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LAXintl
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Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:07 pm

Since I received many requests, here is an update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.

As posted prior, the below list contains estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates also based on oldest to newest airframes for many common models.

Pax
A220-100 - $29.7 - 35.3M, $205-270,000
A220-300 - $34.9 - 39.9M, $245-310,000
A319 – $6.5 - 36.5M, $75-280,000
A320 – $2.0 - 43.8M, $60-320,000
A320NEO - $40 - 49.5M, $295-350,000
A321 – $10.1 - 51.2M, $130-370,000
A330-200 – $14.0 - 80.0M, $140-610,000
A330-300 - $11.4 - 91.0M, $140-690,000
A350-900 - $104.5 - 154.0M, $800-1,100,000
A380-800 - $66.0 - 220.0M, $520-1,80,000
B737-700 - $7.3 - 37.5M, $85-280,000
B737-800 - $10.0 - 47.0M, $115-325,000
B737-900ER - $18.8 - 49.0M, $200-340,000
B747-400 – $3.3 – 9.6M, $90-180,000
B767-300ER – $3.2 – 35.5M, $90-330,000
B777-200ER – $12.0 – 44.0M, $200-350,000
B777-300ER – $50.0 – 156.0M, $500-1,330,000
B787-8 - $70.0 - 124.0M, $625-980,000
B787-9 - $99.0 - 146.0, $820-1,100,000
CRJ700 – $4.8 – 23.0M, $65-185,000
CRJ900 - $7.0 – 24.5M, $85-195,000
Q400 – $6.4 – 19.5M, $60-175,000
EMB175 – $9.5 – 28.0M, $120-225,000
EMB190 – $10.5 – 32.0M, $130-245,000
ATR-72 – $3.5 – 21.5M, $60-170,000

Freighter
A330F – $48.5 - 84.0M, $340-680,000
B744F – $12.0 - 29.0M, $225-380,000
B748F – $95.0 - 174.0M, $750-1,400,000
B763F – $20.0 - 66.0M, $250-525,000
B777F – $88.0 - 158.0M, $700-1,300.000


The information is derived from actual transactions along with market valuations and is current as of September 2019

Sources: IBA/ISTAT
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peterinlisbon
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:54 pm

It's strange how it's cheaper to rent a 747-400 than an ATR.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:15 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Since I received many requests, here is an update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.


Thank you LAXintl, I love these threads!
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mercure1
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:23 pm

Thank you for the update!

Comparing previous one, I notice both Airbus and Boeing narrowbodies actually saw price increases. Guess this might be MAX grounding and NEO production delay related as operators seek older variants.
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Polot
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:30 pm

peterinlisbon wrote:
It's strange how it's cheaper to rent a 747-400 than an ATR.

Keep in mind the newest ATR is brand new and the newest passenger 744 is 15 years old.
 
alasizon
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:54 pm

LAXintl wrote:
CRJ700 – $4.8 – 23.0M, $65-185,000
Q400 – $6.4 – 19.5M, $60-175,000

Interesting that the oldest Q400 is fetching more than the CR7s which have a higher demand.
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A380MSN004
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:00 pm

Thanks LAXINTL. As usual, very good thread
 
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UPlog
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:09 pm

Thank you for this thread over many years now.

Had a question regarding MD-11F values with UPS just having acquired two frames from LH Cargo.
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LAXintl
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:10 am

MD11F - $2.0 - 5.0M, $65,000-$95,000

Big bargain.
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mercure1
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:45 am

How much are those SA A340s worth?
mercure f-wtcc
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:09 am

OMG thank you for this data. Love it.

How can this line be right? I thought used A380s were scrap value.
A380-800 - $66.0 - 220.0M, $520-1,80,000
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:55 am

mercure1 wrote:
How much are those SA A340s worth?


A340-300 - $3.0 - 8.0M, $100-210,000
A340-600 - $5.0 - 11.0M, $190-250,000
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LAXintl
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:01 am

kitplane01 wrote:
OMG thank you for this data. Love it.

