Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
SQ32
Topic Author
Posts: 108
Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:18 pm

Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:27 am

LNA now suggests AS buy A321XLR and states MAX 9/10 can’t do what the A321neo can do. LNA also writes on numerous advantages of A321Neos vs Max.

Also Alaska Airlines last week said it will place an order, perhaps this year, for 200 aircraft for delivery over the next decade.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/02/23/why-t ... more-32677
Last edited by SQ22 on Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title was misleading
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13278
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:37 am

SQ32 wrote:
and states MAX 9/10 can’t do what the A321neo can do.

...as if AS, or anyone who can read, can't figure that out? :lol:

Seriously though, I'm sorta wondering who their audience is with this.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10697
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:41 am

To be honest I question the profitability of many of the proposed routes, even with A321XLR costs, such as SEA-north South America, and getting involved in TPAC bloodbath from SFO and LAX. The only real feasible use if they start a ANC connecting hub, which I have my doubts that they would.
 
KFTG
Posts: 864
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:49 am

Agreed. AS needs to diversify the fleet. They should figure out what they're going to do with the A320 simulator in Burlingame. It is maintained by CAE and hasn't been moved to Seattle yet.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8230
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:57 am

SQ32 wrote:
LNA now suggests AS buy A321XLR...


Ans use it where? Leeham is remarkably short on those details, reminding readers to discount advertised range for winds -- but failing to do so.

SEA-Morocco? Absolutely moronic. They wouldn't have fifty passengers a day. UK-SEA - if there are no winds. Yeh, right. HNL hub? Hawaiian Airlines itself has tried and failed with a lot of TPAC routes for the last decade with 767s and A330s. AS won't do better.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2584
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:05 pm

This is probably the worst article I've read in quite some time. Not a shred of logic to be found.
 
User avatar
bgm
Posts: 2470
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:37 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:10 pm

The distances should be taken with a huge grain of salt, but one thing it does show is how vastly more capable the A321XLR is vs the 737MAX 9/10. The question is, does AS need that extra capability?
 
User avatar
enzo011
Posts: 1905
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:26 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Ans use it where? Leeham is remarkably short on those details, reminding readers to discount advertised range for winds -- but failing to do so.

SEA-Morocco? Absolutely moronic. They wouldn't have fifty passengers a day. UK-SEA - if there are no winds. Yeh, right. HNL hub? Hawaiian Airlines itself has tried and failed with a lot of TPAC routes for the last decade with 767s and A330s. AS won't do better.


According to the article Alaska is looking "aggressively grow" in the next few years. The A321neo has more flexibility over the 737MAX10. It has more range and better field performance. This sums up basically the article,

Expand or Status Quo
As noted in the weekend discussion, the MAX 9 and MAX 10 can reach any destination on the current route system. (The MAX 10 would be a stretch to Hawaii.) If Alaska wants to stay focused on the US and Mexico, these planes will work well.

But if officials have ambition to Central and South America routes, or beefing up service to Anchorage, the A321XLR is the plane to choose. It all depends on how “aggressive” they want to be.

...

The MAX 9/10 simply can’t do what the A321neo can do.

It all comes down to what “aggressively” grow over the next 10 years means.


If growing means adding seats on existing routes, then stay with the MAX as it is able to do all the routes currently. If they look at other strategies then the A321neo offers them more flexibility over the competition.

TTailedTiger wrote:
This is probably the worst article I've read in quite some time. Not a shred of logic to be found.


About as much logic I guess as asserting that the FAA is out to get Boeing in the MAX grounding debacle?
 
User avatar
spinotter
Posts: 796
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:35 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
SQ32 wrote:
and states MAX 9/10 can’t do what the A321neo can do.

...as if AS, or anyone who can read, can't figure that out? :lol:

Seriously though, I'm sorta wondering who their audience is with this.


So here's my qustion. From reading a.net, I have formed the impression that AS is irrevocably chained to Boeing and only acquired VX and their 320's with their fingers blocking their nose passages. WN is another such. So will an airline actually choose an option which will demonstrably lose millions of dollars compared to the alternative strategy because of bland loylty?
 
PHLspecial
Posts: 660
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:11 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:40 pm

Both the Max 9/10 can serve the U.S. and Canada from Seattle at 200 passengers plus. I don't understand a need for the XLR but understand for more A321s.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1213
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:42 pm

The map looks more like an ad to buy the Max than the XLR, unless they plan on flying to Europe which I have no heard about. I think the Max makes the most sense given AS current route map and if they do plan on expanding a 787 option would be adequate.
 
User avatar
msp747
Posts: 479
Joined: Sat May 29, 2010 6:42 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:44 pm

I think it's become pretty apparent that AS likes the A321NEOs and that they will likely add more of them with the upcoming order (which I'd bet will be split between Boeing and Airbus). This article focuses on the XLR version and if AS should stretch their legs. Only those who know what the AS 5 year plan is know if they need them. Unless they want to push themselves far outside their comfort zone, regular A321NEOs should do the trick.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 15144
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:55 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
This is probably the worst article I've read in quite some time. Not a shred of logic to be found.


I think anyone running a narrow body airline would be seriously considering the virtues of a more than one type.AS would be acutely aware of how much money they have lost due to the MAX grounding.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
GSOtoIND
Posts: 86
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:46 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:56 pm

I'm not going to mince words. I had low expectations for that article and came back disappointed. Once you convert from brochure range to real-world range (I used 4000 and 4200 nautical miles), the only meaningful destinations from SEA this opens up are TYO, LHR, PTY, BOG, and UIO. The first two are hubs for AS's OneWorld partners already flown by them. The last three aren't going to be viable for anyone from SEA, let alone an airline with no local partners or established name recognition in South and Central America. SFO and LAX don't even get you across either ocean. Moving to ANC gets you ICN and some of China, but the Max and non-XLR Neo can likely already fly ANC-TYO.

Ultimately, I think there's a distinct possibility AS chooses to stay a two-fleet airline in the long term by acquiring more A321neos, but these ideas of flying long-haul with the XLR are simply bonkers.
IND. 2018: BOS/AUA/MIA/DEN Next: LAS/SLC/DEN
 
User avatar
SQ32
Topic Author
Posts: 108
Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:18 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:17 pm

Boeing and MAX have shown not only having problems in engineering, but also production, process, QA, safety and collusion with regulators. It is definitely a big plus in marketing for any airline that can proudly proclaim not having a single MAX in her fleet.

This is in addition to the superior mission perspective that LNA advocated in favor of A321Neo.
 
User avatar
FLALEFTY
Posts: 795
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:33 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:22 pm

Alaska is currently operating a fleet of 10 A321N's. They do not have any others on firm order and all in this current A321N fleet are leased. However, Alaska inherited an order for 30 A320N's from Virgin America that has yet to be delivered. Perhaps this open order could be reworked to bring in a lesser number of A321XLR's?

Meanwhile, Alaska has begun phasing out their A320CEO fleet, with 2 returned to lessors since the first of the year and a 3rd put in storage awaiting its return to the lessor. Alaska plans to have all of their A319/320CEO fleet retired by 2024.
 
User avatar
msp747
Posts: 479
Joined: Sat May 29, 2010 6:42 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:35 pm

SQ32 wrote:
Boeing and MAX have shown not only having problems in engineering, but also production, process, QA, safety and collusion with regulators. It is definitely a big plus in marketing for any airline that can proudly proclaim not having a single MAX in her fleet.

This is in addition to the superior mission perspective that LNA advocated in favor of A321Neo.

What airline would market like that? Trying to cash in on the fears some travelers may have? You're letting your Airbus fandom cloud your judgement.
 
User avatar
SQ32
Topic Author
Posts: 108
Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:18 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:11 pm

Why not? It opens up western Europe and many market in South America using narrow body.

In addition, everybody knows the aerodynamic vantage of A321Neo need no MCAS. And much more others.

Common sense please.

sxf24 wrote:
SQ32 wrote:
The superior capabilities of A321Neo vs Max is already on the wall. Boeing can't fix this.


They have different capabilities. Only on a.net is the ability to take on more fuel to fly farther equal to superiority.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20245
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:17 pm

The article also states: "LNA believes that Alaska should rely on the MAX 9 to replace the 61 A319ceos and A320ceos. With 37 MAXes already on order, adding to this fleet rather than adding the A320neo makes sense."

If Boeing does a -9 with the -10 gear (hypothetical -9ER) that works for AS.

Most xLR routes are for the US Midwest to Europe (or vice versa), within Asia, India to EU, or within Americas. AS will buy more NEOs, I would just not count out a -9ER in their fleet.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1007
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:25 pm

SQ32 wrote:
Why not? It opens up western Europe and many market in South America using narrow body.

In addition, everybody knows the aerodynamic vantage of A321Neo need no MCAS. And much more others.

Common sense please.

sxf24 wrote:
SQ32 wrote:
The superior capabilities of A321Neo vs Max is already on the wall. Boeing can't fix this.


They have different capabilities. Only on a.net is the ability to take on more fuel to fly farther equal to superiority.


The international markets have low demand, high competition, and are poorly suited for a narrow body with no cargo capability (since payload would be used for pax, bags and fuel).
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10697
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:53 pm

I don’t think anyone really denies that the A321neo is a good choice to grow and diversify the fleet, but the article does a terrible job convincing that AS needs A321XLRs, which is the entire premise of the article. Scott himself admits the plane is not ideally suited for Europe or Asia from AS’s current hubs, and says in the comments that he sees Latin/South America as the main opportunities. I just don’t see it. AS’s hubs are not ideally located for South American connections, AS has no brand recognition in those markets, and the Pacific Northwest does not have strong demand to those markets. The only way it makes sense is for Asia connections, but UA/AA/DL have far stronger networks to capture that traffic, and all on their own metal, with better name recognition, and aircraft ideally suited for the market.

This article does more to convince me of the opposite of its premise- it appears that something with the XLr’s range is not ideal for AS at all which is something I have said about the MoM aircraft in the past. They are not great for west US because they have too little range for TPAC and too little range for TATL, so the extra range over the base narrowbodies just isn’t worth it.
 
Lapplander800
Posts: 97
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:56 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:12 pm

I could see XLR for AS to operate a CA hub to Latin America. LAX, SNA or SAN which could also strengthen the operations of those locations for them and generally harden their CA / "west coast" presence.

However, as they have just pulled out of MEX I am not convinced. AS has not been big on selling competitive connecting fares from what I have seen, they seem to value the idea that every leg must pay for itself so this would be a new business model for them.

The PNW to Latin America idea is kinda funny to me. Surely there is a better geographical location to launch LATAM flights than SEA!
 
User avatar
FiscAutTecGarte
Posts: 140
Joined: Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:26 pm

spinotter wrote:
So here's my qustion. From reading a.net, I have formed the impression that AS is irrevocably chained to Boeing and only acquired VX and their 320's with their fingers blocking their nose passages. WN is another such. So will an airline actually choose an option which will demonstrably lose millions of dollars compared to the alternative strategy because of bland loylty?


I don't think so. I really think both of those Airlines are probably considering alternatives.

The thing is for SouthWest,they still have a tremendous amount of 73G in service. the 175pax capacity of 738 at 32" pitch is the perfect size for the upsizing they've been doing. A320 is too small and A321 is too large. If Airbus really did an A320.5, and put it right between A319/A225 (future) and A321 capacity wise, they'd have a very well suited plane for 800 replacement market and A319/A320/73G upscaling market... Not everyone is ready for the huge capacity leap of the A321.

In the case of Alaska Airliners, their routes are different than WN.. they could do with the range of A321XLR or capacity of A321.

Interesting to see who blinks first by ordering a Boeing alternative.I suspect once one does it, the other will as well.
learning never stops...

FischAutoTechGarten is the full handle and it reflects my interest. It's abbreviated to fit A.net short usernames.
 
User avatar
FiscAutTecGarte
Posts: 140
Joined: Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:33 pm

lightsaber wrote:
If Boeing does a -9 with the -10 gear (hypothetical -9ER) that works for AS.
Lightsaber


What if they did an -8 with the -10 gear (hypothetical -8ER that has short field capabilities approaching that of -7). Would that work for anyone? Never mind... I think I'm getting too off topic with that question...

A 9ER with 10 gear is interesting as it's a true single class 200pax 32/33"pitch plane (like a WN 738 @ 175pax) with improved field performance (well assumed and this is where we could all get in trouble).
learning never stops...

FischAutoTechGarten is the full handle and it reflects my interest. It's abbreviated to fit A.net short usernames.
 
tiptoe42
Posts: 49
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:27 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:34 pm

Alaska is Pacific Northwest regional airline, management cares about Seattle and not really a whole lot else. That’s fine they are profitable doing that. This talk of growth is all smoke in mirrors using outsourced flying in the form of horizon and Skywest, codeshares through the new Oneworld alliance etc. Alaska Airlines really has no need for the capabilities of the new versions of the 321Neo, and the max series airplanes can do about everything Alaska Airlines need them to do other than DCA.
 
ewt340
Posts: 1273
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:40 pm

Obviously they need too. What other options they got? MAX10 EXTRA EXTRA RANGE?
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 748
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:10 pm

Looking at those maps, its clear how disadvantaged SEA is as a trans-oceanic hub for Alaska, compared to what B6 has at BOS/JFK.

Alaska can look forward to... Japan and little else, while B6 has all of Europe. And something tells me the people flying to Japan won't deal with a narrow body as well as the crowds traveling to European cities would.
 
Tailwinds
Posts: 53
Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2007 2:46 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:52 pm

The XLR just doesn't do much useful from west coast hubs. Compared to the standard ranges:
ANC: adds Japan, China, and the entirety of North America beyond a line from El Paso to Chicago.
SEA: adds northern Japan, Central America and NW South America down to Lima, and maybe Scandinavia.
LAX: adds Iceland and NW South America through Bolivia.

That just isn't great on its own unless a TPAC hub through ANC is in the works. Also I'd expect a 321XLR to get killed in costs by any widebody, so we're looking at point-to-point on secondary markets. South and Central America are already well served to LAX.

Compare this to other airlines. Hawaiian and jetBlue gain massively with the XLR in their networks.

HNL: Hawaiian adds all of North America east of the Rockies, Aus/NZ, Japan, Korea, maybe even Beijing and Shanghai.
BOS: JetBlue gets South America to the tip of Brazil, all of Europe to Moscow and Istanbul, and the northwestern third of Africa.
FLL: JetBlue adds Alaska, all of SA beyond Bolivia (the entire hemisphere!), Western Europe, Scandinavia, and Western Africa.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13278
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:32 pm

spinotter wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
SQ32 wrote:
and states MAX 9/10 can’t do what the A321neo can do.

...as if AS, or anyone who can read, can't figure that out? :lol:

Seriously though, I'm sorta wondering who their audience is with this.

So will an airline actually choose an option which will demonstrably lose millions of dollars compared to the alternative strategy because of bland loylty?

It's not brand loyalty per se.... that's intangible.
It's what do they *GET* in exchange for that brand loyalty.

O'Leary is on record as saying that "he wouldn't even tell a priest" about the insane discounts and incentives that Boeing has offered for some of their past orders.
It's inconceivable that WN wouldn't receive similar such deals.

These carriers aren't stupid, they know the risk inherent to basing their strategy on such little diversity, but it's a matter of PRIORITY:
on one hand, you have the inherent risk; but on the other hand you have all the benefits (common labor, common mtx, common parts, etc etc).

WN was fortunate in the early '90s: if Eastwind 517 had gone down instead of recovered (due to the then-mysterious 737 rudder malfunctions), then it's very possible, if not probable, that the 737 would've been grounded fleetwide... then where would WN have been??

But that didn't happen. So up until now, those aforementioned benefits have all significantly outweighed the risk.
Now, airlines may be recalculating the risk portion to see if the equation still balances out.

If it does, we'll see them continue along their single-fleet paths. If not, we'll see them diversity.
I'm betting on the latter. Looks like WN's board is (rather publicly) considering doing so as well.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
User avatar
william
Posts: 3332
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 1999 1:31 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:07 pm

spinotter wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
SQ32 wrote:
and states MAX 9/10 can’t do what the A321neo can do.

...as if AS, or anyone who can read, can't figure that out? :lol:

Seriously though, I'm sorta wondering who their audience is with this.


So here's my qustion. From reading a.net, I have formed the impression that AS is irrevocably chained to Boeing and only acquired VX and their 320's with their fingers blocking their nose passages. WN is another such. So will an airline actually choose an option which will demonstrably lose millions of dollars compared to the alternative strategy because of bland loylty?


I love sarcasm..........Yeah just like EasyJet should order some MAXes so they are not dependent on Airbus.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2584
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:17 pm

william wrote:
spinotter wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
...as if AS, or anyone who can read, can't figure that out? :lol:

Seriously though, I'm sorta wondering who their audience is with this.


So here's my qustion. From reading a.net, I have formed the impression that AS is irrevocably chained to Boeing and only acquired VX and their 320's with their fingers blocking their nose passages. WN is another such. So will an airline actually choose an option which will demonstrably lose millions of dollars compared to the alternative strategy because of bland loylty?


I love sarcasm..........Yeah just like EasyJet should order some MAXes so they are not dependent on Airbus.


Yeah it seems it's only the all Boeing airlines that should start splitting their fleet... :roll:
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13278
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:20 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Yeah it seems it's only the all Boeing airlines that should start splitting their fleet

I sometimes wonder if you actually even know HOW to post in good faith. :roll:

Who is saying "all Boeing" or "all Airbus" matters in regard to risk?
The risk is in a single type, not nearly equivalent to saying single OEM.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2584
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:23 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
spinotter wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
...as if AS, or anyone who can read, can't figure that out? :lol:

Seriously though, I'm sorta wondering who their audience is with this.

So will an airline actually choose an option which will demonstrably lose millions of dollars compared to the alternative strategy because of bland loylty?

It's not brand loyalty per se.... that's intangible.
It's what do they *GET* in exchange for that brand loyalty.

O'Leary is on record as saying that "he wouldn't even tell a priest" about the insane discounts and incentives that Boeing has offered for some of their past orders.
It's inconceivable that WN wouldn't receive similar such deals.

These carriers aren't stupid, they know the risk inherent to basing their strategy on such little diversity, but it's a matter of PRIORITY:
on one hand, you have the inherent risk; but on the other hand you have all the benefits (common labor, common mtx, common parts, etc etc).

WN was fortunate in the early '90s: if Eastwind 517 had gone down instead of recovered (due to the then-mysterious 737 rudder malfunctions), then it's very possible, if not probable, that the 737 would've been grounded fleetwide... then where would WN have been??

But that didn't happen. So up until now, those aforementioned benefits have all significantly outweighed the risk.
Now, airlines may be recalculating the risk portion to see if the equation still balances out.

If it does, we'll see them continue along their single-fleet paths. If not, we'll see them diversity.
I'm betting on the latter. Looks like WN's board is (rather publicly) considering doing so as well.


Do you realize just how long it would take an airline like WN or FR to build up a second fleet type? WN has 752 737's. Even if WN were to somehow get 100 A320's in the next decade it would still be absolutely catastrophic to them if the 737 were grounded. They would be finished with or without a second fleet type.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13278
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:41 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Do you realize just how long it would take an airline like WN or FR to build up a second fleet type? WN has 752 737's. Even if WN were to somehow get 100 A320's in the next decade

That's an average of 10 per year dude, less than one per month.
Some airlines receive large widebodies in such quantity. It's nothing at all to get that for narrowbodies, even with currently "full" production line slots.

WN could triple if not quintuple that intake were they simply to ....(wait on it).... PAY to do so.
Not to say they would, but they definitely could.



TTailedTiger wrote:
They would be finished with or without a second fleet type.

So your solution is to, instead of begin the process, stay subjected? Good thing their board sees this differently than you.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2584
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:54 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Do you realize just how long it would take an airline like WN or FR to build up a second fleet type? WN has 752 737's. Even if WN were to somehow get 100 A320's in the next decade

That's an average of 10 per year dude, less than one per month.
Some airlines receive large widebodies in such quantity. It's nothing at all to get that for narrowbodies, even with currently "full" production line slots.

WN could triple if not quintuple that intake were they simply to ....(wait on it).... PAY to do so.
Not to say they would, but they definitely could.



TTailedTiger wrote:
They would be finished with or without a second fleet type.

So your solution is to, instead of begin the process, stay subjected? Good thing their board sees this differently than you.


I have as much faith of seeing an A320 in WN colors that I do of seeing a 737 in NK colors. Permission to look is not permission to order. And if you don't think Boeing would offer them whatever they demanded then we may as well be living on different planets. Losing WN would be an irrecoverable blow to Boeong.
 
User avatar
gatibosgru
Posts: 1773
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:48 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:26 am

enzo011 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
This is probably the worst article I've read in quite some time. Not a shred of logic to be found.


About as much logic I guess as asserting that the FAA is out to get Boeing in the MAX grounding debacle?


Shots fired :duck:
@DadCelo
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 13278
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:35 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
I have as much faith of seeing an A320 in WN colors that I do of seeing a 737 in NK colors.

First, no one cares.

Second, why do you assume A320?



TTailedTiger wrote:
Losing WN would be an irrecoverable blow to Boeong.

LOL, what are you talking about: Boeing has lost exclusivity on airlines far bigger than WN (AA and DL circa 1997), and they're doing just fine.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
9Patch
Posts: 583
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:38 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:39 am

LAX772LR wrote:
O'Leary is on record as saying that "he wouldn't even tell a priest" about the insane discounts and incentives that Boeing has offered for some of their past orders.

Would he tell if Airbus offered him a bribe?
 
User avatar
N776AU
Posts: 1008
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2005 7:18 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:22 am

I thought someone at Alaska is on the record that their M.O. is to dump the Airbuses (Airbii?) at the first opportunity.
Careful, doors are closing, and will not reopen. Please wait for the next train.
 
djpearman
Posts: 19
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:02 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:31 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Do you realize just how long it would take an airline like WN or FR to build up a second fleet type? WN has 752 737's. Even if WN were to somehow get 100 A320's in the next decade it would still be absolutely catastrophic to them if the 737 were grounded. They would be finished with or without a second fleet type.


FR have already started this by creating a holding company and acquiring LaudaMotion, who fly A320s - see https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Ryanair-Holdings-Group
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:30 am

How many city pairs would an XLR open compared to a Max9?

If there is no tangible additions, then paying the premium for an XLR doesn't stack up. An A321N might - if it delivers better performance over the existing mission set of Alaska.

edit: Can the 737-10 reliably do west coast from ANC? [can the 737-9 even reliably do west coast from ANC?]

Would an XLR be any better or would it be MTOW rather than fuel limited?
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10697
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:59 am

Amiga500 wrote:
edit: Can the 737-10 reliably do west coast from ANC? [can the 737-9 even reliably do west coast from ANC?]

Without fully knowing the takeoff performance of the -10 probably. Before the grounding UA was using the Max 9 on IAH-ANC. ANC has nice long 10k+ ft runways. The Maxes would generally have better take off performance on these routes than the 900ER because they will lighter due to less fuel.

An XLR is not needed for ANC-West coast USA. The plane would be neither volume nor MTOW limited.
 
airzona11
Posts: 1768
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:04 pm

SQ32 wrote:
LNA now suggests AS buy A321XLR and states MAX 9/10 can’t do what the A321neo can do. LNA also writes on numerous advantages of A321Neos vs Max.

Also Alaska Airlines last week said it will place an order, perhaps this year, for 200 aircraft for delivery over the next decade.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/02/23/why-t ... more-32677


In AS (or others) case, why would you buy that plane if we aren't going to push it that far. The 739 does fine against the A321. UA/DL/AS all operate them on the long US transcons. The premise of the article could also be written.... The A333 cannot do what the 772ER.... so what?
 
tommy1808
Posts: 13459
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:06 pm

enzo011 wrote:
According to the article Alaska is looking "aggressively grow" in the next few years. The A321neo has more flexibility over the 737MAX10. It has more range and better field performance.


I would assume A321nXLR may be easier to offload if the aggressive expansion doesn't play out as planned. Aside of that, they really don't have any reason, unless their plans include something too far for the max.

N776AU wrote:
I thought someone at Alaska is on the record that their M.O. is to dump the Airbuses (Airbii?) at the first opportunity.


Yes, but I think that was before they had the A321n performance figures on the table. Now they are flying them for two years....

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 865
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:15 pm

AS should only buy more Airbus equipment if the Airbus Equipment and parts can be interchanged with Boeing.

We know this is not the case though. So AS should go with a Boeing option with interchangeable parts to supplement the future MAX.

Hmmm I wonder what that could be though. Maybe a new efficient 767.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos