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Amiga500
Posts: 2645
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:43 pm

TFawkes wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
TFawkes wrote:
Given the GEnx is already 2% more efficient then the Trent 1000 TEN (see Air New Zealand) and is still awaiting PIPs from the GE9X program, it wouldn't be a tough target for GE at all. That's 4-5% better fuel burn in total if not more.


Do you have a link please?


https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/air ... 62.article

GE convinced ANZ to change over from the T1000 to the GEnx for fuel burn efficiency reasons as stated in the article.

Now, either that's because the GEnx is already more efficient by a significant enough percentage, or because the Ceramic Matrix Composite PIP will be ready to go by the time ANZ gets their 787-10s. Either way, given the proposal for an A350 NEO, I think it's safe to say GE is working hard on competitive improvements, and knocking this idea is probably short-sighted.

The A330-800 has a brochure range of 15,100km. If GE can provide a 4-5% fuel burn improvement, that could potentially rise to the 16,090km range of the A350-1000, making it a VERY competitive "thin" route ULH craft.

If Boeing's 788 improvements don't push its range that high, Airbus will be unchallenged in that market segment.


Cheers, thanks.
 
TFawkes
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:45 pm

Erebus wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Erebus wrote:
I'd believe it if GE is looking to make an offer for a prospective A350neo which would have a much bigger market footprint than the A330neo.

Indeed, a future A350neo would make more sense.

IIRC RR only have exclusivity on the A350-1000, yet A350-900 is where the sales are now and going forward.

A330neo production just got cut to 40/year from 50/year.

Why would Airbus or GE think that they would make more money by adding a 2nd engine to a relatively slow selling family?

Wasn't RR able to secure an exclusive on the A330neo?

Maybe this is just like the 764-MAX proposal, something to make the GE board think management is trying to think outside the box instead of firing them all.

I suspect this will go quiet, just like the 764-MAX proposal did.


A while back, I recall something about GE in talks with Airbus about powering the A350 (neo?) with a variant of the GEnx. Evidently, that fell silent. But for today's news, it sort of got me thinking. Hypothetically, can GE come up with a single family of GEnx variants with sufficient thrust range to power both the A330neo and the A350-900?

Well the 787s are in the same thrust class as the A330 NEO, and the GE9X exists, so I'm pretty sure you already have a resounding "yes" as your answer. The CMC PIP can probably push the GEnx into the 85-90K lbs. thrust category if needed at the current engine size. A few tweaks to the exhaust to keep the noise low and the chevron's on the Nacelle can be removed for more efficiency. Altogether, I'm pretty sure they can make it work, and scale up the fan for the A35K if they wanted.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:51 pm

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ty-upgrade

GE reckons the gap to -1000 pkC is 3-3.5%.
GE reckons the gap to -1000-TEN is 1.5%.
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:56 pm

Isn't the problem here that Boeing has exclusively on the GE GEnX.
And what's in it for Airbus?
I agree on the smaller engine. 200-300kN. It could become the A300-600, A330-200, 757-300 and 767 replacement. The A321XLR only replaces 757-200.
 
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Polot
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:58 pm

TFawkes wrote:
The A330-800 has a brochure range of 15,100km. If GE can provide a 4-5% fuel burn improvement, that could potentially rise to the 16,090km range of the A350-1000, making it a VERY competitive "thin" route ULH craft.

If Boeing's 788 improvements don't push its range that high, Airbus will be unchallenged in that market segment.

Primary target for fuel burn/range improvements will be the A339, not the A339. Nobody wants a thin ULH aircraft, as evidence by the dearth of A338 sales and the fact that after almost a decade Boeing still hasn’t bothered giving the 788 the 789’s MTOW, or even enough to match the current A338’s range.

ULH is expensive, it is not profitable on a “thin” basis.
 
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calstanford
Posts: 65
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:00 pm

If Boeing's 788 improvements don't push its range that high, Airbus will be unchallenged in that market segment.

Primary target for fuel burn/range improvements will be the A339, not the A339.[/quote]

Uhuh
 
smartplane
Posts: 1474
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:02 pm

Given the issues with RR engines, it's extremely likely contract T&C's have been breached in some shape or form. The NEO is late partly because RR resources were stretched rectifying and producing replacement parts.

However, why would GE be remotely interested unless there is a large single customer or military order on the horizon? Or window dressing / carrot for GE sale? Or intervention to disrupt possible A & RR marriage?
 
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Polot
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:03 pm

calstanford wrote:
If Boeing's 788 improvements don't push its range that high, Airbus will be unchallenged in that market segment.

Primary target for fuel burn/range improvements will be the A339, not the A339.

Uhuh

Sorry typo. Obviously meant not the A338.
 
