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tomcat
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:48 am

StTim wrote:
zeke wrote:
Stitch wrote:
I'm skeptical Airbus will migrate A350-1000 parts to the A350-900 frame to make a freighter.


That has already happened, all -900s have -1000 frames these days. It saves weight.


I think he meant the MLG and engines etc from the 1000 being migrated back to the -900.


Boeing made pretty much the same thing when they made the 77W/772LR(F): they went to a much higher MTOW, they updated the wing and the landing gear and attached more powerful engines to them. What is there that Airbus couldn't do easily if they wanted to create a 319t A359F? Besides the specific cargo modifications, they would just need to shrink the A351 (and maybe enlarge its VTP, something that was not required for the 772LR for instance).

Let's just keep in mind that the article we are commenting is about a possible low density A351F which would require even less hurdles to be designed and which would carry as much as 98% of the volume of the 773ERF or 95% of its payload while burning at least 20% less fuel (or 25% more volume than the current 772F while still burning less fuel). No matter how cheap a used 777 can be even considering travelhound's approach (*), on intercontinental operations, there may be a point where the fuel saving achieved by the A351F would be compelling enough to justify an order. Coronavirus permitting, we will know soon enough which aircraft offers the best value for Fedex and the likes.

(*):
travelhound wrote:
The value proposition for the 777-300ERP2F revolves around total operating costs rather than cost of feed stock.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:58 am

I imagine an A350F ought to better solidify the future of the 778. It creates incentive for Boeing to get along with the 778 part of the program to have a competitive freighter. Even if an A350F doesn't sell well it still is going to pretty much kill the current 777F in bids for new-build freighters that aren't simply top-up orders for existing fleets unless Boeing heavily underbids Airbus (which would dent profitability). This would be especially true if Airbus ups the A359 length frame with A35K type MTOW for the freighter. Boeing would need a 777X freighter faster than they probably planned on.
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:08 pm

Fixinthe757 wrote:
Don't see FedEx buying an A350. Their intent several years ago was to have an all Boeing fleet....757, 767 and 777. Once the A300s, 10s and 11's are gone in a few years, they'll be golden. But like the weather, that changes.


What would the point of an all-Boeing fleet be though? They save nothing by doing that as opposed to adding an Airbus type. It's not like the 787 and 777 that share a common rating, the 777 and 767/757 are completely different.


Fixinthe757 wrote:
Why in the world would there be a neo for 350?! The plane just came out!


Because it is already 5 years since it entered service, 7 years since it flew for the first time and 10 years since the engine entered testing. The engine technology will be 15 years old by the time an A350neo is ready. Engine technology has taken some big steps in the past years with the geared turbofans, composite materials and now steps to add variable pitch to the fan-blades.

Not too different from the 777 either. The 777 entered service in 1995 and had it's first major improvement with upgraded engines enter service in 2004. The A340 family entered service in 1993, the upgraded version entered service in 2002.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:30 pm

Fixinthe757 wrote:
Don't see FedEx buying an A350.



Meanwhile you will see Amazon, Alibaba, Heike etc all starting their own express freight airlines to transport their own goods and will not linger need UPS and FEDEX.
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:03 pm

zeke wrote:
Fixinthe757 wrote:
Don't see FedEx buying an A350.



Meanwhile you will see Amazon, Alibaba, Heike etc all starting their own express freight airlines to transport their own goods and will not linger need UPS and FEDEX.


I am doubtful the latter claim has anything to do with the former.

I am also dountful any of those big companies will cut themselves completely free of Fedex, UPS, and especially SF in China.
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:06 pm

Baldr wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
These squabbles about single pilot ops are funny. Single pilot ops are great and all, but good luck getting regulators and unions to approve. What happens if the one Fedex A350 pilot flying MEM-DXB decides to take a nap?


Single-pilot cockpits includes remote supervision. With one pilot behind the controls, a second always stands ready to provide additional support. However, rather than being in the cockpit, the second aviator monitors the aircraft from the ground.


Certification of single pilot operations is going to start with a freighter, not a passenger aircraft. First step might be single pilot operations in cruise only. In other words, the co-pilot is sleeping onboard, and will be ready to take over the controls for the return flight etc. Next step would be that there are only one human pilot onboard, and the co-pilot is an advanced AI pilot. I don't think Airbus will develop single pilot operations that relay on support from the ground. Their recent tests with A350 autonomous takeoff and landing, didn't require ILS nor satellite support.

After several years using such technology on freighters, it will be mature enough to be used on passenger aircraft. The A350 has the most advanced flight control and automation in commercial use. An A350F might be the first one certified for single pilot operations.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:54 pm

argentinevol98 wrote:
I imagine an A350F ought to better solidify the future of the 778. It creates incentive for Boeing to get along with the 778 part of the program to have a competitive freighter. Even if an A350F doesn't sell well it still is going to pretty much kill the current 777F in bids for new-build freighters that aren't simply top-up orders for existing fleets unless Boeing heavily underbids Airbus (which would dent profitability). This would be especially true if Airbus ups the A359 length frame with A35K type MTOW for the freighter. Boeing would need a 777X freighter faster than they probably planned on.

