FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

Why temp suspension?
*4B DDC-DEN MAR 3>0[3] APR 3>0.1[3] MAY 3>0.3[3] JUN 3>0.1[3] JUL 3>1.7[3] AUG 3>1.5[3]

7H AKN-ANC MAY 1.0>2[0.2]
7H ANC-ENA MAY 8>9[9] JUL 8>11[11] AUG 8>11[11]
7H ANC-HOM JUN 4>5[5] JUL 4>5[5] AUG 4>5[5]

*9X IPL-LAX MAY 0.3>3[3] JUN 0>3[0] JUL 0>3[0] AUG 0>3[0] SEP 0>3[0] OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0]

AA ABE-PHL MAY 3>2.0[3]
AA ACT-DFW SEP 5>6[5] OCT 5>6[5] NOV 4>5[5]
AA AGS-DFW AUG 1.6>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0] OCT 1.0>2[1.0] NOV 1.0>2[1.0]
AA AVL-PHL MAY 2.0>1.0[1.0]
AA BGR-LGA AUG 1.2>1.7[1.2] SEP 0.3>1.3[1.1] OCT 0>0.2[1.1]
AA BNA-DFW SEP 8>9[7] OCT 8>9[7] NOV 8>9[7]
AA BTR-DFW SEP 6>7[6] OCT 6>7[6] NOV 6>7[6]
Appears AA suddenly is covering some of their JFK slots. Interesting...
*AA BWI-JFK APR 1.0>2[1.0]
AA CDG-DFW NOV 2>1.4[1.3]
AA CHA-PHL MAY 1.0>0[0.9]
**AA CRW-ORD MAY 1.0>0[0] JUN 1.0>0[0] JUL 1.0>0[0] AUG 1.0>0[0] SEP 1.0>0[0.9] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0]
AA DCA-RSW AUG 1.0>0.5[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[0.1]
AA DCA-TPA JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 3>4[3] SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3] NOV 3>4[3]
AA DEN-DFW AUG 10>11[10] SEP 10>12[9] OCT 10>12[10] NOV 10>12[9]
AA DFW-GRI JUN 2>3[3] JUL 2>3[3] AUG 2>3[3] SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2] NOV 2>3[2]
AA DFW-GRK JUN 7>8[8] JUL 7>8[7]
AA DFW-GSO SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[3] NOV 3>4[3]
AA DFW-IAD JUN 4>3[4] JUL 4>3[3] AUG 4>3[4] SEP 4>3[4] OCT 4>3[4] NOV 4>3[4]
AA DFW-IND SEP 5>6[5] OCT 5>6[5] NOV 5>6[5]
AA DFW-LBB SEP 7>8[7] OCT 7>8[7] NOV 7>8[6]
AA DFW-MAD NOV 2>1.6[1.4]
AA DFW-MEM SEP 7>8[8] OCT 7>8[8] NOV 7>8[7]
AA DFW-MRY AUG 1.0>1.4[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0] OCT 1.0>1.2[1.0]
AA DFW-MSY SEP 9>8[8]
AA DFW-NAS AUG 1.1>1.5[1.2] SEP 0>0.3[0]
AA DFW-OMA JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4] AUG 4>5[4] SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4] NOV 4>5[4]
AA DFW-PHL SEP 9>10[9] OCT 9>10[9] NOV 9>10[8]
AA DFW-SAV JUN 4>3[3] JUL 4>3[3] AUG 4>3[3] SEP 4>2[2] OCT 4>3[2] NOV 4>3[2.0]
AA DFW-TVC JUL 1.3>1.5[1.1]
**AA DLH-ORD MAY 2.0>0[0.6] JUN 2>0[2.0] JUL 2>0[1.9] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 2>0[2.0] OCT 2>0[2.0] NOV 2>0[1.9]
AA ITH-PHL JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3]
*AA JFK-PHL APR 0>3[1.0] MAY 0>0.4[0.1]
AA JFK-PIT APR 1.0>1.8[0.0]
AA JFK-PUJ AUG 0.5>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[0.1]
*AA JFK-RIC APR 1.2>4[0]
AA MIA-PHX SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3] NOV 3>4[3]
AA MLB-PHL MAY 1.0>0[0.1]
AA PHL-SCE MAY 4>3[4]
AA PHL-XNA MAY 0.9>0.0[0]

AC HNL-YVR JUL 1.0>0.6[0.6] AUG 1.0>0.6[0.5]
AC OGG-YVR JUL 1.0>0.4[0.4] AUG 1.0>0.4[0.5]
AC SMF-YVR JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0]

AD BEL-FLL MAR 0>0.4[0.6] APR 0>0.3[0.5] MAY 0>0.3[0.4] JUN 0>0.4[0.3] AUG 0>0.6[0.5] SEP 0>0.6[0.4] OCT 0.1>0.5[0.4]

AM FAT-GDL JUL 1.9>1.4[1.0] SEP 0.7>0.4[0.7] OCT 0.7>0.5[0.7] NOV 0.7>0.4[0.8]
AM GDL-ORD JUL 1.0>1.5[2] AUG 0.9>1.1[1.5]
AM GDL-SFO SEP 0.8>0.4[0.9] OCT 0.9>0.5[0.8] NOV 0.9>0.4[0.9]
AM GDL-SMF SEP 1.0>0.4[1.0] OCT 1.0>0.4[1.0] NOV 1.0>0.5[1.0]
AM MEX-ORD NOV 1.3>1.0[1.0]

B6 BOS-EWR MAY 7>6[4]
B6 BOS-FLL MAY 5>4[6]
B6 BOS-JFK MAY 6>7[6]
B6 BUF-JFK MAY 5>6[5]
B6 FLL-RIC MAY 1.9>1.0[1.7]
B6 JFK-KIN MAY 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-RDU MAY 2>3[2]
B6 JFK-STI MAY 5>6[6]
B6 MCO-PSE MAY 2.0>1.0[2.0]

BA LHR-MIA APR 2>3[3] MAY 2>3[3]
BA LHR-SEA MAY 2>3[2]

BW KIN-MCO SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0]

CX BOS-HKG MAR 0.7>0.4[1.0]
CX HKG-LAX MAR 1.9>1.4[3]
CX HKG-ORD MAR 0.6>0.4[1.0]
CX HKG-SFO MAR 1.8>1.1[3]

CZ CAN-JFK APR 1.0>0.6[1.4] MAY 1.0>0.6[1.4]

DI BOS-LGW NOV 0.7>1.0[1.0]

DL ATL-PHX NOV 6>7[6]
DL CPH-JFK MAY 0.4>0.9[0.3]
DL CVG-SEA SEP 0.7>0.9[0.5] OCT 0.7>1.0[0.5]
DL FSD-MSP OCT 7>8[6] NOV 7>8[6]
DL MSP-TUS NOV 0>1.0[0.9]
DL OMA-SLC SEP 2>3[1.9] OCT 2>3[1.7] NOV 2>3[1.7]

DY CDG-MCO NOV 0>0.3[0.2]
DY FCO-JFK NOV 0>0.4[0.7]
DY FCO-LAX NOV 0>0.3[0]

LV EWR-ORY NOV 0>0.7[0.6]

LY JFK-TLV JUN 2>3[2.0] JUL 2>3[2] SEP 2>3[2.0] OCT 2>3[2.0]

NK BOS-MYR MAY 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUN 1.2>1.5[1.0] JUL 1.3>1.7[1.0] AUG 1.3>1.7[1.0]
NK BWI-TPA JUN 1.0>1.7[1.6] JUL 1.0>2[1.6] AUG 1.0>2[1.6] SEP 0.3>0.5[0.9]
NK CLE-MYR JUN 1.3>1.6[1.0] JUL 1.4>1.9[1.0] AUG 1.4>1.8[1.0]
NK IAG-MYR JUN 0.7>0.5[0.7] JUL 0.7>0.5[0.7] AUG 0.7>0.4[0.7]
NK MSY-ORD APR 1.0>1.3[1.0] MAY 1.0>2[1.0] JUN 1.0>1.3[1.0]
NK MYR-PIT AUG 1.4>1.7[1.0]

SQ SFO-SIN MAR 2>1.6[1.5]

UA ATL-ORD APR 7>8[7]
UA ATW-ORD AUG 8>9[5] SEP 8>10[5] OCT 8>10[5] NOV 8>10[5]
UA BWI-ORD APR 3>4[3]
UA CID-ORD SEP 7>8[5] OCT 7>8[5] NOV 7>8[5]
UA CLE-ORD JUL 7>8[8]
UA CUN-EWR SEP 1.3>2[1.3]
UA DCA-ORD JUL 13>14[14]
UA EWR-FLL APR 8>9[8]
UA EWR-MSY APR 5>6[6]
UA EWR-PNS AUG 0.5>1.0[1.0] SEP 0>0.2[0.3]
*UA IAD-SRQ JUN 1.0>0.1[0] JUL 1.0>0[0] AUG 1.0>0[0] SEP 1.0>0[0]
In, out, in, out. Weird...
*UA JAN-ORD MAY 1.0>0.2[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[0.2] JUL 1.0>0[0] AUG 1.0>0.5[0]
UA LAX-SJD AUG 0.7>1.2[0.8] SEP 0>1.0[0]
UA MMH-SFO MAY 0.2>0[0]
10RTs?
*UA ORD-SBN AUG 7>8[4] SEP 7>10[5] OCT 7>10[5] NOV 7>10[5]

UP FLL-FPO APR 1.6>1.0[1.7] MAY 1.7>1.0[1.7] JUN 1.7>1.0[1.7] JUL 1.7>1.0[1.7] AUG 1.7>1.0[1.7] SEP 1.7>1.0[1.7] OCT 1.7>1.0[1.7] NOV 1.7>1.0[0.8]
*UP FLL-GGT APR 0.4>0[0] MAY 0.5>0[0] JUN 0.4>0[0] JUL 0.5>0[0] AUG 0.4>0[0]
UP MCO-NAS MAR 0.7>1.0[1.0] APR 3>1.6[1.4] MAY 3>1.7[1.7] JUN 3>1.7[2] JUL 3>2[2] AUG 3>2[3]

VR IAD-SID MAR 0.4>0.2[0]

Odd that AA’s JFK adds are just for April. PANYNJ “use ‘em or lose ‘em” ultimatum I wonder?

For UA:
-IAD-SRQ, maybe UA finally here the “it’s not fair” cries that SRQ had gained year-round IAD service, while MIA doesn’t, lol.
-ORD-SBN, that’s some crazy frequency increases.

Overall though a quiet week.

Does anyone have record of how many times AA has been in and out of ORD-DLH since deregulation?

JetSuiteX, who doesn't report to the OAG, announced it will add RNO to BUR and LAS effective May 8. This is eight new routes for them so far this year. Seem to making a hub at BUR.

B6 is extending seasonal BOS-SMF service to operate 4x/wk from Labor Day through 10/23. Historically this service has ended at Labor Day.

Dominion301 wrote:

Odd that AA’s JFK adds are just for April. PANYNJ “use ‘em or lose ‘em ultimatum I wonder.

For UA:
-IAD-SRQ, maybe UA finally here the “it’s not fair” cries that SRQ had gained year-round IAD service, while MIA doesn’t, lol.
-ORD-SBN, that’s some crazy frequency increases.

Overall though a quiet week.

That's exactly what it is. A slot squat. JFK-RIC 4x is insane.

IPL-LAX is a Mokulele route, just coming under Southern Express' code, I guess.
DDC-DEN is going to SkyWest early March. All Boutique flights probably should be zero'd out, not just the one month.

Good I don’t care what they use them for...but this period of dormancy has been bull

The port authority is listening to complaints from other airlines and they are looking at press releases where American is celebrating 700 flights in Charlotte, and they are telling AA to use them or lose them imo

This should’ve happened a year ago

Thanks, as always, for the effort to compile & share this stuff, enilria!

enilria wrote:

Why temp suspension?
*4B DDC-DEN MAR 3>0[3] APR 3>0.1[3] MAY 3>0.3[3] JUN 3>0.1[3] JUL 3>1.7[3] AUG 3>1.5[3]

Skywest took over Dodge City earlier this month with CRJ's -- appears to be a filing error as Boutique is done there.

enilria wrote:

*9X IPL-LAX MAY 0.3>3[3] JUN 0>3[0] JUL 0>3[0] AUG 0>3[0] SEP 0>3[0] OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0]

This is another EAS market, one flown by Southern Express Express subsidiary Mokulele. That it shows up new this week under Southern's 9X code is likely an error.

enilria wrote:

10RTs?
*UA ORD-SBN AUG 7>8[4] SEP 7>10[5] OCT 7>10[5] NOV 7>10[5]

Same with ATW-ORD, up from 5x last year. The schedule has been creeping upward this summer into 6, 7, 8 per day but now 10 for fall. Quite a jump.

enilria wrote:

UA ATW-ORD AUG 8>9[5] SEP 8>10[5] OCT 8>10[5] NOV 8>10[5]

AA PHL-XNA MAY 0.9>0.0[0]
Wierd, cut May completely but still there in June and onward.

Dominion301 wrote:

Odd that AA’s JFK adds are just for April. PANYNJ “use ‘em or lose ‘em” ultimatum I wonder?

For UA:
-IAD-SRQ, maybe UA finally here the “it’s not fair” cries that SRQ had gained year-round IAD service, while MIA doesn’t, lol.
-ORD-SBN, that’s some crazy frequency increases.

Overall though a quiet week.

Seems like the ORD-SBN increase is legit. I don’t think UA has ever had this much service from ORD-SBN even in the ATP days of UFS. Would have been nice to see SBN-DEN instead of more ORD.

Chuska wrote:

Does anyone have record of how many times AA has been in and out of ORD-DLH since deregulation?

I don't know, but AA and UA splitting the CHI O&D market probably doesn't do them a favor. AA/UA at ORD adds a few destinations not available from MSP by DL but not too many. Then DL to MSP wins on frequency to the hub, 6X on a June Monday to MSP vs. 4X to ORD by UA.

SEA-LHR market is heating up both AA and now BA will add additional flights on their own metal in 2020. It is interesting that 2 Oneworld partners are increasing capacity on this route. I believe AA announced they would use a 77E do we know what aircraft type BA will use?

Hopefully all of this additional capacity will equal cheaper fares for people in the Pacific Northwest.

TTailedTiger wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

That's exactly what it is. A slot squat. JFK-RIC 4x is insane.

Especially when DL is already flying the route 4x daily for $78 each way. They might as well use the old US LGA slot squatting strategy of 17x daily on PHL-JFK and save a bit of fuel.

Good sunday morning enilria

enilria wrote:

Appears AA suddenly is covering some of their JFK slots. Interesting...
*AA BWI-JFK APR 1.0>2[1.0]
*AA JFK-PHL APR 0>3[1.0] MAY 0>0.4[0.1]
AA JFK-PIT APR 1.0>1.8[0.0]
AA JFK-PUJ AUG 0.5>0[1.0] SEP 0.3>0[0.1]
*AA JFK-RIC APR 1.2>4[0]

Looks like PUJ is seasonal now. Let's see how long they'd be willing to squat 8 slots on these JFK connection routes. Those JFK 44 seater options have to be really low in margins. I'd imagine they have to actually use slots more than 1 month to not lose them.

B6 BOS-EWR MAY 7>6[4]
B6 BOS-FLL MAY 5>4[6]
B6 BOS-JFK MAY 6>7[6]
B6 BUF-JFK MAY 5>6[5]
B6 FLL-RIC MAY 1.9>1.0[1.7]
B6 JFK-KIN MAY 3>4[3]
B6 JFK-RDU MAY 2>3[2]
B6 JFK-STI MAY 5>6[6]
B6 MCO-PSE MAY 2.0>1.0[2.0]

alright, 5 more slots used by B6 in May. Are they so short on aircraft/pilots that they need to continue to cut to add? Not sure, but they can easily go to 7x to BUF, 8-9x to BOS, 4x to RDU and add frequencies to Florida if they need to sit on more slots. And unlike AA, they actually could conceivably make money with these additional flights.

CX BOS-HKG MAR 0.7>0.4[1.0]
CX HKG-LAX MAR 1.9>1.4[3]
CX HKG-ORD MAR 0.6>0.4[1.0]
CX HKG-SFO MAR 1.8>1.1[3]

CZ CAN-JFK APR 1.0>0.6[1.4] MAY 1.0>0.6[1.4]

this is sad to see. SQ is cutting frequencies to other markets too. I'd be shocked if KE/OZ keeps their current frequency to North America as the number of cases keep increasing there.

If AA can't find anything more profitable than RIC and PHL to fly to from JFK then why don't they just give the slots back? Why lose money? AA is an extremely distant third at JFK so it's not like they have any market share to defend.

TTailedTiger wrote:

If AA can't find anything more profitable than RIC and PHL to fly to from JFK then why don't they just give the slots back? Why lose money? AA is an extremely distant third at JFK so it's not like they have any market share to defend.

AA decreases flights at JFK, Anetters complain. AA adds some frequency on some JFK flights, Anetters complain. .......


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

TTailedTiger wrote:

If AA can't find anything more profitable than RIC and PHL to fly to from JFK then why don't they just give the slots back? Why lose money? AA is an extremely distant third at JFK so it's not like they have any market share to defend.

Logical guess would be they plan to bring back/do something more profitable once the MAX is eventually back... but until then, they need to squat on the slots at a minimal cost.

Too bad about AA at DLH. Maybe they should have tried DFW they seem to have a good track record at flying to smaller cities in the plains and upper Midwest

CIDFlyer wrote:

Too bad about AA at DLH. Maybe they should have tried DFW they seem to have a good track record at flying to smaller cities in the plains and upper Midwest

I can't imagine there's much DLH-DFW O&D. I don't think the non-stops out of DFW but not ORD would have a lot of O&D from DLH, either. It's not like you're going to get 30 people a day flying DLH-DFW-SJD!

jayunited wrote:

SEA-LHR market is heating up both AA and now BA will add additional flights on their own metal in 2020. It is interesting that 2 Oneworld partners are increasing capacity on this route. I believe AA announced they would use a 77E do we know what aircraft type BA will use?

Hopefully all of this additional capacity will equal cheaper fares for people in the Pacific Northwest.

Virgin is also adding flights on the SEA-LHR route.

enilria wrote:

AA ABE-PHL MAY 3>2.0[3]
AA AVL-PHL MAY 2.0>1.0[1.0]
AA CHA-PHL MAY 1.0>0[0.9]
AA ITH-PHL JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3]
*AA JFK-PHL APR 0>3[1.0] MAY 0>0.4[0.1]
AA JFK-PIT APR 1.0>1.8[0.0]
*AA JFK-RIC APR 1.2>4[0]
AA PHL-SCE MAY 4>3[4]
AA PHL-XNA MAY 0.9>0.0[0]

*UA ORD-SBN AUG 7>8[4] SEP 7>10[5] OCT 7>10[5] NOV 7>10[5]

Thank you again for your continuing public service. Your Sunday morning followers are very appreciative.

Piedmont has been showing signs of moving frequencies away from small markets into larger ones that could support a larger gauge. The timing appears a little bit off, but are some of these new JFK frequencies funded by piedmont changes? If not directly, then downgauging something else to free up the aircraft for JFK?

The SBN frequencies are off the charts for a small market. The period show is during football season, but the extra lift appears too much even for that.

chepos wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

If AA can't find anything more profitable than RIC and PHL to fly to from JFK then why don't they just give the slots back? Why lose money? AA is an extremely distant third at JFK so it's not like they have any market share to defend.

AA decreases flights at JFK, Anetters complain. AA adds some frequency on some JFK flights, Anetters complain. .......


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm not the one complaining (I honestly don't care) but I think it's obvious people want AA to increase JFK service to actual competitive markets

TTailedTiger wrote:

That's exactly what it is. A slot squat. JFK-RIC 4x is insane.

It's notable that the stuff they added back is short-haul on small airplanes. I.E. the cheapest way to block slots

jfklganyc wrote:

Good I don’t care what they use them for...but this period of dormancy has been bull

The port authority is listening to complaints from other airlines and they are looking at press releases where American is celebrating 700 flights in Charlotte, and they are telling AA to use them or lose them imo

This should’ve happened a year ago

Yup! I hope this thread had something to do with it. A lot of airline and DOT people read this thread.

knope2001 wrote:

Thanks, as always, for the effort to compile & share this stuff, enilria!

knope2001 wrote:

enilria wrote:
*9X IPL-LAX MAY 0.3>3[3] JUN 0>3[0] JUL 0>3[0] AUG 0>3[0] SEP 0>3[0] OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0]
Actually I think it is just a schedule extension. I probably should not have put a * on it.

knope2001 wrote:

Same with ATW-ORD, up from 5x last year. The schedule has been creeping upward this summer into 6, 7, 8 per day but now 10 for fall. Quite a jump.

This is another EAS market, one flown by Southern Express Express subsidiary Mokulele. That it shows up new this week under Southern's 9X code is likely an error.

jetskipper wrote:

Seems like the ORD-SBN increase is legit. I don’t think UA has ever had this much service from ORD-SBN even in the ATP days of UFS. Would have been nice to see SBN-DEN instead of more ORD.

I actually checked the equipment expecting to see BUS ala ABE-EWR.

tphuang wrote:

Good sunday morning enilria

Same back at ya

tphuang wrote:

Looks like PUJ is seasonal now.

I'm actually shocked Americans' collective memory is long enough that PUJ hasn't yet recovered. CUN is back gangbusters and gangs are killing people in record numbers.

tphuang wrote:

Are they so short on aircraft/pilots that they need to continue to cut to add?

Part of the JFK slot review no doubt

TTailedTiger wrote:

If AA can't find anything more profitable than RIC and PHL to fly to from JFK then why don't they just give the slots back? Why lose money? AA is an extremely distant third at JFK so it's not like they have any market share to defend.

The theory I've heard is that they think in 10 years they will be strong enough to make a run at NYC, but now they have other things to deal with like DL in MIA. They could lease the slots out, though.

LotsaRunway wrote:

Thank you again for your continuing public service. Your Sunday morning followers are very appreciative.

Dominion301 wrote:

For UA:
-IAD-SRQ, maybe UA finally here the “it’s not fair” cries that SRQ had gained year-round IAD service, while MIA doesn’t, lol.

See...I thought I remember hearing this was year round. Press release from SRQ at the time didn't say that. Hopefully, it returns in the fall.

enilria wrote:

AA DFW-MAD NOV 2>1.6[1.4]

Thanks as always!

Looks like DFW-MAD is going from 11 weekly to 12 weekly during the off-season, nice to see that.

Taking a look at tomorrow's JFK schedule, AA is at 74 flights. Even if they add 8 flights to that, they are still probably not using 40 slots. So at some point, they do need to make a decision. And they'd need to sustain it for a year for this complaint to go away.

enilria wrote:

The theory I've heard is that they think in 10 years they will be strong enough to make a run at NYC, but now they have other things to deal with like DL in MIA. They could lease the slots out, though.

I can't believe people are actually thinking that way. The reason they lost out to DL is due to having much fewer slots. None of that will change in 10 years unless slot goes away. And if the slot goes away, it will be pretty soon. And AA is not exactly in a position to capitalize on that. And in 10 years, their ff base are all going to other airlines.

Dominion301 wrote:

Odd that AA’s JFK adds are just for April. PANYNJ “use ‘em or lose ‘em” ultimatum I wonder?

For UA:
-IAD-SRQ, maybe UA finally here the “it’s not fair” cries that SRQ had gained year-round IAD service, while MIA doesn’t, lol.
-ORD-SBN, that’s some crazy frequency increases.

Overall though a quiet week.

im guessing the ORD-SBD flights coincide with Notre Dames football Schedule? just a guess

tphuang wrote:

Taking a look at tomorrow's JFK schedule, AA is at 74 flights. Even if they add 8 flights to that, they are still probably not using 40 slots. So at some point, they do need to make a decision. And they'd need to sustain it for a year for this complaint to go away.

enilria wrote:

The theory I've heard is that they think in 10 years they will be strong enough to make a run at NYC, but now they have other things to deal with like DL in MIA. They could lease the slots out, though.

I can't believe people are actually thinking that way. The reason they lost out to DL is due to having much fewer slots. None of that will change in 10 years unless slot goes away. And if the slot goes away, it will be pretty soon. And AA is not exactly in a position to capitalize on that. And in 10 years, their ff base are all going to other airlines.

If they want to slot squat, they can just add more ORD and DFW flights. B6 is down to 2 a day and DL is flying RJs to ORD. With UA not at JFK AA could potentially be a win for them.

evank516 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Taking a look at tomorrow's JFK schedule, AA is at 74 flights. Even if they add 8 flights to that, they are still probably not using 40 slots. So at some point, they do need to make a decision. And they'd need to sustain it for a year for this complaint to go away.

enilria wrote:

The theory I've heard is that they think in 10 years they will be strong enough to make a run at NYC, but now they have other things to deal with like DL in MIA. They could lease the slots out, though.

I can't believe people are actually thinking that way. The reason they lost out to DL is due to having much fewer slots. None of that will change in 10 years unless slot goes away. And if the slot goes away, it will be pretty soon. And AA is not exactly in a position to capitalize on that. And in 10 years, their ff base are all going to other airlines.

If they want to slot squat, they can just add more ORD and DFW flights. B6 is down to 2 a day and DL is flying RJs to ORD. With UA not at JFK AA could potentially be a win for them.

Except the reason service is so low on this route is because local passengers aren't going to fly ORD-JFK over ORD-LGA or MDW-LGA. The only reason this route exists on B6 and DL are to feed the hub at JFK and in AA's case since they have their own hub at ORD there's no reason really to be flying Chicago based flyers to JFK and beyond vs. even flying them ORD-LHR and letting BA handle the rest.

Slot squatting to RIC and the like will definitely not make money but will lose the least amount of money.

evank516 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Taking a look at tomorrow's JFK schedule, AA is at 74 flights. Even if they add 8 flights to that, they are still probably not using 40 slots. So at some point, they do need to make a decision. And they'd need to sustain it for a year for this complaint to go away.

enilria wrote:

The theory I've heard is that they think in 10 years they will be strong enough to make a run at NYC, but now they have other things to deal with like DL in MIA. They could lease the slots out, though.

I can't believe people are actually thinking that way. The reason they lost out to DL is due to having much fewer slots. None of that will change in 10 years unless slot goes away. And if the slot goes away, it will be pretty soon. And AA is not exactly in a position to capitalize on that. And in 10 years, their ff base are all going to other airlines.

If they want to slot squat, they can just add more ORD and DFW flights. B6 is down to 2 a day and DL is flying RJs to ORD. With UA not at JFK AA could potentially be a win for them.

To add on to this, maybe another DFW could work but then they'd risk cannibalizing what is likely profitable at LGA for a marginal at best JFK-DFW, so for now 1x JFK-ORD and 1x JFK-DFW is probably enough. Maybe JFK-SEA could return given AS' entry into oneworld?

NYCVIE wrote:

evank516 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Taking a look at tomorrow's JFK schedule, AA is at 74 flights. Even if they add 8 flights to that, they are still probably not using 40 slots. So at some point, they do need to make a decision. And they'd need to sustain it for a year for this complaint to go away.

I can't believe people are actually thinking that way. The reason they lost out to DL is due to having much fewer slots. None of that will change in 10 years unless slot goes away. And if the slot goes away, it will be pretty soon. And AA is not exactly in a position to capitalize on that. And in 10 years, their ff base are all going to other airlines.

If they want to slot squat, they can just add more ORD and DFW flights. B6 is down to 2 a day and DL is flying RJs to ORD. With UA not at JFK AA could potentially be a win for them.

