Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:09 am

As 4-engine jets are phased out of the European fleets and maximum ranges of narrow bodies are have increased to up to 4700 nmi, it seems like the widebody fleets of the western world will diminish. On the other hand as traffic increases pressure on the busiest runways may mean that airports will change landing fees to encourage larger jets.

It seems to me that certainly American Airlines will probably reduce their wide-body fleet. They are the least profitable of the major airlines, and they have the fewest number of Trans Pacific flights. Increasingly the South American and European destinations will be reachable by A321 XLR. On the other hand AA has one of the youngest average age of their widebodies.

I am not sure about the other five airlines on this list. I have included the average age of each type to the right
70 KLM 10.7
13 Airbus A330 10.9
11 Boeing 747 21.7
29 Boeing 777 11.2
17 Boeing 787 Dreamliner 2.5

110 Air France 13.0
15 Airbus A330 17.3
4 Airbus A340 21.4
3 Airbus A350 XWB 0.3
9 Airbus A380 8.9
70 Boeing 777 14.4
9 Boeing 787 Dreamliner 2.0

110 Lufthansa 11.9
15 Airbus A330 12.0
34 Airbus A340 17.2
15 Airbus A350 XWB 2.0
14 Airbus A380 8.4
32 Boeing 747 12.3

136 British Airways 14.2
4 Airbus A350-1000 0.3
12 Airbus A380-800 5.8
32 Boeing 747-400 22.7
46 Boeing 777-200 20.2
12 Boeing 777-300 7.3
12 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner 4.6
18 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner 3.6

149 American 11.9
15 Airbus A330-200 8.2
9 Airbus A330-300 19.5
16 Boeing 767-300 19.7
47 Boeing 777-200 19.2
20 Boeing 777-300 6.0
20 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner 4.3
22 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner 2.3

154 Delta Airlines 16.5
11 Airbus A330-200 14.9
31 Airbus A330-300 11.1
4 Airbus A330-900 0.6
13 Airbus A350 XWB 2.0
56 Boeing 767-300 23.7
21 Boeing 767-400 19.1
18 Boeing 777-200 15.0

199 United Airlines 15.2
38 Boeing 767-200 24.1
16 Boeing 767-300 18.4
74 Boeing 777-200 20.7
21 Boeing 777-300 2.3
12 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner 1.0
26 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner 6.6
12 Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner 3.8






























502
 
johns624
Posts: 2794
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:21 am

Your premise is wrong. A destination may be reachable by an A321 but if it can't carry the number of passengers on that route, a bigger aircraft will have to be used.
 
EWRamp
Posts: 85
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:46 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:28 am

United does not have any 767-200s in their fleet. They have 38 767-300s and 16 767-400s
 
Rossiya747
Posts: 322
Joined: Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:56 am

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:40 am

UA's SFO-SIN will not be replaced by an A321, so no, the fleet will not diminish. Yes, a few can be replaced by A321XLR (American's A330 from PHL-DBV) but unless you can make an A321-sized aircraft that can fly SYD-LAX then the WB fleet will not disappear. Also, domestic/short-range WB flights with a lot of demand will not be replaced by a bunch of NBs because it will just be not cost-efficient (some of UA's ORD-EWR flights & etc.)
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:36 am

johns624 wrote:
Your premise is wrong. A destination may be reachable by an A321 but if it can't carry the number of passengers on that route, a bigger aircraft will have to be used.


I never said that the widebody would be replaced completely. I am not an idiot. I asked do you think the number of widebodies will diminish.

149 American 11.9 years .. Current widebody fleet
15 Airbus A330-200 8.2
9 Airbus A330-300 19.5
16 Boeing 767-300 19.7
47 Boeing 777-200 19.2
20 Boeing 777-300 6.0
20 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner 4.3
22 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner 2.3

I should add that the idea that American Airlines widebody fleet will diminish is pure speculation on my part. AA's announcements are simply that they will eliminate two of their oldest models (B767-300 and A330-300), and will retire some of their older B777-200s. These will be replaced with Dreamliners.

149 American Possible widebody fleet in the near future
15 Airbus A330-200
42 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner
47 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner
20 Boeing 777-300
25 Boeing 777-200

Intelligent answers are appreciated, but please don't point out that narrow-body jets can't fly to Singapore from the US. Everyone knows the obvious.
 
speedbird52
Posts: 1013
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:30 am

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:00 am

VLAs not being successful does not mean large aircraft in general are not successful: The trend seems to be airlines picking larger variants of aircraft over the smaller ones. Some airlines show more bias towards large aircraft than others. BA is a great example: Take a look at the aircraft that are replacing their 747 fleet. A380s, A350-1000s, 777-9s, and 777-300ERs. None of the mentioned aircraft have a significant decrease in premium seat count over the 747.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:31 am

speedbird52 wrote:
VLAs not being successful does not mean large aircraft in general are not successful: The trend seems to be airlines picking larger variants of aircraft over the smaller ones. Some airlines show more bias towards large aircraft than others. BA is a great example: Take a look at the aircraft that are replacing their 747 fleet. A380s, A350-1000s, 777-9s, and 777-300ERs. None of the mentioned aircraft have a significant decrease in premium seat count over the 747.


It seems that there has been a downturn in large widebody orders in the last five years (at least from Boeing). In general it seems that US airlines are biased towards using smaller jets if possible (at least compared to Europe and Asia). Norwegian Long Haul operates 21 Dreamliners in nearly a single class configuration (very limited premium seating). The only airline in the US besides the big 3 to operate a dual aisle jet is Hawaiian Air, and it doesn't seem like that is going to change in my lifetime.

777-300ER orders
2000 61
2001 7
2002 11
2003 4
2004 28
2005 98
2006 35
2007 88
2008 32
2009 18
2010 61
2011 150
2012 73
2013 43
2014 47
2015 22
2016 21
2017 22
2018 13
2019 2

777X orders
2013 66
2014 220
2015 20
2017 20
2019 18

787-10 orders
2008 8
2010 10
2011 14
2013 103
2015 21
2017 19
2019 21


787-9 orders
2004 19
2005 48
2006 38
2007 158
2008 44
2009 11
2010 12
2011 25
2012 33
2013 40
2014 42
2015 62
2016 75
2017 68
2018 105
2019 90
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:45 am

Rossiya747 wrote:
unless you can make an A321-sized aircraft that can fly SYD-LAX then the WB fleet will not disappear.


Please refrain from using absolutes. It is obvious that the WB fleet will not disappear. The question is will the fleet diminish in size.

When the B747 program began in the 1960s nearly every airline in the US ordered at least some. Once ETOPS went into affect in the 1980s only United and Northwest ever ordered a new B747 since they were still flying TransPacific. It doesn't mean every airline immediately sold their B747s.

Widebody Fleet - Airline - Average Age of widebodies
70 KLM 10.7
110 Air France 13.0
110 Lufthansa 11.9
136 British Airways 14.2
149 American 11.9
154 Delta Airlines 16.5
199 United Airlines 15.2

American Airlines has 47 Dreamliners on order, but to the best of my knowledge they intend to retire 47 widebodies when these are delivered.
 
inkjet7
Posts: 173
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:32 am

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:03 am

PacoMartin wrote:
70 KLM 10.7

11 Boeing 747 21.7


Three of those 11 are freighters.
 
steman
Posts: 1642
Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2000 4:55 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:12 am

I´m not quite sure the concept of "Western World" applies to aviation or if it is actually appropriate to speak of Western World when discussing about long haul fleets. Aviation is globalized and there are only 2 aircraft manufacturers who offer widebodied long haul airliners. So maybe you wanted to talk about Transatlantic widebody fleets? In that case, where are the likes of Air Canada, LATAM, Iberia? I just don´t understand the premises of your post. The 3 US Majors compared to 4 of the European majors? Shouldn´t KL and AF be counted together? What about the other long haul fleets of the IAG and Lufthansa Group?
Just trying to understand what I´m reading here.
 
jfk777
Posts: 7356
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:44 pm

The A321 XLR is great for thin medium haul routes like Miami to Brasilia but not for Miami to GRU. IT's good from smaller cities to London and CDG & from JFK & ORD to Glasgow, Edinburgh, Shannon and Dublin. Don't see them flying JFK to Lagos.
 
johns624
Posts: 2794
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:14 pm

With the increase in air travel, there will still be as many WBs as there are today, there will just be more, longer range NBs.
 
Sokes
Posts: 1644
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:43 pm

PacoMartin wrote:

136 British Airways 14.2
4 Airbus A350-1000 0.3
12 Airbus A380-800 5.8
32 Boeing 747-400 22.7
46 Boeing 777-200 20.2
12 Boeing 777-300 7.3
12 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner 4.6
18 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner 3.6


Wikipedia speaks of 43 B777-200ER, 2 B777-200 and 12 B777-300ER.
Even though it's interesting that they like to use so many old B747-400 and B777-200ER.
Are the B747 for transatlantic and the B777-200ER for Asia/ US West coast?
BA has 48 wide-bodies plus 24 options for B777-9 on order. I assume for their short transatlantic hops second hand B777-300ER should splendidly do. (As compared to B747-400). 18 B777-9 + 24 options I assume are for Asia/ US West coast. But why to replace their remaining B777-200ER and B747-400 with new planes?

BA has 12 A320Neo and 5 A321Neo on order. If BA doesn't switch to narrow-bodies for transatlantic, I doubt continental Europe will switch.
As I mentioned before, I believe there is some limit what a 35 m wing can reasonable do.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:46 pm

steman wrote:
I just don´t understand the premises of your post.


Let me use an example of what I mean. Even though the last of the B747s were retired just a few years ago from Delta and United, the last major order was made in 1996-1997. It makes sense to say that the era of four engine jet acquisitions by US airlines ended at this time even though there were at least thre cleanup orders at a later date. Now we all know that airbus didn't completely accept that milestone, and they tried very hard to sell the A340 and A380 to US airlines.

United Airlines final orders of B747
1996 14 orders
1997 3 orders
1998 final order on 14. Apr. 1998
Northwest Airlines ordered two B747s on 16. Jan. 2001

On the GE90-115B engine, "the most powerful engine in the world" logged its first ground tests in November 2001 and was certified by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), on July 30, 2003. This certification was a significant milestone to ending the production of all four engine jets for passenger use.

At present, the US flies a fleet of 524 widebody aircraft
199 United Airlines
154 Delta Airlines
149 American
24 Hawaiian Airlines

The question is what do you see happening to the size of this fleet in the next few decades? Do you see it shrinking, staying the same, or gettting much bigger? There is no wrong answer.

Perhaps a Norwegian style LCC airline built around a widebody will develop in the US, and perhaps United will start using Dreamliners on busy domestic trunk routes and the number of widebodies will grow.

Perhaps the airlines will continue to replace old widebody aircraft with new widebody aircraft, but narrowbody aircraft will be responsible for growth. The US widebody fleet will stay near the present day size of 524 aircraft.

Perhaps the 87 Dreamliners on order for AA will be the basis for American's future fleet, and AA will only order more fuel efficient long range narrow body aircraft for future growth. AA seems to lose a lot of money on long range routes.

So far the acquisition of 17 A321neos by Hawaiian Airlines has not led to terminating a single one of the dozen A330s on lease or the retirement or selling of the dozen A330s they own. They are maintained for the busy routs to LAX, SFO, LAS, and PHX plus some new long range routes at JFK and BOS. HA is going to get Dreamliners delivered next year. Will that result in termination of A330 leases, or will HA just try to keep growing?

What about European fleets? Will they begin favoring narrow body aircraft to the point that their widebody fleets will decrease? Or will crowded airports in London, Paris, and Frankfurt mean that they will stay with large jets?
 
johns624
Posts: 2794
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:57 pm

PacoMartin wrote:

There is no wrong answer.

Yet, you berate anyone who doesn't agree with you.
 
johns624
Posts: 2794
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:15 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
I am not an idiot.
Is this a medically proven fact or are you opening up another topic for discussion? :)
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:53 pm

johns624 wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
There is no wrong answer.
Yet, you berate anyone who doesn't agree with you.


First of all, I asked a question, and I did not express an opinion. You can't disagree with a question.

I am berating people who respond with a stupid non-sequitur, like "until we have a narrow body that flies from EWR to SIN we will need widebodies". Another non-sequitur is "wide bodies carry more passengers than narrow bodies".

Emirates has a fleet of 259 widebodies and it has 203 widebodies on order. It is obvious that Emirates does not intend all of the jets on order to be replacements.
Qatar Airways has a fleet of 169 widebodies and it has 112 widebodies on order. It is obvious that Qatar Airways does not intend all of the jets on order to be replacements.

American Airlines has a fleet of 149 widebodies and it has 47 widebodies on order. It looks like nearly every new widebody will be a replacement.
Delta Airlines has a fleet of 154 widebodies and it has 49 widebodies on order. It looks like nearly every new widebody will be a replacement.
United Airlines has a fleet of 199 widebodies and it has 15 widebodies on order from Boeing and 45 widebodies on order from Airbus delayed until 2027. By the time the Airbus order is delivered (if ever) they will need them for replacements.

United Airlines has a fleet of 74 B777-200s. With the exception of 4 of them, the other 70 are between 17.9 and 25.6 years old. Many of them are used on busy domestic trunk routes like EWR-SFO where the carrying capacity is more of value than their range. But as they age, will United purchase new widebodies to replace them or simply fly larger narrowbodies with better fuel economy.

My personal inclination is to think the widebody fleet will not get significantly bigger and that the major US mainline airlines are going to have more than 1000 narrowbodies each. In Europe, I think the widebody fleet will continue to grow as the airports don't have enough runways. I am unsure about Asia which seems to be gobbling up narrowbodies at an incredible pace. I don't know if they can build runways fast enough.
Last edited by PacoMartin on Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Andy33
Posts: 2567
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:30 am

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:01 pm

Sokes wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:

136 British Airways 14.2
4 Airbus A350-1000 0.3
12 Airbus A380-800 5.8
32 Boeing 747-400 22.7
46 Boeing 777-200 20.2
12 Boeing 777-300 7.3
12 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner 4.6
18 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner 3.6


Wikipedia speaks of 43 B777-200ER, 2 B777-200 and 12 B777-300ER.
Even though it's interesting that they like to use so many old B747-400 and B777-200ER.
Are the B747 for transatlantic and the B777-200ER for Asia/ US West coast?
BA has 48 wide-bodies plus 24 options for B777-9 on order. I assume for their short transatlantic hops second hand B777-300ER should splendidly do. (As compared to B747-400). 18 B777-9 + 24 options I assume are for Asia/ US West coast. But why to replace their remaining B777-200ER and B747-400 with new planes?

