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alasizon
Posts: 2598
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:57 pm

AirFiero wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
questions wrote:

I have said this before on other threads. DL’s international network strategy is different that UA’s and AA’s.

However, SEA-BLR is a good example as to whether DL missed a “select markets” opportunity. Certainly DL is smart in analyzing future route potential and profitability.

The questions are:
Did DL underestimate SEA-BLR O&D nonstop demand?
Does AS’s feed into SEA make a case for SEA-BLR that DL would never have?
Is DL sitting back shaking their heads knowing this will not work for AA?
Are there other SEA to non-partner hubs (SkyTeam or oneworld) that are underserved nonstop?

If DL believes there is money to be made with a nonstop flight and/or overall market share in SEA will be at risk by not offering nonstop flights their customers (corporate and premium) want, DL will have a competitive response.
It is very simple DL does not have the planes for SEA-BLR. The 77Ls are all accounted for and that is the only machine DL has that could make the flight. DL is going to use JFK for their India flights, which is fine. NYC will get BLR eventually be it UA or DL.

AA did not have enough feed to make NYC work for them, so SEA and the west coast is where they threw their hat in for India, which makes a lot of sense for them.


I’ve seen folks here say the A350 can’t fly SEA-BLR, but the 787s can. My understanding is the A350 is Airbus’s answer to the
787? Is the 787 that much more capable, or for Airbuses sake they built a plane that was supposed to compete but didn’t?


Its not that the 350 can't, it's DL's 350s can't. They opted for a lower MTOW (and subsequently less range)

MAH4546 wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
And it is hardly a guess. 25% is what AS elites flying AA internationally currently earn.
Mileage Plan does not earn EQM today on AA, so I am not sure what you are on about that.

I have a bridge to sell you if you think AS is not going to have a favorable chart for AA when it comes to EQM/Bonus Miles/etc...


Mileage plan earns miles today on international flights. When EQM is added, like other partners, the rate will be the same as base miles. You are dead wrong in thinking they are going to be “favorable.” It’ll be 25% as it already is.

https://www.alaskaair.com/content/milea ... verview:AA

I suspect SEA originating AA INTL flights will have a bump to make them more favorable for AS flyers since it is pretty much all AS providing the feed.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26220
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:11 pm

alasizon wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
It is very simple DL does not have the planes for SEA-BLR. The 77Ls are all accounted for and that is the only machine DL has that could make the flight. DL is going to use JFK for their India flights, which is fine. NYC will get BLR eventually be it UA or DL.

AA did not have enough feed to make NYC work for them, so SEA and the west coast is where they threw their hat in for India, which makes a lot of sense for them.


I’ve seen folks here say the A350 can’t fly SEA-BLR, but the 787s can. My understanding is the A350 is Airbus’s answer to the
787? Is the 787 that much more capable, or for Airbuses sake they built a plane that was supposed to compete but didn’t?


Its not that the 350 can't, it's DL's 350s can't. They opted for a lower MTOW (and subsequently less range)

MAH4546 wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
Mileage Plan does not earn EQM today on AA, so I am not sure what you are on about that.

I have a bridge to sell you if you think AS is not going to have a favorable chart for AA when it comes to EQM/Bonus Miles/etc...


Mileage plan earns miles today on international flights. When EQM is added, like other partners, the rate will be the same as base miles. You are dead wrong in thinking they are going to be “favorable.” It’ll be 25% as it already is.

https://www.alaskaair.com/content/milea ... verview:AA

I suspect SEA originating AA INTL flights will have a bump to make them more favorable for AS flyers since it is pretty much all AS providing the feed.


No way. That’ll complicate things. However, AA and AS are going to codeshare, and when you book it with the AS* code, then it earns as if it were an AS-operates flight in terms of EQM, bonuses, etc. That is what will make rates more favorable.
a.
 
SEAflyer97
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed May 09, 2018 9:10 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:37 pm

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
AS ranks will not swell. It doesn’t make sense. People who fly AA want the AA elite benefits that are not transferable to AS, specifically upgrades.
It will be easier for many people to reach Oneworld Emerald/Saphire on Alaska than AA. There are many conditions of infrequent flyers that buy cheap J/W flights on AA than would earn many times more towards making Oneworld E/S on AS than AA.

What AA Platinum or Gold is getting upgrades, the benefits would be the same for an Alaska Oneworld Emerald/Saphire.

MAH4546 wrote:
And AA flights in lower buckets will likely only earn 25% EQM.
So a guess.

If you fly cheap J/W tickets, BA is a good program for you to earn OW status. Also, that would not be a guess. Cheap AA Y already earns 25% in low brackets. https://www.alaskaair.com/content/milea ... verview:AA
Last edited by SEAflyer97 on Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
phxsanslcpdx
Posts: 82
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:36 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:40 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
No way. That’ll complicate things. However, AA and AS are going to codeshare, and when you book it with the AS* code, then it earns as if it were an AS-operates flight in terms of EQM, bonuses, etc. That is what will make rates more favorable.

The terms of the settlement in USA vs. Alaska & Virgin America(https://www.justice.gov/atr/case-document/file/915971/download) prohibit Alaska from marketing AA flights to/from Seattle. So the BLR and LHR flights won't have codeshare and can't be purchased directly through Alaska (though the flights purchased through AA or BA can still earn through whatever the reciprocity agreement is).
 
YouGeeElWhy
Posts: 491
Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 3:42 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:06 pm

SEAflyer97 wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
AS ranks will not swell. It doesn’t make sense. People who fly AA want the AA elite benefits that are not transferable to AS, specifically upgrades.
It will be easier for many people to reach Oneworld Emerald/Saphire on Alaska than AA. There are many conditions of infrequent flyers that buy cheap J/W flights on AA than would earn many times more towards making Oneworld E/S on AS than AA.

What AA Platinum or Gold is getting upgrades, the benefits would be the same for an Alaska Oneworld Emerald/Saphire.

MAH4546 wrote:
And AA flights in lower buckets will likely only earn 25% EQM.
So a guess.

If you fly cheap J/W tickets, BA is a good program for you to earn OW status. Also, that would not be a guess. Cheap AA Y already earns 25% in low brackets. https://www.alaskaair.com/content/milea ... verview:AA
no, BA is not a good option for the infrequent J/W AA flyer. You need 4 segments which would be tough to get for most.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26220
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:09 pm

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
No way. That’ll complicate things. However, AA and AS are going to codeshare, and when you book it with the AS* code, then it earns as if it were an AS-operates flight in terms of EQM, bonuses, etc. That is what will make rates more favorable.

The terms of the settlement in USA vs. Alaska & Virgin America(https://www.justice.gov/atr/case-document/file/915971/download) prohibit Alaska from marketing AA flights to/from Seattle. So the BLR and LHR flights won't have codeshare and can't be purchased directly through Alaska (though the flights purchased through AA or BA can still earn through whatever the reciprocity agreement is).


These aren't permanent. AA and AS will apply to reverse. Given current market climates, not unreasonable to think these will be changed.
a.
 
SEAflyer97
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed May 09, 2018 9:10 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:32 pm

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
SEAflyer97 wrote:
YouGeeElWhy wrote:
It will be easier for many people to reach Oneworld Emerald/Saphire on Alaska than AA. There are many conditions of infrequent flyers that buy cheap J/W flights on AA than would earn many times more towards making Oneworld E/S on AS than AA.

What AA Platinum or Gold is getting upgrades, the benefits would be the same for an Alaska Oneworld Emerald/Saphire.

So a guess.

If you fly cheap J/W tickets, BA is a good program for you to earn OW status. Also, that would not be a guess. Cheap AA Y already earns 25% in low brackets. https://www.alaskaair.com/content/milea ... verview:AA
no, BA is not a good option for the infrequent J/W AA flyer. You need 4 segments which would be tough to get for most.

Hmm sorry I missed that you were talking about AA flyers. Let's do the math.

On AS for OWE it requires 90000 EQM(tbh I could see that goes up to 110,000). Let's just say you buy cheap J/W tickets(100% on P, 150% on D, I, R) on JFK-LHR(3451 miles). You need 26 segments in W or 17.4(let's round this up to 18) segments in J. EQD for Executive Platinum is $15,000 so average W ticket has to be lower than $577 and average J ticket has to be lower than $833. To be honest, both of which seems unlikely.

For OWS, you need 50000 EQM or $6000 EQD on AA. You need 15 segments in W or 10 segments in J. That means your average W ticket has to be lower than $400 or average J ticket lower than $600. I could never find tickets that cheap(also you need to find these ticket for at least 5 RTs). Keep in mind cheap upgrades does not count -- upgrades earn miles based on your booking fare class.

Not gonna do that math for OWR. If you are flying W/J you don't need OWR anyway.

We can see it's not necessarily easier to get status if you solely fly AA. It would be much easier if you fly AS -- that's essentially what AS wants. Also, you lose all AA benefits except OW elite benefits.
Last edited by SEAflyer97 on Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
onwFan
Posts: 437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:35 pm

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
No way. That’ll complicate things. However, AA and AS are going to codeshare, and when you book it with the AS* code, then it earns as if it were an AS-operates flight in terms of EQM, bonuses, etc. That is what will make rates more favorable.

The terms of the settlement in USA vs. Alaska & Virgin America(https://www.justice.gov/atr/case-document/file/915971/download) prohibit Alaska from marketing AA flights to/from Seattle. So the BLR and LHR flights won't have codeshare and can't be purchased directly through Alaska (though the flights purchased through AA or BA can still earn through whatever the reciprocity agreement is).

That definitely applied to the domestic context on flights operated by one airline into the other’s hubs. AA did not fly any international routes out of SEA and there is no reason to prohibit codesharing on an Asia route even if there are restrictions on other domestic flights.
 
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enilria
Posts: 10252
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: AA to make SEA an INT hub/launches SEA-BLR in Oct 20/AS to join OneWorld

Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:50 pm

flybynight wrote:
enilria wrote:
runway23 wrote:
AA to make SEA an INT hub/launches SEA-BLR in Oct 20/AS to join OneWorld

Adding two flights does not make SEA a hub. It was already an AS hub. We will see if they add more.


And even if AA wanted a hub in Seattle, I don't think SEA has the capacity to add a third airline as a hub.

Seems to me, if an airline wants a hub in the PNW they should look at PDX.
Frankly I think it is much more pleasant airport (granted, we'll have to see what SEA looks like after the N-terminal and the international terminal are upgraded and completed).

The demographics aren't there for the same reason DEN has three hub carriers and SLC has one.
 
durangomac
Posts: 446
Joined: Fri Dec 08, 2006 5:18 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:56 pm

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
No way. That’ll complicate things. However, AA and AS are going to codeshare, and when you book it with the AS* code, then it earns as if it were an AS-operates flight in terms of EQM, bonuses, etc. That is what will make rates more favorable.

The terms of the settlement in USA vs. Alaska & Virgin America(https://www.justice.gov/atr/case-document/file/915971/download) prohibit Alaska from marketing AA flights to/from Seattle. So the BLR and LHR flights won't have codeshare and can't be purchased directly through Alaska (though the flights purchased through AA or BA can still earn through whatever the reciprocity agreement is).


Wouldn't it be argued that the current codeshare agreement is being terminated and a new agreement in the context of oneworld is being created? If the old codeshare agreement is terminated wouldn't that make the court ruling void as the agreement it was referencing is no longer in valid?
 
phxsanslcpdx
Posts: 82
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:36 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:19 pm

durangomac wrote:
phxsanslcpdx wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
No way. That’ll complicate things. However, AA and AS are going to codeshare, and when you book it with the AS* code, then it earns as if it were an AS-operates flight in terms of EQM, bonuses, etc. That is what will make rates more favorable.

The terms of the settlement in USA vs. Alaska & Virgin America(https://www.justice.gov/atr/case-document/file/915971/download) prohibit Alaska from marketing AA flights to/from Seattle. So the BLR and LHR flights won't have codeshare and can't be purchased directly through Alaska (though the flights purchased through AA or BA can still earn through whatever the reciprocity agreement is).


Wouldn't it be argued that the current codeshare agreement is being terminated and a new agreement in the context of oneworld is being created? If the old codeshare agreement is terminated wouldn't that make the court ruling void as the agreement it was referencing is no longer in valid?

The agreement says "Defendants shall not directly or indirectly, under the Alaska/American Codeshare Agreement or otherwise... market any American Flight that originates or terminates at any Key Alaska Airport...." SEA, unsurprisingly, is defined as one of those Key Alaska Airports. Lawyers might see some loophole there, but I don't, and it seems overly risky to try to sneak it through and then argue in court. Much better, as MAH4546 suggests, to apply to have the agreement modified/voided. And I'd give such a request a better-than-even chance of success, but I don't think it's a sure thing. And such a request would likely take some time.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 608
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:50 pm

questions wrote:
OA412 wrote:
I think the point that people are missing is that outside a few select markets, DL has decided that ULH flying is not in the companies best interest. UA, and to a lesser extent AA, have decided otherwise. Time will tell who is correct, but ULH flights are very costly to operate and it really only makes sense when you have large hubs in major cities like UA does.


I have said this before on other threads. DL’s international network strategy is different that UA’s and AA’s.

However, SEA-BLR is a good example as to whether DL missed a “select markets” opportunity. Certainly DL is smart in analyzing future route potential and profitability.

The questions are:
Did DL underestimate SEA-BLR O&D nonstop demand?
Does AS’s feed into SEA make a case for SEA-BLR that DL would never have?
Is DL sitting back shaking their heads knowing this will not work for AA?
Are there other SEA to non-partner hubs (SkyTeam or oneworld) that are underserved nonstop?

If DL believes there is money to be made with a nonstop flight and/or overall market share in SEA will be at risk by not offering nonstop flights their customers (corporate and premium) want, DL will have a competitive response.



Delta has been very patient as a new international arrival facility has met some delay. They are on record saying that they do not want to expand overseas until the facility is done so that passengers would not have to endure the less than ideal conditions. The delay upon delay perhaps bought them some time to get their arsenal together. Now, out of nowhere, Alaska attacks, uses American to help pay for the IAF, figures it's better to make friends and not frenemies and creates a deal that takes full advantage of a constrained airport. Doesn't sound good for PR intending to stifle competition like that against Delta. (Just playing devil's advocate, but I wouldn't dismiss fully 100% of anything I said). In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Delta is trying to figure how they can get more gate space as a condition for this to get approved.
 
SEAflyer97
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed May 09, 2018 9:10 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:39 am

TYWoolman wrote:
questions wrote:
OA412 wrote:
I think the point that people are missing is that outside a few select markets, DL has decided that ULH flying is not in the companies best interest. UA, and to a lesser extent AA, have decided otherwise. Time will tell who is correct, but ULH flights are very costly to operate and it really only makes sense when you have large hubs in major cities like UA does.


I have said this before on other threads. DL’s international network strategy is different that UA’s and AA’s.

However, SEA-BLR is a good example as to whether DL missed a “select markets” opportunity. Certainly DL is smart in analyzing future route potential and profitability.

The questions are:
Did DL underestimate SEA-BLR O&D nonstop demand?
Does AS’s feed into SEA make a case for SEA-BLR that DL would never have?
Is DL sitting back shaking their heads knowing this will not work for AA?
Are there other SEA to non-partner hubs (SkyTeam or oneworld) that are underserved nonstop?

If DL believes there is money to be made with a nonstop flight and/or overall market share in SEA will be at risk by not offering nonstop flights their customers (corporate and premium) want, DL will have a competitive response.



Delta has been very patient as a new international arrival facility has met some delay. They are on record saying that they do not want to expand overseas until the facility is done so that passengers would not have to endure the less than ideal conditions. The delay upon delay perhaps bought them some time to get their arsenal together. Now, out of nowhere, Alaska attacks, uses American to help pay for the IAF, figures it's better to make friends and not frenemies and creates a deal that takes full advantage of a constrained airport. Doesn't sound good for PR intending to stifle competition like that against Delta. (Just playing devil's advocate, but I wouldn't dismiss fully 100% of anything I said). In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Delta is trying to figure how they can get more gate space as a condition for this to get approved.

Oh yeah here we go again. DL didn't add more flights because they didn't want to, not because of gate restrictions. Last year alone SEA added flights to HKG on CX, SIN on SQ, and NRT on JL.
 
SEAflyer97
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed May 09, 2018 9:10 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 12:40 am

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
durangomac wrote:
phxsanslcpdx wrote:
The terms of the settlement in USA vs. Alaska & Virgin America(https://www.justice.gov/atr/case-document/file/915971/download) prohibit Alaska from marketing AA flights to/from Seattle. So the BLR and LHR flights won't have codeshare and can't be purchased directly through Alaska (though the flights purchased through AA or BA can still earn through whatever the reciprocity agreement is).


Wouldn't it be argued that the current codeshare agreement is being terminated and a new agreement in the context of oneworld is being created? If the old codeshare agreement is terminated wouldn't that make the court ruling void as the agreement it was referencing is no longer in valid?

The agreement says "Defendants shall not directly or indirectly, under the Alaska/American Codeshare Agreement or otherwise... market any American Flight that originates or terminates at any Key Alaska Airport...." SEA, unsurprisingly, is defined as one of those Key Alaska Airports. Lawyers might see some loophole there, but I don't, and it seems overly risky to try to sneak it through and then argue in court. Much better, as MAH4546 suggests, to apply to have the agreement modified/voided. And I'd give such a request a better-than-even chance of success, but I don't think it's a sure thing. And such a request would likely take some time.

I bet they definitely found loopholes... in the announcment it says AS will start codesharing AA intl flights out of SEA and LAX.
 
9w748capt
Posts: 1756
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:27 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:38 am

SEAflyer97 wrote:
phxsanslcpdx wrote:
durangomac wrote:

Wouldn't it be argued that the current codeshare agreement is being terminated and a new agreement in the context of oneworld is being created? If the old codeshare agreement is terminated wouldn't that make the court ruling void as the agreement it was referencing is no longer in valid?

The agreement says "Defendants shall not directly or indirectly, under the Alaska/American Codeshare Agreement or otherwise... market any American Flight that originates or terminates at any Key Alaska Airport...." SEA, unsurprisingly, is defined as one of those Key Alaska Airports. Lawyers might see some loophole there, but I don't, and it seems overly risky to try to sneak it through and then argue in court. Much better, as MAH4546 suggests, to apply to have the agreement modified/voided. And I'd give such a request a better-than-even chance of success, but I don't think it's a sure thing. And such a request would likely take some time.

I bet they definitely found loopholes... in the announcment it says AS will start codesharing AA intl flights out of SEA and LAX.


I was gonna say. Without AS being able to codeshare on the AA intl flights out of SEA, what would be the point? That makes zero sense to announce a huge tie-up and AS entry into oneworld if they wouldn't be able to codeshare with AA.
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 816
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:39 am

This may have been already asked, but what is the purpose of AA doing SEA-LHR on their own metal when BA flies the route already?
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26220
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:43 am

BNAMealer wrote:
This may have been already asked, but what is the purpose of AA doing SEA-LHR on their own metal when BA flies the route already?


Branding. And AA/AS will probably be adding an international codeshare agreement in place, and the AS code can go on this one.

I fully suspect this will replace BA's second frequency, not add to it. But we'll see.
a.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 5007
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:39 am

American Airlines president says pact with Alaska isn't precursor to acquisition
http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2020/02/19/american-airlines-alaska-airlines-pact.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

American President Robert Isom told the Business Journal that isn't in the cards, adding the pact aims to win both airlines more customers.

"We've just gone through the world's largest commercial airline integration, bringing American Airlines and US Airways together (2013 deal)," Isom said. "I'm not really excited about going and trying to acquire anything right now. So, definitively no."

Alaska Airlines President Ben Minicucci denied the airline's closer partnership with American is akin to a prenuptial agreement, emphasizing that new international departures from Seattle will grow its business for the next five to 10 years and secure its independence in a consolidating airline world, allowing it to better compete against bigger rivals United and Delta.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
onwFan
Posts: 437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:06 am

9w748capt wrote:
SEAflyer97 wrote:
phxsanslcpdx wrote:
The agreement says "Defendants shall not directly or indirectly, under the Alaska/American Codeshare Agreement or otherwise... market any American Flight that originates or terminates at any Key Alaska Airport...." SEA, unsurprisingly, is defined as one of those Key Alaska Airports. Lawyers might see some loophole there, but I don't, and it seems overly risky to try to sneak it through and then argue in court. Much better, as MAH4546 suggests, to apply to have the agreement modified/voided. And I'd give such a request a better-than-even chance of success, but I don't think it's a sure thing. And such a request would likely take some time.

I bet they definitely found loopholes... in the announcment it says AS will start codesharing AA intl flights out of SEA and LAX.


I was gonna say. Without AS being able to codeshare on the AA intl flights out of SEA, what would be the point? That makes zero sense to announce a huge tie-up and AS entry into oneworld if they wouldn't be able to codeshare with AA.


True - After all, this alliance is going to prevent Seattle from being a single airline’s hub internationally to possibly two airlines’. Essentially they are introducing competition in Seattle and bringing new international routes which would not have happened without this partnership. So not sure why DOT should object to them codesharing on international + domestic connecting feed.
 
questions
Posts: 2337
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:32 am

SEAflyer97 wrote:
DL didn't add more flights because they didn't want to, not because of gate restrictions. Last year alone SEA added flights to HKG on CX, SIN on SQ, and NRT on JL.


Interesting. CX, SQ and JL didn’t care about the international arrivals experience but DL did? What’s the real reason DL hasn’t added more flights?
 
questions
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Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:38 am

TYWoolman wrote:
Now, out of nowhere, Alaska attacks, uses American to help pay for the IAF, figures it's better to make friends and not frenemies and creates a deal that takes full advantage of a constrained airport.


Please provide more context. This sounds like the delayed IAF is due to Alaska not providing funding and now AA will make up for the gap.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 608
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:40 pm

questions wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
Now, out of nowhere, Alaska attacks, uses American to help pay for the IAF, figures it's better to make friends and not frenemies and creates a deal that takes full advantage of a constrained airport.


Please provide more context. This sounds like the delayed IAF is due to Alaska not providing funding and now AA will make up for the gap.


Not a delay per se in the construction or approval to my knowledge. But delay for what its worth in disagreeing that they should be subject to any cost of IAF since they will not make use of the facilty. Pretty sure the requirement was for all airlines to help pay for it. Alaska didn't like that idea because it would have meant shelling out for Delta's benefit. American will now share in the cost, mitigating the expenditure out of Alaska's pocket.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 608
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:59 pm

onwFan wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
SEAflyer97 wrote:
I bet they definitely found loopholes... in the announcment it says AS will start codesharing AA intl flights out of SEA and LAX.


I was gonna say. Without AS being able to codeshare on the AA intl flights out of SEA, what would be the point? That makes zero sense to announce a huge tie-up and AS entry into oneworld if they wouldn't be able to codeshare with AA.


True - After all, this alliance is going to prevent Seattle from being a single airline’s hub internationally to possibly two airlines’. Essentially they are introducing competition in Seattle and bringing new international routes which would not have happened without this partnership. So not sure why DOT should object to them codesharing on international + domestic connecting feed.


Seattle is already a two airline hub with competition. In a constrained airport hub, introducing another carrier into the fold doesn't necessarily support the argument that international service will be better for it. Delta is more than capable and has invested an enormous amount of goodwill in the community. They are vested there. And a buffet of new international service is available already. If the alliance is deemed to squeeze Delta out, then how does that enhance competition? Delta can use that card to negotiate with Seattle/regulators/Alaska/American and propose conditions on the alliance, which is in order. I don't see any loopholes in that wording. The alliance would have to be based on a new argument. Delta, then, will not sit silent.
 
LAXBUR
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:17 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
onwFan wrote:
9w748capt wrote:

I was gonna say. Without AS being able to codeshare on the AA intl flights out of SEA, what would be the point? That makes zero sense to announce a huge tie-up and AS entry into oneworld if they wouldn't be able to codeshare with AA.


True - After all, this alliance is going to prevent Seattle from being a single airline’s hub internationally to possibly two airlines’. Essentially they are introducing competition in Seattle and bringing new international routes which would not have happened without this partnership. So not sure why DOT should object to them codesharing on international + domestic connecting feed.


Seattle is already a two airline hub with competition. In a constrained airport hub, introducing another carrier into the fold doesn't necessarily support the argument that international service will be better for it. Delta is more than capable and has invested an enormous amount of goodwill in the community. They are vested there. And a buffet of new international service is available already. If the alliance is deemed to squeeze Delta out, then how does that enhance competition? Delta can use that card to negotiate with Seattle/regulators/Alaska/American and propose conditions on the alliance, which is in order. I don't see any loopholes in that wording. The alliance would have to be based on a new argument. Delta, then, will not sit silent.


Interesting argument. Competition is anti-competitive. Ha. Seriously, you have overtaken this thread with your nonsensical rants.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:32 pm

LAXBUR wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
onwFan wrote:

True - After all, this alliance is going to prevent Seattle from being a single airline’s hub internationally to possibly two airlines’. Essentially they are introducing competition in Seattle and bringing new international routes which would not have happened without this partnership. So not sure why DOT should object to them codesharing on international + domestic connecting feed.


Seattle is already a two airline hub with competition. In a constrained airport hub, introducing another carrier into the fold doesn't necessarily support the argument that international service will be better for it. Delta is more than capable and has invested an enormous amount of goodwill in the community. They are vested there. And a buffet of new international service is available already. If the alliance is deemed to squeeze Delta out, then how does that enhance competition? Delta can use that card to negotiate with Seattle/regulators/Alaska/American and propose conditions on the alliance, which is in order. I don't see any loopholes in that wording. The alliance would have to be based on a new argument. Delta, then, will not sit silent.


Interesting argument. Competition is anti-competitive. Ha. Seriously, you have overtaken this thread with your nonsensical rants.


When the city has no viable plans to expand the footprint of the airport, there comes a time when an airline's quest to become larger by way of an alliance in an ever-shrinking industry deserves some pause. Would added "competition" result in a dominant Alaska-American without a viable strong #2 after Delta retreats? A case can be made out of anything is my point, much like the credit you have given me that I tookover this thread.
 
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spinotter
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:47 pm

SEAflyer97 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
questions wrote:

I have said this before on other threads. DL’s international network strategy is different that UA’s and AA’s.

However, SEA-BLR is a good example as to whether DL missed a “select markets” opportunity. Certainly DL is smart in analyzing future route potential and profitability.

The questions are:
Did DL underestimate SEA-BLR O&D nonstop demand?
Does AS’s feed into SEA make a case for SEA-BLR that DL would never have?
Is DL sitting back shaking their heads knowing this will not work for AA?
Are there other SEA to non-partner hubs (SkyTeam or oneworld) that are underserved nonstop?

If DL believes there is money to be made with a nonstop flight and/or overall market share in SEA will be at risk by not offering nonstop flights their customers (corporate and premium) want, DL will have a competitive response.




Delta has been very patient as a new international arrival facility has met some delay. They are on record saying that they do not want to expand overseas until the facility is done so that passengers would not have to endure the less than ideal conditions. The delay upon delay perhaps bought them some time to get their arsenal together. Now, out of nowhere, Alaska attacks, uses American to help pay for the IAF, figures it's better to make friends and not frenemies and creates a deal that takes full advantage of a constrained airport. Doesn't sound good for PR intending to stifle competition like that against Delta. (Just playing devil's advocate, but I wouldn't dismiss fully 100% of anything I said). In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Delta is trying to figure how they can get more gate space as a condition for this to get approved.

Oh yeah here we go again. DL didn't add more flights because they didn't want to, not because of gate restrictions. Last year alone SEA added flights to HKG on CX, SIN on SQ, and NRT on JL.


Delta has been offering five East Asia flights per day, approximately. Now that PVG and PEK/PKX are in abeyance, have conditions for SEA travelers improved to any degree?
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:59 pm

To my understanding, Delta did not want to bottle-neck its own passengers at an antiquated IAF. That is their "reason" for no new international flights, but, of course, who knows the real reason: KE alliance? Not right aircraft? Second-thoughts on the Seattle hub, no real vision for Seattle infrastructure expansion?
Last edited by TYWoolman on Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
onwFan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:02 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:

Seattle is already a two airline hub with competition. In a constrained airport hub, introducing another carrier into the fold doesn't necessarily support the argument that international service will be better for it. Delta is more than capable and has invested an enormous amount of goodwill in the community. They are vested there. And a buffet of new international service is available already. If the alliance is deemed to squeeze Delta out, then how does that enhance competition? Delta can use that card to negotiate with Seattle/regulators/Alaska/American and propose conditions on the alliance, which is in order. I don't see any loopholes in that wording. The alliance would have to be based on a new argument. Delta, then, will not sit silent.


Interesting argument. Competition is anti-competitive. Ha. Seriously, you have overtaken this thread with your nonsensical rants.


When the city has no viable plans to expand the footprint of the airport, there comes a time when an airline's quest to become larger by way of an alliance in an ever-shrinking industry deserves some pause. Would added "competition" result in a dominant Alaska-American without a viable strong #2 after Delta retreats? A case can be made out of anything is my point, much like the credit you have given me that I tookover this thread.


Lol. Are saying that a competitor should not be allowed to enter a market because the current player may lose its presence? That is basically what is called anti-competition
 
LAXBUR
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:12 pm

onwFan wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:

Interesting argument. Competition is anti-competitive. Ha. Seriously, you have overtaken this thread with your nonsensical rants.


When the city has no viable plans to expand the footprint of the airport, there comes a time when an airline's quest to become larger by way of an alliance in an ever-shrinking industry deserves some pause. Would added "competition" result in a dominant Alaska-American without a viable strong #2 after Delta retreats? A case can be made out of anything is my point, much like the credit you have given me that I tookover this thread.


Lol. Are saying that a competitor should not be allowed to enter a market because the current player may lose its presence? That is basically what is called anti-competition


And they keep running with it...
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:14 pm

onwFan wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:

Interesting argument. Competition is anti-competitive. Ha. Seriously, you have overtaken this thread with your nonsensical rants.


When the city has no viable plans to expand the footprint of the airport, there comes a time when an airline's quest to become larger by way of an alliance in an ever-shrinking industry deserves some pause. Would added "competition" result in a dominant Alaska-American without a viable strong #2 after Delta retreats? A case can be made out of anything is my point, much like the credit you have given me that I tookover this thread.


Lol. Are saying that a competitor should not be allowed to enter a market because the current player may lose its presence? That is basically what is called anti-competition


No, competition is good. BUT if Alaska-American will be using such an "added-competition" argument to get the alliance approved (which is naturally anticipated to INCREASE traffic), the fact that this is being done in an infrastructure-CONSTRAINED airport gives Delta (and others) a valid ARGUMENT that they need more of the current infrastructure to keep competition relevant and meaningful, as the unintended (or intended) ramifications of the alliance can arguably render any competiting sizeable operation void.
 
onwFan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:16 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
To my understanding, Delta did not want to bottle-neck its own passengers at an antiquated IAF. That is their "reason" for no new international flights, but, of course, who knows the real reason: KE alliance? Not right aircraft? Second-thoughts on the Seattle hub, no real vision for Seattle infrastructure expansion?


There is no reason for SEA to sit and wait for DL to expand at their own pace when there are other carriers that want to fly to destinations that are not currently served non-stop from SEA. If DL chooses not to expand, that is their wish. Clearly there are other companies that have expressed the wish to expand service to SEA - e.g. JL, CX, SQ, AA.
 
LAXBUR
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:19 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
To my understanding, Delta did not want to bottle-neck its own passengers at an antiquated IAF. That is their "reason" for no new international flights, but, of course, who knows the real reason: KE alliance? Not right aircraft? Second-thoughts on the Seattle hub, no real vision for Seattle infrastructure expansion?


Soooo you’re stating Delta made a decision on their own accord to not add flights even though they technically could. But you’re also stating another carrier should not be able to add flights because Delta may want to add more later? That’s like me taking a two tables at a restaurant because I may make some new friends as other groups that could use the table wait.

Your argument isn’t holding up.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:27 pm

onwFan wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
To my understanding, Delta did not want to bottle-neck its own passengers at an antiquated IAF. That is their "reason" for no new international flights, but, of course, who knows the real reason: KE alliance? Not right aircraft? Second-thoughts on the Seattle hub, no real vision for Seattle infrastructure expansion?


There is no reason for SEA to sit and wait for DL to expand at their own pace when there are other carriers that want to fly to destinations that are not currently served non-stop from SEA. If DL chooses not to expand, that is their wish. Clearly there are other companies that have expressed the wish to expand service to SEA - e.g. JL, CX, SQ, AA.


I agree. But your reply is not a direct answer to my ultimate argument: that a strong #2 ( Delta) may eventually not be able to expand due to inadequate infrastructure, leaving only Alaska and American having the only sizeable op (as PARTNERS).
In other words, much like Southwest wanting slots in a slot-constrained airport as part of a merger settlement, or a JV settlement. But substitute slots with Seattle airport infrastructure (terminal space, gates).
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:37 pm

LAXBUR wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
To my understanding, Delta did not want to bottle-neck its own passengers at an antiquated IAF. That is their "reason" for no new international flights, but, of course, who knows the real reason: KE alliance? Not right aircraft? Second-thoughts on the Seattle hub, no real vision for Seattle infrastructure expansion?


Soooo you’re stating Delta made a decision on their own accord to not add flights even though they technically could. But you’re also stating another carrier should not be able to add flights because Delta may want to add more later? That’s like me taking a two tables at a restaurant because I may make some new friends as other groups that could use the table wait.

Your argument isn’t holding up.


My argument is holding up, unlike your tables. Solely in the context of two airlines benefitting each other (Alaska and American) in a constrained airport, a viable future for the existing carriers at the airport will be lessened if Seattle airport does not keep up with demand. In light of this fact currently, the Alaska-American alliance is not immune to escaping this reality and problem. And approval for the alliance perhaps should be met with gate forfeiture, if Seattle realizes that real competition benefits the community.
 
sxf24
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:47 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
To my understanding, Delta did not want to bottle-neck its own passengers at an antiquated IAF. That is their "reason" for no new international flights, but, of course, who knows the real reason: KE alliance? Not right aircraft? Second-thoughts on the Seattle hub, no real vision for Seattle infrastructure expansion?


Soooo you’re stating Delta made a decision on their own accord to not add flights even though they technically could. But you’re also stating another carrier should not be able to add flights because Delta may want to add more later? That’s like me taking a two tables at a restaurant because I may make some new friends as other groups that could use the table wait.

Your argument isn’t holding up.


My argument is holding up, unlike your tables. Solely in the context of two airlines benefitting each other (Alaska and American) in a constrained airport, a viable future for the existing carriers at the airport will be lessened if Seattle airport does not keep up with demand. In light of this fact currently, the Alaska-American alliance is not immune to escaping this reality and problem. And approval for the alliance perhaps should be met with gate forfeiture, if Seattle realizes that real competition benefits the community.


Seattle is not a constrained airport by any existing definition. Delta is also not getting any more international gates post IAF (nicer gates, Yes). So, you may want to find a new argument.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:53 pm

sxf24 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:

Soooo you’re stating Delta made a decision on their own accord to not add flights even though they technically could. But you’re also stating another carrier should not be able to add flights because Delta may want to add more later? That’s like me taking a two tables at a restaurant because I may make some new friends as other groups that could use the table wait.

Your argument isn’t holding up.


My argument is holding up, unlike your tables. Solely in the context of two airlines benefitting each other (Alaska and American) in a constrained airport, a viable future for the existing carriers at the airport will be lessened if Seattle airport does not keep up with demand. In light of this fact currently, the Alaska-American alliance is not immune to escaping this reality and problem. And approval for the alliance perhaps should be met with gate forfeiture, if Seattle realizes that real competition benefits the community.


Seattle is not a constrained airport by any existing definition. Delta is also not getting any more international gates post IAF (nicer gates, Yes). So, you may want to find a new argument.


My argument for gate divestitures (domestic) rests in above posts.
 
Osubuckeyes
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:55 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
onwFan wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
To my understanding, Delta did not want to bottle-neck its own passengers at an antiquated IAF. That is their "reason" for no new international flights, but, of course, who knows the real reason: KE alliance? Not right aircraft? Second-thoughts on the Seattle hub, no real vision for Seattle infrastructure expansion?


There is no reason for SEA to sit and wait for DL to expand at their own pace when there are other carriers that want to fly to destinations that are not currently served non-stop from SEA. If DL chooses not to expand, that is their wish. Clearly there are other companies that have expressed the wish to expand service to SEA - e.g. JL, CX, SQ, AA.


I agree. But your reply is not a direct answer to my ultimate argument: that a strong #2 ( Delta) may eventually not be able to expand due to inadequate infrastructure, leaving only Alaska and American having the only sizeable op (as PARTNERS).
In other words, much like Southwest wanting slots in a slot-constrained airport as part of a merger settlement, or a JV settlement. But substitute slots with Seattle airport infrastructure (terminal space, gates).


Overused or inadequate infrastructure is quite a bit different then actual slots. There is no gate/flight cap or other official capacity constraint at the current time in SEA, and thus any approval authority wouldn't even entertain an argument of monopolizing assets. To take it a step further I'm doubtful that a regulatory body would be concerned about this even if there were an official capacity constraint other than warning AS/AA not to collude on Domestic feed. Any capacity argument is futile from DL as we are talking about literally 2 flights (and it remains to be seen if AA is replacing a BA frequency).
 
sxf24
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:10 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:

My argument is holding up, unlike your tables. Solely in the context of two airlines benefitting each other (Alaska and American) in a constrained airport, a viable future for the existing carriers at the airport will be lessened if Seattle airport does not keep up with demand. In light of this fact currently, the Alaska-American alliance is not immune to escaping this reality and problem. And approval for the alliance perhaps should be met with gate forfeiture, if Seattle realizes that real competition benefits the community.


Seattle is not a constrained airport by any existing definition. Delta is also not getting any more international gates post IAF (nicer gates, Yes). So, you may want to find a new argument.


My argument for gate divestitures (domestic) rests in above posts.


Ok, so we're in agreement that your argument is flawed and makes no sense.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:13 pm

WIth AS partner HU looking like they'll soon be no more, maybe AA should consider SEA-PEK and PVG. I'll miss those cheap biz class mileage seats on HU to China!!
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:14 pm

A fascinating argument if brought to the table. I can understand your point if it can be determined there will be no domestic codeshares, or collussion, at any point in the future, and codeshares relegated to only American international flying. But to think Seattle is not constrained? I hear talk about all the hardstands there. For any viable #2 carrier to provide meaningful competition long-term to this "international" alliance, domestic expansion via infrastructure should be accommodated to the competing carriers, otherwise Seattle runs risk of losing meaningful competition on property.
 
Ishrion
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:15 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
WIth AS partner HU looking like they'll soon be no more, maybe AA should consider SEA-PEK and PVG. I'll miss those cheap biz class mileage seats on HU to China!!


Slots though? I mean, no carrier has taken the ORD-PVG/PEK slots AA dropped but I don’t think they can switch LAX to SEA?
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:17 pm

sxf24 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

Seattle is not a constrained airport by any existing definition. Delta is also not getting any more international gates post IAF (nicer gates, Yes). So, you may want to find a new argument.


My argument for gate divestitures (domestic) rests in above posts.


Ok, so we're in agreement that your argument is flawed and makes no sense.


My argument has always been about domestic gates.
 
alasizon
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:20 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:

My argument for gate divestitures (domestic) rests in above posts.


Ok, so we're in agreement that your argument is flawed and makes no sense.


My argument has always been about domestic gates.


Which is exactly the opposite of what this partnership is about; international flights.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:27 pm

alasizon wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

Ok, so we're in agreement that your argument is flawed and makes no sense.


My argument has always been about domestic gates.


Which is exactly the opposite of what this partnership is about; international flights.


Seattle sees the benefit of meaningful competition. If Alaska wants to take advantage of infrastructure challenges (alliance approval) without Seattle providing any real clear answer to accomodating the domesic competition that supports international flying, then in the long-run Delta won't lose, Seattle will. Therefore, I think there is a case for conditions if Delta wants to get nasty.
Last edited by TYWoolman on Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:28 pm

Delete
 
tphuang
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:36 pm

Let's get a few things straight here. DL is not adding more flights to Asia from SEA because it has changed its strategy to use its KE JV to access Asia rather than through SEA. SEA may have been useful at one point for DL as a west coast gateway to Asia, but it no longer serves that purpose. DL metal to Asia from SEA is likely to be doing pretty poor outside of ICN, because TPAC as a whole is just a really low yielding area and Skyteam lacks strong partner airlines in Asia outside of KE. If you look at DL earnings call, it's TPAC RASM is continually struggling. Drawing down NRT should help, but we are now facing the largest crisis in TPAC flights in quite a long time.

Also consider that other airlines have been able to make certain flights work that DL cannot due to their lower cost and much stronger hub on the other end. DL at SEA is a very weak hub. When an airline like SQ or CX gets both their home hub + AS feed in SEA, there is almost no way DL can compete with that. At this point, DL's international service at SEA is more about serving their customers at SEA rather than connecting customers from other part of the country to Asia. As such, there is very little reason for them to get much larger to Asia. Frankly, using KE JV to access Asia is a far more profitable way to go than making SEA into a true TPAC hub. Both AC at YVR and UA at SFO dominate whatever DL has at SEA.
 
sxf24
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:06 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
alasizon wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:

My argument has always been about domestic gates.


Which is exactly the opposite of what this partnership is about; international flights.


Seattle sees the benefit of meaningful competition. If Alaska wants to take advantage of infrastructure challenges (alliance approval) without Seattle providing any real clear answer to accomodating the domesic competition that supports international flying, then in the long-run Delta won't lose, Seattle will. Therefore, I think there is a case for conditions if Delta wants to get nasty.


Adding, what we suspect is, +1 net international flight, likely outside of the main European and Asian flight banks, is hardly an infrastructure challenge.

Gates are allocated in SEA based on utilization. If Delta wants more gates, it needs to add more flights and/or upguage.
 
phxsanslcpdx
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:22 pm

onwFan wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
SEAflyer97 wrote:
I bet they definitely found loopholes... in the announcment it says AS will start codesharing AA intl flights out of SEA and LAX.


I was gonna say. Without AS being able to codeshare on the AA intl flights out of SEA, what would be the point? That makes zero sense to announce a huge tie-up and AS entry into oneworld if they wouldn't be able to codeshare with AA.


True - After all, this alliance is going to prevent Seattle from being a single airline’s hub internationally to possibly two airlines’. Essentially they are introducing competition in Seattle and bringing new international routes which would not have happened without this partnership. So not sure why DOT should object to them codesharing on international + domestic connecting feed.


I went back to the press releases at aa.com and alaskaair.com, and they do NOT say that AS will start codesharing on AA flights out of SEA... looks to me like they were written pretty carefully to avoid making that promise. "The codeshare will expand to include international routes from Los Angeles (LAX) and SEA" is the terminology used. So if AA just sells flights to YYJ (already codesharing) and YLW (a new AA destination), it meets the specific wording of the announcement at SEA without overstepping the DOJ agreement.

As for asking what would be the point of moving forward with the current agreement still in place, AA can sell the SEA-BLR flight itself and through travel agents/brokers. LAX-BLR, PHX-BLR, CLT-BLR, ORD-BLR, PHL-BLR, MIA-BLR, and DFW-BLR can all be sold as one-stops on AA metal. Just about every destination other AS flies from SEA can be codeshared, so AA gets to sell SFO-BLR, FAT-BLR, PDX-BLR, etc. The only exceptions, I believe, are DAL-BLR, FLL-BLR, DCA-BLR, and JFK-BLR, since AA can't sell AS flights from those airports--but most of those are better-routed through Europe anyway, and DFW serves the metroplex well enough to make it worthwhile. LHR's in the same boat, but the relevant one-stops are much more likely to be those closer-in to SEA. AS wouldn't be able to sell Bangalore themselves under the current settlement... but it can still make sense and enhance traffic.

As to why the feds would object, the settlement was with DOJ (antitrust), not DOT. DOJ found documentation of AS corporate decision-making actively avoiding competition with DL and AA in order to avoid angering either partner. DOJ took the position that this was anticompetitive behavior, and made approval of the AS-VX merger contingent upon steps designed to turn the new AS into a robust competitor. If DOJ still wants to claim the stance that AS and AA should be in full competition, then it looks like even the announced partnership expansion is problematic, much less any easing of the consent decree. Personally, I'm not convinced that the DOJ's actions 5 years ago were warranted, and certainly circumstances have changed. But the DOJ's natural stance is to assume that AS should continue to be bound by the terms it voluntarily accepted unless there's a compelling argument to modify--and the burden of proof will be on AS to convince them otherwise.

I'm also not 100% sure AA would want to expand codesharing beyond what's permitted under the consent decree. This conversation came up because of the argument that travelers will do better to consolidate their mileage earning with AS, which might hurt AA's credit card sales if it occurs too broadly. But I'm not knowledgeable about how airlines look at their mileage customers vs. partners' mileage customers.
 
SUNCTRY738
Posts: 138
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:32 pm

onwFan wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:

Interesting argument. Competition is anti-competitive. Ha. Seriously, you have overtaken this thread with your nonsensical rants.


When the city has no viable plans to expand the footprint of the airport, there comes a time when an airline's quest to become larger by way of an alliance in an ever-shrinking industry deserves some pause. Would added "competition" result in a dominant Alaska-American without a viable strong #2 after Delta retreats? A case can be made out of anything is my point, much like the credit you have given me that I tookover this thread.


Lol. Are saying that a competitor should not be allowed to enter a market because the current player may lose its presence? That is basically what is called anti-competition


I would say this is pretty much what we have heard, though, about DL's expansion in SEA since 2014. Many claimed AS, the current player, was being threatened by the competitor DL as DL built up its presence. Competition is good going both ways.
 
FSDan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:27 pm

questions wrote:
SEAflyer97 wrote:
DL didn't add more flights because they didn't want to, not because of gate restrictions. Last year alone SEA added flights to HKG on CX, SIN on SQ, and NRT on JL.


Interesting. CX, SQ and JL didn’t care about the international arrivals experience but DL did? What’s the real reason DL hasn’t added more flights?


One thing to consider here is that DL probably has a much higher percentage of passengers who are transiting SEA and heading on to some other U.S. destination. Some JL/CX/SQ travelers may be connecting further on AS, but there are probably many more who are ending their journey in SEA (and may have originated somewhere else in Japan/China/Southeast Asia/India). As such, those carriers probably didn't worry so much about whether their passengers can make a 2 hour connection when deciding to start a new SEA route. DL has more vested interest in the connection experience being pleasant, which is what the opening of the new IAF will help with.

I'm not saying DL couldn't have been a little more creative with the timing of their international arrivals and hub banking in order to open some more international destinations in the short term... just that their stated reason for slowed expansion isn't completely invalid either.
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