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bigb
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:49 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
onwFan wrote:
acavpics wrote:
If AA goes ahead with SEA-BLR, then your can be almost certain that BLR-SFO on UA metal will come just months later.

As others have pointed out earlier, UA has no aircraft that makes the economics of such a long haul route like SFO-BLR work, which is also why the dropped LAX-SIN... SEA is pretty much the only major city in North America from where South India can be served profitably.


I surely I hope you meant DL does have the A/C. UA and AA LH fleet mirrors each other with 787s and 777s
 
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stl07
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:51 pm

onwFan wrote:
acavpics wrote:
If AA goes ahead with SEA-BLR, then your can be almost certain that BLR-SFO on UA metal will come just months later.

As others have pointed out earlier, UA has no aircraft that makes the economics of such a long haul route like SFO-BLR work, which is also why the dropped LAX-SIN... SEA is pretty much the only major city in North America from where South India can be served profitably.

UA flies to SIN via SFO
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wedgetail737
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:38 pm

onwFan wrote:
AMALH747430 wrote:
ehaase wrote:
Do the experts think American should just give up on Trans Pacific routes, other than a few routes from DFW to the major Asian cities?


I think so. Long term, that’s the only Asia service that seems to have consistently worked for AA. They’ve tried India and East Asia from ORD, that didn’t work. They tried SJC several different ways (with their own domestic feed and partnering with QQ), that didn’t work. LAX appears to have not worked out either. They would probably be best served by doing the same thing they do in Asia that they do in Europe, hit the high points with their own metal from core hub(s) and concentrate on feed JLs network via Tokyo.

AA tried this same thing (using AS for Pacific feed) across the Atlantic before when they were losing market share at NYC and BOS. They tried using B6 (they even had a FF partnership) to feed their international networks. It “underperformed” according to both airlines and the strategy was abandoned.

To be fair, none of the previous scenarios are comparable at all to the current partnership.

1. From ORD, AA was trying to replicate the long haul network of a longer established and larger competitor UA. Every single of NRT, PEK and PVG was also flown by UA. There was no way AA could compete with AI’s ORD-DEL prices.
2. SJC was long back with not even the level of feed AS has at SEA. Plus UA at SFO competes for the exact same markets. So again trying to replicate UA’s established and profitable network.
3. AA and B6 partnership was not as conprehensive as this and there were many overlapping routes which were excluded from the partnership. And DL was an established and much larger competitor internationally and domestically (that was profitable?). B6 was in no way interested in competing with DL for TATL passengers

With AS, AA is simply doubling down on an established partnership with AS (a partner of 40+ yrs), which is twice as large as its competitor, which has not even established a profitable or expansive hub operation at SEA (DL). AS is equally interested in competing with DL for intl business customers and in joining AA’s alliance, which means they will share the FFs. AS has a purely West Coast operation and AA has no true hub in the West Coast, so both need each other. With travel going to start pretty much from scratch, there is no better opportunity than this to catch DL at its weakest in SEA. Plus, they are putting in very little investment into this... So, backing out of TPAC at this juncture is simply like making DL’s dream come true.


I don't know if I would call it a "bad" thing, but for folks that are flying AA overseas and making connections at SEA will have to take the train from the A-concourse end of the airport to concourses C, D and N concourses, which is on the opposite end. But a short tram ride makes it pretty easy. The CS agents just need to be clear where to send connecting pax.
 
onwFan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:36 pm

stl07 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
acavpics wrote:
If AA goes ahead with SEA-BLR, then your can be almost certain that BLR-SFO on UA metal will come just months later.

As others have pointed out earlier, UA has no aircraft that makes the economics of such a long haul route like SFO-BLR work, which is also why the dropped LAX-SIN... SEA is pretty much the only major city in North America from where South India can be served profitably.

UA flies to SIN via SFO

I know, but they shortly flew LAX-SIN before moving it as well to SFO due to the aforementioned reasons.
 
onwFan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:40 pm

bigb wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
onwFan wrote:
acavpics wrote:
If AA goes ahead with SEA-BLR, then your can be almost certain that BLR-SFO on UA metal will come just months later.

As others have pointed out earlier, UA has no aircraft that makes the economics of such a long haul route like SFO-BLR work, which is also why the dropped LAX-SIN... SEA is pretty much the only major city in North America from where South India can be served profitably.


I surely I hope you meant DL does have the A/C. UA and AA LH fleet mirrors each other with 787s and 777s

It was actually SFO-BLR, not SEA-BLR that @acavpics was suggesting on UA metal...
 
kavok
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:11 am

One big aspect that is getting overlooked, it the ability for AA/AS to finally be competitive for business travelers in the Mountain West.

Take a business pax in Boise for example. Previously AS was a great airline for any flights going from Boise to a state bordering the Pacific Ocean. Going eastward from Boise though, AS was an awful choice. Conversely for that same pax in Boise, AA provided options to go East, but AA was very limited if you wanted to go west.

For that reason, a Boise pax would likely stay away from both AA and AS in terms of developing loyalty. This merger changes that, as that Boise pax now has options to go East or West. Never underestimate the small and midsize markets in the middle. On their own they may not be much, but collectively they can produce good money.
 
ASFlyer
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:03 am

kavok wrote:
One big aspect that is getting overlooked, it the ability for AA/AS to finally be competitive for business travelers in the Mountain West.

Take a business pax in Boise for example. Previously AS was a great airline for any flights going from Boise to a state bordering the Pacific Ocean. Going eastward from Boise though, AS was an awful choice. Conversely for that same pax in Boise, AA provided options to go East, but AA was very limited if you wanted to go west.

For that reason, a Boise pax would likely stay away from both AA and AS in terms of developing loyalty. This merger changes that, as that Boise pax now has options to go East or West. Never underestimate the small and midsize markets in the middle. On their own they may not be much, but collectively they can produce good money.


In the same way someone would go from the west coast to DFW on AA to get to, say, MCI - or go from the west coast to ATL on DL to get to, say, BOS - many people connect daily on AS in SEA from BOI to points south and east.
 
USAirALB
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 3:27 am

Honestly, at this point in time I think that AA needs to focus it's strengths on where they clearly perform well, and unfortunately that isn't in Asia. The DFW-Asia flights work, but for many areas of the country DFW is simply too far south to be a proper Asian hub. AA sadly just does have any good options for serving Asia. MIA obviously won't work. ORD has too much competition from both UA and other Asian carriers. PHX/CLT have essentially no local market, and CLT isn't geographically great (see MIA). PHL would be good from a geographical perspective, but doesn't have enough local demand either. LAX has the local market, but is situated too far Southwest for connections, and has a ton of competition, especially from Asian carriers.

All that's left is DFW, which has shown to work. Before all of this happened, I had hoped that one day AA would launch SIN/TPE/ICN ex LAX but I doubt it is likely that we would ever see any of those routes come to fruition at this point.

Frankly I don't see AA doing West Coast-China routes in the long run. It's simply too cut throat and a waste of resources. I do believe that they will make another attempt at LAX-HKG. There isn't as much competition and it's a relatively premium market. I am willing to bet either DL and/or UA also call it quits on LAX-PVG in the future. IIRC, I recently saw a document that said LAX-HKG had higher loads than DFW-HKG, so I am guessing the yields might not have been great or bookings went way down due to the situation in HKG combined with COVID.

For a good number of cities in the country, even medium sized ones, it's impossible for folks to get to Asia without making a double connection, which simply isn't acceptable for high-yielding traffic. Cities like ALB/PVD are cut off from accessing AA's Asian network without a one-stop. SEA isn't going to fix that, but frankly neither will keeping the levels of service at LAX.

I do think it would likely be in AA's benefit to launch PHL-NRT in the future (on AA or JL metal) and I think somehow abandoning LAX somewhat increases the likelihood of that happening IMO.
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stl07
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:15 am

onwFan wrote:
stl07 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
As others have pointed out earlier, UA has no aircraft that makes the economics of such a long haul route like SFO-BLR work, which is also why the dropped LAX-SIN... SEA is pretty much the only major city in North America from where South India can be served profitably.

UA flies to SIN via SFO

I know, but they shortly flew LAX-SIN before moving it as well to SFO due to the aforementioned reasons.

Oh yea, I totally forgot about that being the reason why they moved it and just assumed it was for another reason like being at a bigger hub. Thanks for reminding me
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Detroit313
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:48 pm

Hopefully within the next 4-5 years AA and Alaska will merge and this relationship is just the beginning of that.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:56 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
Hopefully within the next 4-5 years AA and Alaska will merge and this relationship is just the beginning of that.


Hopefully, AS will NOT be merged into AA. That would be a detriment to the PNW and the State of Alaska. We all know AA would take Alaska's network and tear it apart. The State of Alaska would have a massive hissy-fit and probably do anything in their power to prevent a merger from happening. Alaska provides essential freight and logistics within the State and AA will not have any of that.
 
SESGDL
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:52 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
Hopefully within the next 4-5 years AA and Alaska will merge and this relationship is just the beginning of that.


Why would anyone advocate for fewer airlines?

Jeremy
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:01 pm

I still vote for a strong interline agreement with JetBlue. And the two of them to offer decent terms to any small regional connecting flyover country to their hubs/stations.
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kavok
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:30 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
Hopefully within the next 4-5 years AA and Alaska will merge and this relationship is just the beginning of that.


Hopefully, AS will NOT be merged into AA. That would be a detriment to the PNW and the State of Alaska. We all know AA would take Alaska's network and tear it apart. The State of Alaska would have a massive hissy-fit and probably do anything in their power to prevent a merger from happening. Alaska provides essential freight and logistics within the State and AA will not have any of that.


Regardless if they merge or not, their networks are starting to somewhat operate like a merged company.

AA is able to take advantage of the AS network up and down the west coast, as use that to finally drop a bunch of money losing routes that were flown only for domestic connectivity. AS finally gets some needed international routes, as well as a network connecting to mid and small sized cities in the East. Basically both airlines are getting what they need, and as such are able to drop some money losing routes knowing the other airline provides that service.

Expect further reductions on routes that both AA and AS serve. Especially on routes from PHX and LAX to mid or smaller sized west coast cities.
 
flyfresno
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:38 pm

kavok wrote:
Expect further reductions on routes that both AA and AS serve. Especially on routes from PHX and LAX to mid or smaller sized west coast cities.


AS just announced FAT-LAX...are you say AA will reduce?
 
wedgetail737
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:44 pm

Also, I hope AS doesn't start shuttering some of their eastward destinations because of AA.
 
United1
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:44 pm

onwFan wrote:
acavpics wrote:
If AA goes ahead with SEA-BLR, then your can be almost certain that BLR-SFO on UA metal will come just months later.

As others have pointed out earlier, UA has no aircraft that makes the economics of such a long haul route like SFO-BLR work, which is also why the dropped LAX-SIN... SEA is pretty much the only major city in North America from where South India can be served profitably.


SEA may be the only major city in North America where AA can, potentially, profitably serve Southern India. It may not be the best choice for other airlines though...ie EWR-BLR is actually shorter than SFO-SIN so theoretically it's doable without much in the way of penalties.
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kavok
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:59 pm

flyfresno wrote:
kavok wrote:
Expect further reductions on routes that both AA and AS serve. Especially on routes from PHX and LAX to mid or smaller sized west coast cities.


AS just announced FAT-LAX...are you say AA will reduce?


Good example, and yes that is type of market I expect AA will reduce or exit. As a rough boundary, I am referring to small or midsized markets west of Interstate 15 (from PHX/LAX). I still expect AA to keep most of their destinations to the East (even if midsized). I don’t have a crystal ball or inside info, so can’t say for sure, but it is probably more of a situation that FAT is too big a market to not be accessible by the AA market, but too small a market to generate much profit on intra-west coast service. The alliance with AS allied this market to continue to be served on an AA ticket. And if AS can serve it and profit, why should AA continue to operate it? That is my speculation at least.
 
acavpics
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:33 pm

kavok wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
kavok wrote:
Expect further reductions on routes that both AA and AS serve. Especially on routes from PHX and LAX to mid or smaller sized west coast cities.


AS just announced FAT-LAX...are you say AA will reduce?


Good example, and yes that is type of market I expect AA will reduce or exit. As a rough boundary, I am referring to small or midsized markets west of Interstate 15 (from PHX/LAX). I still expect AA to keep most of their destinations to the East (even if midsized). I don’t have a crystal ball or inside info, so can’t say for sure, but it is probably more of a situation that FAT is too big a market to not be accessible by the AA market, but too small a market to generate much profit on intra-west coast service. The alliance with AS allied this market to continue to be served on an AA ticket. And if AS can serve it and profit, why should AA continue to operate it? That is my speculation at least.


So does this mean that in the future, we can expect AA to shift focus to long hauls out of SEA/LAX while AS will do more of the domestic/short haul flying?

If this is the case, I wonder if AA will sell or lease some narrow-bodies to AS. Would it reduce costs if Alaska operated a chunk of the 737s and non-transcon A320 family jets that AA has?
 
AMALH747430
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:54 pm

Folks this isn’t a merger or a JV. It’s a simple code share with a (future) alliance member that requires (per US law) the companies to deal at arm’s length. If AA and AS start coordinating pricing, schedules, or which routes to start/end they’ll get a knock on the door from the DOJ. Additionally, the DOJ has previously required AA/AS to stop code sharing on certain routes. They may have something to say about this current setup too.

This setup hasn’t worked long term (especially for AA) in the past and its probably not going to work this time. This is AA grasping at straws because their last (I’ve lost count of how many) attempts to start a TPAC hub haven’t worked.

kavok wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
Expect further reductions on routes that both AA and AS serve. Especially on routes from PHX and LAX to mid or smaller sized west coast cities.
 
kavok
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:44 am

AMALH747430 wrote:
Folks this isn’t a merger or a JV. It’s a simple code share with a (future) alliance member that requires (per US law) the companies to deal at arm’s length. If AA and AS start coordinating pricing, schedules, or which routes to start/end they’ll get a knock on the door from the DOJ. Additionally, the DOJ has previously required AA/AS to stop code sharing on certain routes. They may have something to say about this current setup too.

This setup hasn’t worked long term (especially for AA) in the past and its probably not going to work this time. This is AA grasping at straws because their last (I’ve lost count of how many) attempts to start a TPAC hub haven’t worked.

kavok wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:


Agreed, but arguably the success of both is tied to how compatible AA and AS are together. Pre-mergers, Northwest and Continental used to be very compatible in the old SkyTeam days. It can happen, even if there is no communication and official coordination.

To provide an example, take the market of Eugene, Oregon. There probably aren’t too many AA frequent flyers based in Eugene, as AA offered the least amount of 1-stop domestic connections of the US3 (preCovid). That being said, Eugene is also a market that is too important to be inaccessible on AA. So AA likely felt compelled to offer a flight to EUG from somewhere, and LAX/PHX provided the best options for AA. LAX-EUG itself probably doesn’t generate much profit for AA, but again, AA felt compelled to serve it such that AA frequent flyers from elsewhere could still get there.

Enter in the AS codeshare. Now a potentially unprofitable route to Eugene no longer has to be flown, as AA can simply route people there via AS. And while AS doesn’t fly LAX-EUG, it doesn’t take an illegal phone call to realize a LAX-EUG flight on AS metal might make sense, especially since there are probably a decent number of AS frequent flyers in EUG. So AS could add LAX-EUG, and later AA could drop it, and both end up better financially. There likely are a decent number of AS frequent flyers in Eugene anyway, and with the AA onward connections from LAX now available, EUG-LAX on AS might work financially now.

Now you are absolutely correct that AA & AS are not allowed to legally coordinate that in any shape or form. So the success of this codeshare will be determined on how well the two airlines can read each other. But I will also add, Covid is a great excuse for AA to drop many of these such routes come Oct 1st. If AS can see the benefit of adding LAX, and AA is willing to cede the route, there could be success. AS can’t be too greedy though either. If that fine tuned (uncoordinated) give-and-take doesn’t happen, and AS and AA start competing with each other, the codeshare benefits fall apart. I suspect we will see more domestic adds like FAT-LAX (maybe EUG-LAX?) on AS. And I think AA is smart enough to respond by dropping the route. But time will tell.
Last edited by kavok on Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
kavok
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:50 am

acavpics wrote:
kavok wrote:
flyfresno wrote:

AS just announced FAT-LAX...are you say AA will reduce?


Good example, and yes that is type of market I expect AA will reduce or exit. As a rough boundary, I am referring to small or midsized markets west of Interstate 15 (from PHX/LAX). I still expect AA to keep most of their destinations to the East (even if midsized). I don’t have a crystal ball or inside info, so can’t say for sure, but it is probably more of a situation that FAT is too big a market to not be accessible by the AA market, but too small a market to generate much profit on intra-west coast service. The alliance with AS allied this market to continue to be served on an AA ticket. And if AS can serve it and profit, why should AA continue to operate it? That is my speculation at least.


So does this mean that in the future, we can expect AA to shift focus to long hauls out of SEA/LAX while AS will do more of the domestic/short haul flying?

If this is the case, I wonder if AA will sell or lease some narrow-bodies to AS. Would it reduce costs if Alaska operated a chunk of the 737s and non-transcon A320 family jets that AA has?


Unsure, but the optics of selling planes to accomplish that might look too risqué for the government. But never say never.
 
tphuang
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:21 am

I think it's quite logical for AA to be leaving a lot of these shorter west coast market to AS. I don't expect all of them, but it will exit out of some smaller ones where it simply has not been competitive. At the same time, AS has already exited a bunch of transcons out of LAX and I'd expect them to have very few left by the end of this, maybe just DCA. Sure, they can't JV, but OW is great. Unlike UA/DL, you can earn AA elite status without ever flying on AA. Someone out of LA may chose to have AA ff and use AS for all the short haul stuff. And that would still enable that person to get upgrades on transcon or international flights with AA and other OW carriers.

It does seem like AS will see a downgrade in SFO. It will probably fall below LAX in importance after this. I think there will be some real ramifications here. I think you will see AS exist some of the remaining tougher transcon or mid-con market that it had continued to serve throughout the past few years in order to maintain its network out of SFO. If it now sees LAX as more important than SFO, I can see it exiting markets like JFK/EWR/ORD/IAD/BOS-SFO.
 
jplatts
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:10 pm

tphuang wrote:
It does seem like AS will see a downgrade in SFO. It will probably fall below LAX in importance after this. I think there will be some real ramifications here. I think you will see AS exist some of the remaining tougher transcon or mid-con market that it had continued to serve throughout the past few years in order to maintain its network out of SFO. If it now sees LAX as more important than SFO, I can see it exiting markets like JFK/EWR/ORD/IAD/BOS-SFO.


I agree that AS making cuts at SFO is a possibility, not only due to AS joining oneworld, but also due to UA hub at SFO, WN focus cities at OAK and SJC, and UA having nonstop service out of SFO to all of the markets that AS serves nonstop from SFO.

Both JL and CX in the oneworld alliance also already serve SEA, and JL and CX can offer more connections at SEA than it can at SFO with AS having nonstop service out of SEA to more destinations than it does out of SFO.
 
kavok
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:27 am

So, why would an AA passenger want to connect to SEA for a TPAC flight unless it is a unique destination (i.e. BLR which is only offered nonstop from SEA)?

Using PVG as an example, why would any AA passengers chose to connect in SEA? If you lived in LAX, ORD, or DFW you can fly direct (on AA or someone else). If you live in CLT, PHL, or MIA, you can connect in ORD which is much more geographically favorable over SEA (granted the ORD-PVG nonstop is on another airline).

I guess that leaves PHX, but that’s it. Otherwise people connecting in SEA are doing it because it is 1) cheaper (less profits for AA), 2) AA frequent flyers going out of their way to earn status, or 3) AS flyers connecting.

My point is any SEA flight by AA to PVG, PEK, NRT, ICN, or HND only make sense for 1) AS flyers, 2) Seattle OD, or 3) PHX. It just seems like AA’s TPAC additions from SEA are basically glorified charters for AS.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:40 am

kavok wrote:
So, why would an AA passenger want to connect to SEA for a TPAC flight unless it is a unique destination (i.e. BLR which is only offered nonstop from SEA)?

Using PVG as an example, why would any AA passengers chose to connect in SEA? If you lived in LAX, ORD, or DFW you can fly direct (on AA or someone else). If you live in CLT, PHL, or MIA, you can connect in ORD which is much more geographically favorable over SEA (granted the ORD-PVG nonstop is on another airline).

I guess that leaves PHX, but that’s it. Otherwise people connecting in SEA are doing it because it is 1) cheaper (less profits for AA), 2) AA frequent flyers going out of their way to earn status, or 3) AS flyers connecting.

My point is any SEA flight by AA to PVG, PEK, NRT, ICN, or HND only make sense for 1) AS flyers, 2) Seattle OD, or 3) PHX. It just seems like AA’s TPAC additions from SEA are basically glorified charters for AS.


Unless those other flights are full. SEA could be a pressure-relief transfer point too.
 
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AAlaxfan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:55 am

kavok wrote:
So, why would an AA passenger want to connect to SEA for a TPAC flight unless it is a unique destination (i.e. BLR which is only offered nonstop from SEA)?

Using PVG as an example, why would any AA passengers chose to connect in SEA? If you lived in LAX, ORD, or DFW you can fly direct (on AA or someone else). If you live in CLT, PHL, or MIA, you can connect in ORD which is much more geographically favorable over SEA (granted the ORD-PVG nonstop is on another airline).

I guess that leaves PHX, but that’s it. Otherwise people connecting in SEA are doing it because it is 1) cheaper (less profits for AA), 2) AA frequent flyers going out of their way to earn status, or 3) AS flyers connecting.

My point is any SEA flight by AA to PVG, PEK, NRT, ICN, or HND only make sense for 1) AS flyers, 2) Seattle OD, or 3) PHX. It just seems like AA’s TPAC additions from SEA are basically glorified charters for AS.

Well it's nice that you are talking about the people that live in or near the AA hub cities. But for the people that live in, oh let's say, BOI, PDX, RNO, SJC, LAS and other cities west of the Rockies, are you going to backtrack to LAX or DFW for your connection?
Grumpy. Not a dwarf, not an attitude. It's a lifestyle.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3520
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:58 am

kavok wrote:
So, why would an AA passenger want to connect to SEA for a TPAC flight unless it is a unique destination (i.e. BLR which is only offered nonstop from SEA)?

I guess that leaves PHX, but that’s it. Otherwise people connecting in SEA are doing it because it is 1) cheaper (less profits for AA), 2) AA frequent flyers going out of their way to earn status, or 3) AS flyers connecting.

My point is any SEA flight by AA to PVG, PEK, NRT, ICN, or HND only make sense for 1) AS flyers, 2) Seattle OD, or 3) PHX. It just seems like AA’s TPAC additions from SEA are basically glorified charters for AS.


It actually does make sense for AA FF's in non-AA hub markets west of the Mississippi River to fly on AS to SEA and connect onto JL SEA-NRT or CX SEA-HKG flights with SEA being in a better geographical location than LAX or DFW for connections to Asia from most contiguous U.S. AS destinations west of the Mississippi River.

I had also previously mentioned JL adding SEA-KIX and SEA-HND nonstop service as a possibility with JL having significant connecting feed from AS flights to support SEA-KIX/HND nonstop service on JL. In addition, I had also previously mentioned that there are some business ties between the Keihanshin (Osaka/Kyoto/Kobe) region and the contiguous U.S. to support SEA-KIX nonstop service on JL.

JL would also have advantages over DL on SEA-KIX if it adds SEA-KIX nonstop service due to (a) the JL-AS partnership, (b) JL having stronger Japanese point-of-sale than DL, and (c) JL being able to offer connections to more destinations from KIX through SEA than DL.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5193
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:34 am

Remember AA can't expand too much with their own metal considering they only have 4 to 5 narrowbody gates in D-Concourse. Even with the added overseas gates at AA, it's still going to be slim-pickin's. So AA will have to work with AS to make SEA work.
 
onwFan
Posts: 432
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:33 am

kavok wrote:
So, why would an AA passenger want to connect to SEA for a TPAC flight unless it is a unique destination (i.e. BLR which is only offered nonstop from SEA)?

Using PVG as an example, why would any AA passengers chose to connect in SEA? If you lived in LAX, ORD, or DFW you can fly direct (on AA or someone else). If you live in CLT, PHL, or MIA, you can connect in ORD which is much more geographically favorable over SEA (granted the ORD-PVG nonstop is on another airline).

I guess that leaves PHX, but that’s it. Otherwise people connecting in SEA are doing it because it is 1) cheaper (less profits for AA), 2) AA frequent flyers going out of their way to earn status, or 3) AS flyers connecting.

My point is any SEA flight by AA to PVG, PEK, NRT, ICN, or HND only make sense for 1) AS flyers, 2) Seattle OD, or 3) PHX. It just seems like AA’s TPAC additions from SEA are basically glorified charters for AS.

Soon AS flyers will join AA’s extended pool of OW flyers. AS has the largest FF base in the PNW, not to mention the large following all along the west coast. Till now, these fliers would have chosen DL because they were the only one offering nonstops to Asia. AA’s flights now solve the dilemma for them, offering them the most needed options to business hubs like TYO, PVG, HKG, SEA and BLR. With AS offering double the no. of destinations from SEA along with combined with full earn and burn on AS/AA, the choice for fliers is simple. Thus, it is all about combining AA/AS FFs in Western US and providing them with an option to Asia, benefitting both & remove the advantage DL had in the market.

Plus, irrespective of whether it is an AS FF or an AA FF, AA would earn a lion’s share of the revenue on the long haul segment. And AS would also get its share from all those connections. It is a win-win for them and all their FFs in the west coast, however you want to look. It is not about providing options for just flyers in AA hubs. FFs in eastern US cities can continue connecting through DFW.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 382
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:47 am

AAlaxfan wrote:
kavok wrote:
So, why would an AA passenger want to connect to SEA for a TPAC flight unless it is a unique destination (i.e. BLR which is only offered nonstop from SEA)?

Using PVG as an example, why would any AA passengers chose to connect in SEA? If you lived in LAX, ORD, or DFW you can fly direct (on AA or someone else). If you live in CLT, PHL, or MIA, you can connect in ORD which is much more geographically favorable over SEA (granted the ORD-PVG nonstop is on another airline).

I guess that leaves PHX, but that’s it. Otherwise people connecting in SEA are doing it because it is 1) cheaper (less profits for AA), 2) AA frequent flyers going out of their way to earn status, or 3) AS flyers connecting.

My point is any SEA flight by AA to PVG, PEK, NRT, ICN, or HND only make sense for 1) AS flyers, 2) Seattle OD, or 3) PHX. It just seems like AA’s TPAC additions from SEA are basically glorified charters for AS.

Well it's nice that you are talking about the people that live in or near the AA hub cities. But for the people that live in, oh let's say, BOI, PDX, RNO, SJC, LAS and other cities west of the Rockies, are you going to backtrack to LAX or DFW for your connection?


Not even so much those cities as places like CHS, PIT, etc... I would much rather fly 4-5 hours across the US to reduce my TPAC leg by 2-3 hours than connect via DFW. That’s what this really opens the door to. With AA clearly backtracking on anything Asia outside of DFW, SEA makes all the more sense. Relying on the AS feed is a very smart idea
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5193
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:05 am

onwFan wrote:
kavok wrote:
So, why would an AA passenger want to connect to SEA for a TPAC flight unless it is a unique destination (i.e. BLR which is only offered nonstop from SEA)?

Using PVG as an example, why would any AA passengers chose to connect in SEA? If you lived in LAX, ORD, or DFW you can fly direct (on AA or someone else). If you live in CLT, PHL, or MIA, you can connect in ORD which is much more geographically favorable over SEA (granted the ORD-PVG nonstop is on another airline).

I guess that leaves PHX, but that’s it. Otherwise people connecting in SEA are doing it because it is 1) cheaper (less profits for AA), 2) AA frequent flyers going out of their way to earn status, or 3) AS flyers connecting.

My point is any SEA flight by AA to PVG, PEK, NRT, ICN, or HND only make sense for 1) AS flyers, 2) Seattle OD, or 3) PHX. It just seems like AA’s TPAC additions from SEA are basically glorified charters for AS.

Soon AS flyers will join AA’s extended pool of OW flyers. AS has the largest FF base in the PNW, not to mention the large following all along the west coast. Till now, these fliers would have chosen DL because they were the only one offering nonstops to Asia. AA’s flights now solve the dilemma for them, offering them the most needed options to business hubs like TYO, PVG, HKG, SEA and BLR. With AS offering double the no. of destinations from SEA along with combined with full earn and burn on AS/AA, the choice for fliers is simple. Thus, it is all about combining AA/AS FFs in Western US and providing them with an option to Asia, benefitting both & remove the advantage DL had in the market.

Plus, irrespective of whether it is an AS FF or an AA FF, AA would earn a lion’s share of the revenue on the long haul segment. And AS would also get its share from all those connections. It is a win-win for them and all their FFs in the west coast, however you want to look. It is not about providing options for just flyers in AA hubs. FFs in eastern US cities can continue connecting through DFW.


I would have to disagree just a little bit. I agree that probably the majority of the frequent fliers out of the PNW are with AS, but I don't think they all flocked to DL because of Asia. Many of AS FF fly on the many AS overseas partners like BA, FI, EK, KE, JL, SQ, HU and CX. However, I agree that the AA/AS hitch could work. But it's yet to be seen.
 
DTWLAX
Posts: 1073
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2009 4:19 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:10 am

onwFan wrote:
Till now, these fliers would have chosen DL because they were the only one offering nonstops to Asia.

That is not true. DL was not the only option for Asia.
Did you forget CX, JL, KE, etc.?
 
onwFan
Posts: 432
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:12 am

DTWLAX wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Till now, these fliers would have chosen DL because they were the only one offering nonstops to Asia.

That is not true. DL was not the only option for Asia.
Did you forget CX, JL, KE, etc.?

KE is essentially DL, and connects to DL domestically as well, removing any advantage for AS. I hope you realize that JL and CX were not present in the SEA market until as recently as a year ago - We haven’t probably seen the full effect of JL/CX/SQ entry on DL’s performance and how much TPAC SEA can sustain. Plus, my point was that DL was the only US carrier offering service to Asia from SEA (which had an advantage with US based fliers); and which is why AA launching Asia service was relevant.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2666
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: AA to make SEA an INT hub/launches SEA-BLR in Oct 20/AS to join OneWorld

Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:23 am

usflyer msp wrote:
I'm gonna guess SEA-BLR means LAX-China flights are not coming back.


Was going through the old posts and the first one on the third page was this... quite ironic.
 
roadrunner165
Posts: 873
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2000 6:28 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:08 am

Anyone have thoughts or insight on how AS joining OneWorld might impacts travel to the Philippines. I know the Philippines has low yields, but it seems like a big whole in AS's international offerings.

The State of Alaska has a fairly large Filipino population as does the pacific northwest.

The best option as far as Mileage Plan partners goes right now is Korean Air, but with AS joining OneWorld, I wonder how long that partnership will remain intact.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2666
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:38 am

Oneworld’s official press release/invitation for Alaska to join the alliance: https://www.oneworld.com/news/2020-07-2 ... ign=as2omc
 
User avatar
NameOmitted
Posts: 860
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:59 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:42 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Oneworld’s official press release/invitation for Alaska to join the alliance: https://www.oneworld.com/news/2020-07-2 ... ign=as2omc


"The airline’s wholly-owned regional subsidiary Horizon Air, as well as its regional partner SkyWest Airlines, will join as oneworld affiliate members at the same time."

SkyWest? Is this a formality for the aircraft under AS contract? I world think the only membership necessary world be the airline selling tickets under a capacity agreement.
 
Western727
Posts: 1765
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 12:38 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:52 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Oneworld’s official press release/invitation for Alaska to join the alliance: https://www.oneworld.com/news/2020-07-2 ... ign=as2omc


"The airline’s wholly-owned regional subsidiary Horizon Air, as well as its regional partner SkyWest Airlines, will join as oneworld affiliate members at the same time."

SkyWest? Is this a formality for the aircraft under AS contract? I world think the only membership necessary world be the airline selling tickets under a capacity agreement.


I share your interest in that one. Plus, as most of us know, Skywest also flies "for" *A and SkyTeam (UA and DL, respectively).
Jack @ AUS
 
onwFan
Posts: 432
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:17 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Oneworld’s official press release/invitation for Alaska to join the alliance: https://www.oneworld.com/news/2020-07-2 ... ign=as2omc


"The airline’s wholly-owned regional subsidiary Horizon Air, as well as its regional partner SkyWest Airlines, will join as oneworld affiliate members at the same time."

SkyWest? Is this a formality for the aircraft under AS contract? I world think the only membership necessary world be the airline selling tickets under a capacity agreement.

No, the operating carrier is also important. SkyWest will need to to attach the alliance logo on all their aircraft flying for AS, in addition to offering all the services that come along with it, and train employees accordingly.
 
sagechan
Posts: 352
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 6:14 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:40 pm

Western727 wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Oneworld’s official press release/invitation for Alaska to join the alliance: https://www.oneworld.com/news/2020-07-2 ... ign=as2omc


"The airline’s wholly-owned regional subsidiary Horizon Air, as well as its regional partner SkyWest Airlines, will join as oneworld affiliate members at the same time."

SkyWest? Is this a formality for the aircraft under AS contract? I world think the only membership necessary world be the airline selling tickets under a capacity agreement.


I share your interest in that one. Plus, as most of us know, Skywest also flies "for" *A and SkyTeam (UA and DL, respectively).


Skywest already flies as OW for AA. They'd have to extend the alliance training for OW to the AS only workgroups.
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User avatar
NameOmitted
Posts: 860
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:59 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:48 pm

So, who pays the OneWorld Connect dues? Does an OW carrier pay once for all of it's affiliated regionals? What sort of changes does new membership require for contracts with regional affiliates?

If AS were to enter into a capacity purchase with zombie Ravn for seats into DUT, World Ravn beef to become OW Connect?
 
Western727
Posts: 1765
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 12:38 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:53 pm

sagechan wrote:
Western727 wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:

"The airline’s wholly-owned regional subsidiary Horizon Air, as well as its regional partner SkyWest Airlines, will join as oneworld affiliate members at the same time."

SkyWest? Is this a formality for the aircraft under AS contract? I world think the only membership necessary world be the airline selling tickets under a capacity agreement.


I share your interest in that one. Plus, as most of us know, Skywest also flies "for" *A and SkyTeam (UA and DL, respectively).


Skywest already flies as OW for AA. They'd have to extend the alliance training for OW to the AS only workgroups.


Alliance training for the "AS only workgroups". Gotcha. Thanks!
Jack @ AUS

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