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MIflyer12
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:59 am

Boeing74741R wrote:
[
The MAN-ATL and MAN-JFK flights are moving to late-afternoon departures for W20. It was strange when this was first picked up on earlier this week as it leaves very limited connection opportunities at the JFK and ATL ends due to their arrival times...


You might have a look at the DL departures from ATL scheduled for 2200 or later. It's about 70 flights, many of which are in the Southeast or Midwest for which ATL is a logical connection. The JFK departure count from 2100 is rather leaner with about ten flights to the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and YYZ/YUL.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:18 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
[
The MAN-ATL and MAN-JFK flights are moving to late-afternoon departures for W20. It was strange when this was first picked up on earlier this week as it leaves very limited connection opportunities at the JFK and ATL ends due to their arrival times...


You might have a look at the DL departures from ATL scheduled for 2200 or later. It's about 70 flights, many of which are in the Southeast or Midwest for which ATL is a logical connection. The JFK departure count from 2100 is rather leaner with about ten flights to the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and YYZ/YUL.


So what happens if the flight into ATL or JFK is late for whatever reason and the connections are missed? At least under the current schedule it may be possible to get a later flight the same day.

Also bear in mind by 10pm Atlanta time it's about 3am UK time, so some people would be up for almost 24 hours.

It's those who've already booked and now having to change plans I feel sorry for.
 
onwFan
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:50 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
“According to preliminary figures from Sabre Market Intelligence, Mumbai was the largest O&D market between Manchester and India in 2019 with 86,300 two-way passengers. Delhi was second with 57,300 passengers.”

DEL - 57,300 per year = 78.5 PPDEW

BOM - 86,300 per year = 118.2 PPDEW

You can probably add circa 20% for direct route stimulation, and then whatever traffic connects at MAN for TATL services. Provided the yield isn’t trash, the fundamentals should be there for a daily service to both BOM and DEL in due course.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... nchester-/

Interesting. Given these stats, I am indeed surprised that they went for DEL instead of BOM. Since they are already going to serve DEL twice daily, wouldn’t it have made sense to add capacity to BOM? Especially given that 9W used to have MAN-BOM and 2x daily LHR-BOM. Probably DL’s existing JFK-BOM was a factor here?
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:33 pm

onwFan wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
“According to preliminary figures from Sabre Market Intelligence, Mumbai was the largest O&D market between Manchester and India in 2019 with 86,300 two-way passengers. Delhi was second with 57,300 passengers.”

DEL - 57,300 per year = 78.5 PPDEW

BOM - 86,300 per year = 118.2 PPDEW

You can probably add circa 20% for direct route stimulation, and then whatever traffic connects at MAN for TATL services. Provided the yield isn’t trash, the fundamentals should be there for a daily service to both BOM and DEL in due course.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... nchester-/

Interesting. Given these stats, I am indeed surprised that they went for DEL instead of BOM. Since they are already going to serve DEL twice daily, wouldn’t it have made sense to add capacity to BOM? Especially given that 9W used to have MAN-BOM and 2x daily LHR-BOM. Probably DL’s existing JFK-BOM was a factor here?


I don’t have a definitive answer, but I think DEL has been chosen for two reasons:

1 - DEL is historically the safer route for VS than BOM, and they probably have a better infrastructure there to support the MAN flight.

2 - I think the BOM numbers may not be comparing apples with apples with DEL, as this would have included a period where 9W would have operated BOM-MAN and I suspect this would have stimulated the market.
 
DTWLAX
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:01 am

onwFan wrote:
Interesting. Given these stats, I am indeed surprised that they went for DEL instead of BOM. Since they are already going to serve DEL twice daily, wouldn’t it have made sense to add capacity to BOM? Especially given that 9W used to have MAN-BOM and 2x daily LHR-BOM. Probably DL’s existing JFK-BOM was a factor here?

BOM-LHR was 3x daily on 9W. That may indicate 9W was getting a lot of connecting passengers at BOM. VS only flies 1x daily LHR-BOM now. If they cannot make a second daily LHR-BOM work, I doubt VS will start MAN-BOM anytime soon.
 
MAH4546
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:13 am

TC957 wrote:
With LHR's 3rd runway never happening now, VS has limited chances to expand there unless forking out for extra expensive slots. So expanding slowly at MAN and building up their customer base there is a clever move. Get well established in case BA gets big ideas of starting ex-MAN services. I predict a MAN - MIA service next followed by a seasonal MAN - JNB. Maybe once the A339's start arriving.


Surprised still no MAN-MIA. Especially with Virgin Cruises starting up soon.
a.
 
Thunderbolt500
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 3:22 am

Will it matter after the problem with the cornavirus it seems to getting out of control, it reminds you of a bad snowstorm
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:46 am

DTWLAX wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Interesting. Given these stats, I am indeed surprised that they went for DEL instead of BOM. Since they are already going to serve DEL twice daily, wouldn’t it have made sense to add capacity to BOM? Especially given that 9W used to have MAN-BOM and 2x daily LHR-BOM. Probably DL’s existing JFK-BOM was a factor here?

BOM-LHR was 3x daily on 9W. That may indicate 9W was getting a lot of connecting passengers at BOM. VS only flies 1x daily LHR-BOM now. If they cannot make a second daily LHR-BOM work, I doubt VS will start MAN-BOM anytime soon.


I’m not sure that argument works - you can use the same principle (VS flies two daily MAN-MCO but not LHR-MCO) and conclude that VS do not operate MCO-LHR because they cannot make it work.

To be clear, I don’t think that’s what you are saying, but the point is that there are wider factors to take into account than looking at what they operate now at LHR and making an extrapolation comparison at MAN.

Of course, VS are not Jet and it is not comparing apples with apples, but their BOM-MAN service was on the face of it doing well and I anticipate that when VS have more fleet capacity we will see them operate MAN-DEL/BOM at a 5+ weekly frequency.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:47 am

MAH4546 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
With LHR's 3rd runway never happening now, VS has limited chances to expand there unless forking out for extra expensive slots. So expanding slowly at MAN and building up their customer base there is a clever move. Get well established in case BA gets big ideas of starting ex-MAN services. I predict a MAN - MIA service next followed by a seasonal MAN - JNB. Maybe once the A339's start arriving.


Surprised still no MAN-MIA. Especially with Virgin Cruises starting up soon.


I think TC957 is correct, when the A339s start arriving we’ll probably see expansion at MAN. The VS fleet has been constrained for some time, and it is only, just, starting to get back to where they hoped it would be.
 
3AWM
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:33 am

Why choose DEL over BOM? Jet had it's main hub in BOM where as new transfer partner Vistara have a hub at DEL.

It's also closer which means less fuel and backtracking via connections.

I don't think they are just looking for O&D I think they are looking at servicing whole of India demand from the MAN catchment which includes places like Leeds, Preston and Bradford.

https://www.airvistara.com/trip/interli ... n-atlantic
 
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Miami
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:23 pm

MAN-MIA is a route that I believe will happen in 2021. VS and MIA have discussed it before in the past and with Virgin Voyages launching later this year in Miami, it’ll just be a matter of when. Assuming it’ll be a A339.
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
jetwet1
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:49 pm

MAH4546 wrote:

Surprised still no MAN-MIA. Especially with Virgin Cruises starting up soon.


Has there been any announcement on a partnership between VS and Virgin Cruises ?
 
David_itl
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:50 pm

Those of us with long memories recollect a 1986 travel exhibition wherr they said rhat 1987 would see Manchester-Miami services. A runoured route older than the "Thai to MAN' one !
 
DTWLAX
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:19 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:

I’m not sure that argument works - you can use the same principle (VS flies two daily MAN-MCO but not LHR-MCO) and conclude that VS do not operate MCO-LHR because they cannot make it work.

To be clear, I don’t think that’s what you are saying, but the point is that there are wider factors to take into account than looking at what they operate now at LHR and making an extrapolation comparison at MAN.

Of course, VS are not Jet and it is not comparing apples with apples, but their BOM-MAN service was on the face of it doing well and I anticipate that when VS have more fleet capacity we will see them operate MAN-DEL/BOM at a 5+ weekly frequency.

I was comparing 9W's frequency with VS frequency on BOM-LHR and used that to compare BOM-MAN for 9W and VS.
You cannot compare LHR-BOM with MAN-MCO. They are two very different markets. LHR and BOM are two financial centers. 9W's BOM-LHR and BOM-MAN flights could offer a lot of connections to/from other cities in India.
VS's MAN-MCO serves a specific tourist demand. There are very few connection opportunities at either end.
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:58 pm

onwFan wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
“According to preliminary figures from Sabre Market Intelligence, Mumbai was the largest O&D market between Manchester and India in 2019 with 86,300 two-way passengers. Delhi was second with 57,300 passengers.”

DEL - 57,300 per year = 78.5 PPDEW

BOM - 86,300 per year = 118.2 PPDEW

You can probably add circa 20% for direct route stimulation, and then whatever traffic connects at MAN for TATL services. Provided the yield isn’t trash, the fundamentals should be there for a daily service to both BOM and DEL in due course.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... nchester-/

Interesting. Given these stats, I am indeed surprised that they went for DEL instead of BOM. Since they are already going to serve DEL twice daily, wouldn’t it have made sense to add capacity to BOM? Especially given that 9W used to have MAN-BOM and 2x daily LHR-BOM. Probably DL’s existing JFK-BOM was a factor here?


I think it was due to the DL’s JFK-BOM flight. IMHO the reason VS is starting these flights (other than strong O&D) is to help feed transatlantic flights especially in the winter (which is peak to india). THe MAN origin VFR is very BOM based. Students probably more DEL based. But the main connections today for the MAN-India flight are JFK and ATL which would affect JFK-BOM. My guess is VS started 3X to DEL (they always wanted both BOM and DEL from MAN with 9W). They will launch MAN-BOM 4X in a year once JFK-BOM is built up.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:34 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Capetown, Tokyo, Vancouver, Toronto or Chicago are the obvious ones that spring to mind.

Could just be more routes from MAN though.


Chicago has been tried several times, it's controlled by AA & UA with huge frequencies in the market. Not going to happen.

Toronto might work if Virgin could make a deal with Westjet.

Tokyo would be a great market if Haneda was the airport and an A350 flew the route.

Capetown is too seasonal, a great destination for many bu not Virgin.

ORD controlled by UA and AA ? In what way? I've flown into and out of ORD on many, many occasions and so If they can't make money there? I suspect they're not trying to make money there because Delta is not the prominent incumbent carrier there. what makes them any less capable than British? OR? any other EU Carrier?
 
jetwet1
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:49 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Capetown, Tokyo, Vancouver, Toronto or Chicago are the obvious ones that spring to mind.

Could just be more routes from MAN though.


Chicago has been tried several times, it's controlled by AA & UA with huge frequencies in the market. Not going to happen.

Toronto might work if Virgin could make a deal with Westjet.

Tokyo would be a great market if Haneda was the airport and an A350 flew the route.

Capetown is too seasonal, a great destination for many bu not Virgin.

ORD controlled by UA and AA ? In what way? I've flown into and out of ORD on many, many occasions and so If they can't make money there? I suspect they're not trying to make money there because Delta is not the prominent incumbent carrier there. what makes them any less capable than British? OR? any other EU Carrier?


VS tried ORD a couple of times before DL was in the picture, the simple fact was even using the smallest plane in their fleet at the time (343) they couldn't generate loads that were meaningful. On the UK side BA has the corp contracts locked up, on the US side AA/UA have them. While ORD is a big market, it's not NYC and VS were the odd ones out.

Other EU carriers have AA/UA to go up against, but not BA, try as a small independent airline starting say FRA-ORD and watch LH's reaction. The only one I remember having any sort of success (of the top of my head so please feel free to correct me) was PIA on the ORD-BCN route and even then it had to be a huge money loser for them, from memory I was paying $1200 rt in J.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:19 pm

DTWLAX wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:

I’m not sure that argument works - you can use the same principle (VS flies two daily MAN-MCO but not LHR-MCO) and conclude that VS do not operate MCO-LHR because they cannot make it work.

To be clear, I don’t think that’s what you are saying, but the point is that there are wider factors to take into account than looking at what they operate now at LHR and making an extrapolation comparison at MAN.

Of course, VS are not Jet and it is not comparing apples with apples, but their BOM-MAN service was on the face of it doing well and I anticipate that when VS have more fleet capacity we will see them operate MAN-DEL/BOM at a 5+ weekly frequency.

I was comparing 9W's frequency with VS frequency on BOM-LHR and used that to compare BOM-MAN for 9W and VS.
You cannot compare LHR-BOM with MAN-MCO. They are two very different markets. LHR and BOM are two financial centers. 9W's BOM-LHR and BOM-MAN flights could offer a lot of connections to/from other cities in India.
VS's MAN-MCO serves a specific tourist demand. There are very few connection opportunities at either end.


Exactly - there are other variables.

It is not possible to compare MAN-MCO and LHR-BOM, or 9W MAN-BOM and VS MAN-BOM (or, to circle back to your initial example, comparing 9W LHR-BOM and VS LHR-BOM and making extrapolations from that) - because there are other variables.
 
seansasLCY
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:23 pm

Virgin have now announced that the Sao Paolo route will be delayed till October.

https://twitter.com/silvesterldn/status ... 85732?s=20
 
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NearMiss
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:37 pm

I was wondering if Virgin had any plans on coming to SCL after LATAM's deal with Delta.
"There is an art, it says, or rather, a knack to flying. The knack lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss."
 
onwFan
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:55 pm

seansasLCY wrote:
Virgin have now announced that the Sao Paolo route will be delayed till October.

https://twitter.com/silvesterldn/status ... 85732?s=20

Another important issue could have been indecision on GOL vs LATAM as codeshare partner. IAG will mostly give up LATAM partnership if their purchase of UX go through, so might make better sense to start codeshare with them than GOL.
 
FSDan
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:00 pm

seansasLCY wrote:
Virgin have now announced that the Sao Paolo route will be delayed till October.

https://twitter.com/silvesterldn/status ... 85732?s=20


To be honest, October seems like a better time to launch a Southern Hemisphere route regardless of coronavirus...
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
Caluma350
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Virgin Atlantic's Expansion Options

Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:39 am

Last year VS CEO Shei Weiss outlined his expansion plans for VS to become the second flag carrier for the UK and to serve a vast amount of new routs and the addition of the regional airline Virgin Connect through the acquisition of Flybe. This would all greatly expand VS into new markets as well as old markets served but most importantly give BA a run for their money. Now the BA / IAG group currently have a monopoly over LHR slots and therefore would not want expansion at the airport as this would lead to greater competition from VS and other carriers as well.

https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/v ... 51.article

Over the last couple of weeks the ambitious expansion plan for VS has hit a little turbulence (pun intended). We saw the third runway expansion at LHR ruled illegal over climate change fears by UK courts. Now there is speculation that the UK government will not appeal this decision as the "government is considering its next steps but will not appeal against the verdict". This may lead to further long haul expansion into STN or LGW as I believe the third runway being built or not will have little impact on demand for aviation travel.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ate-change

Further to this the Virgin Connect project is now very likely dead with the demise of Flybe. Virgin Connect which is what the new airline would have been called would have utilized as a feeder / short haul option for Virgins expansion outlined in the flightglobal article above. Now there is speculation that this acquisition was motivated by VS wanting to have a far greater “buying power" with any new slots with LHR third runway, or have the ability to utilize Flybes LHR slots. In any case it is now unlikely to happen as Virgin and the consortium know as Connect airways didn't want to put more money into Flybe as their financial results worsened.

https://www.ft.com/content/769cf63c-5ef ... 40a0d65a98

Coronavirus which was probably the final nail in the coffin of Flybe has had an effect on the global aviation market as bookings and revenues are down for all airlines. Now hopefully after 3 to 6 months this issue will be resolved and normality in global markets will resume. But in the meantime it is unlikely any airline will be expanding as people are currently swapping handshakes for elbow taps as well as plane tickets for face masks!!

Now I have to honest VS is an airline very close to my heart so perhaps I am biased, but I do believe the UK market can support / needs two flag carriers just like in Japan with JL and NH, as this increase in competition would actually be good for the UK market, giving customers a greater choice in an ever expanding industry. I do believe that VS has always given customers greater value for money compared to BA with quality of service as ultimately VS was born from beardy Branson's protest to the poor quality of airlines in the mid-80s and this philosophy has kept VS competitive throughout the years.

I'm keen to hear anyone's thought on this topic, as well as what you may think VS may do going forward.
 
User001
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Re: Virgin Atlantic's Expansion Options

Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:50 am

Well the plan was to make MAN a hub for VS, and indeed a few flights this winter have been retimed for this hub operation.

That of course is now dead in the water, but interestingly, VS has publicly stated that they will keep the Virgin Connect name, as they are evaluating their next move.

Of course, its rough time for airlines but Corona virus is an overhyped media circus that won't last long.

I'm terms of expansion, there aren't a lot of London options open, hence VS building MAN.
LHR won't get its 3rd runway
LGW filling up and just as likely to be refused an extra runway
STN recently had a refusal to allow its capacity to increase from 34 to 45 million, so, they will soon start running out of good slots
LTN full to the brim to the point carriers are being pushed out.
SEN, well, it may have a small role now but short runway, poor transport and distance mean its not a realistic London airport.

Hence MAN (was) doing well, BHX may benefit from HS2 and EDI/GLA could do well service their respective markets.

But for VS, it seems a lot of hope was pinned on Connect/MAN with aspirations of LHR. Even with BE gone, the fact London is still full means Plan B for growing MAN will need to be considered.
 
gkirk
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Re: Virgin Atlantic's Expansion Options

Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:59 am

User001 wrote:
Well the plan was to make MAN a hub for VS, and indeed a few flights this winter have been retimed for this hub operation.

That of course is now dead in the water, but interestingly, VS has publicly stated that they will keep the Virgin Connect name, as they are evaluating their next move.

Of course, its rough time for airlines but Corona virus is an overhyped media circus that won't last long.

I'm terms of expansion, there aren't a lot of London options open, hence VS building MAN.
LHR won't get its 3rd runway
LGW filling up and just as likely to be refused an extra runway
STN recently had a refusal to allow its capacity to increase from 34 to 45 million, so, they will soon start running out of good slots
LTN full to the brim to the point carriers are being pushed out.
SEN, well, it may have a small role now but short runway, poor transport and distance mean its not a realistic London airport.

Hence MAN (was) doing well, BHX may benefit from HS2 and EDI/GLA could do well service their respective markets.

But for VS, it seems a lot of hope was pinned on Connect/MAN with aspirations of LHR. Even with BE gone, the fact London is still full means Plan B for growing MAN will need to be considered.


To expand MAN ops, pehaps they should look at going into a partnership of kind with Transpennine Express? Feed the long haul flights using trains rather than FlyBe
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
Caluma350
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Re: Virgin Atlantic's Expansion Options

Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:04 pm

gkirk wrote:
To expand MAN ops, pehaps they should look at going into a partnership of kind with Transpennine Express? Feed the long haul flights using trains rather than FlyBe


Perhaps a good option as the concern in the Flybe fleet was that their aircraft did not have the luggage capacity for connecting long haul flights.
 
User001
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Re: Virgin Atlantic's Expansion Options

Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:07 pm

gkirk wrote:
User001 wrote:
Well the plan was to make MAN a hub for VS, and indeed a few flights this winter have been retimed for this hub operation.

That of course is now dead in the water, but interestingly, VS has publicly stated that they will keep the Virgin Connect name, as they are evaluating their next move.

Of course, its rough time for airlines but Corona virus is an overhyped media circus that won't last long.

I'm terms of expansion, there aren't a lot of London options open, hence VS building MAN.
LHR won't get its 3rd runway
LGW filling up and just as likely to be refused an extra runway
STN recently had a refusal to allow its capacity to increase from 34 to 45 million, so, they will soon start running out of good slots
LTN full to the brim to the point carriers are being pushed out.
SEN, well, it may have a small role now but short runway, poor transport and distance mean its not a realistic London airport.

Hence MAN (was) doing well, BHX may benefit from HS2 and EDI/GLA could do well service their respective markets.

But for VS, it seems a lot of hope was pinned on Connect/MAN with aspirations of LHR. Even with BE gone, the fact London is still full means Plan B for growing MAN will need to be considered.


To expand MAN ops, pehaps they should look at going into a partnership of kind with Transpennine Express? Feed the long haul flights using trains rather than FlyBe


In terms of the green movement, its probably not a bad idea to be fair. As long as luggage space on the trains and OTP for the rail improves, it could have merit.
 
3AWM
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Re: Virgin Atlantic's Expansion Options

Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:15 pm

For me the most obvious choice is pick up a handful of the glut of Dash8s that will appear on the market at good lease terms, apply for the slots at ABZ and EDI themselves, operate them for 3 years, transfer to other euro routes and re-apply. No need to take on the Flybe's additional baggage.
 
Arion640
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Re: Virgin Atlantic's Expansion Options

Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:40 pm

3AWM wrote:
For me the most obvious choice is pick up a handful of the glut of Dash8s that will appear on the market at good lease terms, apply for the slots at ABZ and EDI themselves, operate them for 3 years, transfer to other euro routes and re-apply. No need to take on the Flybe's additional baggage.


:checkmark:

The debts and pension deficit have died with the old company.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:31 pm

The reality for VS is that any expansion in London is going to be incremental. They may be able to buy up the odd slot pair here and there and resume the likes of Tokyo, Beijing, Bangkok, Toronto, Vancouver - but this is not guaranteed and will take considerable time.

Their plan, I think, was to get Virgin Connect up and running at MAN before moving it lock stock to an expanded LHR. That plan now appears to be in tatters.

I do not know whether this objective remains in situ, but it is possible that a regional network centred on a hub at MAN covering - for example - Inverness, Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Belfast, Dublin, Cork, Isle of Man, Newcastle, Cardiff, Bristol, Norwich, Southend, Southampton, Exeter, Newquay and the Channel Islands might be attractive for VS.

The upside is that they can cherry pick those bits of the FlyBe business that might form a viable business without the onerous legacy issues that business faced, but of course this will be building an airline from a clean sheet of paper.

Time will tell - I don’t expect anyone or anything to move quickly in the present trading conditions.
 
NZ321
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Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: Virgin Atlantic's Expansion Options

Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:41 pm

Caluma350 wrote:
gkirk wrote:
To expand MAN ops, pehaps they should look at going into a partnership of kind with Transpennine Express? Feed the long haul flights using trains rather than FlyBe


Perhaps a good option as the concern in the Flybe fleet was that their aircraft did not have the luggage capacity for connecting long haul flights.


This is just a weird allogation. It is flawed in lots of respects. Hunreds of airlines around the world take luggage off connecting commuter flights of the type Flybe operated. It is not a sensible answer. We need to look for other answers.
Plane mad!
 
NZ321
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:43 pm

Why doesn't Virgin build a terminal at STN and target the north London market? Given slot constraints at LHR and LGW, there are after all, other opportunities.
Plane mad!
 
User001
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:47 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Why doesn't Virgin build a terminal at STN and target the north London market? Given slot constraints at LHR and LGW, there are after all, other opportunities.


As already mentioned STN has a capacity limit.

This sits at 35 million, and STN is already at 29m. Yes, that's 6m more pax that can be added, but, it does mean prime slots will be harder to source, and given this cap was refused to be expanded up to 45m, the chances of STN being granted permission for a new terminal is slim.

As also mentioned above, London is pretty much full. This means that while incremental growth can be achieved at LON, any substantial growth will now have to be in the UK regions.
 
3AWM
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:50 pm

The only benefit I can see of buying Flybe as a going concern was to get access to "shovel ready" slots for route expansion at LHR. Everything else, including hubbing at MAN could be achieved a lot easier and cheaper by taking bits of Flybe through the administration process. Even if the slots were grandfathered I still think Flybe would have to have been put into administration at some point to shed it's onerous liabilities.

I can totally see that with the CV panic Virgin might want to hold back on expansion right now but it also wouldn't surprise me if they ended up with those slots either.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:07 am

3AWM wrote:
The only benefit I can see of buying Flybe as a going concern was to get access to "shovel ready" slots for route expansion at LHR. Everything else, including hubbing at MAN could be achieved a lot easier and cheaper by taking bits of Flybe through the administration process. Even if the slots were grandfathered I still think Flybe would have to have been put into administration at some point to shed it's onerous liabilities.

I can totally see that with the CV panic Virgin might want to hold back on expansion right now but it also wouldn't surprise me if they ended up with those slots either.


I agree there is a debate to be had (which VS are likely either having now or will be having shortly) about their involvement in FlyBe.

You could certainly say that this was squarely aimed at LHR slots, but if you compare the price paid for the ANZ slot pair with the FlyBe cash burn I suspect there is little in it. I think VS will continue to explore purchasing slots on an incremental basis (I don’t know if they purchased these) to grow at LHR but they are running short of options.

Of course, there were other purported benefits of the acquisition - I guess we’ll now see if they have the appetite to take bits of FlyBe out of admin and assemble a regional airline from a clean sheet of paper.

(I agree that FlyBe would almost certainly have had to go through admin emerge as viable on the other side - the timing of this just before the budget is interesting and I wonder if it is a grand politicking move in respect of APD...).
 
SueD
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Re: Virgin Atlantic's Expansion Options

Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:36 am

User001 wrote:
Well the plan was to make MAN a hub for VS, and indeed a few flights this winter have been retimed for this hub operation.

That of course is now dead in the water, but interestingly, VS has publicly stated that they will keep the Virgin Connect name, as they are evaluating their next move.

Of course, its rough time for airlines but Corona virus is an overhyped media circus that won't last long.

I'm terms of expansion, there aren't a lot of London options open, hence VS building MAN.
LHR won't get its 3rd runway
LGW filling up and just as likely to be refused an extra runway
STN recently had a refusal to allow its capacity to increase from 34 to 45 million, so, they will soon start running out of good slots
LTN full to the brim to the point carriers are being pushed out.
SEN, well, it may have a small role now but short runway, poor transport and distance mean its not a realistic London airport.

Hence MAN (was) doing well, BHX may benefit from HS2 and EDI/GLA could do well service their respective markets.

But for VS, it seems a lot of hope was pinned on Connect/MAN with aspirations of LHR. Even with BE gone, the fact London is still full means Plan B for growing MAN will need to be considered.

Personally I am now waiting for Nordic to collect their I’ll gotten gains those mortgages will transfer quickly and I expect some frames to move across the office corridors toward the Stobart arena In the next few weeks and for Stobart to be the prime beneficiaries.

IMHO it certain Stobart will move in on the Belfast City market and one of either Manchester or Birmingham and attempt to pick up those remedial slots to form a reworked Virgin Connect entity pretty soon.

Pre- pack is all over this and 15 dashes is a solid number for those two potential bases imho.

COVID-19 the super strength common cold aside a think this was the plan anyway post April and it’s just come a few weeks earlier than planned .

Conjecture I know however somethings are certainly happening with the Receivers and interested parties.

FLYBE Shareholders were screwed over months ago anyway.
 
spud757
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:19 am

@SueD those were similar thoughts to mine. Stobart has some spare metal capacity that flew for BE. Those frames plus available DH8 from the administration of BE could transform in V.C., shedding the liabilities of BE. Perhaps the Connect Airways venture isn’t dead, it’s just evolved?
 
3AWM
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:51 am

DobboDobbo wrote:
You could certainly say that this was squarely aimed at LHR slots, but if you compare the price paid for the ANZ slot pair with the FlyBe cash burn I suspect there is little in it. I think VS will continue to explore purchasing slots on an incremental basis (I don’t know if they purchased these) to grow at LHR but they are running short of options..


The NZ slot went for $27m, I think Flybe have 8 or 9 slots, plus once grandfathering rights accrue there are a further 5 that could be applied for. Admittedly these are less flexible as they can't be used for longhaul but if buying slots incrementally is the alternative this is likely representative of the price per slot, peak time slots go for more. If you're looking to build a set of European connections buying slots incrementally would not only be expensive it would take a very long time as slots become available infrequently.

Flybe definitely burned through cash but I suspect the investors had an idea how much cash they were prepared to burn through to get the over the line. There is also a question of whether security was obtained for this investment, I imagine any funds put in were securitised against whatever remaining assets were held.
 
Armodeen
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:26 pm

Problem is, the solid routes are/will be gobbled up by Loganair/Eastern before VS have even come close to a decision, let alone pressed ahead with it.

They have the ability to expand to fill gaps and they are doing just that.

DobboDobbo wrote:
The reality for VS is that any expansion in London is going to be incremental. They may be able to buy up the odd slot pair here and there and resume the likes of Tokyo, Beijing, Bangkok, Toronto, Vancouver - but this is not guaranteed and will take considerable time.

Their plan, I think, was to get Virgin Connect up and running at MAN before moving it lock stock to an expanded LHR. That plan now appears to be in tatters.

I do not know whether this objective remains in situ, but it is possible that a regional network centred on a hub at MAN covering - for example - Inverness, Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Belfast, Dublin, Cork, Isle of Man, Newcastle, Cardiff, Bristol, Norwich, Southend, Southampton, Exeter, Newquay and the Channel Islands might be attractive for VS.

The upside is that they can cherry pick those bits of the FlyBe business that might form a viable business without the onerous legacy issues that business faced, but of course this will be building an airline from a clean sheet of paper.

Time will tell - I don’t expect anyone or anything to move quickly in the present trading conditions.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:52 am

3AWM wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
You could certainly say that this was squarely aimed at LHR slots, but if you compare the price paid for the ANZ slot pair with the FlyBe cash burn I suspect there is little in it. I think VS will continue to explore purchasing slots on an incremental basis (I don’t know if they purchased these) to grow at LHR but they are running short of options..


The NZ slot went for $27m, I think Flybe have 8 or 9 slots, plus once grandfathering rights accrue there are a further 5 that could be applied for. Admittedly these are less flexible as they can't be used for longhaul but if buying slots incrementally is the alternative this is likely representative of the price per slot, peak time slots go for more. If you're looking to build a set of European connections buying slots incrementally would not only be expensive it would take a very long time as slots become available infrequently.

Flybe definitely burned through cash but I suspect the investors had an idea how much cash they were prepared to burn through to get the over the line. There is also a question of whether security was obtained for this investment, I imagine any funds put in were securitised against whatever remaining assets were held.


Agreed - I had in mind buying incremental slots for p2p long haul rather than develop a short haul network at LHR (which IMO is a pipe dream for VS).

It will be interesting to see what flows from the administration - both in terms of the security package as well as interests in the assets...
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:54 am

Armodeen wrote:
Problem is, the solid routes are/will be gobbled up by Loganair/Eastern before VS have even come close to a decision, let alone pressed ahead with it.

They have the ability to expand to fill gaps and they are doing just that.

DobboDobbo wrote:
The reality for VS is that any expansion in London is going to be incremental. They may be able to buy up the odd slot pair here and there and resume the likes of Tokyo, Beijing, Bangkok, Toronto, Vancouver - but this is not guaranteed and will take considerable time.

Their plan, I think, was to get Virgin Connect up and running at MAN before moving it lock stock to an expanded LHR. That plan now appears to be in tatters.

I do not know whether this objective remains in situ, but it is possible that a regional network centred on a hub at MAN covering - for example - Inverness, Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Belfast, Dublin, Cork, Isle of Man, Newcastle, Cardiff, Bristol, Norwich, Southend, Southampton, Exeter, Newquay and the Channel Islands might be attractive for VS.

