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PepeTheFrog
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Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:11 pm

Sources closes to the well informed Cargo Facts say Airbus will be moving forward with a A350 freighter.

Airbus is moving ahead with the development of a freighter version of the A350 aircraft, sources tell Cargo Facts.

Sources say Airbus is actively pitching a freighter variant of the A350 to cargo operators, and would formally launch the new production freighter program once it secures a charter order.

Formal launch of the A350 program would likely require a sizable launch order from a major express carrier, sources familiar with the program tell Cargo Facts. Cargo Facts is aware of at least one Asia-based carrier that was pitched the A350F and declined to make a purchase commitment.


Cargo facts: https://cargofacts.com/airbus-nears-lau ... r-program/

It also has this interesting chart: https://cargofacts.com/wp-content/uploa ... istics.png

Still, any A350-900 freighter would not be an ideal MD-11F replacement.
Good moaning!
 
A388
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:47 pm

Interesting but as the article says, I'm also not sure to what extend an A350 full freighter will be that successful when seeing the P2F conversion program for the 777-300ER being offered in the (near) future as well. That would be a cheaper option for a similar aircraft.

A388
 
Noshow
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:53 pm

So what about the A330 freighter then? Will it be terminated?
 
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Polot
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:56 pm

Noshow wrote:
So what about the A330 freighter then? Will it be terminated?

The current new build A330F is essentially already dead. It hasn’t received an order in 5 years.

A A350F would be in addition to a future A330neoF though. A A350F will carry more payload further than the A330neoF.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:58 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
[...] once it secures a charter order.

Sorry, but I am just curious. what is a "charter order"?
 
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Polot
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:00 pm

N14AZ wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
[...] once it secures a charter order.

Sorry, but I am just curious. what is a "charter order"?

My guess is a some type of firm commitment saying they will order the plane that becomes firm order at program launch, since Airbus can’t technically sell the plane until they get board approval for a A350F launch.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:05 pm

A charter member of an organization is an organization that was there at the beginning.

A charter order for a commercial aircraft would be a big order from a big, well respected buyer. This tells the marketplace (and the OEM) that the airplane is prime time.

Or I guess, any order on the books on launch day can be considered a "charter order."
 
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:08 pm

Interesting chart, but it seems to lack the all-important ranges at that payload.While the A330CEO and NEO offerings are pretty much identical here, will the new freighter keep the pathetic range of the current offering?
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N14AZ
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:11 pm

Polot wrote:
N14AZ wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
[...] once it secures a charter order.

Sorry, but I am just curious. what is a "charter order"?

My guess is a some type of firm commitment saying they will order the plane that becomes firm order at program launch, since Airbus can’t technically sell the plane until they get board approval for a A350F launch.

Thanks for your reply. So rather something like a MoU or a LoI.

Reading a-net since about twenty years, I was just concerned that yet another term will lead to a new wave of disputes, something like “A: it’s an order” followed by “B: naaa, it’s just a charter order”… :roll:
 
LupineChemist
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:14 pm

Could they up the MTOW for a range penalty for a freighter? No reason to pay to fuel penalty for UHL if you can stop in the middle and cargo cares a lot less than people about changing planes.
 
Noshow
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:19 pm

Now we just need some A350MRTT. And possibly some A350AWACS or A350Airbuseidon.
 
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:32 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Sources closes to the well informed Cargo Facts say Airbus will be moving forward with a A350 freighter.

Airbus is moving ahead with the development of a freighter version of the A350 aircraft, sources tell Cargo Facts.

Sources say Airbus is actively pitching a freighter variant of the A350 to cargo operators, and would formally launch the new production freighter program once it secures a charter order.

Formal launch of the A350 program would likely require a sizable launch order from a major express carrier, sources familiar with the program tell Cargo Facts. Cargo Facts is aware of at least one Asia-based carrier that was pitched the A350F and declined to make a purchase commitment.


Cargo facts: https://cargofacts.com/airbus-nears-lau ... r-program/

It also has this interesting chart: https://cargofacts.com/wp-content/uploa ... istics.png

Still, any A350-900 freighter would not be an ideal MD-11F replacement.

Why would it not be? The majority of 11Fs are in service with integrators and their payloads are nowhere near the listed capability for the type. The payload range for this A350-900F looks much more in line with what is needed for domestic or medium haul flights.
 
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:42 pm

Noshow wrote:
Now we just need some A350MRTT. And possibly some A350AWACS or A350Airbuseidon.

The A220 is foreseen as Poseidon (according last information).
 
mxaxai
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:50 pm

HPRamper wrote:
Why would it not be? The majority of 11Fs are in service with integrators and their payloads are nowhere near the listed capability for the type. The payload range for this A350-900F looks much more in line with what is needed for domestic or medium haul flights.

The MD-11 and 767 (as well as the A300) have a shorter wingspan that, apparently, the big integrators built their hubs around. So aircraft with larger wings (A359F, A330F, 777F, 787F) will force them to give up some aircraft parking positions ('gates') and rearrange their hubs. Not a huge issue for smaller operators but certainly for the large hubs at MEM, SDF, LEJ, ...
 
HPRamper
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:59 pm

mxaxai wrote:
HPRamper wrote:
Why would it not be? The majority of 11Fs are in service with integrators and their payloads are nowhere near the listed capability for the type. The payload range for this A350-900F looks much more in line with what is needed for domestic or medium haul flights.

The MD-11 and 767 (as well as the A300) have a shorter wingspan that, apparently, the big integrators built their hubs around. So aircraft with larger wings (A359F, A330F, 777F, 787F) will force them to give up some aircraft parking positions ('gates') and rearrange their hubs. Not a huge issue for smaller operators but certainly for the large hubs at MEM, SDF, LEJ, ...

I was specifically talking about capability-wise, but yes the wingspan issue would preclude any 1-for-1.
 
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:10 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Sources closes to the well informed Cargo Facts say Airbus will be moving forward with a A350 freighter.

Cargo Facts is aware of at least one Asia-based carrier that was pitched the A350F and declined to make a purchase commitment.



In the past, CX expressed a lot of interest in an A359 based freighter and prodded Airbus to go ahead with its development. But, given the current situation at CX, I don't think they are in a position to make any commitments for new aircraft at this time.
 
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PepeTheFrog
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:20 pm

According to https://twitter.com/TLSWatch/status/1233151914587697153, a FedEx private jet with registration N1FE was in Toulouse 2 days ago.

See https://flic.kr/p/2ixvyCJ

:stirthepot:
Good moaning!
 
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:55 pm

Airbus have done a lot of research and innovation related to single pilot operation, combined with a significantly more capable AI autopilot. Recently they also performed fully autonomous take off and landings using an A350 test frame.

Could this push for an A350 freighter be related to these research and innovation activities? I guess that it will be easier to get certification for a single pilot freighter than for a passenger aircraft. After a some years with single pilot freighters the technology might be ready for a wider application.

Significantly reduced crew costs is a competitive advantage against any 777 freighter.
 
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:09 am

reidar76 wrote:
Airbus have done a lot of research and innovation related to single pilot operation, combined with a significantly more capable AI autopilot. Recently they also performed fully autonomous take off and landings using an A350 test frame.

Could this push for an A350 freighter be related to these research and innovation activities? I guess that it will be easier to get certification for a single pilot freighter than for a passenger aircraft. After a some years with single pilot freighters the technology might be ready for a wider application.

Significantly reduced crew costs is a competitive advantage against any 777 freighter.


I was thinking this with the autopilot takeoff that happened recently. IF they do A A350NEO as well, it might make up for the range/payload difference vs the immediate competition as well.
 
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:17 am

Sounds expensive, lots of cheap 777s are going to be available soon.
 
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:55 am

They should and it will be an excellent freight aircraft. Maybe the six wheel trucks for main gear on the 900 body?
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:42 am

Erebus wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Sources closes to the well informed Cargo Facts say Airbus will be moving forward with a A350 freighter.

Cargo Facts is aware of at least one Asia-based carrier that was pitched the A350F and declined to make a purchase commitment.



In the past, CX expressed a lot of interest in an A359 based freighter and prodded Airbus to go ahead with its development. But, given the current situation at CX, I don't think they are in a position to make any commitments for new aircraft at this time.



That’s news to me! Not heard so much as a rumour about that even from friends in high places who often give good rumour fodder. Doesn’t mean what you say isn’t true, just that I hadn’t heard about it yet.
 
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:41 am

mxaxai wrote:
HPRamper wrote:
Why would it not be? The majority of 11Fs are in service with integrators and their payloads are nowhere near the listed capability for the type. The payload range for this A350-900F looks much more in line with what is needed for domestic or medium haul flights.

The MD-11 and 767 (as well as the A300) have a shorter wingspan that, apparently, the big integrators built their hubs around. So aircraft with larger wings (A359F, A330F, 777F, 787F) will force them to give up some aircraft parking positions ('gates') and rearrange their hubs. Not a huge issue for smaller operators but certainly for the large hubs at MEM, SDF, LEJ, ...

The smaller operations can be just as affected. Yes it hurts SDF and MEM, less parking, but you also have to worry about who can take it down the line. I know of quite a few operations that could probably use a bigger aircraft, but can’t because of restrictions.

Integrators fly to a lot of places where cargo is way on the back burner. They’re stuffed in a corner somewhere. Growing your footprint ramp wise is a lot harder because outside of the major cargo hubs, cargo doesn’t drive airport revenue.
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:48 am

PepeTheFrog wrote:
According to https://twitter.com/TLSWatch/status/1233151914587697153, a FedEx private jet with registration N1FE was in Toulouse 2 days ago.

See https://flic.kr/p/2ixvyCJ

:stirthepot:


The first couple of ATR 72-600Fs for FedEx are under assembly. Could just as well be related to that.


A388 wrote:
Interesting but as the article says, I'm also not sure to what extend an A350 full freighter will be that successful when seeing the P2F conversion program for the 777-300ER being offered in the (near) future as well. That would be a cheaper option for a similar aircraft.

A388


Every indication is that the 777-300ER P2F will be insanely expensive to convert, and really more of an alternative to the 747-8F for package operators that need to volume, once the latter goes out of production. It is really in a different category from the 777-200F and hypothetical A350-900F.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:28 am

We're just at the tip of the iceberg of the market correction, beginning with China shutting down and the eventual worldwide cascade, and no plausible outlook on the spread of the disease waning anytime soon, let alone there even being a complete understanding of how it spreads.

10% corrections take on average 4 months to recover. We're already at the 10% benchmark as of yesterday, with the Dow falling at its single-largest one-day point drop in history.

20% corrections take on average 2 years to recover.

The 57% purely-financial correction between 2007-2009, without an underlying worldwide infectious disease at the helm, took 4 years to recover.

How long would a recovery in the 21st century be, for, say, an 80-90% correction as collections of industries wait out an "all-clear" of the disease to consider restarting, let alone getting back to 100% production? A decade? 15 years?

And with the large number of 777Fs and 767Fs entering mothball-condition over that span, would there even be a hint of a market opportunity after the next few years for new-builds of those, let alone an all-new type in the A350F?
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
VSMUT
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:26 am

KFLLCFII wrote:
And with the large number of 777Fs and 767Fs entering mothball-condition over that span, would there even be a hint of a market opportunity after the next few years for new-builds of those, let alone an all-new type in the A350F?


The 777-200F was launched in 2005 with EIS in 2009. At the time there were similar concerns about cheap MD-11s and A300s flooding the market. It was a good 6 years from the launch until it really started taking off in sales. That's not too different from what could be expected from an A350F if launched today. Besides, the A350 base frame will remain in production for probably another 15-20 years, so the risk is mitigated if they don't sell enough right here and now. This is more about positioning themselves in the marketplace in preparation for the next upswing, as Boeing is doing with the 777-300ER P2F conversion. Just like Boeing realizes that there will be a gap in the 747F sector, Airbus has realized that Boeing is in a tough position with the future of the 777F, with the 777-8 being less suitable as a freighter (and possibly not happening in the first place).

But the financial crisis shouldn't be discounted.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:10 am

In an earlier thread about a possible A350F launch, LH was mentioned as a possible launch customer. Don't know if they still have the need for new freighters.

Will be interested to know how the payload/range capabilities will be vs the 777F and A330F. And if Boeing will respond with a 777XF.

GlobalAirways wrote:
They should and it will be an excellent freight aircraft. Maybe the six wheel trucks for main gear on the 900 body?


Hmm, don't know if Airbus wants to make it that expensive a project. Market prospects for new freighters are a bit shaky right now.
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:36 am

Please help me out here as I am a little confused. Most people on here seem to agree that the A350 is a great replacement for the 777 taking similar, or higher payload further for much less fuel.

Why is the same not applicable to an A350F?
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:00 pm

KFLLCFII wrote:
We're just at the tip of the iceberg of the market correction, beginning with China shutting down and the eventual worldwide cascade, and no plausible outlook on the spread of the disease waning anytime soon, let alone there even being a complete understanding of how it spreads.

10% corrections take on average 4 months to recover. We're already at the 10% benchmark as of yesterday, with the Dow falling at its single-largest one-day point drop in history.

20% corrections take on average 2 years to recover.

The 57% purely-financial correction between 2007-2009, without an underlying worldwide infectious disease at the helm, took 4 years to recover.

How long would a recovery in the 21st century be, for, say, an 80-90% correction as collections of industries wait out an "all-clear" of the disease to consider restarting, let alone getting back to 100% production? A decade? 15 Lears?

Ha, the first doom and gloom preacher has already found this thread. Probably a Wall Street stock broker selling short.
 
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Polot
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:10 pm

StTim wrote:
Please help me out here as I am a little confused. Most people on here seem to agree that the A350 is a great replacement for the 777 taking similar, or higher payload further for much less fuel.

Why is the same not applicable to an A350F?

I believe most of those comparisons are with the 77E, or between the A35K and 77W. The 77L/77F can carry a lot more weight (the 77L/77F has a MTOW ~67t higher than the A359. An empty 777 is heavier, but not 67t heavier). Now for passenger operations it matters less since more of that weight is taken up by fuel and few airlines actually need the 77L’s available revenue payload weight (hence the tepid orders for the 77L), but the extra weight is useful for freighters carrying denser cargo.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:15 pm

Polot wrote:
StTim wrote:
Please help me out here as I am a little confused. Most people on here seem to agree that the A350 is a great replacement for the 777 taking similar, or higher payload further for much less fuel.

Why is the same not applicable to an A350F?

I believe most of those comparisons are with the 77E, or between the A35K and 77W. The 77L/77F can carry a lot more weight (the 77L/77F has a MTOW ~67t higher than the A359. An empty 777 is heavier, but not 67t heavier). Now for passenger operations it matters less since more of that weight is taken up by fuel and few airlines actually need the 77L’s available revenue payload weight (hence the tepid orders for the 77L), but the extra weight is useful for freighters carrying denser cargo.

It looks Airbus is aiming at the lighter density cargo.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:16 pm

marcelh wrote:
Polot wrote:
StTim wrote:
Please help me out here as I am a little confused. Most people on here seem to agree that the A350 is a great replacement for the 777 taking similar, or higher payload further for much less fuel.

Why is the same not applicable to an A350F?

I believe most of those comparisons are with the 77E, or between the A35K and 77W. The 77L/77F can carry a lot more weight (the 77L/77F has a MTOW ~67t higher than the A359. An empty 777 is heavier, but not 67t heavier). Now for passenger operations it matters less since more of that weight is taken up by fuel and few airlines actually need the 77L’s available revenue payload weight (hence the tepid orders for the 77L), but the extra weight is useful for freighters carrying denser cargo.

It looks Airbus is aiming at the lighter density cargo.


Yes. I was explaining why they are aiming for a different density cargo than the 777.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:21 pm

:buttnine:
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:23 pm

Is there realy a demand for an Airbus A350F, i have doubts
 
Silverstreak
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:26 pm

What happened to the A330F? It seemed perfect for some airlines.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:31 pm

Polot wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Polot wrote:
I believe most of those comparisons are with the 77E, or between the A35K and 77W. The 77L/77F can carry a lot more weight (the 77L/77F has a MTOW ~67t higher than the A359. An empty 777 is heavier, but not 67t heavier). Now for passenger operations it matters less since more of that weight is taken up by fuel and few airlines actually need the 77L’s available revenue payload weight (hence the tepid orders for the 77L), but the extra weight is useful for freighters carrying denser cargo.

It looks Airbus is aiming at the lighter density cargo.


Yes. I was explaining why they are aiming for a different density cargo than the 777.

It can be interesting to compare the A350F to the 77L when both are carrying more denser cargo (of which the 77L is optimized for).
 
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:40 pm

CX Flyboy wrote:
Erebus wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
Sources closes to the well informed Cargo Facts say Airbus will be moving forward with a A350 freighter.




In the past, CX expressed a lot of interest in an A359 based freighter and prodded Airbus to go ahead with its development. But, given the current situation at CX, I don't think they are in a position to make any commitments for new aircraft at this time.



That’s news to me! Not heard so much as a rumour about that even from friends in high places who often give good rumour fodder. Doesn’t mean what you say isn’t true, just that I hadn’t heard about it yet.


Several years ago.

- Cathay has expressed interest in an A350 freighter while also having 777Fs on order (although these are speculated to be transferred to part-owner Air China). - CAPA

- A350F all-cargo version will have to continue in the “development phase” and wait till 2020 although Cathay Pacific shows interest - A350 blog

“There is a market niche for such an aircraft. In the future there will be more need for twin-engine freighters,” Rhodes said, adding that it would make sense for Cathay to take on an A350F, as it is in line for a sizeable number of A350s for its passenger fleet. - Nick Rhodes, carrier’s director and general manager of cargo.


Cannot find it at the moment but IIRC, there was also another article out at the time with John Slosar encouraging Airbus to go ahead with the freighter development, although Airbus put the brakes on it to focus on getting the passenger version production running as a priority.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:47 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Sounds expensive, lots of cheap 777s are going to be available soon.


Lots of cheap 777s have been available for ages.....same with A330s yet we only see a handful of A330 conversions and no 777 conversions.

Polot wrote:
I believe most of those comparisons are with the 77E, or between the A35K and 77W. The 77L/77F can carry a lot more weight (the 77L/77F has a MTOW ~67t higher than the A359. An empty 777 is heavier, but not 67t heavier). Now for passenger operations it matters less since more of that weight is taken up by fuel and few airlines actually need the 77L’s available revenue payload weight (hence the tepid orders for the 77L), but the extra weight is useful for freighters carrying denser cargo.


Thankfully integrators are usually constrained by volume rather than MTOW, though the 777E/L does have a slightly wider cabin.
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Kindanew
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:51 pm

Silverstreak wrote:
What happened to the A330F? It seemed perfect for some airlines.


The A330F didn’t have enough range for some reason. Apparently it also was at a disadvantage due to being larger than the 767.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:58 pm

zkojq wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Sounds expensive, lots of cheap 777s are going to be available soon.


Lots of cheap 777s have been available for ages.....same with A330s yet we only see a handful of A330 conversions and no 777 conversions.

The 777 has composite floor that make it ill suited for dense cargo (777F switched to aluminum) which has always been the major stumbling block for 777 conversion. Not sure what the recently launched 77WP2F program is doing but it is targeting package carriers so I’m guessing keeping the floor.

Good cheap A330s only just became available in the past few years as 787/A350 (and now A330neo) fleets grew.

Kindanew wrote:
Silverstreak wrote:
What happened to the A330F? It seemed perfect for some airlines.


The A330F didn’t have enough range for some reason. Apparently it also was at a disadvantage due to being larger than the 767.

Not enough payload range vs 777, in regional role too little volume boost over the 763F to be worth it. A333P2F will do well.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:06 pm

Polot wrote:
StTim wrote:
Please help me out here as I am a little confused. Most people on here seem to agree that the A350 is a great replacement for the 777 taking similar, or higher payload further for much less fuel.

Why is the same not applicable to an A350F?

I believe most of those comparisons are with the 77E, or between the A35K and 77W. The 77L/77F can carry a lot more weight (the 77L/77F has a MTOW ~67t higher than the A359. An empty 777 is heavier, but not 67t heavier). Now for passenger operations it matters less since more of that weight is taken up by fuel and few airlines actually need the 77L’s available revenue payload weight (hence the tepid orders for the 77L), but the extra weight is useful for freighters carrying denser cargo.


While that capability may be useful, by far the biggest operator of the 77F is FedEx who, we are often told, max out on volume well before weight.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
StTim
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:17 pm

scbriml wrote:
Polot wrote:
StTim wrote:
Please help me out here as I am a little confused. Most people on here seem to agree that the A350 is a great replacement for the 777 taking similar, or higher payload further for much less fuel.

Why is the same not applicable to an A350F?

I believe most of those comparisons are with the 77E, or between the A35K and 77W. The 77L/77F can carry a lot more weight (the 77L/77F has a MTOW ~67t higher than the A359. An empty 777 is heavier, but not 67t heavier). Now for passenger operations it matters less since more of that weight is taken up by fuel and few airlines actually need the 77L’s available revenue payload weight (hence the tepid orders for the 77L), but the extra weight is useful for freighters carrying denser cargo.


While that capability may be useful, by far the biggest operator of the 77F is FedEx who, we are often told, max out on volume well before weight.


So it could be a win win for fedex. As much volume for a lot less cost (fuel) to airports with similar sized gates.
 
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PepeTheFrog
Topic Author
Posts: 367
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:17 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Sounds expensive, lots of cheap 777s are going to be available soon.


Converting an 777 is all but cheap. I understood replacing the floor beams is an expensive job.
Good moaning!
 
morrisond
Posts: 2648
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:23 pm

marcelh wrote:
KFLLCFII wrote:
We're just at the tip of the iceberg of the market correction, beginning with China shutting down and the eventual worldwide cascade, and no plausible outlook on the spread of the disease waning anytime soon, let alone there even being a complete understanding of how it spreads.

10% corrections take on average 4 months to recover. We're already at the 10% benchmark as of yesterday, with the Dow falling at its single-largest one-day point drop in history.

20% corrections take on average 2 years to recover.

The 57% purely-financial correction between 2007-2009, without an underlying worldwide infectious disease at the helm, took 4 years to recover.

How long would a recovery in the 21st century be, for, say, an 80-90% correction as collections of industries wait out an "all-clear" of the disease to consider restarting, let alone getting back to 100% production? A decade? 15 Lears?

Ha, the first doom and gloom preacher has already found this thread. Probably a Wall Street stock broker selling short.


I'm a wall street type and this is one of the signs I look for to see when a bottom is in. However as I was already at only 18% stocks and 62% Long bonds and 12% Gold before this started if it keeps going down I don't really care. I'm just looking for an opportunity to buy. I'm now sitting on 20% Cash as Bonds and Gold have kind of stalled out.

I can see -30% before it's over but then quickly recovering to about -15% - so a little below where we are right now and back to basically where the Stock market was in the fall of 2018 pre the big Xmas sell-off.

The market was at very stupid valuations pre this sell off and if it wasn't Coronavirus it was going to be something else.
 
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Polot
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:29 pm

StTim wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Polot wrote:
I believe most of those comparisons are with the 77E, or between the A35K and 77W. The 77L/77F can carry a lot more weight (the 77L/77F has a MTOW ~67t higher than the A359. An empty 777 is heavier, but not 67t heavier). Now for passenger operations it matters less since more of that weight is taken up by fuel and few airlines actually need the 77L’s available revenue payload weight (hence the tepid orders for the 77L), but the extra weight is useful for freighters carrying denser cargo.


While that capability may be useful, by far the biggest operator of the 77F is FedEx who, we are often told, max out on volume well before weight.


So it could be a win win for fedex. As much volume for a lot less cost (fuel) to airports with similar sized gates.

It’ll be great for FX but as always it comes down to cost. A350s are not cheap and a A350F won’t change that. You can still get great deals on the 77F and FX still has 15 on order (for a total fleet size of 58 planes). Is FX ready to pull the trigger on buying up a new fleet of expensive aircraft? I’m not sure.

I see UPS or Amazon as the more likely launch operators. They have no 777Fs and UPS has a large 748 fleet that can handle any of the truly large and heavy stuff. A A350F might be preferable to launching a A330-1000 or whatever Airbus was pitching (more potential mass market appeal than hyper package carrier focus).
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:48 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Sounds expensive, lots of cheap 777s are going to be available soon.


Converting an 777 is all but cheap. I understood replacing the floor beams is an expensive job.


Polot wrote:
StTim wrote:
scbriml wrote:

While that capability may be useful, by far the biggest operator of the 77F is FedEx who, we are often told, max out on volume well before weight.


So it could be a win win for fedex. As much volume for a lot less cost (fuel) to airports with similar sized gates.

It’ll be great for FX but as always it comes down to cost. A350s are not cheap and a A350F won’t change that. You can still get great deals on the 77F and FX still has 15 on order (for a total fleet size of 58 planes). Is FX ready to pull the trigger on buying up a new fleet of expensive aircraft? I’m not sure.

I see UPS or Amazon as the more likely launch operators. They have no 777Fs and UPS has a large 748 fleet that can handle any of the truly large and heavy stuff. A A350F might be preferable to launching a A330-1000 or whatever Airbus was pitching (more potential mass market appeal than hyper package carrier focus).


Even in that case, will be hard to justify business case for a new A350F when there's a lot of incoming 77W feedstock which, at say $80M all-in ($50m 77W + $30m conversion) would be half the price, and assuming A350-900 length for freighter, offer significantly more volume as well. Fuel costs don't matter nearly as much when utilization is lower and average route length is ~3000nm rather than ~6000nm in PAX ops.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 4107
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:54 pm

JustSomeDood wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Sounds expensive, lots of cheap 777s are going to be available soon.


Converting an 777 is all but cheap. I understood replacing the floor beams is an expensive job.


Polot wrote:
StTim wrote:

So it could be a win win for fedex. As much volume for a lot less cost (fuel) to airports with similar sized gates.

It’ll be great for FX but as always it comes down to cost. A350s are not cheap and a A350F won’t change that. You can still get great deals on the 77F and FX still has 15 on order (for a total fleet size of 58 planes). Is FX ready to pull the trigger on buying up a new fleet of expensive aircraft? I’m not sure.

I see UPS or Amazon as the more likely launch operators. They have no 777Fs and UPS has a large 748 fleet that can handle any of the truly large and heavy stuff. A A350F might be preferable to launching a A330-1000 or whatever Airbus was pitching (more potential mass market appeal than hyper package carrier focus).


Even in that case, will be hard to justify business case for a new A350F when there's a lot of incoming 77W feedstock which, at say $80M all-in ($50m 77W + $30m conversion) would be half the price, and assuming A350-900 length for freighter, offer significantly more volume as well. Fuel costs don't matter nearly as much when utilization is lower and average route length is ~3000nm rather than ~6000nm in PAX ops.


You won't get a 777-300ER conversion for 80 mio. In the topic when it was launched, most estimates was that it would cost 100 to 120 mio just to convert. It only makes sense in the light that the 747 is going out of production, and it will be the only similar sized product available.
 
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PepeTheFrog
Topic Author
Posts: 367
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Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:02 pm

JustSomeDood wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Sounds expensive, lots of cheap 777s are going to be available soon.


Converting an 777 is all but cheap. I understood replacing the floor beams is an expensive job.


Polot wrote:
StTim wrote:

So it could be a win win for fedex. As much volume for a lot less cost (fuel) to airports with similar sized gates.

It’ll be great for FX but as always it comes down to cost. A350s are not cheap and a A350F won’t change that. You can still get great deals on the 77F and FX still has 15 on order (for a total fleet size of 58 planes). Is FX ready to pull the trigger on buying up a new fleet of expensive aircraft? I’m not sure.

I see UPS or Amazon as the more likely launch operators. They have no 777Fs and UPS has a large 748 fleet that can handle any of the truly large and heavy stuff. A A350F might be preferable to launching a A330-1000 or whatever Airbus was pitching (more potential mass market appeal than hyper package carrier focus).


Even in that case, will be hard to justify business case for a new A350F when there's a lot of incoming 77W feedstock which, at say $80M all-in ($50m 77W + $30m conversion) would be half the price, and assuming A350-900 length for freighter, offer significantly more volume as well. Fuel costs don't matter nearly as much when utilization is lower and average route length is ~3000nm rather than ~6000nm in PAX ops.


According to https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/f ... er-closer/ the cost of converting a 777-300ER to freighter is estimated at $60 million. So you're looking at a minimum of $110-120 million for acquisition + conversion.

It's an expensive job. Especially the floor beams that need to be replaced.
Good moaning!
 
JustSomeDood
Posts: 469
Joined: Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:05 am

Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:03 pm

VSMUT wrote:
JustSomeDood wrote:
PepeTheFrog wrote:

Converting an 777 is all but cheap. I understood replacing the floor beams is an expensive job.


Polot wrote:
It’ll be great for FX but as always it comes down to cost. A350s are not cheap and a A350F won’t change that. You can still get great deals on the 77F and FX still has 15 on order (for a total fleet size of 58 planes). Is FX ready to pull the trigger on buying up a new fleet of expensive aircraft? I’m not sure.

I see UPS or Amazon as the more likely launch operators. They have no 777Fs and UPS has a large 748 fleet that can handle any of the truly large and heavy stuff. A A350F might be preferable to launching a A330-1000 or whatever Airbus was pitching (more potential mass market appeal than hyper package carrier focus).


Even in that case, will be hard to justify business case for a new A350F when there's a lot of incoming 77W feedstock which, at say $80M all-in ($50m 77W + $30m conversion) would be half the price, and assuming A350-900 length for freighter, offer significantly more volume as well. Fuel costs don't matter nearly as much when utilization is lower and average route length is ~3000nm rather than ~6000nm in PAX ops.


You won't get a 777-300ER conversion for 80 mio. In the topic when it was launched, most estimates was that it would cost 100 to 120 mio just to convert. It only makes sense in the light that the 747 is going out of production, and it will be the only similar sized product available.


Where are you getting the $100m+ costs? FG is estimating $35m conversion cost for the IAI P2F and GECAS is probably getting it done way cheaper as a launch order. I am pretty sure they aren't touching the floor beams for this program, which AFAIK are what made those earlier estimates so ludicrously expensive.

https://www.flightglobal.com/mro/gecas-and-iai-launch-777-300er-cargo-conversion/134817.article
 
VSMUT
Posts: 4107
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Cargo facts: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:08 pm

JustSomeDood wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
JustSomeDood wrote:



Even in that case, will be hard to justify business case for a new A350F when there's a lot of incoming 77W feedstock which, at say $80M all-in ($50m 77W + $30m conversion) would be half the price, and assuming A350-900 length for freighter, offer significantly more volume as well. Fuel costs don't matter nearly as much when utilization is lower and average route length is ~3000nm rather than ~6000nm in PAX ops.


You won't get a 777-300ER conversion for 80 mio. In the topic when it was launched, most estimates was that it would cost 100 to 120 mio just to convert. It only makes sense in the light that the 747 is going out of production, and it will be the only similar sized product available.


Where are you getting the $100m+ costs? FG is estimating $35m conversion cost for the IAI P2F and GECAS is probably getting it done way cheaper as a launch order. I am pretty sure they aren't touching the floor beams, which AFAIK are what made those earlier estimates so ludicrously expensive.

https://www.flightglobal.com/mro/gecas-and-iai-launch-777-300er-cargo-conversion/134817.article


If you aren't touching the floor beams, it won't hold a candle to an A350F.

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