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Exeiowa
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:28 pm

Its obvious that the MAX will be the last iteration of the 737. So what comes after will require new infrastructure. Its longevity in the marketplace will be shortened by the knowledge that something else has to come after it. So the opportunity cost of switching will likely not be as high as it might otherwise appear
 
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keesje
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:50 pm

asr0dzjq wrote:
keesje wrote:
They do their homework, that's why they survived 100 years.


Do you have a source for that?


Yes, many sources, experiences, business cases and results.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
LJ
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:37 pm

asr0dzjq wrote:
keesje wrote:
They do their homework[; the reason they didn't order the MAX during the last 8 years is] why they survived 100 years.

Do you have a source for that?


You misquote as the reason why KLM is still in business is because they fly their short haul fleet for at least 20 years and longer if the economics do not require them to otherwise. To be honest, I hope that KLM will do its part in the climate change debate (a very hot topic in The Netherlands) and orders either NEO or MAX, but unless they can make more money with it, they would order neither. If they really need/ant them they'll call a leasiing company (as they did with the 767) and they'll get them sooner than anyone would think.
 
asr0dzjq
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Re: KLM mulls A321 order

Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:44 am

LJ wrote:
asr0dzjq wrote:
keesje wrote:
They do their homework[; the reason they didn't order the MAX during the last 8 years is] why they survived 100 years.

Do you have a source for that?


You misquote as the reason why KLM is still in business is because they fly their short haul fleet for at least 20 years and longer if the economics do not require them to otherwise. To be honest, I hope that KLM will do its part in the climate change debate (a very hot topic in The Netherlands) and orders either NEO or MAX, but unless they can make more money with it, they would order neither. If they really need/ant them they'll call a leasiing company (as they did with the 767) and they'll get them sooner than anyone would think.

Hey, thanks for being realistic.
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danipawa
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:00 am

There are few nearly new frames MAX and NEOS getting available ..
 
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lightsaber
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:00 am

I don't think KLM will order soon.

I also think Boeing will counter with a great -10 MAX or possibly -9ER offer when the time comes.

Post Coronavirus, no one will recall the MAX.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
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flee
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:29 am

Covid-19 has reset the aviation industry, maybe by 5 years. Most airlines will have to reset their business plans and perhaps go back to where they were 5 years ago. As such, fleet requirements will most likely be scaled down. KLM will be no exception. It should be interesting to see if they just do a slow transition of their narrowbody fleet by leasing new aircraft as the old ones are retired. That way, they can do a short term replacement while waiting for brand new technology to emerge.
 
oschkosch
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:58 am

lightsaber wrote:
I don't think KLM will order soon.

I also think Boeing will counter with a great -10 MAX or possibly -9ER offer when the time comes.

Post Coronavirus, no one will recall the MAX.

Lightsaber



No Airline is ordering anything soon. I don't expect any airplane order globally until we get closer to end of 2020, possibly even beyond that. I wish of course that things become normal quicker.
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
LJ
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:21 pm

flee wrote:
That way, they can do a short term replacement while waiting for brand new technology to emerge.


Which is probably the the best startegy at the moment. If Boeing decides to start working on the next generation narrowbody which may emerge 2030 - 2035, why buy a MAX or NEO if you know it will be "old technology" in 15 years time? I reccall that the 767s were meant af an interim solution for the fact that the A310s became useless for the missions the needed to perform. Most of KLMs NGs can fly for another 10 years or more. Not ideal from an environmental point of view, but as the number of movements may be lower for the first 5 years, there may not be an incentive for KLM to order MAX or NEO for that reason (and they can always argue that due to COVID-19 they cannot afford aircraft which are more envirionmentally friendlier than their NGs).
 
FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:15 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Actually, not really. It's 50/50. KLM would more likely to order MAX in the past, but looking at the grounding and the crash + slots restrictions in AMS makes them think twice.
The other major reason to switch is the fact that Air France uses A320/A321 and A220.

The grounding and the MAX problems would likely be the tipping point for them.


Agree. @airbuster made a post saying:

airbuster wrote:
This is exactly the way KL is playing it. Yes they still have a preference for the MAX. “But Boeing if you screw up any more we will order the A321.”


I do agree with @airbuster, and if what he said is true, this in my opinion means that there’s a little bit higher chance that KLM could order the neo. Since Pieter Elbers made that statement, and since @airbuster made that post Boeing has screwed up again: lightning strikes can cause a single or dual engine failure, they installed HUDs on aircraft that were not certified for it, and there is faulty wiring. Sources:

https://youtu.be/wSr_rB2r92c

https://youtu.be/Nl5jjW2j1fM

https://youtu.be/nyPDPaLVfeg

All of these problems are MAX problems.

In my opinion, the only way to replace the 73G is to lease, because it’s impossible to order 16 new aircraft and expecting all of them to be arrived by the “no more KL 73G year”, which is 2022.

Hopefully I didn’t turn this thread into a MAX thread :confused:

I don’t see AF-KL ordering anything for the next 6 months.
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Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

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keesje
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:51 pm

KLM has never been following the herd, doing the expected. They are looking how to come out stronger. Since the french partners tried to carefully sideline (more lean, profitable) KLM and share it's bank account, the government woke up, is paying attention again, restored balance.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
airbuster
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:59 pm

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Actually, not really. It's 50/50. KLM would more likely to order MAX in the past, but looking at the grounding and the crash + slots restrictions in AMS makes them think twice.
The other major reason to switch is the fact that Air France uses A320/A321 and A220.

The grounding and the MAX problems would likely be the tipping point for them.


Agree. @airbuster made a post saying:

airbuster wrote:
This is exactly the way KL is playing it. Yes they still have a preference for the MAX. “But Boeing if you screw up any more we will order the A321.”


I do agree with @airbuster, and if what he said is true, this in my opinion means that there’s a little bit higher chance that KLM could order the neo. Since Pieter Elbers made that statement, and since @airbuster made that post Boeing has screwed up again: lightning strikes can cause a single or dual engine failure, they installed HUDs on aircraft that were not certified for it, and there is faulty wiring. Sources:

https://youtu.be/wSr_rB2r92c

https://youtu.be/Nl5jjW2j1fM

https://youtu.be/nyPDPaLVfeg

All of these problems are MAX problems.

In my opinion, the only way to replace the 73G is to lease, because it’s impossible to order 16 new aircraft and expecting all of them to be arrived by the “no more KL 73G year”, which is 2022.

Hopefully I didn’t turn this thread into a MAX thread :confused:

I don’t see AF-KL ordering anything for the next 6 months.


I believe my viewpoint that you quoted is still valid in the current crisis. KL doesn’t need more capacity at the moment and after this mess is over the ramp up will be slow. They aren’t in a hurry anymore to order anything.

But as I said about the “cards being shuffled” within AFKL group dynamics could change in these coming times. Focusing on cost reduction for example by more consolidation and group level decisions. Could be in favor of the NEO.

Furthermore I believe the Boeing/Embraer JV might not come to fruition after all. It’s very possible that the KLM E2 deal was part of a larger E2/ potential MAX order. Again this change could be in favor of the NEO.

Interesting times ahead.
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FlyingBlueKLM
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:14 pm

airbuster wrote:
But as I said about the “cards being shuffled” within AFKL group dynamics could change in these coming times. Focusing on cost reduction for example by more consolidation and group level decisions. Could be in favor of the NEO.

Furthermore I believe the Boeing/Embraer JV might not come to fruition after all. It’s very possible that the KLM E2 deal was part of a larger E2/ potential MAX order. Again this change could be in favor of the NEO.

Interesting times ahead.

Agree. The EC has blocked the joint venture because there won’t be enough competition if that deal would happen.
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Lewton
Posts: 149
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:08 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
Its obvious that the MAX will be the last iteration of the 737. So what comes after will require new infrastructure. Its longevity in the marketplace will be shortened by the knowledge that something else has to come after it. So the opportunity cost of switching will likely not be as high as it might otherwise appear

Still you wouldn't want to switch from the 737 to something else and then have to switch again.
The MAX has a great appeal to KLM for the short term, even if down the road they will have to make a new decision.
From Hamburg with love.
 
LJ
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:15 am

Lewton wrote:
Exeiowa wrote:
Its obvious that the MAX will be the last iteration of the 737. So what comes after will require new infrastructure. Its longevity in the marketplace will be shortened by the knowledge that something else has to come after it. So the opportunity cost of switching will likely not be as high as it might otherwise appear

Still you wouldn't want to switch from the 737 to something else and then have to switch again.
The MAX has a great appeal to KLM for the short term, even if down the road they will have to make a new decision.


You're assumption is that the regulators will keep allowing NG pilots to fly the MAX simultaneously, which isn't 100% certain.

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
Agree. The EC has blocked the joint venture because there won’t be enough competition if that deal would happen.

It's not blocked (yet), the decision is postponed till end of June.

FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
I don’t see AF-KL ordering anything for the next 6 months.

And therefore should conclude this thread....
 
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keesje
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:32 am

Lewton wrote:
The MAX has a great appeal to KLM for the short term, even if down the road they will have to make a new decision.


- KLM did not order the MAX for 7 years, as a larger, long term 737 legacy operator.
- Pilot training might represent a fraction of costs considering a 20-25 yr fleet type operation, e.g. AF infrastructure (inhouse simulators etc.) could be used.

Image
http://www.axys-be.fr/bureau-etudes-mai ... allations/

All said, KLM will probably let the Corona pass, wait a year, see how the NEO backlog gets cleaned up.

Monitor how the MAX saga evolves & discuss the A220-500 with AF in Toulouse, talk about an FSA in Chicago and then take the best decision.

IMO a fleet of E195-E2, A220-300, A220-500, A321NEO takes the best of three worlds, while using 737-800 for as long as it takes.

They probably won't place all their eggs in one basket. Ask the MAX customer base about that. Don't expect any sentiments / emotional loyalty.

They will introduce 35x E195-E2 to start with, while retiring the 737-700 fleet. Interestingly 21 of those E2's are leased.

Image
https://airlinergs.com/embraer-s-a-klm- ... -aircraft/
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
inkjet7
Posts: 189
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:00 am

keesje wrote:
[
They will introduce 35x E195-E2 to start with, while retiring the 737-700 fleet. Interestingly 21 of those E2's are leased.

The 21 (!) E195-E2's are/were planned to replace 17 E190's. A list of these 17 appeared on Dutch forum scamble.nl. Nothing to do with B737's.
 
VSMUT
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:17 am

airbuster wrote:
It’s very possible that the KLM E2 deal was part of a larger E2/ potential MAX order.


As the E2s are leased, I find that doubtful. The negotiations would have been between KLM and the leasing company, not KLM and Boeing/Embraer.
 
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keesje
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:59 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
keesje wrote:
[
They will introduce 35x E195-E2 to start with, while retiring the 737-700 fleet. Interestingly 21 of those E2's are leased.

The 21 (!) E195-E2's are/were planned to replace 17 E190's. A list of these 17 appeared on Dutch forum scamble.nl. Nothing to do with B737's.


Correct, they will get 35 195-E2, with 132 seats while they continue to phase out the 17 737-700 (142 seats).
No further NB have been ordered.

But, it has nothing to do with each other, because Pieter said so, once.
I won't try to sell a bridge here..




.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
FlyingBlueKLM
Posts: 223
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:52 am

Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:22 pm

keesje wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
keesje wrote:
[
They will introduce 35x E195-E2 to start with, while retiring the 737-700 fleet. Interestingly 21 of those E2's are leased.

The 21 (!) E195-E2's are/were planned to replace 17 E190's. A list of these 17 appeared on Dutch forum scamble.nl. Nothing to do with B737's.


Correct, they will get 35 195-E2, with 132 seats while they continue to phase out the 17 737-700 (142 seats).
No further NB have been ordered.

But, it has nothing to do with each other, because Pieter said so, once.
I won't try to sell a bridge here...

KLC has firm ordered 21 E195-E2s, plus 14 purchase rights, thus totalling 35. The first 21 aircraft (the ones that they firm ordered) are leased from Embraer lessor partners Aircastle and ICBC Aviation Leasing.

Source: https://airlinergs.com/embraer-s-a-klm- ... -aircraft/

The aim of this order is to replace 17 E190s, but they can move some 73G flights to KLC.
KJFK - EGLL:

Concorde: 2 hours, 52 minutes, and 59 seconds

Boeing 747: 4 hours and 56 minutes
 
inkjet7
Posts: 189
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Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:11 pm

keesje wrote:

Correct, they will get 35 195-E2, with 132 seats while they continue to phase out the 17 737-700 (142 seats).
No further NB have been ordered.

But, it has nothing to do with each other, because Pieter said so, once.

Pre Corona, it did not make sense to replace planes with more than 132 seats with planes that had 132. Post Corona things might be different.
By the way there is a lease deal for 21 planes, the other 14 are 'purchase rights'.
 
LJ
Posts: 5382
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: KLM considers A321 order

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:58 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
keesje wrote:

Correct, they will get 35 195-E2, with 132 seats while they continue to phase out the 17 737-700 (142 seats).
No further NB have been ordered.

But, it has nothing to do with each other, because Pieter said so, once.

Pre Corona, it did not make sense to replace planes with more than 132 seats with planes that had 132. Post Corona things might be different.
By the way there is a lease deal for 21 planes, the other 14 are 'purchase rights'.


However, the unions will object as this will reduce KLM in favour of KLM Cityhopper (which has lower pay). We'll see what happen and what happens with this lease contract.

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