To add on to this, maybe another DFW could work but then they'd risk cannibalizing what is likely profitable at LGA for a marginal at best JFK-DFW, so for now 1x JFK-ORD and 1x JFK-DFW is probably enough. Maybe JFK-SEA could return given AS' entry into oneworld?

Unlikely, JFK sea was losing so much money for them. San and Las are likely gone too this year. Can't imagine them coming back to what they were after such a long layoff.

airtrantpa wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

Odd that AA’s JFK adds are just for April. PANYNJ “use ‘em or lose ‘em” ultimatum I wonder?

For UA:
-IAD-SRQ, maybe UA finally here the “it’s not fair” cries that SRQ had gained year-round IAD service, while MIA doesn’t, lol.
-ORD-SBN, that’s some crazy frequency increases.

Overall though a quiet week.

im guessing the ORD-SBD flights coincide with Notre Dames football Schedule? just a guess

I thought the same thing, but checked a few dates in the middle of the week and non-game weekends and there are still 10 scheduled flights a day with one flight on a E-175. The flights aren’t overly full now, so not sure what they are trying here.

TTailedTiger wrote:

If AA can't find anything more profitable than RIC and PHL to fly to from JFK then why don't they just give the slots back? Why lose money? AA is an extremely distant third at JFK so it's not like they have any market share to defend.

Because they are afraid someone like UA might get them and start LAX or SFO.

I'm genuinely surprised that UA hasn't added DEN-SBN considering all the growth that has happened at the DEN hub of late.

TTailedTiger wrote:

If AA can't find anything more profitable than RIC and PHL to fly to from JFK then why don't they just give the slots back? Why lose money? AA is an extremely distant third at JFK so it's not like they have any market share to defend.

If you're forced to use slots without the concern for making money, might as well retaliate against a competitor and make sure they don't make money on the route either.

MSPNWA wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

If AA can't find anything more profitable than RIC and PHL to fly to from JFK then why don't they just give the slots back? Why lose money? AA is an extremely distant third at JFK so it's not like they have any market share to defend.

If you're forced to use slots without the concern for making money, might as well retaliate against a competitor and make sure they don't make money on the route either.

Thank goodness it’s AA doing this and not DL, you would have a very different opinion on this strategy then.

Jeremy

NYCVIE wrote:

evank516 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Taking a look at tomorrow's JFK schedule, AA is at 74 flights. Even if they add 8 flights to that, they are still probably not using 40 slots. So at some point, they do need to make a decision. And they'd need to sustain it for a year for this complaint to go away.

I can't believe people are actually thinking that way. The reason they lost out to DL is due to having much fewer slots. None of that will change in 10 years unless slot goes away. And if the slot goes away, it will be pretty soon. And AA is not exactly in a position to capitalize on that. And in 10 years, their ff base are all going to other airlines.

If they want to slot squat, they can just add more ORD and DFW flights. B6 is down to 2 a day and DL is flying RJs to ORD. With UA not at JFK AA could potentially be a win for them.

To add on to this, maybe another DFW could work but then they'd risk cannibalizing what is likely profitable at LGA for a marginal at best JFK-DFW, so for now 1x JFK-ORD and 1x JFK-DFW is probably enough. Maybe JFK-SEA could return given AS' entry into oneworld?

ORD-JFK on AA is scheduled to increase to 4 a day in June all with 738s. We’ll have to wait and see if they stick with that.
The most flights on this route the past several years that I can recall, has been twice a day so quite an increase if it sticks.

airtrantpa wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

Odd that AA’s JFK adds are just for April. PANYNJ “use ‘em or lose ‘em” ultimatum I wonder?

For UA:
-IAD-SRQ, maybe UA finally here the “it’s not fair” cries that SRQ had gained year-round IAD service, while MIA doesn’t, lol.
-ORD-SBN, that’s some crazy frequency increases.

Overall though a quiet week.

im guessing the ORD-SBD flights coincide with Notre Dames football Schedule? just a guess

It’s not just SBN, ATW also increases to 10 flights a day, even into Nov. ATW is Air Wisconsin’S HQ and I believe a MX base as well. Doesn’t Skywest have a MX base in SBN? Maybe the increases are just a way to get more aircraft to the base? Still seems excessive even if that is part of the reason though, but some people at UA must think there’s a good reason to add these flights.

Aa doesn't run more on JFK ord because it's yields are 10% less than ewr and lga.

Ishrion wrote:

Thanks as always!

tphuang wrote:

Taking a look at tomorrow's JFK schedule, AA is at 74 flights. Even if they add 8 flights to that, they are still probably not using 40 slots. So at some point, they do need to make a decision. And they'd need to sustain it for a year for this complaint to go away.

enilria wrote:

The theory I've heard is that they think in 10 years they will be strong enough to make a run at NYC, but now they have other things to deal with like DL in MIA. They could lease the slots out, though.

I can't believe people are actually thinking that way. The reason they lost out to DL is due to having much fewer slots. None of that will change in 10 years unless slot goes away. And if the slot goes away, it will be pretty soon. And AA is not exactly in a position to capitalize on that. And in 10 years, their ff base are all going to other airlines.

I don't disagree, but if not then WTFH are they doing? The way they are going they are both losing their market position and not getting to sell the asset either. This all harkens back to the JFK-PHL debate at the time of the merger. I remember saying then that "PHL banks money and JFK is a bloodbath, how could you choose JFK over PHL"? Well it happened as I imagined it seems.

evank516 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Taking a look at tomorrow's JFK schedule, AA is at 74 flights. Even if they add 8 flights to that, they are still probably not using 40 slots. So at some point, they do need to make a decision. And they'd need to sustain it for a year for this complaint to go away.

enilria wrote:

The theory I've heard is that they think in 10 years they will be strong enough to make a run at NYC, but now they have other things to deal with like DL in MIA. They could lease the slots out, though.

I can't believe people are actually thinking that way. The reason they lost out to DL is due to having much fewer slots. None of that will change in 10 years unless slot goes away. And if the slot goes away, it will be pretty soon. And AA is not exactly in a position to capitalize on that. And in 10 years, their ff base are all going to other airlines.

If they want to slot squat, they can just add more ORD and DFW flights. B6 is down to 2 a day and DL is flying RJs to ORD. With UA not at JFK AA could potentially be a win for them.

This is the same group of people that flew LGA-PHL with 15 rts.

tphuang wrote:

NYCVIE wrote:

evank516 wrote:

If they want to slot squat, they can just add more ORD and DFW flights. B6 is down to 2 a day and DL is flying RJs to ORD. With UA not at JFK AA could potentially be a win for them.

To add on to this, maybe another DFW could work but then they'd risk cannibalizing what is likely profitable at LGA for a marginal at best JFK-DFW, so for now 1x JFK-ORD and 1x JFK-DFW is probably enough. Maybe JFK-SEA could return given AS' entry into oneworld?

Unlikely, JFK sea was losing so much money for them. San and Las are likely gone too this year. Can't imagine them coming back to what they were after such a long layoff.

To me, not only are they wasting slots and possibly not getting to sell them, they are totally using the MAX to bait and switch bookings on routes like SAN-JFK. They know this route isn't going to be flown again, but they take bookings and then reaccom to a connect. Super sketchy. Why not publish JFK-BOM double daily and reaccom everybody 60 days out? Slippery slope...

GSP psgr wrote:

I'm genuinely surprised that UA hasn't added DEN-SBN considering all the growth that has happened at the DEN hub of late.

This is being worked on by the SBN airport. The market can support twice daily 70 seater aircraft on the route or once daily Airbus A319 mainline service as F9 (Before they went to the ULCC model) carried an average of 118 passengers per flight on a 133 seat A319. Market is there especially for better connections than ORD.

The increase in SBN-ORD flights appear to start before football season although UA has not released their scheduled past August 23rd.

Planeboy17 wrote:

airtrantpa wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

Odd that AA’s JFK adds are just for April. PANYNJ “use ‘em or lose ‘em” ultimatum I wonder?

For UA:
-IAD-SRQ, maybe UA finally here the “it’s not fair” cries that SRQ had gained year-round IAD service, while MIA doesn’t, lol.
-ORD-SBN, that’s some crazy frequency increases.

Overall though a quiet week.

im guessing the ORD-SBD flights coincide with Notre Dames football Schedule? just a guess

It’s not just SBN, ATW also increases to 10 flights a day, even into Nov. ATW is Air Wisconsin’S HQ and I believe a MX base as well. Doesn’t Skywest have a MX base in SBN? Maybe the increases are just a way to get more aircraft to the base? Still seems excessive even if that is part of the reason though, but some people at UA must think there’s a good reason to add these flights.

OO has a maintenance base at SBN that can work on all their CRJ 200/700 and 900 aircraft. The increase in SBN-ORD flights appear to begin in August and while most are operated by 50 seaters, Skywest is operating one flight with an E175. It also appears that the increase has nothing to do with Notre Dame Football. Enplanements were up 15% or so last year. UA hasn't officially released their schedule past August so I cannot comment on the return of the twice daily SBN-EWR flights that coincide with the Notre Dame Football season.

SBN-DEN with UA is a work in progress. With the Airport's Project Propel initiative, The addition of AA flights to CLT and DFW and rumored PHL which resulted in SBN topping FWA in enplanments and deplanments with a total count of over 800,000 passengers last year (A record year), I can see why UA would add some more flights. The airport also is working with UA for a flight to IAD that would replace the EWR east coast connections that resulted when UA shifted RJ connecting hubs.

On the Delta front I do not know yet if Delta will increase seats out of SBN in the ATL market. Possibly a morning CRJ900 or B717 aircraft to accommodate increased demand.

Both SBN and MYR are working with Allegiant for seasonal SBN MYR flights. Also the airport is working on seasonal SBN-CUN flights as they have the data to support those flights and US Customs is in place to handle them.

WaywardMemphian wrote:

AA PHL-XNA MAY 0.9>0.0[0]
Wierd, cut May completely but still there in June and onward.

I wonder if there's a temporary shortage of a few lines of RJ flying at PHL during May... PHL-XNA/MLB are E75 markets, and PHL-CHA/SCE/ABE/AVP/ITH are all 50-seater markets that are showing capacity reductions for May only.

enilria wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

If AA can't find anything more profitable than RIC and PHL to fly to from JFK then why don't they just give the slots back? Why lose money? AA is an extremely distant third at JFK so it's not like they have any market share to defend.

The theory I've heard is that they think in 10 years they will be strong enough to make a run at NYC, but now they have other things to deal with like DL in MIA. They could lease the slots out, though.

That makes the most sense of anything I've heard, although hopefully in a slightly shorter timeframe. In 5-10 years AA will have A321-200XLRs in the fleet and a bunch more 787s, which might make long haul routes possible out of JFK that AA hasn't found viable with 767s and 777s (think a return to DUB, FRA, ZRH, 2nd daily CDG, etc. to cater to business travelers). By then the terminal build-out with 5 additional widebody gates will also be complete, BA will have moved in, and the RJ gates will be gone. At that time I think AA will need to find places they can profitably send mainline equipment from JFK in order to continue using their slots and avoid having them go to a competitor like UA who could mess with their all-important JFK-LAX/SFO routes. Of course, if slots do go away, their strategy could change.

