Scotron12
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:25 am

lightsaber wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Reuters reports that Qantas has asked Airbus for an extension to the deadline to place an order.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20W33T

I think all Aircraft orders just stopped, Airbus either extends or a hungry Boeing counters. Farnborough will be sad.

Lightsaber


Makes sense.

But, nothing to do with PS, makes you wonder why NH decided to order 15-20 787s at a time when Japan has one of the largest virus infections which is even threatening the Olympics. :duck:
 
oschkosch
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:34 am

lightsaber wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Reuters reports that Qantas has asked Airbus for an extension to the deadline to place an order.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20W33T

I think all Aircraft orders just stopped, Airbus either extends or a hungry Boeing counters. Farnborough will be sad.

Lightsaber



Actually Farnborough 2020 might not even happen! Look how many events have been cancelled already.
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
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scbriml
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:42 am

Scotron12 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Reuters reports that Qantas has asked Airbus for an extension to the deadline to place an order.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20W33T

I think all Aircraft orders just stopped, Airbus either extends or a hungry Boeing counters. Farnborough will be sad.

Lightsaber


Makes sense.

But, nothing to do with PS, makes you wonder why NH decided to order 15-20 787s at a time when Japan has one of the largest virus infections which is even threatening the Olympics. :duck:


By the time those planes are anywhere near ready for delivery Corona will be history. Or we'll all be dead.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:11 pm

The slots they asked for will probably still be available in 6 months time, but if not QF will need to wait 6 months to start PS.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:44 pm

scbriml wrote:

By the time those planes are anywhere near ready for delivery Corona will be history. Or we'll all be dead.


Loving your positivity :lol:

Cheers,
C1973
Cheers,
C1973
 
Ruscoe
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:46 am

According to todays Australian newspaper Alan Joyce has asked Airbus for more time to make a decision, but only giving the pilots till March 30 to agree to the new deal. Airbus confirmed they were in discussions. If the pilots don’t agree then the A350 will be removed from the package and given to a “separate group”. This was revealed on Tuesday.
The pilots will be under a lot of pressure to conform with the wishes of Qantas given the current state of the airline industry.
Ruscoe
 
JohanTally
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:06 pm

Ruscoe wrote:
According to todays Australian newspaper Alan Joyce has asked Airbus for more time to make a decision, but only giving the pilots till March 30 to agree to the new deal. Airbus confirmed they were in discussions. If the pilots don’t agree then the A350 will be removed from the package and given to a “separate group”. This was revealed on Tuesday.
The pilots will be under a lot of pressure to conform with the wishes of Qantas given the current state of the airline industry.
Ruscoe


Alan Joyce gave the pilots an ultimatum more than 3 weeks ago. Both parties are under pressure don't forget that Pilots Union's can also leverage their position.
 
Kikko19
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:23 pm

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

By the time those planes are anywhere near ready for delivery Corona will be history. Or we'll all be dead.


Loving your positivity :lol:

Cheers,
C1973


but it's true, even if all the world population will be infected it will be over in less than six months from now :D
 
Scotron12
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:05 pm

Kikko19 wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

By the time those planes are anywhere near ready for delivery Corona will be history. Or we'll all be dead.


Loving your positivity :lol:

Cheers,
C1973


but it's true, even if all the world population will be infected it will be over in less than six months from now :D


Maybe so, but it will take a long time to recover. Definitely will not happen overnight!
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:04 pm

JohanTally wrote:
Ruscoe wrote:
According to todays Australian newspaper Alan Joyce has asked Airbus for more time to make a decision, but only giving the pilots till March 30 to agree to the new deal. Airbus confirmed they were in discussions. If the pilots don’t agree then the A350 will be removed from the package and given to a “separate group”. This was revealed on Tuesday.
The pilots will be under a lot of pressure to conform with the wishes of Qantas given the current state of the airline industry.
Ruscoe


Alan Joyce gave the pilots an ultimatum more than 3 weeks ago. Both parties are under pressure don't forget that Pilots Union's can also leverage their position.


What possible leverage do AIPA have left at this stage? Qantas cut them out of the negotiations and then, humiliatingly, AIPA recommended their membership vote yes on the offer. They have managed to make themselves totally irrelevant. It's an embarrassment.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
Whatsaptudo
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:39 pm

With respect Ryan, that’s not what has happened. AIPA have got the offer to where it is under unbelievably trying circumstances. The President and Vice President have personally recommended a Yes vote. Not the organisation. It’s actually a very good deal, unless you’re an A380 Pilot. The way the company went about it (basically putting a gun to our heads) is nothing short of disgusting, and the ramifications of that will likely remain long after AJ an TLs are gone, but that is something they will have to deal with moving forward.
I believe the deal will get up. The biggest issue now is what will happen to QF in the meantime.
 
redroo
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:39 am

Whatsaptudo wrote:
With respect Ryan, that’s not what has happened. AIPA have got the offer to where it is under unbelievably trying circumstances. The President and Vice President have personally recommended a Yes vote. Not the organisation. It’s actually a very good deal, unless you’re an A380 Pilot. The way the company went about it (basically putting a gun to our heads) is nothing short of disgusting, and the ramifications of that will likely remain long after AJ an TLs are gone, but that is something they will have to deal with moving forward.
I believe the deal will get up. The biggest issue now is what will happen to QF in the meantime.


Curious. What was wrong with the way QF approached the negotiations with the pilots?
 
Whatsaptudo
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:49 am

It's hardly good faith barganing when they tell you don't accept this deal, (a non negotiated deal) you will be replaced by someone else. We are not contractors.
 
JohanTally
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:59 am

Whatsaptudo wrote:
It's hardly good faith barganing when they tell you don't accept this deal, (a non negotiated deal) you will be replaced by someone else. We are not contractors.


Exactly. Qantas is one of a few airlines that passengers will pay a premium to fly on. I doubt the same would be true if they started a new subsidiary called "Sunrise Air" operated by scabs.
 
moa999
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:38 am

Whatsaptudo wrote:
It's hardly good faith barganing when they tell you don't accept this deal, (a non negotiated deal) you will be replaced by someone else. We are not contractors.
Not bad faith - it's just a take it or leave it deal, no more room for negotiation.

No different to walking into a shop. You either accept the market price or go elsewhere. Both parties know the outcome - either acceptance, or they don't get the sale, and you go elsewhere.

Bad faith would be negotiating an agreed deal with unions, then presenting a totally different deal.

Or in the current environment withdrawing the current offer and putting up a worse one.
 
Whatsaptudo
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:21 am

People are not the same as a packet of pasta. In Australia it is Law that an employer bargain in good faith. They didn’t, but there is little prospect of a successful outcome in FWA with a liberal party loaded panel of justices. We lose. Doesn’t make it right.
 
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zeke
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:21 am

Whatsaptudo wrote:
People are not the same as a packet of pasta. In Australia it is Law that an employer bargain in good faith. They didn’t, but there is little prospect of a successful outcome in FWA with a liberal party loaded panel of justices. We lose. Doesn’t make it right.


What you haven’t mentioned is that your EBA does not cover the A350 type or Sunrise routes, that is “new flying”. As far as I am aware there is nothing to compel the FWC or the QF group to get the existing pilot pool onboard, I understand your perspective but I am offering mine. There are thousands of pilots who have the right to work in Australia that have considerable A350 and ULH experience, some have made unsolicited offers to QF.

The QF group only has to negotiate within the scope of the current EBA. The QF group is well within their rights to have another EBA covering Sunrise, that could be a new entity, or an existing one. There are many many EBAs for pilots within the QF group, not just the long haul and short haul EBAs.

You even have pilots who do not have the right to work in Australia flying around flying 747s for QF (Atlas). You have Qantas Freight operating 767s and 737s that could have been done within current QF EBAs. This all started long ago when QF bought Impulse, turned it into Jetstar and replaced a lot of the domestic and international flying with cheaper pilots. Even at Jetstar they are saying if you don’t want to agree to the terms, that’s fine we will just sell the 787s and make the Jetstar 787 pilots redundant.

In my view with Coronavirus there is a very real risk that QF will dispose of the A380s and 747s, forcing massive retrenchments. That will just leave the 787s and A330s on the long haul EBA.

I’m in the same boat working for a company that has zero government ownership, it maybe the start of massive layoffs worldwide. When things pickup, it will be on reduced contracts.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
JohanTally
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:08 pm

moa999 wrote:
Whatsaptudo wrote:
It's hardly good faith barganing when they tell you don't accept this deal, (a non negotiated deal) you will be replaced by someone else. We are not contractors.
Not bad faith - it's just a take it or leave it deal, no more room for negotiation.

No different to walking into a shop. You either accept the market price or go elsewhere. Both parties know the outcome - either acceptance, or they don't get the sale, and you go elsewhere.

Bad faith would be negotiating an agreed deal with unions, then presenting a totally different deal.

Or in the current environment withdrawing the current offer and putting up a worse one.


Here in the States we call the negotiated and agreed upon contract a Collective Bargaining Agreement the name indicates that all parties had input in the settlement. I'm not sure if it's the same in Australia but QF executives telling pilots accept our terms or we will find someone else who will is not collectively bargaining.
 
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zeke
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:09 pm

JohanTally wrote:
Here in the States we call the negotiated and agreed upon contract a Collective Bargaining Agreement the name indicates that all parties had input in the settlement. I'm not sure if it's the same in Australia but QF executives telling pilots accept our terms or we will find someone else who will is not collectively bargaining.


The situation is similar to an offer in the US for operations outside of the scope clause. The sunrise flying and A350 are effectively outside of their scope clause.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:22 pm

qf2220 wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:

Those pay rates are terrible.


They are very good pay rates if your cost of living is in Australia. In AUD theyre about A$380k for Captains, A$250k for FO and A$124k for SO... All of those are quite above the cost of living here.


Those rates, in USD, would be about what US pilots earn and at considerably lower tax rates and cost of living. Maybe a bit more at some carriers.

GF
 
JohanTally
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:27 pm

zeke wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
Here in the States we call the negotiated and agreed upon contract a Collective Bargaining Agreement the name indicates that all parties had input in the settlement. I'm not sure if it's the same in Australia but QF executives telling pilots accept our terms or we will find someone else who will is not collectively bargaining.


The situation is similar to an offer in the US for operations outside of the scope clause. The sunrise flying and A350 are effectively outside of their scope clause.


It just baffles me that QF is holding all the cards and the pilots have no ability to negotiate improvements on their side for the productivity gains management is demanding via their ultimatum.
 
Whatsaptudo
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:44 pm

What it comes down to Johan, is that arguably Australia is the greatest country in the world to live in. But we don’t have many jobs for pilots, let alone jobs flying widebodys around the world. QF is the best of those jobs. Many Australian pilots have left Australia and headed overseas so they could do that type of flying as that is initially what everyone aspires to. I would suggest that the shine eventually wears off, as it does everywhere, and in the end you are just flying a pretty jet living somewhere less desirable than Australia. Which bring us to the situation now. QF is being contacted by many of these pilots who didn’t get into QF in the first place, and now see an opportunity. Unfortunately for them, it looks like it won’t work, but management used it to their advantage. The law in Australia doesn’t give employees many rights. And “fair work Australia” is not fair, so we just have to live with it. But, it’s better to fight for better conditions inside the tent, than from the outside.
 
redroo
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:26 am

The pilots were given a similar offer to all the other work groups - 3pc this year, 3pc next year and 3pc the year after. AJ has made it very clear to ALL groups undergoing EBA negotiations that this above inflation raise was all that was on the table.

Whether the whole process is fair or not... that’s another thing. There are very very few employees in the world that are in a strong bargaining position with their employer. I think the pilots were reminded of this as part of their negotiations... take the good offer on the table or we setup “Qantas A350 Pilots Ltd” like the flight attendants have. QF are well within their rights to this. In the same way the pilots are well within their rights to withhold labour from QF.
 
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zeke
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:30 am

JohanTally wrote:
It just baffles me that QF is holding all the cards and the pilots have no ability to negotiate improvements on their side for the productivity gains management is demanding via their ultimatum.


QF is not saying that pilots cannot gain improvements and they are not requiring any productivity improvements if they don’t want to do the sunrise flying, what they are offering is a variation of their contract. That variation is including of the sunrise flying under new terms. They have been given the choice if they want to accept the offer and do the “new flying”, or reject the “new flying”. They cannot negotiate improvements on something that is not in their contracts, it is a new starting point.

The current arrangements on the A380 and 744 are not sustainable. For what it’s worth, the sunrise flying has been on the QF agenda for the best part of twenty years, they first looked at it with the A345 and 77L. It has been short sighted by the pilot union for a long time not have included it in their scope.

Whatsaptudo wrote:
What it comes down to Johan, is that arguably Australia is the greatest country in the world to live in.


Sounds like a very arrogant statement to make, have you actually lived anywhere else ? Why do so many Australians choose to live elsewhere?

Whatsaptudo wrote:
QF is being contacted by many of these pilots who didn’t get into QF in the first place, and now see an opportunity.


Again sounds like a very arrogant and elitist comment to make. We have had numerous pilots who resigned from QF to work for us, and their comments like having to address a colleague as “captain” even in social settings away from work is just baffling. QF has historically been full of nepotism and an awful cockpit environment, sons of current pilots (not females), and defence force friends were historically given the inside run. It’s only been the last 10-15 years where you have seen QF actually become gender balanced and accept people from other walks of life. I think we have had over 100 pilots go to QF in the past two years, and I keep hearing of workplace bullying by QF pilots towards them because they actually have other experience.

Until you have worked for another airline, and lived in another country, please refrain from telling us how the world works. Many QF pilots have never worked in industry, either joined directly as cadets or straight from defence.

I know some of the pilots who have contacted QF run large companies that have pilots placed in 30 plus airlines, they have a far better understanding of normal competitive employment terms, the average QF pilot would not have applied for a job elsewhere in the past 10 years and would be clueless on normal conditions. Those who took leave without pay to work overseas would have a better outlook on what the industry is like outside of QF. Some of them would have been flying ULH with Middle East carries and would be confused over what all the fuss is about.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
Whatsaptudo
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:10 am

Zeke. Yes I have lived elsewhere. Dubai/Canada/and a short time in Mexico. I’m quite aware of the conditions at other airlines. But I would add, that I’ve never stated the conditions are bad, in fact I’ve stated the sunrise conditions are very good, so I’m not sure why you are having a go at me.
In QF, no one calls anyone captain in a social setting, it hardly happens when we are at work. Most of what you have written is rubbish. Total Rubbish. I fly with heaps and heaps of Cathay blokes. Not one of them misses it.

With regards to our conditions and pay. The company offer is what it is. It was not negotiated and you can see the numbers, that is what they offered. If that’s too much, you better tell your mates as it looks like it’s about to be real.
 
moa999
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:09 am

Within the space of a week there won't be much QFi longhaul fullstop.

AA is cutting back to 2.5 long haul flights a day. 135 widebodies grounded.

Think any vote is now going to be put on hold.
 
VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:11 am

Are they maintaining the debut of Project Sunrise for 2023?
 
Sparker
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:27 am

VV wrote:
Are they maintaining the debut of Project Sunrise for 2023?


Too early to say, I would think. They've pushed the aircraft purchase decision back to the end of the year, by which time we might all have a clearer picture of the state of the airline industry and the market.
 
VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:49 am

Sparker wrote:
VV wrote:
Are they maintaining the debut of Project Sunrise for 2023?


Too early to say, I would think. They've pushed the aircraft purchase decision back to the end of the year, by which time we might all have a clearer picture of the state of the airline industry and the market.


The decision to purchase the aircraft is delayed, yes we understand it.
But the question is more about the start of Project Sunrise flights.

Your answer sounds like the Project Sunrise could be reconsidered, which is not the case so far.

They already decided to go ahead with the Project Sunrise, with or without pilot agreement and they already selected the A350-1000. The only remaining uncertainty is about the expected timing of the first flight for Project Sunrise.

So far Qantas has not made any comment on the Project Sunrise debut. They only said the purchase order is delayed.
Does the delay on the aircraft purchase pushes the entry into service date?
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:24 am

VV wrote:
Sparker wrote:
VV wrote:
Are they maintaining the debut of Project Sunrise for 2023?


Too early to say, I would think. They've pushed the aircraft purchase decision back to the end of the year, by which time we might all have a clearer picture of the state of the airline industry and the market.


The decision to purchase the aircraft is delayed, yes we understand it.
But the question is more about the start of Project Sunrise flights.

Your answer sounds like the Project Sunrise could be reconsidered, which is not the case so far.

They already decided to go ahead with the Project Sunrise, with or without pilot agreement and they already selected the A350-1000. The only remaining uncertainty is about the expected timing of the first flight for Project Sunrise.

So far Qantas has not made any comment on the Project Sunrise debut. They only said the purchase order is delayed.
Does the delay on the aircraft purchase pushes the entry into service date?


I guess it depends on what the drivers were for the original timescale?
a.Were they airbus engineering based/technical and under airbus' control and if so at this point how much resource/effort is airbus willing to do 'on faith' prior to getting the PO or the requirements are for more then QF so worth doing anyway.
b.Were they scheduling/production driven and so again it could depend on when/how much airbus is willing to do before the PO and of they are willing and able to enter parts in to the System for QF without having the PO, the risk could be low if those long lead time parts are identical or close enough to standard to swap customer later in the process.
c. Driven from the support side, ground service issues, training syllabus.
d. Time taken by the authorities to prove the duty times for the safety case. May (likely) be dependent on research being carried out that isn't due to have conclusions published till a specific time.
e. Demand driven from the QF side, we likely have no idea which way that will swing in the midst of Covid-19 and how the dust will settle after, we would see a huge decrease in demand in general and so the contract gets reduced or scrapped completely. We could see everything fall back nicely in to place, we could see it surge (non-stops) with people willing to pay premiums to avoid the stops. It's all one big clusterfu*k at the moment.
f. Fuel prices may hit the floor...and in that scenario for ULR - ALL bets are ON!
g. Crew availability and training. I think this may have been an issue but I cant really see it holding up the process there will be an availability of pilots and crew from the fallout of the current issues.

At some point the Covid-19 issue could(it might have already) hit the critical path (the critical path will also be flexing and making) and then the delivery timescale will change.

I see no evidence however that the certification of a higher MTOW and additional tanks(be they centre or integrated or whatever) will be part of the critical path!

Fred
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seahawk
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:00 am

VV wrote:
Sparker wrote:
VV wrote:
Are they maintaining the debut of Project Sunrise for 2023?


Too early to say, I would think. They've pushed the aircraft purchase decision back to the end of the year, by which time we might all have a clearer picture of the state of the airline industry and the market.


The decision to purchase the aircraft is delayed, yes we understand it.
But the question is more about the start of Project Sunrise flights.

Your answer sounds like the Project Sunrise could be reconsidered, which is not the case so far.

They already decided to go ahead with the Project Sunrise, with or without pilot agreement and they already selected the A350-1000. The only remaining uncertainty is about the expected timing of the first flight for Project Sunrise.

So far Qantas has not made any comment on the Project Sunrise debut. They only said the purchase order is delayed.
Does the delay on the aircraft purchase pushes the entry into service date?


All decisions made pre-Corona have no value today.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:12 am

VV wrote:
They already decided to go ahead with the Project Sunrise, with or without pilot agreement and they already selected the A350-1000. The only remaining uncertainty is about the expected timing of the first flight for Project Sunrise.

I think we're deluding ourselves if we think that the whole airline ecosystem hasn't completely changed in the last few weeks. All bets are off for everything IMO. The only thing that's certain is that it will take a loooong time for the industry to recover to anything approaching the industry of early 2020. In that context my prediction is that Sunrise is now Sunset.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
moa999
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:29 am

Challenge will obviously be capex $s but I think the risk of future outbreaks will increase the premium people are willing to pay for a direct flight avoiding transit airports.

The future of the A380 is probably more in doubt as I suspect travel numbers will be depressed for a while

Plus obviously the smaller pax load of the proposed Sunrise aircraft is easier to fill
Last edited by moa999 on Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Aither
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:31 am

DavidByrne wrote:
I think we're deluding ourselves if we think that the whole airline ecosystem hasn't completely changed in the last few weeks. All bets are off for everything IMO. The only thing that's certain is that it will take a loooong time for the industry to recover to anything approaching the industry of early 2020.


Only the ones who believe this will take a loooong time to recover.
Never trust the obvious
 
VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:33 am

seahawk wrote:
VV wrote:
...
The decision to purchase the aircraft is delayed, yes we understand it.
But the question is more about the start of Project Sunrise flights.

Your answer sounds like the Project Sunrise could be reconsidered, which is not the case so far.

They already decided to go ahead with the Project Sunrise, with or without pilot agreement and they already selected the A350-1000. The only remaining uncertainty is about the expected timing of the first flight for Project Sunrise.

So far Qantas has not made any comment on the Project Sunrise debut. They only said the purchase order is delayed.
Does the delay on the aircraft purchase pushes the entry into service date?


All decisions made pre-Corona have no value today.


That's a very bold statement.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:16 am

VV wrote:
seahawk wrote:
VV wrote:
...
The decision to purchase the aircraft is delayed, yes we understand it.
But the question is more about the start of Project Sunrise flights.

Your answer sounds like the Project Sunrise could be reconsidered, which is not the case so far.

They already decided to go ahead with the Project Sunrise, with or without pilot agreement and they already selected the A350-1000. The only remaining uncertainty is about the expected timing of the first flight for Project Sunrise.

So far Qantas has not made any comment on the Project Sunrise debut. They only said the purchase order is delayed.
Does the delay on the aircraft purchase pushes the entry into service date?


All decisions made pre-Corona have no value today.


That's a very bold statement.


Not for the airline industry.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:05 am

seahawk wrote:
VV wrote:
seahawk wrote:

All decisions made pre-Corona have no value today.


That's a very bold statement.


Not for the airline industry.

Agree 100%. The A-net bubble should follow the international media more to hear commentators talking about the forever-changed future of the global industry. In any case, it's almost self-evident that the servicing the gazillions of dollars of debt now being borrowed by governments to inject into global economies will be a heavy load on the economy for years and years. Not great conditions for a rapid revival of the industry.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
cpd
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:06 am

seahawk wrote:
VV wrote:
seahawk wrote:

All decisions made pre-Corona have no value today.


That's a very bold statement.


Not for the airline industry.


I would agree, the sun is likely going to set on this Sunrise project. I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen at all.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:16 am

cpd wrote:
seahawk wrote:
VV wrote:

That's a very bold statement.


Not for the airline industry.


I would agree, the sun is likely going to set on this Sunrise project. I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen at all.

I disagree. Delayed certainly, but it is too important for QF survival for it to be dropped.

Gemuser
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:24 am

If a country goes into isolation / lock down where half its economy stops for 2 months, that is at least a 10% cut in GDP. Airlines operate on 5 to 10% margins in OK times, they are facing rivers of blood in their balance sheets right now. Delta probably vaporized all profits made over the last year in the Covid bonfire, what airline will have both profits to invest in new planes and lenders that would finance the same.

Passengers incomes will have tanked, coupled with the scare of this whole event has probably killed the cruise industry, getaway resorts, exotic travel, and a whole lot of business traffic. There may be growth quickly back to 50% of capacity, but it will be slow going from there, years and years before the aviation market looks like 2018 again.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:31 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
If a country goes into isolation / lock down where half its economy stops for 2 months, that is at least a 10% cut in GDP. Airlines operate on 5 to 10% margins in OK times, they are facing rivers of blood in their balance sheets right now. Delta probably vaporized all profits made over the last year in the Covid bonfire, what airline will have both profits to invest in new planes and lenders that would finance the same.

Passengers incomes will have tanked, coupled with the scare of this whole event has probably killed the cruise industry, getaway resorts, exotic travel, and a whole lot of business traffic. There may be growth quickly back to 50% of capacity, but it will be slow going from there, years and years before the aviation market looks like 2018 again.


Add more government influence. The ME3 (or maybe ME2 in the future) will flood the market with cheap capacity, same will happen in China. And most importantly we do not even know how long the crisis will last and how bad it will become. We are still at the beginning.
 
jsfr
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:09 pm

Agree that nobody knows what the world looks like in two weeks let alone three years.... but....

I was in Oz when this was an Asian only crisis and had quite some angst from Mrs Fr about transiting in Hong Kong to get back to Europe. I do believe that post Covid it will become a thing for the general public to have P2P and the benefits of avoiding the “risks” of being stuck in or transiting through a “foreign” country/continent will become more desirable....

A positive for sunrise.
 
VV
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:41 pm

Gemuser wrote:
cpd wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Not for the airline industry.

I would agree, the sun is likely going to set on this Sunrise project. I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen at all.

I disagree. Delayed certainly, but it is too important for QF survival for it to be dropped.


The initial plan for the first Project Sunrise flight is in the first half 2023. It is not tomorrow. It is in three years.

The decision has been made to go ahead with the project regardless pilots' position and the aircraft is already selected.

The only thing that has been delayed is the formal purchase agreement.

My question was if Qantas has changed anything concerning their decision to start the Project Sunrise flights in the first half 2023.

Is there any reason to believe they would delay the entry into service?
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:49 pm

VV wrote:
My question was if Qantas has changed anything concerning their decision to start the Project Sunrise flights in the first half 2023.

Is there any reason to believe they would delay the entry into service?

The world is going through the most significant economic and social disruption in at least 80 years, if not more. Perhaps things will have improved by the end of the year. Perhaps they won’t. But it is a particular sort of madness to assume things will continue unchanged. We’re just going to need to wait and see what Qantas does, once it is out of survival mode.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
Aither
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Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:15 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
But it is a particular sort of madness to assume things will continue unchanged. We’re just going to need to wait and see what Qantas does, once it is out of survival mode.
V/F


By the end of the year the same politicians will be there. The same institutions will be there. The same economists will be there. The same CEOs will be there. And probably the same banks will be there.
People who think the virus will dramatically change the world will be disappointed. It's wishful thinking in my opinion.
Never trust the obvious
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3402
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:19 pm

VV wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
cpd wrote:
I would agree, the sun is likely going to set on this Sunrise project. I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen at all.

I disagree. Delayed certainly, but it is too important for QF survival for it to be dropped.


The initial plan for the first Project Sunrise flight is in the first half 2023. It is not tomorrow. It is in three years.

The decision has been made to go ahead with the project regardless pilots' position and the aircraft is already selected.

The only thing that has been delayed is the formal purchase agreement.

My question was if Qantas has changed anything concerning their decision to start the Project Sunrise flights in the first half 2023.

Is there any reason to believe they would delay the entry into service?


This is probably the biggest upset to the global aviation industry since the Second World War and you think that because only a ‘formal purchase agreement’ is outstanding that it will still go ahead? There are many many things with such agreements in place that still won’t be happening. We are in unchartered waters. I have a project with my finger on the go button sorting minor contract details. It is no longer a thing for the foreseeable as businesses large and small batten down the hatches and only delivering essential services. Airlines are likely thinking about:
Whether they are going to be able to operate flights. Are they going to have staff available. Can they pay staff. Are they going to be able to pay their debts. Is travel demand ever going to be back how it was. Are the staff safe?

If they said it’s off for the foreseeable I doubt anyone would be surprised.

Fred


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VirginFlyer
Posts: 5447
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Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:12 pm

Aither wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
But it is a particular sort of madness to assume things will continue unchanged. We’re just going to need to wait and see what Qantas does, once it is out of survival mode.
V/F


By the end of the year the same politicians will be there. The same institutions will be there. The same economists will be there. The same CEOs will be there. And probably the same banks will be there.
People who think the virus will dramatically change the world will be disappointed. It's wishful thinking in my opinion.

And if Project Sunrise was predicated on politicians, institutions, economists, CEOs and banks, that would be great. But what is really at issue is what condition will the market be in, and how long will it take to recover to the point where Project Sunrise is a viable proposition.

People who think the virus and the associated restrictions and lockdowns are not going to have a significant economic impact will be disappointed. It’s wishful thinking in my opinion.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
ILNFlyer
Posts: 453
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:34 pm

Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:39 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
Revelation wrote:
VV wrote:
We are being told direct flight LHR-SYD is very attractive.

Actually we are being told LHR-SYD direct flights are only viable if passengers, airplane manufacturers and airline employees make financial concessions. Whether or not that is accurate is up for debate.

Scotron12 wrote:
Gives a bit more detail on the economics for QF by going ahead.

https://simpleflying.com/qantas-london- ... -approval/

One point of interest:

The UBS analysis and its revenue projections suggest Project Sunrise is viable and isn’t dependent on the outcome of a pay deal.

This suggests QF is using this opportunity to squeeze a concession out of the pilots, namely:

Qantas says that if it cannot reach a deal with AIPA, it will approach pilots directly and offer terms. According to a report published overnight in The Financial Review, Captains would receive an annual base salary of USD$265,400, first officers would receive USD$175,370 and second officers would receive USD$86,680.
...
One of the sticking points is the salary for second officers on Project Sunrise flights. Qantas wants to pay future second officers less than it will pay existing second officers. AIPA isn’t happy with this.

And:

zeke wrote:
They have a history of doing that, either buying smaller airlines and expanding them to remove flying from mainline, Impulse, Network, using contractors like Cobham, Atlas, starting new airlines like Australian, Qantas Freight, Jetconnect

... they have a track record of winning.

I guess the real question is if QF's pilots will decide if they should resort to strikes or not.


Those pay rates are terrible.


Yeah, really rough living on a measly $250K +
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 3402
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:51 pm

VV wrote:
What would the passenger count be between SYD-LHR (say 9,600 nmi) on an A380?
Would have it been possible to carry 300 passengers on that route?


If you look at the ACAPS you can see that its basically nothing on the T900 variant and about 50pax on the GP7200. Assuming that the fuel volume limitation can be easily overcome (there is a lot of space in those there wings) and the ACTs would be relatively easy to integrate then you could expect about 200pax on both variants.

Fred

PS. VV your website/Blog has broken. It doesn't allow comments to be posted.
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CriticalPoint
Posts: 935
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:01 pm

Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:19 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Actually we are being told LHR-SYD direct flights are only viable if passengers, airplane manufacturers and airline employees make financial concessions. Whether or not that is accurate is up for debate.


One point of interest:


This suggests QF is using this opportunity to squeeze a concession out of the pilots, namely:


And:


... they have a track record of winning.

I guess the real question is if QF's pilots will decide if they should resort to strikes or not.


Those pay rates are terrible.


Yeah, really rough living on a measly $250K +


Do you compare your pay to what others in your field are making? If you are not then you are doing yourself a disservice.

You may think it’s to much money but other pilots doing the exact same job are getting paid a lot more. That’s why those pay rates suck.

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