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jplatts
Posts: 3515
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:09 pm

JL could add SEA-KIX and SEA-HND nonstop service in order to better compete against DL in the Seattle, Tokyo, and Osaka markets since
(a) JL would be able to offer connections onto AS and AA domestic flights out of SEA from KIX and HND (and vice versa) if JL adds SEA-KIX and SEA-HND nonstop service,
(b) there are FF bases in both Japan and the U.S. to support SEA-KIX and SEA-HND nonstop service on JL, including JL's FF base in Japan, AS's FF base in Seattle, the Northwestern U.S., and California, and AA's FF base in the US, and
(c) JL adding SEA-KIX and SEA-HND nonstop service would allow JL to strengthen its relationship with AS.
 
TryToFlySomeday
Posts: 359
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:51 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:58 pm

I don't know if anyone's been saying this, but my guess is someone has said this. Some people may be assuming that if AS vanishes at SEA because of DL's competition knocking them off, that AS has no hope. That's not entirely true, although with this pandemic it certainly looks grimmer.

Remember, AS is one of the largest transporter of goods in Alaska and a big transporter of people there too. The ANC hub, along with the PDX hub that AS has a near-monopoly on, are still options to fall back on.

Although admittedly, SEA is much bigger than ANC and PDX.
Pakistani American born and raised near CHI (ORD/MDW). Relatives are from both India and Pakistan
 
winginit
Posts: 2849
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:34 pm

tphuang wrote:
Also keep in mind that by doing all on its own financing, DL won't have to subject itself to possible restrictions on employment level past Sep 30th. I think there is very real possibility that whoever takes the additional loans from federal gov't will have to make some kind of commitment on employment level until end of the year. Again, nothing preventing DL from significantly furloughing on Oct 1st if it raises enough money to survive on its own.


I believe that UA and AA have already tossed around the possibility publicly of asking the government for more money down the road, and I'm wondering if that were to happen if Delta might be setting themselves up to say "No no no. We're not asking for more money because we've operated an appropriate balance sheet, and these other carriers asking for more money are just proving that they've been mismanaged. We don't agree with more government funds - let them sort things out through bankruptcy"

Would be quite the play.

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
I don't know if anyone's been saying this, but my guess is someone has said this. Some people may be assuming that if AS vanishes at SEA because of DL's competition knocking them off, that AS has no hope. That's not entirely true, although with this pandemic it certainly looks grimmer.


AS it pretty well capitalized and not at all exposed to the international softness that will likely last for years. They're not going anywhere especially in SEA.

jplatts wrote:
JL could add SEA-KIX and SEA-HND nonstop service


Let's not kid ourselves here. No one is adding new international service for a long, long time.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4899
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:49 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
DL might consider concentrating on LAX...their competitors AA and UA are weakened and retrenching. Iit might be time to strike and have a true 'owner' of LAX. AS will fight to the death in SEA...will UA and AA in LAX? The only big money DL is really out in SEA is the cost of construction of their beautiful lounges. I can't think of much else they've had to pay for that wouldn't be normal needs such as gate signage, ticket counter refresh/expansion and office space. Port of Seattle is paying for the new FIS through future fees paid by the airlines. It's POS that is the loser if DL shrinks in SEA.

Delta OWNING LAX? You're kidding right? Delta couldn't OWN LAX any more than they could SFO! They can fly just as many pacific flights out of SFO as they can LAX and they have a pretty nice terminal to do it at as well. Their domestic terminal at SFO is just yards away from the International terminal at SFO and just as many gates as their LAX terminal. So? Because they couldn't BULLY Alaskan at SEA is something to run and Hide over? Maybe they should rethink their Game plan because they'll do No Better at LAX. But maybe they can bully people at SAN, SMF or PDX.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 140
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:53 pm

No need to talk about an AA / AS merger. It’s not happening any time soon. Airlines will not be in any type of financial position to merge. After 9/11, it took 4 years for the first merger because airlines were not in the financial shape to merge. This event is 10 times worse and businesses, the heart and soul of the airline industry, won’t be taking to the skies in meaningful numbers until a vaccine is found due to the liability associated with sending your employees on business trips with COVID-19.

Once the country is “opened up” the only ones traveling in any meaningful numbers will be those who want to take advantage of rock bottom fares - which airlines won’t make money from anyways. Everyone keeps making predictions based on what the airline industry looked like in the past. The future will look completely different. Air travel won’t return in any meaningful form until next year and with all that excess capacity, we will see a lot of liquidations. Hubs / alliances / networks will all look vastly different.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2223
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:13 am

strfyr51 wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
DL might consider concentrating on LAX...their competitors AA and UA are weakened and retrenching. Iit might be time to strike and have a true 'owner' of LAX. AS will fight to the death in SEA...will UA and AA in LAX? The only big money DL is really out in SEA is the cost of construction of their beautiful lounges. I can't think of much else they've had to pay for that wouldn't be normal needs such as gate signage, ticket counter refresh/expansion and office space. Port of Seattle is paying for the new FIS through future fees paid by the airlines. It's POS that is the loser if DL shrinks in SEA.

Delta OWNING LAX? You're kidding right? Delta couldn't OWN LAX any more than they could SFO! They can fly just as many pacific flights out of SFO as they can LAX and they have a pretty nice terminal to do it at as well. Their domestic terminal at SFO is just yards away from the International terminal at SFO and just as many gates as their LAX terminal. So? Because they couldn't BULLY Alaskan at SEA is something to run and Hide over? Maybe they should rethink their Game plan because they'll do No Better at LAX. But maybe they can bully people at SAN, SMF or PDX.


Geez no need to start yelling and screaming. Chill out, man.
 
onwFan
Posts: 430
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:36 am

winginit wrote:
I believe that UA and AA have already tossed around the possibility publicly of asking the government for more money down the road, and I'm wondering if that were to happen if Delta might be setting themselves up to say "No no no. We're not asking for more money because we've operated an appropriate balance sheet, and these other carriers asking for more money are just proving that they've been mismanaged. We don't agree with more government funds - let them sort things out through bankruptcy"

Would be quite the play.

Facilitating UA and AA into bankruptcy to emerging fortified through another round of mergers will only leave DL at a disadvantage.
 
winginit
Posts: 2849
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:43 am

hiflyeras wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
DL might consider concentrating on LAX...their competitors AA and UA are weakened and retrenching. Iit might be time to strike and have a true 'owner' of LAX. AS will fight to the death in SEA...will UA and AA in LAX? The only big money DL is really out in SEA is the cost of construction of their beautiful lounges. I can't think of much else they've had to pay for that wouldn't be normal needs such as gate signage, ticket counter refresh/expansion and office space. Port of Seattle is paying for the new FIS through future fees paid by the airlines. It's POS that is the loser if DL shrinks in SEA.

Delta OWNING LAX? You're kidding right? Delta couldn't OWN LAX any more than they could SFO! They can fly just as many pacific flights out of SFO as they can LAX and they have a pretty nice terminal to do it at as well. Their domestic terminal at SFO is just yards away from the International terminal at SFO and just as many gates as their LAX terminal. So? Because they couldn't BULLY Alaskan at SEA is something to run and Hide over? Maybe they should rethink their Game plan because they'll do No Better at LAX. But maybe they can bully people at SAN, SMF or PDX.


Geez no need to start yelling and screaming. Chill out, man.


Facility constraints are such that there can be no true owner of LAX. It's quite unique in that regard comparable really only to the competitive landscape of the combined JFK/LGA/EWR

onwFan wrote:
winginit wrote:
I believe that UA and AA have already tossed around the possibility publicly of asking the government for more money down the road, and I'm wondering if that were to happen if Delta might be setting themselves up to say "No no no. We're not asking for more money because we've operated an appropriate balance sheet, and these other carriers asking for more money are just proving that they've been mismanaged. We don't agree with more government funds - let them sort things out through bankruptcy"

Would be quite the play.

Facilitating UA and AA into bankruptcy to emerging fortified through another round of mergers will only leave DL at a disadvantage.


Maybe, but that same logic was used when CO/UA merged (that DL would be disadvantaged in being a first mover on the merger front) and then again when US and AA merged - that the carrier who more recently slimmed down in bankruptcy would be these undisputed global powerhouses who could command revenue premiums and pay down debt while Delta lagged behind...

... didn't really pan out did it.
 
onwFan
Posts: 430
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:20 am

winginit wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
Delta OWNING LAX? You're kidding right? Delta couldn't OWN LAX any more than they could SFO! They can fly just as many pacific flights out of SFO as they can LAX and they have a pretty nice terminal to do it at as well. Their domestic terminal at SFO is just yards away from the International terminal at SFO and just as many gates as their LAX terminal. So? Because they couldn't BULLY Alaskan at SEA is something to run and Hide over? Maybe they should rethink their Game plan because they'll do No Better at LAX. But maybe they can bully people at SAN, SMF or PDX.


Geez no need to start yelling and screaming. Chill out, man.


Facility constraints are such that there can be no true owner of LAX. It's quite unique in that regard comparable really only to the competitive landscape of the combined JFK/LGA/EWR

onwFan wrote:
winginit wrote:
I believe that UA and AA have already tossed around the possibility publicly of asking the government for more money down the road, and I'm wondering if that were to happen if Delta might be setting themselves up to say "No no no. We're not asking for more money because we've operated an appropriate balance sheet, and these other carriers asking for more money are just proving that they've been mismanaged. We don't agree with more government funds - let them sort things out through bankruptcy"

Would be quite the play.

Facilitating UA and AA into bankruptcy to emerging fortified through another round of mergers will only leave DL at a disadvantage.


Maybe, but that same logic was used when CO/UA merged (that DL would be disadvantaged in being a first mover on the merger front) and then again when US and AA merged - that the carrier who more recently slimmed down in bankruptcy would be these undisputed global powerhouses who could command revenue premiums and pay down debt while Delta lagged behind...

... didn't really pan out did it.

So maybe the converse is true? Haha... Either way, if DL is the last mover in the current scenario, they will only risk being be left out of options to merge. If DL remains significantly stronger than UA and AA and keep going after AS and B6, then the way forward for the 4 carriers should be pretty clear...
 
Corpsnerd09
Posts: 575
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2004 2:05 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:32 am

winginit wrote:
I believe that UA and AA have already tossed around the possibility publicly of asking the government for more money down the road, and I'm wondering if that were to happen if Delta might be setting themselves up to say "No no no. We're not asking for more money because we've operated an appropriate balance sheet, and these other carriers asking for more money are just proving that they've been mismanaged. We don't agree with more government funds - let them sort things out through bankruptcy"

Would be quite the play..


That would be insanely stupid of Delta. I mean, I know they're cocky but they'd be literally putting themselves into a PR nightmare as their competition continues getting more unencumbered support, they would have to hold back or risk looking like fools. Do you really think UA/AA/WN/AS/B6 etc are going to say yeah... there's money to be had, but if DL isn't taking any boy we sure shouldn't. Get out of here!

One major trend in all these threads is the fact people keep forgetting what we're dealing with here, this isn't 9/11, this isn't 2008, this is something 10x worse than both combined. Every carrier is going to be pushed into Chap 11 and some even Chap 7, the CEOs themselves are saying it every day. It doesn't matter how well run anyone was or wasn't before this pandemic, that will only buy them time not solvency. Once Chap 11 begins, everyone will be back to square one financially, and they better hope they have the right Upper Management Team with experience in dealing with restructuring debt and weather this storm. Forget whatever hub fights were happening before February of 2020... SEA, MIA, LA, CZ, BOS, JFK... it's not going to return to that for a while, maybe 5 or 10 years at worst. Every carrier will need to leverage its strengths and push toward them before they get into a dog fight with someone in a better position. The idea that DL will somehow prance around doing whatever it wants like a kid in the candy store because it had a better financial sheet in 2019 when everyone was making record profits is not realistic anymore and this entire crisis will be easier to swallow if people began to acknowledge that about any carrier; they will all be suffering, they are no longer the airlines they were last year. The only smart decisions from this point on will be the ones that aim to support the strong markets, policies, and flyers that the airlines were already successful with prior to all this and not any arm-chair CEO or fanboy wet dream. That is the reality... the ever swinging airline industry pendulum is heading back the other direction and we won't know what it will look after it's completed.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5060
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:53 am

onwFan wrote:
winginit wrote:
I believe that UA and AA have already tossed around the possibility publicly of asking the government for more money down the road, and I'm wondering if that were to happen if Delta might be setting themselves up to say "No no no. We're not asking for more money because we've operated an appropriate balance sheet, and these other carriers asking for more money are just proving that they've been mismanaged. We don't agree with more government funds - let them sort things out through bankruptcy"

Would be quite the play.

Facilitating UA and AA into bankruptcy to emerging fortified through another round of mergers will only leave DL at a disadvantage.


I thought for a while AA was in the worst position, but looking at UA's debt load and its coastal hub's reliance on TATL/TPAC flights, UA actually might be in a worse position through this. Of course, having Kirby instead of Parker running the show is probably UA's saving grace here. Either way, both airlines will likely be facing chapter 11. The problem is that even if UA/AA get out of some of the higher cost labour contracts, they will likely have to give up certain prized real estate that are losing money. Which DL can probably avoid at this point.

Also, DL is not in a good position here. They are in a better position than AA/UA, but they have higher risk than WN, B6, AS and G4 for sure. And coming out of this, they will be carrying significantly more debt than LCCs, which means they are going to have cut back on some of the adventures they got themselves into before coronavirus.

Again, the major advantage DL has here is that it can probably start furloughing on Oct 1 to really cut its labour costs. But by doing so, it will be quite a bit smaller coming out of this and alienate the labour groups that have thus far not unionized.
 
winginit
Posts: 2849
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:05 am

Corpsnerd09 wrote:
Every carrier is going to be pushed into Chap 11 and some even Chap 7, the CEOs themselves are saying it every day.


Uhm. No. Literally not one single CEO of a major US carrier has said that bankruptcy is a possible outcome. Doesn't mean it won't happen to a few carriers in the United States, but your assertion is incorrect.

Corpsnerd09 wrote:
It doesn't matter how well run anyone was or wasn't before this pandemic, that will only buy them time not solvency. Once Chap 11 begins, everyone will be back to square one financially, and they better hope they have the right Upper Management Team with experience in dealing with restructuring debt and weather this storm. Forget whatever hub fights were happening before February of 2020... SEA, MIA, LA, CZ, BOS, JFK... it's not going to return to that for a while, maybe 5 or 10 years at worst. Every carrier will need to leverage its strengths and push toward them before they get into a dog fight with someone in a better position. The idea that DL will somehow prance around doing whatever it wants like a kid in the candy store because it had a better financial sheet in 2019 when everyone was making record profits is not realistic anymore and this entire crisis will be easier to swallow if people began to acknowledge that about any carrier; they will all be suffering, they are no longer the airlines they were last year. The only smart decisions from this point on will be the ones that aim to support the strong markets, policies, and flyers that the airlines were already successful with prior to all this and not any arm-chair CEO or fanboy wet dream. That is the reality... the ever swinging airline industry pendulum is heading back the other direction and we won't know what it will look after it's completed.


and not one single industry analyst has painted a picture that even loosely resembles the picture you've painted above. Bankruptcies? Again, possible if not likely at this point. Further consolidation? Also possible. Every carrier being pushed into bankruptcy? Absurd.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3269
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:24 pm

tphuang wrote:
Also, DL is not in a good position here. They are in a better position than AA/UA, but they have higher risk than WN, B6, AS and G4 for sure.


Isn't G4's risk kind of high due to their reliance on package vacations/leisure travel that is likely to be the slowest to come back? Their target demographic seems more likely to have lost their disposable income through this as well, although I suppose they could look to pick up some passengers who previously chose to fly with higher-end carriers and are now looking for deals.

Either way, the fact that WN, B6, and AS aren't as exposed to intercontinental traffic and deal in a mix of leisure and business traffic has to help them some.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5060
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:46 pm

FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Also, DL is not in a good position here. They are in a better position than AA/UA, but they have higher risk than WN, B6, AS and G4 for sure.


Isn't G4's risk kind of high due to their reliance on package vacations/leisure travel that is likely to be the slowest to come back? Their target demographic seems more likely to have lost their disposable income through this as well, although I suppose they could look to pick up some passengers who previously chose to fly with higher-end carriers and are now looking for deals.

Either way, the fact that WN, B6, and AS aren't as exposed to intercontinental traffic and deal in a mix of leisure and business traffic has to help them some.


I think G4 is in a good position because they have a lot of cash vs their actual burn rate (especially since they are doing almost 0 flying right now). What I didn't realize is that their debt to equity ratio to be pretty terrible, so they probably can't borrow much more. But in a zero revenue environment, they can last a while. It also helps that F9 seems to have morphed from G4 strategy to more of a NK strategy based on the latest OAG thread. That's bad for NK and great for G4.

It also helps WN, B6 and AS that they had lower debt to equity ratio vs other carriers and more healthy cash position.
 
Tack
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:44 pm

TryToFlySomeday wrote:
I don't know if anyone's been saying this, but my guess is someone has said this. Some people may be assuming that if AS vanishes at SEA because of DL's competition knocking them off, that AS has no hope. That's not entirely true, although with this pandemic it certainly looks grimmer.

Remember, AS is one of the largest transporter of goods in Alaska and a big transporter of people there too. The ANC hub, along with the PDX hub that AS has a near-monopoly on, are still options to fall back on.

Although admittedly, SEA is much bigger than ANC and PDX.


I don't see AS going away. The management there is best when their backs are against the wall. While I was spending 35 years of my life there, it was a "love/hate" relationship with some of the decisions that they made. But the one constant, they have always been aggressive in keeping the company alive. They're currently flying 82 mainline jets. All the A319's and 9 unmodified A320's are parked and won't come back. I'd look for them to get rid of more mainline, I'd guess A320's, if they can dump leases, then 700's and older 800's then early model 9's. They will have to furlough, and have said as much. They've told employees that they are preparing for a very slow recovery and, in fact, will emerge much smaller. Their goal now is to get net cash flow to zero by the end of the year, which I believe they'll accomplish. They've insinuated that any growth, should some markets rebound faster, is with parked jets first and the MAX as needed. They've got a good plan and execution is a strength. As stated, I just don't see them going away, via BK or merger, anytime soon.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5060
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:51 pm

I think this is going to turn as back into all boeing mainline fleet.
 
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jakef
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2015 5:57 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:04 pm

I believe they may very well go back to single fleet. Interesting, many things people complain about Alaska is what will allow them to survive.
 
winginit
Posts: 2849
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:08 pm

tphuang wrote:
I think this is going to turn as back into all boeing mainline fleet.


jakef wrote:
I believe they may very well go back to single fleet. Interesting, many things people complain about Alaska is what will allow them to survive.


Such was their stated position even before coronavirus no? I'd thought they'd previously mentioned fully intending to eventually get rid of all the VX airbus frames.
 
Tack
Posts: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:13 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:31 am

winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think this is going to turn as back into all boeing mainline fleet.


jakef wrote:
I believe they may very well go back to single fleet. Interesting, many things people complain about Alaska is what will allow them to survive.


Such was their stated position even before coronavirus no? I'd thought they'd previously mentioned fully intending to eventually get rid of all the VX airbus frames.


Actually they hadn’t fully committed to going back to all Boeing. The rumors from the GO were that the A321NEO had a shot. I retired in late 2017, so the only inside info I’m getting is from the pilot group, and we know how reliable that is. All the employee and retiree info on the staff web site said they hadn’t made up their mind Pre COVID. From purely a passenger perspective, I was pulling for the bigger NEO to stay around in some kind of number. However, I believe this virus may have shot that dream down.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:46 am

Tack wrote:
Actually they hadn’t fully committed to going back to all Boeing. The rumors from the GO were that the A321NEO had a shot. I retired in late 2017, so the only inside info I’m getting is from the pilot group, and we know how reliable that is. All the employee and retiree info on the staff web site said they hadn’t made up their mind Pre COVID. From purely a passenger perspective, I was pulling for the bigger NEO to stay around in some kind of number. However, I believe this virus may have shot that dream down.


The latest, pre-COVID, was that the 737MAX9 and A321NEO were the contenders for the next aircraft order, which would be for 200 airframes. Obviously it's fair to say those plans are on hold, and right now the goal is to make the CARES Act funding stretch as far as possible so the company is in as strong a position as can be once a rebound occurs. I don't see the A321NEOs going anywhere but it's safe to say the A319s are done, so are any non-refurb'd A320s, and the 12-strong 737-900A fleet would be the next to go, if needed.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:15 am

EA CO AS wrote:
The latest, pre-COVID, was that the 737MAX9 and A321NEO were the contenders for the next aircraft order, which would be for 200 airframes.


Wow. You were not kidding when you were preparing us for jaw dropping news.
 
Tack
Posts: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:13 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:25 am

EA CO AS wrote:
Tack wrote:
Actually they hadn’t fully committed to going back to all Boeing. The rumors from the GO were that the A321NEO had a shot. I retired in late 2017, so the only inside info I’m getting is from the pilot group, and we know how reliable that is. All the employee and retiree info on the staff web site said they hadn’t made up their mind Pre COVID. From purely a passenger perspective, I was pulling for the bigger NEO to stay around in some kind of number. However, I believe this virus may have shot that dream down.


The latest, pre-COVID, was that the 737MAX9 and A321NEO were the contenders for the next aircraft order, which would be for 200 airframes. Obviously it's fair to say those plans are on hold, and right now the goal is to make the CARES Act funding stretch as far as possible so the company is in as strong a position as can be once a rebound occurs. I don't see the A321NEOs going anywhere but it's safe to say the A319s are done, so are any non-refurb'd A320s, and the 12-strong 737-900A fleet would be the next to go, if needed.



Help me here, I’ve been gone almost two years, but all the 700’s are owned yes? And how old is the oldest 800.- just under 20 years? Finally, I agree the early 9’s seem most likely to go. But how many Airbus are close to coming off lease? Thanks brother, appreciate the info. I’m glad I don’t have to deal with this craziness. Although if there’s any team that can not only survive, but come out stronger it’s the employees at AS. Cheers!
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:43 am

NameOmitted wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
The latest, pre-COVID, was that the 737MAX9 and A321NEO were the contenders for the next aircraft order, which would be for 200 airframes.


Wow. You were not kidding when you were preparing us for jaw dropping news.


That had actually leaked out, unfortunately, but wasn't even the biggest part of the 5 year plan. I'm guessing most of the plan can still be implemented, just on a much longer timetable.

Fingers crossed - for all airline employees everywhere - that the recovery is swift and we can all get back to growth mode.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
Detroit313
Posts: 538
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Tue May 19, 2020 2:47 pm

So, is Alaska joining oneworld as planned? By when? Summer of 2021?
 
hiflyeras
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Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Tue May 19, 2020 3:10 pm

Alaska still plans on joining OW and stated that they have people still working on the project.
 
gmcc
Posts: 332
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Tue May 19, 2020 6:05 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
The latest, pre-COVID, was that the 737MAX9 and A321NEO were the contenders for the next aircraft order, which would be for 200 airframes.


Wow. You were not kidding when you were preparing us for jaw dropping news.

Sort of tangential to this thread but maybe an interesting question. If they went with the A321 NEO, might AS consider going the containerized belly cargo route. I can see advantages from the freight side of AS but can also see disadvantages from the baggage service guaranty side as it might take longer to unload.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2653
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:58 pm

Alaska may join Oneworld by the end of 2020 instead of summer 2021.

https://www.travelcodex.com/review-of-f ... l+Codex%29
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5190
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:15 am

I wonder if AS will have to give up some of their current international alliances like SQ, FI and EK when they join OneWorld.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5190
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:17 am

I wonder if AS will have to give up some of their current international alliances like SQ, FI and EK when they join OneWorld.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3708
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:45 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
I wonder if AS will have to give up some of their current international alliances like SQ, FI and EK when they join OneWorld.


Probably not. OW is quite liberal about allowing extra-alliance partnerships. See QF/EK, JL/AY/SU, CX/LH/AC for examples.
 
onwFan
Posts: 430
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:35 am

usflyer msp wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
I wonder if AS will have to give up some of their current international alliances like SQ, FI and EK when they join OneWorld.


Probably not. OW is quite liberal about allowing extra-alliance partnerships. See QF/EK, JL/AY/SU, CX/LH/AC for examples.

Indeed. Just SQ and KE may need some kind of exception from Star and Sky if they want to retain the partnership with AS.
 
User avatar
NameOmitted
Posts: 854
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:59 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:09 am

This dovetails nicely with the AA international flights out of SEA from the AA Networking thread.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5190
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:19 pm

Is it OneWorld or OneWorld Connect?
 
kavok
Posts: 812
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:34 pm

onwFan wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
I wonder if AS will have to give up some of their current international alliances like SQ, FI and EK when they join OneWorld.


Probably not. OW is quite liberal about allowing extra-alliance partnerships. See QF/EK, JL/AY/SU, CX/LH/AC for examples.

Indeed. Just SQ and KE may need some kind of exception from Star and Sky if they want to retain the partnership with AS.


The irony is any pax buying an AS ticket flying a route that involves AS+KE... is indirectly partially profiting arch rival Delta, via the KE/DL JV. Going the other way, I’d be curious to know if a pax buying a KE ticket is directed to a DL connection over AS in SEA, or if both DL/AS are treated equally in the KE ticketing system.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26149
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:17 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
I wonder if AS will have to give up some of their current international alliances like SQ, FI and EK when they join OneWorld.


Nope, they won't.

And these days, that would put them under anti-trust scrutiny. For example, the Korean Air and Delta JBA included a condition that Delta cannot interfere with the Alaska/Korean relationship.
a.
 
cityshuttle
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2017 3:56 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:25 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
Is it OneWorld or OneWorld Connect?


AS will become a full member (if that was the question)
 
n7371f
Posts: 1801
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:49 am

100% incorrect. Not under this Admin.

And if AA doesn't demand divesture from competing allegiances, then they're idiots or desperate.

Of not AS arrogance in refusing to heed to DAL/Richard Anderson's arrogant demands that it leave 4 alliances competitive to Delta is similar.

MAH4546 wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
I wonder if AS will have to give up some of their current international alliances like SQ, FI and EK when they join OneWorld.


Nope, they won't.

And these days, that would put them under anti-trust scrutiny. For example, the Korean Air and Delta JBA included a condition that Delta cannot interfere with the Alaska/Korean relationship.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26149
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:43 am

n7371f wrote:
100% incorrect. Not under this Admin.

And if AA doesn't demand divesture from competing allegiances, then they're idiots or desperate.

Of not AS arrogance in refusing to heed to DAL/Richard Anderson's arrogant demands that it leave 4 alliances competitive to Delta is similar.

MAH4546 wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
I wonder if AS will have to give up some of their current international alliances like SQ, FI and EK when they join OneWorld.


Nope, they won't.

And these days, that would put them under anti-trust scrutiny. For example, the Korean Air and Delta JBA included a condition that Delta cannot interfere with the Alaska/Korean relationship.


You’re wrong. Won’t debate it further. You’re just wrong.
a.
 
AMALH747430
Posts: 195
Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2014 9:29 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:58 pm

I'm very skeptical of AA's plan here. The US legacy (big 3) with the worst balance sheet and worst operational performance is going to try to go head to head with the US legacy with the best balance sheet and best operational performance, all while depending on a codeshare partner (and maybe future alliance member) that they'll have to deal at arm's length with... AS is a good airline with great SEA feed. However, AA and AS will not be able to coordinate pricing and schedules. AA will also have to deal with AS having other competing long haul partners out of SEA. Meanwhile, on the connecting front, they'll also have to deal with UA's SFO hub, the undisputed TPAC leader. Both DL and UA have the ability to control the pricing, scheduling, and timing of their domestic feed. AA won't be able to do that.

I don't see how this ends any differently that AA's other TPAC follies. First it was SJC with their own metal, then with a QQ codeshare (sound familiar), finally they bought QQ, dismantled the network, and skedaddled. Then it was going to be ORD. That got dismantled recently. Then it was going to be LAX. Now we're seeing that being wound down. The only thing Asia they seem to be able to make work is DFW.

AA seems to be grasping at straws here. They haven't been able to make anything else work so now they're trying to make SEA a thing during an unprecedented period of depressed international travel demand. Now we're hearing AA say they're going to focus on their "strategic hubs." We've heard that before... They squandered their position in New York, now they're doing the same thing at LAX. Vasu Raja and Doug Parker seem to be real good at grand visions (saying AA will never lose money again) and throwing shade at competitors that run circles around them (Raja's "yesterday's genius" comment), but not so good at delivering. As the saying down here in Texas goes "all hat, no cattle."

On AS’ end, AA is their last option after they parted with DL. UA doesn’t need AS as they have their own TPAC hub with massive domestic feed. The problem is they have hitched their wagon to an airline with a poor track record on these things.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:27 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
I wonder if AS will have to give up some of their current international alliances like SQ, FI and EK when they join OneWorld.


Nope, they won't.

And these days, that would put them under anti-trust scrutiny. For example, the Korean Air and Delta JBA included a condition that Delta cannot interfere with the Alaska/Korean relationship.


Where was this? I don't recall ever hearing about that condition.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3515
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:57 pm

AMALH747430 wrote:
I'm very skeptical of AA's plan here. The US legacy (big 3) with the worst balance sheet and worst operational performance is going to try to go head to head with the US legacy with the best balance sheet and best operational performance, all while depending on a codeshare partner (and maybe future alliance member) that they'll have to deal at arm's length with... AS is a good airline with great SEA feed. However, AA and AS will not be able to coordinate pricing and schedules. AA will also have to deal with AS having other competing long haul partners out of SEA. Meanwhile, on the connecting front, they'll also have to deal with UA's SFO hub, the undisputed TPAC leader. Both DL and UA have the ability to control the pricing, scheduling, and timing of their domestic feed. AA won't be able to do that.


AMALH747430 wrote:
On AS’ end, AA is their last option after they parted with DL. UA doesn’t need AS as they have their own TPAC hub with massive domestic feed. The problem is they have hitched their wagon to an airline with a poor track record on these things.


AS also already has partnerships with JL, BA, CX, and QF in the oneworld alliance, and JL, BA, and CX all already serve SEA, SFO, and LAX. QF also already serves both SFO and LAX.

There are also connecting opportunities available onto JL, BA, CX, and QF flights from AS flights, including:
  • Connections onto BA SEA-LHR and PDX-LHR flights from the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, British Columbia, and Hawaii
  • Connections onto JL SEA-NRT, SFO-TYO, and SAN-NRT flights from AS destinations in the Contiguous U.S., Western Canada, and Mexico
  • Connections onto CX SEA-HKG and SFO-HKG flights from AS destinations in the Contiguous U.S., Western Canada, and Mexico
  • Connections onto QF SFO-BNE/MEL/SYD flights from AS destinations in the Contiguous U.S. and Mexico that have nonstop service to SFO on AS
 
onwFan
Posts: 430
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:18 pm

AMALH747430 wrote:
On AS’ end, AA is their last option after they parted with DL. UA doesn’t need AS as they have their own TPAC hub with massive domestic feed. The problem is they have hitched their wagon to an airline with a poor track record on these things.

LOL... Actually very wise of AS that they refused to jump into the pit dug by DL - they were able to retain, and add far better partners in OW, in terms of quality and destinations. Or else they would also have ended up with nothing but a whole bunch of bankrupt partners.
 
Detroit313
Posts: 538
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:17 pm

Oneworld offers a lot to Alaska. SkyTeam was irrelevant to Seattle and Alaska.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5060
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:30 pm

Hard to see how one can argue dl gave as a better deal than the one they got from aa.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2223
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:38 pm

I see this as a great move for AS...code-shares to new (and more to come?) AA international flights out of SEA. More code share flights for AA routes not n/s out of SEA. New opportunities for AS out of LAX with great synergy between T4-T6. They're already partners with so many OW carriers...it will mean better benefits for AS MileagePlan members when flying on OW partners. It's all going to be positive and was a fantastic move by AS.
 
acavpics
Posts: 360
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:54 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:09 pm

If AA goes ahead with SEA-BLR, then your can be almost certain that BLR-SFO on UA metal will come just months later.
 
ehaase
Posts: 129
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:06 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:29 pm

Do the experts think American should just give up on Trans Pacific routes, other than a few routes from DFW to the major Asian cities?
 
AMALH747430
Posts: 195
Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2014 9:29 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:22 pm

ehaase wrote:
Do the experts think American should just give up on Trans Pacific routes, other than a few routes from DFW to the major Asian cities?


I think so. Long term, that’s the only Asia service that seems to have consistently worked for AA. They’ve tried India and East Asia from ORD, that didn’t work. They tried SJC several different ways (with their own domestic feed and partnering with QQ), that didn’t work. LAX appears to have not worked out either. They would probably be best served by doing the same thing they do in Asia that they do in Europe, hit the high points with their own metal from core hub(s) and concentrate on feed JLs network via Tokyo.

AA tried this same thing (using AS for Pacific feed) across the Atlantic before when they were losing market share at NYC and BOS. They tried using B6 (they even had a FF partnership) to feed their international networks. It “underperformed” according to both airlines and the strategy was abandoned.
 
onwFan
Posts: 430
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:01 pm

AMALH747430 wrote:
ehaase wrote:
Do the experts think American should just give up on Trans Pacific routes, other than a few routes from DFW to the major Asian cities?


I think so. Long term, that’s the only Asia service that seems to have consistently worked for AA. They’ve tried India and East Asia from ORD, that didn’t work. They tried SJC several different ways (with their own domestic feed and partnering with QQ), that didn’t work. LAX appears to have not worked out either. They would probably be best served by doing the same thing they do in Asia that they do in Europe, hit the high points with their own metal from core hub(s) and concentrate on feed JLs network via Tokyo.

AA tried this same thing (using AS for Pacific feed) across the Atlantic before when they were losing market share at NYC and BOS. They tried using B6 (they even had a FF partnership) to feed their international networks. It “underperformed” according to both airlines and the strategy was abandoned.

To be fair, none of the previous scenarios are comparable at all to the current partnership.

1. From ORD, AA was trying to replicate the long haul network of a longer established and larger competitor UA. Every single of NRT, PEK and PVG was also flown by UA. There was no way AA could compete with AI’s ORD-DEL prices.
2. SJC was long back with not even the level of feed AS has at SEA. Plus UA at SFO competes for the exact same markets. So again trying to replicate UA’s established and profitable network.
3. AA and B6 partnership was not as conprehensive as this and there were many overlapping routes which were excluded from the partnership. And DL was an established and much larger competitor internationally and domestically (that was profitable?). B6 was in no way interested in competing with DL for TATL passengers

With AS, AA is simply doubling down on an established partnership with AS (a partner of 40+ yrs), which is twice as large as its competitor, which has not even established a profitable or expansive hub operation at SEA (DL). AS is equally interested in competing with DL for intl business customers and in joining AA’s alliance, which means they will share the FFs. AS has a purely West Coast operation and AA has no true hub in the West Coast, so both need each other. With travel going to start pretty much from scratch, there is no better opportunity than this to catch DL at its weakest in SEA. Plus, they are putting in very little investment into this... So, backing out of TPAC at this juncture is simply like making DL’s dream come true.
 
onwFan
Posts: 430
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:28 pm

acavpics wrote:
If AA goes ahead with SEA-BLR, then your can be almost certain that BLR-SFO on UA metal will come just months later.

As others have pointed out earlier, UA has no aircraft that makes the economics of such a long haul route like SFO-BLR work, which is also why the dropped LAX-SIN... SEA is pretty much the only major city in North America from where South India can be served profitably.

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