AA's slot portfolio in NYC is certainly not going to allow them to match DL or UA's network, but at the same time they do have ample slots to be able to fly a network that is really appealing to business travelers (especially when including BA, JL, and CX). Time will tell whether they're up to the challenge.

tphuang wrote:

NYCVIE wrote:

evank516 wrote:

If they want to slot squat, they can just add more ORD and DFW flights. B6 is down to 2 a day and DL is flying RJs to ORD. With UA not at JFK AA could potentially be a win for them.

To add on to this, maybe another DFW could work but then they'd risk cannibalizing what is likely profitable at LGA for a marginal at best JFK-DFW, so for now 1x JFK-ORD and 1x JFK-DFW is probably enough. Maybe JFK-SEA could return given AS' entry into oneworld?

Unlikely, JFK sea was losing so much money for them. San and Las are likely gone too this year. Can't imagine them coming back to what they were after such a long layoff.

AS entry into oneworld means AA does not really need to operate JFK-SEA or JFK-SAN on its own metal down the road, though it is a head scratcher that AA can't make either work even with the MAX groundings resulting in 738s needed for other markets. NYC to LAS is saturated. AA's focus in NYC is more than ever what caters to business travelers, its FF base, and what it has corporate contract wise, which in spite of not having the scale of DL or UA in the market, remains quite strong.

Planeboy17 wrote:

It’s not just SBN, ATW also increases to 10 flights a day, even into Nov. ATW is Air Wisconsin’S HQ and I believe a MX base as well. Doesn’t Skywest have a MX base in SBN? Maybe the increases are just a way to get more aircraft to the base? Still seems excessive even if that is part of the reason though, but some people at UA must think there’s a good reason to add these flights.

ATW is indeed a MX base and their HQ. Air Wisconsin already has 4 overnight aircraft in ATW with the current schedule of six total daily Appleton departures -- 1 RON to DEN and 3 (of 5 total) ORD flights are RON as well. As they ramp up from 5x ORD to 10X ORD by fall they still have 4 RON in ATW. It looks like they RON 4 aircraft in all four MX bases -- ATW, CAE, DAY and MKE. Only CAE and MKE are also crew bases so running more turns through ATW doesn't rotate crews. The added turns during the day on ORD-ATW-ORD seem to be demand-based.

FSDan wrote:

enilria wrote:

TTailedTiger wrote:

If AA can't find anything more profitable than RIC and PHL to fly to from JFK then why don't they just give the slots back? Why lose money? AA is an extremely distant third at JFK so it's not like they have any market share to defend.

The theory I've heard is that they think in 10 years they will be strong enough to make a run at NYC, but now they have other things to deal with like DL in MIA. They could lease the slots out, though.

That makes the most sense of anything I've heard, although hopefully in a slightly shorter timeframe. In 5-10 years AA will have A321-200XLRs in the fleet and a bunch more 787s, which might make long haul routes possible out of JFK that AA hasn't found viable with 767s and 777s (think a return to DUB, FRA, ZRH, 2nd daily CDG, etc. to cater to business travelers). By then the terminal build-out with 5 additional widebody gates will also be complete, BA will have moved in, and the RJ gates will be gone. At that time I think AA will need to find places they can profitably send mainline equipment from JFK in order to continue using their slots and avoid having them go to a competitor like UA who could mess with their all-important JFK-LAX/SFO routes. Of course, if slots do go away, their strategy could change.

AA's slot portfolio in NYC is certainly not going to allow them to match DL or UA's network, but at the same time they do have ample slots to be able to fly a network that is really appealing to business travelers (especially when including BA, JL, and CX). Time will tell whether they're up to the challenge.

Great points with the fleet and terminal. But still not sure why not lease them to B6 for X years?

enilria wrote:

FSDan wrote:

enilria wrote:

The theory I've heard is that they think in 10 years they will be strong enough to make a run at NYC, but now they have other things to deal with like DL in MIA. They could lease the slots out, though.

That makes the most sense of anything I've heard, although hopefully in a slightly shorter timeframe. In 5-10 years AA will have A321-200XLRs in the fleet and a bunch more 787s, which might make long haul routes possible out of JFK that AA hasn't found viable with 767s and 777s (think a return to DUB, FRA, ZRH, 2nd daily CDG, etc. to cater to business travelers). By then the terminal build-out with 5 additional widebody gates will also be complete, BA will have moved in, and the RJ gates will be gone. At that time I think AA will need to find places they can profitably send mainline equipment from JFK in order to continue using their slots and avoid having them go to a competitor like UA who could mess with their all-important JFK-LAX/SFO routes. Of course, if slots do go away, their strategy could change.

AA's slot portfolio in NYC is certainly not going to allow them to match DL or UA's network, but at the same time they do have ample slots to be able to fly a network that is really appealing to business travelers (especially when including BA, JL, and CX). Time will tell whether they're up to the challenge.

Great points with the fleet and terminal. But still not sure why not lease them to B6 for X years?

People have to stop acting like A321XLR will somehow give AA an edge in TATL again. At least B6 and UA will already be flying A321LR/XLR from NYC at that time and both carriers are a lot stronger than AA. What advantage will AA really have? AA right now is even cutting back on JFK-LAX. What ff is left when you ignore them for 5 to 10 years?

And I'd be shocked if UA isn't back in JFK in the next 5 years.

Their currents lot portfolio at JFK didn't allow them to succeed when they had more ff in NYC than DL. How is it going to change if they have much fewer ff in NYC than DL? They should work to preserve the performance of LGA, which was already estimated to be their least profitable hub.