All in all possibly maximum 90 weekly flights all this together...some will be covered by other airlines stepping in or increasing.
Rest of the international/regional market still accounts to about 320 weekly flights...but I won't be surprised if some also get reduced a bit (ie those at 9/10 weekly down to just daily or some which is 3 daily down to 2 daily)
Domestically I'm sure Mango will make up for some of it (but not all), while perhaps it could be a push for SA Express to stand in on some.


A very informative post, thank you! Does LH have any interest in picking up the MUC - JNB route? In you post, are you confirming LVI is to be suspended? I do see LA going daily with a possible up-gauge to a B77W on the GRU - JNB route. The wildcard here is Mango, SAX and Airlink, how will they end up fitting into the the future SA network. That was an interesting tidbit on Airlink getting approval to operate JNB - LAD.
 
GSP psgr
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:46 pm

9252fly wrote:
grjplanes wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:

So they are cutting about half the network.


Just to to note on these:
ABJ...was just 3 weekly, as tag-on via ACC
CAN...never actually launched (so not dropping)
EBB...Airlink has been operating on behalf of SAA for the last few months, and announced that they will continue the route under their own operations
HKG...been suspended since November
LVI...with the last week's reductions this route had the most of the regional ones, with VFA just across the river being served with A330
LAD...was dropped a while ago for a short period, ever since varied between 2 and 4 weekly, mostly A320...Angola economy not so great currently...TAAG however cleaning up on the route with almost double-daily service offering connections. Airlink got approval to operate route daily
MUC...long been suspected to be one of the worse performers, already been dropped recently, so was expected. FRA doing similar job, slight capacity increase there with A350 on the route now.
NLA...only 3 weekly, Zambia economy also in uncertain times...Airlink remains on 2 daily
GRU... the big surprise here...however I think this did actually rely a bit on the HKG route as well...LATAM have already mentioned recently they want to go daily.

All in all possibly maximum 90 weekly flights all this together...some will be covered by other airlines stepping in or increasing.
Rest of the international/regional market still accounts to about 320 weekly flights...but I won't be surprised if some also get reduced a bit (ie those at 9/10 weekly down to just daily or some which is 3 daily down to 2 daily)
Domestically I'm sure Mango will make up for some of it (but not all), while perhaps it could be a push for SA Express to stand in on some.


A very informative post, thank you! Does LH have any interest in picking up the MUC - JNB route? In you post, are you confirming LVI is to be suspended? I do see LA going daily with a possible up-gauge to a B77W on the GRU - JNB route. The wildcard here is Mango, SAX and Airlink, how will they end up fitting into the the future SA network. That was an interesting tidbit on Airlink getting approval to operate JNB - LAD.


This looks like it could end up mostly being a reshuffle of flying for SAA and their partners in the long term. I'd suspect LH will end up picking up MUC, SQ could end up picking up GRU, NLA, LAD, LVI, and EBB go to Airlink. That leaves HKG and ABJ as network cuts. HKG is understandable given the situation there right now-and Air China's flying JNB-Shenzhen now too. The only real surprise is the cancellation of JNB-DUR. I expected it would stick around in at least some limited capacity (like 4x daily, mostly to feed Star Alliance connections onward). I wonder if this eventually opens the door to an EVA service JNB-TPE.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:25 pm

Clackers wrote:
Horrible stuff for SAA. Much bigger cuts than expected.


Going bankrupt would be even more horrible.
Good moaning!
 
716131
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:40 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Clackers wrote:
Horrible stuff for SAA. Much bigger cuts than expected.


Going bankrupt would be even more horrible.

Yeah. But to avoid bankrupt, they need to do more things than just this.
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berari
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:45 am

SQ789 wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Clackers wrote:
Horrible stuff for SAA. Much bigger cuts than expected.


Going bankrupt would be even more horrible.

Yeah. But to avoid bankrupt, they need to do more things than just this.


It's a step in the right direction. The bleeding must stop.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:52 am

What is the point of keeping SAA around? When was the last time they weren't hemorrhaging money?
 
berari
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:54 am

Toinou wrote:
I know their situation is bad, but cutting many international routes with a three weeks notice! That's impressive.

I'm wondering about the domestic flights cut. Don't they rely, at least a bit, on domestic connections to feed international flights?


Mango will feed international flights. I wouldn't be surprised if they pursue that.
 
716131
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:17 am

So how many planes will SAA ground once these routes ended?
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PM
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:57 am

I actually find this encouraging. It's a serious and grown up reaction rather than something cosmetic. Now they need to improve service on the routes they still have. I'm flying them four weeks tomorrow (WDH-JNB-LHR) so I'll see...
 
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Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:33 am

SQ789 wrote:
So how many planes will SAA ground once these routes ended?


At least a large part of their A340 fleet. The 4 A350s they lease are apparently enough to cover long haul routes. FRA is now also an A350 route, a destination which doesn't really require the range of the A350.

PM wrote:
I actually find this encouraging. It's a serious and grown up reaction rather than something cosmetic. Now they need to improve service on the routes they still have. I'm flying them four weeks tomorrow (WDH-JNB-LHR) so I'll see...


Hmm, booked a flight a short while ago with them, but one leg is AMS-MUC-JNB which will be dropped. Return would be JNB-FRA-AMS, which won't be dropped. The MUC-JNB still shows "Flight confirmed" on my booking. Wonder when I'll hear something about it, perhaps they'll change it to AMS-FRA-JNB?
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,346,359,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W,788 AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
aytdxb
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:18 pm

Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:03 am

I think this is a very good decision. Either this or complete bankruptcy.

SAA can add those axed routes back in future once the company makes a turn around and starts making some profit. Or at least stops bleeding cash.

My approach would be to either completely close down business or sell the company ( but then again who would buy it) - Because I somehow feel that unless the logic of SAA management changes, nothing will change. may be less burden for taxpayers this way though

I am happy they will keep JNB-WDH as this is a route I use very often. Love SAA hope they can survive.
 
User avatar
eta unknown
Posts: 2801
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 5:03 am

Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:13 am

With regards to GRU, in addition to LATAM I think TAAG might be carrying quite a bit of transit traffic via LAD.
 
LUKAS10
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:54 pm

Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:22 am

Does anyone have any information regarding JNB transfer passengers? JNB seems to be rather a dead end destination so I'm wondering if there's such a strong O&D demand between JNB and destinations like EBB, TNR or FIH; or do passengers travelling from those airports transfer in JNB (where to? I can only imagine Europe but FIH-EU via JNB seems to be a solid backtrack)?
Airlink also has a strong position in Mozambique. Isn't GRU route cut going to affect demand to MPM or TET?
 
duboka909
Posts: 15
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2011 7:31 pm

Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:01 am

9252fly wrote:
A very informative post, thank you! Does LH have any interest in picking up the MUC - JNB route?


They served it 10+ years ago. I think that they could pick it up again, since their FRA-JNB flights are generally quite full and they want to move some traffic to MUC anyway...
 
NZ516
Posts: 405
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:47 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
What is the point of keeping SAA around? When was the last time they weren't hemorrhaging money?


It has been mentioned a couple of times in this thread that the last year SAA made a profit was 2011 so coming up to 9 years.
 
grjplanes
Posts: 203
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:52 am

Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:10 pm

frigatebird wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
So how many planes will SAA ground once these routes ended?


At least a large part of their A340 fleet. The 4 A350s they lease are apparently enough to cover long haul routes. FRA is now also an A350 route, a destination which doesn't really require the range of the A350.

PM wrote:
I actually find this encouraging. It's a serious and grown up reaction rather than something cosmetic. Now they need to improve service on the routes they still have. I'm flying them four weeks tomorrow (WDH-JNB-LHR) so I'll see...


Hmm, booked a flight a short while ago with them, but one leg is AMS-MUC-JNB which will be dropped. Return would be JNB-FRA-AMS, which won't be dropped. The MUC-JNB still shows "Flight confirmed" on my booking. Wonder when I'll hear something about it, perhaps they'll change it to AMS-FRA-JNB?


Doubt the 4 A350s are enough for the remaining long-haul routes...they cover just JFK and FRA.
The A330s will probably all still stay...6 A330-200 + 5 A330-300

The A340s will probably all be on their way out, basically almost just PER being served with it regularly. In fact another A340-600 is currently on its way to San Bernardino via GRU.
 
grjplanes
Posts: 203
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:52 am

Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:14 pm

eta unknown wrote:
With regards to GRU, in addition to LATAM I think TAAG might be carrying quite a bit of transit traffic via LAD.


That is true yes, carrying a lot of that traffic and actually TAAG in that way maybe also picked up more traffic from MPM via LAD to GRU...taking both MPM-JNB and JNB-GRU marketshare from SAA.

The mention of rumors regarding SQ applying for 5th freedom to Brazil via South Africa is interesting...I know that ideas have been mentioned on airliners.net before, but is there actually substantial grounds for this being rumors now?

I for one think a interesting addition could be if Star Alliance partner Avianca could add a JNB-BOG service 3 or 4 weekly.
 
grjplanes
Posts: 203
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:52 am

Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:23 pm

LUKAS10 wrote:
Does anyone have any information regarding JNB transfer passengers? JNB seems to be rather a dead end destination so I'm wondering if there's such a strong O&D demand between JNB and destinations like EBB, TNR or FIH; or do passengers travelling from those airports transfer in JNB (where to? I can only imagine Europe but FIH-EU via JNB seems to be a solid backtrack)?
Airlink also has a strong position in Mozambique. Isn't GRU route cut going to affect demand to MPM or TET?


Well, yes for most routes there remains some connecting options to others at JNB...TNR to other Southern and West/Central Africa and actually perhaps to the US markets...Europe better covered from TNR in other ways. FIH similarly to other Southern Africa destinations and perhaps PER. EBB is maybe with less options that isn't served better through other African hubs, either way it remains backtrack (albeit via ADD,NBO or JNB). EBB probably does however have much bigger O&D demand. FIH should be okay with stronger business/mining ties.
All this, Johannesburg and Gauteng Province still remain an economic powerhouse and is still entry point to the larger South African market itself.

GRU cut will probably affect MPM (also see other post re TAAG taking some share), thus I won't be surprised if MPM gets reduced to 2 daily. TET is only served with ERJs of Airlink, so it should remain sustainable with the market demand from South Africa itself etc.
 
grjplanes
Posts: 203
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:52 am

Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:32 pm

NZ516 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
What is the point of keeping SAA around? When was the last time they weren't hemorrhaging money?


It has been mentioned a couple of times in this thread that the last year SAA made a profit was 2011 so coming up to 9 years.


There's lots of talk that just closing it down will cost the government a lot more (mentions of R 80 billion)...which will have much bigger ramifications for the country as a whole.

Keeping it around in some circles gets argued for essential services it provides which have a lot more economic benefit down the line...however in many cases some of the capacity will be taken up by other players...while in fact SAA's international market share in to the country is a mere 15 to 20% at the best.

The final plans for this business rescue should be announced by the end of this month...I for one think it's already a good sign that some of these things gets implemented already before that...route restructuring and fleet shrinking/changes. But it's about a lot more than that...basically everything will get re-negotiated...100s of supplier contracts, leases, rentals, codeshares etc. Then still negotiating the staff compliment...and that could be a tough one.
Eventually I believe we'll see a much smaller SAA in the short-term, several changes still ahead. It feels like at last something might be on the right track.
 
A388
Posts: 7981
Joined: Mon May 21, 2001 3:48 am

Re: SAA shrinks even further

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:38 pm

Very harsh measures that SAA (government) needed to take and quite admirable they had the balls to do this as they mishandled the airline for a long time without taking any action. Like someone said, it's better to cut this staff now rather then closing the doors and leave everybody without a job later.

I hope SAA will become a stable and solid airline again in the future. Good luck to them.

A388

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