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william
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If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:54 pm

We all know the history of the A380 and its short comings. This is not the thread to rehash them.

This is a serious question and I hope this thread stays on this point. If the A380 was designed today not twenty years ago, what would it look like today? Would the wing be smaller or longer with folding wingtips?
Would it be possible to make it a twin like Keejse Ecoliner concept? Or a return of the tri engine design? Would it be an A350 sized plane with a second level?
 
Antarius
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:00 pm

It wouldn't exist. The fact that Airbus is not creating a NEO or a clean sheet 380 equivalent, while Boeing is wrapping up the 747 production Indicates that the a380 would not leave the drawing board in 2020.
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
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JannEejit
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:10 pm

How does it look though if other airports like LHR find out they cannot expand and the role of the VLA is suddenly back in fashion ? With current environmental concerns and lobbying, you have to wonder if the A380 or suchlike may yet have it's day in the sun ?
 
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vhtje
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:10 pm

I don't really follow your question. If the A380 was different in way like you speculate in your post, it wouldn't be an A380 anymore, it would be a different aircraft.

Besides, you cannot dismiss the aircraft's shortcomings just like that: they ARE the root of the aircraft's problem. The A380 was designed for a different time. Ultra longhaul, efficient lightweight aircraft are, right now, in the process of revolutionising the aviation industry, and in so doing, are busting the mega hub model the A380 was designed for.

The A380 just wouldn't be designed today. Look at how the 777X is struggling. I doubt we are going to see a mega-sized aircraft again in the medium term, at least not until there is some seismic shift in aviation market economics.
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Vladex
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:15 pm

It's probably too good of an airplane that was too competitive for big legacy carriers and which allowed city states to compete and jump over those legacy carriers by far. There was nothing wrong it per se except typical notions of being a shrink with small engines but that's the case with every airplane when it starts. Remember the lawsuits and complaints from US3 and even EURO3 , that was the only issue that brought it down. . Now that its ending , I don't hear much of anything about these lawsuits and legislations about protecting the monopoly of legacy carriers.
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:16 pm

Thats call A350neo
 
Antarius
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:16 pm

Vladex wrote:
It's probably too good of an airplane that was too competitive for big legacy carriers and which allowed city states to compete and jump over those legacy carriers by far. There was nothing wrong it per se except typical notions of being a shrink with small engines but that's the case with every airplane when it starts. Remember the lawsuits and complaints from US3 and even EURO3 , that was the only issue that brought it down. . Now that its ending , I don't hear much of anything about these lawsuits and legislations about protecting the monopoly of legacy carriers.


:rotfl:
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
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Revelation
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:22 pm

william wrote:
We all know the history of the A380 and its short comings. This is not the thread to rehash them.

This is a serious question and I hope this thread stays on this point. If the A380 was designed today not twenty years ago, what would it look like today? Would the wing be smaller or longer with folding wingtips?

Would it be possible to make it a twin like Keejse Ecoliner concept? Or a return of the tri engine design? Would it be an A350 sized plane with a second level?

I have to agree with the earlier post, the big twin is the most efficient approach, and airlines these days value efficiency and flexibility over sheer size and throughput.

https://www.icas.org/media/pdf/ICAS%20C ... ampion.pdf is a good document showing the thought process Airbus went through to come up with the A380.

If they did this process now, I think the answer would be very different.

In particular, the bottom of Pg 3 shows they thought the A380 core market was centered around 550-650 seats in 3 class layout, whereas we're seeing airlines are having a hard time justifying buying A350-1000 and 779 which are 100 or so seats smaller than that in 1 class layout.

Simply put, the market is not at all asking for airplanes any bigger than A351/779 so building something bigger is a non-starter.

We see EK is still taking the end of the line A380s and QF and SQ have spent money refurbishing theirs so we shall have A380s for a while going forward, but no one is clamoring for replacements while the early SQ and AF models are already in their final positions and LH will be selling back a large slice of their fleet to Airbus in the next few years.
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VV
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:25 pm

william wrote:
...
This is a serious question and I hope this thread stays on this point. If the A380 was designed today not twenty years ago, what would it look like today? Would the wing be smaller or longer with folding wingtips?
...


Perhaps the question should be asked differently.

Is there a market for such aircraft today?

It is more about the requirement than about the solution.
Define the need first and then you try to find the appropriate answer.

It is not always a good thing to start with a solution and then try to find the question that would fit that solution.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:26 pm

JannEejit wrote:
How does it look though if other airports like LHR find out they cannot expand and the role of the VLA is suddenly back in fashion ?


The same thing that's been happening for the last twenty years while LHR was awaiting another runway: growth at CDG/AMS/MAD/FRA/MUC, point-to-point TATL services at secondary airports, and growth at LON's continental (in contrast to intercontinental) airports.

Airbus said: We see growth at constrained mega-airports (LHR, LGW, and NRT as the poster-children) so VLAs must be the answer.

Boeing said: We see route fragmentation - planes with range but smaller passenger capacity (787s) are the answer.

The market has spoken - Airbus has announced the wind-down of production after years of stagnant orders - but Airbus partisans just can't accept that Boeing got this call right.
 
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Revelation
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:33 pm

JannEejit wrote:
How does it look though if other airports like LHR find out they cannot expand and the role of the VLA is suddenly back in fashion ? With current environmental concerns and lobbying, you have to wonder if the A380 or suchlike may yet have it's day in the sun ?

Events have shown that it's easier for LHR's role to change than for a new VLA to be created just to keep LHR's role unchanged.

DXB's role is changing: EK canceled A830 orders and is now buying A359 789 and 779.

LHR has plenty of flights that can upgauged, and BA and others have many different sized airplanes to match demand.

The reality is the A380 size is not needed often enough to justify a similarly sized replacement.
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Vladex
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:33 pm

vhtje wrote:
I don't really follow your question. If the A380 was different in way like you speculate in your post, it wouldn't be an A380 anymore, it would be a different aircraft.

Besides, you cannot dismiss the aircraft's shortcomings just like that: they ARE the root of the aircraft's problem. The A380 was designed for a different time. Ultra longhaul, efficient lightweight aircraft are, right now, in the process of revolutionising the aviation industry, and in so doing, are busting the mega hub model the A380 was designed for.

The A380 just wouldn't be designed today. Look at how the 777X is struggling. I doubt we are going to see a mega-sized aircraft again in the medium term, at least not until there is some seismic shift in aviation market economics.


Which mega hubs are destroyed by these revolutionizing aircraft? You know Dubai and Singapore are major hubs as is Heathrow and Frankfurt. If big aircraft are dying then small aircraft are going extinct as anything below A220 is dead already and they are looking enlarge A220 as well.

Being lightweight means nothing and is hindrance for the future when the future means ever bigger engines and electric batteries. 777x is not struggling if it is because of it's size but because it has a competition of A350 that is better in almost every way..
 
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Revelation
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:44 pm

Vladex wrote:
Being lightweight means nothing and is hindrance for the future when the future means ever bigger engines and electric batteries. 777x is not struggling if it is because of it's size but because it has a competition of A350 that is better in almost every way..

A350 is successful but 777x is not struggling, it has more orders before EIS than the number of A380s ever built, for a far lower investment than A380 ever was.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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FriscoHeavy
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:45 pm

Vladex wrote:
vhtje wrote:
I don't really follow your question. If the A380 was different in way like you speculate in your post, it wouldn't be an A380 anymore, it would be a different aircraft.

Besides, you cannot dismiss the aircraft's shortcomings just like that: they ARE the root of the aircraft's problem. The A380 was designed for a different time. Ultra longhaul, efficient lightweight aircraft are, right now, in the process of revolutionising the aviation industry, and in so doing, are busting the mega hub model the A380 was designed for.

The A380 just wouldn't be designed today. Look at how the 777X is struggling. I doubt we are going to see a mega-sized aircraft again in the medium term, at least not until there is some seismic shift in aviation market economics.


Which mega hubs are destroyed by these revolutionizing aircraft? You know Dubai and Singapore are major hubs as is Heathrow and Frankfurt. If big aircraft are dying then small aircraft are going extinct as anything below A220 is dead already and they are looking enlarge A220 as well.

Being lightweight means nothing and is hindrance for the future when the future means ever bigger engines and electric batteries. 777x is not struggling if it is because of it's size but because it has a competition of A350 that is better in almost every way..



C'mon man.

1. The 77X is still in testing and we do not know exactly how things will stack up; however, to say the A350 is better in almost every way is just a naive and stupid idea. The A350 is a wonder plane, but it too has its shortcomings and can't compete with the 777X in every way.

2. The A380 too good of an aircraft? Bro, get with the program. It died for a reason - it wasn't good enough!
Yes, the A380 is a good plane, but not nearly good enough to be competitive. I love flying on it because I love aviation, but the math doesn't support it.
Whatever
 
Vladex
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:51 pm

Revelation wrote:
Vladex wrote:
Being lightweight means nothing and is hindrance for the future when the future means ever bigger engines and electric batteries. 777x is not struggling if it is because of it's size but because it has a competition of A350 that is better in almost every way..

A350 is successful but 777x is not struggling, it has more orders before EIS than the number of A380s ever built, for a far lower investment than A380 ever was.


and so does 737 max as a matter of fact speaking of investments, orders and alleged profits. It's still far less of an aircraft compared to its direct competition and it's only there because of duopoly.
 
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SQ22
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Re: If the A380 was designed in 2020

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:53 pm

The fate of the a 380 has been discussed in several previous threads, so there is not really any need for just another A380 thread.

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