How can this line be right? I thought used A380s were scrap value.
A380-800 - $66.0 - 220.0M, $520-1,80,000


From other recent thread if you recall scrap value for Dr. Peters was estimated at $70mil. Unfortunately so far they've not been able to generate that on the initial scrapped frames.
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ghost77
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:28 am

Any chance we can have the info regarding the E2?

g77
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:18 pm

ghost77 wrote:
Any chance we can have the info regarding the E2?
g77


Really not been many (if any) secondary market transactions for the type to help establish valuation.
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janders
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:41 pm

Thanks for the update.

Will be interesting to see how fast values fall on NG and CEOs once MAX is back and Airbus gets NEO deliveries back and track.

Seems these older models and their owners got a nice boost atleast in the short term.

Also notice 772s declining pretty rapidly.
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:52 pm

It's probably a small gripe in the overall scheme of things but, having lived a good deal of my life south of the Equator, can posters be a bit more thoughtful about using terms life 'winter' and 'summer'. It's 30+ degrees here today...
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:49 pm

It will be interesting to see how A321ceo values and rents hold up over the next few years, at current fuel prices its likely very competitive CASM-wise to A320neo, albeit at bigger trip cost with more seats to fill (which should be fine assuming travel growth holds up and slots scarcity starts driving upguages). The P2F programme should help with getting older airframes off pax use and set a floor for RVs as well.
 
sunking737
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:55 pm

If an airline was flying a say 20 year old 737-800, its cheaper to own now then lease??
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travelhound
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:26 pm

sunking737 wrote:
If an airline was flying a say 20 year old 737-800, its cheaper to own now then lease??


If an airline is operating a 20-year old 737-800, ownership gives the airline the flexibility to retire, part-out, sell, store, etc the aircraft in a manner that best suits the management of the fleet plan.

QANTAS recently re-financed / leased some of their 12 year old A330-200's coming off lease. This suggests they have a commitment to the type (3-6 years) and that they see little benefit in owning the aircraft. Conversely, they are purchasing outright their new 787-9 aircraft, arguably a higher quality asset.

With airlines like Alaska, United, Delta, AA, QF typically using an aircraft for the full duration of it's economic life, financing transaction can have other factors that artificially influence the value of an aircraft.

For example a lessor and airline may agree to re-lease, buyout, adjust the terms of a lease if from a business sense it suits the lessor / airline. For the lessor, they may want to monitise the asset, so the funds can be used to purchase new aircraft and for the airline they might want to buy the asset / refinance with another body as the asset still has economic value for them (interiors/maintenance checks/spare parts/crew training/commonality, etc).

In this example the lessor may be willing to sell the aircraft at a discount and the airline willing to lease additional new aircraft. On the flip side, the airline may be willing to buy / re-lease the aircraft at a market rate, whilst at the same willing to lease new aircraft at a discount.
 
codc10
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:07 pm

PM wrote:
It's probably a small gripe in the overall scheme of things but, having lived a good deal of my life south of the Equator, can posters be a bit more thoughtful about using terms life 'winter' and 'summer'. It's 30+ degrees here today...


This time of year, I envy you, but it doesn't change the fact that we are in the IATA Winter season currently. Personally, I prefer using quarters to identify multi-month chunks of time (less than a year) but there is precedent for identifying the seasons as such in this industry.
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:10 pm

sunking737 wrote:
If an airline was flying a say 20 year old 737-800, its cheaper to own now then lease??


If said airline had MAXs on order or in service? Very much so. Any operator that counted on MAXs to gradually replace older NGs (15+ years old) returning to lessors now faces the prospect of having to extend these A/C to cover lift, in a time when other operators seeking NG leases to cover for MAX. This supply and demand imbalance means that lessors can demand higher rents and (more importantly) longer extensions/leases than otherwise possible (3-4 yr extensions of 14-16yr 738s can get close to 200k/month which is nuts when brand new NGs/MAXs are/were getting leased for <300k/month)

Financing/ownership would mean that hopefully, the A/C is now paid off and can just be operated for the precise time needed to cover for MAX capacity before subsequent retirement/sale.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:31 pm

Type Lease rates Lease rates Gross return Gross return
low end top end low end top end low end top end
A220-100 29.700.000 35.300.000 205.000 270.000 0,69% 0,76%
A220-300 34.900.000 39.900.000 245.000 310.000 0,70% 0,78%
A319 6.500.000 36.500.000 75.000 280.000 1,15% 0,77%
A320 2.000.000 43.800.000 60.000 320.000 3,00% 0,73%
A320NEO 40.000.000 49.500.000 295.000 350.000 0,74% 0,71%
A321 10.100.000 51.200.000 130.000 370.000 1,29% 0,72%
A330-200 14.000.000 80.000.000 140.000 610.000 1,00% 0,76%
A330-300 11.400.000 91.000.000 140.000 690.000 1,23% 0,76%
A350-900 104.500.000 154.000.000 800.000 1.100.000 0,77% 0,71%
A380-800 66.000.000 220.000.000 520.000 1.800.000 0,79% 0,82%
B737-700 7.300.000 37.500.000 85.000 280.000 1,16% 0,75%
B737-800 10.000.000 47.000.000 115.000 325.000 1,15% 0,69%
B737-900ER 18.800.000 49.000.000 200.000 340.000 1,06% 0,69%
B747-400 3.300.000 9.600.000 90.000 180.000 2,73% 1,88%
B767-300ER 3.200.000 35.500.000 90.000 330.000 2,81% 0,93%
B777-200ER 12.000.000 44.000.000 200.000 350.000 1,67% 0,80%
B777-300ER 55.000.000 156.000.000 500.000 1.330.000 0,91% 0,85%
B787-8 70.000.000 124.000.000 625.000 980.000 0,89% 0,79%
B787-9 99.000.000 146.000.000 820.000 1.100.000 0,83% 0,75%
CRJ700 4.800.000 23.000.000 65.000 185.000 1,35% 0,80%
CRJ900 7.000.000 24.500.000 85.000 195.000 1,21% 0,80%
Q400 6.400.000 19.500.000 60.000 175.000 0,94% 0,90%
ENB175 9.500.000 28.000.000 120.000 225.000 1,26% 0,80%
EBM190 10.500.000 32.000.000 130.000 245.000 1,24% 0,77%
ATR-72 3.500.000 21.500.000 60.000 170.000 1,71% 0,79%


A330F 48.500.000 84.000.000 340.000 680.000 0,70% 0,81%
B744F 12.000.000 29.000.000 225.000 380.000 1,88% 1,31%
B748F 95.000.000 174.000.000 750.000 1.400.000 0,79% 0,80%
B763F 20.000.000 66.000.000 250.000 525.000 1,25% 0,80%


I was interested in the gross return, if looking at gross return of any investment, it tells you something with the risk the investors see in this. The higher the return, the higher the perceived risk. Of course, this is not very scientific but good for giving an idea.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:02 am

Dutchy wrote:
Type Lease rates Lease rates Gross return Gross return
low end top end low end top end low end top end
A220-100 29.700.000 35.300.000 205.000 270.000 0,69% 0,76%
A220-300 34.900.000 39.900.000 245.000 310.000 0,70% 0,78%
A319 6.500.000 36.500.000 75.000 280.000 1,15% 0,77%
A320 2.000.000 43.800.000 60.000 320.000 3,00% 0,73%
A320NEO 40.000.000 49.500.000 295.000 350.000 0,74% 0,71%
A321 10.100.000 51.200.000 130.000 370.000 1,29% 0,72%
A330-200 14.000.000 80.000.000 140.000 610.000 1,00% 0,76%
A330-300 11.400.000 91.000.000 140.000 690.000 1,23% 0,76%
A350-900 104.500.000 154.000.000 800.000 1.100.000 0,77% 0,71%
A380-800 66.000.000 220.000.000 520.000 1.800.000 0,79% 0,82%
B737-700 7.300.000 37.500.000 85.000 280.000 1,16% 0,75%
B737-800 10.000.000 47.000.000 115.000 325.000 1,15% 0,69%
B737-900ER 18.800.000 49.000.000 200.000 340.000 1,06% 0,69%
B747-400 3.300.000 9.600.000 90.000 180.000 2,73% 1,88%
B767-300ER 3.200.000 35.500.000 90.000 330.000 2,81% 0,93%
B777-200ER 12.000.000 44.000.000 200.000 350.000 1,67% 0,80%
B777-300ER 55.000.000 156.000.000 500.000 1.330.000 0,91% 0,85%
B787-8 70.000.000 124.000.000 625.000 980.000 0,89% 0,79%
B787-9 99.000.000 146.000.000 820.000 1.100.000 0,83% 0,75%
CRJ700 4.800.000 23.000.000 65.000 185.000 1,35% 0,80%
CRJ900 7.000.000 24.500.000 85.000 195.000 1,21% 0,80%
Q400 6.400.000 19.500.000 60.000 175.000 0,94% 0,90%
ENB175 9.500.000 28.000.000 120.000 225.000 1,26% 0,80%
EBM190 10.500.000 32.000.000 130.000 245.000 1,24% 0,77%
ATR-72 3.500.000 21.500.000 60.000 170.000 1,71% 0,79%


