SpaceshipDC10
Topic Author
Posts: 6633
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:44 am

Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:37 pm

Flair Airlines Ltd. is pulling out of the airport in Abbotsford, B.C., due to a lack of passengers and intense competition from rival budget carrier Swoop.

(…)Flair operates 12 flights between the two cities each week, but plans to stop in June. Swoop, Flair's only competitor along the route, operates 16 flights per week in winter and 24 flights per week in summer.

https://www.guelphtoday.com/national-bu ... ff-2087443

Well, after moving away from YHM following the arrival of Swoop, now it's YXX's turn. Will they try to serve YVR instead or just abandon B.C.?
 
User avatar
ACCS300
Posts: 543
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:05 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:57 pm

Swoop's loonie sale probably did it.
 
whywhytee
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:50 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:48 pm

Don’t they already have YVR?
 
SpaceshipDC10
Topic Author
Posts: 6633
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:44 am

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:18 pm

ACCS300 wrote:
Swoop's loonie sale probably did it.


Probably indeed.

whywhytee wrote:
Don’t they already have YVR?


Yes, you are right. I thought they focused on YXX.
 
jimbo737
Posts: 494
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:18 am

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:29 pm

How will I get my $700 worth of unlimited flights til mid May after they ditch YXX?

A sound strategy. A ULCC pulling out of the only real secondary airports in Canada, and focusing on hyper expensive airports instead.

Tick, tick, tick.......
Last edited by jimbo737 on Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
rikkus67
Posts: 1328
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2000 11:34 am

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:31 pm

whywhytee wrote:
Don’t they already have YVR?


They do. https://flyflair.com/travel-info/flair-air-route-map/
AC.WA.CP.DL.RW.CO.WG.WJ.WN.KI.FL.SK.ACL.UA.US.F9
 
russyyz
Posts: 30
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:15 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:35 pm

I wanted to fly them to YXX this summer but they only offered flights from YYZ with two stops en route, and awful arrival time to boot. So, I reluctantly booked Swoop from Hamilton with nonstop day time service for $100 CAD!
Quiet 2019: YYZ-ATL-HAV-ATL-YYZ; YTZ-YUL; YYZ-YQB-YTZ; YCM-YTZ; YTZ-EWR; JFK-BUF but I got to visit the TWA Hotel!; YUL-YTZ and a local heli flight.
Hoping in 2020: YYZ-YWG-YXX/YVR-NRT-SGN-ICN-ATL-YYZ including my first B748i!
 
whywhytee
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:50 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:35 pm

ACCS300 wrote:
Swoop's loonie sale probably did it.

Sad to see westjet trying to kill the competition :/ Flair does have an advantage for passengers over them though, and it’s YYZ and YVR instead of YHM and YXX.
 
alan3
Posts: 398
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2014 6:13 am

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:15 pm

Flair likely knew this would happen as soon Swoop announced their $1 sales: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... predatory/

And it wouldn't be the first time Flair accuses them of predatory pricing. As per the article: "a 2018 Federal Court filing related to the case, the regulator said it had “reason to believe that the parties [Westjet and Swoop] have engaged in conduct that constitutes an abuse of dominant position." Two years later and the Competition Bureau are apparently "still investigating" Westjet's predatory pricing.

First YHM, now YXX.

Westjet have been determined since Day 1 to use any tactics necessary to crush Flair, and will probably succeed. Putting Flair into the ever-growing heap of airlines that have tried to provide some competition to the AC/WS Duopoly. (Somehow, Sunwing still survive).
 
wrongwayup
Posts: 419
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 6:23 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:12 pm

There would be no Swoop without Flair, and there is no doubt in my mind that what Swoop/WJ is doing is absoutely anti-competitive, whether just de-facto or if it is indeed actually illegal. But if Flair doesn't survive long enough for the competition authorities to do anything about it...
 
flyb
Posts: 557
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2006 7:39 am

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:31 pm

Good to see Flair move into YOW. They seem to be continuing to build on routes that WS and AC would rather not "Swoop/Rouge". Good to see Flair seemingly making a go at slow and strategic growth.
 
jimbo737
Posts: 494
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:18 am

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:40 pm

I wouldn't wager that Flair will be around in June to operate any of these new services.

