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tiptoe42
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:27 am

Re: Alaska future in Portland 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:26 pm

SANFan wrote:
The OAG thread this morning had over 60 changes for AS coming this summer and fall; I believe I counted 19 changes to PDX routes -- that's pretty close to 1/3 of those total changes. They were pretty evenly split with about 10 increases in frequency and about 10 decreases in frequency. Some are seasonal of course but some may or may not be.

It looks to me like AS continues to search for their 'happy place' at their second largest hub as routes and capacity seem to be constantly added and subtracted.

Regarding the much sought after (on A.net at least) route to south Florida, it seems to me that there are just too many cx around that serve the 3 cities involved -- PDX, FLL and MIA -- for not even one of them to have jumped into that void, including (especially) AS. There must be a good reason for everyone to be saying, "no thanks" and using their resources elsewhere. I know PDX went thru the same thing for years with MCO and they finally got it and they will get south Florida too, someday.

I'm as anxious as everyone else to see that infamous "5-year plan" of AS to be rolled out further, and I don't think we'll have to wait all that long for it to happen. I'm sure there will be some great things for PDX as there is no doubt that AS and PDX will grow together in the future. Whether it will be a total, massive, game changer for the airline or the airport in Portland, or just some new routes added at PDX, I'm sure it will make lots of folks here on A.net happy!

In the meantime, I think AS is trying to get to that "happy place" of growing their presence at PDX while keeping their operation there as profitable as possible.

bb


Pretty sure the “5 year plan” has already been changed if not scrapped entirely by the corona virus fears.
 
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EA CO AS
Posts: 15763
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2001 8:54 am

Re: Alaska future in Portland 2020

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:43 pm

tiptoe42 wrote:
Pretty sure the “5 year plan” has already been changed if not scrapped entirely by the corona virus fears.



No, you generally don’t change a long term plan based on short term conditions, although like any business plan it will be reassessed if market conditions truly warrant.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
pdxav8r
Posts: 256
Joined: Mon Jun 10, 2013 3:15 am

Re: Alaska future in Portland 2020

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:23 am

EA CO AS wrote:
tiptoe42 wrote:
Pretty sure the “5 year plan” has already been changed if not scrapped entirely by the corona virus fears.



No, you generally don’t change a long term plan based on short term conditions, although like any business plan it will be reassessed if market conditions truly warrant.


Was this ‘5-year plan’ concocted before or after AS joining OW?
 
n7371f
Posts: 1850
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: Alaska future in Portland 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:59 am

Another one? Lost count.

For PDX sake I hope AS actually shows some cajones and goes with a full throttle expansion plan. Hell they'll basically have the entire C once the buildouts are done. But given a decade of proclamations, events for 75k MVPs with SEA big wigs and then little crud adds like STL on a E75 the lasts for 9 months, I'll believe it when I see it. The last big tease ended up being priority boarding for soccer fans wearing jerseys. The PDX market is there. Otherwise don't be surprised to see DL add more opportunist stuff like LAS on low risk E75's to places like GEG, SJC, SAN.

EA CO AS wrote:
AS has a plan for PDX. I can’t elaborate further right now, but expect to hear more down the line.
 
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RWA380
Posts: 5746
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Re: Alaska future in Portland 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:28 am

IMHO, will not cede even 1% marketshare in Portland, they will add as needed to retain the lions share of the market. They won't need to have a large buildup quickly, it will come more slowly & measured as AAG has been for a long time. AS does not hesitate to suspend or cut routes that don't add enough to the bottom line. I can all but guarantee Portland won't become a huge overflow connecting hub, but AS will likely be the first to jump in any PDX market where the PDEW warrants.
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EA CO AS
Posts: 15763
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2001 8:54 am

Re: Alaska future in Portland 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:35 am

n7371f wrote:
Another one? Lost count.


Believe it or not, it's possible for a plan to have multiple elements to it. Don't worry, you'll all find out when the time is right.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
Chugach
Posts: 1341
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2004 10:18 am

Re: Alaska future in Portland 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:09 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
n7371f wrote:
Another one? Lost count.


Believe it or not, it's possible for a plan to have multiple elements to it. Don't worry, you'll all find out when the time is right.


As a Portland-based 75K, I appreciate your insights and don’t doubt AS has a plan for PDX. Keep it coming.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
Posts: 152
Joined: Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: Alaska future in Portland 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:12 pm

PDXexpress wrote:
continuous stagnant growth


can you define continuous stagnant growth? the terms seem mutually exclusive...
learning never stops...

FischAutoTechGarten is the full handle and it reflects my interest. It's abbreviated to fit A.net short usernames.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 5430
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: Alaska future in Portland 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:22 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
Believe it or not, it's possible for a plan to have multiple elements to it. Don't worry, you'll all find out when the time is right.

RWA380 wrote:
IMHO, [AS] will not cede even 1% marketshare in Portland, they will add as needed to retain the lions share of the market. They won't need to have a large buildup quickly, it will come more slowly & measured as AAG has been for a long time. AS does not hesitate to suspend or cut routes that don't add enough to the bottom line. I can all but guarantee Portland won't become a huge overflow connecting hub, but AS will likely be the first to jump in any PDX market where the PDEW warrants.

It's great to see level-headed, understandable, and honest posts such as these, particularly regarding PDX. I've come to expect such from these two guys and it is very much appreciated -- keep up the great work!

bb
 
alasizon
Posts: 2623
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: Alaska future in Portland 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:48 pm

RWA380 wrote:
IMHO, will not cede even 1% marketshare in Portland, they will add as needed to retain the lions share of the market. They won't need to have a large buildup quickly, it will come more slowly & measured as AAG has been for a long time. AS does not hesitate to suspend or cut routes that don't add enough to the bottom line. I can all but guarantee Portland won't become a huge overflow connecting hub, but AS will likely be the first to jump in any PDX market where the PDEW warrants.


One of the big pieces with PDX is that it doesn't need to be giant, it is mostly about serving Oregon as a whole and the destinations they can sustain. Sure there are connections but AS does just fine adding what it thinks will be most viable and the best fit for their network.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
bobsmith99
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:02 am

Re: Alaska future in Portland 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:40 pm

alasizon wrote:
RWA380 wrote:
IMHO, will not cede even 1% marketshare in Portland, they will add as needed to retain the lions share of the market. They won't need to have a large buildup quickly, it will come more slowly & measured as AAG has been for a long time. AS does not hesitate to suspend or cut routes that don't add enough to the bottom line. I can all but guarantee Portland won't become a huge overflow connecting hub, but AS will likely be the first to jump in any PDX market where the PDEW warrants.


One of the big pieces with PDX is that it doesn't need to be giant, it is mostly about serving Oregon as a whole and the destinations they can sustain. Sure there are connections but AS does just fine adding what it thinks will be most viable and the best fit for their network.


I agree with with you completely- a full blown hub is a double edged sword for a medium sized big city like PDX. If AS did go big, it would likely be at the expense of other carriers and that would mean more market power and monopolistic pricing. CVG and PIT had notoriously high fares when they were hubs and CLT currently has considerably higher average fares vs. PDX ($399 vs. $332 according to Q3 2019 BTS data). PDX has a good thing going- strong presence by AS and solid presence of other major carriers (DL, WN). Could it be better served- yes, but I actually like the incremental growth spread across airlines.

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