BA has 12 A320Neo and 5 A321Neo on order. If BA doesn't switch to narrow-bodies for transatlantic, I doubt continental Europe will switch.
As I mentioned before, I believe there is some limit what a 35 m wing can reasonable do.

There's been extensive discussion on BA's fleet replacement plans on this forum But BA is just part of the IAG group, which also includes Iberia, Aer Lingus and Level with transatlantic services, and will probably include Air Europa by the end of the year. It is Aer Lingus which will be pioneering A321 transatlantic operations for the group.
As far as BA itself is concerned, they have always believed in extracting the maximum economic life from each frame on a "one careful owner" basis, and 747 operations range right across North America at the moment (along with Africa). In fact you'll find just about every widebody type in the fleet being used on transatlantic services, and the 787-10s which start delivery this year will appear there too. Expected this year are also the four extra late-model 77Ws ordered last year.
The 772 non-ERs are meant to leave this year, and more 747s will go every year up to the finale in early 2024. Only then will 772ERs start leaving - and although they have some elderly ones, they also have 2009 examples...
 
steman
Posts: 1642
Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2000 4:55 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:27 pm

@PacoMartin,

what I gather from your explanations and the data you provided is that growth in Widebody fleets is happening elsewhere, that´s to say outside of the US. Not sure if that´s the case for the major European groups. To me it looks they are at their highest number of widebody aircrafts in their fleets. Not sure how it will evolve but if you take LH alone, it has a lot of orders, like 70 outstanding orders for widebody which will not all be for replacement. So, the growth is happening elsewhere, Middle East and Asia mostly. To go back to your original post about the Western World, than yes, in this case we could say that the Western World (reducing it to only the US and part of Europe) is overall not growing its widebody fleets. But growth in Aviation in general has been in other parts of the world for a few decades already. So, not really anything new here.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:17 pm

Andy33 wrote:
It is Aer Lingus which will be pioneering A321 transatlantic operations for the group.


Aer Lingus makes sense, more because they have a preclearance facility in DUBLIN than because it is slightly closer. All Aer Lingus destinations in US are within 4700 nmi, but the three west coast ones probably not within range given the trade winds ( a British Airways 747 operated the flight from JFK to LHR in just 4hr56min) I wonder how many flights must stop to refuel in Gander Airport in Canada?

Do you think Aer Lingus is going to fly the A321 to one of the established airports, or are they going to seek out new ones like PVD, MHT or ISP in the Northeast/ Mid Atlantic? Possibly even DFW (3,885 nm) to make connections on AA?

Aer Lingus DUB- (nautical miles)
BOS 2,601
BDL 2,675
JFK 2,763
EWR 2,774
PHL 2,844
IAD 2,958
ORD 3,192
MSP 3,246
MCO 3,539
MIA 3,619
SEA 3,945
SFO 4,430
LAX 4,502


I know it is a long shot, but ABE is only 2,820 nmi from DUB and it has easy access to 1 million people who live within a 25 miles radius.
ABE -PHL/ EWR is 48 / 58 nmi
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:39 pm

steman wrote:
To go back to your original post about the Western World, than yes, in this case we could say that the Western World (reducing it to only the US and part of Europe) is overall not growing its widebody fleets. But growth in Aviation in general has been in other parts of the world for a few decades already. So, not really anything new here.


In the US a significant question is what happens to the fleet of 147 B767s with an average age of 22.1 years and all over 16.5 years. A total of 37 of the are B767-400ERs.
The 787-8 was targeted to replace the Boeing 767-200ER and -300ER. When it was launched, a new B787-8 was to cost only slightly more than the B767-300ER, valued new for $85 million at its 1990s peak, but it ended being 20% more costly.
.
The A321XLR does not have the range or the capacity of the B767. But some of the shorter routes might be replaceable with XLR if you can increase frequency to make up capacity. It doesn't look like waiting for the NMA is much of an option.
 
johns624
Posts: 2794
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:09 pm

Another thing to consider is that a WB doesn't equal a WB. Many of the planes due for replacement are 763s and 772s. They are being replaced by 7810s, 339s, 3510s and 779s, all bigger planes.
 
airzona11
Posts: 1755
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:27 am

Another 321xlr taking over the money making international flying scene. As airlines hubs get bigger and consolidate with JV flying, wide bodies are not going anywhere. Cargo is a contributing factor too. AA has A333s and 763s on the way out. But greater number of 787s coming in. DL is growing average number of seats adding A339s as 763s leave. Wide body numbers going up.

Great data though, thanks for posting.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:33 am

johns624 wrote:
Another thing to consider is that a WB doesn't equal a WB. Many of the planes due for replacement are 763s and 772s. They are being replaced by 7810s, 339s, 3510s and 779s, all bigger planes.


I remember articles written about 2-3 years ago that Delta plan to replace 763s with 339s was dangerously foolhardy since the TATL market was so saturated. They would never be able to fill the larger planes.
Motley Fool:Feb 17, 2018 wrote:
the alternatives for replacing Delta's roughly 80 767s are far from ideal. In late 2014, the carrier ordered 25 A330-900neos from Airbus to replace some of its older 767s. However, while the A330-900neo will have much lower unit costs than the planes it will replace, it will probably have about 40% more seats than Delta's 767-300ERs.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/ ... es-wh.aspx


Delta had 208-226 seats in the 763 and 238 in their 764. The replacement 339s have 281 seats, so 40% was a bit of an overestimate.
Of course, Delta has had two incredible years and they have actually ordered more 339s above the original order of 25 jets. But they still have a lot of 767s without a proper replacement.

56 Boeing 767-300 23.7 Years
21 Boeing 767-400 19.1 Years
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:06 am

airzona11 wrote:
Great data though, thanks for posting.


I think it is very difficult to discuss anything without data. It seems to irritate some people who seem to think that opinions should be tossed around without any backup.

Of course, sometimes the data is confusing. AA spent billions to make sure they had the youngest and most fuel-efficient fleet of the four major airlines. The oldest jet in their fleet is 26.6 yrs old. Yet their financial performance is by far the worst of the four airlines.

Average age of fleet in years: widebody / narrowbody Airline mainline feet
15.17 / 15.95 yrs United Airlines 15.8 yrs
16.46 / 14.89 yrs Delta Airlines 15.2 yrs
11.90 / 11.02 yrs American 11.2 yrs
00.00 / 11.90 yrs Southwest 11.9 yrs
 
hkcanadaexpat
Posts: 4086
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:33 am

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:48 am

PacoMartin wrote:
johns624 wrote:
Another thing to consider is that a WB doesn't equal a WB. Many of the planes due for replacement are 763s and 772s. They are being replaced by 7810s, 339s, 3510s and 779s, all bigger planes.


I remember articles written about 2-3 years ago that Delta plan to replace 763s with 339s was dangerously foolhardy since the TATL market was so saturated. They would never be able to fill the larger planes.
Motley Fool:Feb 17, 2018 wrote:
the alternatives for replacing Delta's roughly 80 767s are far from ideal. In late 2014, the carrier ordered 25 A330-900neos from Airbus to replace some of its older 767s. However, while the A330-900neo will have much lower unit costs than the planes it will replace, it will probably have about 40% more seats than Delta's 767-300ERs.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/ ... es-wh.aspx


Delta had 208-226 seats in the 763 and 238 in their 764. The replacement 339s have 281 seats, so 40% was a bit of an overestimate.
Of course, Delta has had two incredible years and they have actually ordered more 339s above the original order of 25 jets. But they still have a lot of 767s without a proper replacement.

56 Boeing 767-300 23.7 Years
21 Boeing 767-400 19.1 Years

You have to tone down the rethoric. If you followed the DL widebody thread you'd be better educated and not make baseless vanilla conclusions.
First of all, the idea that DL is replacing 763s with 339s and adding 40% of seats on each TATL route is wrong.
You do realize that DL's strategy is to grow moderately seats on all routes as the world economy grows.
So the average route will grow marginally by seat count. 763->332->764->339->772->333->359 (yes SEA-TPAC went from 76W to 339 but the average route will not, especially TATL)
On top of that DL has a widebody product strategy. Not all frames (763/332/333) will have Delta One Suite so route allocations will also be impacted on that.

DL's strategy when it comes to widebody fleet growth is to be as flexible as humanly possible.
For example, DL added 6 widebodies in 2019. Retired 0. It intended on retiring a handful of older 76Ws but the economy is doing so well, the 76Ls are now going through life extension programs to fly on the JFK-LAX rotations. If the economy tanks, those 76Ws are fully paid for and depreciated so can be parked overnight.
Another 9 wildebodies should be delivered this year (7x 339 + 2x 359). Maybe more depending on timing of LATAM deal. How many widebodies will be retired?
Not even DL knows. They are playing the market live. Taking the pulse of the economy. Also taking the pulse of the secondary jet market (some younger 76Ws maybe sold to Amazon).
Right now you're looking at maybe 4x 76W retirements (ex-Gulf). Maybe.
 
User avatar
ua900
Moderator
Posts: 1599
Joined: Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:14 am

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:50 am

PacoMartin wrote:
As 4-engine jets are phased out of the European fleets and maximum ranges of narrow bodies are have increased to up to 4700 nmi, it seems like the widebody fleets of the western world will diminish. On the other hand as traffic increases pressure on the busiest runways may mean that airports will change landing fees to encourage larger jets.

It seems to me that certainly American Airlines will probably reduce their wide-body fleet. They are the least profitable of the major airlines, and they have the fewest number of Trans Pacific flights. Increasingly the South American and European destinations will be reachable by A321 XLR. On the other hand AA has one of the youngest average age of their widebodies.


Here's my 2 cents since there's no wrong answer. 4 holers are on their way out throughout the world since 2 engine planes are now able to do ETOPS in most places. I'd say most of the replacements are still widebodies, e.g. WB is replaced by WB. The XLR is a good 757 TATL replacement, as well as the premium transcon and US-Northern South America type routes, especially if they can sell flatbeds upfront instead of barcaloungers. Most of the XLR routes were 757 routes, e.g. NB is replaced by NB.

In my view, many airline order books suggest more than a 1:1 replacement, they suggest modest capacity growth for both WB and NB fleets. Look at all the 737 max orders and the 32x orders that are pending, and all the 787 / 77x orders / 350 / 339, there's growth all around. While you can say something like "narrowbody numbers will grow by 70%, while widebody numbers will only grow by 55%" (not including retirements), different growth rates don't necessarily mean that growth in NBs come at the expense of WBs.

PacoMartin wrote:
At present, the US flies a fleet of 524 widebody aircraft
199 United Airlines
154 Delta Airlines
149 American
24 Hawaiian Airlines

The question is what do you see happening to the size of this fleet in the next few decades? Do you see it shrinking, staying the same, or gettting much bigger? There is no wrong answer.


Speaking for UA as a UA 1K MM, I'd say they'll expand WBs by around 5-10%, most notably with more Dreamliners given that that plane has opened up so many amazing new long and thin routes for UA over the past half-decade.

I see the A321XLR and the 731 replacing the 757s, the 767s replaced by 787s / 339s and the 350s replacing the 772s down the line. Pretty much all of these replacements involve NB to NB and WB to WB swaps. I'd imagine that the others will follow a similar path, i.e. "moderate growth" as suggested by hkcanadaexpat.

Not saying there will never be a WB to NB swap (or vice versa), but I'd attribute that more to seasonal demand than to long term replacement plans, and certainly not on a large scale.
2020: AMS | BRU | DEN | DFW | EWR | FRA | IAH | LAX | MCO | MUC | ORD | PTY | SFO | TXL
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:02 pm

hkcanadaexpat wrote:
Motley Fool:Feb 17, 2018 wrote:
the alternatives for replacing Delta's roughly 80 767s are far from ideal. In late 2014, the carrier ordered 25 A330-900neos from Airbus to replace some of its older 767s. However, while the A330-900neo will have much lower unit costs than the planes it will replace, it will probably have about 40% more seats than Delta's 767-300ERs.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/ ... es-wh.aspx

You have to tone down the rethoric. If you followed the DL widebody thread you'd be better educated and not make baseless vanilla conclusions.
First of all, the idea that DL is replacing 763s with 339s and adding 40% of seats on each TATL route is wrong...


I thought I was perfectly clear that these conclusions were not my own, but were made by analysts that I read roughly 2-3 years ago. I was only quoting them in the context ofthe statement that many of the new widebody jets are larger than the old ones. The Motley Fool article that I quoted was dated Feb 17, 2018. So yell at those authors for making baseless vanilla conclusions.

The title of that article was Delta Air Lines Wants the Boeing "797" ASAP: Here's Why.

============================
Delta emerged from bankruptcy in 2007 and started making regular profits in 2010. Delta's overall 2013 fourth quarter results included an unusual accounting gain related to its financial turnaround. The company’s expectations for future profitability led it to record a non-cash gain of $8 billion in the fourth quarter, which reflects the value of tax benefits carried forward from its past years of financial losses.

So I consider 4th qtr 2013 the start of the "New Delta", the most profitable airline in the country. When the widebody decision was made in 2014 not to go with Boeing aircraft it was quite a shock to people.

Delta news release Nov 2014 wrote:
The widebody A330-900neo, an enhancement of Airbus' successful A330 family featuring greater aerodynamic and economic efficiency, will be deployed on medium-haul trans-Atlantic markets as well as select routes connecting the U.S. West Coast and Asia.


When the purchase decision was made, Delta made one of those non-specific statements about where the jet would be deployed.
 
Sokes
Posts: 1644
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:01 pm

Andy33 wrote:
There's been extensive discussion on BA's fleet replacement plans on this forum ...


Nice summary. I read it with interest.
Why I had a closer look at BA was because they are the one with the shortest distance over the Atlantic. So if they stick to wide-bodies, I expect continental Europe to do the same. But yes, I went off topic.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Sokes
Posts: 1644
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:25 pm

johns624 wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
I am not an idiot.
Is this a medically proven fact or are you opening up another topic for discussion? :)


Interesting question. Indeed oneself can't exclude to be an idiot or, for intelligent people, to have characteristics from a certain personality disorder.
I'm not hinting at you.

PacoMartin wrote:

First of all, I asked a question, and I did not express an opinion. You can't disagree with a question.

I am berating people who respond with a stupid non-sequitur, like "until we have a narrow body that flies from EWR to SIN we will need widebodies". Another non-sequitur is "wide bodies carry more passengers than narrow bodies".



Does it sound like an idiot?


hkcanadaexpat wrote:
You have to tone down the rethoric. If you followed the DL widebody thread you'd be better educated and not make baseless vanilla conclusions.
...
the economy is doing so well, the 76Ls are now going through life extension programs to fly on the JFK-LAX rotations. If the economy tanks, those 76Ws are fully paid for and depreciated so can be parked overnight.


I can't decide if I prefer vanilla or chocolate.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:53 pm

PacoMartin, I salute you for resolutely keeping the topic on track and the discussion of an interesting topic.

Although I am not going to bring the data (as you so rightly pointed out is necessary for a real discussion) I think it is well established that aircraft efficiency has been improving over time and this leads me to the following conclusions

1) Fixing all other items a planes given range is greater than the same plane would have been in earlier times.

2) A larger plane suffers less penalty (relatively not absolute) compared to a smaller plane than previous generations when being used at under fill capacity or at shorter range.

Therefore their are fewer optimum solutions in the range/size charts than previously. And secondly frequency seems to be more important, ergo frequency trumps capacity, except in slot constraints, which are relatively few.

This means the largest NB possible is one optimal point and a medium/large widebody the next. I think we will probably collapse in on these two points overtime not necessarily a single aircraft but a few closing bracketing these points.

As for frequency when pressure is put on an airport for slots what seems to have happened in the US from observing a few airports local to me is that the frequencies of regional services have declined and equipment size has gone up, but this will free up slots at larger airports for more frequency elsewhere, presumably increasing frequency on high demand routes on large NB aircraft, where range is not the deciding factor. Factor 2 effects versatility of a frame "abuse" of frames is less detrimental than in previous times so having a slightly larger frame is not the disadvantage it once was so you can use it less full with lower penalty.

These two factors pull in different directions but what I think it really means is that the sweet spot for an aircraft design is one slightly bigger than the median spot of the curve so it can fulfill multiple rolls in a way that previous generations would have used a specialist because the penalties are lower and the capabilities are higher.

This means that when you need a WB is less frequent, and when you do the same aircraft could be used on more of those missions, and we will eventually see a draw down on types in service.

This also has the potential to re-jig the pilot allocations with fewer pilots in the smaller aircraft sizes, fewer being in the largest sizes and a greater number in the middle region. This will cause some effect in pilot resource efficiency some how.
 
johns624
Posts: 2794
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:56 pm

The Motley Fool isn't really that serious of an investment tool. I wouldn't pay much attention to them as they really don't seem to have experts in any fields.
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:46 pm

But I have seen similar sentiments expressed here normally when it goes against someone's personal preference over the first two letters of the alphabet rather than based on number crunching or even drawing a graph.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:23 pm

johns624 wrote:
The Motley Fool isn't really that serious of an investment tool. I wouldn't pay much attention to them as they really don't seem to have experts in any fields.


There was another analyst that I remember reading that said that Delta was risking the profitability of their TATL operations. I can no longer find the reference. In any case there are only 4 A339 in service and I believe they are all doing TPAC from Seattle. But you would be hard pressed to find an analyst who is critical of anything that Delta does at present.

The airline with the most relatively short TATL routes is American (ranges below are in statute miles). they seem like the airlines most likely to switch over to A321XLR in a significant number of their routes. Also AA flies Trans Atlantic from PHL, JFK, CLT, RDU and MIA (all on the East coast). They only have two routes from the Mountain and Pacific time zones. American Airlines has reported terrible profit numbers for TransAtlantic for the past three years. It makes me think that they are more likely to cut the number of seats and try to use more fuel efficient jets.

PHL
3175 SNN
3273 DUB
3348 EDI
3434 MAN
3458 LIS
3545 LHR
3681 MAD
3728 CDG
3736 AMS
3925 BCN
4025 ZRH
4060 TXL
4175 PRG
4235 BLQ
4248 VCE
4371 FCO
4464 BUD
4605 DBV
5035 ATH

JFK
3452 LHR
3589 MAD
3635 CDG
3643 AMS
3831 BCN
3995 MXP
4278 FCO

CLT
3721 DUB
3992 LHR
4109 MAD
4174 CDG
4358 BCN
4398 FRA
4579 MUC
4813 FCO

ORD
3674 DUB
3953 LHR
4153 CDG
4420 BCN
4670 VCE
4823 FCO
5463 ATH

MIA
4424 MAD
4425 LHR
4589 CDG
4697 BCN
4930 MXP

DFW
3742 KEF
4472 DUB
4750 LHR
4920 AMS
4948 CDG
4965 MAD
5143 FRA
5329 MUC
5614 FCO

RDU 3872 LHR
PHX 5271 LHR
LAX 5456 LHR
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:28 am

AA flies only 7 TATL routes over 5000 miles
PHL 5035 ATH
ORD 5463 ATH
PHX 5271 LHR
LAX 5456 LHR
MIA 5143 FRA
MIA 5329 MUC
MIA 5614 FCO


American only flies four routes in Latin America over 5000 miles
DFW
5286 EZE
JFK
5282 EZE
LAX
6115 EZE
6156 GRU


Virtually every route AA flies Trans-Pacific is over 5000 miles
DFW
6427 NRT
6841 ICN
LAX
5451 NRT
5487 HND
7487 SYD
ORD
6274 NRT

CHINESE ROUTES
DFW
6971 PEK
7351 PVG
8120 HKG
LAX
6251 PEK
6485 PVG
7260 HKG
SEA
5722 PVG


According to BTS data, American has lost money on TransPacific for 14 quarters in a row. Perhaps they are wasting their more fuel efficient Dreamliners on TATL routes and they can be replaced with XLRs leaving only the most fuel efficient jets for Trans Pacific.

I suspect that American's issues with losing money on Trans Ocean markets is deeper than just fuel efficiency.
 
User avatar
FLALEFTY
Posts: 778
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:33 am

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:58 am

PacoMartin wrote:
johns624 wrote:
The Motley Fool isn't really that serious of an investment tool. I wouldn't pay much attention to them as they really don't seem to have experts in any fields.


There was another analyst that I remember reading that said that Delta was risking the profitability of their TATL operations. I can no longer find the reference. In any case there are only 4 A339 in service and I believe they are all doing TPAC from Seattle. But you would be hard pressed to find an analyst who is critical of anything that Delta does at present.

The airline with the most relatively short TATL routes is American (ranges below are in statute miles). they seem like the airlines most likely to switch over to A321XLR in a significant number of their routes. Also AA flies Trans Atlantic from PHL, JFK, CLT, RDU and MIA (all on the East coast). They only have two routes from the Mountain and Pacific time zones. American Airlines has reported terrible profit numbers for TransAtlantic for the past three years. It makes me think that they are more likely to cut the number of seats and try to use more fuel efficient jets.

PHL
3175 SNN
3273 DUB
3348 EDI
3434 MAN
3458 LIS
3545 LHR
3681 MAD
3728 CDG
3736 AMS
3925 BCN
4025 ZRH
4060 TXL
4175 PRG
4235 BLQ
4248 VCE
4371 FCO
4464 BUD
4605 DBV
5035 ATH

JFK
3452 LHR
3589 MAD
3635 CDG
3643 AMS
3831 BCN
3995 MXP
4278 FCO

CLT
3721 DUB
3992 LHR
4109 MAD
4174 CDG
4358 BCN
4398 FRA
4579 MUC
4813 FCO

ORD
3674 DUB
3953 LHR
4153 CDG
4420 BCN
4670 VCE
4823 FCO
5463 ATH

MIA
4424 MAD
4425 LHR
4589 CDG
4697 BCN
4930 MXP

DFW
3742 KEF
4472 DUB
4750 LHR
4920 AMS
4948 CDG
4965 MAD
5143 FRA
5329 MUC
5614 FCO

RDU 3872 LHR
PHX 5271 LHR
LAX 5456 LHR


It will be interesting when AA starts getting their A321XLR's. The current pilot contract calls for a hourly rate for 319/320/321 drivers that is about 5% less than 757 drivers. Perhaps they have amended their agreement to allow for XLR pilots to be paid 757 rates? But then will come an internal squabble over who on the seniority list gets first pick at 321XLR trips? Former 757 drivers who will need full transitional simulator certification, or 321 drivers who will need just minor differences training? The latter would be much cheaper for AA, but the pilots may not agree.

https://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/air ... n_airlines
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:45 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
It will be interesting when AA starts getting their A321XLR's. The current pilot contract calls for a hourly rate for 319/320/321 drivers that is about 5% less than 757 drivers. Perhaps they have amended their agreement to allow for XLR pilots to be paid 757 rates? But then will come an internal squabble over who on the seniority list gets first pick at 321XLR trips? Former 757 drivers who will need full transitional simulator certification, or 321 drivers who will need just minor differences training?


I looked at the data for AA TransAtlantic, and every single model of widebody was being used (plus B757 to Iceland and Shannon)
Boeing 757-200
Boeing 767-300ER
Boeing 777-200ER
Boeing 777-300ER
Airbus A330-300
Airbus A330-200
Boeing 787-8
Boeing 787-9

AA older widebodies
9 Airbus A330-300 19.5 average age in years
16 Boeing 767-300 19.7
47 Boeing 777-200 19.2

Let me clarify the original question again. The question is not will widebodies vanish. The assumption is that new widebodies currently on order (Dreamliners in the AA case) will replace old ones.

The question is will all future growth be pushed onto long range narrowbodies in an effort to improve fuel economy and minimize risk?
 
dstblj52
Posts: 459
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:23 am

PacoMartin wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
It will be interesting when AA starts getting their A321XLR's. The current pilot contract calls for a hourly rate for 319/320/321 drivers that is about 5% less than 757 drivers. Perhaps they have amended their agreement to allow for XLR pilots to be paid 757 rates? But then will come an internal squabble over who on the seniority list gets first pick at 321XLR trips? Former 757 drivers who will need full transitional simulator certification, or 321 drivers who will need just minor differences training?


I looked at the data for AA TransAtlantic, and every single model of widebody was being used (plus B757 to Iceland and Shannon)
Boeing 757-200
Boeing 767-300ER
Boeing 777-200ER
Boeing 777-300ER
Airbus A330-300
Airbus A330-200
Boeing 787-8
Boeing 787-9

AA older widebodies
9 Airbus A330-300 19.5 average age in years
16 Boeing 767-300 19.7
47 Boeing 777-200 19.2

Let me clarify the original question again. The question is not will widebodies vanish. The assumption is that new widebodies currently on order (Dreamliners in the AA case) will replace old ones.

The question is will all future growth be pushed onto long-range narrowbodies in an effort to improve fuel economy and minimize risk?

widebodies generally have lower casm then narrowbodies its just a question of managing yield one factor I don't think many people are considering is for a lot of longer routes there is a fairly limited set of times that are optimal and jamming two departures an hour from each other generally doesn't open a lot of oportunities unless people start doing say 10X weekly which might be viable except you still have the dead midweek days to work out
 
User avatar
FLALEFTY
Posts: 778
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:33 am

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:54 am

PacoMartin wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
It will be interesting when AA starts getting their A321XLR's. The current pilot contract calls for a hourly rate for 319/320/321 drivers that is about 5% less than 757 drivers. Perhaps they have amended their agreement to allow for XLR pilots to be paid 757 rates? But then will come an internal squabble over who on the seniority list gets first pick at 321XLR trips? Former 757 drivers who will need full transitional simulator certification, or 321 drivers who will need just minor differences training?


I looked at the data for AA TransAtlantic, and every single model of widebody was being used (plus B757 to Iceland and Shannon)
Boeing 757-200
Boeing 767-300ER
Boeing 777-200ER
Boeing 777-300ER
Airbus A330-300
Airbus A330-200
Boeing 787-8
Boeing 787-9

AA older widebodies
9 Airbus A330-300 19.5 average age in years
16 Boeing 767-300 19.7
47 Boeing 777-200 19.2

Let me clarify the original question again. The question is not will widebodies vanish. The assumption is that new widebodies currently on order (Dreamliners in the AA case) will replace old ones.

The question is will all future growth be pushed onto long range narrowbodies in an effort to improve fuel economy and minimize risk?


Here's a good rundown of where American plans to go with their fleet plans. Now that we are in 2020, expect AA to revise this further, but this was the plan as of a year ago.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... uary-2019/

In summary, the 24 Boeing 757's configured for International flights will still be in the fleet until at least YE 2021 (Not covered in this article, but the first A321XLR's aren't due until 2023). The Boeing 763's will be cut to 6 by the end of 2020 and out of the fleet by YE 2021. The 9 A333's are planned to remain in the fleet at least until YE 2021. No mention of any plans to start retiring the 772ER fleet in the next 2 years. The Boeing 788 fleet will increase by 12 in 2020 and 10 in 2021, bringing that fleet up to 42 up from 20 at YE 2019.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4985
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:40 am

PacoMartin wrote:
As 4-engine jets are phased out of the European fleets and maximum ranges of narrow bodies are have increased to up to 4700 nmi, it seems like the widebody fleets of the western world will diminish. On the other hand as traffic increases pressure on the busiest runways may mean that airports will change landing fees to encourage larger jets.

It seems to me that certainly American Airlines will probably reduce their wide-body fleet. They are the least profitable of the major airlines, and they have the fewest number of Trans Pacific flights. Increasingly the South American and European destinations will be reachable by A321 XLR. On the other hand AA has one of the youngest average age of their widebodies.

I am not sure about the other five airlines on this list. I have included the average age of each type to the right
70 KLM 10.7
13 Airbus A330 10.9
11 Boeing 747 21.7
29 Boeing 777 11.2
17 Boeing 787 Dreamliner 2.5

110 Air France 13.0
15 Airbus A330 17.3
4 Airbus A340 21.4
3 Airbus A350 XWB 0.3
9 Airbus A380 8.9
70 Boeing 777 14.4
9 Boeing 787 Dreamliner 2.0

110 Lufthansa 11.9
15 Airbus A330 12.0
34 Airbus A340 17.2
15 Airbus A350 XWB 2.0
14 Airbus A380 8.4
32 Boeing 747 12.3

136 British Airways 14.2
4 Airbus A350-1000 0.3
12 Airbus A380-800 5.8
32 Boeing 747-400 22.7
46 Boeing 777-200 20.2
12 Boeing 777-300 7.3
12 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner 4.6
18 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner 3.6

149 American 11.9
15 Airbus A330-200 8.2
9 Airbus A330-300 19.5
16 Boeing 767-300 19.7
47 Boeing 777-200 19.2
20 Boeing 777-300 6.0
20 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner 4.3
22 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner 2.3

154 Delta Airlines 16.5
11 Airbus A330-200 14.9
31 Airbus A330-300 11.1
4 Airbus A330-900 0.6
13 Airbus A350 XWB 2.0
56 Boeing 767-300 23.7
21 Boeing 767-400 19.1
18 Boeing 777-200 15.0

199 United Airlines 15.2
38 Boeing 767-200 24.1
16 Boeing 767-300 18.4
74 Boeing 777-200 20.7
21 Boeing 777-300 2.3
12 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner 1.0
26 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner 6.6
12 Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner 3.8


Uhited has no 767- 200's they fly the -300 and the -400 the -300's are split between the -322 and -324 and the -400's are all -424's

bo 777
























502
 
factsonly
Posts: 2962
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:08 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:42 am

PacoMartin wrote:

70 KLM 10.7
13 Airbus A330 10.9
11 Boeing 747 21.7
29 Boeing 777 11.2
17 Boeing 787 Dreamliner 2.5


You can add a 5th brand new B787-10 PH-BKG to KLM's fleet, freshly delivered from Charleston this morning Feb. 12.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:06 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
The Boeing 763's will be cut to 6 by the end of 2020 and out of the fleet by YE 2021. The 9 A333's are planned to remain in the fleet at least until YE 2021. The Boeing 788 fleet will increase by 12 in 2020 and 10 in 2021, bringing that fleet up to 42 up from 20 at YE 2019.


So basically 16 763s, and 9 A333s will be replaced by 22 788s.

FLALEFTY wrote:
No mention of any plans to start retiring the 772ER fleet in the next 2 years.


47 Boeing 777-200ER with 37+24+66+146=273 seats
25 Boeing 787-9 with 30+21+24+200=285 seats

Even though they don't have as many 787-9s on order, we assume they will retire one and replace one.

So it looks like for at least five years, the total count of AA widebodies will remain pretty steady.

Someone mentioned that CASM for widebodies is lower than long-range narrowbodies. According to Wikipedia fuel economy per available seat is similar, so presumably, the lower CASM comes from reduced pilot costs and landing fees.

Airbus A321NeoLR 2016 154 97 mpg‑US
Airbus A330neo-900 2016 310 97 mpg‑US
Boeing 787-8 2009 238 88 mpg‑US
Boeing 787-9 2013 304 99 mpg‑US

But I don't know if that lower CASM includes debt servicing, and a potential higher risk of empty seats and selling tickets at a lower than expected price to fill the larger jet.

Airbus says they have sold 450 XLRs so far and expect orders to exceed 1000 within the decade.
 
IADCA
Posts: 2180
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:10 pm

Widebodies will probably continue to diminish in relative terms to overall fleet size as narrowbodies continue to gain capability and some are fitted with premium cabin seat products that are actually acceptable to travelers on overnight routes. The new A321s can fly new, narrow routes that are too small for widebodies and that 757s couldn't economically fly, even though they had the literal capability of flying most of them.

That's not the same as saying widebodies will in any way diminish in absolute terms. Belly cargo and passenger capacity needs will continue to drive growth, and as more very long routes open up, keep in mind that those are routes that require more than one frame to operate daily. Some carriers may diminish, some may grow significantly.

PacoMartin wrote:


Someone mentioned that CASM for widebodies is lower than long-range narrowbodies. According to Wikipedia fuel economy per available seat is similar, so presumably, the lower CASM comes from reduced pilot costs and landing fees.

Airbus A321NeoLR 2016 154 97 mpg‑US
Airbus A330neo-900 2016 310 97 mpg‑US
Boeing 787-8 2009 238 88 mpg‑US
Boeing 787-9 2013 304 99 mpg‑US


It's not all about the cost side, and I'd also note that none of those appear to be standard configuration densities for medium-haul flight. But there are a lot more costs: gate leases, landing slots, parking fees, maintenance, cabin crew, ground crew and servicing. Some of these scale proportionally with airframe size. Some don't. And when you get to the real-world of figuring out which frame to purchase and use, the actual cost of the frame (owned or leased) is a huge cost component. If you can get a hugely discounted 787-8 versus a small discount on a 321LR (or vice versa), that meaningfully affects the decision if you have a particular route in mind that both could fly. It's of course never as simple as all this, but cost isn't a simple thing.
 
User avatar
FLALEFTY
Posts: 778
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:33 am

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:04 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
The Boeing 763's will be cut to 6 by the end of 2020 and out of the fleet by YE 2021. The 9 A333's are planned to remain in the fleet at least until YE 2021. The Boeing 788 fleet will increase by 12 in 2020 and 10 in 2021, bringing that fleet up to 42 up from 20 at YE 2019.


So basically 16 763s, and 9 A333s will be replaced by 22 788s.

FLALEFTY wrote:
No mention of any plans to start retiring the 772ER fleet in the next 2 years.


47 Boeing 777-200ER with 37+24+66+146=273 seats
25 Boeing 787-9 with 30+21+24+200=285 seats

Even though they don't have as many 787-9s on order, we assume they will retire one and replace one.

So it looks like for at least five years, the total count of AA widebodies will remain pretty steady.

Someone mentioned that CASM for widebodies is lower than long-range narrowbodies. According to Wikipedia fuel economy per available seat is similar, so presumably, the lower CASM comes from reduced pilot costs and landing fees.

Airbus A321NeoLR 2016 154 97 mpg‑US
Airbus A330neo-900 2016 310 97 mpg‑US
Boeing 787-8 2009 238 88 mpg‑US
Boeing 787-9 2013 304 99 mpg‑US

But I don't know if that lower CASM includes debt servicing, and a potential higher risk of empty seats and selling tickets at a lower than expected price to fill the larger jet.

Airbus says they have sold 450 XLRs so far and expect orders to exceed 1000 within the decade.


The 25 additional B789's are due to start arriving into AA's fleet in 2023, which seems to be a watershed year for their widebody renewal plans. By 2023 American will have the B763, and possibly the A333 fleets retired. They will also start winding down their B772 fleet starting 2023. What is interesting is the fairly-newish fleet of 15 A332's they inherited from US Airways. It seems like these non-premium-heavy A332's will stick around until at least the end of the decade.

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/American-Airlines
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:27 pm

IADCA wrote:
And when you get to the real-world of figuring out which frame to purchase and use, the actual cost of the frame (owned or leased) is a huge cost component. If you can get a hugely discounted 787-8 versus a small discount on a 321LR (or vice versa), that meaningfully affects the decision if you have a particular route in mind that both could fly. It's of course never as simple as all this, but cost isn't a simple thing.


The leasing thread suggest that you can get 2.5 to 3 A321 for the cost of an 787-8 obviously there is no real world leasing prices yet for a not currently in use aircraft but it doesn't look like parity is realistic.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:55 pm

IADCA wrote:
And when you get to the real-world of figuring out which frame to purchase and use, the actual cost of the frame (owned or leased) is a huge cost component. If you can get a hugely discounted 787-8 versus a small discount on a 321LR (or vice versa), that meaningfully affects the decision if you have a particular route in mind that both could fly. It's of course never as simple as all this, but cost isn't a simple thing.


TUI Airways fleet is 16 widebodies to 40 narrowbodies. Norwegian Long Haul has 21 Dreamliners with only 32 premium seats. Air Europa has 25 widebodies to 20 narrowbodies.

It seems highly unlikely that a US airlines other than the US-3 or Hawaiian, is going to invest in a widebody. So it looks like narrow-bodies are lower CASM. But apparently not in Europe.
 
IADCA
Posts: 2180
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:33 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
IADCA wrote:
And when you get to the real-world of figuring out which frame to purchase and use, the actual cost of the frame (owned or leased) is a huge cost component. If you can get a hugely discounted 787-8 versus a small discount on a 321LR (or vice versa), that meaningfully affects the decision if you have a particular route in mind that both could fly. It's of course never as simple as all this, but cost isn't a simple thing.


The leasing thread suggest that you can get 2.5 to 3 A321 for the cost of an 787-8 obviously there is no real world leasing prices yet for a not currently in use aircraft but it doesn't look like parity is realistic.


It would be pretty stark if there were actual parity on a frame-by-frame basis given that the 787 is a much larger and more capable airplane. And the fact that one isn't in the wild yet is exactly why I discussed it as a hypothetical. It's just a list of costs and what those could mean, not a statement or even implication of what the relationship of the capital costs of those two frames is.

PacoMartin wrote:
IADCA wrote:
And when you get to the real-world of figuring out which frame to purchase and use, the actual cost of the frame (owned or leased) is a huge cost component. If you can get a hugely discounted 787-8 versus a small discount on a 321LR (or vice versa), that meaningfully affects the decision if you have a particular route in mind that both could fly. It's of course never as simple as all this, but cost isn't a simple thing.


TUI Airways fleet is 16 widebodies to 40 narrowbodies. Norwegian Long Haul has 21 Dreamliners with only 32 premium seats. Air Europa has 25 widebodies to 20 narrowbodies.

It seems highly unlikely that a US airlines other than the US-3 or Hawaiian, is going to invest in a widebody. So it looks like narrow-bodies are lower CASM. But apparently not in Europe.


I don't see how you get to that conclusion on cost from that evidence. For one, it ignores the fact that "cost" isn't on a pure frame-by-frame basis in isolation: if B6, for example, were to buy 10 A330s, suddenly it would need a whole new spares network, pilots, MX contracts, etc. If they add A321XLR, not so much. That calculus changes greatly if a carrier like DL were to buy 10 A330s - the marginal change in the company's cost structure is much smaller. You're also looking at a weird snapshot in time: after all, while not US, WestJet fairly recently added widebodies. Other than that, I'm not sure who you'd expect to add them as none of the others have shown any significant appetite for routes beyond the range of even current-generation narrowbodies.

Also, comparing long haul leisure carriers like NLH and sunshine charter carriers to network carriers is a little silly even if you're overly focused on the cost side of the revenue/costs analysis, as you seem to be. When you operate a 787-9 with 345 seats (as TUI does), there's no way a narrowbody is touching it on a CASM basis on a transatlantic flight. You'd need two flights to even get that many people moved, with all the costs that entails.
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:03 pm

IADCA wrote:
You're also looking at a weird snapshot in time: after all, while not US, WestJet fairly recently added widebodies.


Excellent response!

Good point about Westjet. WestJet was based on the low-cost carrier business model pioneered by Southwest Airlines and Morris Air in the United States. Even today it is smaller than Southwest, JetBlue or Alaska. Yet they are taking the plunge into purchasing 10 Dreamliners (4 delivered so far) with a fairly egalitarian configuration of 16 business, 28 premium and 276 economy seats. They have destinations in London, Paris, Dublin, Rome, Barcelona, and Glasgow.

IADCA wrote:
Other than that, I'm not sure who you'd expect to add them as none of the others have shown any significant appetite for routes beyond the range of even current-generation narrowbodies.


I always assumed
it was the cost of acquiring and operating widebodies that kept US carriers other than the Big-3 from operating too far from US. As of summer 2019, these are the four longest routes flown by other than UA, AA, DL, and HA

2626 miles FLL-LIM (Lima, Peru) JetBlue Airways & Spirit Air Lines
2310 miles MSP-PUJ (Punta Cana) Sun Country Airlines d/b/a MN Airlines
2276 miles BOS-MEX (Mexico City) JetBlue Airways
2230 miles BWI-SJD (San Jose Del Cabo, Mexico) Southwest Airlines Co.

The A321XLR may make these routes possible to JetBlue Airways & Spirit Air Lines
FLL-BRA 3,531 mi
FLL-SCL 4,135 mi
FLL-EZE 4,421 mi

But if WestJet can do it, then I would think JetBlue could as well.
 
Sokes
Posts: 1644
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:14 am

PacoMartin wrote:
As of summer 2019, these are the four longest routes flown by other than UA, AA, DL, and HA

2626 miles FLL-LIM (Lima, Peru) JetBlue Airways & Spirit Air Lines
2310 miles MSP-PUJ (Punta Cana) Sun Country Airlines d/b/a MN Airlines
2276 miles BOS-MEX (Mexico City) JetBlue Airways
2230 miles BWI-SJD (San Jose Del Cabo, Mexico) Southwest Airlines Co.

The A321XLR may make these routes possible to JetBlue Airways & Spirit Air Lines
FLL-BRA 3,531 mi
FLL-SCL 4,135 mi
FLL-EZE 4,421 mi

But if WestJet can do it, then I would think JetBlue could as well.


I got confused why you would mention a flight with 4400 mi. FLL to EZE are 3850 nm.
Is it realistic? Looks quite far to me.
https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Buenos+ ... 224386!3e4
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Sancho99504
Posts: 707
Joined: Sun Dec 11, 2005 2:44 pm

Re: Widebody Fleet of Western World

Fri Feb 21, 2020 3:15 am

The argument of using CASM to defend using X aircraft for Y route is heavily subjective. Yes, a 281 seat aircraft has the ability to have a lower CASM vs a 176 seat jet on a 3,809 mile route. But does the 281 seater really have a lower CASM if you're having to offer loss making fares to fill the additional seats? To have a better CASM, you have to fill the seats, but at what costs?

CASM is the most useless metric in aviation behimd PRASM.
kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos