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Nicknuzzii
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Will DY return to SWF?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:01 pm

Some claim that DY was actually quite successful from SWF but I can not confirm this. In a world post the Max grounding is a return to SWF likely?
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:14 pm

If they're still around by then, I can definitely see them trying it again. It was indeed successful, they even went from 1x daily to 2x daily from Dublin. Only when the MAX was grounded they didn't have any suitable aircraft anymore for this route. They tried for a while with the 787, but that was too big. Eventually they pulled out due to lack of suitable aircraft.

They do however need more feed in order to increase the load factors on this route, the local Dublin market isn't big enough. But with the MAX available again, I can see that being arranged.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:24 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Some claim that DY was actually quite successful from SWF but I can not confirm this. In a world post the Max grounding is a return to SWF likely?


PatrickZ80 wrote:
If they're still around by then, I can definitely see them trying it again. It was indeed successful, they even went from 1x daily to 2x daily from Dublin. Only when the MAX was grounded they didn't have any suitable aircraft anymore for this route. They tried for a while with the 787, but that was too big. Eventually they pulled out due to lack of suitable aircraft.

They do however need more feed in order to increase the load factors on this route, the local Dublin market isn't big enough. But with the MAX available again, I can see that being arranged.


One factor being overlooked here is the profitability of the airline as a whole. Since the MAX grounding they appear to have culled a number of routes which I can only assume wasn't profitable and any new routes haven't resembled the "throw a dart onto the map" approach.

Another issue (and Norwegian won't be alone with this one) is whether the travelling public have confidence in the MAX to book on a flight that's scheduled for it. If people are put off flying the MAX and it impacts forward bookings, the route hasn't a chance of being successful. In a few weeks, it will have been one whole year since the worldwide fleet was grounded.

If they do return to SWF in some capacity, I can't see routes to places such as BGO, BFS and EDI returning. That said, I do wonder how long they would have stayed at SWF had it not been for the MAX grounding.
 
Insertnamehere
Posts: 317
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:50 pm

As much as the SWF flight was interesting. I don't see the point. They have a very good market at JFK and while it caters a lot more to those in upstate why not go to a larger city in upstate such as Albany or Rochester.

If DY wants a good alternative to JFK for international flights to NYC why not go for EWR which is not slot restricted and is much closer to NYC.

In short, I think it was over-expansion and really doesn't make much sense diversifying their NYC market when they have a good niche in JFK.
 
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bluefltspecial
Posts: 560
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:05 pm

Insertnamehere wrote:
As much as the SWF flight was interesting. I don't see the point. They have a very good market at JFK and while it caters a lot more to those in upstate why not go to a larger city in upstate such as Albany or Rochester.

If DY wants a good alternative to JFK for international flights to NYC why not go for EWR which is not slot restricted and is much closer to NYC.

In short, I think it was over-expansion and really doesn't make much sense diversifying their NYC market when they have a good niche in JFK.


Last I heard, considering how high the facility charge per pax is at EWR, I don't think that's a cheaper or "good" alternative for SWF or JFK. Norwegian from what I understand only flew into EWR because slots were not available at JFK. With the removal of CPH/ARN those slots were used for BCN/FCO allowing them to consolidate operations in JFK and reduce costs.
Save a horse, ride a Fly-boy....
 
Cointrin330
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:39 pm

They have operational scale at JFK and that likely helps to keep costs in check. If the MAX ever flies again (my belief is that it will not), DY will need to deploy them somewhere, but I am not sure it will be SWF or any East Coast airport for that matter.
 
Rossiya747
Posts: 322
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:46 pm

yes please. I got 120$ round-trip tickets to DUB and EDI so I want them back
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:00 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
They have operational scale at JFK and that likely helps to keep costs in check. If the MAX ever flies again (my belief is that it will not), DY will need to deploy them somewhere, but I am not sure it will be SWF or any East Coast airport for that matter.


If the SWF flights don't return and if/when the MAX flies again, I can see them being deployed within Europe or on the various routes they operate from Scandinavia to DXB.
 
F27500
Posts: 831
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:42 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Some claim that DY was actually quite successful from SWF but I can not confirm this. In a world post the Max grounding is a return to SWF likely?


PatrickZ80 wrote:
If they're still around by then, I can definitely see them trying it again. It was indeed successful, they even went from 1x daily to 2x daily from Dublin. Only when the MAX was grounded they didn't have any suitable aircraft anymore for this route. They tried for a while with the 787, but that was too big. Eventually they pulled out due to lack of suitable aircraft.

They do however need more feed in order to increase the load factors on this route, the local Dublin market isn't big enough. But with the MAX available again, I can see that being arranged.


One factor being overlooked here is the profitability of the airline as a whole. Since the MAX grounding they appear to have culled a number of routes which I can only assume wasn't profitable and any new routes haven't resembled the "throw a dart onto the map" approach.

Another issue (and Norwegian won't be alone with this one) is whether the travelling public have confidence in the MAX to book on a flight that's scheduled for it. If people are put off flying the MAX and it impacts forward bookings, the route hasn't a chance of being successful. In a few weeks, it will have been one whole year since the worldwide fleet was grounded.

If they do return to SWF in some capacity, I can't see routes to places such as BGO, BFS and EDI returning. That said, I do wonder how long they would have stayed at SWF had it not been for the MAX grounding.


The DC-10 grounding back in the 70s was no different from this one. All the hysteria and "i'd never set foot on a DC-10" BS went right out the window quickly. Pax will always choose the lowest fare and if its on a MAX, they won't even think twice after this whole thing blows over.

I still say Boeing just needs to simply rename this plane once it gets approval to fly again. Call it something else. Anything but MAX. The travelling public is not very savvy when it comes to planes anyway .. it should be a very easy camouflage for airlines and Boeing to make.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8068
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:12 pm

F27500 wrote:
The DC-10 grounding back in the 70s was no different from this one. All the hysteria and "i'd never set foot on a DC-10" BS went right out the window quickly. Pax will always choose the lowest fare and if its on a MAX, they won't even think twice after this whole thing blows over.


It was the same thing with United's 747 cargo door failure, and Alaska's MD-80 jack screw incident. U.S. passenger carriers were reliably and safely operating those types or derivatives 25 years later; no passengers cared.

If you look at Norwegian's target market (more heavily European POS), SWF is convenient to a very small fraction of prospective travelers. Lines may be shorter but, face it, they want to go to NYC, not 70 miles away to New Windsor, NY, and lousy public transit options. You can bribe people to use a less-convenient airport with cheaper fares (see Orlando-Sanford) but that's not always the way to make money. DY might do just fine with secondary/tertiary Europe via MAX into JFK.
 
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bluefltspecial
Posts: 560
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:28 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
F27500 wrote:
The DC-10 grounding back in the 70s was no different from this one. All the hysteria and "i'd never set foot on a DC-10" BS went right out the window quickly. Pax will always choose the lowest fare and if its on a MAX, they won't even think twice after this whole thing blows over.


It was the same thing with United's 747 cargo door failure, and Alaska's MD-80 jack screw incident. U.S. passenger carriers were reliably and safely operating those types or derivatives 25 years later; no passengers cared.

If you look at Norwegian's target market (more heavily European POS), SWF is convenient to a very small fraction of prospective travelers. Lines may be shorter but, face it, they want to go to NYC, not 70 miles away to New Windsor, NY, and lousy public transit options. You can bribe people to use a less-convenient airport with cheaper fares (see Orlando-Sanford) but that's not always the way to make money. DY might do just fine with secondary/tertiary Europe via MAX into JFK.


I completely agree with you.
In terms of JFK and secondary markets, it would be an easy win. The problem, however, is that Terminal 1 is maxed out and overcapacity, the only gate space available is before noon which is not particularly great for secondary euro flying. Even if they can get landing slots, they can't always get gate slots, and when they can get gate slots, they can't always get matching landing slots. Norwegian needs to find another home at JFK, if the Port Authority really wants more traffic, they should try and find a way to shuffle some airlines around...
Save a horse, ride a Fly-boy....
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2001
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:42 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
They have operational scale at JFK and that likely helps to keep costs in check. If the MAX ever flies again (my belief is that it will not), DY will need to deploy them somewhere, but I am not sure it will be SWF or any East Coast airport for that matter.


If the SWF flights don't return and if/when the MAX flies again, I can see them being deployed within Europe or on the various routes they operate from Scandinavia to DXB.


That's what I was thinking as well.
 
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BWIAirport
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:56 pm

They were also flying 737-800s across the ocean, could those do DUB-SWF?
SWA, UAL, DAL, AWE, ASA, TRS, DLH, CLH, AFR, BAW, EIN, AAL | E190 DC94 CRJ2 B712 B733 B737 B738 B739 B744 B752 B753 B762 B77W A319 A320 A20N A321 A333 A343 A388 MD88
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 3480
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:26 am

Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:11 pm

Insertnamehere wrote:
As much as the SWF flight was interesting. I don't see the point. They have a very good market at JFK and while it caters a lot more to those in upstate why not go to a larger city in upstate such as Albany or Rochester.

If DY wants a good alternative to JFK for international flights to NYC why not go for EWR which is not slot restricted and is much closer to NYC.

In short, I think it was over-expansion and really doesn't make much sense diversifying their NYC market when they have a good niche in JFK.

Just because EWR isn’t “slot controlled” doesn’t mean you can just go in. The FAA still has to approve your schedule. It’s a de facto slot control.

Not to mention, does EWR even have room for additional flights during the time period DY would want to fly? From what I understand the terminals are jam packed during the European launch
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:11 pm

I actually think Norwegian would return. They never would have left except for the max issues. No airline has had worse luck from the 787 engine issues to the max Norwegian has had horrible luck on plane issues totally out of their control.

The bus from Manhattan worked really well and routes like Dublin had lots of frequent millennials and fans. The bus was super convenient and a guaranteed connection. Way better than mass transit especially the subway. The bus was super easy and convenient minus the hike but honestly traffic to JFK can be just as long on some days with that traffic. The Thruway was not bad traffic when the buses were on it.

I think it really depends mostly on how JFK goes here for them. Adding a new station back isn't ideal if JFK is working but with an incentive it might make sense to add if the MAX comes back and people will fly on it.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:13 pm

bluefltspecial wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
F27500 wrote:
The DC-10 grounding back in the 70s was no different from this one. All the hysteria and "i'd never set foot on a DC-10" BS went right out the window quickly. Pax will always choose the lowest fare and if its on a MAX, they won't even think twice after this whole thing blows over.


It was the same thing with United's 747 cargo door failure, and Alaska's MD-80 jack screw incident. U.S. passenger carriers were reliably and safely operating those types or derivatives 25 years later; no passengers cared.

If you look at Norwegian's target market (more heavily European POS), SWF is convenient to a very small fraction of prospective travelers. Lines may be shorter but, face it, they want to go to NYC, not 70 miles away to New Windsor, NY, and lousy public transit options. You can bribe people to use a less-convenient airport with cheaper fares (see Orlando-Sanford) but that's not always the way to make money. DY might do just fine with secondary/tertiary Europe via MAX into JFK.


I completely agree with you.
In terms of JFK and secondary markets, it would be an easy win. The problem, however, is that Terminal 1 is maxed out and overcapacity, the only gate space available is before noon which is not particularly great for secondary euro flying. Even if they can get landing slots, they can't always get gate slots, and when they can get gate slots, they can't always get matching landing slots. Norwegian needs to find another home at JFK, if the Port Authority really wants more traffic, they should try and find a way to shuffle some airlines around...


Gate 1 would be available after about 5:30 though...Gates 1 and 3 can’t handle anything larger than a 767.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:25 pm

Rossiya747 wrote:
yes please. I got 120$ round-trip tickets to DUB and EDI so I want them back



This is why they can't restart the route. All this unprofitable long haul flying is what is taking them to bankruptcy as is.

With B6 starting trans-Atlantic next year, I totally see them jumping on the secondary airports that they already fly to , with supplemental service to the British Isles.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:52 am

BWIAirport wrote:
They were also flying 737-800s across the ocean, could those do DUB-SWF?


I'm sure I read there were several rows of seats blocked off going westbound when these services were launched with 737-800's pending MAX deliveries...or at least they were from EDI. That's before we factor in the extra fuel an NG would consume over a MAX which no doubt squeezes/wipes out profit margins margins on what's supposed to be a low-cost service. It's little wonder why regular TATL flights that utilised A320ceo Family/737NG aircraft have mostly been confined to routes between Atlantic Canada and UK/Ireland.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
The bus from Manhattan worked really well and routes like Dublin had lots of frequent millennials and fans. The bus was super convenient and a guaranteed connection. Way better than mass transit especially the subway. The bus was super easy and convenient minus the hike but honestly traffic to JFK can be just as long on some days with that traffic.


I suppose I fall into the "millennial" category, but your first statement about it being popular with the age group begs the question whether they would have travelled at all if that route didn't exist or if the fares were more in line with the cheapest economy fares available to/from JFK/EWR with the likes of BA, Aer Lingus etc?

As for traffic, I have no experience of Manhattan-SWF but the two times I've done taxis between JFK and Manhattan it's usually taken 45 minutes to go from JFK to Manhattan and around 90 minutes or so from Manhattan to JFK. The first time the driver told me of a tale how he picked somebody up in the same area at the same time of day and it took 6 hours due to an accident, and needless to say his passenger missed his flight, so I left plenty of time the second time round.
 
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bluefltspecial
Posts: 560
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:27 pm

Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:16 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
bluefltspecial wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

It was the same thing with United's 747 cargo door failure, and Alaska's MD-80 jack screw incident. U.S. passenger carriers were reliably and safely operating those types or derivatives 25 years later; no passengers cared.

If you look at Norwegian's target market (more heavily European POS), SWF is convenient to a very small fraction of prospective travelers. Lines may be shorter but, face it, they want to go to NYC, not 70 miles away to New Windsor, NY, and lousy public transit options. You can bribe people to use a less-convenient airport with cheaper fares (see Orlando-Sanford) but that's not always the way to make money. DY might do just fine with secondary/tertiary Europe via MAX into JFK.


I completely agree with you.
In terms of JFK and secondary markets, it would be an easy win. The problem, however, is that Terminal 1 is maxed out and overcapacity, the only gate space available is before noon which is not particularly great for secondary euro flying. Even if they can get landing slots, they can't always get gate slots, and when they can get gate slots, they can't always get matching landing slots. Norwegian needs to find another home at JFK, if the Port Authority really wants more traffic, they should try and find a way to shuffle some airlines around...


Gate 1 would be available after about 5:30 though...Gates 1 and 3 can’t handle anything larger than a 767.


Incorrect, while narrowbodies are normally placed on gate 1, Gate 3 can handle 787s and 777s, for example, Aeroflot is scheduled on Gate 3 tonight.
Save a horse, ride a Fly-boy....
 
Rossiya747
Posts: 322
Joined: Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:56 am

Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Sat Feb 22, 2020 7:51 pm

BWIAirport wrote:
They were also flying 737-800s across the ocean, could those do DUB-SWF?


Yes, they used it on SWF-BGO at one point
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3796
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:53 pm

SWF is not coming back. No one wants to go to SWF, it was a stupid idea from DY's old network planning/management team that did not know WTF they were doing. The lower costs at SWF were never enough to offset the lower revenue generated by Europe-SWF flights. It is dead.
 
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bluefltspecial
Posts: 560
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:27 pm

Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:23 am

It was my understanding too that Norwegian received a number of economic incentives that helped offset costs at SWF, likely things like landing fees waived etc, I don't have time to research it but I'm sure that information is available somewhere on the internet.
Save a horse, ride a Fly-boy....
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3796
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: Will DY return to SWF?

Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:24 pm

bluefltspecial wrote:
It was my understanding too that Norwegian received a number of economic incentives that helped offset costs at SWF, likely things like landing fees waived etc, I don't have time to research it but I'm sure that information is available somewhere on the internet.


They did but those can only be offered for a period of up to two years. After that, all carriers must be treated equally.

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