MDGLongBeach wrote:This isn’t a general response but I know the high demand and low supply for JT8Ds has brought delta to buying old Allegiant birds in Victorville for replacement parts. I imagine their value is pretty high, are there any other engines in high demand right now? Could we foresee this being a trend when more modern aircraft now, down the line begin to phase out (like A320 and 738)?
lightsaber wrote:I have long been an advocate that today's modern narrowbodies will replace the current 737NG/CEO rapidly.
Can B737-700 and A319 engines supply used serviceable material for bigger models?
lightsaber wrote:"A CFM56 that goes for about $7 million now might only be worth $2-3 million in five years,” GA Telesis president and CEO Abdol Moabery said. “If that happens, you don’t want to be the one who paid $7 million today." https://aviationweek.com/mro/retirement ... gine-parts
I have long been an advocate that today's modern narrowbodies will replace the current 737NG/CEO rapidly. This puts an economic impact of the (in my opinion) high production rates for NEO/MAX+ A220.
Right now, there is a shortage of narrowbody lift, so airlines are holding onto 737NG and A320CEO Aircraft.
Note: I assume that $2-$3 million is a $7 million engine 2/3rds of the way to a $2.5 million overhaul, so means a new $7 million becomes $3 million plus $1.67 million in wear and tear.
MDGLongBeach wrote:Driven by demand that is less sensitive to fuel economy, ie short mileage cycles. For a readers consideration, a mitigating factor on the issue raised.This isn’t a general response but I know the high demand and low supply for JT8Ds has brought delta to buying old Allegiant birds in Victorville for replacement parts.
Chaostheory wrote:Larger and more organised airlines with all 3 variants will often swap engines post shop visit from an A321 to an A319 or A320 where the engine life will be prolonged at derated thrust.
We can model it if you like. For your consideration we would start by
• separate engine and frame depreciation
• separate mechanical utility and economic utility
• separate engine depreciation and overhaul depreciation
• assume an efficient market
The objective would be to solve for two costs. The cost of the overhaul over a time period and the cost of the engine over time.
Imposing economic depreciation thinking over tax based depreciation; straight line seems sensible for measuring the cost of overhaul life. The engine should have a different treatment.
next data collection:
Mechanically how long does an engine last; years?, hours?
How is overhaul usage measured hours? cycles? Any back of the napkin thoughts on usage penalties as highlighted by M Chaos?
Are overhaul costs reasonably static? $2.5m is our reference. Any back of the napkin thoughts on premiums paid for older engines?
reader please add ideas here: 'quick reply'
Respects to your engineering expertise, many of us are here because of you and your colleagues. I appreciate the constructive consul when we query the craft. Perhaps a few of us on the market side could reciprocate this round.
amdiesen wrote:How is overhaul usage measured hours? cycles? Any back of the napkin thoughts on usage penalties as highlighted by M Chaos?
Chaostheory wrote:Usage is measured by hours and cycles.
Longer answer: The CFM56 on our A320 fleet will go about 10 000 cycle before it needs performance restoration (shop visit). We're based in a sandy and dasty environment which is torture for engines and reduces their life by 20-30% and increases maintenance costs by a similar amount. A shop visit is $3m with total complement of LLPs costing an additional $3.5m. The LLPs on the CFM56-5B last anywhere between 15-30k cycles. I work on the Boeing fleet and it's been a while since I looked at the Airbus fleet stats but our usage was around 1.5hr per cycle and the engines operated at a 20% derate.
Yikes. Too many factors/variables to take into account, so the answer is: depends.
and the engines operated at a 20% derate.
A new cfm56 costs $11m+. A quick engine change kit can add $1m+ to the engine value.
JayinKitsap wrote:The A380 engines by either EA or RR will be incredibly spendy in a few years, due to their small numbers.
thegrew wrote:This may greatly show my ignorance but would it be possible to install a LEAP in place of a CFM56 on an A320 series without changing much else? I appreciate the NEOs have other refinements but is a halfway house possible?
Sent from my moto g(7) plus using Tapatalk
kitplane01 wrote:Wow. I believe you, but I would have thought 20% was a very large derate. The Cessna/Pipers I fly would climb like crap with such a power reduction, and I always understood that jets flew best with quick climbs and minimum time down low.
Also, what's a "quick engine change kit"?
Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe
Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days
Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit
Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior
Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft
Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials
Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions
Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin
Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon
Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos
Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft
Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries
Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground
Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos