tphuang wrote:enilria wrote:FSDan wrote:
That makes the most sense of anything I've heard, although hopefully in a slightly shorter timeframe. In 5-10 years AA will have A321-200XLRs in the fleet and a bunch more 787s, which might make long haul routes possible out of JFK that AA hasn't found viable with 767s and 777s (think a return to DUB, FRA, ZRH, 2nd daily CDG, etc. to cater to business travelers). By then the terminal build-out with 5 additional widebody gates will also be complete, BA will have moved in, and the RJ gates will be gone. At that time I think AA will need to find places they can profitably send mainline equipment from JFK in order to continue using their slots and avoid having them go to a competitor like UA who could mess with their all-important JFK-LAX/SFO routes. Of course, if slots do go away, their strategy could change.
AA's slot portfolio in NYC is certainly not going to allow them to match DL or UA's network, but at the same time they do have ample slots to be able to fly a network that is really appealing to business travelers (especially when including BA, JL, and CX). Time will tell whether they're up to the challenge.
Great points with the fleet and terminal. But still not sure why not lease them to B6 for X years?
People have to stop acting like A321XLR will somehow give AA an edge in TATL again. At least B6 and UA will already be flying A321LR/XLR from NYC at that time and both carriers are a lot stronger than AA. What advantage will AA really have? AA right now is even cutting back on JFK-LAX. What ff is left when you ignore them for 5 to 10 years?
And I'd be shocked if UA isn't back in JFK in the next 5 years.
Their currents lot portfolio at JFK didn't allow them to succeed when they had more ff in NYC than DL. How is it going to change if they have much fewer ff in NYC than DL? They should work to preserve the performance of LGA, which was already estimated to be their least profitable hub.
I'm just going off statements by AA's VP of Network Planning... I believe he specifically mentioned New York when discussing some of the possibilities they see with the A321XLR. He's also reaffirmed AA's commitment to NYC (and particularly business travelers). Of course, he could just be saying that as they figure out what they really want to do, but for now that's the only indication we have from AA on what their plans are. Also, with 50 XLRs on order, what do you think are the chances that none of them fly TATL from JFK? I'd say very slim.
Finally, I feel it's very premature to declare B6's victory over AA in the transatlantic market. They may do very well, but we're still years away from being able to describe them as "a lot stronger than AA" in that arena. By AA's own admission, JFK TATL is very profitable for them now.