Trying to operate as a ULCC out of YVR and YYZ is absurd, and even more so when operating the route with no frequency, resulting in it appealing to only the lowest of the low yield market.

In the next few weeks:

A WS YYZ-YVR-YYZ base fare is $579 + $197.85 in obligatory taxes and fees, all of which are pass through to various government / defacto government agencies and tax collectors.

A comparably priced Swoop YHM-YXX-YHM fare of $522.34 incurs taxes and fees of "just" $112.25. Not only that, the airline is probably saving something in the order of $40 per r/t in reduced airport costs.

Operating into secondary airports is far cheaper for the consumer, as a result of it being far cheaper for the airline.

Flair is moving into the "high cost / low fare" market segment, the same world as every other airline that has failed over the past 25 years.

Caveat emptor.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2529
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:05 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
I wouldn't wager that Flair will be around in June to operate any of these new services.

Trying to operate as a ULCC out of YVR and YYZ is absurd, and even more so when operating the route with no frequency, resulting in it appealing to only the lowest of the low yield market.

In the next few weeks:

A WS YYZ-YVR-YYZ base fare is $579 + $197.85 in obligatory taxes and fees, all of which are pass through to various government / defacto government agencies and tax collectors.

A comparably priced Swoop YHM-YXX-YHM fare of $522.34 incurs taxes and fees of "just" $112.25. Not only that, the airline is probably saving something in the order of $40 per r/t in reduced airport costs.

Operating into secondary airports is far cheaper for the consumer, as a result of it being far cheaper for the airline.

Flair is moving into the "high cost / low fare" market segment, the same world as every other airline that has failed over the past 25 years.

Caveat emptor.


...except one, WestJet! They seem to be doing alright after first 'complementing' YHM with YYZ about 17 years ago and then all but abandoning YHM a year later.

Maybe Flair are wise to abandon YXX and YHM as they know WS will probably never cannibalize/Swoopify any part of YYZ, YVR or YYC.
 
User avatar
cirrusdragoon
Posts: 124
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:42 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:07 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
jimbo737 wrote:
I wouldn't wager that Flair will be around in June to operate any of these new services.

Trying to operate as a ULCC out of YVR and YYZ is absurd, and even more so when operating the route with no frequency, resulting in it appealing to only the lowest of the low yield market.

In the next few weeks:

A WS YYZ-YVR-YYZ base fare is $579 + $197.85 in obligatory taxes and fees, all of which are pass through to various government / defacto government agencies and tax collectors.

A comparably priced Swoop YHM-YXX-YHM fare of $522.34 incurs taxes and fees of "just" $112.25. Not only that, the airline is probably saving something in the order of $40 per r/t in reduced airport costs.

Operating into secondary airports is far cheaper for the consumer, as a result of it being far cheaper for the airline.

Flair is moving into the "high cost / low fare" market segment, the same world as every other airline that has failed over the past 25 years.

Caveat emptor.


...except one, WestJet! They seem to be doing alright after first 'complementing' YHM with YYZ about 17 years ago and then all but abandoning YHM a year later.

Maybe Flair are wise to abandon YXX and YHM as they know WS will probably never cannibalize/Swoopify any part of YYZ, YVR or YYC.


except WS wasn’t ulcc, they were just low cost.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2529
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:15 pm

cirrusdragoon wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
jimbo737 wrote:
I wouldn't wager that Flair will be around in June to operate any of these new services.

Trying to operate as a ULCC out of YVR and YYZ is absurd, and even more so when operating the route with no frequency, resulting in it appealing to only the lowest of the low yield market.

In the next few weeks:

A WS YYZ-YVR-YYZ base fare is $579 + $197.85 in obligatory taxes and fees, all of which are pass through to various government / defacto government agencies and tax collectors.

A comparably priced Swoop YHM-YXX-YHM fare of $522.34 incurs taxes and fees of "just" $112.25. Not only that, the airline is probably saving something in the order of $40 per r/t in reduced airport costs.