A330F 48.500.000 84.000.000 340.000 680.000 0,70% 0,81%
B744F 12.000.000 29.000.000 225.000 380.000 1,88% 1,31%
B748F 95.000.000 174.000.000 750.000 1.400.000 0,79% 0,80%
B763F 20.000.000 66.000.000 250.000 525.000 1,25% 0,80%


I was interested in the gross return, if looking at gross return of any investment, it tells you something with the risk the investors see in this. The higher the return, the higher the perceived risk. Of course, this is not very scientific but good for giving an idea.


:confused:

I don't get the 777 variants. I would think a brand new 77W would be a better investment than a 7/8 year old 772. Why is a brand new 77W viewed as slightly riskier?

EDIT: same for the last off the line 772 and 763. The latter at least is in demand as a freighter.
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dstblj52
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:26 am

1989worstyear wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Type Lease rates Lease rates Gross return Gross return
low end top end low end top end low end top end
A220-100 29.700.000 35.300.000 205.000 270.000 0,69% 0,76%
A220-300 34.900.000 39.900.000 245.000 310.000 0,70% 0,78%
A319 6.500.000 36.500.000 75.000 280.000 1,15% 0,77%
A320 2.000.000 43.800.000 60.000 320.000 3,00% 0,73%
A320NEO 40.000.000 49.500.000 295.000 350.000 0,74% 0,71%
A321 10.100.000 51.200.000 130.000 370.000 1,29% 0,72%
A330-200 14.000.000 80.000.000 140.000 610.000 1,00% 0,76%
A330-300 11.400.000 91.000.000 140.000 690.000 1,23% 0,76%
A350-900 104.500.000 154.000.000 800.000 1.100.000 0,77% 0,71%
A380-800 66.000.000 220.000.000 520.000 1.800.000 0,79% 0,82%
B737-700 7.300.000 37.500.000 85.000 280.000 1,16% 0,75%
B737-800 10.000.000 47.000.000 115.000 325.000 1,15% 0,69%
B737-900ER 18.800.000 49.000.000 200.000 340.000 1,06% 0,69%
B747-400 3.300.000 9.600.000 90.000 180.000 2,73% 1,88%
B767-300ER 3.200.000 35.500.000 90.000 330.000 2,81% 0,93%
B777-200ER 12.000.000 44.000.000 200.000 350.000 1,67% 0,80%
B777-300ER 55.000.000 156.000.000 500.000 1.330.000 0,91% 0,85%
B787-8 70.000.000 124.000.000 625.000 980.000 0,89% 0,79%
B787-9 99.000.000 146.000.000 820.000 1.100.000 0,83% 0,75%
CRJ700 4.800.000 23.000.000 65.000 185.000 1,35% 0,80%
CRJ900 7.000.000 24.500.000 85.000 195.000 1,21% 0,80%
Q400 6.400.000 19.500.000 60.000 175.000 0,94% 0,90%
ENB175 9.500.000 28.000.000 120.000 225.000 1,26% 0,80%
EBM190 10.500.000 32.000.000 130.000 245.000 1,24% 0,77%
ATR-72 3.500.000 21.500.000 60.000 170.000 1,71% 0,79%


A330F 48.500.000 84.000.000 340.000 680.000 0,70% 0,81%
B744F 12.000.000 29.000.000 225.000 380.000 1,88% 1,31%
B748F 95.000.000 174.000.000 750.000 1.400.000 0,79% 0,80%
B763F 20.000.000 66.000.000 250.000 525.000 1,25% 0,80%


I was interested in the gross return, if looking at gross return of any investment, it tells you something with the risk the investors see in this. The higher the return, the higher the perceived risk. Of course, this is not very scientific but good for giving an idea.


:confused:

I don't get the 777 variants. I would think a brand new 77W would be a better investment than a 7/8 year old 772. Why is a brand new 77W viewed as slightly riskier?

EDIT: same for the last off the line 772 and 763. The latter at least is in demand as a freighter.

I would suspect most 772 are placed with big established carriers looking for some flexible fleet capacity whereas the mix of 77W carriers may be less ideal
 
Charters737
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:52 am

How about emb 195 ?

& b737-300s ?
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:18 pm

EMB195 – $12.2 – 34.0M, $135-255,000

B737-300 - $1.0 - 1.7M, $35-50,000 (scrap value basically)
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Charters737
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:49 pm

LAXintl wrote:
EMB195 – $12.2 – 34.0M, $135-255,000

B737-300 - $1.0 - 1.7M, $35-50,000 (scrap value basically)

Neeleman seems to be making a viable case for EMB195s. Admittedly he's getting a deal from Azul which think he's major shareholder/chairman.

G4 started with very old MD80s.

Must be a lot of B733s parked. Last one made in 1999 IIFC. How old were G4s MD80s ?

Some smaller airports can take B733s where they can't take B738s without restrictions.

You'd think there would be a good business case for a startup or an existing small airline to get some very cheap B733s & only run them like G4 did with their MD80s & Neeleman talking of doing with EMB195 - ie. fly 5 hours a day only & not everyday.
 
smartplane
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:06 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
Charters737 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
EMB195 – $12.2 – 34.0M, $135-255,000

B737-300 - $1.0 - 1.7M, $35-50,000 (scrap value basically)

Neeleman seems to be making a viable case for EMB195s. Admittedly he's getting a deal from Azul which think he's major shareholder/chairman.

G4 started with very old MD80s.

Must be a lot of B733s parked. Last one made in 1999 IIFC. How old were G4s MD80s ?

Some smaller airports can take B733s where they can't take B738s without restrictions.

You'd think there would be a good business case for a startup or an existing small airline to get some very cheap B733s & only run them like G4 did with their MD80s & Neeleman talking of doing with EMB195 - ie. fly 5 hours a day only & not everyday.

Both A & B partner at arms length with financiers offering greenfields funding, and engine OEM's will offer fixed price lifetime, or lease contract period maintenance on new, together with insurance.

Not new is less attractive than in the past. Fixed price cradle to crave funding and maintenance was non-existent for NB engines back in the day, OEM's price for obsolescence, and the options for MX have contracted compared to say 2000. Older aircraft are viable for very low use operators, and those with in-house MX and new/used parts accumulated and written off over many years, but for a new start....

Acquire new, unless an OEM will bundle identical used aircraft in tranches of say 10, but you would want promises on parts, MX, finance and insurance pricing and availability as part of the package
 
Charters737
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:53 pm

smartplane wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
Charters737 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
EMB195 – $12.2 – 34.0M, $135-255,000

B737-300 - $1.0 - 1.7M, $35-50,000 (scrap value basically)

Neeleman seems to be making a viable case for EMB195s. Admittedly he's getting a deal from Azul which think he's major shareholder/chairman.

G4 started with very old MD80s.

Must be a lot of B733s parked. Last one made in 1999 IIFC. How old were G4s MD80s ?

Some smaller airports can take B733s where they can't take B738s without restrictions.

You'd think there would be a good business case for a startup or an existing small airline to get some very cheap B733s & only run them like G4 did with their MD80s & Neeleman talking of doing with EMB195 - ie. fly 5 hours a day only & not everyday.

Both A & B partner at arms length with financiers offering greenfields funding, and engine OEM's will offer fixed price lifetime, or lease contract period maintenance on new, together with insurance.

Not new is less attractive than in the past. Fixed price cradle to crave funding and maintenance was non-existent for NB engines back in the day, OEM's price for obsolescence, and the options for MX have contracted compared to say 2000. Older aircraft are viable for very low use operators, and those with in-house MX and new/used parts accumulated and written off over many years, but for a new start....

Acquire new, unless an OEM will bundle identical used aircraft in tranches of say 10, but you would want promises on parts, MX, finance and insurance pricing and availability as part of the package
so in other words, Neeleman is getting the deal from hell from EMB to get some EMB195s back in the air.

Bit like the deal Hifly must be getting from airbus, perhaps to take on 10yo A380s to create a 2nd hand market for them.
 
smartplane
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:55 am

Charters737 wrote:
smartplane wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
Charters737 wrote:
Neeleman seems to be making a viable case for EMB195s. Admittedly he's getting a deal from Azul which think he's major shareholder/chairman.

G4 started with very old MD80s.

Must be a lot of B733s parked. Last one made in 1999 IIFC. How old were G4s MD80s ?

Some smaller airports can take B733s where they can't take B738s without restrictions.

You'd think there would be a good business case for a startup or an existing small airline to get some very cheap B733s & only run them like G4 did with their MD80s & Neeleman talking of doing with EMB195 - ie. fly 5 hours a day only & not everyday.

Both A & B partner at arms length with financiers offering greenfields funding, and engine OEM's will offer fixed price lifetime, or lease contract period maintenance on new, together with insurance.

Not new is less attractive than in the past. Fixed price cradle to crave funding and maintenance was non-existent for NB engines back in the day, OEM's price for obsolescence, and the options for MX have contracted compared to say 2000. Older aircraft are viable for very low use operators, and those with in-house MX and new/used parts accumulated and written off over many years, but for a new start....

Acquire new, unless an OEM will bundle identical used aircraft in tranches of say 10, but you would want promises on parts, MX, finance and insurance pricing and availability as part of the package

so in other words, Neeleman is getting the deal from hell from EMB to get some EMB195s back in the air.

Bit like the deal Hifly must be getting from airbus, perhaps to take on 10yo A380s to create a 2nd hand market for them.

Commercial aircraft don't appreciate over time, so if EMB is the beneficial owner, they have a choice. Earn revenue, providing this doesn't detract from the opportunity / likelihood of selling new to Neeleman, sell or lease to someone else, part or walk away.

There may be a fixed price offer on the table, covering the air frame, engine, training, insurance, and a proportion or all of the finance, plus a buyback. OEM's sometimes even package retrospective credits on used sales, to encourage future acquisition of additional used or new aircraft.

Or this could be EMB's toe in the water for a HiFly style deal - power by the hour for air frame and engines.

Interesting to see whatever form such a deal takes, the role taken by GE, if any.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:20 am

Charters737 wrote:
so in other words, Neeleman is getting the deal from hell from EMB to get some EMB195s back in the air.

Bit like the deal Hifly must be getting from airbus, perhaps to take on 10yo A380s to create a 2nd hand market for them.


Per reports, the aircraft have nothing to do with Embraer, but instead are leased directly from Azul where Neeleman has a 2/3 stake as newer 195E2 aircraft arrive. Azul is similarly leasing E195 frames to TAP and LOT. Basically its a way for Azul to earn money on assets it no longer requires.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
Charters737
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:27 am

janders wrote:
Charters737 wrote:
so in other words, Neeleman is getting the deal from hell from EMB to get some EMB195s back in the air.

Bit like the deal Hifly must be getting from airbus, perhaps to take on 10yo A380s to create a 2nd hand market for them.


Per reports, the aircraft have nothing to do with Embraer, but instead are leased directly from Azul where Neeleman has a 2/3 stake as newer 195E2 aircraft arrive. Azul is similarly leasing E195 frames to TAP and LOT. Basically its a way for Azul to earn money on assets it no longer requires.

EMB maybe involved in maintenance contracts !!!!!!

Neeleman born in Brazil. Azul Brazilian. EMB Briazilian.
 
flybaby
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:14 pm

Charters737 wrote:
...
Must be a lot of B733s parked. Last one made in 1999 IIFC. How old were G4s MD80s ?
....


Not sure how old the MD-80s were when they were acquired but the average MD-80 fleet age around the time G4 was getting rid of them was about 30 years old.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:47 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
OMG thank you for this data. Love it.

How can this line be right? I thought used A380s were scrap value.
A380-800 - $66.0 - 220.0M, $520-1,80,000

I assume 'transactions' include behind-the-scenes transactions like sale-and-leaseback or transferring ownership of leased A380s. So while their value on the used market for other carriers is low, they might not be all that worthless for an airline that already operates them.
 
A388
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:24 pm

LAXintl, as always thank you very much for these valuations. I always read them with much interest :yes: :yes: :yes: :yes:

A388
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:51 pm

In past threads, the MD82 was Always the bargain plane. What are the current valuations? :)
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:38 pm

You can probably get an MD-80 for free if you are willing to cover the storage fee.

On paper, an MD-82 value is $350-700,000, but likely fetch less if you really wanted to acquire one.
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:55 pm

Reported in French media that Amedeo sold 2 A380s c/n 233 and 237 for US $169mil total proceeds. So at ~$85mil a piece that would be at the low end of the valuation as posted by LAXIntl.
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andrej
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:50 am

Hello and thanks for another great update.
Question regarding the B777-300ER. There is no change compared to 2019 data (viewtopic.php?t=1422705). However, I know that some planes rented as low as US$ 380k per month (older; 10-12Y frame).

Also, there was an interesting chart showing more reasonable rates for 10Y frame about US$ 400k per month (https://twitter.com/IBAaviation/status/ ... 3213812737).
Is it possible that the source refuses to lower rent costs (and some other renters are under pressure/accept lower rates)?

Thanks!
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:15 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Since I received many requests, here is an update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.

Any valuation on A330neo, or insufficient data?
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:27 am

No shock, but the Covid-19 crisis is beating up aircraft values and portfolios that utilize such assets.

Got an Airplane In Your Portfolio? Get Ready for a Long Descent
https://www.wsj.com/articles/got-an-air ... 1586165703

=
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:57 am

First thank you for these threads. I always enjoy comparing the gain/loss dependent on demand for a type.

LAXintl wrote:
No shock, but the Covid-19 crisis is beating up aircraft values and portfolios that utilize such assets.

Got an Airplane In Your Portfolio? Get Ready for a Long Descent
https://www.wsj.com/articles/got-an-air ... 1586165703

=

The free fall has started. Many a type viable for airlines to acquire, for airlines will have a better selection. Who will acquire? First the market must reset with marginal aircraft being ignored.

Aircraft with few opperators will have it the hardest.

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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:36 am

Do you have the current value for ERJ145s?
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:09 am

I'm curious about the non-moving A319NEO. Figure Airbus must be trying to give them away! Also the 321NEOs plz
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:59 pm

Here is a view of how things are looking in the short term dring Covid-19 crisis per Cirum.

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWNv2N7WsAA ... name=small

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWNwXSzX0AA ... name=small
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mercure1
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:12 pm

Thank you for update. These are turbulent times so will be interesting to see which models end up OK and which ones are big losers.
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:09 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Here is a view of how things are looking in the short term dring Covid-19 crisis per Cirum.

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWNv2N7WsAA ... name=small

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWNwXSzX0AA ... name=small


The spread between offer and demand is too big so there are little transacrions taking place.

Buyers want 75% discount, aircraft owners are only willing to discount up to 25%.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:28 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Here is a view of how things are looking in the short term dring Covid-19 crisis per Cirum.

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWNv2N7WsAA ... name=small

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWNwXSzX0AA ... name=small

Do you have one for freight?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Sun May 03, 2020 2:06 am

LAXintl wrote:
Here is a view of how things are looking in the short term dring Covid-19 crisis per Cirum.

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWNv2N7WsAA ... name=small

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWNwXSzX0AA ... name=small

I did not expect A319-100 values to drop that much. That implies scrap prices have dropped too. Rhoo Rhoo.

The E-jets seem to have issues too. Oh, this will be ugly.

Please do a summer update after the return to service.

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