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Nicknuzzii
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Posts: 1454
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

EWR/JFK with LF and unfulfilled seats

Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:36 am

While analyzing months upon months of international data from both JFK and EWR (Thanks VS4ever) I have noticed how many extra unfilled seats go out at JFK compared to EWR. Here’s a few months I chose at random as examples,

July-
EWR- 209,119
JFK- 486,114

August-
EWR- 164,578
JFK- 423,640

Totals;
EWR- 373,697
JFK- 909,754

When converting those numbers into something of a much smaller scale you will see that for about every 2 seats that goes out empty from EWR, 5 go out unfulfilled from JFK. If EWR does have consistently higher LF’s (yes, it is smaller) in comparison to JFK why don’t more international carriers consider the airport? KLM is missed an opportunity as UA is now going 2x daily to AMS, many airlines fly from EWR- ORY/CDG but not AF, DY consistently had LF north of 94%, ANA has a JV with UA and UA is very profitable on the EWR-NRT route, yet none serve EWR? Once the proposed T2 is (if) built shall we expect more carriers and service?
 
MIflyer12
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Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: EWR/JFK with LF and unfulfilled seats

Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:39 am

There's more to making money than load factors. Carriers look at loads and fares by flight.
 
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Rossiya747
Posts: 338
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Re: EWR/JFK with LF and unfulfilled seats

Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:41 am

JFK is a lot bigger so you need to scale it first ie unfilled seats per filled seat ratio
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
Nicknuzzii
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Posts: 1454
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Re: EWR/JFK with LF and unfulfilled seats

Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:44 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
There's more to making money than load factors. Carriers look at loads and fares by flight.


From what I have seen, yes I don’t have all the technical data but fares from EWR tend to be around $100-400 more expensive on EWR on most flights especially when considering OW carriers vs *A.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Posts: 1454
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Re: EWR/JFK with LF and unfulfilled seats

Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:46 am

Rossiya747 wrote:
JFK is a lot bigger so you need to scale it first ie unfilled seats per filled seat ratio


That would be a LF, for example in June EWR had a nearly 88% LF while JFK only had 86% of its seats filled.
 
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Rossiya747
Posts: 338
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Re: EWR/JFK with LF and unfulfilled seats

Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:50 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
JFK is a lot bigger so you need to scale it first ie unfilled seats per filled seat ratio


That would be a LF, for example in June EWR had a nearly 88% LF while JFK only had 86% of its seats filled.


did you take statistics?
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
ethernal
Posts: 393
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: EWR/JFK with LF and unfulfilled seats

Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:03 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
JFK is a lot bigger so you need to scale it first ie unfilled seats per filled seat ratio


That would be a LF, for example in June EWR had a nearly 88% LF while JFK only had 86% of its seats filled.


So.. not that different.

There are tons of factors that could drive a 2% difference, but the obvious one is that United is such a dominant carrier at EWR. It is easier for them to manage the load factor vs. yield curve than the myriad airlines that fly to JFK with fewer feed options.

While most airlines flying to JFK terminate at a "hub" of some sort, the scale of hub you find at AMM, BCN, NBO is trivial compared to United's operations at EWR.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Posts: 1454
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Re: EWR/JFK with LF and unfulfilled seats

Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:10 am

Rossiya747 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:
JFK is a lot bigger so you need to scale it first ie unfilled seats per filled seat ratio


That would be a LF, for example in June EWR had a nearly 88% LF while JFK only had 86% of its seats filled.


did you take statistics?


Those are from the DOT.
 
mmo
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Joined: Thu Apr 18, 2013 3:04 pm

Re: EWR/JFK with LF and unfulfilled seats

Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:18 am

You are only looking at pax data. You need to calculate cargo too. Those "empty" seats may not be actually empty but there could be a payload limitation due to various factors, such as the addition of cargo up the MTOW. In that case, the load factor would be 100% (which in and of itself means nothing) but your analysis would show it departing at a figure lower than it actually is.
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
alasizon
Posts: 2671
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: EWR/JFK with LF and unfulfilled seats

Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:29 am

You would be better looking at overlapping routes than the airports as a whole to actually gain some meaningful analysis.

To say that JFK only fills 79% of its seats to JNB (for example) and comparing it to EWR overall means nothing since nobody serves EWR-JNB. Comparing apples to apples you'll likely see similar results (i.e. JFK-AMS to EWR-AMS or [email protected] to [email protected])
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