Operating into secondary airports is far cheaper for the consumer, as a result of it being far cheaper for the airline.

Flair is moving into the "high cost / low fare" market segment, the same world as every other airline that has failed over the past 25 years.

Caveat emptor.


...except one, WestJet! They seem to be doing alright after first 'complementing' YHM with YYZ about 17 years ago and then all but abandoning YHM a year later.

Maybe Flair are wise to abandon YXX and YHM as they know WS will probably never cannibalize/Swoopify any part of YYZ, YVR or YYC.


except WS wasn’t ulcc, they were just low cost.


Neither was anyone else back then.
 
User avatar
cirrusdragoon
Posts: 124
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:42 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:18 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
cirrusdragoon wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

...except one, WestJet! They seem to be doing alright after first 'complementing' YHM with YYZ about 17 years ago and then all but abandoning YHM a year later.

Maybe Flair are wise to abandon YXX and YHM as they know WS will probably never cannibalize/Swoopify any part of YYZ, YVR or YYC.


except WS wasn’t ulcc, they were just low cost.


but doesnt the ulcc business model rely on secondary airports in order to thrive? ryanair?
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2529
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:54 pm

cirrusdragoon wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
cirrusdragoon wrote:

except WS wasn’t ulcc, they were just low cost.


but doesnt the ulcc business model rely on secondary airports in order to thrive? ryanair?


Have you seen what Ryanair's been doing the past 5 years?
 
ACDC8
Posts: 7827
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:56 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:45 pm

cirrusdragoon wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
cirrusdragoon wrote:

except WS wasn’t ulcc, they were just low cost.


but doesnt the ulcc business model rely on secondary airports in order to thrive? ryanair?

Canada isn't exactly flourishing with secondary airports. YHM and YXX are literally the only two with any meaningful purpose.
A Grumpy German Is A Sauerkraut
 
Jetsouth
Posts: 365
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:59 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:11 pm

Maybe the ULCC market, at least in Canada, operates best if they operate out of large cities. In thin markets like YHM and YXX, you have one well-financed large competitor that is going to match your price and your planes become empty. And, since its only a few flights a week, it is not going to affect overall revenues of the larger competitor much. If you are an ULCC flying out of a larger city like YVR or YYZ, there is already a large price sensitive market, and for a larger competitor to try to match your price, it would hurt them a lot more. Imagine the drain on AC's or WJ's revenue if they had to match Flair's price on high volume routes such as YVR to YYZ.
 
User avatar
cirrusdragoon
Posts: 124
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:42 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:24 pm

I suppose anything is truly possible. lets see how this plays out for them
 
whywhytee
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:50 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:35 pm

ACDC8 wrote:
cirrusdragoon wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:


but doesnt the ulcc business model rely on secondary airports in order to thrive? ryanair?

Canada isn't exactly flourishing with secondary airports. YHM and YXX are literally the only two with any meaningful purpose.


Will we ever see a LCC terminal built at YHU?
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2529
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:35 am

whywhytee wrote:
ACDC8 wrote:
cirrusdragoon wrote:

but doesnt the ulcc business model rely on secondary airports in order to thrive? ryanair?

Canada isn't exactly flourishing with secondary airports. YHM and YXX are literally the only two with any meaningful purpose.


Will we ever see a LCC terminal built at YHU?


It’s being planned. Jetlines WAS supposed to be an early tenant.
 
Jetsouth
Posts: 365
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:59 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:40 am

Jetlines will never make it. They do not even have any money to start operations. And even they, or Enerjet (another planned startup) start operations, are going to compete in already thin secondary markets with Swoop and Flair as competitors? And if Jetlines was going to operate out of YHU, watch Swoop also start flights there and suck Jetlines dry. As I mentioned previously, I think the only way that ULCC's have any chance to be successful in Canada is if they operate out of major airports. That is a strategy that Flair is starting to do now, and a strategy that Westjet took soon after they started operations.
 
whywhytee
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:50 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:17 pm

Jetsouth wrote:
Jetlines will never make it. They do not even have any money to start operations. And even they, or Enerjet (another planned startup) start operations, are going to compete in already thin secondary markets with Swoop and Flair as competitors? And if Jetlines was going to operate out of YHU, watch Swoop also start flights there and suck Jetlines dry. As I mentioned previously, I think the only way that ULCC's have any chance to be successful in Canada is if they operate out of major airports. That is a strategy that Flair is starting to do now, and a strategy that Westjet took soon after they started operations.


Enerjet already has a 737 MAX painted in their livery so I think they have a higher chance of starting than Jetlines.
 
jimbo737
Posts: 494
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:18 am

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:12 pm

Jetsouth wrote:
Jetlines will never make it. They do not even have any money to start operations. And even they, or Enerjet (another planned startup) start operations, are going to compete in already thin secondary markets with Swoop and Flair as competitors? And if Jetlines was going to operate out of YHU, watch Swoop also start flights there and suck Jetlines dry. As I mentioned previously, I think the only way that ULCC's have any chance to be successful in Canada is if they operate out of major airports. That is a strategy that Flair is starting to do now, and a strategy that Westjet took soon after they started operations.


It was a very, very different world back in 1996 - 2002. There were all kinds of n/s routings not operated by the incumbents and both AC and CP were big, fat and dumb, with bloated cost structures, causing CP to run out of cash the first week of Dec in 1999.

It was relatively easy for WS to enter the various markets, using primary airports in western markets, (YYC, YEG, YXE, YQR, YWG, YLW, YVR, YYJ) and one secondary, (YXX), slowly developing a feed / flow network, and quietly spreading its tentacles over the first 3 years. YHM wasn't added till year 4 of the program.

Today it's a completely different world. AC is no where near as fat and bloated as it was, WS remains significantly lower cost than AC, and Swoop even lower than WS. They are all formidable competitors and certainly not the soft touches Wizz, Jetsmart and others competed with as they were getting traction in the market in their early days. Canada has a linear population of 37m. I would challenge anyone to find a new n/s route that is viable outside the best 10 weeks of the year.

If Swoop was losing money:

1. The drain would have been obvious when reviewing the quarterly numbers when they were available, (excluding the virtual strike- impacted 2Q and 3Q 2018 numbers) and 2: they would not be expanding the Swoop fleet.

If it's profitable, it'll be virtually impossible to establish Swoop is anti-competitive to the Bureau. Contrast this to the situation 20 years ago when AC was losing money hand over fist, but still claiming its lowest yielding operation was "profitable". Even then, that case resulted in a stalemate after a few years and many millions spent on legal fees.

If new entrants try to make a go out of it out of the major airports, they won't be ULCC, and probably not even LCC. Costs will be way higher than necessary with rock bottom yields. It'll take a dozen or more tails to develop a feed / flow network with some sort of frequency to attract some decent yield that somewhat adequately covers that sort of territory, (remembering that WS operated over a geography half that size, and had to worry about filling 90 or seats to breakeven, a far cry from today's 154 or so seats in a -800). And then there's $18 oil back then, compared to today's $55 "cheap" oil.

And people wonder why Jetlines wandered aimlessly for nearly 7 years trying to find investors dumb enough to invest in that "plan".
 
User avatar
cirrusdragoon
Posts: 124
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:42 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:26 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
Jetsouth wrote:
Jetlines will never make it. They do not even have any money to start operations. And even they, or Enerjet (another planned startup) start operations, are going to compete in already thin secondary markets with Swoop and Flair as competitors? And if Jetlines was going to operate out of YHU, watch Swoop also start flights there and suck Jetlines dry. As I mentioned previously, I think the only way that ULCC's have any chance to be successful in Canada is if they operate out of major airports. That is a strategy that Flair is starting to do now, and a strategy that Westjet took soon after they started operations.


It was a very, very different world back in 1996 - 2002. There were all kinds of n/s routings not operated by the incumbents and both AC and CP were big, fat and dumb, with bloated cost structures, causing CP to run out of cash the first week of Dec in 1999.

