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TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:30 pm

FSDan wrote:
questions wrote:
SEAflyer97 wrote:
DL didn't add more flights because they didn't want to, not because of gate restrictions. Last year alone SEA added flights to HKG on CX, SIN on SQ, and NRT on JL.


Interesting. CX, SQ and JL didn’t care about the international arrivals experience but DL did? What’s the real reason DL hasn’t added more flights?


One thing to consider here is that DL probably has a much higher percentage of passengers who are transiting SEA and heading on to some other U.S. destination. Some JL/CX/SQ travelers may be connecting further on AS, but there are probably many more who are ending their journey in SEA (and may have originated somewhere else in Japan/China/Southeast Asia/India). As such, those carriers probably didn't worry so much about whether their passengers can make a 2 hour connection when deciding to start a new SEA route. DL has more vested interest in the connection experience being pleasant, which is what the opening of the new IAF will help with.

I'm not saying DL couldn't have been a little more creative with the timing of their international arrivals and hub banking in order to open some more international destinations in the short term... just that their stated reason for slowed expansion isn't completely invalid either.


Good point.
 
FSDan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:37 pm

tphuang wrote:
Let's get a few things straight here. DL is not adding more flights to Asia from SEA because it has changed its strategy to use its KE JV to access Asia rather than through SEA. SEA may have been useful at one point for DL as a west coast gateway to Asia, but it no longer serves that purpose.


I don't think your second statement is true. The DL-KE JV doesn't include China, so DL's SEA-PEK/PKX and SEA-PVG flights certainly serve a purpose. Japan is a large local market from SEA and would be a backtrack to serve via ICN, thus the SEA-TYO and SEA-KIX flights serve a purpose. SEA-ICN is obviously important for the JV and the local market. So all of DL's current SEA-Asia flights do appear to serve a purpose within the DL network, and IMHO aren't easily replaceable through the JV.

I think the JV has likely had more of an impact on flights like SEA-HKG (which DL may have hung onto longer if they couldn't shift the traffic to KE), and potential new routes that aren't currently served (TPE, MNL, etc.). So you may well be correct in saying that we haven't seen more flights to Asia because of the KE JV. Nonetheless, I'd be very surprised if DL didn't announce any new routes with the opening of the new IAF. That would definitely indicate a strong change in strategy.
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Osubuckeyes
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:38 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
A fascinating argument if brought to the table. I can understand your point if it can be determined there will be no domestic codeshares, or collussion, at any point in the future, and codeshares relegated to only American international flying. But to think Seattle is not constrained? I hear talk about all the hardstands there. For any viable #2 carrier to provide meaningful competition long-term to this "international" alliance, domestic expansion via infrastructure should be accommodated to the competing carriers, otherwise Seattle runs risk of losing meaningful competition on property.


Collusion laws are always on the books so DL or any other carrier or entity could bring suit under anti-trust law at any time if they have a case that AA/AS are in violation of said laws. That is not limited to the establishment of this codeshare/partnership. One of the conditions set forth previously by the DOJ is that they remain in rigorous competition as previously discussed throughout this thread. Thus, AA/AS will likely exclude domestically competing markets... Lastly, for Delta to argue to DOJ against this code share in the manner that you contend they would have to demonstrate SEA as being capacity constrained, which IMO is a non-starter since it is not capacity or slot constrained at this time. Delta has the option and ability to add/upgauge flights if they wanted to there is nothing stopping them other than the convenience/financial health of their operation.
 
Aliqiout
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:39 pm

9w748capt wrote:
SEAflyer97 wrote:
phxsanslcpdx wrote:
The agreement says "Defendants shall not directly or indirectly, under the Alaska/American Codeshare Agreement or otherwise... market any American Flight that originates or terminates at any Key Alaska Airport...." SEA, unsurprisingly, is defined as one of those Key Alaska Airports. Lawyers might see some loophole there, but I don't, and it seems overly risky to try to sneak it through and then argue in court. Much better, as MAH4546 suggests, to apply to have the agreement modified/voided. And I'd give such a request a better-than-even chance of success, but I don't think it's a sure thing. And such a request would likely take some time.

I bet they definitely found loopholes... in the announcment it says AS will start codesharing AA intl flights out of SEA and LAX.


I was gonna say. Without AS being able to codeshare on the AA intl flights out of SEA, what would be the point? That makes zero sense to announce a huge tie-up and AS entry into oneworld if they wouldn't be able to codeshare with AA.

No codeshare doesn't mean no feed. Both AS and AA are already willing to sell you flights on OAL including eachother, a simple change in fare rules by AA would allow end on end ticketing with AS on discount fares
 
onwFan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:19 pm

Aliqiout wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
SEAflyer97 wrote:
I bet they definitely found loopholes... in the announcment it says AS will start codesharing AA intl flights out of SEA and LAX.


I was gonna say. Without AS being able to codeshare on the AA intl flights out of SEA, what would be the point? That makes zero sense to announce a huge tie-up and AS entry into oneworld if they wouldn't be able to codeshare with AA.

No codeshare doesn't mean no feed. Both AS and AA are already willing to sell you flights on OAL including eachother, a simple change in fare rules by AA would allow end on end ticketing with AS on discount fares


Well, the ability for AS and AA to sell each other’s flights under their own code and fare buckets/rules will also be important for attracting their own FFs and providing a smooth experience for passengers.

In any case, I feel AS joining oneworld is the more crucial development, which gives AS better control of international passenger flows onto their own/codeshared oneworld flights by virtue of loyalty. That way, SkyTeam passengers are drawn to the DL flights and oneworld to the AS flights - establishing an actual competition for intenational/business passengers between AS and DL.
 
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TransWorldOne
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:25 pm

tphuang wrote:
Let's get a few things straight here. DL is not adding more flights to Asia from SEA because it has changed its strategy to use its KE JV to access Asia rather than through SEA. SEA may have been useful at one point for DL as a west coast gateway to Asia, but it no longer serves that purpose. DL metal to Asia from SEA is likely to be doing pretty poor outside of ICN, because TPAC as a whole is just a really low yielding area and Skyteam lacks strong partner airlines in Asia outside of KE. If you look at DL earnings call, it's TPAC RASM is continually struggling. Drawing down NRT should help, but we are now facing the largest crisis in TPAC flights in quite a long time.

Also consider that other airlines have been able to make certain flights work that DL cannot due to their lower cost and much stronger hub on the other end. DL at SEA is a very weak hub. When an airline like SQ or CX gets both their home hub + AS feed in SEA, there is almost no way DL can compete with that. At this point, DL's international service at SEA is more about serving their customers at SEA rather than connecting customers from other part of the country to Asia. As such, there is very little reason for them to get much larger to Asia. Frankly, using KE JV to access Asia is a far more profitable way to go than making SEA into a true TPAC hub. Both AC at YVR and UA at SFO dominate whatever DL has at SEA.


I couldn't agree with you more. I don't see DL adding any additional TPAC from SEA, new IAF or not. In fact, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beijing never resumes.
 
questions
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:29 pm

DL never intended to make SEA an SFO-like mega hub. LAX and SEA will work together. If DL wants to build up TPAC business, they will need another strong JV partner, similar to KE. KE plus the other third rate SkyTeam partners is not the answer.

AA will also not turn SEA into an SFO-like mega hub. AA + AS + oneworld partner airlines will create a formidable presence and value proposition on the West Coast — LAX, SFO, PDX and SEA.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:35 pm

TransWorldOne wrote:
I don't see DL adding any additional TPAC from SEA, new IAF or not. In fact, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beijing never resumes.


Not that architecturally or SEA and its new Terminal reminds me of Pittsburgh in any way, I just hope we are NOT seeing history repeat itself in the Pacific Rim making. That’s was a real hit to KPIT.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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TransWorldOne
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 9:30 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
TransWorldOne wrote:
I don't see DL adding any additional TPAC from SEA, new IAF or not. In fact, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beijing never resumes.


Not that architecturally or SEA and its new Terminal reminds me of Pittsburgh in any way, I just hope we are NOT seeing history repeat itself in the Pacific Rim making. That’s was a real hit to KPIT.


Don’t worry, you will not see a PIT-style scenario in SEA anytime soon. SEA TPAC service will continue to thrive. The question is, how much of the pie will DL get? Or will OneWorld drive them (and their unprofitable TPAC operation) out of town ?
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 9:59 pm

I'd like to see deal nudge Alaska into flying to places like XNA and MEM from SEA since American has a large presence at both airports

I suppose this could free up some metal for both in the short term on redundant routes for both the cover their MAX issues
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:00 pm

I'd like to see deal nudge Alaska into flying to places like XNA and MEM from SEA since American has a large presence at both airports

I suppose this could free up some metal for both in the short term on redundant routes for both the cover their MAX issues
 
alasizon
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:23 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
I'd like to see deal nudge Alaska into flying to places like XNA and MEM from SEA since American has a large presence at both airports

I suppose this could free up some metal for both in the short term on redundant routes for both the cover their MAX issues


SEA-MEM is about 59 PDEW
SEA-XNA is about 22 PDEW

Neither are going to be supporting service to SEA any time soon; particularly when they both already have West Coast links.

As far as redundant routes, either carrier failing to compete in their respective areas will likely result in an anti-trust issue so if anything they need to beef up competition more.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
FSDan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:25 pm

TransWorldOne wrote:
I don't see DL adding any additional TPAC from SEA, new IAF or not. In fact, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beijing never resumes.


The only way I think Beijing doesn't resume on DL is if U.S.-China traffic stays way down long term. With HU on the brink of collapse, it only improves DL's chances of succeeding. Also, I'd be very surprised to see AA step in on SEA-PEK since PEK isn't exactly a strong station for them either... they use the smallest gauge possible these days from both LAX and DFW.

Also, note that Beijing isn't a market DL can hand off to KE under the JV, so if they walk away from SEA-PKX they're basically walking away from Western U.S.-Beijing traffic entirely. The best way for DL customers in PDX, SAN, LAS, PHX, SLC, DEN, MSP, etc. to get to Beijing is through SEA.
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Aliqiout
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:30 pm

onwFan wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
9w748capt wrote:

I was gonna say. Without AS being able to codeshare on the AA intl flights out of SEA, what would be the point? That makes zero sense to announce a huge tie-up and AS entry into oneworld if they wouldn't be able to codeshare with AA.

No codeshare doesn't mean no feed. Both AS and AA are already willing to sell you flights on OAL including eachother, a simple change in fare rules by AA would allow end on end ticketing with AS on discount fares


Well, the ability for AS and AA to sell each other’s flights under their own code and fare buckets/rules will also be important for attracting their own FFs and providing a smooth experience for passengers.

In any case, I feel AS joining oneworld is the more crucial development, which gives AS better control of international passenger flows onto their own/codeshared oneworld flights by virtue of loyalty. That way, SkyTeam passengers are drawn to the DL flights and oneworld to the AS flights - establishing an actual competition for intenational/business passengers between AS and DL.

Codeshares don't make the costumer experience any smoother, except the fact that FF earning follows the same rules for every flight on the ticket. There are other ways to tackle that issue if it is seen as a problem. If anything codesharing is a negative from the customer perspective. It confuses less experienced travelers and doesn't add anything an interline ticket with a milage partner doesn't already offer.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:11 am

Osubuckeyes wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
A fascinating argument if brought to the table. I can understand your point if it can be determined there will be no domestic codeshares, or collussion, at any point in the future, and codeshares relegated to only American international flying. But to think Seattle is not constrained? I hear talk about all the hardstands there. For any viable #2 carrier to provide meaningful competition long-term to this "international" alliance, domestic expansion via infrastructure should be accommodated to the competing carriers, otherwise Seattle runs risk of losing meaningful competition on property.


Collusion laws are always on the books so DL or any other carrier or entity could bring suit under anti-trust law at any time if they have a case that AA/AS are in violation of said laws. That is not limited to the establishment of this codeshare/partnership. One of the conditions set forth previously by the DOJ is that they remain in rigorous competition as previously discussed throughout th3is thread. Thus, AA/AS will likely exclude domestically competing markets... Lastly, for Delta to argue to DOJ against this code share in the manner that you contend they would have to demonstrate SEA as being capacity constrained, which IMO is a non-starter since it is not capacity or slot constrained at this time. Delta has the option and ability to add/upgauge flights if they wanted to there is nothing stopping them other than the convenience/financial health of their operation.


Delta's expansion may very well be accomodated by the current airport infrastructure, but Alaska has and would continue to add a proportional amount of flights so as not to lose gates to Delta imperpetuity. It's just the reality in the Seattle market, and Alaska has publicly announced its intent on defending its turf by doing just that. Alaska (and Delta) have a well documented history regarding these actions and reactions. Delta can demonstrate its eager intent on expansion as a result of YOY statistics and directly correlate such growth with Alaska' mirrored intent to increase flights so as not to lose gates. As a result, GATE allocation stays stagnant all the while Seattle airport is not demonstrating its intent on future accommodation for any meaningful domestic expansion by Delta as a result. Delta can demonstrate that the dominant domestic carrier (Alaska) is attempting to collude with a larger rival without the necessary airport infrastructure there for competition to respond by any effective means. The DOJ should take into consideration the intentional or unintentional consequences the alliance would have on the long-term competitive environnment as a result of "hording" gates under the current gate allocation process which small-airport Seattle has forced upon carriers there with no meaningful way for competition to thrive long-term. Alaska is clearly taking advantage of the inadequacies of its hometown airport and might just steal competition away relegating Seattle towards a one-airline town, with American piggy-backing!
 
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SANFan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:17 am

D L X wrote:
I gotta tell ya: being DCA-based, AS joining Oneworld is huge! Lots more transcon options now.

Hello DCA-SFO! Hello DCA-SEA! Hello more DCA-LAX!

I wonder if AA brings back DCA-SAN now?

Assuming OneWorld would allow complete code-sharing. etc., on AA & AS routes between DCA and the west coast, your last sentence sure caught my attention! Good question D L'.

Since getting one of those four "moveable" Beyond-Perimeter DCA-authorities from AA (2 of them), UA or DL is the only realistic way SAN can see nonstop service to Reagan Airport -- last time I looked, either the nation's top or second largest unserved nonstop route! -- this possibility sure intrigues me!

I know there's no way UA or DL would ever do it so it would require AA to make a very tough decision of picking a SAN-need over an existing and very profitable LAX route. Honestly, I would be bowled over if the carrier would ever make such a move but they would certainly get back a lot of friends in San Diego that they lost back in early 2014 when they elected to move their SAN-DCA route (awarded originally to USAir in 2012) north 100 miles to LA.

Even a "slim-to-none" chance that this possibility represents is better than anything else seen in the last 6 years to get much-needed SAN-DCA service reinstated.

bb
 
Denvair
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:23 am

Considering how friendly AA and AS are in other areas, I predict a merger between the two companies in the near future.
 
onwFan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:17 am

Yes, indeed - once AS joins, oneworld will have at least one non-stop flight a day between every major city on the West Coast (SEA, PDX, SFO/SJC, LAX and SAN) and every major city on the East coast (BOS, JFK/EWR, PHL, IAD/DCA/BWI + MIA/FLL?) - I would guess MIA-PDX should be only a matter of time.
 
jbpdx
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:53 am

onwFan wrote:
Yes, indeed - once AS joins, oneworld will have at least one non-stop flight a day between every major city on the West Coast (SEA, PDX, SFO/SJC, LAX and SAN) and every major city on the East coast (BOS, JFK/EWR, PHL, IAD/DCA/BWI + MIA/FLL?) - I would guess MIA-PDX should be only a matter of time.


Alaska only runs PDX-BWI for a handful of weeks in summer, American PDX-PHL the same. Only United flies PDX-IAD. Not holding my breath for any new routes from Portland on AS or AA.
^
 
onwFan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:34 am

jbpdx wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Yes, indeed - once AS joins, oneworld will have at least one non-stop flight a day between every major city on the West Coast (SEA, PDX, SFO/SJC, LAX and SAN) and every major city on the East coast (BOS, JFK/EWR, PHL, IAD/DCA/BWI + MIA/FLL?) - I would guess MIA-PDX should be only a matter of time.


Alaska only runs PDX-BWI for a handful of weeks in summer, American PDX-PHL the same. Only United flies PDX-IAD. Not holding my breath for any new routes from Portland on AS or AA.


I didn't mean between between all airports in every city - I meant passengers will have at least one option between every city/area pair, i.e. SFO or SJC to DCA or IAD or BWI, etc. It is reasonable to expect PHL-PDX to go year-round.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:55 am

onwFan wrote:
I feel AS joining oneworld is the more crucial development, which gives AS better control of international passenger flows onto their own/codeshared oneworld flights by virtue of loyalty. That way, SkyTeam passengers are drawn to the DL flights and oneworld to the AS flights - establishing an actual competition for intenational/business passengers between AS and DL.


:checkmark:

And with one part of the growth plan now being public, ordering 200 new airplanes - 100 replacements and 100 for growth - all of which will be 737 MAX 9 or larger, AS does plan on considerable growth to feed international flights at SEA, LAX, and so on, aiming squarely at taking a lot of the corporate traffic off DL and onto AS/AA and other oneworld carriers.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -aerospace
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
ANA787
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 7:26 am

jbpdx wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Yes, indeed - once AS joins, oneworld will have at least one non-stop flight a day between every major city on the West Coast (SEA, PDX, SFO/SJC, LAX and SAN) and every major city on the East coast (BOS, JFK/EWR, PHL, IAD/DCA/BWI + MIA/FLL?) - I would guess MIA-PDX should be only a matter of time.


Alaska only runs PDX-BWI for a handful of weeks in summer, American PDX-PHL the same. Only United flies PDX-IAD. Not holding my breath for any new routes from Portland on AS or AA.


Realistically all I can see are PDX-MIA on AA and PDX-NRT on JAL.
 
grbauc
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 7:45 am

onwFan wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
9w748capt wrote:

I was gonna say. Without AS being able to codeshare on the AA intl flights out of SEA, what would be the point? That makes zero sense to announce a huge tie-up and AS entry into oneworld if they wouldn't be able to codeshare with AA.

No codeshare doesn't mean no feed. Both AS and AA are already willing to sell you flights on OAL including eachother, a simple change in fare rules by AA would allow end on end ticketing with AS on discount fares


Well, the ability for AS and AA to sell each other’s flights under their own code and fare buckets/rules will also be important for attracting their own FFs and providing a smooth experience for passengers.

In any case, I feel AS joining oneworld is the more crucial development, which gives AS better control of international passenger flows onto their own/codeshared oneworld flights by virtue of loyalty. That way, SkyTeam passengers are drawn to the DL flights and oneworld to the AS flights - establishing an actual competition for intenational/business passengers between AS and DL.



I think you hit it right on the button...
 
LAXBUR
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:56 am

Denvair wrote:
Considering how friendly AA and AS are in other areas, I predict a merger between the two companies in the near future.


Groundbreaking. “Other areas”? Like lounge access? That’s been available for years.

There is no trend of airlines codesharing or partnering then merging soon after. Did AirTran and Southwest partner before merger? Did AA and US codeshare before merger? NW/DL/CO had codeshares in the 2000s I believe. They didn’t all merge with each other. America West and TWA were going to codeshare - they didn’t merge. AA took out TWA. Alaska has codeshared and partnered with various airlines such as NW, DL, and AA.

Could it happen? Sure. But none of these merger predictions are based on anything real.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:36 am

EA CO AS wrote:
- all of which will be 737 MAX 9 or larger, AS does plan on considerable growth to feed international

What does this mean to inter-Alaska routes currently supplied by the -700?
 
tphuang
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:27 am

EA CO AS wrote:
onwFan wrote:
I feel AS joining oneworld is the more crucial development, which gives AS better control of international passenger flows onto their own/codeshared oneworld flights by virtue of loyalty. That way, SkyTeam passengers are drawn to the DL flights and oneworld to the AS flights - establishing an actual competition for intenational/business passengers between AS and DL.


:checkmark:

And with one part of the growth plan now being public, ordering 200 new airplanes - 100 replacements and 100 for growth - all of which will be 737 MAX 9 or larger, AS does plan on considerable growth to feed international flights at SEA, LAX, and so on, aiming squarely at taking a lot of the corporate traffic off DL and onto AS/AA and other oneworld carriers.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -aerospace

Have to say that my jaw is not dropping from the idea of 10 a321s a year for growth. That seems to be minimal growth for an airline of Alaska airlines size. For comparison, nk is adding over 20 neos this year and another 100 in the next 6 or 7 years.
 
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chepos
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 3:32 pm

ANA787 wrote:
jbpdx wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Yes, indeed - once AS joins, oneworld will have at least one non-stop flight a day between every major city on the West Coast (SEA, PDX, SFO/SJC, LAX and SAN) and every major city on the East coast (BOS, JFK/EWR, PHL, IAD/DCA/BWI + MIA/FLL?) - I would guess MIA-PDX should be only a matter of time.


Alaska only runs PDX-BWI for a handful of weeks in summer, American PDX-PHL the same. Only United flies PDX-IAD. Not holding my breath for any new routes from Portland on AS or AA.


Realistically all I can see are PDX-MIA on AA and PDX-NRT on JAL.


I actually think it would be AS launching PDX-MIA or FLL. MIA would make more sense to have feed on both ends. If AS opens up a MIA station, I wonder if they would operate out of E ? (SPACE PERMITTING) To be alongside OW carriers.


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smflyer
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 3:57 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
TransWorldOne wrote:
I don't see DL adding any additional TPAC from SEA, new IAF or not. In fact, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beijing never resumes.


Not that architecturally or SEA and its new Terminal reminds me of Pittsburgh in any way, I just hope we are NOT seeing history repeat itself in the Pacific Rim making. That’s was a real hit to KPIT.


Problem with PIT was that it had a small O&D presence compared to connecting traffic. SEA's growth into the next few decades can overcome complete closure of TPAC service.
 
AirFiero
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 4:53 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
onwFan wrote:
I feel AS joining oneworld is the more crucial development, which gives AS better control of international passenger flows onto their own/codeshared oneworld flights by virtue of loyalty. That way, SkyTeam passengers are drawn to the DL flights and oneworld to the AS flights - establishing an actual competition for intenational/business passengers between AS and DL.


:checkmark:

And with one part of the growth plan now being public, ordering 200 new airplanes - 100 replacements and 100 for growth - all of which will be 737 MAX 9 or larger, AS does plan on considerable growth to feed international flights at SEA, LAX, and so on, aiming squarely at taking a lot of the corporate traffic off DL and onto AS/AA and other oneworld carriers.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -aerospace


It seems reasonable to assume that most of the growth in the foreseeable future at AS will be at SEA and LAX, and connecting cities to those two stations. SAN may pick up a thing or two, and any appreciable growth at SJC will be on WN. DL hasn’t done much at SJC, and has their hands full elsewhere. I’d expect AS’s “focus cities” won’t see much growth, certainly not like we’ve seen the last few years. That’s too bad, I’d have hoped to parlay whatever AAdvantage miles I can accrue into a wider range of non stop flights, but now it looks like nothing special for me at SJC unless I connect in SEA, LAX or DFW. Same ole, same ole.
 
MAH4546
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:40 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
- all of which will be 737 MAX 9 or larger, AS does plan on considerable growth to feed international

What does this mean to inter-Alaska routes currently supplied by the -700?


Nothing.

If the 73Gs leave, they’ll be flown with bigger planes.

It’s not as if they are suddenly not viable with a 739 or A321.
a.
 
jmc1975
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 7:42 pm

With AS joining OneWorld, could we see them restarting Russian Far East routes (ie VVO, KHV, GDX) to connect with S7 Airlines? They now have far more capable aircraft than the MD80s that were flown there in the 1990s.
.......
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 7:46 pm

AirFiero wrote:
I’d expect AS’s “focus cities” won’t see much growth


The entire 5 year plan hasn't been made public yet. All I'll say is that your expectation is incorrect. :)
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
lhpdx
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:13 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I’d expect AS’s “focus cities” won’t see much growth


The entire 5 year plan hasn't been made public yet. All I'll say is that your expectation is incorrect. :)


PDX and SFO also apart of AS 5-year plan?
 
Byrdluvs747
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:20 pm

jmc1975 wrote:
With AS joining OneWorld, could we see them restarting Russian Far East routes (ie VVO, KHV, GDX) to connect with S7 Airlines? They now have far more capable aircraft than the MD80s that were flown there in the 1990s.


I cant see AS doing any Russia flights until the sanctions and/or Putin are gone. Even then, what would drive these Russian routes? I can maybe understand VVO(I've always wanted to go there), but KHV and GDX? Are the old Russia cultural ties in Alaska enough to support these flights?
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
QXAS
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:23 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
onwFan wrote:
I feel AS joining oneworld is the more crucial development, which gives AS better control of international passenger flows onto their own/codeshared oneworld flights by virtue of loyalty. That way, SkyTeam passengers are drawn to the DL flights and oneworld to the AS flights - establishing an actual competition for intenational/business passengers between AS and DL.


:checkmark:

And with one part of the growth plan now being public, ordering 200 new airplanes - 100 replacements and 100 for growth - all of which will be 737 MAX 9 or larger, AS does plan on considerable growth to feed international flights at SEA, LAX, and so on, aiming squarely at taking a lot of the corporate traffic off DL and onto AS/AA and other oneworld carriers.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -aerospace

One place the Seattle Times doesn’t specify is whether the current 7M9 or 32N orders are part of the 100+100 or whether we can expect to see 200 new orders. A difference of 62 frames is major. Additionally, based on fleet age and delivery dates. With 100 replacements, 16 738s can be replaced if we assume a 1-1 scheme. Is the start of 738 replacements a fair assumption to make?
I am NOT an employee of any airline or manufacturer. I speak for myself, not on the behalf of any company.
 
Lootess
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:29 pm

Still have doubts on the success of SEA-BLR. Granted they are doing the thing that DL-AS did at-first, buddy up using AS's domestic feed. BA's LHR has been there. So it's just one flight compared to an entire NW induced transpac network that DL built the hub upon.

Personally would like Delta metal back on SEA-LHR because I'm sure they can support a second flight. Regardless, DL has nothing to fear because AA's involvement in the hub is rather pedestrian.
 
strfyr51
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:12 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Of course this is a win-win for both carrier from AS perspective. We will see about AA in a few years. DL made a huge tactical error in picking war with AA here. And AA in its anger decided to take a move that's clearly beneficial in short term, but is grooming a dangerous competitor in the long term.

Would you deny that AS at some point in near future will start expanding in California again on midcon and transcon market. That all this current north south + SEA flights is just a temporary situation while DL remains a threat in PNW? Long term, it's in AA's interest to cede west coast to AS? I'm sure AS would love that. But is that best for AA long term?

Sure, AA can try to merge with AS, but it's stock prices is rock bottom. It would be a huge risk to buy AS at their current market cap. and unless AA can really turn things around, it would be hard for it to buy AS.

Oh and don't underestimate DL's willingness to continue to lose money at SEA. DL management has shown no shortage of confidence or belief that they can somehow turn hopeless situation around and DL supporters on this forum will continue to defend all their actions.

so
big winner AS
small winner AA
small loser UA/B6/WN
big loser DL


No, UA is the biggest loser.
Because AA+AS and DL can now supply corp contracts with flights to tech and financial centers over SEA instead of SFO. Not to mention SEA - Asia is shorter than SFO - Asia. I can see Apple, Google, Microsoft, etc. all flock to AA/AS or DL instead of UA.
Add to this the horrible presence of UA at the East Coast (EWR = junk, IAD = useless), UA is screwed. Unless they come up quickly with a master stroke.

really? You're Dreaming! IBM , AMD,Apple and Intel are all going to all of a sudden decide that SEA is their hub of choice when SFO is right up the Street? What is the incentive? Maybe you'd netter go look at SFO's Terminal from 0800-1800 before you say that again. And? Not just United's Tails standing tall either. International Airlines from all over the world are sitting there wingtip to wingtip, And SEA is going to take that awau from SFO? You've gotta' be Joking! you're just talking to BE talking! You have No Idea about What!!
 
questions
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:21 pm

Lootess wrote:
Still have doubts on the success of SEA-BLR. Granted they are doing the thing that DL-AS did at-first, buddy up using AS's domestic feed. BA's LHR has been there. So it's just one flight compared to an entire NW induced transpac network that DL built the hub upon.

Personally would like Delta metal back on SEA-LHR because I'm sure they can support a second flight. Regardless, DL has nothing to fear because AA's involvement in the hub is rather pedestrian.


This is NOT about SEA and SEA-BLR.

This IS about AS providing West Coast feed to AA and oneworld partners via LAX, SFO, PDX and SEA for TPAC growth and increased market share.

Talking about SEA and SEA-BLR is simply a distraction to the overarching strategy.

Absent an aggressive TPAC strategy, including another strong partner, DL will find itself in third place in the TPAC market. That could be fine if DL sees profitable dominance elsewhere.
 
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SANFan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:28 pm

onwFan wrote:
Yes, indeed - once AS joins, oneworld will have at least one non-stop flight a day between every major city on the West Coast (SEA, PDX, SFO/SJC, LAX and SAN) and every major city on the East coast (BOS, JFK/EWR, PHL, IAD/DCA/BWI + MIA/FLL?)

SAN-WAS will at best see one very seasonal nonstop flight -- to BWI on AS -- if AS maintains that route, which I doubt.

There is no OW service between either IAD or DCA and SAN; as I previously posted up-thread, thanks to our friends at AA, SAN-DCA is the one major missing route from Reagan Airport to the west coast.

bb
 
jbpdx
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:56 pm

lhpdx wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I’d expect AS’s “focus cities” won’t see much growth


The entire 5 year plan hasn't been made public yet. All I'll say is that your expectation is incorrect. :)


PDX and SFO also apart of AS 5-year plan?


PDX isn’t a focus city, it’s Alaska’s No.2 hub. But I still think Portland will see more new routes from Delta than Alaska. If AS focuses entirely on SEA, they become vulnerable at PDX.
^
 
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msp747
Posts: 479
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:15 am

QXAS wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
onwFan wrote:
I feel AS joining oneworld is the more crucial development, which gives AS better control of international passenger flows onto their own/codeshared oneworld flights by virtue of loyalty. That way, SkyTeam passengers are drawn to the DL flights and oneworld to the AS flights - establishing an actual competition for intenational/business passengers between AS and DL.


:checkmark:

And with one part of the growth plan now being public, ordering 200 new airplanes - 100 replacements and 100 for growth - all of which will be 737 MAX 9 or larger, AS does plan on considerable growth to feed international flights at SEA, LAX, and so on, aiming squarely at taking a lot of the corporate traffic off DL and onto AS/AA and other oneworld carriers.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -aerospace

One place the Seattle Times doesn’t specify is whether the current 7M9 or 32N orders are part of the 100+100 or whether we can expect to see 200 new orders. A difference of 62 frames is major. Additionally, based on fleet age and delivery dates. With 100 replacements, 16 738s can be replaced if we assume a 1-1 scheme. Is the start of 738 replacements a fair assumption to make?

Isn't the 738 fleet relatively new? I'm fairly certain the oldest planes in the AS fleet are the 700's and non-ER 900's, which are around 20 years old. That's 23 aircraft. Those plus the A319/320 fleet should get you close to 100 planes.
 
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msp747
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:26 am

EA CO AS wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I’d expect AS’s “focus cities” won’t see much growth


The entire 5 year plan hasn't been made public yet. All I'll say is that your expectation is incorrect. :)

Hopefully that means more growth at BOI. I really like what they've done at my hometown airport as of late, with all of the California flying, and would like to see them strengthen their position there. BOI just started construction on an expansion plan that includes a new concourse. Hopefully AS can take advantage of those new gates.
 
QXAS
Posts: 366
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:17 am

msp747 wrote:
QXAS wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:

:checkmark:

And with one part of the growth plan now being public, ordering 200 new airplanes - 100 replacements and 100 for growth - all of which will be 737 MAX 9 or larger, AS does plan on considerable growth to feed international flights at SEA, LAX, and so on, aiming squarely at taking a lot of the corporate traffic off DL and onto AS/AA and other oneworld carriers.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -aerospace

One place the Seattle Times doesn’t specify is whether the current 7M9 or 32N orders are part of the 100+100 or whether we can expect to see 200 new orders. A difference of 62 frames is major. Additionally, based on fleet age and delivery dates. With 100 replacements, 16 738s can be replaced if we assume a 1-1 scheme. Is the start of 738 replacements a fair assumption to make?

Isn't the 738 fleet relatively new? I'm fairly certain the oldest planes in the AS fleet are the 700's and non-ER 900's, which are around 20 years old. That's 23 aircraft. Those plus the A319/320 fleet should get you close to 100 planes.

That’s what I’ve thought too. The 73G, nonER 739, and 320/319 comes to 84 frames. The first 738 was delivered in 2005, so I always expected the 738 fleet to soldier on until Boeing launches a clean sheet narrowbody. I wasn’t expecting 738 replacements to start so that’s why I’m curious if this wave of replacements will start the 738s.
I am NOT an employee of any airline or manufacturer. I speak for myself, not on the behalf of any company.
 
gaystudpilot
Posts: 266
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2007 10:55 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:32 am

This will be very good for AS and AA. And DL is not sitting idly by. There will be a response to this. Look for a select partnership with WN on specific routes. Also, remember, not all Asian carriers are satisfied in their respective alliances. Someone is going to jump. Deal teams are very active.
 
TWA902fly
Posts: 3131
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:19 am

Byrdluvs747 wrote:
jmc1975 wrote:
With AS joining OneWorld, could we see them restarting Russian Far East routes (ie VVO, KHV, GDX) to connect with S7 Airlines? They now have far more capable aircraft than the MD80s that were flown there in the 1990s.


I cant see AS doing any Russia flights until the sanctions and/or Putin are gone. Even then, what would drive these Russian routes? I can maybe understand VVO(I've always wanted to go there), but KHV and GDX? Are the old Russia cultural ties in Alaska enough to support these flights?


There are some first-generation Russian immigrants in Alaska, but the population of the state is still small. Yakutia runs a weekly 73G ANC-PKC flight in the summer, but that's about it.

I could see S7 (not Alaska) flying something like VVO-ANC 1x/week in the summer, but that's about it. They fly some similar length routes with the 320NEO.

'902
life wasn't worth the balance, or the crumpled paper it was written on
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:24 am

MAH4546 wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
- all of which will be 737 MAX 9 or larger, AS does plan on considerable growth to feed international

What does this mean to inter-Alaska routes currently supplied by the -700?


Nothing.

If the 73Gs leave, they’ll be flown with bigger planes.

It’s not as if they are suddenly not viable with a 739 or A321.

I was under the impression they the -700 had a better runway performance from our slightly shorter fields.
 
JOYA380B747
Posts: 794
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:32 pm

If given the choice to a OW premium FF on a West Coast-BLR route -
would he/she choose
AS - AA to BLR via SEA. OR
AA/BA- BA to BLR via LHR ??

Assuming similar fares and connecting times.
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superjeff
Posts: 1374
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:14 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:32 pm

JOYA380B747 wrote:
If given the choice to a OW premium FF on a West Coast-BLR route -
would he/she choose
AS - AA to BLR via SEA. OR
AA/BA- BA to BLR via LHR ??

Assuming similar fares and connecting times.



1. SEA on the West Coast-BLR route is a domestic to international connection, while SEA-LHR-BLR involves an international to international connection, and a possible T3 to T5 change in London. SEA is easier. Coming back has customs/immigration in SEA (mid flight) and for non-US citizens, particularly, could be a bit more complicated. BUT:
2. AA's Premium service (Business Class) hard product is generally regarded as equal to or better than BA's.

i'm in middle America so it wouldn't affect me, but if those were my choices from the West Coast (even LAX), I'd choose the SEA connection to avoid the cluster f**k that is LHR for an AA to BA connection between terminals.
 
TFawkes
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:51 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:37 pm

Make SEA an international gateway? That's a bad joke. Generally speaking you will be 1.5-2 hours faster flying from the East and Midwest down to SFO/LAX and then west on to Asia, Australia, and New Zealand vs. going first up to YVR, a mere 20 minute flight from SEA. The local traffic from Washington, Oregon, and the Dakotas is not enough to make SEA an international gateway, and those are the only states that would have SEA as the most convenient international airport.
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 387
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:57 pm

TFawkes wrote:
Make SEA an international gateway? That's a bad joke. Generally speaking you will be 1.5-2 hours faster flying from the East and Midwest down to SFO/LAX and then west on to Asia, Australia, and New Zealand vs. going first up to YVR, a mere 20 minute flight from SEA. The local traffic from Washington, Oregon, and the Dakotas is not enough to make SEA an international gateway, and those are the only states that would have SEA as the most convenient international airport.

but SEA already is a an international gateway...

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