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jplatts
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:41 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
tphuang wrote:
MAX has really killed them.

Which is why A.net can laugh all it wants, but I'd be shocked if WN wasn't undergoing some serious reevaluation (with more variables than a typical review) as to whether the single-fleet strategy has outlived its preferable utility.


Examples of non-legacy U.S. airlines that have operated more than one fleet type:
  • HP had operated A319, A320, 737-300, and 757-200 planes prior to the HP-US merger
  • F9 had operated 737-200 and 737-300 planes prior to transitioning to an all-Airbus fleet
  • FL had operated 717's in addition to 737-700's prior to the WN-FL merger
  • B6 still operates some E190's in addition to A320 and A321 aircraft
  • G4 previously operated MD-80 and 757 aircraft, but now has an all-Airbus fleet
  • TZ operated 737-800, 757-200, and 757-300 aircraft prior to going out of business in 2008

WN can probably make a mixed fleet work if other LCC's in the US had been able to make a mixed-fleet strategy work in the past as WN is much bigger than the other US LCC's that have had a mixed-fleet strategy in the past.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:39 pm

Two observations of the WN Max cuts. 1. No cuts at DAL 2. Virtually no cuts from the highest frequency routes.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:48 pm

YYCFlier wrote:
No WS updates?


WS’ cuts for the summer will be largely domestic in nature or the continued cancellation of YHZ-CDG.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:55 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
Two observations of the WN Max cuts. 1. No cuts at DAL 2. Virtually no cuts from the highest frequency routes.


Going from memory/observation, but it appears that most of the cuts are new routes (i.e. announced within the past 18 months).
 
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knope2001
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:47 pm

Thanks as always, enilria!

enilria wrote:
*WN LAX-MKE JUN 0.8>0.2[0.9] JUL 1.0>0.2[1.0] AUG 0.3>0.1[1.0]


This is almost getting funny. MKE-LAX only twice weekly (sat/sun) during the summer peak. With Southwest's ongoing cuts to LAX Milwaukee will have a whopping 55 nonstops to LAX in the first 232 days of the year -- about 1.7 flights per week.

Last summer (Q3) Milwaukee had about 608 people daily (both ways combined) travel to/from the LA area, or about 4,250 per week. That's already a notable drop when you compare it to the ten-year average of 5,075 per week (nearly 20% more) but still a substantial market in spite of Southwest's slow reductions. For those 4,250 weekly passengers this summer there are planned to be 595 nonstop seats per week (both ways combined.)

It's not a weak fare market, either. Milwaukee-west coast had a rap of lower yield, but that's no longer the case.
2019 Q3 average yield and fare to/from the LA area

Yield …....... Fare …...... Miles ….. Airport
17.45 ….... 277.78 ….... 1,592 ….... STL
15.57 ….... 286.91 ….... 1,843 ….... SDF
15.44 ….... 271.10 ….... 1,756 ….... MKE
14.82 ….... 268.81 ….... 1,814 ….... IND
14.67 ….... 199.96 ….... 1,363 ….... MCI
14.05 ….... 215.68 ….... 1,535 ….... MSP
14.05 ….... 277.99 ….... 1,979 ….... DTW
13.61 ….... 238.14 ….... 1,750 ….... ORD
13.23 ….... 263.95 ….... 1,995 ….... CMH
12.53 ….... 238.10 ….... 1,900 ….... CVG
12.47 ….... 218.27 ….... 1,750 ….... MDW
11.89 ….... 246.42 ….... 2,073 ….... CLE
11.53 ….... 246.38 ….... 2,136 ….... PIT


Hopefully somebody jumps on MKE-LAX. And ideally not just something along the lines of 3x/week Frontier. It would be good to see Delta finally pull the trigger, but I've (half) joked the surest way to get DL to fly MKE-LAX is for American or United to announce it. With how hyper-competitive Delta (and other airlines) are these days I feel we might have better odds of getting a 4th SEA flight than of getting somebody else on MKE-LAX to supplement the lousy Sat/Sun service currently published.
 
CATIIIevery5yrs
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:11 am

LAX772LR wrote:
This MAX piece o' crap is like a bad joke that just keeps getting worse.

Gonna take Boeing years to recover from this in some ways. :(


The MAX. Lol.
 
jplatts
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:28 am

knope2001 wrote:
Thanks as always, enilria!

enilria wrote:
*WN LAX-MKE JUN 0.8>0.2[0.9] JUL 1.0>0.2[1.0] AUG 0.3>0.1[1.0]


This is almost getting funny. MKE-LAX only twice weekly (sat/sun) during the summer peak. With Southwest's ongoing cuts to LAX Milwaukee will have a whopping 55 nonstops to LAX in the first 232 days of the year -- about 1.7 flights per week.

Last summer (Q3) Milwaukee had about 608 people daily (both ways combined) travel to/from the LA area, or about 4,250 per week. That's already a notable drop when you compare it to the ten-year average of 5,075 per week (nearly 20% more) but still a substantial market in spite of Southwest's slow reductions. For those 4,250 weekly passengers this summer there are planned to be 595 nonstop seats per week (both ways combined.)

It's not a weak fare market, either. Milwaukee-west coast had a rap of lower yield, but that's no longer the case.

Hopefully somebody jumps on MKE-LAX. And ideally not just something along the lines of 3x/week Frontier. It would be good to see Delta finally pull the trigger, but I've (half) joked the surest way to get DL to fly MKE-LAX is for American or United to announce it. With how hyper-competitive Delta (and other airlines) are these days I feel we might have better odds of getting a 4th SEA flight than of getting somebody else on MKE-LAX to supplement the lousy Sat/Sun service currently published.


I had mentioned AA adding MKE-LAX nonstop service as a possibility with AA having more market share at LAX than DL, UA, or WN. AA could also add MKE-MIA and MKE-LGA nonstop service in addition to MKE-LAX nonstop service.

I agree that DL adding MKE-LAX nonstop service is a possibility with DL having a hub at LAX and DL already serving LAX nonstop from CVG, CMH, DTW, IND, MCI, MSP, and OMA. DL could also add MKE-RDU nonstop service with DL already serving RDU nonstop from some other Midwestern cities and with RDU being one of the top destinations not currently served nonstop from MKE. DL also isn't having to make any 737 MAX-grounding related cuts whereas AA and WN are both facing plane shortages due to the current 737 MAX grounding.

If an airline other than WN were to add MKE-LAX nonstop service, it would probably be either AA or DL.
 
jayunited
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:45 am

UALifer wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Once you have data to show that DEN is cut relatively less than other hubs (to support the dialog that UA is 'growing' DEN), you'll have something to say.


Here you go, this is what's currently out there for the summer:

DEN +44 departures
EWR +13 departures
IAD +28 departures
IAH +25 departures
LAX +7 departures
ORD +31 departures
SFO +5 departures

Even after the "cuts" this weekend, all hubs are still growing and DEN is still growing the most by far. The schedule out there selling probably still isn't final, but there's nothing to indicate that UA has reversed what they've been saying.


UALifer thank you for your post in response to Mlflyer12.
Also I've gone back to look at UA's MAX deliveries, come summer 2020 UA was counting on having 56 MAXs in our fleet.
 
MO11
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:28 am

F27500 wrote:
Ummmm .... "Hopscotch Air"? .. Lawd thats horrible.

I live in CT and never heard of it .. looks alike a company out of Farmingdale based on their website Flyhopscotch.com ...mostly into private charters .. is this a new one tryna stick their toe into Cape Air's turf? Should be interesting ... but that name .. .LOL


Hopscotch has 4 SR-22s and an SR-20 on its certificate, so there has to be more to this story. Also, since it is an on-demand only carrier, it would be limited to 4 weekly roundtrips in each market.
 
yoeleven
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 2:31 am

CURQ400 wrote:


I don't quite get how AY makes all these connections work. It's not exactly at a great geographical location.

HEL is in a great position for connections. Sure, not ideal for travelers from the US to Europe, but you forget Asia. JFK-HEL-SE Asia (and India) is more often than not the shortest option (after non-stops, of which there are few.)


Probably have some extra widebody frames that likely won't restart to China any time soon. PEK and PVG may be back, but business case for Nanjing, Xian, or Chongqing will probably take quite a while to recover. May as well put those to use.
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:05 am

UA extending SFO-DUB into November must be a good sign of how that route is already booking up before it even launches
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:03 am

jplatts wrote:
Examples of non-legacy U.S. airlines that have operated more than one fleet type:

Technically, WN fits that description as well...
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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QuawerAir
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 2:00 pm

CURQ400 wrote:
I don't quite get how AY makes all these connections work. It's not exactly at a great geographical location.

HEL is in a great position for connections. Sure, not ideal for travelers from the US to Europe, but you forget Asia. JFK-HEL-SE Asia (and India) is more often than not the shortest option (after non-stops, of which there are few.)

A big share of Finnair's transfer passengers flying to the U.S are from Russia and other countries in Eastern Europe but there also a lot of passengers flying from Central Europe (e.g. to SFO).

As for India, the extra frequencies to JFK reduce the stopover time at HEL by 20 hours to only 2.5h on Mondays and Sundays, when flying DEL–HEL–NYC during summer season. This makes the route via HEL both one of the fastest and most affordable options between DEL and NYC. For instance, though Skyscanner one can book DEL–HEL–JFK for €542 (one-way) while several other airlines sell DEL–NYC for higher price.

So, Finnair actually provides a competitive option between Delhi and New York, not to mention the product: DEL–HEL is on A330 (to be refurbished, the cabin will be similar to A350) and HEL–JFK on A350.
ATL, AYT, FRA, FUE, HEL, JFK, LCA, LHR, MUC | AY, BA, DL, FH, LH, LO | A320, A321, A333, 752, 764, 772, 788
The word "Quawer" means nothing but it looks great.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 2:09 pm

QuawerAir wrote:
CURQ400 wrote:
I don't quite get how AY makes all these connections work. It's not exactly at a great geographical location.

HEL is in a great position for connections. Sure, not ideal for travelers from the US to Europe, but you forget Asia. JFK-HEL-SE Asia (and India) is more often than not the shortest option (after non-stops, of which there are few.)

A big share of Finnair's transfer passengers flying to the U.S are from Russia and other countries in Eastern Europe but there also a lot of passengers flying from Central Europe (e.g. to SFO).

As for India, the extra frequencies to JFK reduce the stopover time at HEL by 20 hours to only 2.5h on Mondays and Sundays, when flying DEL–HEL–NYC during summer season. This makes the route via HEL both one of the fastest and most affordable options between DEL and NYC. For instance, though Skyscanner one can book DEL–HEL–JFK for €542 (one-way) while several other airlines sell DEL–NYC for higher price.

So, Finnair actually provides a competitive option between Delhi and New York, not to mention the product: DEL–HEL is on A330 (to be refurbished, the cabin will be similar to A350) and HEL–JFK on A350.


I know a ot of Indians here in NYC. I don't know anyone who has flown AY back home. They go with either UA or ME3.

Also, SE Asia is a pretty low yielding market. When I do search for travel to that region, AY is almost never competitive with East Asian airlines in schedule on the 1-stop itineraries.
 
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QuawerAir
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 2:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
QuawerAir wrote:
CURQ400 wrote:

HEL is in a great position for connections. Sure, not ideal for travelers from the US to Europe, but you forget Asia. JFK-HEL-SE Asia (and India) is more often than not the shortest option (after non-stops, of which there are few.)

A big share of Finnair's transfer passengers flying to the U.S are from Russia and other countries in Eastern Europe but there also a lot of passengers flying from Central Europe (e.g. to SFO).

As for India, the extra frequencies to JFK reduce the stopover time at HEL by 20 hours to only 2.5h on Mondays and Sundays, when flying DEL–HEL–NYC during summer season. This makes the route via HEL both one of the fastest and most affordable options between DEL and NYC. For instance, though Skyscanner one can book DEL–HEL–JFK for €542 (one-way) while several other airlines sell DEL–NYC for higher price.

So, Finnair actually provides a competitive option between Delhi and New York, not to mention the product: DEL–HEL is on A330 (to be refurbished, the cabin will be similar to A350) and HEL–JFK on A350.


I know a ot of Indians here in NYC. I don't know anyone who has flown AY back home. They go with either UA or ME3.

Also, SE Asia is a pretty low yielding market. When I do search for travel to that region, AY is almost never competitive with East Asian airlines in schedule on the 1-stop itineraries.

Yeah, it's hard to compete against the ME3 but amongst EU airlines, AY is rather competitive. Finnair also sees increasing demand on Delhi-route in general but the problem with DEL is indeed that it's a low-yielding route.
ATL, AYT, FRA, FUE, HEL, JFK, LCA, LHR, MUC | AY, BA, DL, FH, LH, LO | A320, A321, A333, 752, 764, 772, 788
The word "Quawer" means nothing but it looks great.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 4:40 pm

BA wrote:
enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
PAE really underperforms vs SEA.

I feel like the PAE experiment is unwinding


Don't think so.

AS said in November that it was looking at starting PAE-ORD and PAE-DFW.

If AS is able to acquire UA's 3 spare slots from cutting SFO-PAE, they can make it happen. With the AS/AA tie-up, this makes ORD and DFW now even more likely.

But I have to wonder if this is a LGB situation where they think if they can get all the slots it will magically be successful by keeping out competitors. LGB proved that isn't a panacea. I'd argue competition is needed for these types of new markets to take hold.
jayunited wrote:
It is not contrary to recent dialog it just the way enilria presents the information WN was clearly presented as MAX cuts while UA is presented as UA is reducing DEN.

UA is losing a fairly small number of planes relative to their fleet. They can choose what it impacts, like AA can. WN is headed toward losing 15% of its fleet. That's gonna hit everything. I'd argue there is no comparison. UA has also backfilled lost aircraft with planes from WN making WN's situation worse. Congrats to UA on that.
jplatts wrote:
enilria wrote:
Seems like NK is really moving backwards in DFW
**NK DFW-SEA JUN 0.7>0[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[1.0]


The routes out of DFW that NK is dropping have nonstop service out of DFW/DAL on airlines other than AA or WN. There are also some travelers in the Dallas/Fort Worth market who will avoid NK at all costs due to poor customer service and NK stranding passengers in the event of cancellations or delays.

While NK had 85.56% load factors on DFW-SEA in the January 2019 - November 2019 time period, NK was competing against AA, AS, and WN on DFW/SEA (and AS also serves SEA nonstop from both DFW and DAL).

Previously NK purposefully went into routes with multiple carriers on the theory that the hub carrier would be reluctant to catch up other airlines in an aggressive retaliatory move.
YYCFlier wrote:
No WS updates?

IMHO WS is waiting for the JV to be figured out. Also, I bet DL buys a stake from that company that acquired them after it is approved.
LotsaRunway wrote:
Two observations of the WN Max cuts. 1. No cuts at DAL 2. Virtually no cuts from the highest frequency routes.

They really can't cut at DAL or risk losing gates. Too bad AA doesn't follow this policy at JFK. Notable they don't.
MO11 wrote:
F27500 wrote:
Ummmm .... "Hopscotch Air"? .. Lawd thats horrible.

I live in CT and never heard of it .. looks alike a company out of Farmingdale based on their website Flyhopscotch.com ...mostly into private charters .. is this a new one tryna stick their toe into Cape Air's turf? Should be interesting ... but that name .. .LOL


Hopscotch has 4 SR-22s and an SR-20 on its certificate, so there has to be more to this story. Also, since it is an on-demand only carrier, it would be limited to 4 weekly roundtrips in each market.

Given that these appear to be Cape Air routes what are the chances Cape Air is involved in this?
LAX772LR wrote:
tphuang wrote:
MAX has really killed them.

Which is why A.net can laugh all it wants, but I'd be shocked if WN wasn't undergoing some serious reevaluation (with more variables than a typical review) as to whether the single-fleet strategy has outlived its preferable utility.

I wouldn't be surprised if they did some sort of deal to cover this lost flying. I think they'd take any fleet type. Long term I'm not sure they will veer from Boeing. This whole thing could have happened to Airbus. They have plenty of their own problems. Even if the whole rest of the WN fleet was Airbus now they would still have the MAX grounded. So how would it have solved the problem?
 
MO11
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:04 pm

enilria wrote:
MO11 wrote:

Hopscotch has 4 SR-22s and an SR-20 on its certificate, so there has to be more to this story. Also, since it is an on-demand only carrier, it would be limited to 4 weekly roundtrips in each market.

Given that these appear to be Cape Air routes what are the chances Cape Air is involved in this?


Zero. There are other air-taxis that operate these routes that don't show up in the OAG. Hopscotch currently operates as a membership-only service, like Surf Air, whose flights occasionally sneak into this report.
 
United1
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:44 pm

enilria wrote:
jayunited wrote:
It is not contrary to recent dialog it just the way enilria presents the information WN was clearly presented as MAX cuts while UA is presented as UA is reducing DEN.

UA is losing a fairly small number of planes relative to their fleet. They can choose what it impacts, like AA can. WN is headed toward losing 15% of its fleet. That's gonna hit everything. I'd argue there is no comparison. UA has also backfilled lost aircraft with planes from WN making WN's situation worse. Congrats to UA on that.


UA was planning on having ~10% more aircraft in their domestic fleet this summer which is a bit more than a small number of planes. While UA is still growing (thanks to acquiring used aircraft) they are having to trim some of their growth plans back hence the DEN trims. We are talking about 56 aircraft...yes UA is in a better position to absorb some of that lost capacity than WN is but you are going to see some trims in UAs growth plans until that capacity comes back online.
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jayunited
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:13 pm

enilria wrote:
jayunited wrote:
It is not contrary to recent dialog it just the way enilria presents the information WN was clearly presented as MAX cuts while UA is presented as UA is reducing DEN.

UA is losing a fairly small number of planes relative to their fleet. They can choose what it impacts, like AA can. WN is headed toward losing 15% of its fleet. That's gonna hit everything. I'd argue there is no comparison. UA has also backfilled lost aircraft with planes from WN making WN's situation worse. Congrats to UA on that.



Get your facts straight the WN aircraft UA purchased are not in service and they won't be in service by the summer. UA is still pouring over all the maintenance records something WN according to some recent news publications didn't do throughly when they took delivery of some other used aircraft. Some of the frames have been flown from PAE to GYR for storage until UA has completed the process a process that can take a year if not more. Just because these aircraft are not coming from China does not mean can place them right into service. UA will treat the WN used aircraft like we did the HA 763s, and the A319/320s coming from China, there are no shortcuts to getting these planes into service.

And even though UA will not have 56 MAXs in the fleet and even with the cuts at every hub DEN will still be up 44 departures summer 2020 v.s. summer 2019.
 
BA
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:00 pm

enilria wrote:
But I have to wonder if this is a LGB situation where they think if they can get all the slots it will magically be successful by keeping out competitors. LGB proved that isn't a panacea. I'd argue competition is needed for these types of new markets to take hold.


The difference with LGB is you have SNA not too far and even LAX, so that's two airports in close proximity it has to compete with.

I'd also argue that LAX's improvements have caused LGB to be a bit less appealing than when LAX was a much worse mess than it currently is.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
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BMWdrvr75
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:58 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
tphuang wrote:
MAX has really killed them.

Which is why A.net can laugh all it wants, but I'd be shocked if WN wasn't undergoing some serious reevaluation (with more variables than a typical review) as to whether the single-fleet strategy has outlived its preferable utility.


I honestly don’t think so.... much talk about when it comes back. GK and friends are extremely committed to Boeing and the Max....
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LAX772LR
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:40 am

enilria wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if they did some sort of deal to cover this lost flying. I think they'd take any fleet type. Long term I'm not sure they will veer from Boeing. This whole thing could have happened to Airbus. They have plenty of their own problems. Even if the whole rest of the WN fleet was Airbus now they would still have the MAX grounded. So how would it have solved the problem?

You're being way too short-sighted with this.

The suggestion wasn't to go all-Airbus (or to them at all), it was to diversity to avoid risk-- which is more or less SOP for investment, which is why it's somewhat surprising that the single-fleet strategy (1) remained and (2) is as pervasive, as it currently is here in 2020. Going from all-737 to all-Anything would still present the same (if not more) risk, so that's obviously no solution.



BMWdrvr75 wrote:
I honestly don’t think so.... much talk about when it comes back. GK and friends are extremely committed to Boeing and the Max....

Of course they are NOW, but this is what's called a forward-looking statement dude.

It's arguably a breach of fiduciary responsibility to continue exposing themselves to so much risk, no matter how much it saves. Just think for a minute if this grounding had happened a few years down the road, instead of 2019, with the MAX now comprising a far larger percentage of the fleet...... how utterly F#<ked would WN, and its investors, have been?

This isn't to say that they'll actually choose to diversify; heck, you can look at who's filling JFK T6 to see that WN can make horrendous miscalculations just as much as any other airline. This is however, musing that the criteria within their evaluation is definitely being given some rearranged priority.
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:52 pm

BA wrote:
enilria wrote:
But I have to wonder if this is a LGB situation where they think if they can get all the slots it will magically be successful by keeping out competitors. LGB proved that isn't a panacea. I'd argue competition is needed for these types of new markets to take hold.


The difference with LGB is you have SNA not too far and even LAX, so that's two airports in close proximity it has to compete with.

I'd also argue that LAX's improvements have caused LGB to be a bit less appealing than when LAX was a much worse mess than it currently is.

Paine is 30 miles from SEA. LGB is 20 miles from SNA, but SNA is much smaller than SEA in terms of non-stop options and Los Angeles traffic is the worst in the U.S.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:57 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
enilria wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if they did some sort of deal to cover this lost flying. I think they'd take any fleet type. Long term I'm not sure they will veer from Boeing. This whole thing could have happened to Airbus. They have plenty of their own problems. Even if the whole rest of the WN fleet was Airbus now they would still have the MAX grounded. So how would it have solved the problem?

You're being way too short-sighted with this.

The suggestion wasn't to go all-Airbus (or to them at all), it was to diversity to avoid risk-- which is more or less SOP for investment, which is why it's somewhat surprising that the single-fleet strategy (1) remained and (2) is as pervasive, as it currently is here in 2020. Going from all-737 to all-Anything would still present the same (if not more) risk, so that's obviously no solution.



BMWdrvr75 wrote:
I honestly don’t think so.... much talk about when it comes back. GK and friends are extremely committed to Boeing and the Max....

Of course they are NOW, but this is what's called a forward-looking statement dude.

It's arguably a breach of fiduciary responsibility to continue exposing themselves to so much risk, no matter how much it saves. Just think for a minute if this grounding had happened a few years down the road, instead of 2019, with the MAX now comprising a far larger percentage of the fleet...... how utterly F#<ked would WN, and its investors, have been?

This isn't to say that they'll actually choose to diversify; heck, you can look at who's filling JFK T6 to see that WN can make horrendous miscalculations just as much as any other airline. This is however, musing that the criteria within their evaluation is definitely being given some rearranged priority.

Southwest does have a varied fleet in terms of models of the 737 which is why 15% is out of service and not 100%. Again, if they were an Airbus airline except for the MAX fleet, the situation would be identical to the current one. It seems like what you are really arguing is that they should have smaller fleets of each aircraft type. That sounds nice on paper, but is massively expensive in terms of crew and maintenance. Economies of scale are very valid in this industry. I don't think there is really a strategy that didn't require 20-20 hindsight that would have prevented this for WN. Boeing, on the other hand could have done a lot of things differently. I am fine to criticize WN if they do something wrong (and they certainly do with some frequency), but there is nothing to criticize them on the MAX. It's Boeing that deserves the criticism.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:26 pm

enilria wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
enilria wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if they did some sort of deal to cover this lost flying. I think they'd take any fleet type. Long term I'm not sure they will veer from Boeing. This whole thing could have happened to Airbus. They have plenty of their own problems. Even if the whole rest of the WN fleet was Airbus now they would still have the MAX grounded. So how would it have solved the problem?

You're being way too short-sighted with this.

The suggestion wasn't to go all-Airbus (or to them at all), it was to diversity to avoid risk-- which is more or less SOP for investment, which is why it's somewhat surprising that the single-fleet strategy (1) remained and (2) is as pervasive, as it currently is here in 2020. Going from all-737 to all-Anything would still present the same (if not more) risk, so that's obviously no solution.



BMWdrvr75 wrote:
I honestly don’t think so.... much talk about when it comes back. GK and friends are extremely committed to Boeing and the Max....

Of course they are NOW, but this is what's called a forward-looking statement dude.

It's arguably a breach of fiduciary responsibility to continue exposing themselves to so much risk, no matter how much it saves. Just think for a minute if this grounding had happened a few years down the road, instead of 2019, with the MAX now comprising a far larger percentage of the fleet...... how utterly F#<ked would WN, and its investors, have been?

This isn't to say that they'll actually choose to diversify; heck, you can look at who's filling JFK T6 to see that WN can make horrendous miscalculations just as much as any other airline. This is however, musing that the criteria within their evaluation is definitely being given some rearranged priority.

Southwest does have a varied fleet in terms of models of the 737 which is why 15% is out of service and not 100%. Again, if they were an Airbus airline except for the MAX fleet, the situation would be identical to the current one. It seems like what you are really arguing is that they should have smaller fleets of each aircraft type. That sounds nice on paper, but is massively expensive in terms of crew and maintenance. Economies of scale are very valid in this industry. I don't think there is really a strategy that didn't require 20-20 hindsight that would have prevented this for WN. Boeing, on the other hand could have done a lot of things differently. I am fine to criticize WN if they do something wrong (and they certainly do with some frequency), but there is nothing to criticize them on the MAX. It's Boeing that deserves the criticism.
Right. Even if WN were to completely split their fleet 50-50, they would be completely screwed if either one was grounded (which may actually increase risk, since there are now two types to worry about). The only way to mitigate this would be if no one type makes us too big a portion of the total fleet (20%?) that a grounding doesn't completely screw the network, which is completely impractical for an airline like WN. They may eventually add another type, but size and efficiency are going to be the main factors.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:31 pm

enilria wrote:
BA wrote:
enilria wrote:
But I have to wonder if this is a LGB situation where they think if they can get all the slots it will magically be successful by keeping out competitors. LGB proved that isn't a panacea. I'd argue competition is needed for these types of new markets to take hold.


The difference with LGB is you have SNA not too far and even LAX, so that's two airports in close proximity it has to compete with.

I'd also argue that LAX's improvements have caused LGB to be a bit less appealing than when LAX was a much worse mess than it currently is.

Paine is 30 miles from SEA. LGB is 20 miles from SNA, but SNA is much smaller than SEA in terms of non-stop options and Los Angeles traffic is the worst in the U.S.

Even worse, AS is mainly competing with themselves down at SEA. PAE is going to have to be a distinct market that will support slightly higher fares than SEA for this to work (kind of like SNA). I think it is still TBD whether PAE more like LGB or SNA.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:03 pm

enilria wrote:
BA wrote:
enilria wrote:
But I have to wonder if this is a LGB situation where they think if they can get all the slots it will magically be successful by keeping out competitors. LGB proved that isn't a panacea. I'd argue competition is needed for these types of new markets to take hold.


The difference with LGB is you have SNA not too far and even LAX, so that's two airports in close proximity it has to compete with.

I'd also argue that LAX's improvements have caused LGB to be a bit less appealing than when LAX was a much worse mess than it currently is.

Paine is 30 miles from SEA. LGB is 20 miles from SNA, but SNA is much smaller than SEA in terms of non-stop options and Los Angeles traffic is the worst in the U.S.


Heh heh, yeah, in LA 20 miles might as well be 200. :D
 
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:16 am

enilria wrote:
BA wrote:
enilria wrote:
But I have to wonder if this is a LGB situation where they think if they can get all the slots it will magically be successful by keeping out competitors. LGB proved that isn't a panacea. I'd argue competition is needed for these types of new markets to take hold.


The difference with LGB is you have SNA not too far and even LAX, so that's two airports in close proximity it has to compete with.

I'd also argue that LAX's improvements have caused LGB to be a bit less appealing than when LAX was a much worse mess than it currently is.

Paine is 30 miles from SEA. LGB is 20 miles from SNA, but SNA is much smaller than SEA in terms of non-stop options and Los Angeles traffic is the worst in the U.S.


SNA is a highly successful reliever airport to LAX, of which LGB has to compete with.

PAE does not face this competition, it is the Seattle metro area's first and currently only reliever airport to SEA.

Seattle traffic was recently ranked the 2nd worst in the U.S. after LA.
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:52 am

BA wrote:
enilria wrote:
BA wrote:

The difference with LGB is you have SNA not too far and even LAX, so that's two airports in close proximity it has to compete with.

I'd also argue that LAX's improvements have caused LGB to be a bit less appealing than when LAX was a much worse mess than it currently is.

Paine is 30 miles from SEA. LGB is 20 miles from SNA, but SNA is much smaller than SEA in terms of non-stop options and Los Angeles traffic is the worst in the U.S.


SNA is a highly successful reliever airport to LAX, of which LGB has to compete with.

PAE does not face this competition, it is the Seattle metro area's first and currently only reliever airport to SEA.

Seattle traffic was recently ranked the 2nd worst in the U.S. after LA.

A reliever airport normally can handle more than 24 flights a day. I can't think of any successful airport next to a large airport with that few # of flights. The only one that you can sort of compare it to is HPN, but HPN can handle more than double that many flights.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:25 am

SLC-STL is easy max route to cut for WN. overflies DEN, easy to reroute people who booked with time options.
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:24 am

enilria wrote:
Southwest does have a varied fleet in terms of models of the 737 which is why 15% is out of service and not 100%.

You COMPLETELY missed what I was trying to tell you.

The only reason that that applies, is because this happened NOW than later. Had it occurred a few years down the road, far larger (if not nearly total) percent of their fleet would be exposed, simply due to deliveries and replacement.




enilria wrote:
Again, if they were an Airbus airline except for the MAX fleet, the situation would be identical to the current one.

Which is why I said, in no uncertain terms:
      LAX772LR wrote:
      The suggestion wasn't to go all-Airbus (or to them at all), it was to diversity to avoid risk




cledaybuck wrote:
(which may actually increase risk, since there are now two types to worry about).

Define "worry about," as that conclusion isn't particularly logical on its face



cledaybuck wrote:
which is completely impractical for an airline like WN.

No it isn't.

Not preferable, sure.
Not optimal, perhaps.
But impractical? Hardly... airlines with far less resources, credit, scope, negotiating power, etc pull it off just fine.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:11 am

What about Renton Municipal as an alternative?
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:55 am

seat1a wrote:
What about Renton Municipal as an alternative?

Short runway, heavily residential, and no space for a terminal. That is 737 MAX territory
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:03 am

cledaybuck wrote:
enilria wrote:
BA wrote:

The difference with LGB is you have SNA not too far and even LAX, so that's two airports in close proximity it has to compete with.

I'd also argue that LAX's improvements have caused LGB to be a bit less appealing than when LAX was a much worse mess than it currently is.

Paine is 30 miles from SEA. LGB is 20 miles from SNA, but SNA is much smaller than SEA in terms of non-stop options and Los Angeles traffic is the worst in the U.S.

Even worse, AS is mainly competing with themselves down at SEA. PAE is going to have to be a distinct market that will support slightly higher fares than SEA for this to work (kind of like SNA). I think it is still TBD whether PAE more like LGB or SNA.


PAE caters to more of the locals/northern regional folks (and their relatives), unlike SEA. Yes...there are tourists and perhaps even connections to GEG (and later BOI). I don't think AS is really competing with themselves at PAE...but more supplementing it.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:02 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
enilria wrote:
Paine is 30 miles from SEA. LGB is 20 miles from SNA, but SNA is much smaller than SEA in terms of non-stop options and Los Angeles traffic is the worst in the U.S.

Even worse, AS is mainly competing with themselves down at SEA. PAE is going to have to be a distinct market that will support slightly higher fares than SEA for this to work (kind of like SNA). I think it is still TBD whether PAE more like LGB or SNA.


PAE caters to more of the locals/northern regional folks (and their relatives), unlike SEA. Yes...there are tourists and perhaps even connections to GEG (and later BOI). I don't think AS is really competing with themselves at PAE...but more supplementing it.

Which airport do you think all those people used before PAE had service? PAE absolutely competes with SEA.
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:57 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
You COMPLETELY missed what I was trying to tell you.

The only reason that that applies, is because this happened NOW than later. Had it occurred a few years down the road, far larger (if not nearly total) percent of their fleet would be exposed, simply due to deliveries and replacement.

Did I? It seems you just cut out this part of what I said...
enilria wrote:
It seems like what you are really arguing is that they should have smaller fleets of each aircraft type. That sounds nice on paper, but is massively expensive in terms of crew and maintenance. Economies of scale are very valid in this industry. I don't think there is really a strategy that didn't require 20-20 hindsight that would have prevented this for WN. Boeing, on the other hand could have done a lot of things differently. I am fine to criticize WN if they do something wrong (and they certainly do with some frequency), but there is nothing to criticize them on the MAX. It's Boeing that deserves the criticism.


LAX772LR wrote:
Had it occurred a few years down the road, far larger (if not nearly total) percent of their fleet

They currently have 700 non-MAX aircraft and their MAX orderbook was ~300 A/C. Not really a "total percent of their fleet". Perhaps 40%. Again, it is not unusual at all for an airline to have 40% of their fleet in one type family.
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:05 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Even worse, AS is mainly competing with themselves down at SEA. PAE is going to have to be a distinct market that will support slightly higher fares than SEA for this to work (kind of like SNA). I think it is still TBD whether PAE more like LGB or SNA.


PAE caters to more of the locals/northern regional folks (and their relatives), unlike SEA. Yes...there are tourists and perhaps even connections to GEG (and later BOI). I don't think AS is really competing with themselves at PAE...but more supplementing it.

Which airport do you think all those people used before PAE had service? PAE absolutely competes with SEA.

That is the fallacy of the arguments these people are making. IMHO, AS jumped on PAE only because they didn't want another airline to weaken their presence in SEA. Alaska basically said the same thing verbatim in the media when Boeing Field was in play. Now that AS has succeeded and "owns" PAE except for a handful of flights the question is what to do with it. My guess is that it isn't very successful financially, not unlike LGB for B6. If you shrink then somebody else gets it. So you are stuck with it. If history serves and it does not graduate to better financial performance in a few years, they will probably find a prop airline to fly a bunch of local routes with tiny airplanes just to lock it down. Regardless, I think for it to succeed it needed competition and probably low fares to jumpstart it. If Allegiant or NK or F9 had come in there I think it would have a much better chance of long term success just because those low fares would have raised the airport as an option in people's minds. At fares probably equal or higher than SEA fewer people will try it out.
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:36 pm

Amazing to see the DL domestic wide body adds, it's been a while since scheduled 767/A330s were on ATL-SLC three times a day, plus ten total flights! Will be amazing to see how DL comes out of Q1 with a full fleet, no MAX issues and operational excellence against its peers. How are AA and UA using their China assets at this time?
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:02 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Even worse, AS is mainly competing with themselves down at SEA. PAE is going to have to be a distinct market that will support slightly higher fares than SEA for this to work (kind of like SNA). I think it is still TBD whether PAE more like LGB or SNA.


PAE caters to more of the locals/northern regional folks (and their relatives), unlike SEA. Yes...there are tourists and perhaps even connections to GEG (and later BOI). I don't think AS is really competing with themselves at PAE...but more supplementing it.

Which airport do you think all those people used before PAE had service? PAE absolutely competes with SEA.


Let me ask you this. Is Alaska's LF to the same destinations as PAE, i.e. LAX, SFO, SNA, etc. suffering (or at least) lower through SEA since PAE came online? If that question is "yes", then I would agree. If it is not the case, then I think the PAE flights supplement the SEA flights.
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:07 pm

enilria wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:

PAE caters to more of the locals/northern regional folks (and their relatives), unlike SEA. Yes...there are tourists and perhaps even connections to GEG (and later BOI). I don't think AS is really competing with themselves at PAE...but more supplementing it.

Which airport do you think all those people used before PAE had service? PAE absolutely competes with SEA.

That is the fallacy of the arguments these people are making. IMHO, AS jumped on PAE only because they didn't want another airline to weaken their presence in SEA. Alaska basically said the same thing verbatim in the media when Boeing Field was in play. Now that AS has succeeded and "owns" PAE except for a handful of flights the question is what to do with it. My guess is that it isn't very successful financially, not unlike LGB for B6. If you shrink then somebody else gets it. So you are stuck with it. If history serves and it does not graduate to better financial performance in a few years, they will probably find a prop airline to fly a bunch of local routes with tiny airplanes just to lock it down. Regardless, I think for it to succeed it needed competition and probably low fares to jumpstart it. If Allegiant or NK or F9 had come in there I think it would have a much better chance of long term success just because those low fares would have raised the airport as an option in people's minds. At fares probably equal or higher than SEA fewer people will try it out.


I think it's too early to assess whether PAE is successful for AS (and UA) at this point. It would be interesting to see how PAE evolves over the next few years. I'm curious to see what happens to UA's remaining 2 slots (vacated by the end of SFO service). Or if AS is going to cough up some more cash for another FAA/environmental assessment to add slots.
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:40 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Even worse, AS is mainly competing with themselves down at SEA. PAE is going to have to be a distinct market that will support slightly higher fares than SEA for this to work (kind of like SNA). I think it is still TBD whether PAE more like LGB or SNA.


PAE caters to more of the locals/northern regional folks (and their relatives), unlike SEA. Yes...there are tourists and perhaps even connections to GEG (and later BOI). I don't think AS is really competing with themselves at PAE...but more supplementing it.

Which airport do you think all those people used before PAE had service? PAE absolutely competes with SEA.


Should UA pull out of SJC, because it undermines its fortress hub at SFO? Same could said for many markets. Also, isn’t SEA running at maximum capacity? I’m not so sure PAE is such a bad thing for AS at SEA.
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:18 pm

AirFiero wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:

PAE caters to more of the locals/northern regional folks (and their relatives), unlike SEA. Yes...there are tourists and perhaps even connections to GEG (and later BOI). I don't think AS is really competing with themselves at PAE...but more supplementing it.

Which airport do you think all those people used before PAE had service? PAE absolutely competes with SEA.


Should UA pull out of SJC, because it undermines its fortress hub at SFO? Same could said for many markets. Also, isn’t SEA running at maximum capacity? I’m not so sure PAE is such a bad thing for AS at SEA.
There is a reason UA doesn't serve OAK, MDW, HOU, and JFK (I know this one is debatable whether it was a good idea or not, but the reasoning is the same). Same for AA at MDW and DAL and why DL has always fought a second airport in ATL. Even in hub markets where other airports are served, AA has the lowest marketshare (among the US 3) in FLL and IAD and UA has the lowest at LGA, SJC, and DCA. Alternate airport in a hub city is a tough needle to thread.

wedgetail737 wrote:
I think it's too early to assess whether PAE is successful for AS (and UA) at this point. It would be interesting to see how PAE evolves over the next few years. I'm curious to see what happens to UA's remaining 2 slots (vacated by the end of SFO service). Or if AS is going to cough up some more cash for another FAA/environmental assessment to add slots.

Agreed that it is too early, although initial signs aren't great with UA pulling out of SFO, AS adjusting some markets, and WN leaving before they even started. I believe AS is in it for the long haul, but eventually they are going to have to find enough people willing to pay at least the same if not slightly more than SEA. Time will tell.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:27 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Which airport do you think all those people used before PAE had service? PAE absolutely competes with SEA.


Should UA pull out of SJC, because it undermines its fortress hub at SFO? Same could said for many markets. Also, isn’t SEA running at maximum capacity? I’m not so sure PAE is such a bad thing for AS at SEA.
There is a reason UA doesn't serve OAK, MDW, HOU, and JFK (I know this one is debatable whether it was a good idea or not, but the reasoning is the same). Same for AA at MDW and DAL and why DL has always fought a second airport in ATL. Even in hub markets where other airports are served, AA has the lowest marketshare (among the US 3) in FLL and IAD and UA has the lowest at LGA, SJC, and DCA. Alternate airport in a hub city is a tough needle to thread.



Good points, although I’d argue that each of those markets have their own unique dynamic. For example, ORD isn’t maxed out like SEA. OAK is a mystery, given that UA served it basically forever. I don’t think IAD or IAH are maxed out, either. My argument (or perhaps the real question is) would be that SEA is so full that the only way to expand the market is to open a second airport.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:53 pm

I think Seattle should THANK free enterprise capitalism that has entered into SEA with two awesome airlines having hubs in one city.

Without this free or open market airline COMPETITION, SEAttle residents would NOT, have an overcrowded airport or the option and benefits of a secondary airport at Paine Field.

This competition has been excellent for noise, secondary infrastructure urban development and roadway congestion, all while adding additional hydrocarbons to the lessening pristine environment. The development of the climatic heat island is also an important benefit to quality of life and warming of the region. Thank you DELTA for bringing CHANGE to Seattle and cheap fares to Atlanta , SLC, Detroit, and MSP.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 2/16/2020:China-geddon;AD Suspends BEL-FLL;NK Adds SEA-BUR,Cuts SEA-DFW;Hopskotch Air?;Deep WN MAX Cuts

Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:46 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
enilria wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Which airport do you think all those people used before PAE had service? PAE absolutely competes with SEA.

That is the fallacy of the arguments these people are making. IMHO, AS jumped on PAE only because they didn't want another airline to weaken their presence in SEA. Alaska basically said the same thing verbatim in the media when Boeing Field was in play. Now that AS has succeeded and "owns" PAE except for a handful of flights the question is what to do with it. My guess is that it isn't very successful financially, not unlike LGB for B6. If you shrink then somebody else gets it. So you are stuck with it. If history serves and it does not graduate to better financial performance in a few years, they will probably find a prop airline to fly a bunch of local routes with tiny airplanes just to lock it down. Regardless, I think for it to succeed it needed competition and probably low fares to jumpstart it. If Allegiant or NK or F9 had come in there I think it would have a much better chance of long term success just because those low fares would have raised the airport as an option in people's minds. At fares probably equal or higher than SEA fewer people will try it out.


I think it's too early to assess whether PAE is successful for AS (and UA) at this point. It would be interesting to see how PAE evolves over the next few years. I'm curious to see what happens to UA's remaining 2 slots (vacated by the end of SFO service). Or if AS is going to cough up some more cash for another FAA/environmental assessment to add slots.

I definitely do not expect them to add slots.

Looking at their filed data, only PAE-SNA/LAX aren't terrible. I'm not talking LFs here, I'm talking about onboard revenue comparable to other routs of similar length with the same equipment in their network. Of course, early days but I still say it will be hard to get new passengers to try PAE without low fare stimulation.

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