It was relatively easy for WS to enter the various markets, using primary airports in western markets, (YYC, YEG, YXE, YQR, YWG, YLW, YVR, YYJ) and one secondary, (YXX), slowly developing a feed / flow network, and quietly spreading its tentacles over the first 3 years. YHM wasn't added till year 4 of the program.

Today it's a completely different world. AC is no where near as fat and bloated as it was, WS remains significantly lower cost than AC, and Swoop even lower than WS. They are all formidable competitors and certainly not the soft touches Wizz, Jetsmart and others competed with as they were getting traction in the market in their early days. Canada has a linear population of 37m. I would challenge anyone to find a new n/s route that is viable outside the best 10 weeks of the year.

If Swoop was losing money:

1. The drain would have been obvious when reviewing the quarterly numbers when they were available, (excluding the virtual strike- impacted 2Q and 3Q 2018 numbers) and 2: they would not be expanding the Swoop fleet.

If it's profitable, it'll be virtually impossible to establish Swoop is anti-competitive to the Bureau. Contrast this to the situation 20 years ago when AC was losing money hand over fist, but still claiming its lowest yielding operation was "profitable". Even then, that case resulted in a stalemate after a few years and many millions spent on legal fees.

If new entrants try to make a go out of it out of the major airports, they won't be ULCC, and probably not even LCC. Costs will be way higher than necessary with rock bottom yields. It'll take a dozen or more tails to develop a feed / flow network with some sort of frequency to attract some decent yield that somewhat adequately covers that sort of territory, (remembering that WS operated over a geography half that size, and had to worry about filling 90 or seats to breakeven, a far cry from today's 154 or so seats in a -800). And then there's $18 oil back then, compared to today's $55 "cheap" oil.

And people wonder why Jetlines wandered aimlessly for nearly 7 years trying to find investors dumb enough to invest in that "plan".


I trust your analysis Jimbo. Well articulated.
 
Jetsouth
Posts: 365
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:59 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:41 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
Jetsouth wrote:
Jetlines will never make it. They do not even have any money to start operations. And even they, or Enerjet (another planned startup) start operations, are going to compete in already thin secondary markets with Swoop and Flair as competitors? And if Jetlines was going to operate out of YHU, watch Swoop also start flights there and suck Jetlines dry. As I mentioned previously, I think the only way that ULCC's have any chance to be successful in Canada is if they operate out of major airports. That is a strategy that Flair is starting to do now, and a strategy that Westjet took soon after they started operations.


It was a very, very different world back in 1996 - 2002. There were all kinds of n/s routings not operated by the incumbents and both AC and CP were big, fat and dumb, with bloated cost structures, causing CP to run out of cash the first week of Dec in 1999.

It was relatively easy for WS to enter the various markets, using primary airports in western markets, (YYC, YEG, YXE, YQR, YWG, YLW, YVR, YYJ) and one secondary, (YXX), slowly developing a feed / flow network, and quietly spreading its tentacles over the first 3 years. YHM wasn't added till year 4 of the program.

Today it's a completely different world. AC is no where near as fat and bloated as it was, WS remains significantly lower cost than AC, and Swoop even lower than WS. They are all formidable competitors and certainly not the soft touches Wizz, Jetsmart and others competed with as they were getting traction in the market in their early days. Canada has a linear population of 37m. I would challenge anyone to find a new n/s route that is viable outside the best 10 weeks of the year.

If Swoop was losing money:

1. The drain would have been obvious when reviewing the quarterly numbers when they were available, (excluding the virtual strike- impacted 2Q and 3Q 2018 numbers) and 2: they would not be expanding the Swoop fleet.

If it's profitable, it'll be virtually impossible to establish Swoop is anti-competitive to the Bureau. Contrast this to the situation 20 years ago when AC was losing money hand over fist, but still claiming its lowest yielding operation was "profitable". Even then, that case resulted in a stalemate after a few years and many millions spent on legal fees.

If new entrants try to make a go out of it out of the major airports, they won't be ULCC, and probably not even LCC. Costs will be way higher than necessary with rock bottom yields. It'll take a dozen or more tails to develop a feed / flow network with some sort of frequency to attract some decent yield that somewhat adequately covers that sort of territory, (remembering that WS operated over a geography half that size, and had to worry about filling 90 or seats to breakeven, a far cry from today's 154 or so seats in a -800). And then there's $18 oil back then, compared to today's $55 "cheap" oil.

And people wonder why Jetlines wandered aimlessly for nearly 7 years trying to find investors dumb enough to invest in that "plan".


This just shows that the ULCC model just doesn't work in Canada. Flair has realized this, and is now only operating out of major airports. Indeed, its Eastern expansion is simply that: major airports. Expanding into Ottawa is probably a good move, that market has not been a focus of either AC or WJ for some time. Probably Flair will just be a low cost airline, rather than a ULCC one, offering cheaper flights than AC or WJ from major airports. And their relatively small operations in these major cities does not really take much traffic away from AC and WJ.
 
Jetsouth
Posts: 365
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:59 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:59 pm

Flair, for instance, is entering the Ottawa market with, I believe one daily flight to YYZ. Yet, I count today, that AC and WJ combined have 33 flights between these two cities daily. I would imagine most of those traveling this route are either for business or connections to other flights. They would most likely not travel with Flair even though they offered cheaper prices. Therefore a new competitor coming in with only one flight a day, offering limited, if any connections is only going to appeal to the budget conscious. There are probably enough budget conscious people flying between these two cities that would mostly fill the Flair flight. Plus this only one a day flight is not going to put much of a dent into WJ and AC volumes. Only if Flair would increase its daily frequencies, or offer a bigger transfer network would AC and WJ probably try to reduce its prices to compete with Flair. I believe Flair only has 7 or 8 planes in its entire network?
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2529
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:08 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
Jetsouth wrote:
Jetlines will never make it. They do not even have any money to start operations. And even they, or Enerjet (another planned startup) start operations, are going to compete in already thin secondary markets with Swoop and Flair as competitors? And if Jetlines was going to operate out of YHU, watch Swoop also start flights there and suck Jetlines dry. As I mentioned previously, I think the only way that ULCC's have any chance to be successful in Canada is if they operate out of major airports. That is a strategy that Flair is starting to do now, and a strategy that Westjet took soon after they started operations.


It was a very, very different world back in 1996 - 2002. There were all kinds of n/s routings not operated by the incumbents and both AC and CP were big, fat and dumb, with bloated cost structures, causing CP to run out of cash the first week of Dec in 1999.

It was relatively easy for WS to enter the various markets, using primary airports in western markets, (YYC, YEG, YXE, YQR, YWG, YLW, YVR, YYJ) and one secondary, (YXX), slowly developing a feed / flow network, and quietly spreading its tentacles over the first 3 years. YHM wasn't added till year 4 of the program.

Today it's a completely different world. AC is no where near as fat and bloated as it was, WS remains significantly lower cost than AC, and Swoop even lower than WS. They are all formidable competitors and certainly not the soft touches Wizz, Jetsmart and others competed with as they were getting traction in the market in their early days. Canada has a linear population of 37m. I would challenge anyone to find a new n/s route that is viable outside the best 10 weeks of the year.

If Swoop was losing money:

1. The drain would have been obvious when reviewing the quarterly numbers when they were available, (excluding the virtual strike- impacted 2Q and 3Q 2018 numbers) and 2: they would not be expanding the Swoop fleet.

If it's profitable, it'll be virtually impossible to establish Swoop is anti-competitive to the Bureau. Contrast this to the situation 20 years ago when AC was losing money hand over fist, but still claiming its lowest yielding operation was "profitable". Even then, that case resulted in a stalemate after a few years and many millions spent on legal fees.

If new entrants try to make a go out of it out of the major airports, they won't be ULCC, and probably not even LCC. Costs will be way higher than necessary with rock bottom yields. It'll take a dozen or more tails to develop a feed / flow network with some sort of frequency to attract some decent yield that somewhat adequately covers that sort of territory, (remembering that WS operated over a geography half that size, and had to worry about filling 90 or seats to breakeven, a far cry from today's 154 or so seats in a -800). And then there's $18 oil back then, compared to today's $55 "cheap" oil.

And people wonder why Jetlines wandered aimlessly for nearly 7 years trying to find investors dumb enough to invest in that "plan".


You raise a good point about if someone else comes along, there’s no room for another ULCC. Flair look like they’ve learned from their prior mistakes and with each passing month appear to be on a more solid footing with better and better prospects for being around for the longer term.

If a “new” entrant comes along, it’ll either be:
-a leisure carrier to replace TS that is largely focussed on sun routes and not focussed on what AC and WS are up to (which is exactly why WG have been so successful); or
-a non-LCC/ULCC, namely an expanded Porter with A220s and a hub at YOW. However, so far PD have not taken the plunge and have been content for years with their stable size and near-monopoly of YTZ. If PD weren’t profitable, they wouldn’t have made it to over 13 years old.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2529
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:18 pm

Jetsouth wrote:
Flair, for instance, is entering the Ottawa market with, I believe one daily flight to YYZ. Yet, I count today, that AC and WJ combined have 33 flights between these two cities daily. I would imagine most of those traveling this route are either for business or connections to other flights. They would most likely not travel with Flair even though they offered cheaper prices. Therefore a new competitor coming in with only one flight a day, offering limited, if any connections is only going to appeal to the budget conscious. There are probably enough budget conscious people flying between these two cities that would mostly fill the Flair flight. Plus this only one a day flight is not going to put much of a dent into WJ and AC volumes. Only if Flair would increase its daily frequencies, or offer a bigger transfer network would AC and WJ probably try to reduce its prices to compete with Flair. I believe Flair only has 7 or 8 planes in its entire network?


Flair are smart to only launch YOW-YYZ 1x daily. You see the exact same thing in the US with Frontier and (especially) Spirit jumping onto big frequency/capacity trunk routes with 1x daily service. By keeping it low frequency, the “big boys” generally don’t try to crush the ULCC. With fares as low as $59, Flair will be poaching more from Via, Greyhound and driving than from the three existing competitors in the Eastern Triangle...not to mention stimulating new O&D traffic on the country’s 3rd largest city pair.
 
whywhytee
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:50 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:52 pm

I really hope to see flair succeed. We really do need another competitor up here in Canada.
 
sully66
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed May 23, 2018 11:22 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:02 am

It would be nice to see them in Saskatchewan. Airfares are atrocious
out of YXE or YQR
 
anrec80
Posts: 2416
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:03 am

whywhytee wrote:
Enerjet already has a 737 MAX painted in their livery so I think they have a higher chance of starting than Jetlines.


Well, if they remain alive through this year, once 737MAX are allowed to fly. I’m curious - will someone help them with some 738 at the mean time, or who knows what happens to those MAX frames?
 
Insertnamehere
Posts: 147
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:44 am

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:56 am

Missed opportunity for flairlines
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2529
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:19 pm

Insertnamehere wrote:
Missed opportunity for flairlines


What is?
 
wrongwayup
Posts: 419
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 6:23 pm

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:33 pm

whywhytee wrote:
Enerjet already has a 737 MAX painted in their livery so I think they have a higher chance of starting than Jetlines.


First I've heard of this - got a link to a photo? Would love to know more.
 
Whiteguy
Posts: 1445
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 6:11 am

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:53 pm

wrongwayup wrote:
whywhytee wrote:
Enerjet already has a 737 MAX painted in their livery so I think they have a higher chance of starting than Jetlines.


First I've heard of this - got a link to a photo? Would love to know more.


They actually have 2 or 3 painted now, 4 built I think.
 
SpaceshipDC10
Topic Author
Posts: 6633
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:44 am

Re: Flair Airlines pulling out of Abbotsford

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:41 pm

Whiteguy wrote:
wrongwayup wrote:
whywhytee wrote:
Enerjet already has a 737 MAX painted in their livery so I think they have a higher chance of starting than Jetlines.


First I've heard of this - got a link to a photo? Would love to know more.


They actually have 2 or 3 painted now, 4 built I think.


I like the tail design: https://www.planespotters.net/photo/104 ... -737-8-max

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Enerjet

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos