Nicknuzzii
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Time for UA to step up?

Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:10 pm

With AS joining AA in OneWorld greatly expanding their West Coast connectivity and DL growing in many cities including SEA, BOS, AUS, is it finally time for UA to make a move and expand outside of its hubs? Could this be accomplished through a partnership with B6? A new focus city? Reinforcing its LAX and NYC presence? What is UA’s best route to avoid falling to #4 behind WN?

In other words, how can UA expand and grow outside of their current hubs?
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:59 pm

UA has been doubling down on strengths while making large investments in new aircraft and massive brand and physical upgrades. We won't see UA do anything daring like a new focus city or massive US partnership relatively soon, but they are doing a great job building a solid foundation to do so and would probably be getting to the point they feel comfortable doing something bold soon.
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COSPN
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:00 am

No need to change just add flights like IND-LAX DL WN AA all fly the route... re open JFK and a few other tweaks, but United lacks mainline aircraft...
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:03 am

UA was so far behind on domestic flying that they need to continue shoring up domestic at the hubs.
 
tkoenig95
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:10 am

Why fix something that isn't broken? UA is strengthening its core and will do so for a while before charting into unknown territory.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:12 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
With AS joining AA in OneWorld greatly expanding their West Coast connectivity and DL growing in many cities including SEA, BOS, AUS, is it finally time for UA to make a move and expand outside of its hubs?


Do yourself a favor before asking broad questions: research. You might start by charting domestic ASMs, and rates of growth in domestic ASMs, for the major U.S. carriers. The last ~seven years would be good.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:13 am

tkoenig95 wrote:
Why fix something that isn't broken? UA is strengthening its core and will do so for a while before charting into unknown territory.


Because UA is virtually irrelevant outside their hub markets. I agree they need to continue to strengthen their core first, but they’ll have to address their weakness outside their hubs at some point.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:14 am

UA is stepping up and doubling down on its domestic network, new aircraft, and product.

Look at their planned bulking up of DEN for example.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:15 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
With AS joining AA in OneWorld greatly expanding their West Coast connectivity and DL growing in many cities including SEA, BOS, AUS, is it finally time for UA to make a move and expand outside of its hubs?


Do yourself a favor before asking broad questions: research. You might start by charting domestic ASMs, and rates of growth in domestic ASMs, for the major U.S. carriers. The last ~seven years would be good.


Perhaps you’re not understanding the question, I’m asking how they can grow outside of their hubs.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:16 am

Please tell me how they are “weak” outside of their hubs.... I would like to see some examples here.

Granted about they only place they don’t compete well is east coast/Midwest to Florida and Caribbean to the extent that DL and AA do.

DL would love to have SFO and DEN over Sea and SLC on the flip side
Last edited by PSU.DTW.SCE on Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
ordbosewr
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:17 am

While conventional wisdom would say they need to do something bold to counter this move, my perspective is that they need to stay the course they have. When the MAX issue gets resolve UA will probably have 50+ new aircraft within a year (if the UA fleet thread is accurate). That will help to close the mainline gap they have, but not solve it (yes, some other planes will be retired when these come on board)
UA can't expect to try to acquire anyone. If they try to get B6 into *A I just don't think the regulators will allow codesharing/etc.
It is either B6 or Hawaiian, and I do not think HA does much for UA, so that leaves B6 or build out organically.
My guess is UA stays the path.

I am not convinced that AA and Alaska will be a cakewalk approval from regulators that many here feel it will be, but maybe I am being to narrowly focused.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:22 am

Stop the B6 codeshare nonsense. B6 competes directly with UA at EWR and brings nothing of any value to UA.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:24 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Stop the B6 codeshare nonsense. B6 competes directly with UA at EWR and brings nothing of any value to UA.


And AA didn’t compete directly with AS in LAX, nevertheless the whole west coast?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:34 am

Not to the extent and scale that B6 and UA directly compete in the NYC market.

AS and AA are nowhere near the same level. There is more a mutual benefit of each and what they are looking to do with each other’s codeshare feed.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:42 am

If anyone needs to step up, it’s DL.
They have gotten lazy regarding their core hubs and while they’ve said they are going to focus more on them all we got for 2020 is some upgauging and ATL-BOI/GEG.
 
JoseSalazar
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:42 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Stop the B6 codeshare nonsense. B6 competes directly with UA at EWR and brings nothing of any value to UA.


T5/T6/T7 at JFK, BOS, FL, and the Caribbean. Yeah pretty much nothing of value.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:45 am

None of that matters or is of any value in a codeshare.
 
N649DL
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:48 am

Aside SFO, forget the bloodbath on the West Coast. The Low hanging fruit would be for UAL to merge with JetBlue: Divest some of EWR (already eroding their market share somewhat by LCC's), get back into JFK, get FLL and MCO as true hubs in the South, and focus on being the core East Coast carrier with EWR / JFK / BOS / IAD hubs.

The new UA color scheme and B6's would complement each other as well as both carriers having comped contracts with DirecTV on many of their planes (plus IIRC, B6 has free Wi-Fi.) Also they can leverage B6's "Mint" to reinvigorate a rather stale Transcon product by UA. B6 can finally rebound with better operational performance by way of UA as well.

I know it sounds nuts, it actually makes sense in a lot of ways for UA to get ahead. For instance if UA decided to forfeit all gates in the new Terminal A at EWR, the deal could be sealed very quickly. If this were to happen, trust me, both AA and DL would s*** the bed. EWR and JFK would have to be downsized (especially EWR) but that's good for competition anyway. UA is already favoring domestic traffic down to IAD instead of EWR anyway these days. AA especially because UA / B6 would own the NYC-Caribbean market which AA was king of back in the 1990s.

B6 wants TATL routes and both are in a bit of an identity crisis, so what do they both have to loose? (aside consolidation at the New York Airports which are nuts in terms of gates and infrastructure anyway.)
Last edited by N649DL on Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:53 am

UA-B6 merger is dead on arrival, it’s silly talk.

It would be more anti-consumer than WN-FL.
 
N649DL
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:00 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
UA-B6 merger is dead on arrival, it’s silly talk.

It would be more anti-consumer than WN-FL.


Too vague of an explanation. The WN-FL merger wouldn't even be on the same scale as a UA-B6 merger. That merger dissolved AirTran and eroded various market share and also giving away the 717s to a competitor (DL). I highly doubt UA / B6 would even opt in for something like that in competitive markets. B6 is craving growth (especially TATL) whereas with WN-FL that was never a priority. In fact I don't think there was any kind of strategic priority at all in terms of network either.

IMHO, Both airlines could start fresh and use true synergies for compete against AA and DL currently making moves (and they can do so without the baggage from the UA-CO merger as well).
Last edited by N649DL on Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:05 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
UA-B6 merger is dead on arrival, it’s silly talk.

It would be more anti-consumer than WN-FL.


How so?

How would it be more anti-consumer than DL dominating four interior hubs with minimal competition?
 
IAmGaroott
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:21 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Please tell me how they are “weak” outside of their hubs.... I would like to see some examples here.

Granted about they only place they don’t compete well is east coast/Midwest to Florida and Caribbean to the extent that DL and AA do.

DL would love to have SFO and DEN over Sea and SLC on the flip side


I'd like to see UA open a focus city in Florida. It could increase their presence in the southeast and alleviate vacation traffic from IAH.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:24 am

I don't pretend to know much about finances of the airlines, but maybe UA can sit back while DL and AA pummel each other.

Just because DL and AA are doing stuff doesn't mean they'll be successful/profitable at it.

We'll see. Maybe UA will indeed be left behind. They're all relatively healthy, fortunately
 
RDUDDJI
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:24 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
With AS joining AA in OneWorld greatly expanding their West Coast connectivity and DL growing in many cities including SEA, BOS, AUS


AUS? DL still only serves its hubs and BOS/RDU from AUS.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:28 am

RDUDDJI wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
With AS joining AA in OneWorld greatly expanding their West Coast connectivity and DL growing in many cities including SEA, BOS, AUS


AUS? DL still only serves its hubs and BOS/RDU from AUS.


Yep. For all the fuss people made about AUS being built up and despite it being declared a focus city, they sure haven't done anything yet.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:28 am

The ONLY thing UA needs? Is to establish ang Grow a S.E,US hub. and that will complete all they need to so. From there it's organic growth. As they have all 4 corners of the USA covered and they can then fuel long haul flying from the East and West Coasts as they'll have the east and west connected and they can shift their focus in whatever way they choose. Domestic flying will need more Narrow body airplanes if they do that so Boeing had damn sure get ready and step up their game on getting the 737MAX back in the Air and building it's 757 replacement
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:31 am

strfyr51 wrote:
The ONLY thing UA needs? Is to establish ang Grow a S.E,US hub. and that will complete all they need to so. From there it's organic growth. As they have all 4 corners of the USA covered and they can then fuel long haul flying from the East and West Coasts as they'll have the east and west connected and they can shift their focus in whatever way they choose. Domestic flying will need more Narrow body airplanes if they do that so Boeing had damn sure get ready and step up their game on getting the 737MAX back in the Air and building it's 757 replacement


Where are they going to put a SE hub. Only viable options are ATL, CLT and BNA and all of those cities are spoken for.
 
AMALH747430
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:42 am

UA has a very good hub set up as it is. They definitely need to work on beefing up LAX, but other than that they’re set up pretty good just with the hubs they have. They have hubs in the four largest cities (yes I know cities and metro areas are different things) in the USA. They’ve got the US’ premier Asian gateway in San Francisco. They’re building up their already strong hub in Denver, which is booming at the moment. They’ve got the long-haul hub in Washington DC. They’re also very strong to Europe, Asia, and with Houston, they have a good foothold in Central and South America.

The one thing I think they need to focus on is building LAX back up. Other than that, I think they’re pretty well set.
 
jayunited
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:47 am

BNAMealer wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
UA-B6 merger is dead on arrival, it’s silly talk.

It would be more anti-consumer than WN-FL.


How so?

How would it be more anti-consumer than DL dominating four interior hubs with minimal competition?


Because UA would dominate the entire Northeast.

In the real world the cost of any potential codeshare or merger would be so great that that neither UA or B6 would be willing to pay it. Imagine what both airlines would have to give up just to get regulators to sign off on a codeshare or merger. By the time regulators are done either UA's operation at EWR or B6's operation at JFK would be a shell of its former self. The only thing UA would gain from a potential tie up with B6 would be more access to the markets in Florida, the Caribbean and Central America. UA can grow those market organically UA does not need B6 for these markets.

UA needs to stay the course we are already on growing DEN, and IAH. We need to continue to build up IAD as a reliever hub for EWR to allow EWR to focus more on O&D. At ORD perhaps UA could add either an early morning departure bank 05:30 and/or a later departure bank 22:30-23:30. At LAX there isn't much UA can do right now do to gate constraints, however we need to be ready to capitalize once terminal 9 is built and open. Finally at SFO UA just needs to keep their foot on the gas pedal and continue to grow that hub both domestically and internationally.

AA signing a codeshare agreement with AS and launching 2 international routes from a nonhub location is freaking amazing (BLR whoever would have guessed). But who knows if AA's decision will pay off. Once the excitement and shock wear off only time will tell if these moves will pay dividends, but UA does not need to follow AA's lead.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:51 am

AMALH747430 wrote:
UA has a very good hub set up as it is. They definitely need to work on beefing up LAX, but other than that they’re set up pretty good just with the hubs they have. They have hubs in the four largest cities (yes I know cities and metro areas are different things) in the USA. They’ve got the US’ premier Asian gateway in San Francisco. They’re building up their already strong hub in Denver, which is booming at the moment. They’ve got the long-haul hub in Washington DC. They’re also very strong to Europe, Asia, and with Houston, they have a good foothold in Central and South America.

The one thing I think they need to focus on is building LAX back up. Other than that, I think they’re pretty well set.


LAX doesn't really need to be much bigger than it is now because SFO is right up the road. Could they add a few more domestic routes? Sure, but it isn't needed. IMHO, both ORD and IAD need to be bigger.

Unfortunately for UA, it can't achieve its full potential in ORD because AA is in the way. If it weren't for AA, UA could be the ATL/DFW of its network, which would allow it to generate higher margins and fund growth elsewhere in its network.

IAD needs to get up to about 350-400 flights to relieve EWR. There's tons of underutilized space there. Plus, its the closest thing they will get to a SE hub.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:55 am

BNAMealer wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
The ONLY thing UA needs? Is to establish ang Grow a S.E,US hub. and that will complete all they need to so. From there it's organic growth. As they have all 4 corners of the USA covered and they can then fuel long haul flying from the East and West Coasts as they'll have the east and west connected and they can shift their focus in whatever way they choose. Domestic flying will need more Narrow body airplanes if they do that so Boeing had damn sure get ready and step up their game on getting the 737MAX back in the Air and building it's 757 replacement


Where are they going to put a SE hub. Only viable options are ATL, CLT and BNA and all of those cities are spoken for.
when I was based at ORD
FLL, MIA. MCO to name a few ATL is a Delta Hub, CLT is an American Hub AND? I HAVE NO IDEA who hubs BNA. But it's not far enough away from ORD to make sense to me. I used to Drive through BNA when I was based at the WHQ to go see my daughter and family in ATL. Nice town but hardly as far south as I think United would need. Florida is the only US Corner without a United hub. And? We flew deep South flights from Miami before the bankruptcy and if I'm not mistaken ? UAL recently built a Hangar in Florida. So that should give them something to grow on to Expand upon. wouldn't you say?
 
codc10
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:00 am

I can't imagine anyone making money in SEA as AA gets into the fray there...
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:02 am

jayunited wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
UA-B6 merger is dead on arrival, it’s silly talk.

It would be more anti-consumer than WN-FL.


How so?

How would it be more anti-consumer than DL dominating four interior hubs with minimal competition?


Because UA would dominate the entire Northeast.

In the real world the cost of any potential codeshare or merger would be so great that that neither UA or B6 would be willing to pay it. Imagine what both airlines would have to give up just to get regulators to sign off on a codeshare or merger. By the time regulators are done either UA's operation at EWR or B6's operation at JFK would be a shell of its former self. The only thing UA would gain from a potential tie up with B6 would be more access to the markets in Florida, the Caribbean and Central America. UA can grow those market organically UA does not need B6 for these markets.

UA needs to stay the course we are already on growing DEN, and IAH. We need to continue to build up IAD as a reliever hub for EWR to allow EWR to focus more on O&D. At ORD perhaps UA could add either an early morning departure bank 05:30 and/or a later departure bank 22:30-23:30. At LAX there isn't much UA can do right now do to gate constraints, however we need to be ready to capitalize once terminal 9 is built and open. Finally at SFO UA just needs to keep their foot on the gas pedal and continue to grow that hub both domestically and internationally.

AA signing a codeshare agreement with AS and launching 2 international routes from a nonhub location is freaking amazing (BLR whoever would have guessed). But who knows if AA's decision will pay off. Once the excitement and shock wear off only time will tell if these moves will pay dividends, but UA does not need to follow AA's lead.


But they wouldn't need a big operation at both JFK and EWR, just keep enough slots at JFK for a few flights to hubs. Problem solved. I never envisioned a combined UA/B6 having or being allowed to have dual hubs in both JFK/EWR. The gains in BOS, Florida and the Caribbean would far outweigh the loss of JFK.

B6 would also give UA something it desperately needs, more mainline narrowbody aircraft. One thing UA desperately needs to do over the course of the next decade is upgauge its network, and its gonna need more new narrowbody aircraft to do so, not simply used A319's/73G's.

I agree 100% about IAD, I hope that hub becomes much bigger. ORD also needs to get bigger, but gate constraints plus intense competition from AA is keeping UA from achieving its full potential there.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:03 am

tkoenig95 wrote:
Why fix something that isn't broken? UA is strengthening its core and will do so for a while before charting into unknown territory.


They have a very large hole in the southeast. RDU is ripe for the picking with no dominant airline. UA needs to make it a hub. IAD has lost and gained flights over the decades like a celebrity on a diet. It just doesn't work. UA is almost non-existent in the southeast and they need to fix that.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:11 am

strfyr51 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
The ONLY thing UA needs? Is to establish ang Grow a S.E,US hub. and that will complete all they need to so. From there it's organic growth. As they have all 4 corners of the USA covered and they can then fuel long haul flying from the East and West Coasts as they'll have the east and west connected and they can shift their focus in whatever way they choose. Domestic flying will need more Narrow body airplanes if they do that so Boeing had damn sure get ready and step up their game on getting the 737MAX back in the Air and building it's 757 replacement


Where are they going to put a SE hub. Only viable options are ATL, CLT and BNA and all of those cities are spoken for.
when I was based at ORD
FLL, MIA. MCO to name a few ATL is a Delta Hub, CLT is an American Hub AND? I HAVE NO IDEA who hubs BNA. But it's not far enough away from ORD to make sense to me. I used to Drive through BNA when I was based at the WHQ to go see my daughter and family in ATL. Nice town but hardly as far south as I think United would need. Florida is the only US Corner without a United hub. And? We flew deep South flights from Miami before the bankruptcy and if I'm not mistaken ? UAL recently built a Hangar in Florida. So that should give them something to grow on to Expand upon. wouldn't you say?


Any Florida airport is ultra-competitive with terrible yields and too far south for any meaningful connections.

WN is the de-facto "hub" airline at BNA, and they are going to get a lot bigger there in the future. But if it weren't for WN, BNA would be a perfect city for a UA hub. Growing O&D, growing business community and centrally located in the eastern US for connections of all types. Its somewhat close to ORD, but not terribly where it would overlap too much. Supposedly, AA later regretted pulling their BNA hub and they have nearby hubs in both ORD and DFW. They made up for it in CLT, but the point still stands BNA could theoretically be a legacy hub if it weren't for WN.
 
bigb
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:12 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
tkoenig95 wrote:
Why fix something that isn't broken? UA is strengthening its core and will do so for a while before charting into unknown territory.


They have a very large hole in the southeast. RDU is ripe for the picking with no dominant airline. UA needs to make it a hub. IAD has lost and gained flights over the decades like a celebrity on a diet. It just doesn't work. UA is almost non-existent in the southeast and they need to fix that.


And what facilities does RDU have to support a full fledge hub? Plus IAD would be too close...

Everyone needs to calm down about UA needing a SE hub....
Last edited by bigb on Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
ordbosewr
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:12 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Stop the B6 codeshare nonsense. B6 competes directly with UA at EWR and brings nothing of any value to UA.


I actually said "UA can't expect to try to acquire anyone."

Then I said "If they try to get B6 into *A I just don't think the regulators will allow codesharing/etc."

Then I said "My guess is UA stays the path."

UA needs more mainline airplanes to fly more routes from hubs. I do not think they should open up any point to point routes, they have enough to grow from hubs. They can connect more to the hubs they have. point to point flying while nice, is not what draws higher revenue....(IMHO)
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:15 am

bigb wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
tkoenig95 wrote:
Why fix something that isn't broken? UA is strengthening its core and will do so for a while before charting into unknown territory.


They have a very large hole in the southeast. RDU is ripe for the picking with no dominant airline. UA needs to make it a hub. IAD has lost and gained flights over the decades like a celebrity on a diet. It just doesn't work. UA is almost non-existent in the southeast and they need to fix that.


And what facilities does RDU have to support a full fledge hub? Plus IAD would be too close...

Everyone needs to calm down about UA needing a SE hub....


IAD would be scaled back to just the flights that can support O/D traffic. And what's your point about facilities? Do you think ATL and DFW had all of those concourses in place just waiting for AA and
DL to come along one day? Of course not. If UA were to offer RDU a hub they would be more than willing to work with them and build the necessary facilities.
 
PanAm788
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Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:29 am

DL’s core strength isn’t where it serves, it’s operational strength and a consistent product. This leads to people (me being one of them) becoming willing to spend a little more just to fly DL. UA has realized this and has massively doubled down on both operations and product.

AA on the other hand is still lost and seem to have a strategy straight of out 2006. They are an LCC in Y but still offer international F (that doesn’t come close to matching the competition). Their operations are a mess and they do not have a consistent product that people want to fly. Like UA 2 years ago, they compete solely on price and convenience.


The AS / AA move is bold. Network wise it can make some sense (although regulators will get involved if they get too cozy), but it’s almost like lipstick on a pig. AA needs to rework its core strategy if it ever wants to challenge DL to be the best and most profitable US3 carrier. So to answer OP, no I don’t think UA needs to retaliate, they should keep focusing on what they are doing and slowly add more P2P focus city routes as they improve their operations and product.
 
joeljack
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Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2005 12:38 pm

Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:13 am

First, I love this topic!

As more and more airlines both LCC and majors add point to point flying, that will reduce the need to transfer at a hub and weaken UA's strategy. Where UA is smart is connecting the small airports to hubs that will be impacted less by point to point of AA and DL and LCC carriers but they will still feel the affect.

The following is happening that will reduce the need to connect at a hub. I'm not say eliminate the need, I'm saying reduce the need.

DL: Adding point to point flying in medium to large non-hub markets. Even some smaller markets too here and there.
AA: Same as DL, just not as far along.
Allegiant: Expanding rapidly point to point.
Frontier: Expanding rapidly point to point, mainly larger markets than Allegiant.
Moxy/ Breeze: Neglected markets for point to point.
New UA Executive Airline: Same as Breeze?

All said, what will the US market be like in 10 years with the expansion of point to point? It will be more like Europe where the hub only carriers are much less strong. DL and now AA have seen what has happened in Europe over past 20 years and want to make sure they get a slice of the pie too and position for very long term which is smart!

I agree, UA needs to strengthen their hubs and get the small RJ's off of many routes to get their natural share back but they also need to look outside their hubs if they want to be strong in the 10-20 year time frame. I really think that cities with large UA Frequent Flyer bases would be good places to start, like AUS. They really don't have many left as they have really given up the large UA Frequent flyer bases to DL and AA like BOS, SEA, CLE and even smaller cities like OMA where UA once owned are now dominated by WN, DL and AA.

Once the max isn't grounded and they get all the A319 and 737's from WN, they are going to have like 100 new narrowbody aircraft in the next 18 months or so! That is crazy to think about! I really think in the next 24 months you'll start to see UA add some point to point but I think given up on CLE was stupid with this approach...they gave away their Frequent flyers to DL and AA which are difficult to get back and take decades.
 
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psa1011
Posts: 493
Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2011 9:37 pm

Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:51 am

I suppose UA will want to start SFO-BLR to compete.
 
x1234
Posts: 694
Joined: Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:50 pm

Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:54 am

SFO-BOM is even more important than BLR. The can launch EWR-BLR tomorrow.
Last edited by x1234 on Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
OneX123
Posts: 78
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:08 am

Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:54 am

N649DL wrote:
Aside SFO, forget the bloodbath on the West Coast. The Low hanging fruit would be for UAL to merge with JetBlue: Divest some of EWR (already eroding their market share somewhat by LCC's), get back into JFK, get FLL and MCO as true hubs in the South, and focus on being the core East Coast carrier with EWR / JFK / BOS / IAD hubs.

The new UA color scheme and B6's would complement each other as well as both carriers having comped contracts with DirecTV on many of their planes (plus IIRC, B6 has free Wi-Fi.) Also they can leverage B6's "Mint" to reinvigorate a rather stale Transcon product by UA. B6 can finally rebound with better operational performance by way of UA as well.

I know it sounds nuts, it actually makes sense in a lot of ways for UA to get ahead. For instance if UA decided to forfeit all gates in the new Terminal A at EWR, the deal could be sealed very quickly. If this were to happen, trust me, both AA and DL would s*** the bed. EWR and JFK would have to be downsized (especially EWR) but that's good for competition anyway. UA is already favoring domestic traffic down to IAD instead of EWR anyway these days. AA especially because UA / B6 would own the NYC-Caribbean market which AA was king of back in the 1990s.

B6 wants TATL routes and both are in a bit of an identity crisis, so what do they both have to loose? (aside consolidation at the New York Airports which are nuts in terms of gates and infrastructure anyway.)



Perhaps you have the wrong understanding of a Hub? Why would any airline Hub FLL and MCO? United already routes a majority of South America traffic through Houston. There’s no space in Boston. It’s much more difficult to create a hub than you lead on here
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1916
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:09 am

I agree that FL is a no-go for a hub. It's too far out of the way. WN wouldn't be an obstacle if IA really wanted a hub at BNA. The problem with BNA is that it is space constrained with no room for expansion. SAV would be an interesting choice but I don't know if there's enough local sand for a decent O/D mix. RDU seems to be the only city in the region without a hub that could offer decent O/D. It could pretumich be a copy and paste of CLT. Just with much nicer facilities. I haven't been to CLT since 2010 but with the exception of the international concourse it was so dark and cramped. But look who had their hub there...
 
dstblj52
Posts: 255
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:27 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
I agree that FL is a no-go for a hub. It's too far out of the way. WN wouldn't be an obstacle if IA really wanted a hub at BNA. The problem with BNA is that it is space constrained with no room for expansion. SAV would be an interesting choice but I don't know if there's enough local sand for a decent O/D mix. RDU seems to be the only city in the region without a hub that could offer decent O/D. It could pretumich be a copy and paste of CLT. Just with much nicer facilities. I haven't been to CLT since 2010 but with the exception of the international concourse it was so dark and cramped. But look who had their hub there...

I disagree if UA started to build a hub in BNA at the very least swa would give them a bloody nose because it looks like we're seeing a convergence of network strategy where the legacies are no longer offering exclusively hub routings anymore and that's a big part of WN advantage
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 625
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:29 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
I agree that FL is a no-go for a hub. It's too far out of the way. WN wouldn't be an obstacle if IA really wanted a hub at BNA. The problem with BNA is that it is space constrained with no room for expansion. SAV would be an interesting choice but I don't know if there's enough local sand for a decent O/D mix. RDU seems to be the only city in the region without a hub that could offer decent O/D. It could pretumich be a copy and paste of CLT. Just with much nicer facilities. I haven't been to CLT since 2010 but with the exception of the international concourse it was so dark and cramped. But look who had their hub there...


What?

BNA has plenty of space. They could build a whole second terminal for themselves if they wanted to. The problem there is WN is dominant and growing and now possibly NK could be growing as well. Too much competition

SAV? are you kidding me? Way too small of a market.

RDU is too far east and too close to IAD. And they truly don’t have the space for gates for a large hub operation.
 
dstblj52
Posts: 255
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:31 am

joeljack wrote:
First, I love this topic!

As more and more airlines both LCC and majors add point to point flying, that will reduce the need to transfer at a hub and weaken UA's strategy. Where UA is smart is connecting the small airports to hubs that will be impacted less by point to point of AA and DL and LCC carriers but they will still feel the affect.

The following is happening that will reduce the need to connect at a hub. I'm not say eliminate the need, I'm saying reduce the need.

DL: Adding point to point flying in medium to large non-hub markets. Even some smaller markets too here and there.
AA: Same as DL, just not as far along.
Allegiant: Expanding rapidly point to point.
Frontier: Expanding rapidly point to point, mainly larger markets than Allegiant.
Moxy/ Breeze: Neglected markets for point to point.
New UA Executive Airline: Same as Breeze?

All said, what will the US market be like in 10 years with the expansion of point to point? It will be more like Europe where the hub only carriers are much less strong. DL and now AA have seen what has happened in Europe over past 20 years and want to make sure they get a slice of the pie too and position for very long term which is smart!

I agree, UA needs to strengthen their hubs and get the small RJ's off of many routes to get their natural share back but they also need to look outside their hubs if they want to be strong in the 10-20 year time frame. I really think that cities with large UA Frequent Flyer bases would be good places to start, like AUS. They really don't have many left as they have really given up the large UA Frequent flyer bases to DL and AA like BOS, SEA, CLE and even smaller cities like OMA where UA once owned are now dominated by WN, DL and AA.

Once the max isn't grounded and they get all the A319 and 737's from WN, they are going to have like 100 new narrowbody aircraft in the next 18 months or so! That is crazy to think about! I really think in the next 24 months you'll start to see UA add some point to point but I think given up on CLE was stupid with this approach...they gave away their Frequent flyers to DL and AA which are difficult to get back and take decades.

I suspect that Deltas point to point adds are purely opportunistic except for maybe the focus cities basically everything else is we think we can hit profitability standards flying between X and Y cities with Z plane X times, if we have another major recession or routes turn unprofitable they will be gone tomorrow and in fact offer a good opportunity when the next recession hits to reduce capacity while protecting your network
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1916
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:36 am

BNAMealer wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I agree that FL is a no-go for a hub. It's too far out of the way. WN wouldn't be an obstacle if IA really wanted a hub at BNA. The problem with BNA is that it is space constrained with no room for expansion. SAV would be an interesting choice but I don't know if there's enough local sand for a decent O/D mix. RDU seems to be the only city in the region without a hub that could offer decent O/D. It could pretumich be a copy and paste of CLT. Just with much nicer facilities. I haven't been to CLT since 2010 but with the exception of the international concourse it was so dark and cramped. But look who had their hub there...


What?

BNA has plenty of space. They could build a whole second terminal for themselves if they wanted to. The problem there is WN is dominant and growing and now possibly NK could be growing as well. Too much competition

SAV? are you kidding me? Way too small of a market.

RDU is too far east and too close to IAD. And they truly don’t have the space for gates for a large hub operation.



That's not what someone told me here a few months ago. They said the interstate changes would prohibit expansion at BNA. And the point of RDU would be to eliminate IAD as a hub. It's not effective for the region it is supposed to serve. DL doesn't seem to mind RDU's close proximity to ATL. They use it as a focus city and even have a CDG flight. Same with AA at CLT.
 
hereandthere41
Posts: 59
Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2012 5:31 am

Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:37 am

How many days has it been since Sprint and Tmobile got the green light? There was speculation last year that the outcome could provide a clue about how this administration felt about large mergers. Never say never.
Move #1 AS/AA tie up.
Stay tuned.
 
PANAMsterdam
Posts: 63
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:45 am

Re: Time for UA to step up?

Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:33 am

Maybe United can open a new hub in Cleveland :stirthepot:

(they have to pay CLE Terminal D rent till 2027 anyway, so why not :duck:)
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