but even if we accept that people will get over the pandemic quickly enough...
2) We are witnessing the largest global recession since the Great Depression. On a global basis we will probably smash every "target" for being the worst global depression ever.
In short, don't expect to fly LHR-SYD nonstop this side of 2030.
I am not one of those people with this excessive pessimism (in French "sinistrose").
The world has now better control of the economy compared to the great depressions times.
The economy will slow down during the next twelve months, but it will grow again quickly.
People acquire the taste of travel. People study far away from home and family. They also move around to work where the job is.
I have absolutely no doubt things will get better very fast, especially in Asia and in Europe for very different reasons.
In Asia because people accept a certain level of fatality. It is God's will and they will accept whatever it is.
In Europe the economy will return fast thanks to the way governments support their citizens. The incentive to rebuild the economy is both injected to the people (as universal healthcare and unemployment benefits) and to corporation (soft loans etc.).
In the US the situation will be quite different because the bail out money to rebuild the economy is given to corporations.
The time it takes for the wealth to trickle down will be quite long. The most vulnerable people will be in such a deep trouble that they would not find job easily.
So the economic growth will start with Asia, followed by Europe and then the US will drag behind by about six months.
Everything will be about normal in late 2021 when the post-pandemic phase will be declared.
Just to add something, Christmas 2020 will see a huge jump in consumers' buying spree.
It will be a record breaking Christmas sales.