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LAX772LR
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:42 pm

jsfr wrote:
Agree that nobody knows what the world looks like in two weeks let alone three years.... but....

I was in Oz when this was an Asian only crisis and had quite some angst from Mrs Fr about transiting in Hong Kong to get back to Europe. I do believe that post Covid it will become a thing for the general public to have P2P and the benefits of avoiding the “risks” of being stuck in or transiting through a “foreign” country/continent will become more desirable....

A positive for sunrise.

That's a cute theory.... but has almost no historical precedent to back it up.

It's not like this is the first pandemic to strike hard at the airline industry, even in relatively modern times. Hell, it's barely been more than a decade since the last such big occurrence, and barely more than a half-decade since the one before that.

We saw no major shift against international transit that could be specifically/directly attributed to the fears you mention; and really no major shifts beyond what was already being worked towards by carriers (e.g. SQ, QF, NZ, BR, etc) with market geographies that could benefit from it.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:47 pm

VV wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
cpd wrote:
I would agree, the sun is likely going to set on this Sunrise project. I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen at all.

I disagree. Delayed certainly, but it is too important for QF survival for it to be dropped.


The initial plan for the first Project Sunrise flight is in the first half 2023. It is not tomorrow. It is in three years.

The decision has been made to go ahead with the project regardless pilots' position and the aircraft is already selected.

The only thing that has been delayed is the formal purchase agreement.

My question was if Qantas has changed anything concerning their decision to start the Project Sunrise flights in the first half 2023.

Is there any reason to believe they would delay the entry into service?


Don't take this the wrong way, but you are completely in denial. Qantas can't say with any certainty what their route network will look like in 3 weeks, let alone 3 years.

Two month ago the decision was made to go ahead with the project. The decision had also been made for what capacity and network would look like for the rest of 2020. Guess what? Plans change. And right now they are change by the day, if not more frequently.

Qantas haven't reconsidered their decision per se at this stage about whether or not the project is going ahead, just kicked that decision 9 months down the road, as all their attention is making sure there is still an airline in 9 months.
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lightsaber
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:01 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
VV wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
I disagree. Delayed certainly, but it is too important for QF survival for it to be dropped.


The initial plan for the first Project Sunrise flight is in the first half 2023. It is not tomorrow. It is in three years.

The decision has been made to go ahead with the project regardless pilots' position and the aircraft is already selected.

The only thing that has been delayed is the formal purchase agreement.

My question was if Qantas has changed anything concerning their decision to start the Project Sunrise flights in the first half 2023.

Is there any reason to believe they would delay the entry into service?


Don't take this the wrong way, but you are completely in denial. Qantas can't say with any certainty what their route network will look like in 3 weeks, let alone 3 years.

Two month ago the decision was made to go ahead with the project. The decision had also been made for what capacity and network would look like for the rest of 2020. Guess what? Plans change. And right now they are change by the day, if not more frequently.

Qantas haven't reconsidered their decision per se at this stage about whether or not the project is going ahead, just kicked that decision 9 months down the road, as all their attention is making sure there is still an airline in 9 months.

I agree the decision on project Sunrise is delayed.

We have to see how the market recovers. IMHO the next three months must go by before we can rationally even begin discussing. All business must see how much they will travel. Small business is so hurt, their business and leisure travel will be down for months. This hit far more GDP than SARS or 9/11. Multiples of both combined.

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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:03 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
VV wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
I disagree. Delayed certainly, but it is too important for QF survival for it to be dropped.


The initial plan for the first Project Sunrise flight is in the first half 2023. It is not tomorrow. It is in three years.

The decision has been made to go ahead with the project regardless pilots' position and the aircraft is already selected.

The only thing that has been delayed is the formal purchase agreement.

My question was if Qantas has changed anything concerning their decision to start the Project Sunrise flights in the first half 2023.

Is there any reason to believe they would delay the entry into service?


Don't take this the wrong way, but you are completely in denial. Qantas can't say with any certainty what their route network will look like in 3 weeks, let alone 3 years.

Two month ago the decision was made to go ahead with the project. The decision had also been made for what capacity and network would look like for the rest of 2020. Guess what? Plans change. And right now they are change by the day, if not more frequently.

Qantas haven't reconsidered their decision per se at this stage about whether or not the project is going ahead, just kicked that decision 9 months down the road, as all their attention is making sure there is still an airline in 9 months.

I agree the decision on project Sunrise is delayed.

We have to see how the market recovers. IMHO the next three months must go by before we can rationally even begin discussing. All business must see how much they will travel. Small business is so hurt, their business and leisure travel will be down for months. This hit far more GDP than SARS or 9/11. Multiples of both combined.

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DavidByrne
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:26 am

lightsaber wrote:
We have to see how the market recovers. IMHO the next three months must go by before we can rationally even begin discussing. All business must see how much they will travel. Small business is so hurt, their business and leisure travel will be down for months. This hit far more GDP than SARS or 9/11. Multiples of both combined.

Lightsaber

Don't hold your breath. If the economic commentators who suggest that the impact may be greater than that of the Great Depression are correct, we won't be talking about months, but years. How many carriers will still be around by then? Only those who have some government support.

I foresee that private ownership will seriously decline in major airlines in the future and that the survivors will be those in which governments have taken a financial stake. Not a political statement, but realistic. Which airlines have a balance sheet right now that will allow them to pay all their loans when needed, and keep the operation mothballed and ready to be re-invigorated, without government support? I'd suggest very, very few.
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cpd
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:27 am

Massive numbers of people are out of work, businesses are closing or in critical conditions, nobody will be thinking of non stop flying anywhere for any of the foreseeable future.

This is a total catastrophe. At the least Sunrise needs to sunset for a few years, maybe even more.

Some businesses may abandon flying totally and use just video conferencing.

Flying as we know it will be very different going forward.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:09 am

With plenty of deferments and cancellations to come, the delivery slots will probably not be any issue for Airbus. Qantas won't need to probably confirm until the end of the year.

One of the things the current crisis might do is make point to point travel more sort after, so i could very much see the business case strengthening.

Demand will still be subdued for at least a year after the main part of this crisis is over, but with the strong cultural links, there will still be demand for trips between the UK and Australia.
 
VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:10 am

Emphasis added.

Pcoder wrote:
With plenty of deferments and cancellations to come, the delivery slots will probably not be any issue for Airbus. Qantas won't need to probably confirm until the end of the year.

One of the things the current crisis might do is make point to point travel more sort after, so i could very much see the business case strengthening.

Demand will still be subdued for at least a year after the main part of this crisis is over, but with the strong cultural links, there will still be demand for trips between the UK and Australia.


The first sentence may be very true, but would Airbus develop the modification mentioned in Qantas press release in December 2019 before the purchase order?.
    "Airbus will add an additional fuel tank and slightly increase the maximum takeoff weight to deliver the performance required for Sunrise routes."
https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... t-sunrise/

So far the only thing Qantas said is that the purchase order will be done by the end of the year instead of this month. Unfortunately they did not say anything about the debut of the Sunrise flights. At this stage we have to consider that the airline is still planning to start the flights in the first half of 2023, until further information by Qantas. This is exactly my question, "Is there any reason to believe Qantas would delay the entry into service of Project Sunrise from H1 2023 to a later date?"

As far as I know, the decision to order A350-1000 is already taken. The only thing that has been delayed so far is the formal Purchase Agreement signature.

You mentioned that the business case might even be stronger and the cultural link between the UK and Australia would remain strong, so basically it means that there is no need to delay the entry into service IF the fleet is available in H1 2023.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:48 am

Oh my. People are still in so much denial about how serious this situation is. There are NO decisions that can be relied upon as still valid in the post-Covid era. it will be back to Square One, and I'm certain that Project Sunrise will be very many squares down the track.
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VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:53 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Oh my. People are still in so much denial about how serious this situation is. There are NO decisions that can be relied upon as still valid in the post-Covid era. it will be back to Square One, and I'm certain that Project Sunrise will be very many squares down the track.


The situation is dire today.
The question is obviously if you expect it to continue in 2023.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:53 am

VV wrote:

So far the only thing Qantas said is that the purchase order will be done by the end of the year instead of this month. Unfortunately they did not say anything about the debut of the Sunrise flights. At this stage we have to consider that the airline is still planning to start the flights in the first half of 2023, until further information by Qantas. This is exactly my question, "Is there any reason to believe Qantas would delay the entry into service of Project Sunrise from H1 2023 to a later date?"

Yes, corona virus being a total unknown in how it will affect the market, if your asking for a one way or the other with evidence pointing toward one or another outcome you are out of luck so stop looking. It’s like may daughter asking what’s for tea whilst I’m cleaning dog sick from the carpet. There’s probably an answer but really I’m not thinking about it now.

VV wrote:
As far as I know, the decision to order A350-1000 is already taken. The only thing that has been delayed so far is the formal Purchase Agreement signature.

Well agreement is a binary thing, it’s either agreed or not. In this instance the agreement is dependent on the formal part of it so I would say that it isn’t agreed. It would be like telling the bank I have fully agreed to pay the bill but just haven’t formally signed the cheque, they will carr not a jot.

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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:32 am

flipdewaf wrote:
VV wrote:
As far as I know, the decision to order A350-1000 is already taken. The only thing that has been delayed so far is the formal Purchase Agreement signature.

Well agreement is a binary thing, it’s either agreed or not. In this instance the agreement is dependent on the formal part of it so I would say that it isn’t agreed. It would be like telling the bank I have fully agreed to pay the bill but just haven’t formally signed the cheque, they will carr not a jot.

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My understanding is that the Airbus proposal was QFs preferred choice based on both the technical reply as well as the offered or proposed airframe cost. From memory, I believe that was based on a due date of order by the end of March. All QF have requested at this stage is an extension of the offer until the end of the calendar year.

I’m unaware of any commercial agreement being signed so far as both parties would have formally announced this. If there has been, by all means, please correct me.

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Scotron12
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:56 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
VV wrote:
As far as I know, the decision to order A350-1000 is already taken. The only thing that has been delayed so far is the formal Purchase Agreement signature.

Well agreement is a binary thing, it’s either agreed or not. In this instance the agreement is dependent on the formal part of it so I would say that it isn’t agreed. It would be like telling the bank I have fully agreed to pay the bill but just haven’t formally signed the cheque, they will carr not a jot.

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My understanding is that the Airbus proposal was QFs preferred choice based on both the technical reply as well as the offered or proposed airframe cost. From memory, I believe that was based on a due date of order by the end of March. All QF have requested at this stage is an extension of the offer until the end of the calendar year.

I’m unaware of any commercial agreement being signed so far as both parties would have formally announced this. If there has been, by all means, please correct me.

Rgds,
C1973


No formal order in that QF have signed any agreement. I would assume QF have more pressing issues to deal with right now than the firming of an order with Airbus.

All they have requested of Airbus is a delay. If the delay in ordering the A350 pushes the start of PS to 2024, sobeit.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:42 am

Scotron12 wrote:
...

No formal order in that QF have signed any agreement. I would assume QF have more pressing issues to deal with right now than the firming of an order with Airbus.

All they have requested of Airbus is a delay. If the delay in ordering the A350 pushes the start of PS to 2024, sobeit.


But Qantas has not said anything about the possible delay of the actual Project Sunrise entry into service despite the delay in the Purchase Order signing.

If they did not include any EIS delay in their announcement of the order delay, most probably they still hope they can achieve the targeted EIS in H1 2023.

Therefore we should assume the target is still for an EIS in H1 2023 until further notice.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:05 am

Did nobody read what the CEO actually said? Executive Traveller quotes Alan Joyce as saying -

“Airbus had given us the delay until the end of March," Joyce said. "That was based on the fact the slots were potentially valuable and could be sold to other airlines. We think in the current environment that may not be the case, nobody seems to be ordering aircraft.

"We would rather wait for the coronavirus issue to be out of the way before we put a firm aircraft order in for the A350," Joyce explained.

--

Anyone with a brain would see that Airbus wanted Qantas to commit to the production slots sooner rather than later as they had other airlines potentially wanting aircraft delivered then.

Since everything has gone tits up, Qantas believe those other airlines no longer will be chasing those slots and that Airbus will let them delay placing the order until the end of year. They're still the same slots with the same 2023 delivery dates.

All the speculation and panic is really a waste of time. Try to focus on the facts rather than innumerable what if situations based on nothing.
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VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:11 am

ClassicLover wrote:
Did nobody read what the CEO actually said? Executive Traveller quotes Alan Joyce as saying -

“Airbus had given us the delay until the end of March," Joyce said. "That was based on the fact the slots were potentially valuable and could be sold to other airlines. We think in the current environment that may not be the case, nobody seems to be ordering aircraft.

"We would rather wait for the coronavirus issue to be out of the way before we put a firm aircraft order in for the A350," Joyce explained.

--

Anyone with a brain would see that Airbus wanted Qantas to commit to the production slots sooner rather than later as they had other airlines potentially wanting aircraft delivered then.

Since everything has gone tits up, Qantas believe those other airlines no longer will be chasing those slots and that Airbus will let them delay placing the order until the end of year. They're still the same slots with the same 2023 delivery dates.

All the speculation and panic is really a waste of time. Try to focus on the facts rather than innumerable what if situations based on nothing.


I agree with this.

It also means that Airbus will continue developing the additional tank and the MTOW increase that were mentioned by Qantas in their December 2019 communication regardless of the timing of the Purchase Agreement signing.

Unless Qantas or Airbus says something different in the future.
 
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:51 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Oh my. People are still in so much denial about how serious this situation is. There are NO decisions that can be relied upon as still valid in the post-Covid era. it will be back to Square One, and I'm certain that Project Sunrise will be very many squares down the track.


Is the situation more difficult than in 2001 WTC attack, 2002 bombings (including Bali bombing) and 2003 SARS?

This crisis started only in January and most probably will get much better in July 2020 when most people will have been in contact with the virus and many would have recovered and when the daily deaths will have gone beyond the peak.
 
lajaca
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:14 am

Not sure how anyone can say this will get much better in July 2020. Maybe yes, maybe no. Otherwise that’s complete speculation. Maybe based on a lay understanding of facts, but still...speculation. Would otherwise advise against statement of certainty.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:15 am

VV wrote:
[Is the situation more difficult than in 2001 WTC attack, 2002 bombings (including Bali bombing) and 2003 SARS?

Yes, without a shadow of a doubt. There’s no possible comparison. If that’s not self evident . . . words fail me.
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:11 pm

VV wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Oh my. People are still in so much denial about how serious this situation is. There are NO decisions that can be relied upon as still valid in the post-Covid era. it will be back to Square One, and I'm certain that Project Sunrise will be very many squares down the track.


Is the situation more difficult than in 2001 WTC attack, 2002 bombings (including Bali bombing) and 2003 SARS?

This crisis started only in January and most probably will get much better in July 2020 when most people will have been in contact with the virus and many would have recovered and when the daily deaths will have gone beyond the peak.

I’m guessing you might not be old enough to remember those years personally. That’s ok, everyone’s memory has to start somewhere - for example I struggle to remember more than snippets of the decade I was born. Anyway, do go and have a bit more of a read about the 2001-2003 time period. As someone who remembers it somewhat vividly I can share that this situation is definitely more difficult.

September 11 definitely caused an upheaval at the time - North American airspace was shut for 3 days, and airlines took quite a financial hit from a combination of that, a sense of uncertainty, and an economic downturn. I don’t recall any of the major airlines in North America grounding upwards of 50% of their fleet or cutting international flying back almost entirely.

The impact of the Bali bombing was fairly minimal in the scheme of things - Indonesian carriers continued operating, as did Australian ones. Tourism to Bali took a hit especially, and in Australia with it coming so soon after September 11 2001 it definitely caused a bit of unease in the community, but the more significant event on the aviation landscape then was still the ongoing changes as a result of the collapse of Ansett in 2001 (something which while hastened by September 11 had really been an inevitability for a number of years).

SARS is probably the best shot at finding an equivalent, but it was very regional - Hong Kong and China were the hardest hit, and while I don’t remember the aviation impact in China, in Hong Kong Cathay Pacific cut capacity by about 40% for a two-month period at the peak. It is also worth noting that the over the course of the SARS outbreak there were 8096 cases and 774 deaths (source: https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/ta ... _04_21/en/ ) while in contrast the current COVID-19 outbreak has seen 372,757 cases (39,827 of which were new in the 24 hours up to 10:00 CET 24 March 2020) and 16,231 deaths (1722 of which were new in the 24 hours up to 10:00 CET 24 March 2020) (source: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... 703b2c40_2 )

In summary, what we are seeing now is very much different to 2001, 2002, and 2003, and indeed to anything we have seen at least since 1945, if not earlier.

V/F
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VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:54 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
VV wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Oh my. People are still in so much denial about how serious this situation is. There are NO decisions that can be relied upon as still valid in the post-Covid era. it will be back to Square One, and I'm certain that Project Sunrise will be very many squares down the track.


Is the situation more difficult than in 2001 WTC attack, 2002 bombings (including Bali bombing) and 2003 SARS?

This crisis started only in January and most probably will get much better in July 2020 when most people will have been in contact with the virus and many would have recovered and when the daily deaths will have gone beyond the peak.

I’m guessing you might not be old enough to remember those years personally. That’s ok, everyone’s memory has to start somewhere - for example I struggle to remember more than snippets of the decade I was born. Anyway, do go and have a bit more of a read about the 2001-2003 time period. As someone who remembers it somewhat vividly I can share that this situation is definitely more difficult.
...



You are not serious, are you?
Are you old enough to remember those thing or are you too old to simply remember?

The three consecutive years were devastating and shifted the traffic volume curve by about 2.5 years to the right. Basically you got back to 2000 traffic level in 2004.
In addition just after the 9/11 attack there was a lot of security measures that pushed traffic down during months.
You should look into the statistics of air travel during those three years.

The current situation started only in January and with a little bit of luck in July 2020 most of the air travel volume would get back to a more decent level.
In China, air traffic is now back to 30%. I guess in several weeks they would be at 60% and the going to about normal in July.

I am not sure why you said this time is more difficult that those three year 2001-2003. It is not.
 
mig17
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:03 pm

Qantas is like any other airlines or any other business for what maters. All investment are suspended until further notice. The priority, after avoiding propagation, is to go through the COVID-19 "lockdown" without running out of cash. Then, it will be to restart with residual cash. And only after that, it will be damage assesment and wayforward.
So if after that Qantas is still there, with banks backing it, the Sunrise project will resume. Because, unless Australia or the UK are decimated by this epidemic, the need to fly between both country will still exist as it has since decades. I even suspect that the need to fly non-stop for Qantas to exist in the market will even be stronger.
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:45 pm

VV wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
VV wrote:

Is the situation more difficult than in 2001 WTC attack, 2002 bombings (including Bali bombing) and 2003 SARS?

This crisis started only in January and most probably will get much better in July 2020 when most people will have been in contact with the virus and many would have recovered and when the daily deaths will have gone beyond the peak.

I’m guessing you might not be old enough to remember those years personally. That’s ok, everyone’s memory has to start somewhere - for example I struggle to remember more than snippets of the decade I was born. Anyway, do go and have a bit more of a read about the 2001-2003 time period. As someone who remembers it somewhat vividly I can share that this situation is definitely more difficult.
...



You are not serious, are you?
Are you old enough to remember those thing or are you too old to simply remember?

The three consecutive years were devastating and shifted the traffic volume curve by about 2.5 years to the right. Basically you got back to 2000 traffic level in 2004.
In addition just after the 9/11 attack there was a lot of security measures that pushed traffic down during months.
You should look into the statistics of air travel during those three years.

The current situation started only in January and with a little bit of luck in July 2020 most of the air travel volume would get back to a more decent level.
In China, air traffic is now back to 30%. I guess in several weeks they would be at 60% and the going to about normal in July.

I am not sure why you said this time is more difficult that those three year 2001-2003. It is not.

Well you’re either being an extreme optimist (which is great, I think it is important to have an optimistic mindset, but it is also important to look to the future through the lens of the reality of the current situation), or, to use the Australian vernacular since we are discussing an Australian operation, a deadset goose.

Yes, as you say 2001-2003 were difficult times. But in those times we didn’t see air travel completely shut down for weeks if not months at a time at a continent-wide level except for essential services like we are currently seeing in Europe. We did not see it become almost impossible to travel between countries as we are currently seeing. We did not see numerous countries go into multi-week lockdowns where only essential workers are permitted to leave their homes other than to buy food or medicine.

It is great that traffic is recovering in China. But look at the trajectory of the illness elsewhere. Italy now has nearly double the deaths from COVID-19 that China had. Spain I believe has just passed China. Remember these are numerical figures, not as a percentage of population. This is catastrophic for these countries. There are many other countries currently on the same trajectory which are now scrambling to respond.

Have a look at what is coming from IATA: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-03-24-01/ They estimate revenues will be lowered by $252 billion in 2020. Back in the 2000s, they talked about revenues falling by $23 billion between 2000 and 2002. So we’re talking an order of magnitude higher, in less than half the time-span. They are hopeful of an economic recovery in 2021 on the back of stimulus measures, but at the same time you have airlines around the world describing how they will emerge from this as different, smaller operations.

I wish I could share your optimism that by 2023 it will be as if 2020 had never happened, and Project Sunrise will go ahead unhindered. But everything I am seeing says that it will be many years before we return to 2020 levels of demand.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:23 pm

What makes this different from other virus outbreaks?

* International air travel will not recover meaningfully until there is a vaccine and people can travel without fear of being contaminated by fellow passengers. I suspect that a vaccination certificate will be required by many countries before you're even allowed to board a flight to that country. And a vaccine isn't expected for twelve months - and when it is will not be available for everyone who wants it for a period of time, I'd suggest.

* Even after lock-downs are removed, countries will be extremely wary of letting into the country any passengers who MIGHT have coronavirus. Two weeks' isolation will surely remain in force for arrivals in many countries until the threat of reinfecting the domestic population is absolutely gone. That will kill all tourism and business traffic for the foreseeable future.

* CoVid 19 is extremely contagious and many people who infect others are not even aware that they have the virus. Countries that refuse to have their populations self-isolate will be reaping the rewards of their strategy for many, many months to come. In particular, I can see "normal" service to the USA being a way into the future because the government is still in denial about the seriousness of the situation.

* A prolonged shutdown is going to destroy the airline industry and the airlines that survive will still be in survival mode for a long time, especially figuring out how they will pay their loans and leases with little income coming in the door. They'll be focusing on re-establishing the bread-and-butter routes first and foremost before embarking on new ventures like PS.

* A prolonged shutdown is also going to trash the global economy. I don't think people have given much thought to how this might really affect travel demand. So many people will be unemployed and so many businesses will have closed permanently that taxpayer support for many individuals will need to continue for a long time. Expect taxes to rise significantly to cover the cost of this, spread around a smaller number of businesses and employed people, and for austerity to be the order of the day. Not an environment in which business travel will flourish.

The one point I'll concede is that longer term there may be an increased preference for point-to-point nonstop travel as opposed to transferring via a hub. However, given the inflated fuel costs of ULH services compared with two-sector flights over the same distance (and notwithstanding the drop in fuel prices) I suspect that airlines will be slow to reintroduce ULH flights when they can operate with lower costs on a stopping service. It's not as if PS will face direct competition: there's no other carrier to my knowledge which has hinted at such long haul flights. In fact, some have explicitly ruled them out. QF will not be pursuing competitive advantage during the "recovery period" but just seeking to re-establish a basic network. I suggest nonstop flights over those sorts of stage lengths will be five years away, if not more.

Domestic travel in most countries will likely resume more quickly than this. But international travel - don't hold your breath. And don't get sucked in by AJ's bravado. He's not calling the shots - the virus is.
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scbriml
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:24 pm

VV wrote:
The three consecutive years were devastating and shifted the traffic volume curve by about 2.5 years to the right. Basically you got back to 2000 traffic level in 2004.


Define “devastating” - global traffic post 2001 levelled off for two years before 2004 saw it climbing on the same trajectory it was on before. It’s not like it fell off the cliff that we’re seeing now. America was clearly impacted more than anyone, but globally 2001-2003 inclusive were just a pause in the ever growing numbers of passenger carried.

2000 - 1.674 billion passengers carried
2001 - 1.655
2002 - 1.627
2003 - 1.665
2004 - 1.889

Source (with nice graph): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AIR.PSGR

VV wrote:
The current situation started only in January and with a little bit of luck in July 2020 most of the air travel volume would get back to a more decent level.
In China, air traffic is now back to 30%. I guess in several weeks they would be at 60% and the going to about normal in July.

I am not sure why you said this time is more difficult that those three year 2001-2003. It is not.


You’re not serious, are you? Define “more decent level”.
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Hornberger
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:49 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
* International air travel will not recover meaningfully until there is a vaccine and people can travel without fear of being contaminated by fellow passengers. I suspect that a vaccination certificate will be required by many countries before you're even allowed to board a flight to that country. And a vaccine isn't expected for twelve months - and when it is will not be available for everyone who wants it for a period of time, I'd suggest.

I don't think they will wait for vaccine to re-open to international border.

I have read that the UK are rolling out a mass produced tests can gives a result in 15 minutes. Assuming that they work, the requirement will be that every passenger will be tested at check-in, and then again at inbound immigration at their destination country. This will be in addition to travel bans and/or self-isolation requirements for people travelling from areas with an active outbreak.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:20 pm

Hornberger wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
* International air travel will not recover meaningfully until there is a vaccine and people can travel without fear of being contaminated by fellow passengers. I suspect that a vaccination certificate will be required by many countries before you're even allowed to board a flight to that country. And a vaccine isn't expected for twelve months - and when it is will not be available for everyone who wants it for a period of time, I'd suggest.

I don't think they will wait for vaccine to re-open to international border.

I have read that the UK are rolling out a mass produced tests can gives a result in 15 minutes. Assuming that they work, the requirement will be that every passenger will be tested at check-in, and then again at inbound immigration at their destination country. This will be in addition to travel bans and/or self-isolation requirements for people travelling from areas with an active outbreak.

Agree that borders will reopen before a vaccine is available. In fact, most borders are still open, albeit on a very restrictive basis. But a meaningful recovery isn’t going to happen until people can travel without putting their lives at risk.
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AngMoh
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:36 am

scbriml wrote:
VV wrote:
The three consecutive years were devastating and shifted the traffic volume curve by about 2.5 years to the right. Basically you got back to 2000 traffic level in 2004.


Define “devastating” - global traffic post 2001 levelled off for two years before 2004 saw it climbing on the same trajectory it was on before. It’s not like it fell off the cliff that we’re seeing now. America was clearly impacted more than anyone, but globally 2001-2003 inclusive were just a pause in the ever growing numbers of passenger carried.


It also depends where you are. Actually the ranking for me right now is (worst ranked #1)

1997 Asian Financial Crisis
2020 COVID-19 (can go to #1)
2003 SARS
2001 9/11

I landed in 1997 in Gimpo (then only airport in Seoul) and there was 1 car in the carpark which was our driver to pick us up. Terminal even more empty than today.The immigration officer checked every page in my passport because he was bored.The Asian Financial Crisis was way worse than what we have today in Korea, Indonesia and Thailand.

2008 GFC does not even appear on my list.
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AngMoh
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:37 am

Hornberger wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
* International air travel will not recover meaningfully until there is a vaccine and people can travel without fear of being contaminated by fellow passengers. I suspect that a vaccination certificate will be required by many countries before you're even allowed to board a flight to that country. And a vaccine isn't expected for twelve months - and when it is will not be available for everyone who wants it for a period of time, I'd suggest.

I don't think they will wait for vaccine to re-open to international border.

I have read that the UK are rolling out a mass produced tests can gives a result in 15 minutes. Assuming that they work, the requirement will be that every passenger will be tested at check-in, and then again at inbound immigration at their destination country. This will be in addition to travel bans and/or self-isolation requirements for people travelling from areas with an active outbreak.


The UK test checks if you have had the disease and are now immune to it. It does not check if you are a carrier who can infect others.
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DavidByrne
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:19 am

AngMoh wrote:
The UK test checks if you have had the disease and are now immune to it. It does not check if you are a carrier who can infect others.

Another huge uncertainty on this issue is how long any immunity acquired from having the disease or being vaccinated will last. Catching one coronavirus, the one responsible for the common cold, gives immunity for three months only. Catching some other coronaviruses is known to give around nine months' immunity. It's anyone's guess whether catching or being vaccinated for CoVid-19 will give you long-lasting immunity or only short term. If it's only short term, then we could have a situation where people are reinfected multiple times. Not a pleasant prospect; let's hope that this is not the case. If such reinfections can occur, then we can look forward to this disease being present in the human population for a long while. And that will be a serious dampener on air traffic in the longer term.
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VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:30 am

Like other coronavirus, this covid-19 strain will become of those ones. Most probably it will come back every now and then.

Now, concerning Project Sunrise, if I read all your messages it seems there is a kind of consensus that there could potentially a delay to the introduction of the Project.

If you think so, what is your best guess on the extent of the possible delay?

Obviously some people will say that it depends on how things evolve and there is a lot of uncertainty and it is too early to say.
Okay, it is obviously a legitimate argument, but what is your best guess?
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:43 am

VV wrote:
Like other coronavirus, this covid-19 strain will become of those ones. Most probably it will come back every now and then.

Now, concerning Project Sunrise, if I read all your messages it seems there is a kind of consensus that there could potentially a delay to the introduction of the Project.

If you think so, what is your best guess on the extent of the possible delay?

Obviously some people will say that it depends on how things evolve and there is a lot of uncertainty and it is too early to say.
Okay, it is obviously a legitimate argument, but what is your best guess?

I think it depends on how things evolve. Right now there is a lot of uncertainty, and it is too early to say.

Legitimate argument made, my best guess would be a delay of about 5 years, so EIS in the late 2020s. One question would then be whether this puts it into the timeframe of a next generation engine, unless that is also pushed to the right significantly.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:56 am

VV wrote:
Now, concerning Project Sunrise, if I read all your messages it seems there is a kind of consensus that there could potentially a delay to the introduction of the Project.


No, I think the way to characterise it is that it is just unknown. Businesses like this hate uncertainty and so the decision has been kicked to a time when mare certainty will be available not to when they think they’ll say yes.

Anyone who says they think they’ll know when this is over and how it will be is either deluded or lying.

Fred


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astuteman
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:15 am

DavidByrne wrote:
AngMoh wrote:
The UK test checks if you have had the disease and are now immune to it. It does not check if you are a carrier who can infect others.

Another huge uncertainty on this issue is how long any immunity acquired from having the disease or being vaccinated will last. Catching one coronavirus, the one responsible for the common cold, gives immunity for three months only. Catching some other coronaviruses is known to give around nine months' immunity. It's anyone's guess whether catching or being vaccinated for CoVid-19 will give you long-lasting immunity or only short term. If it's only short term, then we could have a situation where people are reinfected multiple times. Not a pleasant prospect; let's hope that this is not the case. If such reinfections can occur, then we can look forward to this disease being present in the human population for a long while. And that will be a serious dampener on air traffic in the longer term.


I don't think it will - not in the long term.
Eventually, COVID19 and its derivatives will become just another version of the common cold that the vast majority of the human population have an in-built resistance (not immunity) to - just like the common cold.
I say eventually - getting to that point isn't going to be pretty.

Rgds
 
Scotron12
Topic Author
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:22 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
VV wrote:
Like other coronavirus, this covid-19 strain will become of those ones. Most probably it will come back every now and then.

Now, concerning Project Sunrise, if I read all your messages it seems there is a kind of consensus that there could potentially a delay to the introduction of the Project.

If you think so, what is your best guess on the extent of the possible delay?

Obviously some people will say that it depends on how things evolve and there is a lot of uncertainty and it is too early to say.
Okay, it is obviously a legitimate argument, but what is your best guess?

I think it depends on how things evolve. Right now there is a lot of uncertainty, and it is too early to say.

Legitimate argument made, my best guess would be a delay of about 5 years, so EIS in the late 2020s. One question would then be whether this puts it into the timeframe of a next generation engine, unless that is also pushed to the right significantly.

V/F


Totally agree that right now it is far to early to make any guess or prediction on PS.

Right now QF has requested an extention from Airbus of 6-9 months on ordering the A350s. Nothing more, nothing less. If the timeline for starting PS slips, no big deal.

According to reports, there are some signs that travel in China is slowly coming back. Airbus production there have resumed. If the trend continues for the rest of Asia, all well and good.

So after 6-9 months will give a clearer picture on what the future will be. But right now PS is still on track for 2023. Unless QF say otherwise.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:45 am

What does air travel in Asia help if it still servery limited in America or Europe?
 
Scotron12
Topic Author
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:01 pm

seahawk wrote:
What does air travel in Asia help if it still servery limited in America or Europe?


Should give an indication timewise on traffic getting back to normal or near to it. Not saying it will, but in 6-9 months should be a bit clearer. So we wait.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:06 pm

zeke wrote:
As a group they would probably have 20+ different pilot contracts, from network, easterns, jetstar, jetconnect, express freight, domestic, international, management putting one group up against the other.


But the Qantas management loves this. There's nothing that they like more than pitting one labour group against another. I'd be surprised if they weren't trying to tank negotiations so that they could get an external labour group to crew Project Sunrise.
First to fly the 787-9
 
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qf789
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:07 am

Qantas says 85% of pilots have voted in favour of EBA for Project Sunrise meaning that once all this stuff with Coronavirus settles down an order for the A350-1000's can be placed

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ng-flights
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VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:51 pm

qf789 wrote:
Qantas says 85% of pilots have voted in favour of EBA for Project Sunrise meaning that once all this stuff with Coronavirus settles down an order for the A350-1000's can be placed

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ng-flights


Why wait until this covid-19 stuff ends? Are they expecting the health crisis to continue until 2023?
 
Williamsb747
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:01 pm

VV wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas says 85% of pilots have voted in favour of EBA for Project Sunrise meaning that once all this stuff with Coronavirus settles down an order for the A350-1000's can be placed

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ng-flights


Why wait until this covid-19 stuff ends? Are they expecting the health crisis to continue until 2023?

My guess Money. Don’t think Qantas wants to tie themselves down with massive amounts of either loans or cash that could be put to better use now. Especially when the future, due to the corona, is unpredictable right now.
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VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:21 pm

Williamsb747 wrote:
VV wrote:

Why wait until this covid-19 stuff ends? Are they expecting the health crisis to continue until 2023?

My guess Money. Don’t think Qantas wants to tie themselves down with massive amounts of either loans or cash that could be put to better use now. Especially when the future, due to the corona, is unpredictable right now.


They do not need to pay at the time they order, do they?
Don't they have some pre delivery payment left over from the cancelled 8 A380?
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:32 pm

VV wrote:
Williamsb747 wrote:
VV wrote:

Why wait until this covid-19 stuff ends? Are they expecting the health crisis to continue until 2023?

My guess Money. Don’t think Qantas wants to tie themselves down with massive amounts of either loans or cash that could be put to better use now. Especially when the future, due to the corona, is unpredictable right now.


They do not need to pay at the time they order, do they?
Don't they have some pre delivery payment left over from the cancelled 8 A380?

Because the market is not stable, businesses do not want to make large investment decisions without the clarity on future trading conditions. Imagine if they chose to commit 3bn in future capital and then the market didn’t materialise.

I’m sure this has been explained to you several times already in this thread on this exact subject, this isn’t your blog here, you can’t just delete comments that don’t agree with you and keep the same tropes going.

Trolling, troping or ignorance I can’t tell.

Fred


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VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:39 am

flipdewaf wrote:
VV wrote:
...
They do not need to pay at the time they order, do they?
Don't they have some pre delivery payment left over from the cancelled 8 A380?

Because the market is not stable, businesses do not want to make large investment decisions without the clarity on future trading conditions. Imagine if they chose to commit 3bn in future capital and then the market didn’t materialise.

I’m sure this has been explained to you several times already in this thread on this exact subject, this isn’t your blog here, you can’t just delete comments that don’t agree with you and keep the same tropes going.

Trolling, troping or ignorance I can’t tell.


The market may be unstable, but they can still "firm" the order today.

After all they can cancel it later on just like they did with the 8 A380 if the market does not improve in 2021.

Cancellation happens and Qantas already have the experience of cancelling an order (8 A380) when the business plan does not work out.

I am pretty sure everyone knows it.
 
VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:41 am

Or maybe Qantas think the plan is not viable for 2023 and wants to push it back to 2024 or even later to allow the right aircraft to be developed with the additional tank.

Or perhaps they want to abandon it altogether?
 
Scotron12
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:55 am

VV wrote:
Or maybe Qantas think the plan is not viable for 2023 and wants to push it back to 2024 or even later to allow the right aircraft to be developed with the additional tank.

Or perhaps they want to abandon it altogether?


I have seen nothing to indicate that QF want to wait or abandon PS. If all were normal the A350 order would be firmed already.

At this stage, QF have all their ducks lined up to start PS in 2023. As to the cancelled 8 A380s, didn't QF swap them for 100 A321neos??
 
VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:05 am

Scotron12 wrote:
VV wrote:
Or maybe Qantas think the plan is not viable for 2023 and wants to push it back to 2024 or even later to allow the right aircraft to be developed with the additional tank.

Or perhaps they want to abandon it altogether?


I have seen nothing to indicate that QF want to wait or abandon PS. If all were normal the A350 order would be firmed already.

At this stage, QF have all their ducks lined up to start PS in 2023. As to the cancelled 8 A380s, didn't QF swap them for 100 A321neos??


Did they swap it to A321neo?
If so, they can perhaps order the A350-1000 NOW and then maybe they can swap it to something else if they suddenly they realize they do not want to start the ultra-long-haul flights in 2023.

There is absolutely nothing that prevent them to firm the A350-1000 orders NOW. Cancellations and deferrals happen. Or as you said, swapping an aircraft order to another aircraft type could happen too.

So, what prevents them for ordering it now?
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:12 am

Scotron12 wrote:
VV wrote:
Or maybe Qantas think the plan is not viable for 2023 and wants to push it back to 2024 or even later to allow the right aircraft to be developed with the additional tank.

Or perhaps they want to abandon it altogether?


I have seen nothing to indicate that QF want to wait or abandon PS. If all were normal the A350 order would be firmed already.


I think the question that QF want answered, along with every other carrier, is how the market will begin to recover once the global COVID19 situation stabilises and begins to rescind. And secondly, I would surmise they want their business to be cash flow positive before committing an expensive order.
Cheers,
C1973
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:15 am

VV wrote:
So, what prevents them for ordering it now?

If you’re still asking that question you must have your head in the sand. Read today’s announcement by NZ and then think about what QF’s equivalent statement will look like.
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VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:18 am

DavidByrne wrote:
VV wrote:
So, what prevents them for ordering it now?

If you’re still asking that question you must have your head in the sand. Read today’s announcement by NZ and then think about what QF’s equivalent statement will look like.


Do you expect the situation to remain the same in 2023?

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