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American 767
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Will JAL order the 777-9?

Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:32 pm

Hi everyone,

There was recently a thread about ANA future widebody fleet, with 777X and additional 787s on order. I am at this point surprised that JAL hasn't ordered the all new 777-9 which just made its maiden flight in Everett WA. Yes I know they have chosen the A350 but, as a long time Boeing customer for widebodies, and as an early 777 operator, I am still surprised they haven't yet ordered the 777-9. I think that's the next airplane JAL will order, if they place a new widebody order. I also think JAL could be the next customer for the 777-9, the fourth in Asia.
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DylanHarvey
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:38 pm

The likelihood is very low, it’s a very heavy aircraft, and they’ve already chosen the A35K for their high premium low density international aircraft along with the 787’s.
 
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SQ789
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:39 pm

American 767 wrote:
Hi everyone,

There was recently a thread about ANA future widebody fleet, with 777X and additional 787s on order. I am at this point surprised that JAL hasn't ordered the all new 777-9 which just made its maiden flight in Everett WA. Yes I know they have chosen the A350 but, as a long time Boeing customer for widebodies, and as an early 777 operator, I am still surprised they haven't yet ordered the 777-9. I think that's the next airplane JAL will order, if they place a new widebody order. I also think JAL could be the next customer for the 777-9, the fourth in Asia.

I think JAL should have just order the 787-10 (Domestic) and 777-9 (International) long time ago instead of A359 and A35K. These types allows JAL to replace the older models of B777. I think If JAL order 779 and 78X apart from A359 and A35K means that it works more for JAL. Or the A35K and A359 works more than the 779 and 78X for JAL?
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Carpethead
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:37 pm

The likelihood of JAL ordering any variant of 777 is remote now that they have the A350 order. The A35K is more than big enough for their future needs. Whether they order more A359s or 787-9s or 787-10s to retire their domestic 777s is to be seen. If Boeing doesn't resolve the 737-MAX problems, they could turn to the A320s for their 737NG replacements.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:41 pm

American 767 wrote:
I am at this point surprised that JAL hasn't ordered the all new 777-9 which just made its maiden flight in Everett WA. Yes I know they have chosen the A350 but, as a long time Boeing customer for widebodies, and as an early 777 operator, I am still surprised they haven't yet ordered the 777-9. I think that's the next airplane JAL will order, if they place a new widebody order. I also think JAL could be the next customer for the 777-9, the fourth in Asia.


One of the reasons JAL noted in ordering the A350 was to diversify their fleet in terms of OEMs. Considering how low-density JAL's international configurations are, I honestly don't see the 777-9 being something they would be interested in as the A350-1000 is of sufficient size to serve as a 777-300ER replacement and overcapacity was one of the things that sent them into bankruptcy reorganization.
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:25 pm

I think JAL is fine with a fleet of Boeing 787 & Airbus A350 so they save pilot and maintenance costs
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eamondzhang
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:59 pm

The amount of (over)capacity 779X provided is exactly the last thing JAL wants. They have A350 for 777 replacement job already, both domestic and international.

777 is not going to be part of their fleet in the next 10 years.

Michael
 
ITSTours
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:09 pm

Isn't A350-1000 almost a 1:1 replacement for 777-300ER?
Especially when JAL sticks to 3-3-3 Y class.
 
Antarius
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:15 pm

ITSTours wrote:
Isn't A350-1000 almost a 1:1 replacement for 777-300ER?
Especially when JAL sticks to 3-3-3 Y class.


Pretty much. And they have an ultra low density due to their 77Ws being very premium heavy.

The a350 is ideal for JL longhaul. Domestically, the 78J would suit them as a 777 replacement. Do not see a need for the 777X
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jfk777
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:44 pm

Antarius wrote:
ITSTours wrote:
Isn't A350-1000 almost a 1:1 replacement for 777-300ER?
Especially when JAL sticks to 3-3-3 Y class.


Pretty much. And they have an ultra low density due to their 77Ws being very premium heavy.

The a350 is ideal for JL long haul. Domestically, the 78J would suit them as a 777 replacement. Do not see a need for the 777X


So far JAL's A350-900 have been used for domestic flights with US style First Class seats. JAL ordered 31 A350's including 13 A350 -1000's, the -1000 are the 777-300ER replacements. JAL usually has large Business Class cabins on their international long haul planes.

The 777-9 is too big for JAL, they run multiple daily flights to London and JFK so larger is not better, smaller is.
 
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precure787
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:52 am

If they did, it'll be allocated for flights to the US (SFO, LAX, JFK, HNL) or Europe (LHR, CDG), and would be based at either HND or NRT.
However, given the costs and the complexity (including the folding wing), the likelihood would be little to none.
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Ziyulu
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:19 am

If they do order it, I hope they keep economy at 3-3-3.
 
jfk777
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:30 am

Korean Air is much more likely to order the 777-9 since they have not ordered A350 or 777-9 yet. KAL has a large 77W fleet and A380's which could have a short career if AF is any guide.
 
speedbird52
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:25 am

jfk777 wrote:
Korean Air is much more likely to order the 777-9 since they have not ordered A350 or 777-9 yet. KAL has a large 77W fleet and A380's which could have a short career if AF is any guide.

KAL Have the lowest density A380s of any operator. I can easily see the 777-9s taking over the A380s role in their fleet, and replacing older 77Ws. I must say Koreans fleet tends to have really small low dens J cabins, with the exception of the A380: Why is that?
 
Jefford717
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:47 am

777x is too big and too capable for JAL. A350-1000 is the perfect replacement for their 77W. JAL also wants to diversify its fleet; hence the Airbus order. Their current longest route is HND-JFK, which is less than 5,900nmi. A 78X at JAL’s premium heavy layout with some cargo could make that trip. However, I could see them ordering more 787 in the future. Kinda surprised that they are using A359 for domestic routes instead of ordering 78X or more 789.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:05 am

With their current orders + options they pretty much have the 777 replacement covered. Any new widebody order would most likely cover the (international) 767-300ER replacement. They might have been waiting if Boeing would launch an NMA, so right now another top-up order for the 787-8 would be a likely option.
 
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PM
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:42 am

SQ789 wrote:
I think JAL should have just order the 787-10 (Domestic) and 777-9 (International) long time ago instead of A359 and A35K. These types allows JAL to replace the older models of B777.
So JAL can't replace 777s with A350s? :confused:
 
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SQ789
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:46 am

PM wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
I think JAL should have just order the 787-10 (Domestic) and 777-9 (International) long time ago instead of A359 and A35K. These types allows JAL to replace the older models of B777.
So JAL can't replace 777s with A350s? :confused:

The 772 can be replaced by the A359 but the 77W and 773 is not.
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upperdeckfan
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:52 am

jfk777 wrote:
Korean Air is much more likely to order the 777-9 since they have not ordered A350 or 777-9 yet. KAL has a large 77W fleet and A380's which could have a short career if AF is any guide.


KE not only have a large 77W fleet plus 10 A380's, they also have 10 B748's which will keep flying for a long while.

Don't see them ordering 77X any time soon as they have more than enough capcity for years to come.
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BlueSky1976
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:19 am

SQ789 wrote:
The 772 can be replaced by the A359 but the 77W and 773 is not.


Having too big aircraft in their fleet is what sent JAL into bankruptcy.
A350-900R is the replacement for domestic 772s and 773s, while A350-1000 will replace 77Ws. End of story.
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:26 am

SQ789 wrote:
PM wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
I think JAL should have just order the 787-10 (Domestic) and 777-9 (International) long time ago instead of A359 and A35K. These types allows JAL to replace the older models of B777.
So JAL can't replace 777s with A350s? :confused:

The 772 can be replaced by the A359 but the 77W and 773 is not.


But the A350-1000, which JAL has on order, can and will.
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:18 pm

upperdeckfan wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Korean Air is much more likely to order the 777-9 since they have not ordered A350 or 777-9 yet. KAL has a large 77W fleet and A380's which could have a short career if AF is any guide.


KE not only have a large 77W fleet plus 10 A380's, they also have 10 B748's which will keep flying for a long while.

Don't see them ordering 77X any time soon as they have more than enough capacity for years to come.


Korean will keep flying their 77W and 748 for years, but will they keep the A380 ? IF what Air France and Lufthansa are doing is any guide, KAL could start retiring their A380 in a few years when overhaul time comes ?
 
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Stitch
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:12 pm

SQ789 wrote:
The 772 can be replaced by the A359 but the 77W and 773 is not.


The A350-1000 will quite comfortably replace JAL's international-configuration 777-300ER fleet.

There is nothing that can replace their domestic 777-300s - the 777-9 maxes out at 495 seats. If JAL really needs more than 440 seats on a domestic service, they will just use their 777-300ERs and downgrade their listed operating weights and engine thrust to lower fees and improve engine on-wing life.
 
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:33 pm

Jefford717 wrote:
777x is too big and too capable for JAL. A350-1000 is the perfect replacement for their 77W.

We are being told that the A350-1000 is more capable than the 777X, so...........
 
VRHNM
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:14 pm

Highly doubt it given that JL has previously stated that the A350-1000 will ultimately be their largest aircraft once all 777s are phased out.
 
mig17
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:50 pm

par13del wrote:
Jefford717 wrote:
777x is too big and too capable for JAL. A350-1000 is the perfect replacement for their 77W.

We are being told that the A350-1000 is more capable than the 777X, so...........


Based on available data for both frame, especially advertised range and advertised MTOW directly from Boeing website, yes it is less capable.
Or at least :
- both A35K and 779 have a max payload around 70t.
- A35K max range for any given paylaod is higher than 779 max range with the same payload.
- At any given range, A35K offers the same or more payload than the 779.
- The A35K cost less to purchase than the 779 for the same quantity (better price-list and higher production rate with the A359 in the mix)
- The A35K being really lighter it cost less to maintain and fly around than the 779

Because yes:
- The 779 is larger than the A35K so if payload allows it you can put more seats or more prenium seats
- With more seats the 779 will have the same fuel burn per seat than the A35K
- You may have an 779 sooner than an A35K if you need it really fast.

Now, if the OEW of the 779 is not really lower than predicted by specialized aviation analyst or if Boeing hasn't greatly underestimated max range with their config or if Boeing hasn't greatly underestimated the MTOW, and the recent Qantas selection for Sunrise suggest they are/did not, yes A35K is better than 779.
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ITSTours
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:57 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Korean Air is much more likely to order the 777-9 since they have not ordered A350 or 777-9 yet. KAL has a large 77W fleet and A380's which could have a short career if AF is any guide.

KAL Have the lowest density A380s of any operator. I can easily see the 777-9s taking over the A380s role in their fleet, and replacing older 77Ws. I must say Koreans fleet tends to have really small low dens J cabins, with the exception of the A380: Why is that?


Rumor is that Heather Cho (the Nut Rage lady) insisted All-Business second floor for their A380.
South Korea typically has much lower premier class demand compared to Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
That is why all other aircrafts have a small business cabin.
 
seat1a
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:14 pm

DylanHarvey wrote:
The likelihood is very low, it’s a very heavy aircraft, and they’ve already chosen the A35K for their high premium low density international aircraft along with the 787’s.


What are their key high premium/low-density routes? Thanks!
 
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Stitch
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:07 pm

seat1a wrote:
What are their key high premium/low-density routes? Thanks!


Routes including Tokyo to Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, New York, London and Paris. All are served by their 777-300ERs, which have four classes of service, including First Class with the JAL SUITE: https://www.jal.co.jp/en/inter/service/rosen/suite.html
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:23 pm

par13del wrote:
Jefford717 wrote:
777x is too big and too capable for JAL. A350-1000 is the perfect replacement for their 77W.

We are being told that the A350-1000 is more capable than the 777X, so...........

Not in terms of pax load especially in 779X's case.

SQ789 wrote:
PM wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
I think JAL should have just order the 787-10 (Domestic) and 777-9 (International) long time ago instead of A359 and A35K. These types allows JAL to replace the older models of B777.
So JAL can't replace 777s with A350s? :confused:

The 772 can be replaced by the A359 but the 77W and 773 is not.

A359 is replacing both 772 and 773 domestically and 77W replacement is taken care of by A3510. No need to add another plane type just for the sake of it.

Michael
 
jfk777
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:44 am

Much to the chagrin of many here JAL ordered A350's to replace their 77W fleet and 772 fleet. JAL has to order the best plane for their needs not the plane Boeing says they should have. JAL still has a large 787-8/-9 fleet so they will remain a large Boeing customer. The A350 is a decent airplane, Boeing made the 777-9 bigger then the 77W which perhaps was a mistake.

Many airlines have 777-9 and A350-900, this is an interesting balance to match demand on ultra long haul routes. When will JAL fly the A350-900 to Europe or the USA ?
 
a19901213
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:07 am

jfk777 wrote:
Much to the chagrin of many here JAL ordered A350's to replace their 77W fleet and 772 fleet. JAL has to order the best plane for their needs not the plane Boeing says they should have. JAL still has a large 787-8/-9 fleet so they will remain a large Boeing customer. The A350 is a decent airplane, Boeing made the 777-9 bigger then the 77W which perhaps was a mistake.

Many airlines have 777-9 and A350-900, this is an interesting balance to match demand on ultra long haul routes. When will JAL fly the A350-900 to Europe or the USA ?


There’s no foreseeable plan that JAL is using 359 on international routes.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Will JAL order the 777-9?

Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:03 am

SQ789 wrote:
American 767 wrote:
Hi everyone,

There was recently a thread about ANA future widebody fleet, with 777X and additional 787s on order. I am at this point surprised that JAL hasn't ordered the all new 777-9 which just made its maiden flight in Everett WA. Yes I know they have chosen the A350 but, as a long time Boeing customer for widebodies, and as an early 777 operator, I am still surprised they haven't yet ordered the 777-9. I think that's the next airplane JAL will order, if they place a new widebody order. I also think JAL could be the next customer for the 777-9, the fourth in Asia.

I think JAL should have just order the 787-10 (Domestic) and 777-9 (International) long time ago instead of A359 and A35K. These types allows JAL to replace the older models of B777. I think If JAL order 779 and 78X apart from A359 and A35K means that it works more for JAL. Or the A35K and A359 works more than the 779 and 78X for JAL?


The A359 gives them the 772/ER replacement size & the A350-1000 gives them the 777W replacement size. Both with greater range. The 777-9 is to heavy & too large. The best fit for them is the same size/range that the 772 (5240nm)/ER (7065nm) & 77W (7370nm) covered. But with 8100nm A359 & 8700nm A35K.

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