New article today suggesting Icelandair continues to consider the introduction of Airbus A321 neos and intends to decide within the next few months.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/ice ... 11.article

Also another link discussing the costs to Icelandair of the 737 Max debacle

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/ice ... 09.article

Make sense to acquire LR/XLRs to complement Max fleet like quite a few other airlines

I don't see what else they could possible order, what with Boeing dithering about NMA and the MAX debacle still ongoing until who knows when.

Iceland air picking max over neo was an epic mistake. Maybe they learnt their lessons.

How much more fish can you carry on an A321?

Sorry, someone was bound to mention it.

Cheers,
C1973

That’s why the XLR is crucial. That rear tank takes less space than the 3 ACF in the A321LR. More space for fishies!

tphuang wrote:

Iceland air picking max over neo was an epic mistake. Maybe they learnt their lessons.

Hindsight is a perfect science. If they knew then what we all know now naturally they wouldn't have ordered it.
If the Max wasn't in this pickle and was operational, it would be a great plane for Icelandair, given it's location mid Atlantic.

On the broader topic of Icelandair. In the scheme of things they are a relatively small airline. They are competing on the busy North Atlantic. They are looking to modernise the fleet, due to the Max issues.

What's the view on here in terms of the future for Icelandair? Are they likely going to be an investment/ takeover target for larger airline groupings, I.e. Delta, IAG, Qatar/ Air Italy?

What strategic value does the airline offer? Would the airline be desirable to IAG in terms of its transatlantic share and moreover, would ownership rules allow for an IAG takeover?

IrishLessor wrote:

On the broader topic of Icelandair. In the scheme of things they are a relatively small airline. They are competing on the busy North Atlantic. They are looking to modernise the fleet, due to the Max issues.

What's the view on here in terms of the future for Icelandair? Are they likely going to be an investment/ takeover target for larger airline groupings, I.e. Delta, IAG, Qatar/ Air Italy?

What strategic value does the airline offer? Would the airline be desirable to IAG in terms of its transatlantic share and moreover, would ownership rules allow for an IAG takeover?

I don’t see what they would truly offer to. IAG other than an alternative routing for TATL routings from some continental locations

It’d be different if EI wasn’t in the IAG Hangar already but it is so that’s a moot point

Same really goes for LHG and AFKLG i think your far more likely if any group would be indigo parters who already own among others Wizz now combine Wizz and FI into a JV and you’d have an extensive coverage between the two across the whole of Europe into KEF and then onwards to NA

Edit: literally the next thread I saw after posting so scratch that idea

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1440601&p=22001965#p22001965

Chipmunk1973 wrote:

How much more fish can you carry on an A321?

Sorry, someone was bound to mention it.

Cheers,
C1973

Fitting of course, since the whole meme began in the original thread years ago when they declined on the neo.

Considering that even if the Max weren't grounded right now, the Max lacks the range of the 757's, yeah they don't really have any other choice. Those 757's are aging and are going to need replacement sooner or later, and whether or not Boeing will have whatever their answer will be called in time is a whole other question.

If Icelandair will order the A321, they will move their fleet over to Airbus. The MAX they have ordered will be just leased out in their wet leasing operations.
The current 757 fleet will age out.

Going over to the A321neo and adding the XLR, would allow Icelandair to reach all current destinations, with additional possibilities on the west coast, or more southern parts of North America.
Some destinations, like LAX and SFO, are not in the range of the current 757-200WL frames.
Add two A330neo for slot restricted airports like LHR, JFK and AMS.

mjoelnir wrote:

If Icelandair will order the A321, they will move their fleet over to Airbus. The MAX they have ordered will be just leased out in their wet leasing operations.
The current 757 fleet will age out.

Going over to the A321neo and adding the XLR, would allow Icelandair to reach all current destinations, with additional possibilities on the west coast, or more southern parts of North America.
Some destinations, like LAX and SFO, are not in the range of the current 757-200WL frames.
Add two A330neo for slot restricted airports like LHR, JFK and AMS.

Jet2 are replacing their 757s with A321s starting as we speak while maintaining a sizeable fleet of 737-300’s and 800’s and a few 757s still, no need to move the whole fleet over to Airbus necessarily.

The issue will be finding slots for the A321neo/XLR. The MAX fleet is all leased while the passenger 757 fleet is all owned (3 of the 4 B763s are also owned). That said, shorter routes could be moved to the A321, where later-model A321s could be had for good lease or purchase prices.

That said, I can't see Icelandair operating a wide-body the size of the A339...maybe the B788 would be more ideal for them...and FI could get MAX compensation from Boeing by switching to the B788, with 6-8 frames being ideal. A mixed A321 (ceo and neo/XLR)/B788 fleet would make sense.

TC957 wrote:

I don't see what else they could possible order, what with Boeing dithering about NMA and the MAX debacle still ongoing until who knows when.

Same, the 757 fleet will need to be replaced this decade and Boeing does not have a replacement. The A321 XLR is the replacement.

Icelandair is a small airline, but it has most of its history been flying frames produced by the 2 companies that formed todays Boeing corporation.
Airbus would not need many slots to satisfy Icelandair. It would be quite a symbolic victory to move that airline to Airbus.

Well they can't wait for the MAX too long..But why can't they lease 738s and 739ER for european destinations and the A321XLR for TATL ops?

marcogr12 wrote:

Well they can't wait for the MAX too long..But why can't they lease 738s and 739ER for european destinations and the A321XLR for TATL ops?

FI has never operated the 737 NG, although they do still own some examples dry-leased to other airlines (others were sold off to other lessors). The ones FI bought for the leasing division have the infix: 737-808. FI also lost a potential frame for u se that crashed as PX73 in 2018 (ironically there, an FI employee was on board as a passenger during that crash). Of the purchased planes that went to Icelease:

4 are flying for Jet2
1 was leased to Air Berlin, sold to AerCap with lease attached, and is now flying for Royal Flight (Russia)
1 was leased to Air China...not sure if ORIX is managing the lease or owns the frame now.
6 were leased to the Hainan Airlines suite of airlines and Icelandair is still the lessor for at least 3 (one has since been sold to Macquarie Bank. another is owned or managed by ORIX, and the other is owned within the HNA Group).
1 is flying for TUI/Sunwing (managed by BBAM)

Others I can't locate, but I can suspect that FI might be all over the three frames leased to HNA now, although FI could probably make more money dry-leasing the remaining owned 73Hs rather than flying the planes themselves.

As for the 73J, that model is not liquid at all as most examples were ordered by airlines desiring to operate them for at least 20-25 years, with a heavy USA concentration. The only ones coming onto the market generally are ex-Lion Air frames, although FI could strike a deal to lease or buy a significant number of them as they come off lease (Lion Air acquired most of its frames via the sale-leaseback route, and currently 35 73Js are leased by the Lion Air Group, all under sale-leasebacks of direct orders).

if they ordered Airbus surely it would be many years before they even got their first. Or are they leasing agencies with many to start deploying soon?

by738 wrote:

if they ordered Airbus surely it would be many years before they even got their first. Or are they leasing agencies with many to start deploying soon?

Airbus might have some slots available in the next few years. Also some slots can come available because a customer wants to reschedule their order and/or a customer goes belly up.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

marcogr12 wrote:

Well they can't wait for the MAX too long..But why can't they lease 738s and 739ER for european destinations and the A321XLR for TATL ops?

FI has never operated the 737 NG, although they do still own some examples dry-leased to other airlines (others were sold off to other lessors). The ones FI bought for the leasing division have the infix: 737-808. FI also lost a potential frame for u se that crashed as PX73 in 2018 (ironically there, an FI employee was on board as a passenger during that crash). Of the purchased planes that went to Icelease:

4 are flying for Jet2
1 was leased to Air Berlin, sold to AerCap with lease attached, and is now flying for Royal Flight (Russia)
1 was leased to Air China...not sure if ORIX is managing the lease or owns the frame now.
6 were leased to the Hainan Airlines suite of airlines and Icelandair is still the lessor for at least 3 (one has since been sold to Macquarie Bank. another is owned or managed by ORIX, and the other is owned within the HNA Group).
1 is flying for TUI/Sunwing (managed by BBAM)

Others I can't locate, but I can suspect that FI might be all over the three frames leased to HNA now, although FI could probably make more money dry-leasing the remaining owned 73Hs rather than flying the planes themselves.

As for the 73J, that model is not liquid at all as most examples were ordered by airlines desiring to operate them for at least 20-25 years, with a heavy USA concentration. The only ones coming onto the market generally are ex-Lion Air frames, although FI could strike a deal to lease or buy a significant number of them as they come off lease (Lion Air acquired most of its frames via the sale-leaseback route, and currently 35 73Js are leased by the Lion Air Group, all under sale-leasebacks of direct orders).

Icelandair does also wet leasing or ACMI. Icelandair has operated the 737NG, just not for there own network. Where those 15 737-800 aircraft ended up is a second point. Icelandair has also operated 737-300 and -400. Icelandair has supplied small airlines with frames, pilots, service technicians and running the operational side, or parts of that list. Airplanes provided or operated, included 737, 757, 767 and DHC8.

Regarding operation for Icelandair itself, they used 737-300 and -400 for a while, but the limited range made them unattractive. The 737-800 where a good deal partly based on Boeing cancelling the ordered 757-300, but to short ranged for the Icelandair network at that time.
I have my doubts about Icelandair using 737-800 in there own network, even if they still own some. They used 757 instead, only the 737MAX changed that view. Less fuel burn and longer legs than the 737-800.

A lot of airlines are choosing the A321NEO/NEOLR to replace their 757s, all of which are more than 15 years old now. I see Icelandair choosing the A321NEO to replace their 757s, in...I would say the middle of the 20s. Even before the grounding of the MAX, ordering it was a mistake. Icelandair should have chosen the A321NEO over the MAX, the MAX-8 isn't the right 757 replacement. Icelandair could use them on routes out of KEF to Northern Europe as well as routes to the US and Canada. KEF-YYZ for example. A NEOLR could do KEF-DEN or even KEF-MAD, KEF-BCN, or KEF-HEL just to name a few. Not sure if a NEOLR could do KEF-SEA nonstop Westbound with headwinds, maybe the all new XLR could, if that one is too far for a 321NEOLR then they should consider the 787-8.

The new WB market is soft, and predicted to soften further, even before CV. The used market is soft, even though it's being propped up a little by RR engine woes.

Unless you are are acquiring new / nearly new from desperate owners or OEM, wait.

They should have gone for the 321 long time ago but I get that they're a loyal old Boeing customer and with that in mind the Max were an ok decision
As the Max won't fly again (any time soon) FI is left with only one choice
No surprise

American 767 wrote:

A lot of airlines are choosing the A321NEO/NEOLR to replace their 757s, all of which are more than 15 years old now. I see Icelandair choosing the A321NEO to replace their 757s, in...I would say the middle of the 20s. Even before the grounding of the MAX, ordering it was a mistake. Icelandair should have chosen the A321NEO over the MAX, the MAX-8 isn't the right 757 replacement. Icelandair could use them on routes out of KEF to Northern Europe as well as routes to the US and Canada. KEF-YYZ for example. A NEOLR could do KEF-DEN or even KEF-MAD, KEF-BCN, or KEF-HEL just to name a few. Not sure if a NEOLR could do KEF-SEA nonstop Westbound with headwinds, maybe the all new XLR could, if that one is too far for a 321NEOLR then they should consider the 787-8.

The MAX wasn't ordered as a 757-replacement, it's obvious that it doesn't fill that role. It was ordered as a waiting move because there was no suitable 757 replacement available at the time and Boeing was already making noises about a clean-sheet design. This choice was made in 2013 when there was no such thing as a A321LR, let alone a A321XLR, and it needs to judged on the information that was available at the time. Every development that has happened since then has made it clear that they should have gone with Airbus. The Boeing clean-sheet MOM/NMA that was being teased clearly won't be available in time to replace the 757 fleet, and the latest development at Boeing suggest that this new design is probably moving away from Icelandair's niche needs anyways. There is now clearly only one feasible option for Icelandair and it is the Airbus A321XLR.

Norwegian has always stated interest in leasing or selling their NEOs, FI could pick some up even if DY wanting to use some themselves. I believe those slots are fairly early ones?

IrishLessor wrote:

What strategic value does the airline offer? Would the airline be desirable to IAG in terms of its transatlantic share and moreover, would ownership rules allow for an IAG takeover?

There was an extensive discussion of an IAG takeover of Icelandair about 4 years ago.
viewtopic.php?t=1347367

American 767 wrote:

Not sure if a NEOLR could do KEF-SEA nonstop Westbound with headwinds, maybe the all new XLR could, if that one is too far for a 321NEOLR then they should consider the 787-8.

It should be fine for Seattle. Airbus claims it already has superior range to a 757, and the approx. 25% better fuel efficiency sweetens the deal. The aircraft (and the XLR) would take a small hit on cargo capacity, but even if they went for the Max as a full replacement they'd have the same issue.

XaraB wrote:

Norwegian has always stated interest in leasing or selling their NEOs, FI could pick some up even if DY wanting to use some themselves. I believe those slots are fairly early ones?

Norwegian shows interest to start using their NEOs themself...

797 + 737-8 + 737-10 will serve them perfectly.

seahawk wrote:

797 + 737-8 + 737-10 will serve them perfectly.

The 797 does not exist. It is difficult to plan with an hypothetical airplane.

If it should really be launched one day, we would still look at many years of waiting, while the 757 get aged out.

It was a mayor mistake of Icelandair, to stay with Boeing speculating on the 797 and take the 737MAX as a waiting move.

Chipmunk1973 wrote:

How much more fish can you carry on an A321?

Sorry, someone was bound to mention it.

Cheers,
C1973

Made my day!!! LOL

American 767 wrote:

A lot of airlines are choosing the A321NEO/NEOLR to replace their 757s, all of which are more than 15 years old now. I see Icelandair choosing the A321NEO to replace their 757s, in...I would say the middle of the 20s. Even before the grounding of the MAX, ordering it was a mistake. Icelandair should have chosen the A321NEO over the MAX, the MAX-8 isn't the right 757 replacement. Icelandair could use them on routes out of KEF to Northern Europe as well as routes to the US and Canada. KEF-YYZ for example. A NEOLR could do KEF-DEN or even KEF-MAD, KEF-BCN, or KEF-HEL just to name a few. Not sure if a NEOLR could do KEF-SEA nonstop Westbound with headwinds, maybe the all new XLR could, if that one is too far for a 321NEOLR then they should consider the 787-8.

WOW Air even flew several times nonstop KEF-LAX, KEF-SFO and KEF-MIA with their A 321neo and it was „only“ a NEO!
So I guess no prob for FI to fly these routes with an LR.

Hello everyone, first post here. Off coures Anet is well known to me for years and I read lot of cool stuff here. But in fact I signed up, because I was kind of distracted by this post and had a inner need to answer:

American 767 wrote:

....A NEOLR could do KEF-DEN or even KEF-MAD, KEF-BCN, or KEF-HEL just to name a few. Not sure if a NEOLR could do KEF-SEA nonstop Westbound with headwinds, maybe the all new XLR could, if that one is too far for a 321NEOLR then they should consider the 787-8.

A NEOLR could do... wait, KEF-MAD or KEF-HEL? MAD is less than 1600nm, HEL just shy above 1300nm - KEF-DEN is about twice that distance! By all Airbus fandom, but no one needs an A321LR for these european destinations. Or a NEO at all, even an E-190AR (non E2) easily manages that distance. For comparison, back in the days, Armavia flew from Yerevan to Zurich (which is 1602nm, according to the beautiful distance measuring thing called great circle mapper) with a CRJ200LR! Yes, please stop thinking about how painful this must have been for the passenger, it's better for your mental health.

Seattle and Denver are both in the 3100 - 3200nm frame, so this should be easily doable for a 4000nm plane, even with lot of headwinds. Iceland is already quite a bit westward...

marcogr12 wrote:

Well they can't wait for the MAX too long..But why can't they lease 738s and 739ER for european destinations and the A321XLR for TATL ops?

The FI network doesn't really work like that, they need an aircraft that can go Europe-KEF-NA-KEF-Europe in a 24 hour cycle.
Recent examples:
TF-FIA from noon on 5 Feb to noon on 6 Feb: ARN-KEF-YYZ-KEF-MUC
TF-FIO from noon on 2 Feb to noon on 3 Feb: BRU-KEF-ORD-KEF-MAN
TF-FIT from noon on 7 Feb to noon on 8 Feb: OSL-KEF-YYZ-KEF-DUB

So while some aircraft do a few sequential KEF-Europe-KEF rotations, a lot of the fleet needs to cover both European and TATL destinations simultaneously.

But they need sth. smaller than a 321 or 757, sth at the pax range of 150-170pax, which would be either a 320, 738 or A223, for the thinner routes and for frequency...

GCT64 wrote:

marcogr12 wrote:

Well they can't wait for the MAX too long..But why can't they lease 738s and 739ER for european destinations and the A321XLR for TATL ops?

The FI network doesn't really work like that, they need an aircraft that can go Europe-KEF-NA-KEF-Europe in a 24 hour cycle.
Recent examples:
TF-FIA from noon on 5 Feb to noon on 6 Feb: ARN-KEF-YYZ-KEF-MUC
TF-FIO from noon on 2 Feb to noon on 3 Feb: BRU-KEF-ORD-KEF-MAN
TF-FIT from noon on 7 Feb to noon on 8 Feb: OSL-KEF-YYZ-KEF-DUB

So while some aircraft do a few sequential KEF-Europe-KEF rotations, a lot of the fleet needs to cover both European and TATL destinations simultaneously.

Exactly ! And Icelandair has traditionally been a US customer > Boeing ( and before that they used DC-8:s ) so it would certainly certainly be a big step for them to switch to Airbus.

Are they still involved with the Cabo Verde airline? I remember they were planning on giving them some of the B757s as they were about to receive the MAXes.

Blerg wrote:

Are they still involved with the Cabo Verde airline? I remember they were planning on giving them some of the B757s as they were about to receive the MAXes.

Pretty much still involved, they just appointed a new CEO previously with Loftleidir Icelandic as Senior vice president of sales and marketing.

https://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news ... -airlines/

A mix of A330 NEO (Or alternatively 787s or NMAs), A321 XLR, and mayyybe A320s is perfect for Iceland Air. Iceland Air 757s probably fly the most long haul routes of any airline. I am not sure why they picked the 737-8 in the first place.

opticalilyushin wrote:

American 767 wrote:

Not sure if a NEOLR could do KEF-SEA nonstop Westbound with headwinds, maybe the all new XLR could, if that one is too far for a 321NEOLR then they should consider the 787-8.

It should be fine for Seattle. Airbus claims it already has superior range to a 757, and the approx. 25% better fuel efficiency sweetens the deal. The aircraft (and the XLR) would take a small hit on cargo capacity, but even if they went for the Max as a full replacement they'd have the same issue.

I believe a WOW air non LR managed to fly KEF-LAX with a very light load.

speedbird52 wrote:

A mix of A330 NEO (Or alternatively 787s or NMAs), A321 XLR, and mayyybe A320s is perfect for Iceland Air. Iceland Air 757s probably fly the most long haul routes of any airline. I am not sure why they picked the 737-8 in the first place.

Icelandair is a strict Boeing airline. The 737-8 and -9 were bought to serve Europe and the east coast of North America. At the time they were ordered, many expected the NMA to be launched soon. Icelandair expected to get in as a launch customer. The NMA would have replaced both the 757 and 767 at Icelandair.
No even when the NMA should be launched, the timeframe of a possible EIS is not forseable.

Airbus has upped the came with the A321XLR (or A321-271NY). Icelandair could buy that frame and go single type fleet. Icelandair can start with buying the A321LR now. The only problem not solved with the A321neo would be flying bigger passenger numbers into slot restricted airports. Two A330neo would solve that.

I assume, that Icelandair will switch, they will switch completely. Of course that would take a few years.

I don't know that FI taking 321LR or XLR would be that much of a coup... it's hard to think of a carrier where the size / range / possibility to containerize would be better suited to 321LR's. I think it may have been a little bit of a coup for Boeing to have kept the FI in the fold, and would wonder if it was aggressive pricing or the relationship Boeing traditionally had with them which had won the Max order.

Icelandic business newspaper Viðskiptablaðið has some sources saying that Icelandair may end up cutting its fleet down by more than half, perhaps as small as 12 aircraft. Of course, all long term plans have been severely disrupted at most airlines in the world. I wonder what this means for Ielandair's fleet plans. Could this potentially accelerate a switch to an all Airbus fleet? Both because the fleet will be smaller and faster to replace and because there might be more recently built second hand A320/A321 NEOs coming to the market soon and with earlier delivery slots on new ones are also becoming available. But I guess there might be some issues getting rid of the existing fleet. The older 757s can be retired but finding someone to take the MAX off their hands is going to be difficult.

hvusslax wrote:

Icelandic business newspaper Viðskiptablaðið has some sources saying that Icelandair may end up cutting its fleet down by more than half, perhaps as small as 12 aircraft. Of course, all long term plans have been severely disrupted at most airlines in the world. I wonder what this means for Ielandair's fleet plans. Could this potentially accelerate a switch to an all Airbus fleet? Both because the fleet will be smaller and faster to replace and because there might be more recently built second hand A320/A321 NEOs coming to the market soon and with earlier delivery slots on new ones are also becoming available. But I guess there might be some issues getting rid of the existing fleet. The older 757s can be retired but finding someone to take the MAX off their hands is going to be difficult.

I don't think Icelandair will be able to get rid of their MAX aircraft, at least, not before its RTS.
Im not a fanboy but the A320-family would be the best 757 replacement for Icelandair and it doesn't make sense to operate them next to the MAX.
What is the reason that they went for the MAX in the first place?

I don't know how bankruptcy's are handled in Iceland, but what would happend if Icelandair filled for bankruptcy?
Could they emerge from bankruptcy with half their fleet and with enough job cuts to become profitably after Covid-19?

How far could A321neo and A320neo fly from KEF? Could they fly to all the places B757 flies to right now?

IWMBH wrote:

hvusslax wrote:

Icelandic business newspaper Viðskiptablaðið has some sources saying that Icelandair may end up cutting its fleet down by more than half, perhaps as small as 12 aircraft. Of course, all long term plans have been severely disrupted at most airlines in the world. I wonder what this means for Ielandair's fleet plans. Could this potentially accelerate a switch to an all Airbus fleet? Both because the fleet will be smaller and faster to replace and because there might be more recently built second hand A320/A321 NEOs coming to the market soon and with earlier delivery slots on new ones are also becoming available. But I guess there might be some issues getting rid of the existing fleet. The older 757s can be retired but finding someone to take the MAX off their hands is going to be difficult.

I don't think Icelandair will be able to get rid of their MAX aircraft, at least, not before its RTS.
Im not a fanboy but the A320-family would be the best 757 replacement for Icelandair and it doesn't make sense to operate them next to the MAX.
What is the reason that they went for the MAX in the first place?

Price, and I guess availability.

IWMBH wrote:

I don't know how bankruptcy's are handled in Iceland, but what would happend if Icelandair filled for bankruptcy?
Could they emerge from bankruptcy with half their fleet and with enough job cuts to become profitably after Covid-19?

Not sure about that either, but it may very well be the best solution. Getting rid of unwanted aircraft with all obligations, let the banks sort out the MAX's FI has stored and let Boeing find a new customer for the ones undelivered. Starting again with some of the youngest 757s, finding some A320neo's left by insolvent airlines, and order A321XLR's to eventually replace 757s.

But I realize it sounds simpler than it will be in reality.

Blerg wrote:

How far could A321neo and A320neo fly from KEF? Could they fly to all the places B757 flies to right now?

I think they could handle all of the European network, but not to all the US destinations (looking at their route map now quite a few including YVR look out of reach. Though with demand predicted to drop anyway, maybe they could put these routes on hold until they're able to get XLRs from 2023, complementing A20N/A21Ns which they get in the meantime. I doubt there'll be many NEOs on the used market coming out of this as many of them are with larger, more financially resilient carriers (who would be more likely to get rid of older aircraft) but I'm sure there will be enough for Icelandair to pick up a few

This could be the perfect chance for Icelandair to get some really cheap 321neos as even though there is a massive backlog. A lot of airlines are not in a position to accept new aircraft. I can see For example Air Asia a massive Airbus carrier not really in a position to accept new A321 Neos as they are struggling to breathe...

Airbus would be stupid not to do a deal with Icelandair...