RJMAZ wrote:MrHMSH wrote:Relying entirely on the price of oil being low is very risky, anything could happen between now and a time when PS because viable again. The A35K is a far safer bet, would be far more fuel efficient going to JFK, LHR and any Asian destinations they have, even with fuel prices being low it's still a huge amount of fuel saved. More future-proof and sets up a possibility of buying regular A35Ks, which could work well for them.
No, relying entirely on the low oil price and buying brand new 777LR aircraft would be risky. At the price Qantas would pay for the Delta 777LR fleet itwould take more than 10 years of record high oil prices until the A350 option became cheaper. There is no risk.
Precovid Jet-A fuel hit $600 per ton. It is now below $200 per ton. The 777LR will burn about 20t more fuel per flight. At the higher price and assuming one flight per day that is only $4.38 million per year in extra fuel. It would take 22 years until the extra fuel saved made the A350-1000ULR a cheaper option..
Are you seriously saying that oil is gong to remain at the current low prices for the next 22 years though? It seems to me that your arguments seem to be focused around this magical 'low oil price' syndrome now seemingly so common by members on this forum. With the production caps now in place, and the world slowly ramping back up, oil price will rise quite substantially in my opinion - not to $60-70 a barrel mind you, but substantially enough that arguments on low oil price/just keep using older aircraft thinking will gp out the window fairly quickly. It certainly won't take very long to consume the oil that is in currently in storage. Then what.....are you expecting it still to be $20-$30 a barrel??? As has been mentioned, your arguments are really all over the place trying to somehow 'prove' that everything you are putting forward it somehow definitive, yet are only speculation/assumption.