The real question is: what customer is willing to buy large numbers of A350F? Some pax airlines have the A350 infrastructure but typically don't buy large number of freighters. Other entities will have to boot up the A350 spares and training infrastructure from scratch. https://cargofacts.com/allposts/logisti ... -dwindles/ suggests A330F is topping out at 38 frames with no new orders since 2015. A350F will be more capable, but more costly. If Baldr is correct, Boeing has 232 orders for the 777F and 107 orders for the 747-8F so quite an installed base to work from.
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:45 pm

zeke wrote:
Fixinthe757 wrote:
Don't see FedEx buying an A350.



Meanwhile you will see Amazon, Alibaba, Heike etc all starting their own express freight airlines to transport their own goods and will not linger need UPS and FEDEX.

It always amuses me when people post "such and such airline will obviously not buy the type," often correctly, I should add. It doesn't matter. A plane is launched on the overall market. Sometimes, a group of customers is enough to launch.

AA was an early proponent of the A321NEO. So it is no suprise they ordered 50 A321xlR.

For this A350F, we should look at the likely candidates, not ones who won't buy:

In my opinion, Highly likely:
CX
QR
LH
AF
JL (JAL)
CA (Air China)

Might be convinced (will bid Boeing vs. Airbus, no sure winner):
EK
SQ
UA
BA (all of IAG, IMHO).
Other Chinese airlines (likely, more a question of when due to current outlook).

There is a market for 300+ new build freighters in this class, plus a market for 300+ P2F. There will be less market for A350P2F without a new build A350F (in my opinion). Making the offering only makes sense.

If there is a so called A350NEO, Airbus and RR will need the A350F to smooth out production between the types.

There will be 232 new build 777F (old 777-200LR based version).
There will be 223 factory new 767-300 freighters
In 2017, 24 of 28 widebody freight conversions were the lowly 767, (20 of 28 by IAI/Bedek):
https://www.aircargoweek.com/record-yea ... nversions/
Cargo conversions are common:
For example, EFW is in negotiations to convert a bunch of ex-EY A330s to freighters:
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... 1-billion/

One could speculate can see Airbus wants in on the freighter market. Both for new production, but also to prop up resale values on older airframes and ensure a few more decades of ancillary services.

Note: I personally see an A338F market. IMHO, the A332based freighter didn't do well as one cannot carry freight and fill the belly tank for TATL range. So I am surprised not to see an A338F first, but obviously the market has spoken. An A350F would be far pricier, but with the A35K gear/wing/engines and a -900 length body, it opens the market.

The freight market is crowded with converters (. Look at all the converters (interesting link, in 4 parts):
Part 1: https://cargofacts.com/allposts/equipme ... y-arrived/
Note: Above Link predates launch of 777-300ERSF
https://cargofacts.com/allposts/equipme ... f-program/
Because of a bad link in above:
Part 2: https://cargofacts.com/allposts/equipme ... on-houses/
Part 3: https://cargofacts.com/allposts/equipme ... -part-iii/
Part 4: https://cargofacts.com/allposts/equipme ... s-part-iv/

With the End of EFW's A300 conversion program, but good start of the A330 conversion program, seeing an A350F only makes sense to me.

PepeTheFrog wrote:

It also has this interesting chart: https://cargofacts.com/wp-content/uploa ... istics.png

I like the chart, but it misses the payload/range characteristics. Why I think the A332 based A330F didn't sell more than 41 in a market where the 767SF conversions show demand (as well as A333P2Fs).
Obviously not an issue for the rumored A350F.

The chart also notes the A350F (-900 or -1000) isn't competing in the 160kg/m^3 market (general cargo) but rather the 130kg/m^3 (intermediate, A350-900F) or 110kg/m^3 (Express/Amazon markets, A350-1000F). The general freight market will have to wait for a 778F or continue to buy current 777Fs without competition apparently, without knowing more of the details.

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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:01 pm

The original A350 XWB Family line-up included a Freighter and a -900R, which would have had the centre section of the -1000 so the basic building blocks were envisaged way back then. Performance considerations aside, the question becomes "can Airbus develop/build an A350F so as to be in a position to offer it at a market-acceptable price".

Boeing command the widebody freighter market, hence should be enjoying monopoly pricing, so Airbus has an interest in spoiling the party, as well as supporting future production rates.

Maybe the considerable number of used A330s on the market will spoil any attempt at an A338 or A339F, low ownership costs being paramount.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:49 pm

VSMUT wrote:
The 777-200F is the best selling commercial freighter in history, so I have my sincere doubts about the claim that heavy freighters don't sell.

Baldr wrote:
Hmm, Boeing has received 232 orders for the 777F and 107 orders for the 747-8F.


232 orders for the 777 freighter compared to a combined 899 for the 777-200LR and 777-300ER. And before people say "different markets/different frames", the three models were designed as a family and I am skeptical Boeing would have just launched the 777-200LR and 777 Freighter because their sales models probably would not have justified the RoI without the 777-300ER in the family.


