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ewt340
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:17 am

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
A prolonged recession could have KLM looking towards smaller narrowbodies again. More flying could shift to Embraer E2s.


I doubt it. They would either postponed the orders and keep the NG flying for more times until the demand pick up again in few years.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:34 am

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
A prolonged recession could have KLM looking towards smaller narrowbodies again. More flying could shift to Embraer E2s.

In my opinion that is very unlikely due to the slot constraints at EHAM, and I don’t think the VNV and VNC would accept the E2 (partially) taking over the 737 flying.
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Jomar777
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:25 am

mig17 wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
Sorry - I do not think fleet diversity is the issue here. Actually, I do not think it is the MAX present demise either.
I feel the issue here is what the A321XLR can do and the fact that Boeing does not have anything like it to offer at the moment.

I know people here hate all those B757s lovers but I have been telling also all along the same as they did: the market needs a Medium Haul-Narrow Body aircraft. For those that continue saying that Boeing did not invest on a B757 upgrade (or a B797 Narrow Body back then) for lack of market here is the proof - A321XLR selling really well.

Boeing´s response for this would be to review the B797´s proposal (it is already doing this...) but it might be too late.

A321xlr is a relativ succes. Yes there is a market for planes with 757 capability, but maybe not enough to justify a entire type. That was the problem Boeing encountered with 797.
A321xlr is an A321 neo. It doesn't cost the same as a brand new cleensheet to developpe and shares comonality.
A mixfleet of A321n and E2 seem to be the right deal to replace 737 at KLM and then, if the opportunity comes some xlr can be added later.


Actually, the clear volume of orders the A321XLR is receiving contradicts your point - there is scope for an aircraft of these characteristics. Remember also that the B797, as proposed by Boeing recently (before being stopped pending a review) was for a WB aircraft (something like a B787-7 in size...) - not a Narrow body Aircraft.
The point being made by me is that Boeing should have never cancelled the B757 but actually upgraded it as it did with the B737 and, to some extent, the B767. When replacing the B767 and B772s by the B787, it should also have done so in regards to the B757 (or maybe moved towards a MAX version of some sorts).

Airbus did not have an answer then but it has now so Boeing clearly missed this one. Not only KLM might consider the A321XLR but also United has already ordered them. Others will follow.

The A321XLR is not only another A321 - it is actually a Long Range one and this key benefit is the one that Airlines are looking into it at present.
 
mig17
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:56 am

Jomar777 wrote:
mig17 wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
Sorry - I do not think fleet diversity is the issue here. Actually, I do not think it is the MAX present demise either.
I feel the issue here is what the A321XLR can do and the fact that Boeing does not have anything like it to offer at the moment.

I know people here hate all those B757s lovers but I have been telling also all along the same as they did: the market needs a Medium Haul-Narrow Body aircraft. For those that continue saying that Boeing did not invest on a B757 upgrade (or a B797 Narrow Body back then) for lack of market here is the proof - A321XLR selling really well.

Boeing´s response for this would be to review the B797´s proposal (it is already doing this...) but it might be too late.

A321xlr is a relativ succes. Yes there is a market for planes with 757 capability, but maybe not enough to justify a entire type. That was the problem Boeing encountered with 797.
A321xlr is an A321 neo. It doesn't cost the same as a brand new cleensheet to developpe and shares comonality.
A mixfleet of A321n and E2 seem to be the right deal to replace 737 at KLM and then, if the opportunity comes some xlr can be added later.


Actually, the clear volume of orders the A321XLR is receiving contradicts your point - there is scope for an aircraft of these characteristics. Remember also that the B797, as proposed by Boeing recently (before being stopped pending a review) was for a WB aircraft (something like a B787-7 in size...) - not a Narrow body Aircraft.
The point being made by me is that Boeing should have never cancelled the B757 but actually upgraded it as it did with the B737 and, to some extent, the B767. When replacing the B767 and B772s by the B787, it should also have done so in regards to the B757 (or maybe moved towards a MAX version of some sorts).

Airbus did not have an answer then but it has now so Boeing clearly missed this one. Not only KLM might consider the A321XLR but also United has already ordered them. Others will follow.

The A321XLR is not only another A321 - it is actually a Long Range one and this key benefit is the one that Airlines are looking into it at present.

Airbus itself think it will sell around 1000 xlr in the next 10 years : https://simpleflying.com/airbus-1000-a321xlr-orders/
That is still relative compared to the more than 10000 narrowbody orderbook of Airbus and Boeing combined. Does developping or even improving a dedicated plane for 1000 frames over a decade is worth it? Now for Airbus it is the opportunity to enlarge the potential market of their A320 platform. Maybe Boeing all new narrowbody will also be developped to be able to be as or more versatile than the A320, but does a 757 replacement make sens?
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Dutchy
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:21 am

mig17 wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
mig17 wrote:
A321xlr is a relativ succes. Yes there is a market for planes with 757 capability, but maybe not enough to justify a entire type. That was the problem Boeing encountered with 797.
A321xlr is an A321 neo. It doesn't cost the same as a brand new cleensheet to developpe and shares comonality.
A mixfleet of A321n and E2 seem to be the right deal to replace 737 at KLM and then, if the opportunity comes some xlr can be added later.


Actually, the clear volume of orders the A321XLR is receiving contradicts your point - there is scope for an aircraft of these characteristics. Remember also that the B797, as proposed by Boeing recently (before being stopped pending a review) was for a WB aircraft (something like a B787-7 in size...) - not a Narrow body Aircraft.
The point being made by me is that Boeing should have never cancelled the B757 but actually upgraded it as it did with the B737 and, to some extent, the B767. When replacing the B767 and B772s by the B787, it should also have done so in regards to the B757 (or maybe moved towards a MAX version of some sorts).

Airbus did not have an answer then but it has now so Boeing clearly missed this one. Not only KLM might consider the A321XLR but also United has already ordered them. Others will follow.

The A321XLR is not only another A321 - it is actually a Long Range one and this key benefit is the one that Airlines are looking into it at present.

Airbus itself think it will sell around 1000 xlr in the next 10 years : https://simpleflying.com/airbus-1000-a321xlr-orders/
That is still relative compared to the more than 10000 narrowbody orderbook of Airbus and Boeing combined. Does developping or even improving a dedicated plane for 1000 frames over a decade is worth it? Now for Airbus it is the opportunity to enlarge the potential market of their A320 platform. Maybe Boeing all new narrowbody will also be developped to be able to be as or more versatile than the A320, but does a 757 replacement make sens?


The XLR i s a dirt-cheap variant of the A321. So I think it was worth it for 50 planes.
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keesje
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:48 am

Dutchy wrote:
mig17 wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:

Actually, the clear volume of orders the A321XLR is receiving contradicts your point - there is scope for an aircraft of these characteristics. Remember also that the B797, as proposed by Boeing recently (before being stopped pending a review) was for a WB aircraft (something like a B787-7 in size...) - not a Narrow body Aircraft.
The point being made by me is that Boeing should have never cancelled the B757 but actually upgraded it as it did with the B737 and, to some extent, the B767. When replacing the B767 and B772s by the B787, it should also have done so in regards to the B757 (or maybe moved towards a MAX version of some sorts).

Airbus did not have an answer then but it has now so Boeing clearly missed this one. Not only KLM might consider the A321XLR but also United has already ordered them. Others will follow.

The A321XLR is not only another A321 - it is actually a Long Range one and this key benefit is the one that Airlines are looking into it at present.

Airbus itself think it will sell around 1000 xlr in the next 10 years : https://simpleflying.com/airbus-1000-a321xlr-orders/
That is still relative compared to the more than 10000 narrowbody orderbook of Airbus and Boeing combined. Does developping or even improving a dedicated plane for 1000 frames over a decade is worth it? Now for Airbus it is the opportunity to enlarge the potential market of their A320 platform. Maybe Boeing all new narrowbody will also be developped to be able to be as or more versatile than the A320, but does a 757 replacement make sens?


The XLR i s a dirt-cheap variant of the A321. So I think it was worth it for 50 planes.


I think the A321LR is a "dirt cheap" variant of the A321NEO. The XLR is a more significant modification to the wings, fuel systems and landing gear.

For KLM it might make sense to buy XLR because of their long haul network focus. The 737NG replacement is another question. Much depends on credible Boeing options.

Today, the XLR would be extremely valuable to keep WB routes open at lower costs, or even step into destinations abandonned by competitors.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Dutchy
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:52 am

keesje wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
mig17 wrote:
Airbus itself think it will sell around 1000 xlr in the next 10 years : https://simpleflying.com/airbus-1000-a321xlr-orders/
That is still relative compared to the more than 10000 narrowbody orderbook of Airbus and Boeing combined. Does developping or even improving a dedicated plane for 1000 frames over a decade is worth it? Now for Airbus it is the opportunity to enlarge the potential market of their A320 platform. Maybe Boeing all new narrowbody will also be developped to be able to be as or more versatile than the A320, but does a 757 replacement make sens?


The XLR i s a dirt-cheap variant of the A321. So I think it was worth it for 50 planes.


I think the A321LR is a "dirt cheap" variant of the A321NEO. The XLR is a more significant modification to the wings, fuel systems and landing gear.

For KLM it might make sense to buy XLR because of their long haul network focus. The 737NG replacement is another question. Much depends on credible Boeing options.

Today, the XLR would be extremely valuable to keep WB routes open at lower costs, or even step into destinations abandonned by competitors.


Today is an incident, would the KLM be able to use it in normal market circumstances. Or more precisely, would it be the optimal a/c for normal operations and thus slot usage.
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keesje
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:30 am

Dutchy wrote:
keesje wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

The XLR i s a dirt-cheap variant of the A321. So I think it was worth it for 50 planes.


I think the A321LR is a "dirt cheap" variant of the A321NEO. The XLR is a more significant modification to the wings, fuel systems and landing gear.

For KLM it might make sense to buy XLR because of their long haul network focus. The 737NG replacement is another question. Much depends on credible Boeing options.

Today, the XLR would be extremely valuable to keep WB routes open at lower costs, or even step into destinations abandonned by competitors.


Today is an incident, would the KLM be able to use it in normal market circumstances. Or more precisely, would it be the optimal a/c for normal operations and thus slot usage.


I guess so. For destinations in the Middle East, Africa and US East coast.

KLM wants to fly at least daily into all destinations.

Many destinations are important / offer potential, but don't justify / enable a A330-200 profitably today.

Also daily flights into competitor's hubs helps to protect your own network.

Keeping them honest. But you don't want to spend a WB on it..

American, United and Jetblue (maybe even Frontier, Air Canada), flying XLR's into Amsterdam daily from their hubs,is becoming a new threath for KLM.

XLR's are offering something not available before. 757 costs were relatively high.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Frontier14
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:42 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if Frontier (F9) doesn't at some point try some European destinations from the US east coast once the XLRs begin to arrive in 2024. F9 has 18 on order with likely more to be ordered in the intervening years.

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A388
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:40 pm

keesje wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
keesje wrote:

KLM wants to fly at least daily into all destinations.

American, United and Jetblue (maybe even Frontier, Air Canada), flying XLR's into Amsterdam daily from their hubs,is becoming a new threath for KLM.


Where did this come from that KLM wants to fly at least daily to all destinations. There are a number of destinations KL doesn't serve on a daily basis, I would even go that far in saying that the majority of their longhaul destinations aren't served daily.

About the XLR's ordered by AA, UA and B6. Have they all said they want to use their A321NEOXLR's to AMS once they get them? I remember B6 saying something like that but not sure about UA and AA. Please correct me on this.

A388
 
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keesje
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:21 pm

A388 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Dutchy wrote:


Where did this come from that KLM wants to fly at least daily to all destinations. There are a number of destinations KL doesn't serve on a daily basis, I would even go that far in saying that the majority of their longhaul destinations aren't served daily.

About the XLR's ordered by AA, UA and B6. Have they all said they want to use their A321NEOXLR's to AMS once they get them? I remember B6 saying something like that but not sure about UA and AA. Please correct me on this.

A388


Yes KLM as a hub network carrier strives to fly all destinations at least daily.

They may start off 3-4 a week, but that's not the end goal. XLR's would enable getting daily earlier.

If you wait until AA, UA and Jetblue announce flights to AMS, you are 2-3 years too late to effectively counter act.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Jomar777
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:21 pm

Dutchy wrote:
mig17 wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:

Actually, the clear volume of orders the A321XLR is receiving contradicts your point - there is scope for an aircraft of these characteristics. Remember also that the B797, as proposed by Boeing recently (before being stopped pending a review) was for a WB aircraft (something like a B787-7 in size...) - not a Narrow body Aircraft.
The point being made by me is that Boeing should have never cancelled the B757 but actually upgraded it as it did with the B737 and, to some extent, the B767. When replacing the B767 and B772s by the B787, it should also have done so in regards to the B757 (or maybe moved towards a MAX version of some sorts).

Airbus did not have an answer then but it has now so Boeing clearly missed this one. Not only KLM might consider the A321XLR but also United has already ordered them. Others will follow.

The A321XLR is not only another A321 - it is actually a Long Range one and this key benefit is the one that Airlines are looking into it at present.

Airbus itself think it will sell around 1000 xlr in the next 10 years : https://simpleflying.com/airbus-1000-a321xlr-orders/
That is still relative compared to the more than 10000 narrowbody orderbook of Airbus and Boeing combined. Does developping or even improving a dedicated plane for 1000 frames over a decade is worth it? Now for Airbus it is the opportunity to enlarge the potential market of their A320 platform. Maybe Boeing all new narrowbody will also be developped to be able to be as or more versatile than the A320, but does a 757 replacement make sens?


The XLR i s a dirt-cheap variant of the A321. So I think it was worth it for 50 planes.


Same would apply if Boeing had kept the B757 afloat with updates... could even have avoided the MAX10 which does not really fills the gap... hindsight...

To come over a clean sheet plane for the segment might be a bit complicated but still better than their B797 proposal which would be redundant bearing in mind their own B787 project - even more when you consider that the B787-8 is not selling that much...
 
A388
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:24 pm

keesje wrote:
A388 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Yes KLM as a hub network carrier strives to fly all destinations at least daily.

They may start off 3-4 a week, but that's not the end goal. XLR's would enable getting daily earlier.

If you wait until AA, UA and Jetblue announce flights to AMS, you are 2-3 years too late to effectively counter act.


I totally agree with you on not reacting too late as an airline but if AA, UA, B6 do start before KL does it certainly doesn't mean your too late. You will still have your market share and eventually how it develops depends on the airline, not solely on the competition.

About the strive for daily operations, again to my knowledge most long haul destinations of KL are less then daily (for years). You plan your frequency based on your market share and demand on each route. You can strive for a lot of things but that doesn't mean it will eventually happen. I can imagine there are long haul routes which KL flies for years without it ever becoming a daily flight because 3-4 x week works the best for that route.

Please note that I'm not saying I don't want to see KL ordering the A321NEOXLR because I would love that so let's see :D

A388
 
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:44 pm

airbuster wrote:
“But Boeing if you screw up any more we will order the A321.”

I know that this is a bit off-topic, but it looks like Boeing has screwed up again, and I can’t judge how serious these problems are. There is a problem with the engine nacelles, you will get a single or dual engine failure if the engine nacelles get hit by lightning if I understand correctly. https://youtu.be/wSr_rB2r92c

There is also a problem with the wiring. https://youtu.be/nyPDPaLVfeg
Last edited by FlyingBlueKLM on Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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airbuster
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:57 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
airbuster wrote:
“But Boeing if you screw up any more we will order the A321.”

I know that this is a bit off-topic, but it looks like Boeing has screwed up again, and I can’t judge how serious these problems are. There is a problem with the engine nacelles, you will get a single or dual engine failure if the engine nacelles get hit by lightning if I understand correctly. https://youtu.be/wSr_rB2r92c

There is also a problem with the wiring. https://youtu.be/nyPDPaLVfeg


Well I believe once we get through this current mess the cards at KLM and AFKL will be significantly shuffled. It might bring a complete new viewpoint.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:02 pm

airbuster wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
airbuster wrote:
“But Boeing if you screw up any more we will order the A321.”

I know that this is a bit off-topic, but it looks like Boeing has screwed up again, and I can’t judge how serious these problems are. There is a problem with the engine nacelles, you will get a single or dual engine failure if the engine nacelles get hit by lightning if I understand correctly. https://youtu.be/wSr_rB2r92c

There is also a problem with the wiring. https://youtu.be/nyPDPaLVfeg


Well I believe once we get through this current mess the cards at KLM and AFKL will be significantly shuffled. It might bring a complete new viewpoint.

What do you mean with “the cards”?
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mig17
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:12 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
airbuster wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
I know that this is a bit off-topic, but it looks like Boeing has screwed up again, and I can’t judge how serious these problems are. There is a problem with the engine nacelles, you will get a single or dual engine failure if the engine nacelles get hit by lightning if I understand correctly. https://youtu.be/wSr_rB2r92c

There is also a problem with the wiring. https://youtu.be/nyPDPaLVfeg


Well I believe once we get through this current mess the cards at KLM and AFKL will be significantly shuffled. It might bring a complete new viewpoint.

What do you mean with “the cards”?

I suppose he means that both AF and KL or the group as a whole could be nationalized during or due to the COVID-19 crisis.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:44 am

mig17 wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
airbuster wrote:

Well I believe once we get through this current mess the cards at KLM and AFKL will be significantly shuffled. It might bring a complete new viewpoint.

What do you mean with “the cards”?

I suppose he means that both AF and KL or the group as a whole could be nationalized during or due to the COVID-19 crisis.

@mig17 If you’re talking about an AF-KLM breakup because of COVID-19, that is highly unlikely in my opinion. KLM cannot survive on its own during normal circumstances, let alone during a crisis.

Let’s just hope that AF-KLM won’t go bankrupt due to the crisis :)
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:42 pm

marcelh wrote:
keesje wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Could the corona virus possibly have any impact on these decisions?


Anything cash-out will be cancelled / reduced. KLM often proved faster & more decisive than most airlines in crisis. In the past they came out relatively stronger because of it.


A bit off-topic, but KLM won't order anything soon. What are the possibilities of a AF-KLM break-up?

I agree @marcelh. I also don't see them ordering anything soon, and I also think that the narrowbody order could even be moved to 2021 because of the current crisis.
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:46 pm

Time to close this topic. All the arguments (speculations in truth) have already been discussed, argued, reduscut and re-documented. Another moment, another reality, a global future beyond uncertain. The original discussion diluted in the face of the new global economic crisis that is coming and its developments ...
 
ewt340
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:18 pm

It seems like countries around the world actually get their sh*t together and working on the solution for the virus. Few hours ago Fujifilm's Favipiravir helps patients to recover. It's backed by the Chinese officials.

If these problems goes away in few short months. I could see orders started to pile up again before the end of the year.
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:37 am

Could KLM choose the MAX instead of the neo because the government aircraft is a 737? Airbus gave a (from what I understand) much better price to replace the Fokker 70, but the Dutch government still chose Boeing because KLM had the 737, and KLM pilots will fly the government 737.

Or would this only be a problem when the 737 would be almost phased out at KLM if they’ll order the neo?
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:18 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Could KLM choose the MAX instead of the neo because the government aircraft is a 737? Airbus gave a (from what I understand) much better price to replace the Fokker 70, but the Dutch government still chose Boeing because KLM had the 737, and KLM pilots will fly the government 737.

Or would this only be a problem when the 737 would be almost phased out at KLM if they’ll order the neo?


Yes, so that would be only a problem in 5 or 10years, if the KLM orders the NEO and Transavia doesn't order the MAX either. Transavia is on record to get the MAX.
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marcelh
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:34 am

Corendon Netherlands and TUIfly Netherlands also have the 737 and already ordered the MAX
 
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:46 am

Do anyone think that not KL alone but the AFR-KLM Group will place the order instead, for both AF and KL?
Especially when AF is operating a damn old fleet of A321s (average 17.4 years old); including five A321-100s.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:02 am

Antaras wrote:
Do anyone think that not KL alone but the AFR-KLM Group will place the order instead, for both AF and KL?
Especially when AF is operating a damn old fleet of A321s (average 17.4 years old); including five A321-100s.

I also think it will be a group order.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... in-content

I’m not subscribed to this article, but I can still see some text on my computer, and this is what the article says:

Report: Air France-KLM To Reveal Major Narrowbody Order
July 29, 2019

Credit: Air France-KLM
Air France-KLM is reportedly set to announce a large order for new narrowbody aircraft as CEO Ben Smith moves forward with a long-awaited revamp of the airline group’s short- and medium-haul fleet.

This article is at least making it sound like it’ll be a group order. Can they get more discounts if the group makes an order because that will most likely be a bulk order?
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mig17
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:41 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Antaras wrote:
Do anyone think that not KL alone but the AFR-KLM Group will place the order instead, for both AF and KL?
Especially when AF is operating a damn old fleet of A321s (average 17.4 years old); including five A321-100s.

I also think it will be a group order.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... in-content

I’m not subscribed to this article, but I can still see some text on my computer, and this is what the article says:

Report: Air France-KLM To Reveal Major Narrowbody Order
July 29, 2019

Credit: Air France-KLM
Air France-KLM is reportedly set to announce a large order for new narrowbody aircraft as CEO Ben Smith moves forward with a long-awaited revamp of the airline group’s short- and medium-haul fleet.

This article is at least making it sound like it’ll be a group order. Can they get more discounts if the group makes an order because that will most likely be a bulk order?

The article is from the 29 July and Air France-KLM did annonce they were ordering 60 firm plus 60 options A220-300 destined for Air France on the 30 July.
Since the A350 and 787 order, all major order are made by the group. That doesn't mean they are combined orders.

Back on track, both the French and Dutch gouvernement are ready to save Air France and KLM and are talking together on how to do so if needed. Are they going to save the group or are they going to save their respective airline in some kind of divorce isn't clear yet.
On the Airbus front, gouvernement are also considering buying around 30 billion € of planes in the next 3 years to support the industry. How is also unclear.
But both plan combined means European gouvernements will want to support both their airline and Airbus. I don't think a Boeing order from KLM (or Air France-KLM) in the next 3 years is a possibility anymore. The likely scenario now is that the Dutch state is going to help KLM or the group finance 737 replacement with new A320 neo family planes. What was I presume Ben Smith plan all along. Even the longer term possibility of MAX at Transavia and Transavia France is very questionnable now.
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:56 am

My most suggestion is - KL 737 MAX with AF A320neo. AF HOP could transfer the E190 to KL while A220 is better to replace the E-Jets for them. HV, KL will then fly Boeing 737 only for SH fleet. Do you thing this is a good idea or not? I see most people has a similar suggestion like this.
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:04 pm

mig17 wrote:
Who would want a grounded, not well born, bad pr, futur uncertain airplane over the A321n which is also the supperior product?

Here's your answer:

PANAMsterdam wrote:
My two cents:
* [...]Because KLM nor Transavia has ever flown with the A320-series aircraft (maybe a lease once of 1 plane?) they don't have trained pilots so they would need to retrain all of their 737-pilots which also costs a lot of money

Sure KLM could get A320neo/A321neo, but they would have to re-train all of their pilots, mechanics, and ground staff who work the 737 to work the A320/A321 instead. That's extremely expensive and is it really worth it? Not so simple when you have 50 or more 737's in your fleet. Plus, with KLM already planning to phase out their A330's...

And lastly, buying the 737 Max could help restore lost confidence. I still hate the general public, by the way.
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:20 pm

asr0dzjq wrote:
mig17 wrote:
Who would want a grounded, not well born, bad pr, futur uncertain airplane over the A321n which is also the supperior product?

Here's your answer:

PANAMsterdam wrote:
My two cents:
* [...]Because KLM nor Transavia has ever flown with the A320-series aircraft (maybe a lease once of 1 plane?) they don't have trained pilots so they would need to retrain all of their 737-pilots which also costs a lot of money

Sure KLM could get A320neo/A321neo, but they would have to re-train all of their pilots, mechanics, and ground staff who work the 737 to work the A320/A321 instead. That's extremely expensive and is it really worth it? Not so simple when you have 50 or more 737's in your fleet. Plus, with KLM already planning to phase out their A330's...

And lastly, buying the 737 Max could help restore lost confidence. I still hate the general public, by the way.


The "saving cost by commonality" is what triggered the 737-MAX crisis, so ...
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:46 pm

asr0dzjq wrote:
mig17 wrote:
Who would want a grounded, not well born, bad pr, futur uncertain airplane over the A321n which is also the supperior product?

Here's your answer:

PANAMsterdam wrote:
My two cents:
* [...]Because KLM nor Transavia has ever flown with the A320-series aircraft (maybe a lease once of 1 plane?) they don't have trained pilots so they would need to retrain all of their 737-pilots which also costs a lot of money

Sure KLM could get A320neo/A321neo, but they would have to re-train all of their pilots, mechanics, and ground staff who work the 737 to work the A320/A321 instead. That's extremely expensive and is it really worth it? Not so simple when you have 50 or more 737's in your fleet. Plus, with KLM already planning to phase out their A330's...

And lastly, buying the 737 Max could help restore lost confidence. I still hate the general public, by the way.


Of course switching to a A220/A321 fleet will cost a lot of money. But it might still be a better idea than investing in new 737s. The MAX is the least popular aircraft to invest in for the next 20 years, airlines are cancelling them where they can.

Why should KLM, who hasn't ordered MAX (thanks god..), do a freak investment. You obviously love Boeing more than KLM.

Not that I believe this on top the agenda in the coming months.. :worried:
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:10 pm

keesje wrote:
Not that I believe this on top the agenda in the coming months.. :worried:


Make that the next year. I think AF/KL is pleased it didn't order anything. At least one liability less.
 
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:10 pm

keesje wrote:
Of course switching to a A220/A321 fleet will cost a lot of money.

I do understand why KLM would operate A321s, but why would KLC operate A220s if they already ordered E2s?

LJ wrote:
Make that the next year. I think AF/KL is pleased it didn't order anything. At least one liability less.

I agree. I only see them ordering when the aviation market is stabilised. Unless they get a too good to refuse price from Airbus and/or Boeing during this crisis. :)
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:13 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
keesje wrote:
Of course switching to a A220/A321 fleet will cost a lot of money.

I do understand why KLM would operate A321s, but why would KLC operate A220s if they already ordered E2s?


An 220-300/-500 fleet combined with A321 and KLc taking care of anything smaller might be feasible. Best of both worlds.

KLM E195-E2 will carry 132seats single class. A220-300 carries ~145 single class.

At this stage 737-800/A320 dominate NB operations by a large percentage. That might change if A220 ramps up/ grows & MAX takes time.
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:25 pm

The A321 would be useful for KLM for one reason: it can accept the LD3-45 container.

I'm looking at the Air France-KLM 737 roster, and this is what I see, a total of 132 737s in the group.

Transavia: 7 73G, 35 73H (all direct orders - 6 leased or sub-leased to other airlines)
Transavia France: 38 73H and one order (24 direct orders, 14 secondhand acquisitions, of which 4 are leased or sub-leased to other airlines; order is ex-9W)
KLM: 16 73G, 31 73H, 5 73J (non-ER) (51 direct orders, 1 from lessor, all acquired new)

On the KLM side, 13 73H and all five 73J are older than 18 years, with the oldest being 21 years. The oldest 11 are fully owned by Air France-KLM, and could be sold to a leasing company that would convert them to freighters (the remaining 7 could be retired once their leases expire).

On the Transavia side, 5 of the oldest 6 73Hs are also fully owned, all at least 19 years old.

If the group were to retire the 73Gs, which aren't a real fit for KLM unless they have certain missions that a 73H can't do (23 in all), plus the five 73Js, the secondhand 73Hs at Transavia France (14), and the oldest 19 73Hs that were direct orders, the group would have 71 737s in the fleet total. However, it would make sense to retain some of the younger secondhand 73Hs to maintain a total of 80 or so 73Hs, all of which would be assigned to Transavia and Transavia France. The mainline KLM narrow-body fleet could then be reconstituted with a sizeable order of A321neo aircraft, around 55-60 in all (with more A321neo allocated to Air France). The question though might be if they would go with a P&W engine of higher thrust than anything CFM can offer.

The advantage would be the ability to containerize cargo on all mainline KLM planes. Yes crews and pilots would need to be retrained, but over time, KLM mainline would still only have two pilot groups: A321 and B772/B77W/B789/B78X. Transavia would be all 73H, and CityHopper all E290/E295.
 
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:08 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
The A321 would be useful for KLM for one reason: it can accept the LD3-45 container.

I'm looking at the Air France-KLM 737 roster, and this is what I see, a total of 132 737s in the group.

Transavia: 7 73G, 35 73H (all direct orders - 6 leased or sub-leased to other airlines)
Transavia France: 38 73H and one order (24 direct orders, 14 secondhand acquisitions, of which 4 are leased or sub-leased to other airlines; order is ex-9W)
KLM: 16 73G, 31 73H, 5 73J (non-ER) (51 direct orders, 1 from lessor, all acquired new)

On the KLM side, 13 73H and all five 73J are older than 18 years, with the oldest being 21 years. The oldest 11 are fully owned by Air France-KLM, and could be sold to a leasing company that would convert them to freighters (the remaining 7 could be retired once their leases expire).

On the Transavia side, 5 of the oldest 6 73Hs are also fully owned, all at least 19 years old.

If the group were to retire the 73Gs, which aren't a real fit for KLM unless they have certain missions that a 73H can't do (23 in all), plus the five 73Js, the secondhand 73Hs at Transavia France (14), and the oldest 19 73Hs that were direct orders, the group would have 71 737s in the fleet total. However, it would make sense to retain some of the younger secondhand 73Hs to maintain a total of 80 or so 73Hs, all of which would be assigned to Transavia and Transavia France. The mainline KLM narrow-body fleet could then be reconstituted with a sizeable order of A321neo aircraft, around 55-60 in all (with more A321neo allocated to Air France). The question though might be if they would go with a P&W engine of higher thrust than anything CFM can offer.

The advantage would be the ability to containerize cargo on all mainline KLM planes. Yes crews and pilots would need to be retrained, but over time, KLM mainline would still only have two pilot groups: A321 and B772/B77W/B789/B78X. Transavia would be all 73H, and CityHopper all E290/E295.

KLM is retiring their 73Gs, all of them are planned to be retired by 2022. KLM mostly flies with CFM/GE, but the E2 has PW engines, and if the PW engine is quieter than the CFM I’m almost sure KLM will select PW because of Schiphol’s very stringent noise restrictions.
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IWMBH
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:36 pm

I don’t think we’ll see a new order in the near future with all the trouble surrounding the corona virus. KL is probably happy they don’t have many planes on order.
 
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:32 pm

IWMBH wrote:
I don’t think we’ll see a new order in the near future with all the trouble surrounding the corona virus. KL is probably happy they don’t have many planes on order.


Disagree. Airlines getting bailouts will move quickly to grab production slots. It gives them even larger advantages over cash strapped competitors.
 
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:30 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
keesje wrote:
Of course switching to a A220/A321 fleet will cost a lot of money.

I do understand why KLM would operate A321s, but why would KLC operate A220s if they already ordered E2s?

LJ wrote:
Make that the next year. I think AF/KL is pleased it didn't order anything. At least one liability less.

I agree. I only see them ordering when the aviation market is stabilised. Unless they get a too good to refuse price from Airbus and/or Boeing during this crisis. :)


Because Air France also order and operated A220 and A320/A321. Airbus would give them a really nice discount for A220 or A321neo. It would be stupid for Airbus not to give them big discount. Especially since Air France hasn't order any NEOs yet. They would probably order for both airlines at the same time to get larger discount under the Air France-KLM brand.

If KLM switch to all Airbus narrow-bodies, they could push down maintenance and operational costs for majority of their operations. It would definitely be cheaper to use the same aircraft family for their company rather than using A220, A320neo/A321neo, E-Jet2 and MAX at the same time.
 
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:14 am

I think this is the perfect time for Boeing to try and finish 737 max issues before everything come back to normal. Airlines are grounding their fleets. So is a good moment.
 
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:57 am

YEYO wrote:
I think this is the perfect time for Boeing to try and finish 737 max issues before everything come back to normal. Airlines are grounding their fleets. So is a good moment.

However, "to try and finish 737 max issues" is not as easy as cooking a bowl of noodle :D
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:30 am

ewt340 wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
keesje wrote:
Of course switching to a A220/A321 fleet will cost a lot of money.

I do understand why KLM would operate A321s, but why would KLC operate A220s if they already ordered E2s?

LJ wrote:
Make that the next year. I think AF/KL is pleased it didn't order anything. At least one liability less.

I agree. I only see them ordering when the aviation market is stabilised. Unless they get a too good to refuse price from Airbus and/or Boeing during this crisis. :)


Because Air France also order and operated A220 and A320/A321. Airbus would give them a really nice discount for A220 or A321neo. It would be stupid for Airbus not to give them big discount. Especially since Air France hasn't order any NEOs yet. They would probably order for both airlines at the same time to get larger discount under the Air France-KLM brand.

If KLM switch to all Airbus narrow-bodies, they could push down maintenance and operational costs for majority of their operations. It would definitely be cheaper to use the same aircraft family for their company rather than using A220, A320neo/A321neo, E-Jet2 and MAX at the same time.

Agree. What are the possibilities of KLC cancelling their E2 order and AF-KLM group ordering additional A220s for KLC? And what are possibilities of AF-KLM group ordering KLM 737NG and AF A320ceo replacements during this crisis?
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marcelh
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:55 am

Antaras wrote:
YEYO wrote:
I think this is the perfect time for Boeing to try and finish 737 max issues before everything come back to normal. Airlines are grounding their fleets. So is a good moment.

However, "to try and finish 737 max issues" is not as easy as cooking a bowl of noodle :D

Finding an CoVid19 vaccin might even be faster than solving the MAX misery...
 
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keesje
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:54 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
I do understand why KLM would operate A321s, but why would KLC operate A220s if they already ordered E2s?


I agree. I only see them ordering when the aviation market is stabilised. Unless they get a too good to refuse price from Airbus and/or Boeing during this crisis. :)


Because Air France also order and operated A220 and A320/A321. Airbus would give them a really nice discount for A220 or A321neo. It would be stupid for Airbus not to give them big discount. Especially since Air France hasn't order any NEOs yet. They would probably order for both airlines at the same time to get larger discount under the Air France-KLM brand.

If KLM switch to all Airbus narrow-bodies, they could push down maintenance and operational costs for majority of their operations. It would definitely be cheaper to use the same aircraft family for their company rather than using A220, A320neo/A321neo, E-Jet2 and MAX at the same time.

Agree. What are the possibilities of KLC cancelling their E2 order and AF-KLM group ordering additional A220s for KLC? And what are possibilities of AF-KLM group ordering KLM 737NG and AF A320ceo replacements during this crisis?


The E2 are perfectly sized for serviving the extensive high frequency secondary european spokes from the AMS hub.

They'll probably order smaller E2 too at some point. The A220-300/-500 are / would be significantly bigger/more capable.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KLM_Cityhopper#Fleet
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asr0dzjq
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:13 pm

keesje wrote:
Of course switching to a A220/A321 fleet will cost a lot of money. But it might still be a better idea than investing in new 737s. The MAX is the least popular aircraft to invest in for the next 20 years, airlines are cancelling them where they can.

Why should KLM, who hasn't ordered MAX (thanks god..), do a freak investment. You obviously love Boeing more than KLM.

Not that I believe this on top the agenda in the coming months.. :worried:

Look. I'm trying to be realistic here. What you've said is utter nonsense and based off nothing but your own ego.
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ewt340
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:50 pm

asr0dzjq wrote:
keesje wrote:
Of course switching to a A220/A321 fleet will cost a lot of money. But it might still be a better idea than investing in new 737s. The MAX is the least popular aircraft to invest in for the next 20 years, airlines are cancelling them where they can.

Why should KLM, who hasn't ordered MAX (thanks god..), do a freak investment. You obviously love Boeing more than KLM.

Not that I believe this on top the agenda in the coming months.. :worried:

Look. I'm trying to be realistic here. What you've said is utter nonsense and based off nothing but your own ego.


Actually, not really. It's 50/50. KLM would more likely to order MAX in the past, but looking at the grounding and the crash + slots restrictions in AMS makes them think twice.
The other major reason to switch is the fact that Air France uses A320/A321 and A220.

THe grounding and the MAX problems would likely be the tipping point for them.
 
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:16 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Look. I'm trying to be realistic here. What you've said is utter nonsense and based off nothing but your own ego.

Actually, not really. It's 50/50. KLM would more likely to order MAX in the past, but looking at the grounding and the crash + slots restrictions in AMS makes them think twice.
The other major reason to switch is the fact that Air France uses A320/A321 and A220.

THe grounding and the MAX problems would likely be the tipping point for them.

Thank you for thinking through this seriously. I always like it when someone actually uses their brain and doesn't just blindly put out inane dribble.
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keesje
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:46 pm

asr0dzjq wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Look. I'm trying to be realistic here. What you've said is utter nonsense and based off nothing but your own ego.

Actually, not really. It's 50/50. KLM would more likely to order MAX in the past, but looking at the grounding and the crash + slots restrictions in AMS makes them think twice.
The other major reason to switch is the fact that Air France uses A320/A321 and A220.

THe grounding and the MAX problems would likely be the tipping point for them.

Thank you for thinking through this seriously. I always like it when someone actually uses their brain and doesn't just blindly put out inane dribble.


Some a.net members are qualified engineers and actually work(ed) on the fleets, for operators, with Boeing etc..

This operator is knowledgeable (few hundred engineers), well financed & didn't order the MAX during the last 8 years. Things surfaced during the last year.

They do their homework, that's why they survived 100 years.
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:39 am

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
A prolonged recession could have KLM looking towards smaller narrowbodies again. More flying could shift to Embraer E2s.

In my opinion that is very unlikely due to the slot constraints at EHAM, and I don’t think the VNV and VNC would accept the E2 (partially) taking over the 737 flying.


Larger narrowbodies though would be a possibility. Keep in mind that Transavia could become an all-Boeing 737-800 operator, taking in the mainline KLM fleet, and that would include the final passenger B738 ever built, also ensuring that the group can then take its time on seeing if the MAX 8 works, that would be a replacement in about 10 years if it does for older frames. If KLM does get A21Ns, I expect that it would be to make that its only narrow-body (mainline). KLM could configure its frames in the same configuration as Air New Zealand does (with a C/Y+ of 32" and a Y of 31"...all seats 17.5" wide)...214 seats.

The bigger advantage for the A21N though---is the ability to carry containerized cargo in an LD3-45.
 
asr0dzjq
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:19 pm

keesje wrote:
They do their homework[; the reason they didn't order the MAX during the last 8 years is] why they survived 100 years.

Do you have a source for that?
R.I.P. Douglas Aircraft Company
Born 22 July 1921 | Died 23 May 2006
You will be missed, but your management will not.

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