The upside is that they can cherry pick those bits of the FlyBe business that might form a viable business without the onerous legacy issues that business faced, but of course this will be building an airline from a clean sheet of paper.

Time will tell - I don’t expect anyone or anything to move quickly in the present trading conditions.


And therein lies the first problem for VS - if they still have the appetite for Virgin Connect (who knows) they face a competitive pressure that was not their previously.
 
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Aisak
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Re: Virgin Atlantic's Expansion Options

Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:05 pm

Caluma350 wrote:
Further to this the Virgin Connect project is now very likely dead with the demise of Flybe. Virgin Connect which is what the new airline would have been called would have utilized as a feeder / short haul option for Virgins expansion outlined in the flightglobal article above. Now there is speculation that this acquisition was motivated by VS wanting to have a far greater “buying power" with any new slots with LHR third runway, or have the ability to utilize Flybes LHR slots. In any case it is now unlikely to happen as Virgin and the consortium know as Connect airways didn't want to put more money into Flybe as their financial results worsened.

Let’s not forget that Connect Airways consists of two separate companies each with its own AOC and fleet.
-FlyBE had the ability to issue tickets on its flights, that won’t be needed for Virgin Connect flights carrying the VS code no matter who operates the flight.
-FlyBE had a great brand awareness and network but it didn’t fit a purpose within VS network. First and prime objective of a regional is to feed the mainline. Only MAN flights and the LHR flying with the remedy slots could achieve that purpose. Everything else was just a nice bonus, only if profitable.
-FlyBE had the ability to market and sell seats of franchisees eastern and Blue Islands. If Virgin Atlantic still finds this path as a good way to increase business, they just can place the VS code on these flights just like BE did and market the flights like Virgin Whatever.

Now the Connect Airways holding just consists of StobartAir. And they can perform the task of being the Virgin Connect franchisee just as well as FlyBE could. They just need to place Virgin stickers on their fleet and start flying in and out of MAN to where VS tells them to... no rebranding, no past bad press, no nothing... just NEW Virgin Connect flights with a VS code operated by StobartAir. Just like the old little red but out of MAN
 
3AWM
Posts: 232
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Re: Virgin Atlantic's Expansion Options

Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:53 pm

Aisak wrote:
Ability to issue tickets on its flights, that won’t be needed for Virgin Connect flights carrying the VS code no matter who operates the flight.
-FlyBE had a great brand awareness and network but it didn’t fit a purpose within VS network. First and prime objective of a regional is to feed the mainline. Only MAN flights and the LHR flying with the remedy slots could achieve that purpose. Everything else was just a nice bonus, only if profitable.
-FlyBE had the ability to market and sell seats of franchisees eastern and Blue Islands. If Virgin Atlantic still finds this path as a good way to increase business, they just can place the VS code on these flights just like BE did and market the flights like Virgin Whatever.

Now the Connect Airways holding just consists of StobartAir. And they can perform the task of being the Virgin Connect franchisee just as well as FlyBE could. They just need to place Virgin stickers on their fleet and start flying in and out of MAN to where VS tells them to... no rebranding, no past bad press, no nothing... just NEW Virgin Connect flights with a VS code operated by StobartAir. Just like the old little red but out of MAN


:checkmark: Exactly.

This is what Stobart did at Southend already - they operated their own frames with Flybe decals and Flybe sold the tickets, same with Loganair and Blue Islands. All of these flights can be sold under the Virgin brand who can make commission on it without having to operate any flights.

Then they can take on LHR and MAN routes only. Doesn't sound that different to what was originally announced:

https://corporate.virginatlantic.com/gb ... irmed.html

The Combined Group will offer significant benefits for customers:

    Deliver more choice to customers by linking UK regions and Ireland to Virgin Atlantic’s extensive long-haul network through improved connectivity at Manchester Airport and London Heathrow
    Provide a strong foundation to secure the long-term future of Flybe, its customers and its people by leveraging the combined commercial, operational and functional expertise and scale of Virgin Atlantic and Stobart Group
    Utilise the strength of the Virgin Atlantic brand, and the offer of an enhanced customer experience in keeping with Virgin Atlantic’s heritage
    Provide the Combined Group with an enhanced presence at Manchester Airport , London Heathrow Airport, with the potential to grow further in London Southend Airport
 
dcajet
Posts: 4707
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Re: Rumour: Virgin Atlantic to announce W20 schedule with new routes

Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:03 pm

NearMiss wrote:
I was wondering if Virgin had any plans on coming to SCL after LATAM's deal with Delta.


No plans. Even planned new service to Sao Paulo GRU is on hold at the moment, until October.
Keep calm and wash your hands.

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