TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:13 am

Aliqiout wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
The big difference with this alliance is there is no demand for exclusively this time.


We


ll over time I suspect there will be exclusivity within the OneWorld alliance. This could have been easily negotiated with SkyTeam partners as well back in the day. Delta would not have been that arrogant not to include SkyTeam members in any exclusivity deal.


There isn't much exclusivity between the existing OneWorld alliance now, why do think that will change.


Because American ain't dumb. The exclusivity will be relegated in and out of Seattle only. So Alaska is back in square one. Not with Delta. But with American.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:19 am

TYWoolman wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
On the flip side: While Delta may have underestimated the strength of Alaska, Alaska most certainly underestimated the direction of the industry and itself in it. I find it ironic that, to my understanding, shunning Delta's proposed exclusivity agreement alliance between them both (and subsequently Delta deciding to go it alone), Alaska finds itself yet again in a proposition to forge an alliance. History will tell if American is the right choice. If anything, this deal is testament to Delta's strength, tenacity and inroad into the Seattle market. I think it will coexist nicely there.

The big difference with this alliance is there is no demand for exclusively this time.


Well over time I suspect there will be exclusivity within the OneWorld alliance. This could have been easily negotiated with SkyTeam partners as well back in the day. Delta would not have been that arrogant not to include SkyTeam members in any exclusivity deal.


I wouldn't expect a OneWorld exclusivity, OneWorld doesn't require it and Alaska will still be an independent carrier. Alaska will do what makes them the most money.

Qantas for example has immunised JVs with both Emirates and China Eastern, is fully committed to maintaining their partnership with Latam, and codeshares with a raft of other carriers such as Asiana and Air France-KLM.
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TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:22 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
The big difference with this alliance is there is no demand for exclusively this time.


Well over time I suspect there will be exclusivity within the OneWorld alliance. This could have been easily negotiated with SkyTeam partners as well back in the day. Delta would not have been that arrogant not to include SkyTeam members in any exclusivity deal.


I wouldn't expect a OneWorld exclusivity, OneWorld doesn't require it and Alaska will still be an independent carrier. Alaska will do what makes them the most money. Qantas has immunised JVs with both Emirates and China Eastern, and is fully committed to maintaining their partnership with Latam.


Perhaps no exclusivity in writing. But without a doubt American wants Alaska in OneWorld for one reason: Exclusivity! Passengers booking on American through Seattle will be put on OneWorld members. Alaska passengers booking through Seattle will be geared toward OneWorld members. It's a no-brainer.
 
Aliqiout
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:25 am

TYWoolman wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:

We


ll over time I suspect there will be exclusivity within the OneWorld alliance. This could have been easily negotiated with SkyTeam partners as well back in the day. Delta would not have been that arrogant not to include SkyTeam members in any exclusivity deal.


There isn't much exclusivity between the existing OneWorld alliance now, why do think that will change.


Because American ain't dumb. The exclusivity will be relegated in and out of Seattle only. So Alaska is back in square one. Not with Delta. But with American.

Why would AS ever agree to that? Why would AS be treated any differently than any other smaller OneWorld Airline? AA isn't getting any control of AS. AS will still he making decisions to benefit their shareholders, not AA's.

Of course they may lose a few partners anyway...
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:31 am

Aliqiout wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:

There isn't much exclusivity between the existing OneWorld alliance now, why do think that will change.


Because American ain't dumb. The exclusivity will be relegated in and out of Seattle only. So Alaska is back in square one. Not with Delta. But with American.

Why would AS ever agree to that? Why would AS be treated any differently than any other smaller OneWorld Airline? AA isn't getting any control of AS. AS will still he making decisions to benefit their shareholders, not AA's.

Of course they may lose a few partners anyway...


Alaska Airlines would agree to it because they are being forced with American's hand. Alaska knows it shouldn't deny this courtship, it is learning from its mistake having shunned Delta. Delta's proposition is similar and would have created a more sustainable, profitable enterprise. Now, 2 billion later merging with Virgin America, Alaska is faced with the same dilemma and bites.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:35 am

And eventually American will have to find itself a way to invest in Alaska. Because what if JetBlue buys Alaska and then decides to partner with United. American is going to have to protect it's Seattle gateway with more than just nice press releases.
 
superjeff
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:37 am

This is a "win-win". American needs Alaska's strength on the West Coast (and, arguably, to Hawaii), and Alaska needs American's in the rest of the country. This will keep Alaska's frequent flyers happy by giving them more options, and American's by also doing the same thing. That simple.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:42 am

superjeff wrote:
This is a "win-win". American needs Alaska's strength on the West Coast (and, arguably, to Hawaii), and Alaska needs American's in the rest of the country. This will keep Alaska's frequent flyers happy by giving them more options, and American's by also doing the same thing. That simple.


I agree. Just analyzing whether it would have been that simple with a Delta alliance instead a few years ago and if Alaska is now realizing they can't go it alone after all.
 
sxf24
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:52 am

TYWoolman wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
On the flip side: While Delta may have underestimated the strength of Alaska, Alaska most certainly underestimated the direction of the industry and itself in it. I find it ironic that, to my understanding, shunning Delta's proposed exclusivity agreement alliance between them both (and subsequently Delta deciding to go it alone), Alaska finds itself yet again in a proposition to forge an alliance. History will tell if American is the right choice. If anything, this deal is testament to Delta's strength, tenacity and inroad into the Seattle market. I think it will coexist nicely there.


I think oneworld is the right choice for SEA and the west coast. Between BA, CX, JL and QF there’s a long history and strong network. Star is better to Asia, though not an option for AS.


But a Delta-Alaska alliance back in the day would have right-sized the supply and demand in Seattle. With Delta's ambitions and the new Alaska-American alliance, Alaska may find its margins in a perpetual attack there in the long-run. Competition is good, but again, Alaska finds itself needing an alliance in Seattle, even after they spent a billion or two on Virgin America.


There is no indication Seattle is over served. AS’ profitability is strong - generally better than DL’s margin.

TYWoolman wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
On the flip side: While Delta may have underestimated the strength of Alaska, Alaska most certainly underestimated the direction of the industry and itself in it. I find it ironic that, to my understanding, shunning Delta's proposed exclusivity agreement alliance between them both (and subsequently Delta deciding to go it alone), Alaska finds itself yet again in a proposition to forge an alliance. History will tell if American is the right choice. If anything, this deal is testament to Delta's strength, tenacity and inroad into the Seattle market. I think it will coexist nicely there.

The big difference with this alliance is there is no demand for exclusively this time.


Well over time I suspect there will be exclusivity within the OneWorld alliance. This could have been easily negotiated with SkyTeam partners as well back in the day. Delta would not have been that arrogant not to include SkyTeam members in any exclusivity deal.


There is no exclusivity requirement for oneworld membership. The only exclusivity requirement is from DL.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:03 am

sxf24 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

I think oneworld is the right choice for SEA and the west coast. Between BA, CX, JL and QF there’s a long history and strong network. Star is better to Asia, though not an option for AS.


But a Delta-Alaska alliance back in the day would have right-sized the supply and demand in Seattle. With Delta's ambitions and the new Alaska-American alliance, Alaska may find its margins in a perpetual attack there in the long-run. Competition is good, but again, Alaska finds itself needing an alliance in Seattle, even after they spent a billion or two on Virgin America.


There is no indication Seattle is over served. AS’ profitability is strong - generally better than DL’s margin.

TYWoolman wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
The big difference with this alliance is there is no demand for exclusively this time.


Well over time I suspect there will be exclusivity within the OneWorld alliance. This could have been easily negotiated with SkyTeam partners as well back in the day. Delta would not have been that arrogant not to include SkyTeam members in any exclusivity deal.


There is no exclusivity requirement for oneworld membership. The only exclusivity requirement is from DL.


To the topic of OneWorld membership: American is shrewd. Alaska may have choice out there to partner up, but let's face it, reservation systems at Alaska and American will not be booking itineraries on no other than OneWorld carriers whenever possible.
 
sxf24
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:23 am

TYWoolman wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:

But a Delta-Alaska alliance back in the day would have right-sized the supply and demand in Seattle. With Delta's ambitions and the new Alaska-American alliance, Alaska may find its margins in a perpetual attack there in the long-run. Competition is good, but again, Alaska finds itself needing an alliance in Seattle, even after they spent a billion or two on Virgin America.


There is no indication Seattle is over served. AS’ profitability is strong - generally better than DL’s margin.

TYWoolman wrote:

Well over time I suspect there will be exclusivity within the OneWorld alliance. This could have been easily negotiated with SkyTeam partners as well back in the day. Delta would not have been that arrogant not to include SkyTeam members in any exclusivity deal.


There is no exclusivity requirement for oneworld membership. The only exclusivity requirement is from DL.


To the topic of OneWorld membership: American is shrewd. Alaska may have choice out there to partner up, but let's face it, reservation systems at Alaska and American will not be booking itineraries on no other than OneWorld carriers whenever possible.


Since the person at AS negotiating alliances is ex-DL, I presume they asked upfront about exclusivity.
 
onwFan
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:28 am

TYWoolman wrote:
superjeff wrote:
This is a "win-win". American needs Alaska's strength on the West Coast (and, arguably, to Hawaii), and Alaska needs American's in the rest of the country. This will keep Alaska's frequent flyers happy by giving them more options, and American's by also doing the same thing. That simple.


I agree. Just analyzing whether it would have been that simple with a Delta alliance instead a few years ago and if Alaska is now realizing they can't go it alone after all.

I’ll give you the answer to that. If AS went for the exclusivity with DL, they would have been just another one on the list of carriers ‘used and dumped’ by DL somewhere between KE, CZ, G3 and AR; with the resurrection of KE from the trash can somewhere in between as well.
 
MAH4546
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:57 am

TYWoolman wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:

Well over time I suspect there will be exclusivity within the OneWorld alliance. This could have been easily negotiated with SkyTeam partners as well back in the day. Delta would not have been that arrogant not to include SkyTeam members in any exclusivity deal.


I wouldn't expect a OneWorld exclusivity, OneWorld doesn't require it and Alaska will still be an independent carrier. Alaska will do what makes them the most money. Qantas has immunised JVs with both Emirates and China Eastern, and is fully committed to maintaining their partnership with Latam.


Perhaps no exclusivity in writing. But without a doubt American wants Alaska in OneWorld for one reason: Exclusivity! Passengers booking on American through Seattle will be put on OneWorld members. Alaska passengers booking through Seattle will be geared toward OneWorld members. It's a no-brainer.


Just stop talking. You have no idea how this works, and clearly have no basic context of antitrust law and illegal collusion practices. This is not how any of this works.
a.
 
MAH4546
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:58 am

sxf24 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

There is no indication Seattle is over served. AS’ profitability is strong - generally better than DL’s margin.



There is no exclusivity requirement for oneworld membership. The only exclusivity requirement is from DL.


To the topic of OneWorld membership: American is shrewd. Alaska may have choice out there to partner up, but let's face it, reservation systems at Alaska and American will not be booking itineraries on no other than OneWorld carriers whenever possible.


Since the person at AS negotiating alliances is ex-DL, I presume they asked upfront about exclusivity.


No. U.S. competition law prohibits this.
a.
 
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:59 am

This is a true win-win for both carriers. AA gets bolstered by a strong West Coast network with great feed. AS gets to retain AA as a full earn/burn mileage partner, something that was due to end next month, while also gaining the ability to feed new international flights at SEA that DL doesn’t offer while connecting service to other international flights at LAX that matches or beats what DL offers. Where DL was previously marketing itself as the only true int’l/domestic option for corporate travelers from the PNW, AS can now match or even beat what they offer. And of course, AA gets to draw those same corporate travelers off DL planes while also firmly planting their thumb in DL’s eye for their actions at BOS and MIA. DL’s money-losing operation at SEA just got a whole lot harder to justify.

I think DL is really regretting insisting that AS dump all their partners and only feed/partner with them; it has cost them a ton, and AS hasn’t lost a single bit of market share at SEA in the process, despite DL’s attempts to hurt them.
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Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
wedgetail737
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:27 am

I wonder if AA will soon drop the SEA-LAX flights, with the partnership.
 
MAH4546
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:40 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
I wonder if AA will soon drop the SEA-LAX flights, with the partnership.


No. That’d would be viewed as grossly anti-competive! It would actually maybe cause DOT to refuse codeshare approval. AA isn’t exiting LAX-SEA/PDX/ANC, just like AS isnt exiting LAX-JFK/BOS/FLL. That is not how this works. If anything, the agreement cements each airline’s commitment to those competing markets.

Where do people make these things up? This isn’t a merger.
Last edited by MAH4546 on Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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chepos
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:42 am

jbpdx wrote:
onwFan wrote:
jbpdx wrote:

PDX-MIA fills the gap between PDX-HND and MIA-LATAM. American isn’t interested in PDX, and Alaska has been cutting routes from PDX. Perfect opportunity for Delta.

What? Are you suggesting people are gonna connect HND-PDX-MIA-Latin America??

Either way, if DL were to announce PDX-MIA, it is a no brainer that AA will launch it from the same start date.


It opens HND for MIA and it opens -MIA and -LATAM for PDX. As for Alaska starting MIA in addition to FLL, why? MIA is an American hub. Neither airline has been interested in adding PDX-MIA—or FLL. Neither has JetBlue been interested in adding PDX to its FLL network. Meanwhile, the MAX fiasco has AA and AS in a bind, as Delta’s A220s are being delivered.


How does DL starting MIA-PDX make sense but you can’t see AS flying into MIA? It would make loads of sense for AS fo ditch FLL and move down the road to MIA (or maybe even serve both), for starters based on the broad array of connections ex MIA on AA.


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usflyer msp
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:03 am

TYWoolman wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:

But a Delta-Alaska alliance back in the day would have right-sized the supply and demand in Seattle. With Delta's ambitions and the new Alaska-American alliance, Alaska may find its margins in a perpetual attack there in the long-run. Competition is good, but again, Alaska finds itself needing an alliance in Seattle, even after they spent a billion or two on Virgin America.


There is no indication Seattle is over served. AS’ profitability is strong - generally better than DL’s margin.

TYWoolman wrote:

Well over time I suspect there will be exclusivity within the OneWorld alliance. This could have been easily negotiated with SkyTeam partners as well back in the day. Delta would not have been that arrogant not to include SkyTeam members in any exclusivity deal.


There is no exclusivity requirement for oneworld membership. The only exclusivity requirement is from DL.


To the topic of OneWorld membership: American is shrewd. Alaska may have choice out there to partner up, but let's face it, reservation systems at Alaska and American will not be booking itineraries on no other than OneWorld carriers whenever possible.


OW is by far the most lenient alliance regarding ex-alliance partnerships, even with rival carriers of alliance members (example: both JL and AY partner with SU instead of S7) ; this is another reason why AS is a good fit.
 
9w748capt
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:24 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
I wonder if AA will soon drop the SEA-LAX flights, with the partnership.


Huh? That makes literally zero sense. Why would AA add an Intl gateway at SEA but then cut flights to SEA on their own metal? If anything I'd expect AA to expand their LAX-SEA service! Who knows, maybe AA will jump on on routes like SFO/SJC-SEA as well.
 
questions
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:25 am

TYWoolman wrote:
I predict three scenarios:
1) Alaska-American alliance is a success and keeps Delta amicably at bay (and Delta is ok with that.)
2) Delta and Alaska-American alliance coexist, but is an archival scene not like any seen before!
3) This marks the end of Alaska, American takes over, other airlines cry for divestitures, Delta gets more Seattle gate space, LLC's enter Seattle, Yields go down hill, American and Delta look at each other and question themselves.


If #1, then I think SEA to DL would just be a focus city, playing supplemental to LAX like BOS is to JFK.

I’m not seeing #2 play out. Seattle is just not big enough. DL or AS/AA is going for fortress hub status.

I can definitely see part of #3 play out (AA acquisition of AS) in the next 5-7 years, expedited by an economic downturn that wreaks havoc on the tech and airline industries. The challenge for AS will be “OK, now what?” Once any incremental revenue lift is realized, AS will be looking for the next growth thing. If it’s not abundantly clear, AA will pounce on the BOD. If anyone thinks AA has complacent, surly frontline workers now, just wait until the acquisition-turned bitter AS frontline workers fold into the mix.

AS and AA have a good chance. However, AA has a better record of dismantling vs building.

Two missing pieces of the puzzle:

1. How valuable is AS’s feed of premium customers and on which international routes?

2. What is DL’s TPAC strategy (the real strategy, not the glossy PR version). What role does SEA and LAX play in executing DL’s TPAC strategy? What role does SEA play in DL’s network?

It will be interesting to see how DL responds, not just to SEA but to TPAC as a whole. Preempt some of AA’s launches? Build up and bleed on targeted routes to maintain or obtain share? Poach an Asia Pacific partner from Star Alliance or oneworld? Draw down SEA while building up LAX and moving flow from SEA to LAX, DTW and SLC? This last one validating what a lot of folks have been saying for a while, that SEA for DL is a temporary play.

This is a really good opportunity for AA if they can execute. And no doubt DL has run the risk scenarios and has planned out strategic responses.
 
questions
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:26 am

[twoid][/twoid]
9w748capt wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
I wonder if AA will soon drop the SEA-LAX flights, with the partnership.


Huh? That makes literally zero sense. Why would AA add an Intl gateway at SEA but then cut flights to SEA on their own metal? If anything I'd expect AA to expand their LAX-SEA service! Who knows, maybe AA will jump on on routes like SFO/SJC-SEA as well.


With lie-flat seats!

:roll:
 
Ishrion
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:33 am

questions wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
9w748capt wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
I wonder if AA will soon drop the SEA-LAX flights, with the partnership.


Huh? That makes literally zero sense. Why would AA add an Intl gateway at SEA but then cut flights to SEA on their own metal? If anything I'd expect AA to expand their LAX-SEA service! Who knows, maybe AA will jump on on routes like SFO/SJC-SEA as well.


With lie-flat seats!

:roll:


I mean... the 789 for SEA-BLR’s gotta come from somewhere, so it could be LAX-SEA-BLR.
 
questions
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:36 am

superjeff wrote:
This is a "win-win". American needs Alaska's strength on the West Coast (and, arguably, to Hawaii), and Alaska needs American's in the rest of the country. This will keep Alaska's frequent flyers happy by giving them more options, and American's by also doing the same thing. That simple.


Until AS’s frequent flyers discover AA ain’t AS!
 
Detroit313
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:36 am

With the Qantas joint venture approved and now this, the past few months have been great for AA on the West coast.
 
questions
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:40 am

BLR is just one of those airport codes that I want to misinterpret every time.

It’s crazy.

Every time I see BLR I think Belarus not Bangalore.
 
speedbird52
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:42 am

rentonview wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
Top ten anime plot twists.

SEATAC Is going to need a whole new terminal now. Maybe on the 34L/16R side?


Funny! Just must not be familiar with the geography of the area. In order to build 34L/16R (the "third runway"), the entire airfield plateau had to be extended with 500,000 truckloads of fill contained by a 1,430 foot-long, 130-foot-high retaining wall. It cost $1 billion and took almost 20 years to complete due to lawsuits from property owners (an entire neighborhood was removed).

The actual expansion will be on the other side of the airfield, where a very slender north terminal will likely be built where a portion of the current cargo area and hardstands currently exist, along with a parking lot. But it can't go too far to the east, as there's a cemetery bordering the site... unless they want to go all Poltergeist on us! :tombstone: :ghost:

North terminal plan looks even worse to me. It would be at capacity within a decade, and then comes the question of where to move the cargo operation that will be displaced.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:48 am

Ishrion wrote:
questions wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
9w748capt wrote:

Huh? That makes literally zero sense. Why would AA add an Intl gateway at SEA but then cut flights to SEA on their own metal? If anything I'd expect AA to expand their LAX-SEA service! Who knows, maybe AA will jump on on routes like SFO/SJC-SEA as well.


With lie-flat seats!

:roll:


I mean... the 789 for SEA-BLR’s gotta come from somewhere, so it could be LAX-SEA-BLR.


AA only flies 789s from LAX and DFW so it has to come from one of those two cities.
 
MAH4546
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:52 am

questions wrote:
superjeff wrote:
This is a "win-win". American needs Alaska's strength on the West Coast (and, arguably, to Hawaii), and Alaska needs American's in the rest of the country. This will keep Alaska's frequent flyers happy by giving them more options, and American's by also doing the same thing. That simple.


Until AS’s frequent flyers discover AA ain’t AS!


Accurate. AS is full service, premium carrier and AA is ULCC, but AS has a limited network so it will be nice for AS FF to have the option of earning miles/using status benefits even if it means sacrificing flying a full service airline. I’m an AS MVPG and will certainly consider using AA because of that.
a.
 
Ishrion
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:56 am

usflyer msp wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
questions wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]

With lie-flat seats!

:roll:


I mean... the 789 for SEA-BLR’s gotta come from somewhere, so it could be LAX-SEA-BLR.


AA only flies 789s from LAX and DFW so it has to come from one of those two cities.


American also operates ORD-DFW/LHR with the 789. Not really saying they'd do ORD-SEA-BLR though. Running it through DFW/LAX would be more likely.
 
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QuawerAir
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:12 am

MareBorealis wrote:
American 767 wrote:

Another thing is, now that AS joining One World is official, AY could open a nonstop route from HEL to SEA. This route would get a lot of feed from AS flights in SEA, it's something AY should now consider.


Would be cool to see Finnair back in SEA, a seasonal service could work, having a feeder and supported by the Atlantic Joint Venture. They used to fly HEL-SEA-LAX in the late 1980s with DC-10, HEL-SEA was my very first scheduled long haul flight.

SEA could work, perhaps seasonal 3x weekly with A330. However, I do not see SEA being launched before DFW (which may come within a year or two). Combined O&D demand between SEA/YVR (Vancouver is only ca. 245 km away from Seattle) and CPH was more than 55,000 two-way passengers in 2018, which is rather high. It's good to point out that CPH–HEL–SEA is not too much longer than direct CPH–SEA.
ATL, AYT, FRA, FUE, HEL, JFK, LCA, LHR, MUC | AY, BA, DL, FH, LH, LO | A320, A321, A333, 752, 764, 772, 788
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Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:17 am

EA CO AS wrote:
This is a true win-win for both carriers. AA gets bolstered by a strong West Coast network with great feed. AS gets to retain AA as a full earn/burn mileage partner, something that was due to end next month, while also gaining the ability to feed new international flights at SEA that DL doesn’t offer while connecting service to other international flights at LAX that matches or beats what DL offers. Where DL was previously marketing itself as the only true int’l/domestic option for corporate travelers from the PNW, AS can now match or even beat what they offer. And of course, AA gets to draw those same corporate travelers off DL planes while also firmly planting their thumb in DL’s eye for their actions at BOS and MIA. DL’s money-losing operation at SEA just got a whole lot harder to justify.

I think DL is really regretting insisting that AS dump all their partners and only feed/partner with them; it has cost them a ton, and AS hasn’t lost a single bit of market share at SEA in the process, despite DL’s attempts to hurt them.


Is AA the only carrier that AS will put their own code on once with OneWorld? With AA to LHR, one now has the top European destination covered non-stop & then entire BA network to connect on going onwards to All of Europe/Africa/M.E. in one single connection.

As well as having O/W partners that are already partner carriers such as BA, CX, QF & JL. Would the relationship with any of these carriers become more enhanced in O/W?

Will the AS code appear on any AA metal flight, be it International or Domestic? If so, would the AS code then appear on JV BA operated AA flights flying TATL.

I think your last statement is truthful, IMHO, DL grossly underestimated the loyalty AS has in the PNW & while not a full fledged disaster, DL made a bully play to advance it's own interests at SEA & it is going to continue to be a much larger battle than DL anticipated.
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
AA AC AQ AS BA BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN WP YS 8M
 
SEAflyer97
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed May 09, 2018 9:10 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:30 am

RWA380 wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
This is a true win-win for both carriers. AA gets bolstered by a strong West Coast network with great feed. AS gets to retain AA as a full earn/burn mileage partner, something that was due to end next month, while also gaining the ability to feed new international flights at SEA that DL doesn’t offer while connecting service to other international flights at LAX that matches or beats what DL offers. Where DL was previously marketing itself as the only true int’l/domestic option for corporate travelers from the PNW, AS can now match or even beat what they offer. And of course, AA gets to draw those same corporate travelers off DL planes while also firmly planting their thumb in DL’s eye for their actions at BOS and MIA. DL’s money-losing operation at SEA just got a whole lot harder to justify.

I think DL is really regretting insisting that AS dump all their partners and only feed/partner with them; it has cost them a ton, and AS hasn’t lost a single bit of market share at SEA in the process, despite DL’s attempts to hurt them.


Is AA the only carrier that AS will put their own code on once with OneWorld? With AA to LHR, one now has the top European destination covered non-stop & then entire BA network to connect on going onwards to All of Europe/Africa/M.E. in one single connection.

As well as having O/W partners that are already partner carriers such as BA, CX, QF & JL. Would the relationship with any of these carriers become more enhanced in O/W?

Will the AS code appear on any AA metal flight, be it International or Domestic? If so, would the AS code then appear on JV BA operated AA flights flying TATL.

I think your last statement is truthful, IMHO, DL grossly underestimated the loyalty AS has in the PNW & while not a full fledged disaster, DL made a bully play to advance it's own interests at SEA & it is going to continue to be a much larger battle than DL anticipated.

Currently AS sells AA domestic codeshare and QF codeshare(SFO/LAX only). I could see them adding more partners(BA/AA Intl/CX) once they switch their system to dynamic pricing.
 
by738
Posts: 3060
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2000 7:59 am

Re: AS to join oneworld

Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:40 am

MAH4546 wrote:
this is almost definitely replacing the second BA frequency.

But that is completely different... a third additional OW flight was the intimation which is overkill imo.
 
toobz
Posts: 864
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:33 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:24 am

I have a bad feeling that AS MileagePlan is going to change for the worse by joining OW
 
User avatar
Airbus747
Posts: 154
Joined: Thu Mar 13, 2014 12:18 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:36 am

Could someone please explain to a European (who rarely travels to America) why this news is significant, unexpected... "awesome"?
 
Gulfstream500
Posts: 459
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:30 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:43 am

Reminds me a bit of the relationship that UA and CO had between 2009 and 2012 (not saying that AA and AS are going to merge...).

[Sarcasm on]

Maybe B6 and DL will codeshare to make two mega hubs at JFK and BOS, with twice the damage that AA is doing. :stirthepot:

[Sarcasm Off]
So... when will the Northwest DC-9s be retired?
 
crescent
Posts: 108
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:09 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:09 pm

A lot of excitement here over what is essentially one niche flight to BLR. Let's not forget DL has already ended SEA-HKG, SEA-SIN, and SEA-KIX is wobbly. It could be many many years before AA has even a handful of SEA-Asia flights.
 
ryby92
Posts: 25
Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:34 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:38 pm

crescent wrote:
A lot of excitement here over what is essentially one niche flight to BLR. Let's not forget DL has already ended SEA-HKG, SEA-SIN, and SEA-KIX is wobbly. It could be many many years before AA has even a handful of SEA-Asia flights.


The difference though is that HKG and KIX are OW hubs. Add NRT/HND and suddenly you have 4 destinations.

Let's face it. AA did a master stroke this week and a lot of Delta darlings are upset. If this was Delta making this move many would be blowing their trumpets loud and hard!
 
konkret
Posts: 323
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:26 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:56 pm

ryby92 wrote:
crescent wrote:
A lot of excitement here over what is essentially one niche flight to BLR. Let's not forget DL has already ended SEA-HKG, SEA-SIN, and SEA-KIX is wobbly. It could be many many years before AA has even a handful of SEA-Asia flights.


The difference though is that HKG and KIX are OW hubs. Add NRT/HND and suddenly you have 4 destinations.

Let's face it. AA did a master stroke this week and a lot of Delta darlings are upset. If this was Delta making this move many would be blowing their trumpets loud and hard!


Calling KIX an OW hub is a bit of a stretch, to say the least.
Per capacity oneworld is 1/2 the size of star and 2/3 of skyteam at KIX.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7902
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:12 pm

Is SEA-BLR truly the first ULH P2P? SEA is not an AA hub and no last-mile connectivity at BLR.

I think this what a 787 meant to achieve. This route is revolutionary in that sense.
 
Boof02671
Posts: 1815
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:15 pm

PHL sees the 787 now and AA is opening up a 787 crew base their.
 
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chepos
Posts: 7202
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 9:40 am

AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:33 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Is SEA-BLR truly the first ULH P2P? SEA is not an AA hub and no last-mile connectivity at BLR.

I think this what a 787 meant to achieve. This route is revolutionary in that sense.


While SEA is not an AA hub, it is an AS hub. So no, SEA-BLR is not a P2P route. As pointed out previously the flight will be getting feed from AS at SEA.


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Last edited by chepos on Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3543
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:36 pm

Ishrion wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

I mean... the 789 for SEA-BLR’s gotta come from somewhere, so it could be LAX-SEA-BLR.


AA only flies 789s from LAX and DFW so it has to come from one of those two cities.


American also operates ORD-DFW/LHR with the 789. Not really saying they'd do ORD-SEA-BLR though. Running it through DFW/LAX would be more likely.


The ORD-LHR 789 is switching to a 772 in the spring.
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 688
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:48 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
Because what if JetBlue buys Alaska and then decides to partner with United.


I think this eliminates any possibility of an AS/B6 merger. If anything, this is a first step towards an eventual acquisition of AS by AA.
 
superjeff
Posts: 1310
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:14 am

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:52 pm

TYWoolman wrote:
I predict three scenarios:
1) Alaska-American alliance is a success and keeps Delta amicably at bay (and Delta is ok with that.)
2) Delta and Alaska-American alliance coexist, but is an archival scene not like any seen before!
3) This marks the end of Alaska, American takes over, other airlines cry for divestitures, Delta gets more Seattle gate space, LLC's enter Seattle, Yields go down hill, American and Delta look at each other and question themselves.



I think your first two options are both possible, but not #3, because I think (and it is only my opinion) that anti-trust considerations will prohibit any more mergers of majors, so I think an AA/AS merger is not going to happen. Not to mention that, at least at this point, there are political reasons (i.e., the State of Alaska will certainly not be happy).
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 688
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:08 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
This is a true win-win for both carriers. AA gets bolstered by a strong West Coast network with great feed. AS gets to retain AA as a full earn/burn mileage partner, something that was due to end next month, while also gaining the ability to feed new international flights at SEA that DL doesn’t offer while connecting service to other international flights at LAX that matches or beats what DL offers. Where DL was previously marketing itself as the only true int’l/domestic option for corporate travelers from the PNW, AS can now match or even beat what they offer. And of course, AA gets to draw those same corporate travelers off DL planes while also firmly planting their thumb in DL’s eye for their actions at BOS and MIA. DL’s money-losing operation at SEA just got a whole lot harder to justify.

I think DL is really regretting insisting that AS dump all their partners and only feed/partner with them; it has cost them a ton, and AS hasn’t lost a single bit of market share at SEA in the process, despite DL’s attempts to hurt them.


Why does DL even need a mainland US TPAC hub? Given their strategy of routing traffic through jv hubs, and the fact that they don’t fly a whole lot of TPAC routes out of SEA on their own metal (unlike UA at SFO), their SEA hub is making less and less sense to me. I don’t think it will be the case, but I hope this is the beginning of the end for DL in SEA.

While I don’t dislike DL, I’ve come to see they are very overrated. I’m getting tired of their somewhat braggadocio attitude toward everything, the LATAM deal was the final straw for me. They aren’t really all that innovative, reality is since they can milk off of 4 core interior hubs with minimal competition, have a much less unionized workforce and outsource a good chuck of international flying to JV partners, it’s no wonder they generate the margins they do. I’m glad to see AS/AA do this and I hope this causes DL to think twice in the future.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 384
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:51 pm

onwFan wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
superjeff wrote:
This is a "win-win". American needs Alaska's strength on the West Coast (and, arguably, to Hawaii), and Alaska needs American's in the rest of the country. This will keep Alaska's frequent flyers happy by giving them more options, and American's by also doing the same thing. That simple.


I agree. Just analyzing whether it would have been that simple with a Delta alliance instead a few years ago and if Alaska is now realizing they can't go it alone after all.

I’ll give you the answer to that. If AS went for the exclusivity with DL, they would have been just another one on the list of carriers ‘used and dumped’ by DL somewhere between KE, CZ, G3 and AR; with the resurrection of KE from the trash can somewhere in between as well.


Delta wanted to merge with Alaska, exclusivity would have been the next best thing for it.
 
ZazuPIT
Posts: 65
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:32 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:05 pm

crescent wrote:
A lot of excitement here over what is essentially one niche flight to BLR. Let's not forget DL has already ended SEA-HKG, SEA-SIN, and SEA-KIX is wobbly. It could be many many years before AA has even a handful of SEA-Asia flights.


When did DL end SEA-SIN? They never flew it, so kinda hard to stop a route never flown, no?
 
tphuang
Posts: 4112
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:30 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
This is a true win-win for both carriers. AA gets bolstered by a strong West Coast network with great feed. AS gets to retain AA as a full earn/burn mileage partner, something that was due to end next month, while also gaining the ability to feed new international flights at SEA that DL doesn’t offer while connecting service to other international flights at LAX that matches or beats what DL offers. Where DL was previously marketing itself as the only true int’l/domestic option for corporate travelers from the PNW, AS can now match or even beat what they offer. And of course, AA gets to draw those same corporate travelers off DL planes while also firmly planting their thumb in DL’s eye for their actions at BOS and MIA. DL’s money-losing operation at SEA just got a whole lot harder to justify.

I think DL is really regretting insisting that AS dump all their partners and only feed/partner with them; it has cost them a ton, and AS hasn’t lost a single bit of market share at SEA in the process, despite DL’s attempts to hurt them.


Of course this is a win-win for both carrier from AS perspective. We will see about AA in a few years. DL made a huge tactical error in picking war with AA here. And AA in its anger decided to take a move that's clearly beneficial in short term, but is grooming a dangerous competitor in the long term.

Would you deny that AS at some point in near future will start expanding in California again on midcon and transcon market. That all this current north south + SEA flights is just a temporary situation while DL remains a threat in PNW? Long term, it's in AA's interest to cede west coast to AS? I'm sure AS would love that. But is that best for AA long term?

Sure, AA can try to merge with AS, but it's stock prices is rock bottom. It would be a huge risk to buy AS at their current market cap. and unless AA can really turn things around, it would be hard for it to buy AS.

Oh and don't underestimate DL's willingness to continue to lose money at SEA. DL management has shown no shortage of confidence or belief that they can somehow turn hopeless situation around and DL supporters on this forum will continue to defend all their actions.

so
big winner AS
small winner AA
small loser UA/B6/WN
big loser DL

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