MIflyer12
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What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:33 pm

From the Annual Report last week:

NOTE 11. COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES
Aircraft Purchase Commitments
Our future aircraft purchase commitments totaled approximately $13.7 billion at December 31, 2019: (in millions) Total

2020 $ 2,980

2021 3,740

2022 3,390

2023 1,640

2024 500

Thereafter 1,440

Total $ 13,690


Unless the economy just TANKS they will order more aircraft to keep capital spending stable and continue fleet renewal and expansion. Free cash flow has been very good. There's $$ even after supplemental pension funding (they pumped in an early $1 Billion in 2019 but it's still rather underfunded) and shareholder buybacks and dividends.

After the MD-88s, the A320s are the oldest subtype in the fleet, on average. Yes, older than the MD-90s, 763, or 757-200s. They're dumping the 88/90s quickly. The A320s won't fly forever, and, IMHO, they'll need more midsize narrowbodies -- not just the stream of 321ceo/neo on order. There's quite a gap in seat count between the A220-300 and a 321Neo.

Or, do you think they're really going to be more of a long-haul carrier and find something to do with 10 new A350s from which they took the purchase obligation of LATAM? That is still cited as an intention; not sure it's listed in the purchase commitments.
 
ethernal
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:53 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
After the MD-88s, the A320s are the oldest subtype in the fleet, on average. Yes, older than the MD-90s, 763, or 757-200s. They're dumping the 88/90s quickly. The A320s won't fly forever, and, IMHO, they'll need more midsize narrowbodies -- not just the stream of 321ceo/neo on order. There's quite a gap in seat count between the A220-300 and a 321Neo.



I agree that there is a significant seat gap and that Delta will eventually need to order some sort of mid-sized plane. That said, I believe that Delta will try to minimize this size to the extent possible... Delta loves the CASM they get on the largest narrowbodies and the A223 CASM is pretty good in its own right from a fuel burn perspective (if not crew/gate perspective). The extra passenger capacity on the A321 is "almost free" so to speak, especially in a lower-density configuration (meaning no extra FA is needed due to 201+ passengers).

My guess is that they will have to do a 50-70 aircraft order of either the 737-MAX8, A320neo, or (probably their ideal state) a hypothetical A225. My guess it's whoever gives them the best deal. If the A225 happens at all, I bet Delta will be a launch customer.
 
ehaase
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:16 pm

I think around 2022 and 2023 Delta will exercise its options for an additional 100 321neo's to start replacing 738's and 320's late in the decade. I think it may order more 339's also around 2022 and 2023 to replace some of the newer 763's and 764's late in the decade also, unless Boeing does develop a smaller widebody aircraft.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:24 pm

Contrary to others, I have always felt the MAX 8 has a place in the DL fleet.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:30 pm

While some A320s will be older, I think the remaining domestic 757s have to be the first priority for narrowbody replacement. They have fewer remaining cycles and their economics are increasingly difficult. But I think the first tranche of A321neos already on order should deal with most of them.

The next narrowbody order will be about any remaining domestic 757s, the oldest A320s, and possibly some A319s. I wouldn't expect to see any 738s leave the fleet until about the end of the decade. I think Delta will continue to have enough smaller airframes to cover demand until then, and so I think the next order will be another tranche of A321neos.

In the widebody space, we already know what is coming, and any new orders will be for delivery later in the decade (which is why I wouldn't expect them to be placed this year).
 
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keesje
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:38 pm

Probably expand existing orders. I wouldn't rule out collecting / overhauling used 737-800/900ER's to top up those fleets. Like NWA & Delta did in the past.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:57 pm

keesje wrote:
Probably expand existing orders. I wouldn't rule out collecting / overhauling used 737-800/900ER's to top up those fleets. Like NWA & Delta did in the past.


I don’t agree with the opinion that they will just expand existing orders. Delta has nothing on order with Boeing. I expect that will eventually change
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:08 pm

A220s, MAX-8s and A321s
@DadCelo
 
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keesje
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:39 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Probably expand existing orders. I wouldn't rule out collecting / overhauling used 737-800/900ER's to top up those fleets. Like NWA & Delta did in the past.


I don’t agree with the opinion that they will just expand existing orders. Delta has nothing on order with Boeing. I expect that will eventually change


787-10 seems a very suitable aircraft for TATL, A35X for Pacific growth.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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acavpics
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:51 pm

I just don't see the 737 max having any place in DL's fleet. The a320neo family seems to be perfect for that market. Not to mention that it drastically simplifies the fleet.
 
micstatic
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:55 pm

I fly delta often. Not a 737 fan at all. So hope that aircraft won’t be ordered.
S340,DH8,AT7,CR2/7,E135/45/170/190,319,320,717,732,733,734,735,737,738,744,752,762,763,764,772,M80,M90
 
jonair8
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:39 pm

Delta is really pushing Boeing to create the NMA. They have a sizable 757 fleet that will be hanging on for the rest of the decade because they want something more suitable to replace them with than the 737-9 or 737-10 or the A321neo, something that matches the 757 in both capacity and performance without the weight restriction. Once the NMA is introduced, Delta will have a much clearer plan for narrow body fleet renewal. As far as A320s are concerned, they do not have a set plan to retire yet. If anything, they will most likely be replaced with the NMA or some of the later 321neo deliveries. Delta could even have 7M8/7M9 orders wrapped in to a NMA order a few years from now to address some of the current 738s and 320s retirement.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:54 pm

acavpics wrote:
I just don't see the 737 max having any place in DL's fleet. The a320neo family seems to be perfect for that market. Not to mention that it drastically simplifies the fleet.


Agreed. If the A220-500 is offered then they could get eventually get the fleet down to four types:

A220
A321
A330
A350

With a -500 varient the A220 can replace 717, MD-88/90, A319, A320, and 737-700/800. A321 replaces 757 and eventually 739.
 
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keesje
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:56 pm

The geriatic DL 757 fleet..

Delta ordered 230 A321 so far.

AA and United ordered A321XLR, as did Jetblue, Spirit and Frontier.

Delta ? .. :scratchchin:
Last edited by keesje on Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:02 am, edited 3 times in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ethernal
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:00 am

jonair8 wrote:
Delta is really pushing Boeing to create the NMA. They have a sizable 757 fleet that will be hanging on for the rest of the decade because they want something more suitable to replace them with than the 737-9 or 737-10 or the A321neo, something that matches the 757 in both capacity and performance without the weight restriction. Once the NMA is introduced, Delta will have a much clearer plan for narrow body fleet renewal. As far as A320s are concerned, they do not have a set plan to retire yet. If anything, they will most likely be replaced with the NMA or some of the later 321neo deliveries. Delta could even have 7M8/7M9 orders wrapped in to a NMA order a few years from now to address some of the current 738s and 320s retirement.


Delta's narrowbody gap has nothing to do with the NMA. The NMA is more a fix to the 767 market than domestic narrowbody ops. The gap highlighted by the original poster is "what goes in the 131-179 seat range" because they have nothing on order to cover that. The A321neo covers 98% of the old 757 operations (including the international variant if we include the LR/XLR) with the only edge cases some short/high and hot runways that can be probably be covered "well enough" by a payload restricted A321neo.

At the start of last year, Delta had a ton of very old aircraft in that 131-179 range: nearly 100 30 year-old MD80s with 149 seats all to be retired by next year, 40 MD90s with 158 seats likely to all be retired by 2024, 60 A320s with 160 seats with an average age of 25, and the "youngest" of the bunch, about 80 738s with an average age of 19 years. Already, those 140 MD88/90s have dwindled down to only 75, and most of the A320s will probably age out by 2025. The 738 can go for another 10 years if needed, but that is 75 jets taking the spot of what used to be 250. This is the "hole" in Delta's fleet being talked about. The 757 segment is well covered.
 
TObound
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:33 am

I may be the odd opinion here. I don't think every gap has to be filled. The marginal cost off going from a 320 to 321 makes it pointless to operate the 321. It's even worse if looking at adding another newish type like the Max.

The only way I see the gap getting filled is with a 225 they can keep under 150 seats in their config. Anything else and they'll split that capacity gap between 321Ns and 223s.

I expect DL will be flying at least 200 A220s by the end of the decade.
 
ethernal
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:15 am

TObound wrote:
I may be the odd opinion here. I don't think every gap has to be filled. The marginal cost off going from a 320 to 321 makes it pointless to operate the 321. It's even worse if looking at adding another newish type like the Max.

The only way I see the gap getting filled is with a 225 they can keep under 150 seats in their config. Anything else and they'll split that capacity gap between 321Ns and 223s.

I expect DL will be flying at least 200 A220s by the end of the decade.


This is my working hypothesis as well, but it is dependent upon the A225 actually happening (and being the right size for a 149 seater). It is also dependent on Delta being completely satisfied with the A220 performance and reliability.
 
GatorClark
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:18 am

ikolkyo wrote:
Contrary to others, I have always felt the MAX 8 has a place in the DL fleet.


Please God no.. I, like a lot of other baggage handlers at DL, HATE working the 737's because of the low bin clearance. If they retired all their 737's and replaced them with the A320 & A220 family I wouldn't shed even a single tear.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:30 am

ethernal wrote:
The gap highlighted by the original poster is "what goes in the 131-179 seat range" because they have nothing on order to cover that. The A321neo covers 98% of the old 757 operations (including the international variant if we include the LR/XLR) with the only edge cases some short/high and hot runways that can be probably be covered "well enough" by a payload restricted A321neo.

At the start of last year, Delta had a ton of very old aircraft in that 131-179 range: nearly 100 30 year-old MD80s with 149 seats all to be retired by next year, 40 MD90s with 158 seats likely to all be retired by 2024, 60 A320s with 160 seats with an average age of 25, and the "youngest" of the bunch, about 80 738s with an average age of 19 years.


Yes, you get my question. The ann rep says repeatedly that the MD-90s are gone by end 2022. They took a charge of $79 million to accelerate depreciation of the MD-90s.

While I appreciate the idea that incremental costs of operation of 321neo vs. 320neo are modest, they aren't zero. Seventy-seven aging 738s don't do much to fill the midsize gap in a mainline fleet of ~900 aircraft beyond 2025. I don't want DL just to copy AA fleet decisions but I observe that AA has 304 738 (and still ~50 A320s and a bunch of MAX 8s on top of that).

I'm not talking about what they're going to order/option IN 2023 - what are they going to receive in 2023. NMA and A220-500s surely are not part of that.
 
jrkmsp
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:44 am

I’d say it’s highly likely the plan was a Max8 order that has been put on hold until Boeing gets its act together. Question remains if there are any slots to be had in that timeframe.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:33 am

Looking over many of their recent IR presentations, they make it clear that they will continue upgaging even when the NEO's enter service next year.

Is it possible the first batch NEO's are not only replacing the oldest 752's, but also the Grunge-era A320's?
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:54 am

MD88 - ~45 retired Q4 2020 or early 2021 (dependent on 321NEO deliveries and also MAX situation); DL is in a position to get every last cycle out of the MD88s that they can at this point
MD90 - ~30 gone by end of 2022

A320 - likely the oldest batch to start retiring in 2023/2024, the youngest will likely go on to 2028 - 2030+ commonality with 319/321 and massive global parts/technical support ensures the longevity of the fleet
A319 - these are likely to not start to retire until 2028-2030+; oldest from 1999; commonality with 320/321 and massive global parts/technical support ensures the longevity of the fleet
717 - likely to start phase out en-mass between 2027-2030; some may go earlier as part-outs
757 - probably going to start to see this fleet slowly phase-out starting in 2024/2025 through 2030. The 75Ds will slowly phase out as they hit maintenance checks/cycle limits, 75H, 75S, 753s to hang on a bit longer
738 - these are likely good out until about 2027-2030 timeframe;
CR2 - while these are all either with Pinnacle or Skywest, a whole bunch of CR2s are likely to reach the end of their operational life between 2023-2027; likely to from ~125 now to about ~50-60 left, Likely to be relegated to at-risk and EAS stuff only by then. The pro-rate stuff will likely all be upgauged to CR9s, with a portion of stuff flown with CR9s today going to 717 / A220

Short answer:
2020-2022 is MD88 & MD90
2023-2027 is older A320, 75D, (and a bunch of CR2s falling out of DCI fleet)
2027-2032 is 717, A319, younger A320, 738
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:57 am

In the next ten years, I see DL ordering almost exclusively airbus aircraft for its narrow body fleet, as the MAX8 holds no strategic place in the DL fleet. There is no gap between the size of the A319 and the A220-300, the 737NGs are not in need of replacement for at least the next ten years (oldest is a ‘98, still 12 years younger than the oldest MD-88), and DL would never replace an A320 with a MAX. The only aircraft that might be in need of replacement by 2024 is the older 757s, which could be replaced by an addition of a small number of A321NEOs to the current order, rather than ordering a small number of MAXes for a stand-alone fleet. Thus, I see DL ordering additional A220 and A320s for the narrow-body fleet, and A350s and another type for their wide body fleet.
So... when will the Northwest DC-9s be retired?
 
reltney
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:13 am

jonair8 wrote:
Delta is really pushing Boeing to create the NMA. They have a sizable 757 fleet that will be hanging on for the rest of the decade because they want something more suitable to replace them with than the 737-9 or 737-10 or the A321neo, something that matches the 757 in both capacity and performance without the weight restriction. Once the NMA is introduced, Delta will have a much clearer plan for narrow body fleet renewal. As far as A320s are concerned, they do not have a set plan to retire yet. If anything, they will most likely be replaced with the NMA or some of the later 321neo deliveries. Delta could even have 7M8/7M9 orders wrapped in to a NMA order a few years from now to address some of the current 738s and 320s retirement.



Right on. It’s almost like you were in the briefing. As stated by Delta, nothing in production comes close to the 757-200 and 300. The 321 neoLRwhatever is the stopgap but can’t quite do the job but is the closest out there. They were banking on the 797 but that’s not working out presently either. Naysayers say what you want but I saw their lips move in the briefing. Can you say that....... it was left with.....we have to be flexible and are....the 757 will stay at present numbers or greater if we can find them thru 2026 as that was the replacement aircraft date of entry into service.

I am waiting with popcorn....

Cheers
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OUTLAW KNIVES.

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DiamondFlyer
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:14 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
MD88 - ~45 retired Q4 2020 or early 2021 (dependent on 321NEO deliveries and also MAX situation); DL is in a position to get every last cycle out of the MD88s that they can at this point
MD90 - ~30 gone by end of 2022

A320 - likely the oldest batch to start retiring in 2023/2024, the youngest will likely go on to 2028 - 2030+ commonality with 319/321 and massive global parts/technical support ensures the longevity of the fleet
A319 - these are likely to not start to retire until 2028-2030+; oldest from 1999; commonality with 320/321 and massive global parts/technical support ensures the longevity of the fleet
717 - likely to start phase out en-mass between 2027-2030; some may go earlier as part-outs
757 - probably going to start to see this fleet slowly phase-out starting in 2024/2025 through 2030. The 75Ds will slowly phase out as they hit maintenance checks/cycle limits, 75H, 75S, 753s to hang on a bit longer
738 - these are likely good out until about 2027-2030 timeframe;
CR2 - while these are all either with Pinnacle or Skywest, a whole bunch of CR2s are likely to reach the end of their operational life between 2023-2027; likely to from ~125 now to about ~50-60 left, Likely to be relegated to at-risk and EAS stuff only by then. The pro-rate stuff will likely all be upgauged to CR9s, with a portion of stuff flown with CR9s today going to 717 / A220

Short answer:
2020-2022 is MD88 & MD90
2023-2027 is older A320, 75D, (and a bunch of CR2s falling out of DCI fleet)
2027-2032 is 717, A319, younger A320, 738


Endeavor or Skywest, Pinnacle ceased to be Pinnacle years ago. I don't really think they'll time out as fast as you think they will. Perhaps the OO birds, but a number of the 9E birds in service today are still 2003-2005 deliveries. Couple that with the fact of there are a number of former Pinnacle CR2's sitting in storage, that are low hour, they very well could keep the 200's in service much longer than most people think. Fuel costs and pilot staffing will kill the CR2 long before airframe limits do.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:17 am

Yeah, my bad, after too many years still think of 9E as Pinnacle even though yes its Endeavor. At least I don't call it Express I.
Yes, many of the original Skywest and Comair CR2s are going to time-out, but the original NW Airlink 9E CRJs will solder on as long as possible.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:19 am

reltney wrote:
jonair8 wrote:
Delta is really pushing Boeing to create the NMA. They have a sizable 757 fleet that will be hanging on for the rest of the decade because they want something more suitable to replace them with than the 737-9 or 737-10 or the A321neo, something that matches the 757 in both capacity and performance without the weight restriction. Once the NMA is introduced, Delta will have a much clearer plan for narrow body fleet renewal. As far as A320s are concerned, they do not have a set plan to retire yet. If anything, they will most likely be replaced with the NMA or some of the later 321neo deliveries. Delta could even have 7M8/7M9 orders wrapped in to a NMA order a few years from now to address some of the current 738s and 320s retirement.



Right on. It’s almost like you were in the briefing. As stated by Delta, nothing in production comes close to the 757-200 and 300. The 321 neoLRwhatever is the stopgap but can’t quite do the job but is the closest out there. They were banking on the 797 but that’s not working out presently either. Naysayers say what you want but I saw their lips move in the briefing. Can you say that....... it was left with.....we have to be flexible and are....the 757 will stay at present numbers or greater if we can find them thru 2026 as that was the replacement aircraft date of entry into service.

I am waiting with popcorn....

Cheers



What missions can the 757 do that the A321XLR won’t be able to?
 
ethernal
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:20 am

reltney wrote:
jonair8 wrote:
Delta is really pushing Boeing to create the NMA. They have a sizable 757 fleet that will be hanging on for the rest of the decade because they want something more suitable to replace them with than the 737-9 or 737-10 or the A321neo, something that matches the 757 in both capacity and performance without the weight restriction. Once the NMA is introduced, Delta will have a much clearer plan for narrow body fleet renewal. As far as A320s are concerned, they do not have a set plan to retire yet. If anything, they will most likely be replaced with the NMA or some of the later 321neo deliveries. Delta could even have 7M8/7M9 orders wrapped in to a NMA order a few years from now to address some of the current 738s and 320s retirement.



Right on. It’s almost like you were in the briefing. As stated by Delta, nothing in production comes close to the 757-200 and 300. The 321 neoLRwhatever is the stopgap but can’t quite do the job but is the closest out there. They were banking on the 797 but that’s not working out presently either. Naysayers say what you want but I saw their lips move in the briefing. Can you say that....... it was left with.....we have to be flexible and are....the 757 will stay at present numbers or greater if we can find them thru 2026 as that was the replacement aircraft date of entry into service.

I am waiting with popcorn....

Cheers


As noted above, the NMA has nothing to do with the 757 and the 757 gap is already completely filled with the A321neo.

The 752 gap has already been filled by the A321neo. I'm not sure why anyone thinks that is still an issue. The only exception are maybe 5 routes max in Delta's portfolio that need the short runway capability of the 752 that would likely require material payload restrictions certain times of the year on the A321neo (think routes like SNA-ATL, JAC-ATL). The 753 does not have any unique performance abilities and is economically replaced fully by the A321neo (the 753 has better CASM than A321ceo and 739NG - at the expense of larger capacity - but is out-CASM'd by both the MAX and A321neo at a smaller gauge).

The NMA is meant to deal with the 767, not the 757.
 
alfa164
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:21 am

ikolkyo wrote:
Contrary to others, I have always felt the MAX 8 has a place in the DL fleet.


That might have once been true, but with the reputation it has developed... I doubt DL would be interested in an airplane that many of its customers might try to avoid.
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aemoreira1981
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:23 am

Currently, on the narrow-body slate, DL has:

16 remaining A220-100
50 A220-300
29 remaining A321-200
100 firm A321neo plus 100 options
(195 firm orders, 100 options - all options on A321neo)

Needing replacement are:
47 remaining MD80s
27 remaining MD90s
57 A320s (35 sub-500 line numbers)
62 A319s
111 B752s (23 with Delta One, 11 in F72 charter)
(304 planes)

I would say that the A319 replacements are accounted for with the A220-300s. The A220-100s are for up-gauging from RJs to mainline.

That leaves the 73H as unaccounted for, as I see it, for replacement. You have 73 owned examples, plus 4 sub-leased from G3 that I suspect will soon head back to G3. I thus expect a split order for the MAX 10 and the A320neo. The trend is to up-gauging.

While not the subject of this article, DL also doesn't really have a suitable replacement for the P&W B763s and some of them will time out in the next 3-4 years. I could see narrow-bodies replacing some, and you have the B753s as well to account for.

As for airfields like SNA, as I have noted in the B6 thread, P&W is developing a 35,000-lb engine for the A21N. DL could spec a sub-fleet of about 40 with that engine, and I expect B6 to want some frames with it too. (This is also designed for hot and high performance, meaning you could down-gauge some routes to a narrow-body from a wide-body from airfields like in Colombia.)
 
ethernal
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:29 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
While not the subject of this article, DL also doesn't really have a suitable replacement for the P&W B763s and some of them will time out in the next 3-4 years. I could see narrow-bodies replacing some, and you have the B753s as well to account for.


I don't think they'll get one. They'll run the 763s into the ground and then replace most of them with A330s of some type (most likely likely A339s). When the 763s retire, some routes will probably terminate because the A339 is just too much plane - both in terms of legs and capacity - but I think Delta will be able to keep most of them, although some year-round routes will likely go seasonal. And of course the domestic D1 routes currently run with a 767 will go A321neo in some sort of International J config.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:45 am

ethernal wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
While not the subject of this article, DL also doesn't really have a suitable replacement for the P&W B763s and some of them will time out in the next 3-4 years. I could see narrow-bodies replacing some, and you have the B753s as well to account for.


I don't think they'll get one. They'll run the 763s into the ground and then replace most of them with A330s of some type (most likely likely A339s). When the 763s retire, some routes will probably terminate because the A339 is just too much plane - both in terms of legs and capacity - but I think Delta will be able to keep most of them, although some year-round routes will likely go seasonal. And of course the domestic D1 routes currently run with a 767 will go A321neo in some sort of International J config.


Yes Delta really messed up on dropping the 788 order. They would have been perfect 763 replacements. It seems as if even LH may eventually operate the 787 leaving DL as the sole mega airline without it. DL passengers will be seeing much more of AMS and CDG when the 763 leaves.
 
Charters737
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:50 am

the only way Delta can counter almost guaranteed success of Breeze is to get a lot more A220s.

The advantages of 2ndary airports are no congestion meaning they can offer more frequencies with A220s than with B738s/A320-21

VA in Australia, have a problem in that they don't have enough B777-300ers to do BNE, SYD & MEL/LAX all daily, while at same time, QF is going into SFO & ORD nonstop from BNE.

Surely DL could fly some Australian routes apart from LAX/SYD & so need more B777s.

The other factors are how long will it take flights to China to recover after Coronavirus & will worldwide recession kill off all future orders of new aircraft for next 5 years or so, while the used market gets flooded with hundreds of relatively new aircraft.
 
dstblj52
Posts: 269
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:18 am

Charters737 wrote:
the only way Delta can counter almost guaranteed success of Breeze is to get a lot more A220s.

The advantages of 2ndary airports are no congestion meaning they can offer more frequencies with A220s than with B738s/A320-21

VA in Australia, have a problem in that they don't have enough B777-300ers to do BNE, SYD & MEL/LAX all daily, while at same time, QF is going into SFO & ORD nonstop from BNE.

Surely DL could fly some Australian routes apart from LAX/SYD & so need more B777s.

The other factors are how long will it take flights to China to recover after Coronavirus & will worldwide recession kill off all future orders of new aircraft for next 5 years or so, while the used market gets flooded with hundreds of relatively new aircraft.

You realize breeze is doing what allegiant has been doing for years and it seems far from a guaranteed success at this point
 
cessna2
Posts: 383
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:31 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Currently, on the narrow-body slate, DL has:

16 remaining A220-100
50 A220-300
29 remaining A321-200
100 firm A321neo plus 100 options
(195 firm orders, 100 options - all options on A321neo)

Needing replacement are:
47 remaining MD80s
27 remaining MD90s
57 A320s (35 sub-500 line numbers)
62 A319s
111 B752s (23 with Delta One, 11 in F72 charter)
(304 planes)

I would say that the A319 replacements are accounted for with the A220-300s. The A220-100s are for up-gauging from RJs to mainline.

That leaves the 73H as unaccounted for, as I see it, for replacement. You have 73 owned examples, plus 4 sub-leased from G3 that I suspect will soon head back to G3. I thus expect a split order for the MAX 10 and the A320neo. The trend is to up-gauging.

While not the subject of this article, DL also doesn't really have a suitable replacement for the P&W B763s and some of them will time out in the next 3-4 years. I could see narrow-bodies replacing some, and you have the B753s as well to account for.

As for airfields like SNA, as I have noted in the B6 thread, P&W is developing a 35,000-lb engine for the A21N. DL could spec a sub-fleet of about 40 with that engine, and I expect B6 to want some frames with it too. (This is also designed for hot and high performance, meaning you could down-gauge some routes to a narrow-body from a wide-body from airfields like in Colombia.)

Don’t forget DL still has 50 options for A220’s.
 
jagraham
Posts: 1003
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:01 am

ethernal wrote:
reltney wrote:
jonair8 wrote:
Delta is really pushing Boeing to create the NMA. They have a sizable 757 fleet that will be hanging on for the rest of the decade because they want something more suitable to replace them with than the 737-9 or 737-10 or the A321neo, something that matches the 757 in both capacity and performance without the weight restriction. Once the NMA is introduced, Delta will have a much clearer plan for narrow body fleet renewal. As far as A320s are concerned, they do not have a set plan to retire yet. If anything, they will most likely be replaced with the NMA or some of the later 321neo deliveries. Delta could even have 7M8/7M9 orders wrapped in to a NMA order a few years from now to address some of the current 738s and 320s retirement.



Right on. It’s almost like you were in the briefing. As stated by Delta, nothing in production comes close to the 757-200 and 300. The 321 neoLRwhatever is the stopgap but can’t quite do the job but is the closest out there. They were banking on the 797 but that’s not working out presently either. Naysayers say what you want but I saw their lips move in the briefing. Can you say that....... it was left with.....we have to be flexible and are....the 757 will stay at present numbers or greater if we can find them thru 2026 as that was the replacement aircraft date of entry into service.

I am waiting with popcorn....

Cheers


As noted above, the NMA has nothing to do with the 757 and the 757 gap is already completely filled with the A321neo.

The 752 gap has already been filled by the A321neo. I'm not sure why anyone thinks that is still an issue. The only exception are maybe 5 routes max in Delta's portfolio that need the short runway capability of the 752 that would likely require material payload restrictions certain times of the year on the A321neo (think routes like SNA-ATL, JAC-ATL). The 753 does not have any unique performance abilities and is economically replaced fully by the A321neo (the 753 has better CASM than A321ceo and 739NG - at the expense of larger capacity - but is out-CASM'd by both the MAX and A321neo at a smaller gauge).

The NMA is meant to deal with the 767, not the 757.



Delta thinks an appropriate 752 replacement is still an issue. They say so every time they are asked. They still have 111 752s. And yes the domestic flying except for the transcons has gone to A321 or 739ER, but after taking about 60 752s out rather quickly (or converting them to NBA charter via sale and lease), the WFU parade slowed to a trickle. In particular, the A321LR was never considered as a TATL replacement, and so far DL has been silent on the A321XLR (which I think is adequate for Western Europe). DL could order A321XLRs if they wanted to, and Airbus would find a way to get them some quickly if they did. But Delta hasn't ordered. Actions speak louder than words.

Then there is the 753 . . .
 
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NWAROOSTER
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:01 am

Remember Delta is no fan of Boeing right now due to Boeing's interference about the Bombardier C100s that Boeing tried to get a 30% tax on Delta's importing of them from Canada. Boeing shot themselves in the foot with that stunt. Boeing will need to build a better aircraft than Airbus and basically give it to Delta. This is what Douglas did with their MD-80s with American to get them to start buying them. Douglas tried it with Northwest Airlines and almost succeeded. They even had a couple painted in Northwest's livery. :old:
Last edited by NWAROOSTER on Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
NateGreat
Posts: 463
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:06 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
acavpics wrote:
I just don't see the 737 max having any place in DL's fleet. The a320neo family seems to be perfect for that market. Not to mention that it drastically simplifies the fleet.


Agreed. If the A220-500 is offered then they could get eventually get the fleet down to four types:

A220
A321
A330
A350

With a -500 varient the A220 can replace 717, MD-88/90, A319, A320, and 737-700/800. A321 replaces 757 and eventually 739.

I don’t care what people have to say about the A221’s range. Capacity-wise, the A221 is the perfect 717 replacement. Just look at the short A221 flights Delta has going out west. The A221 is the closest thing available to the 717, in terms of capacity. The 717 has 110 seats, while the A221 has 109 seats. Nuff said.
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:21 am

I know B shot themselves in the foot with the whole Bombardier fiasco, but a 788 would look pretty sharp in DL colors.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW, PHL, MIA, LAX; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), B739 (DL), B712 (DL), B752 (AA), B763 (AA), B77W (AA), B789 (AA)
Next: TBA
 
RalXWB
Posts: 491
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:50 am

Sad to read that the same old 757-myths are still repeated here. The A321Neo and especially the XLR flies the same payload further than the fossil 757 while being up to 30 percent more efficient...
 
MIflyer12
Topic Author
Posts: 6843
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:12 pm

NWAROOSTER wrote:
Remember Delta is no fan of Boeing right now due to Boeing's interference about the Bombardier C100s that Boeing tried to get a 30% tax on Delta's importing of them from Canada. Boeing shot themselves in the foot with that stunt. Boeing will need to build a better aircraft than Airbus and basically give it to Delta.


I call BS. DL has a fleet of over 1,400 DL and DL Connection aircraft. There are only two vendors. DL is going to play nice with both. This is a multi-$ Billion business, not grade school playground nonsense.
 
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aemoreira1981
Posts: 3181
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Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:14 pm

RalXWB wrote:
Sad to read that the same old 757-myths are still repeated here. The A321Neo and especially the XLR flies the same payload further than the fossil 757 while being up to 30 percent more efficient...


The other issue is performance on short runways, or at hot and high aerodromes. The new PW1135G may help there though.
 
MIflyer12
Topic Author
Posts: 6843
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:18 pm

NateGreat wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
acavpics wrote:
I just don't see the 737 max having any place in DL's fleet. The a320neo family seems to be perfect for that market. Not to mention that it drastically simplifies the fleet.


Agreed. If the A220-500 is offered then they could get eventually get the fleet down to four types:

A220
A321
A330
A350

With a -500 varient the A220 can replace 717, MD-88/90, A319, A320, and 737-700/800. A321 replaces 757 and eventually 739.

I don’t care what people have to say about the A221’s range. Capacity-wise, the A221 is the perfect 717 replacement. Just look at the short A221 flights Delta has going out west. The A221 is the closest thing available to the 717, in terms of capacity. The 717 has 110 seats, while the A221 has 109 seats. Nuff said.


There isn't going to be (any meaningful quantity, if any) A220-500s in 2023/2024. DL extended its leases on the 717s -- they won't be replaced in 2023/2024. The start of my argument is that DL doesn't have orders teed up to keep new aircraft spending flat in that period. If they earn $, they will spend $. Union expectations for wage increases would go through the roof if they saw an extra $2 Billion annually and no plans to spend it by growing/refurbing the carrier.
 
TObound
Posts: 743
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:46 pm

dstblj52 wrote:
Charters737 wrote:
the only way Delta can counter almost guaranteed success of Breeze is to get a lot more A220s.

The advantages of 2ndary airports are no congestion meaning they can offer more frequencies with A220s than with B738s/A320-21

VA in Australia, have a problem in that they don't have enough B777-300ers to do BNE, SYD & MEL/LAX all daily, while at same time, QF is going into SFO & ORD nonstop from BNE.

Surely DL could fly some Australian routes apart from LAX/SYD & so need more B777s.

The other factors are how long will it take flights to China to recover after Coronavirus & will worldwide recession kill off all future orders of new aircraft for next 5 years or so, while the used market gets flooded with hundreds of relatively new aircraft.

You realize breeze is doing what allegiant has been doing for years and it seems far from a guaranteed success at this point


You willing to bet against Neeleman?
 
Weatherwatcher1
Posts: 409
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:14 pm

Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:50 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
reltney wrote:
jonair8 wrote:
Delta is really pushing Boeing to create the NMA. They have a sizable 757 fleet that will be hanging on for the rest of the decade because they want something more suitable to replace them with than the 737-9 or 737-10 or the A321neo, something that matches the 757 in both capacity and performance without the weight restriction. Once the NMA is introduced, Delta will have a much clearer plan for narrow body fleet renewal. As far as A320s are concerned, they do not have a set plan to retire yet. If anything, they will most likely be replaced with the NMA or some of the later 321neo deliveries. Delta could even have 7M8/7M9 orders wrapped in to a NMA order a few years from now to address some of the current 738s and 320s retirement.



Right on. It’s almost like you were in the briefing. As stated by Delta, nothing in production comes close to the 757-200 and 300. The 321 neoLRwhatever is the stopgap but can’t quite do the job but is the closest out there. They were banking on the 797 but that’s not working out presently either. Naysayers say what you want but I saw their lips move in the briefing. Can you say that....... it was left with.....we have to be flexible and are....the 757 will stay at present numbers or greater if we can find them thru 2026 as that was the replacement aircraft date of entry into service.

I am waiting with popcorn....

Cheers



What missions can the 757 do that the A321XLR won’t be able to?


Can an A321XLR fly SNA -ATL with all seats occupied?

There is also a 20% capacity gap between the 191 seat A321 and 234 seat 757-300.
 
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keesje
Posts: 13652
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:10 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
reltney wrote:


Right on. It’s almost like you were in the briefing. As stated by Delta, nothing in production comes close to the 757-200 and 300. The 321 neoLRwhatever is the stopgap but can’t quite do the job but is the closest out there. They were banking on the 797 but that’s not working out presently either. Naysayers say what you want but I saw their lips move in the briefing. Can you say that....... it was left with.....we have to be flexible and are....the 757 will stay at present numbers or greater if we can find them thru 2026 as that was the replacement aircraft date of entry into service.

I am waiting with popcorn....

Cheers



What missions can the 757 do that the A321XLR won’t be able to?


Can an A321XLR fly SNA -ATL with all seats occupied?

There is also a 20% capacity gap between the 191 seat A321 and 234 seat 757-300.


SNA-ATL? Yes & back. Without refueling. https://epsilonaviation.files.wordpress ... jpg?w=1000
And way quieter than anything else flying from Orange County.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ethernal
Posts: 218
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:24 pm

keesje wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:


What missions can the 757 do that the A321XLR won’t be able to?


Can an A321XLR fly SNA -ATL with all seats occupied?

There is also a 20% capacity gap between the 191 seat A321 and 234 seat 757-300.


SNA-ATL? Yes & back. Without refueling. https://epsilonaviation.files.wordpress ... jpg?w=1000
And way quieter than anything else flying from Orange County.


You realize that the SNA runway is only 5700 feet right? All the fuel capacity and MTOW in the world doesn't matter if you need 9000 feet to get airborne with it. The one place the 752 does have unique performance characteristics is short runway performance. That said, even then, the A321neo is only behind a few hundred feet. I think most of the year it could probably do it, but certain times of the summer there is a risk that it is payload restricted (weaker tailwinds and hotter air at SNA). Either way, the A321 is "good enough". There are maybe 5 routes max in Delta's entire route network that may be "better" served by the 752 in that regard - and as I said before, the A321neo can do it "well enough", potentially with the occasional payload restrictions.

On Weatherwatcher1's other point - the 753 - there is no advantage to running a higher gauge aircraft if it is economically more expensive to do so. The 753 is a CASM-machine... in context of last generation's planes. A plane that has higher capacity is - on its own - of no benefit if it does not provide lower CASM. And the CASM on the A321neo (and MAX for that matter) is lower at a lower gauge. Slot restrictions aside, Delta will pretty much always prefer to run a lower gauge at higher frequencies. And really the only place that Delta regularly flies a 753 that is even Level-2 slot restricted (not even Level-3 which is what people generally mean when they say slot restricted) is SFO.
 
ethernal
Posts: 218
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:27 pm

jagraham wrote:
ethernal wrote:
reltney wrote:


Right on. It’s almost like you were in the briefing. As stated by Delta, nothing in production comes close to the 757-200 and 300. The 321 neoLRwhatever is the stopgap but can’t quite do the job but is the closest out there. They were banking on the 797 but that’s not working out presently either. Naysayers say what you want but I saw their lips move in the briefing. Can you say that....... it was left with.....we have to be flexible and are....the 757 will stay at present numbers or greater if we can find them thru 2026 as that was the replacement aircraft date of entry into service.

I am waiting with popcorn....

Cheers


As noted above, the NMA has nothing to do with the 757 and the 757 gap is already completely filled with the A321neo.

The 752 gap has already been filled by the A321neo. I'm not sure why anyone thinks that is still an issue. The only exception are maybe 5 routes max in Delta's portfolio that need the short runway capability of the 752 that would likely require material payload restrictions certain times of the year on the A321neo (think routes like SNA-ATL, JAC-ATL). The 753 does not have any unique performance abilities and is economically replaced fully by the A321neo (the 753 has better CASM than A321ceo and 739NG - at the expense of larger capacity - but is out-CASM'd by both the MAX and A321neo at a smaller gauge).

The NMA is meant to deal with the 767, not the 757.



Delta thinks an appropriate 752 replacement is still an issue. They say so every time they are asked. They still have 111 752s. And yes the domestic flying except for the transcons has gone to A321 or 739ER, but after taking about 60 752s out rather quickly (or converting them to NBA charter via sale and lease), the WFU parade slowed to a trickle. In particular, the A321LR was never considered as a TATL replacement, and so far DL has been silent on the A321XLR (which I think is adequate for Western Europe). DL could order A321XLRs if they wanted to, and Airbus would find a way to get them some quickly if they did. But Delta hasn't ordered. Actions speak louder than words.

Then there is the 753 . . .


Can you find a reference where they specifically reference the lack of a 757 replacement being an issue? I see the 767 all the time in context of the NMA. I have not seen a similar reference to the 752. Yes, Delta technically does not have any XLRs on order, but they do have over 100 neos on order already with committed delivery slots. It takes a stroke of a pen to get those changed out to XLRs - it isn't like Delta needs to order net new XLRs 7 years in advance.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9387
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:48 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
Sad to read that the same old 757-myths are still repeated here. The A321Neo and especially the XLR flies the same payload further than the fossil 757 while being up to 30 percent more efficient...


The other issue is performance on short runways, or at hot and high aerodromes. The new PW1135G may help there though.


The next myth is regarding runway performance:
The A321neo has actually a similar or slightly better take off performance as the 757-200. 1988 m against 2070 m take off run.

The only advantage the 757-200 still has against the A321LR or A321-200XN, is more volume for freight on long flights.

Measured against the A321-200YN, the 757-200 will be inferior in every way.
 
reltney
Posts: 551
Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2004 1:34 am

Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:06 pm

ethernal wrote:
reltney wrote:
jonair8 wrote:
Delta is really pushing Boeing to create the NMA. They have a sizable 757 fleet that will be hanging on for the rest of the decade because they want something more suitable to replace them with than the 737-9 or 737-10 or the A321neo, something that matches the 757 in both capacity and performance without the weight restriction. Once the NMA is introduced, Delta will have a much clearer plan for narrow body fleet renewal. As far as A320s are concerned, they do not have a set plan to retire yet. If anything, they will most likely be replaced with the NMA or some of the later 321neo deliveries. Delta could even have 7M8/7M9 orders wrapped in to a NMA order a few years from now to address some of the current 738s and 320s retirement.



Right on. It’s almost like you were in the briefing. As stated by Delta, nothing in production comes close to the 757-200 and 300. The 321 neoLRwhatever is the stopgap but can’t quite do the job but is the closest out there. They were banking on the 797 but that’s not working out presently either. Naysayers say what you want but I saw their lips move in the briefing. Can you say that....... it was left with.....we have to be flexible and are....the 757 will stay at present numbers or greater if we can find them thru 2026 as that was the replacement aircraft date of entry into service.

I am waiting with popcorn....

Cheers


As noted above, the NMA has nothing to do with the 757 and the 757 gap is already completely filled with the A321neo.

The 752 gap has already been filled by the A321neo. I'm not sure why anyone thinks that is still an issue. The only exception are maybe 5 routes max in Delta's portfolio that need the short runway capability of the 752 that would likely require material payload restrictions certain times of the year on the A321neo (think routes like SNA-ATL, JAC-ATL). The 753 does not have any unique performance abilities and is economically replaced fully by the A321neo (the 753 has better CASM than A321ceo and 739NG - at the expense of larger capacity - but is out-CASM'd by both the MAX and A321neo at a smaller gauge).

The NMA is meant to deal with the 767, not the 757.



The 321 New does not fill the gap...well according to Delta. In fact there is a big gap between the neo and 757 . Gee. If the vp of ops says the 321 neo can come close to the 757 but you say it does...I guess Delta is wrong.... mmmmmm. Yup..that’s it, they are wrong.
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