VSMUT wrote:
So, what you're actually saying is that Airbus shouldn't develop a relatively inexpensive heavy freighter capable of general cargo market densities (more than 10 pounds per cubic foot) like the 777F, because it's better to let Boeing keep the heavy freighter market to itself.


Well if Airbus can effectively just "Lego" an A350-900F or A350-900F HGW or an A350-1000F by adding or removing only fuselage frames, then that changes my position compared to having to custom-engineer each model. If it really is that simple for them, then it would make the family more flexible.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:53 pm

Stitch wrote:
232 orders for the 777 freighter compared to a combined 899 for the 777-200LR and 777-300ER. And before people say "different markets/different frames", the three models were designed as a family and I am skeptical Boeing would have just launched the 777-200LR and 777 Freighter because their sales models probably would not have justified the RoI without the 777-300ER in the family.


You are rambling now. How is a hypothetical A350F not part of the A350 family, but the 777F is somehow part of the 777 family?


Stitch wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
So, what you're actually saying is that Airbus shouldn't develop a relatively inexpensive heavy freighter capable of general cargo market densities (more than 10 pounds per cubic foot) like the 777F, because it's better to let Boeing keep the heavy freighter market to itself.


Well if Airbus can effectively just "Lego" an A350-900F or A350-900F HGW or an A350-1000F by adding or removing only fuselage frames, then that changes my position compared to having to custom-engineer each model. If it really is that simple for them, then it would make the family more flexible.


That's not my quote.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:16 pm

marcelh wrote:
Polot wrote:
StTim wrote:
Please help me out here as I am a little confused. Most people on here seem to agree that the A350 is a great replacement for the 777 taking similar, or higher payload further for much less fuel.

Why is the same not applicable to an A350F?

I believe most of those comparisons are with the 77E, or between the A35K and 77W. The 77L/77F can carry a lot more weight (the 77L/77F has a MTOW ~67t higher than the A359. An empty 777 is heavier, but not 67t heavier). Now for passenger operations it matters less since more of that weight is taken up by fuel and few airlines actually need the 77L’s available revenue payload weight (hence the tepid orders for the 77L), but the extra weight is useful for freighters carrying denser cargo.

It looks Airbus is aiming at the lighter density cargo.

If the prices are similar ? Why wouldn't you take more airplane. range and uplift weight for the same money? aside from a more reliable engine package? for Less uplift? Really? and from what business school did that come from?
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:40 pm

Stitch wrote:

Well if Airbus can effectively just "Lego" an A350-900F or A350-900F HGW or an A350-1000F by adding or removing only fuselage frames, then that changes my position compared to having to custom-engineer each model. If it really is that simple for them, then it would make the family more flexible.


If I got this right, the wingbox should be the same so I think you could stick with a A359 wing even in a high weight A359F, though maybe there's some advantage to using the A35J wing. Then the fuselage is just a stretch. So developing a A350-900F high weight and a A350-1000F should not be too much of a difference between the two???

https://leehamnews.com/2015/05/28/airbu ... ting-real/
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:46 pm

VSMUT wrote:
You are rambling now. How is a hypothetical A350F not part of the A350 family, but the 777F is somehow part of the 777 family?


Of course an A350 freighter would be part of the A350 family. My argument was that the RoI might not be there to design two or three custom A350 freighters (a 280t A350-900F, a 319t A350-900F and a 319t A350-1000F). But if Airbus can just make any A350 model and operating weight it wants via parts subtraction or addition, then that RoI "floor" would be much lower compared to custom engineering each solution.

That being said, considering Boeing never launched a 777-300 model freighter - especially now when they could use every sale they can get to keep the FAL operating at an efficient rate - makes me think the A350-1000 might not be a favorable platform for a freighter, regardless of their being a 777-300P2F program or not.

So that means where does Airbus position the A350 model freighter in terms of operating weights against both the existing 777 Freighter and a future 777-8 Freighter (which will almost assuredly be launched once Airbus commits to an A350-based freighter) as well as against the A330-300P2F and possible A330-900F models (should Airbus feel such a model is a prudent idea).
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:01 pm

Stitch wrote:
I'm skeptical Airbus will migrate A350-1000 parts to the A350-900 frame to make a freighter. The baseline A350-900 with a 280,000kg TOW should be sufficient to serve the role and it will be easier to design and, more importantly, integrate into the production process and I don't see it being popular enough to justify breaking that production commonality with the passenger frame. This is not a knock on Airbus - heavy freighters are just not strong sellers. The less modifications Airbus has to do, the smaller the investment and the less frames they have to sell to meet their RoI targets.

Airbus would be wise to borrow it's top tech features and lend them to the freighter, that is? If they intend to build one. Airbus does a LOT of waffling on what they want.
They take am awful long time to do not much while they try and weigh what Boeing will be doing rather than just take their best shot. They got over when Boeing pulled the 757 from production making room for the A321, and now? They are waiting for the 797 to see what Boeing is going to do TO them.
Especially since American and United have already signed up for 100 airplanes between them.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:04 pm

Stitch wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
You are rambling now. How is a hypothetical A350F not part of the A350 family, but the 777F is somehow part of the 777 family?


Of course an A350 freighter would be part of the A350 family. My argument was that the RoI might not be there to design two or three custom A350 freighters (a 280t A350-900F, a 319t A350-900F and a 319t A350-1000F). But if Airbus can just make any A350 model and operating weight it wants via parts subtraction or addition, then that RoI "floor" would be much lower compared to custom engineering each solution.


On that we can agree. But then again, if they can do it easily? It's only a matter of mixing and matching different components that they already developed. Certification would probably be the most costly part.


Stitch wrote:
So that means where does Airbus position the A350 model freighter in terms of operating weights against both the existing 777 Freighter and a future 777-8 Freighter (which will almost assuredly be launched once Airbus commits to an A350-based freighter) as well as against the A330-300P2F and possible A330-900F models (should Airbus feel such a model is a prudent idea).


As has been pointed out in numerous other threads, the 777-8 is going to make a worse freighter than the current one, so I would definitely not consider it assured. Let alone the little issue that the 777-8 might not even be built to begin with. IMO, if Airbus launches an A350F, it will almost certainly be another nail in the 777-8s coffin, not spark a response from Boeing to launch of a 777-8F.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:06 pm

trex8 wrote:
Stitch wrote:

Well if Airbus can effectively just "Lego" an A350-900F or A350-900F HGW or an A350-1000F by adding or removing only fuselage frames, then that changes my position compared to having to custom-engineer each model. If it really is that simple for them, then it would make the family more flexible.


If I got this right, the wingbox should be the same so I think you could stick with a A359 wing even in a high weight A359F, though maybe there's some advantage to using the A35J wing. Then the fuselage is just a stretch. So developing a A350-900F high weight and a A350-1000F should not be too much of a difference between the two???

https://leehamnews.com/2015/05/28/airbu ... ting-real/

Since the A350 is carbon panels nailed to a frame rather than a single winding like the 787? It's only a matter of addition or substraction as to what fuselage length they want to offer. How damn hard can it BE??
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:11 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
Airbus does a LOT of waffling on what they want.


Oh do they now? :scratchchin:

You mean the Airbus that stole all those 737 customers when Boeing kept waffling about going on with the 737 Classic or doing the 737NG? The Airbus that launched the A320neo, when Boeing kept waffling about a 737NG replacement, forcing Boeing to update the 737 yet again? The Airbus that stole the show with the A321LR and then A321XLR when Boeing kept waffling about the NMA?


strfyr51 wrote:
They got over when Boeing pulled the 757 from production making room for the A321, and now? They are waiting for the 797 to see what Boeing is going to do TO them.
Especially since American and United have already signed up for 100 airplanes between them.


:lol:

I love the revisionism here!
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:22 pm

lightsaber wrote:
It always amuses me when people post "such and such airline will obviously not buy the type," often correctly, I should add. It doesn't matter. A plane is launched on the overall market. Sometimes, a group of customers is enough to launch.

Yet TFA ( https://cargofacts.com/airbus-nears-lau ... r-program/ ) framed it in those terms:

Formal launch of the A350 program would likely require a sizable launch order from a major express carrier, sources familiar with the program tell Cargo Facts.

Realistically, "major express carrier" means they need FX, 5X, DHL, and/or maybe Amazon on board to kick off the program.

lightsaber wrote:
I like the chart, but it misses the payload/range characteristics. Why I think the A332 based A330F didn't sell more than 41 in a market where the 767SF conversions show demand (as well as A333P2Fs).
Obviously not an issue for the rumored A350F.

Why not? The chart shows A350-1000F would compete head on with 777-300F.

lightsaber wrote:
The chart also notes the A350F (-900 or -1000) isn't competing in the 160kg/m^3 market (general cargo) but rather the 130kg/m^3 (intermediate, A350-900F) or 110kg/m^3 (Express/Amazon markets, A350-1000F). The general freight market will have to wait for a 778F or continue to buy current 777Fs without competition apparently, without knowing more of the details.

Right, the fact it is in the intermediate band is what makes it vulnerable to the 777-300F.

The article goes as far to say:

Horst doubts the A350F will replace freighter-converted 747Fs, factory-built 747-400Fs or even MD-11Fs. “It is hard to see the A350F making inroads in that segment,” he said. “In fact, the ideal MD-11 replacement – at least for those operating in domestic and intra-regional markets – could turn out to be the freighter-converted A330-300P2F freighter, which has similar volume capabilities and is suited to express-type densities.”

So A350F seems to be boxed in by A330-300F and 777-300F conversions and current 767F and 772F and future 778/779F new production.
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:53 pm

Revelation wrote:

lightsaber wrote:
The chart also notes the A350F (-900 or -1000) isn't competing in the 160kg/m^3 market (general cargo) but rather the 130kg/m^3 (intermediate, A350-900F) or 110kg/m^3 (Express/Amazon markets, A350-1000F). The general freight market will have to wait for a 778F or continue to buy current 777Fs without competition apparently, without knowing more of the details.

Right, the fact it is in the intermediate band is what makes it vulnerable to the 777-300F.


The chart shows a lower payload for the A359F than for the A351F. It means that the A359F is considered with a 280T MTOW. One could expect that an A359F designed as a shrink of the A351 with a 319T MTOW would lift more payload than the latter. This would be somewhere between 100T and 105T, exactly as much as the 102T of the current 777F (I believe that the 110T shown in the chart for the 777F is a mistake). Nevertheless, the article is suggesting that Airbus is currently proposing the A351F so one can assume that they go after the express markets.

If Boeing would make a 778F, I don't see how it could offer a significantly increased payload compared to the 777F, since it would have a higher OEW, unless of course:
- the length of the 778F would be made shorter than the one we know for now. After all, there is no reason for this length to be frozen at this stage, it can still be brought back closer to the 777F length if necessary.
- Boeing would offer higher MTOW and MLW than those of the current 777F. Somewhere I cannot conceive that Boeing has designed this big wing and that the GE9X has so much excess power available for not making any use of this growth potential, or at least not having in mind to make use of it. I know the current (77W) MLG is maxed out at the current MTOW/MLW (which one of these weights is the most critical actually?) but when there is a will, there is a way. The A346 made it to 380T for example. Actually, IIRC Boeing offered a 356T MTOW for the Sunrise project. So maybe that the landing gear of the 778/779 already has some extra capability compared to the 777W gear.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:43 am

tomcat wrote:
The chart shows a lower payload for the A359F than for the A351F. It means that the A359F is considered with a 280T MTOW. One could expect that an A359F designed as a shrink of the A351 with a 319T MTOW would lift more payload than the latter. This would be somewhere between 100T and 105T, exactly as much as the 102T of the current 777F (I believe that the 110T shown in the chart for the 777F is a mistake).


While the ACAP lists 104,000kg for the 777F, I have heard that newer builds have supported up to 107,000kg for a number of years now.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:22 am

It is true that fuel costs are not as large a contribution to the total operating costs of a freighter as they are to a passenger frame, but one imagines an A350 freighter is going to burn 15-20% less than a 777 freighter based on the passenger models comparison so that will probably play a role in RFPs, regardless. Based on Seattle Times graphics, the 777X and 777 are built on different FALs in adjoining buildings (40-24 for the 777X and 40-25 for the 777), but I have heard posted that this is not the long-term plan and Boeing wants to eventually do a full cut-over to the 777X, which would mean the 777 freighter would need to eventually move to the 777X platform. And if Boeing can improve the operating weights of the freighter (perhaps by only making the model a freighter and not offering a passenger 777-8) that would help close the gap to the 777-200LR in terms of payload weight efficiency.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:52 am

Stitch wrote:
It is true that fuel costs are not as large a contribution to the total operating costs of a freighter as they are to a passenger frame, but one imagines an A350 freighter is going to burn 15-20% less than a 777 freighter based on the passenger models comparison so that will probably play a role in RFPs, regardless. Based on Seattle Times graphics, the 777X and 777 are built on different FALs in adjoining buildings (40-24 for the 777X and 40-25 for the 777), but I have heard posted that this is not the long-term plan and Boeing wants to eventually do a full cut-over to the 777X, which would mean the 777 freighter would need to eventually move to the 777X platform. And if Boeing can improve the operating weights of the freighter (perhaps by only making the model a freighter and not offering a passenger 777-8) that would help close the gap to the 777-200LR in terms of payload weight efficiency.


I have to imagine that the 77X freighter was contemplated when launched, but at this point, offering the 777-200LRF must be reasonably cheap. A 77X freighter may really throw a wrench in those economics.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:08 am

zeke wrote:
Fixinthe757 wrote:
Don't see FedEx buying an A350.



Meanwhile you will see Amazon, Alibaba, Heike etc all starting their own express freight airlines to transport their own goods and will not linger need UPS and FEDEX.


Curious, is that good for the 350F? Or what is the point? Let’s take amazon, they’re express business by air will not be flown by the planes the size/cost/capability of A350/777F.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:38 am

An A35KF is going to weight maybe 5T more than a Frankensteined 319T A359F. I just do not see value in offering it over a standard A35KF. That margin is just too small to warrant the additional engineering and supply chain investments.

While carriers won’t be able to bulk out the KF at high average densities, they’ll still be able to lift nearly 100T. That’s good enough. Especially with the plus of being able to take more volume when densities are less. It’s a more versatile airframe.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:08 am

An issue I see is the MRTT. The A350 is more than likely too big for a tanker for most Air Forces. And expensive. That means the Freighter would have nothing to leverage its development costs on for ROI. And it too will be expensive.

The A330NEO makes the most sense.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:41 am

Okcflyer wrote:
An A35KF is going to weight maybe 5T more than a Frankensteined 319T A359F.


Those are numbers you have just made up.

I cannot see where an additional 5t would come from if you were to marry the -900 front and after sections to the -1000 centre section.

The engines are 272 kg heavier (source TCDS) each, 4 more tyre assemblies thats 400 kg. That’s only a tonne more.

No reason they could not offer -900 and -1000 freighters. With their panel approach to the 350 they could look at a common side panel with a cargo door. They are already using the -1000 frames on the -900.

Slug71 wrote:
An issue I see is the MRTT.


There is already some preliminary tanker testing being done.
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:04 am

zeke wrote:
Okcflyer wrote:
An A35KF is going to weight maybe 5T more than a Frankensteined 319T A359F.


Those are numbers you have just made up.

I cannot see where an additional 5t would come from if you were to marry the -900 front and after sections to the -1000 centre section.

The engines are 272 kg heavier (source TCDS) each, 4 more tyre assemblies thats 400 kg. That’s only a tonne more.

There is already some preliminary tanker testing being done.


We already know that an A350-1000 is at least ~10t heavier OEW than a similarly configured A350-900 (something you'd be able to verify), the question is how much of that extra 10t is in the extra fuselage vs the other reinforcement needed to carry the A35k weights. If one believes the extra reinforcement/engines is only a ton more, this by definition means the 7m lengthened fuselage contributes the rest of the weight (~9t). Those are the only two major sources of weight delta between the models.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:48 pm

JustSomeDood wrote:
zeke wrote:
Okcflyer wrote:
An A35KF is going to weight maybe 5T more than a Frankensteined 319T A359F.


Those are numbers you have just made up.

I cannot see where an additional 5t would come from if you were to marry the -900 front and after sections to the -1000 centre section.

The engines are 272 kg heavier (source TCDS) each, 4 more tyre assemblies thats 400 kg. That’s only a tonne more.

There is already some preliminary tanker testing being done.


We already know that an A350-1000 is at least ~10t heavier OEW than a similarly configured A350-900 (something you'd be able to verify), the question is how much of that extra 10t is in the extra fuselage vs the other reinforcement needed to carry the A35k weights. If one believes the extra reinforcement/engines is only a ton more, this by definition means the 7m lengthened fuselage contributes the rest of the weight (~9t). Those are the only two major sources of weight delta between the models.


The better question is how much of that 10T is the heavier gear, strengthened wingbox, strengthened wing with trailing edge extensions, and strengthened center section fuse. I roughly estimated those made up half of the weight gain between the two models, meaning the additional payload potential of a hypothetical 319T 9F is in the approximately 5T range.

There may be a COG issue using the -K’s wing on the -9 fuse as well. The trailing edge extension slightly moves the COL aft.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:57 pm

Okcflyer wrote:
The better question is how much of that 10T is the heavier gear, strengthened wingbox, strengthened wing with trailing edge extensions, and strengthened center section fuse. I roughly estimated those made up half of the weight gain between the two models, meaning the additional payload potential of a hypothetical 319T 9F is in the approximately 5T range.


Not much at all, just look at the 77L to 77W, they share the same centre section, same engine, same wing, all the weight difference is fuselage. The -1000 has higher weights, 15-20 tonnes higher MZFW.
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:11 pm

zeke wrote:
Okcflyer wrote:
The better question is how much of that 10T is the heavier gear, strengthened wingbox, strengthened wing with trailing edge extensions, and strengthened center section fuse. I roughly estimated those made up half of the weight gain between the two models, meaning the additional payload potential of a hypothetical 319T 9F is in the approximately 5T range.


Not much at all, just look at the 77L to 77W, they share the same centre section, same engine, same wing, all the weight difference is fuselage. The -1000 has higher weights, 15-20 tonnes higher MZFW.


The 77L is significantly heavier than the 77E. Engines, wing, gear, all contributed a significant portion of that weight gain, unrelated to fuse stiffening outside of the center section.

The A350 case is a bit different. You have a weight-optimized 359 version using a lighter, slightly smaller wing (chord) and gear.

If your argument is the A35K’s upgraded components don’t contribute significantly, to the 10+T OEW gain above the 9, that it’s all in the main fuse itself, then why hasn’t Airbus announced plans to simply production and use, at least the heavier gear if not the wing, on new A359 builds? The reason is simple, those components (upgraded wing and gear) are a significant amount of weight gain unrelated to the stretch itself. Same reason they didn’t use these components on the A359ULR.

These same upgrades are largely what drove the divide in the industry several years ago when Airbus decided against the simple stretch A35K (using A359’s weights/ratings and trading payload for range) vs doing the upgraded A35K with new legs, tweaked wing, and significantly uprated engines.

I’ve estimated / proposed that a hypothetical 319T A359F’s max payload is only going to be roughly 5T more than A35KF. This being because it empty weight is only going to be that much less.

As I recall the regular pax A359 and A35K are about 10-12T different in empty weight. Can you provide any further information on those?
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:41 pm

According to Leeham News the A350F is not a rumor:

Airbus attacking Boeing freight monopolies

Airbus is developing an A350-900 new built freighter. This will challenge the 777F. The 777F has been Boeing’s mainstay to bridge the production between the 777 Classic and the delayed 777-9.

The freighter market has been the big, gaping hole in the Airbus product line. After decades, it appears Airbus is finally ready to make a solid challenge.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/03/02/ponti ... more-32728
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:24 pm

9Patch wrote:
According to Leeham News the A350F is not a rumor:

Airbus attacking Boeing freight monopolies

Airbus is developing an A350-900 new built freighter. This will challenge the 777F. The 777F has been Boeing’s mainstay to bridge the production between the 777 Classic and the delayed 777-9.

The freighter market has been the big, gaping hole in the Airbus product line. After decades, it appears Airbus is finally ready to make a solid challenge.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/03/02/ponti ... more-32728

Unless it's from Airbus itself, it is still a rumor.

It's interesting that Leeham's reporting it as A359F whereas Cargo Facts reports an A351F.
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:17 am

Polot wrote:
It’ll be great for FX but as always it comes down to cost. A350s are not cheap and a A350F won’t change that.


If it's good for the Goose, it's good for the Gander. :roll:

Baldr wrote:
The problems here is that some people always seem to keep raising the bar on Airbus -- i.e. Airbus can't do this or that because it's too expensive; an A350F can't possibly carry the same payload at general cargo market densities (more than 10 pounds per cubic foot) as the 777F (etc.) -- while the same individuals seemingly are having no issues with any costly Boeing programme and taking for granted that Boeing will launch a notional 777-8F (etc.). So, it's easy to see where the bias comes from.


Indeed, the biases is doing my head in. We've heard ad nauseam on a.net how increasing the 787 production rate was a miracle, a masterstroke due to the way it reduced production cost of each airplane. Yet as we see from my response above apparently the same won't be true of the A350 if freight orders are added to the order book and production rates increased. Heck only a month ago we had somebody arguing that FX (or was it 5X?) would never order the A330-900F due to it's wingspan being too wide for the existing ramp positions at MEM/SDF yet the same people suggesting that the same integrator would be a shoein for ordering a 777xF - wider wingspan and all.... I get that Boeing has a stronger freighter portfolio than Airbus but it would be nice if people would at least try to hide their biases.
First to fly the 787-9
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:53 am

Okcflyer wrote:
The 77L is significantly heavier than the 77E. Engines, wing, gear, all contributed a significant portion of that weight gain, unrelated to fuse stiffening outside of the center section.


I didnt say have a look at the 77E to 77L, they dont have a common wing and engine. I said have a look at the 77L to 77W which only has the fuselage length difference, 22679 kg difference between them, 10.13 meters length difference, that works out to be 2238 kg/meter of fuselange.

Okcflyer wrote:
The A350 case is a bit different. You have a weight-optimized 359 version using a lighter, slightly smaller wing (chord) and gear.


The wings are common, so are the gear, just a different truck on attached at the bottom. The wing chord difference is on the flap, the gear difference is not with the gear, its the extra bay in the centre section.

Okcflyer wrote:
If your argument is the A35K’s upgraded components don’t contribute significantly, to the 10+T OEW gain above the 9, that it’s all in the main fuse itself, then why hasn’t Airbus announced plans to simply production and use, at least the heavier gear if not the wing, on new A359 builds? The reason is simple, those components (upgraded wing and gear) are a significant amount of weight gain unrelated to the stretch itself. Same reason they didn’t use these components on the A359ULR.


None of those aircraft needed the additional MTOW to -1000 levels, and they have ever since launch talked about using the -1000 gear on a freighter.

"There is provision to incorporate the six-wheel bogie and bay in future weight growth versions of the A350-900, such as the -900R extended range and -900F freighter, to ensure they retain the required pavement loadings." source https://www.flightglobal.com/pictures-a ... 36.article

Okcflyer wrote:
These same upgrades are largely what drove the divide in the industry several years ago when Airbus decided against the simple stretch A35K (using A359’s weights/ratings and trading payload for range) vs doing the upgraded A35K with new legs, tweaked wing, and significantly uprated engines.


You are reinventing history there, the -1000 ALWAYS had 6 wheel gear.

Okcflyer wrote:
I’ve estimated / proposed that a hypothetical 319T A359F’s max payload is only going to be roughly 5T more than A35KF. This being because it empty weight is only going to be that much less.


Okay we have it, you are making a guess based off a whole heap of just plain wrong numbers.

Take the -900 and -1000 length difference, 6.18 metrers x 2.38 tonnes/meter gives around 13.8 tonnes difference.
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:49 pm

Well done Airbus

Observed behavioral patterns suggest these possibilities
Amazon: Building out infrastructure from scratch and lower density objectives? A valid option would be a fleet of A359Fs and A351neoFs over time.

5X: vanilla A359Fs as regional buses and a few A359ULRFs for Asian clean up + regional bus support. For example, the 747F fleet services 95% of the volume via the Alaskan hub; a few A359ULRFs are strategically placed for late (higher margin) pickups and fly direct to Louisville, pit stop and make a high volume regional run (think west coast). Big brown may envision a GEnx theme, but AB has offered a good fit path and they are “captured” by business cases.

TK: business model around a fleet of A350Fs & A332Fs, suited to their geographic advantage… wow

CX: the snow globe has had a good shaking,… Wǒmen kěyǐ shāo hòu zài tán ma(let’s talk about this later)?

SQ: how many did we order?... sigh, what about converting a few of our orders to freighter?

QR: aspires to be the launch customer for the A351neoF, sanuqaliq bishan tabrir halat 'aemaluna lahqana (spin, oops, business case justification comes… aaaafter acceptance?, sigh. Next question please)

5Y: we’ll fly anything with wings. What’s the cargo?

LH: herr Gerber went B772F after pining for an A359F

QY: telegraphs measured low cost acquisition; with the A333P2F optimistically dominating, B773P2Fs will likely drip in?

FX: Boeing and GE appear to have “captured” FX, the expected business strategy would be adding compatible B773P2Fs

Pricing perspective
An A359F purchased in the mid 2020s+ is expected to have a longer commercial life than a new B772F build at the same time. Thus, the annual amortized expense/cost of a A359F is more competitive than simply comparing frames by list price.

A vanilla A359F would likely list for 322.2 and a B772F lists for 353.2; ~1.5% premium over passenger. (wikipedia)
Using ANet’s 50% rule of thumb discount, assume for debate: A359F, $161.1M versus B772F, $176.6M
Hypothesis: the expected economic life of a freighter is 34 +/- 3 yrs.
..life expectancy adjustment factors:
2) newEra/oldEra +2/-2 yrs
3) beginningGeneration/end-of-line +2/-2 yrs
4) narrowbody/widebody/LVA; penalty increases with size
8) airframer maturity; ie MD11s and early AB freighters earn a penalty

Debate on the details is encouraged, with the objective of improving an open source pricing rule of thumb. However, the broad thesis should hold.
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:51 pm

amdiesen wrote:
Well done Airbus


Done what exactly?
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:25 am

VSMUT wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
Airbus does a LOT of waffling on what they want.


Oh do they now? :scratchchin:

You mean the Airbus that stole all those 737 customers when Boeing kept waffling about going on with the 737 Classic or doing the 737NG? The Airbus that launched the A320neo, when Boeing kept waffling about a 737NG replacement, forcing Boeing to update the 737 yet again? The Airbus that stole the show with the A321LR and then A321XLR when Boeing kept waffling about the NMA?


strfyr51 wrote:
They got over when Boeing pulled the 757 from production making room for the A321, and now? They are waiting for the 797 to see what Boeing is going to do TO them.
Especially since American and United have already signed up for 100 airplanes between them.[/quote. If itof the Airframe
:lol:

I love the revisionism here!



what revisionism? I simply asked a question and exactly why did you bring up the 737 when we were discussing the A350?
Is the A350 built on single winding like the 787 or? is the frame metal and overlaid with Carbon fiber Panels? if it's one? then No they can't easily scale the length of he Airframe. If it's he other? Then they can always do it and ADD More Panels. Or? Don't you really KNOW how an Airframe IS Built?? Because I actually do.
 
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:43 am

lightsaber wrote:
"There will be less market for A350P2F without a new build A350F (in my opinion)..., Airbus wants in on the freighter market....but also to prop up resale values on older airframes..."

an under-estimated statement imo. One might consider that this would raise the expected commercial life of the passenger derivative when making purchase decisions.

lightsaber wrote:
datum: There is a market for 300+ new build freighters in this class, plus a market for 300+ P2F.
datum: There will be 232 new build 777F (old 777-200LR based version).
Sometimes, a group of customers is enough to launch.
An A350F ..., but with the A35K gear/wing/engines and a -900 length body, it opens the market.

datum: using the widebody freighter characteristics chart; The B772F sits in cat1, and the A359F sits in cat2
datum: The stretch A330neo that Amazon and UPS were requesting. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -by-amazon

respectfully, any clarity would be appreciated as I do not understand. Why the performance version of an A359F versus a vanilla A359F (Bastian's "don't over-build it")? The caveat here is the B772Fs have saturated the 'cat1' market as bridge production filler. The A359F appears to fit; Amazon is shopping to buy the growth segment of the 'market for 300+', UPS appears to be proactively shopping for a MD11 replacement; both 'cat2'. It sounds like a shades of grey or timing conundrum, or just as likely, my missing key factors.
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
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zeke
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Re: Cargo facts Rumor: Airbus nears launch of A350 freighter

Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:29 am

strfyr51 wrote:
[Then they can always do it and ADD More Panels. Or? Don't you really KNOW how an Airframe IS Built?? Because I actually do.


The A350-900 and A350-1000 are built with the same number of panels per section, and the same number of sections.

The difference between the two is the length of the panels in each section. Making it longer in the case of the -1000 (or-2000 when it comes to market) is simply the same number of panels to a sections.

This is fundamentally different to any other airliner on the market.
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