yow2den
Topic Author
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Pax Numbers Between YYZ-YOW-YUL During Protests

Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:26 pm

Not wanting to get political, just curious about whether passenger numbers have been increasing on flights between Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal due to the shutdown of VIA Rail service between the cities. Unsure when the protests will end but if they continue on their current track is it possible that extra capacity will have to be added in the eastern triangle? I think it's something like 90% of Canada's population lives in that specific area, so this is definitely a major inconvenience to anyone travelling there. What does everyone think? (Also, not sure if this has been discussed already or not so mods feel free to delete if so)
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Pax Numbers Between YYZ-YOW-YUL During Protests

Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:44 pm

yow2den wrote:
I think it's something like 90% of Canada's population lives in that specific area...


That's too high. The entirety of Ontario and Quebec are 23.2 million people of Canada's 37.8 million. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en ... 1710000901

You'd really have to start with asking what fraction of travelers between Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal take the train vs. car or plane.
 
berari
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Re: Pax Numbers Between YYZ-YOW-YUL During Protests

Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:54 pm

What was the rail traffic between these three cities before the blockades?
 
yow2den
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Re: Pax Numbers Between YYZ-YOW-YUL During Protests

Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:57 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
yow2den wrote:
I think it's something like 90% of Canada's population lives in that specific area...


That's too high. The entirety of Ontario and Quebec are 23.2 million people of Canada's 37.8 million. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en ... 1710000901

You'd really have to start with asking what fraction of travelers between Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal take the train vs. car or plane.


Ah thank you for the correction
 
yow2den
Topic Author
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Re: Pax Numbers Between YYZ-YOW-YUL During Protests

Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:02 pm

berari wrote:
What was the rail traffic between these three cities before the blockades?


According to Statista they moved 2.5 million passengers along that corridor in 2018, but that number could be higher now considering it's from 2 years ago
https://www.statista.com/topics/4585/via-rail-canada/
 
ScottB
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Re: Pax Numbers Between YYZ-YOW-YUL During Protests

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:48 pm

yow2den wrote:
Not wanting to get political, just curious about whether passenger numbers have been increasing on flights between Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal due to the shutdown of VIA Rail service between the cities.


I doubt there's a significant impact. The train is a tiny bit faster than driving, but at five hours between Toronto & Montreal, going by rail is quite a bit slower than the hour-and-change for flying.
 
Thenoflyzone
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Re: Pax Numbers Between YYZ-YOW-YUL During Protests

Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:05 am

We’ll know when February numbers are published at these airports. A small uptick in domestic numbers wouldn’t surprise me.
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
alexdelzotto
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Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:37 pm

Re: Pax Numbers Between YYZ-YOW-YUL During Protests

Sat Feb 22, 2020 4:27 am

I've noticed the last few days AC has been running the whole fleet on YUL-YYZ-YUL

Everything from 763, 330, 787, 77W

Also helps that a few 787's that are used for China are freed up.
 
jimbo737
Posts: 515
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Re: Pax Numbers Between YYZ-YOW-YUL During Protests

Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:58 pm

I wonder what the cycle costs are like operating 787’s on 65 minute sectors.
 
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longhauler
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Re: Pax Numbers Between YYZ-YOW-YUL During Protests

Sat Feb 22, 2020 4:16 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
I wonder what the cycle costs are like operating 787’s on 65 minute sectors.


At $420 a pop, I’d say the total profit is hell of a lot better than Brand X is able to garner trying to compete with a Q400 at $240. (I checked westjet’s loads YYZ-YUL this week. It seems they are having a hard time convincing people to climb on board, even at half the fare and no competing rail service).

Canadian tried that, using ATR-42s. It’s a tough sell.
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dr1980
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Re: Pax Numbers Between YYZ-YOW-YUL During Protests

Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:31 pm

To accurately compare rail vs air in these corridors you really have to look at downtown to downtown times, not gate to gate. If you do that, you’ll find rail is more competitive (and frankly far more comfortable in economy), which is why VIA has the success they do in this part of Canada.

I was initially thinking that with the MAX’s out of service there wouldn’t be much additional capacity to throw at rapidair...but that sounds like they’ve added some heavy flights?
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Dominion301
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Re: Pax Numbers Between YYZ-YOW-YUL During Protests

Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:17 pm

ScottB wrote:
yow2den wrote:
Not wanting to get political, just curious about whether passenger numbers have been increasing on flights between Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal due to the shutdown of VIA Rail service between the cities.


I doubt there's a significant impact. The train is a tiny bit faster than driving, but at five hours between Toronto & Montreal, going by rail is quite a bit slower than the hour-and-change for flying.


It’s definitely having an impact. I can give myself as example. For my next trip to Toronto in a couple of weeks, I was planning on taking the train...on a reward seat at that! Instead I fished out $ and booked Porter YOW-YTZ. Fortunately they had a 1 day seat sale back when the impact of the blockades was only just starting to be felt. Now you won’t see any seat sales in the Eastern Triangle for weeks.

As further evidence, in addition to what @alexdelzotto said about YYZ-YUL upgauges, looking at flightaware for the past few days for YYZ-YOW, there too there are some upgauges. More a couple extra 763s and several more 321s than usual...especially in the past couple of days as things drag on and AC has time to adjust schedules. Tomorrow evening (when everything is normally full as it is), I see AC are adding two extra E90s with 85xx series flight numbers.

WestJet has no noticeable changes...but I imagine they’re fuller than usual. PD well, they’re constrained both by YTZ slots and their cabin refurbs this winter.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Pax Numbers Between YYZ-YOW-YUL During Protests

Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:32 pm

dr1980 wrote:
To accurately compare rail vs air in these corridors you really have to look at downtown to downtown times, not gate to gate. If you do that, you’ll find rail is more competitive (and frankly far more comfortable in economy), which is why VIA has the success they do in this part of Canada.

I was initially thinking that with the MAX’s out of service there wouldn’t be much additional capacity to throw at rapidair...but that sounds like they’ve added some heavy flights?


Certainly there’s a good amount of downtown to downtown demand, especially ex-Toronto where downtown residential is booming. But keep in mind that we’re talking about some pretty spread-out and congested metro areas. For Mississauga-Dorval, flying probably makes more sense. For, say, Dorval-Scarborough, it’s a difficult question.
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