TFawkes
Posts: 66
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:25 pm

Polot wrote:
TFawkes wrote:
The A330-800 has a brochure range of 15,100km. If GE can provide a 4-5% fuel burn improvement, that could potentially rise to the 16,090km range of the A350-1000, making it a VERY competitive "thin" route ULH craft.

If Boeing's 788 improvements don't push its range that high, Airbus will be unchallenged in that market segment.

Primary target for fuel burn/range improvements will be the A339, not the A339. Nobody wants a thin ULH aircraft, as evidence by the dearth of A338 sales and the fact that after almost a decade Boeing still hasn’t bothered giving the 788 the 789’s MTOW, or even enough to match the current A338’s range.

ULH is expensive, it is not profitable on a “thin” basis.

Boeing just finished attaching the laminar tail and larger wings from the -9 and -10 to the -8, so a MTOW bump may be around the corner.

Thin ULH CAN be profitable, but how profitable is of course down to market demand. The Singapore-Newark flight is one such example. ~160 passengers per flight only works at high yield, though I wouldn't call offering a round trip Premium Economy from Newark to Singapore to Brisbane for just $2400 high yield...

People used to think thin TATL would never work, and yet the 737 MAX, A320 NEO, and A220 are all going to prove it WILL work.

Eventually as we improve our airframes and engines, ULH becomes profitable at lower and lower passenger loads.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:54 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Isn't the problem here that Boeing has exclusively on the GE GEnX.


The original A350 (before the A350XWB) was going to enter service with the GEnx as GE secured the first two years worth of deliveries so Boeing does not have an exclusive on the GEnx, it is just that currently only Boeing frames offer it.
 
VV
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:02 pm

What if this is only a ruse to get some information about any possible improvement GE is planning for the GEnx?

Airbus has the specification of the GEnx back when the A350 had two engine manufacturers on board.
Now they can compare the new information to the information obtained back then and then deduce the improvement achieved and other further improvement in the future.

I think it s a good way to obtain competitive intelligence.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:08 pm

Revelation wrote:
Why would Airbus or GE think that they would make more money by adding a 2nd engine to a relatively slow selling family?


The idea comes from GE, not Airbus.

I highly doubt Airbus would be interested in spending another billion euros to get a GE powered A330neo certified.
Good moaning!
 
VV
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:15 pm

VV wrote:
What if this is only a ruse to get some information about any possible improvement GE is planning for the GEnx?

Airbus has the specification of the GEnx back when the A350 had two engine manufacturers on board.
Now they can compare the new information to the information obtained back then and then deduce the improvement achieved and other further improvement in the future.

I think it s a good way to obtain competitive intelligence.


They absolutely need to know what is in the pipeline for the 787 too.

It is even more important because they now know exactly how the A330neo/Trent 7000 behaves.
Last edited by VV on Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
TFawkes
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:51 pm

Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:17 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Why would Airbus or GE think that they would make more money by adding a 2nd engine to a relatively slow selling family?


The idea comes from GE, not Airbus.

I highly doubt Airbus would be interested in spending another billion euros to get a GE powered A330neo certified.

It wouldn't cost anywhere near 1 billion Euros to certify a second engine for the type. Did Boeing spend 1 billion to certify a 2nd engine for the 787? No.

As long as the ONLY change is the engine and the underlying diagnostics/warnings in the flight computer, then it's trivial, MAYBE 100 million Euros, MAYBE. You'd need to validate the warnings in the cockpit and then run through the flight envelope to ensure there's nothing untoward about the aerodynamics of the new engines, which honestly should be able to be verified by analysis since the frame is proven and we'll understood.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:24 pm

TFawkes wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Why would Airbus or GE think that they would make more money by adding a 2nd engine to a relatively slow selling family?


The idea comes from GE, not Airbus.

I highly doubt Airbus would be interested in spending another billion euros to get a GE powered A330neo certified.

It wouldn't cost anywhere near 1 billion Euros to certify a second engine for the type. Did Boeing spend 1 billion to certify a 2nd engine for the 787? No.

As long as the ONLY change is the engine and the underlying diagnostics/warnings in the flight computer, then it's trivial, MAYBE 100 million Euros, MAYBE. You'd need to validate the warnings in the cockpit and then run through the flight envelope to ensure there's nothing untoward about the aerodynamics of the new engines, which honestly should be able to be verified by analysis since the frame is proven and we'll understood.


The 787 had two engine certification campaigns running simultaneously. That's cheaper than starting a test program for the second time.

The A330neo test program has winded down and restarting will cost money.

IMO the window opportunity has passed.

As long as the ONLY change


It's not the only change. Airbus will have to modify the test fleet and replace the pylons, for example.

The pylon is an expensive piece of equipment.
Good moaning!
 
fabian9
Posts: 64
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 5:27 am

Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:43 pm

TFawkes wrote:
As long as the ONLY change is the engine and the underlying diagnostics/warnings in the flight computer, then it's trivial, MAYBE 100 million Euros, MAYBE. You'd need to validate the warnings in the cockpit and then run through the flight envelope to ensure there's nothing untoward about the aerodynamics of the new engines, which honestly should be able to be verified by analysis since the frame is proven and we'll understood.


That’s assuming that the GE engine will share all the same interfaces with the airframe compared to the T7000, which is highly unlikely.

They’ll need to at least modify the 330neo pylons and nacelles, maybe even some changes in the wings. The whole package will need to then be certified.

So I doubt they’ll get away with spending only 100 million euros on it.
 
trex8
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:03 am

IIRC when the A330neo program was rumored to be in the works, it was GE with the GEnx2 which was mooted to be the engine as they needed a market for those besides the 747-8. In the end when Airbus launched they picked Rolls. And as someone else already said, the original Mk 1 A350 had a GE engine as launch engine, Only when the A350XWB came and Airbus needed something for the A350-1000 did GE drop out as they couldn't make their A359 engine work for a -1000.
Given the Mk 1 A350 was effectively a "A330neo", Ge may have done a significant amount of the work needed to put the GEnx on the present A330neo already
 
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PM
Posts: 5261
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:47 am

dstblj52 wrote:
PM wrote:
I find it hard to see anyone's business case for this but you never know.

But I can sort of see where GE are coming from.

Last year Airbus delivered 53 A330s. Boeing delivered 158 787s. That's 211 together.

RR were on 98 of them (46%) and GE on 113 (54%).

RR gained 30% of 787 deliveries; GE gained 70%.

RR gained 94% of A330 deliveries; GE gained 6%.

RR have about 33% of 787 deliveries going forward (so GE have 77%) whereas GE have just one last A330 to deliver.

Yes, GE are winning on the 787 but when RR throw in their A330 deliveries there's virtually nothing in it.

And with the A350 out-delivering the 777 by more than 2:1 GE will be playing catch up for a while.

RR delivered 55% of all widebody engines in 2018 and 51% in 2019. GE managed 42% and 44% respectively. You can see why they feel they have to do something.

67% not 77 percent

Oops. :blush:
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 584
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:04 am

Jefford717 wrote:
Are all the undelivered A330NEO to date firmed that they will be all powered by RR? Will any of the airline that currently has an order for the NEO switch if GE engine becomes an option? I don’t see the business case for GE, maybe they got some extra money to burn? I don’t think the A330neo market is big enough. I also don’t think that Airbus will deliver more than 500 unit by the end of the decade unless there are government contacts (i.e. tanker).

I think more than 500 A330neo sales is a certainty with all the 330ceo aircraft out there that will need to be replaced this decade. I definitely expect a LH group order (to replace the ceos flying with LH now).
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5
 
speedbird52
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:29 am

Francoflier wrote:
Does the article say which engine they're thinking of offering?
I'm assuming a tailored GenX...

As for the agreement between Airbus and RR, it can always be renegotiated. It would depend on how many concessions RR made to Airbus to be the sole engine vendor and how many more sales Airbus thinks offering GEs would engender.

I doubt Airbus would want to jeopardize their privileged relationship with RR however. Then again, we don't yet know how Brexit is going to affect that.

Wasn't the GENX-2B originally for the original A350 (Which itself was basically an A330 NEO) as well as the 747-8? I heard that it was in fact GE who killed off the BA 748 deal by pricing their engines absurdly, in an effort to kill off the product after the GENX-2B got dropped from the A350, so they would only have to manufacture one variant of the engine.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:23 am

LCDFlight wrote:
Now, I might use the A330neo. The case to buy a 788 is really quite difficult if you do not need the range.

Which doesn't make much sense, seeing as the size-equivalent A330NEO (the -800) has longer range than a 788.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Channex757
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Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:08 am

WayexTDI wrote:
GE Aviation is in somewhat muddy waters these days:
- the LEAP-1B production and deliveries are slowing down (if not stopped at all) due to the 737 MAX grounding;
- the LEAP-1C is in jeopardy due to the US administration wondering if they should pull the Export License;
- the GE9X is not bringing in the revenues yet due to the 777X delay;
- the GEnx-2B (747-8) is basically done;
- the GEnx-1B (787) is starting to slow down (due to the reduction in 787 production).

All of this is starting to weight heavily on them; it's no wonder they're looking for potential additional source of revenue.

There is also a wider picture.

GE is wobbly. The parent company has been losing huge percentages of its value on the stock market. GE Aviation isn't in the same boat as it is largely self-funding and profitable. Just in case GE were to go bankrupt, GE Aviation needs to be sitting as a profitable and saleable unit.

That means writing new business and no more arrogance or sitting on their laurels.

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