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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:03 am

Looks like from today all QF flights to LAX are being operated by 789's
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:07 am

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redroo
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:13 am

qf789 wrote:
EK413 wrote:
Aviator34ID wrote:
Has anybody seen any photos of the parked fleets yet?

Photos of the 3 VA Heavies in BNE.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/with/49684660933/

Western Australia, South Australia to close borders in response to coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/amp.abc.n ... e/12079044

If this were to happen it’s definitely got to be the end 1 of the 2 carriers


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I would expect that both VA and QF will cut to the bone, wouldnt rule out cuts around 80-90% of previously planned capacity.

Ok the next thing I am going to say might be controversial but it did cross my mind 2 weeks ago and I am leaning more towards it.

I would think with states closing their borders a nation wide grounding of commercial aircraft could happen as early as this week. Separately I have heard a rumour come out of PER, at first I didnt believe but now wouldnt be surprised if it happen and its not good news

Meanwhile one ground handling company has sent out emails to its entire workforce today standing down the workforce till mid June



National shutdown for pax is inevitable IMHO given the border closures. I expect cargo flights to continue, particularly over here.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:39 am

Have started a list on stored aircraft, feel free to add or correct, below are the ones that have either not flown for a few days or have done repositioning flights

AVV

QANTAS

738 - VXG, VYA, VYC, VYL, VZF

VIRGIN

A332 - XFC

BNE

QANTAS

738 - VXE, VXI, VZW, VZY
A332 - EBA
A333 - QPH

VIRGIN

77W - VPF, VPH
A332 - XFG

CBR

QANTAS

717 - NXI, NXR

MEL

JETSTAR

788 - VKI

VIRGIN

A332 - XFD, XFH

PER

QANTAS

F100 - NHV

VIRGIN

A320 - FNP
A332 - XFE
F100 - FWH
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EK413
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Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:52 am

qf789 wrote:
EK413 wrote:
qf789 wrote:

I would expect that both VA and QF will cut to the bone, wouldnt rule out cuts around 80-90% of previously planned capacity.

Ok the next thing I am going to say might be controversial but it did cross my mind 2 weeks ago and I am leaning more towards it.

I would think with states closing their borders a nation wide grounding of commercial aircraft could happen as early as this week. Separately I have heard a rumour come out of PER, at first I didnt believe but now wouldnt be surprised if it happen and its not good news

Meanwhile one ground handling company has sent out emails to its entire workforce today standing down the workforce till mid June

I’ve heard similar news and workforce will be on paid and non-paid leave...

Not good at all...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


No it isnt. In other news all 5 QF 747's to be sent to ASP for storage this week

https://www.smh.com.au/national/tighter ... 1584857452

I won’t elaborate, have colleagues which have been offered to take accumulated leave and leave without pay.


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D7A330
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:57 am

qf789 wrote:
Have started a list on stored aircraft, feel free to add or correct, below are the ones that have either not flown for a few days or have done repositioning flights

AVV

QANTAS

738 - VXG, VYA, VYC, VYL, VZF

VIRGIN

A332 - XFC

BNE

QANTAS

738 - VXE, VXI, VZW, VZY
A332 - EBA
A333 - QPH

VIRGIN

77W - VPF, VPH
A332 - XFG

CBR

QANTAS

717 - NXI, NXR

MEL

JETSTAR

788 - VKI

VIRGIN

A332 - XFD, XFH

PER

QANTAS

F100 - NHV

VIRGIN

A320 - FNP
A332 - XFE
F100 - FWH


Add XZB to the QF 738 list. Qantas source says ADL, however I watched it fly to AVV on FR24
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:34 am

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:37 am

RyanairGuru wrote:


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


He will have been isolated for over 14 days by next Friday, at least by my reading.

If it hasn't been been 14 days from returning overseas then absolutely do not go under any circumstances.

Assuming you have self-isolated appropriately I say go for it unless you are symptomatic or have recently been in contact with someone who is. I'm sure reasonable minds will differ on this, but IMHO as much as we need to 'flatten the peak' of the virus we also need to flatten the peak of the economic devastation that's staring us in the face. People *must* continue spending money if we are to avoid the worse, and not just on toilet paper and pasta. It's the only way we can help stem the scale of impending job losses.[/quote]


Yeah your maths aware spot on, it will be 14 days of isolation. But I’m watching the situation. Already cancelled my Fiji and Europe trips. Hoping I can defer Europe by about a month. I’ll make a decision on HTI in the next day or two.

Thanks for all of your responses, much appreciated.
C11973
Cheers,
C1973
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:48 am

^^Back to the days of the domestic pilots dispute in 1989 in terms of very little commercial ac flying. (and that went on for some 6 months or more) Back then, it was no pilots, now a different reason, but the effects are the same. This time however I would expect cargo to be still operating along with the bare minimum essential domestic pax travel (in '89 the RAAF filled the void). Yep, not good for the whole industry let alone for those who use it. I think the term is "the new normal" (however temporary). I expect some will say I am being flippant, but it is the reality. Having said that, the industry will find its feet again in the long term, the industry is a very resilient one, as is the population at large.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:14 am

a320fan wrote:
With the government now saying to avoid any unnecessary interstate travel I expect to hear of further capacity cutbacks domestically. I also wouldn’t be surprised of the imminent winding down and closure of TT.


Tigerair is already getting shut down once this months flights are done
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:51 am

Etihad changes

BNE - no change
MEL - reduces from 14 to 8 weekly, EY460/461 789 continues to be operated instead of previously planned 77W eff 29 Mar 20
SYD - EY450/451 77W continues to operate, 31 Mar - 30 Jun 20, EY454/455 789 replaces A388 1-10 Apr, 77W operates from 11 Apr 20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21mar20/
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IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:04 am

qf789 wrote:
Etihad changes

BNE - no change
MEL - reduces from 14 to 8 weekly, EY460/461 789 continues to be operated instead of previously planned 77W eff 29 Mar 20
SYD - EY450/451 77W continues to operate, 31 Mar - 30 Jun 20, EY454/455 789 replaces A388 1-10 Apr, 77W operates from 11 Apr 20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21mar20/


Honestly it’s not even worth following all these changes as they change so often. Each day govts make different decisions which significantly alter travel demand.

Just how EY are filling that many seats into/out of Australia is hard to work out. Cargo must be a significant driver of this level of service to offset the emptier passenger cabins.

With Singapore’s announcement of changes to its entry/transit requirement, I could also see SQ making further adjustments, unless it is also looking at freight demand.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:41 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Etihad changes

BNE - no change
MEL - reduces from 14 to 8 weekly, EY460/461 789 continues to be operated instead of previously planned 77W eff 29 Mar 20
SYD - EY450/451 77W continues to operate, 31 Mar - 30 Jun 20, EY454/455 789 replaces A388 1-10 Apr, 77W operates from 11 Apr 20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21mar20/


Honestly it’s not even worth following all these changes as they change so often. Each day govts make different decisions which significantly alter travel demand.

Just how EY are filling that many seats into/out of Australia is hard to work out. Cargo must be a significant driver of this level of service to offset the emptier passenger cabins.

With Singapore’s announcement of changes to its entry/transit requirement, I could also see SQ making further adjustments, unless it is also looking at freight demand.


Flights heading north are packed! Everyone is trying to get home asap. Flights to the US/Canada have a back log of weeks... I’d imagine it’s the same to Europe.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:11 pm

Just been reading, LO is operating a repatriation flight from SYD, believe it may be next Saturday, not 100% sure on that detail
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:34 pm

smi0006 wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Etihad changes

BNE - no change
MEL - reduces from 14 to 8 weekly, EY460/461 789 continues to be operated instead of previously planned 77W eff 29 Mar 20
SYD - EY450/451 77W continues to operate, 31 Mar - 30 Jun 20, EY454/455 789 replaces A388 1-10 Apr, 77W operates from 11 Apr 20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21mar20/


Honestly it’s not even worth following all these changes as they change so often. Each day govts make different decisions which significantly alter travel demand.

Just how EY are filling that many seats into/out of Australia is hard to work out. Cargo must be a significant driver of this level of service to offset the emptier passenger cabins.

With Singapore’s announcement of changes to its entry/transit requirement, I could also see SQ making further adjustments, unless it is also looking at freight demand.


Flights heading north are packed! Everyone is trying to get home asap. Flights to the US/Canada have a back log of weeks... I’d imagine it’s the same to Europe.


Understandable, but once that demand dries up, there won’t be anything else to rely on.

These schedules seem to be looking at a period into June, so will be interesting to see how things go over the next couple of months for many of these carriers that are still looking at operating services.

Such a nightmare all around.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:46 pm

EK413 wrote:


Why are they keeping the 747s. Can’t see a situation where there will be demand uplift significant enough before they were due to be retired anyway.

Separately, the A380 active fleet is down to 6. Tomorrow after QF12 arrives, it will be down to 5. On Tuesday after arrival of QF8, it will be down to 4. The final 4 will finish by the weekend after final QF1/2 and QF7/8 are finished.... for now.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:58 pm

A curosity: on 29 March SYD-WAW by LO on B789 (22h55min). Repatriation flight for Poles and probably the first ever direct flight between Australia and Poland. The flight departures exactly at midnight, so it is actually in between Sat and Sun.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:06 pm

artflyer wrote:
A curosity: on 29 March SYD-WAW by LO on B789 (22h55min). Repatriation flight for Poles and probably the first ever direct flight between Australia and Poland. The flight departures exactly at midnight, so it is actually in between Sat and Sun.


First ever SYD-Europe nonstop? I know it’s been done a number of times in the opposite direction...

Do we know what time the aircraft will arrive? I imagine on Friday maybe to give crews adequate rest.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:15 pm

redroo wrote:
National shutdown for pax is inevitable IMHO given the border closures. I expect cargo flights to continue, particularly over here.


There’ll still be a skeleton domestic operation. There needs to be some travel for work related purposes, transfer of essential employees and government personnel whom are exempt from isolation requirements. It would probably be no more than a handful of flights per day between each major city. It would be government subsidised as well I’d say. In addition to regional services whom rely on air travel solely for survival.

In addition a lot of freight is carried in the holds of pax aircraft and that’ll need to keep flying.

In addition a lot of remote mines and oil and gas work is done Fly in fly out so that’ll need to continue. There is even some talk of additional flights because both mining companies and airline pax will demand a spare seat between pax in economy, so more flights needed.

And another reasoning, when the virus is in decline and the lockdowns are lifted the airlines need to get back up to original capacity quite quickly. Their pilots have recency requirements that require them to fly once within a period of several weeks. If not they need to undergo simulator retraining which is costly and time consuming when they will be needed back quickly. So it makes sense to keep a bare skeleton operation and rotate the flying amongst the pilots to ensure they will be ready to go when needed at full capacity. It may be harder to restart the airline than shut it in this case.

But overall it’ll be down to about 5-10% of previous total capacity for several months, and unfortunately it will only take one airline group to do that flying. And I think it pretty obvious of the two airline groups in Australia which one will be carrying it out and which one will sadly no longer exist.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:20 pm

LO 787's are premium cabin light so will need to stop somewhere- maybe BKK.
FYI in the early 90's LO operated scheduled charters to SYD with IL-62's.
 
artflyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:26 pm

qf002 wrote:
artflyer wrote:
A curosity: on 29 March SYD-WAW by LO on B789 (22h55min). Repatriation flight for Poles and probably the first ever direct flight between Australia and Poland. The flight departures exactly at midnight, so it is actually in between Sat and Sun.


First ever SYD-Europe nonstop? I know it’s been done a number of times in the opposite direction...

Do we know what time the aircraft will arrive? I imagine on Friday maybe to give crews adequate rest.


I don't know how about SYD-Europe, but Australia-Poland for sure.

The WAW-SYD flight will be without pax, so the timing has not been disclosed.

SYD-WAW is shown on LO's webpage as a direct flight and it indeed seems so, as on this very date there will also be two repatriation flights SIN-WAW, but both on B788. They do not foresee to take anybody onboard of B789 in SIN on that day. LO will also be flying to MLN and CEB the day before.
 
Qantas737
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:47 pm

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Yeah your maths aware spot on, it will be 14 days of isolation. But I’m watching the situation. Already cancelled my Fiji and Europe trips. Hoping I can defer Europe by about a month. I’ll make a decision on HTI in the next day or two.

Thanks for all of your responses, much appreciated.
C11973


I think the decision has been made for you with Hamilton Island closed for business. I'm actually surprised you were even still considering going with all the recent developments and at the rate in which this scenario we find ourselves in is escalating.

https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/n ... b3cd0536e2
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:29 pm

artflyer wrote:
A curosity: on 29 March SYD-WAW by LO on B789 (22h55min). Repatriation flight for Poles and probably the first ever direct flight between Australia and Poland. The flight departures exactly at midnight, so it is actually in between Sat and Sun.


they get a curfew exemption?
 
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Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:01 pm

Flyerqf wrote:
EK413 wrote:


Why are they keeping the 747s. Can’t see a situation where there will be demand uplift significant enough before they were due to be retired anyway.

Separately, the A380 active fleet is down to 6. Tomorrow after QF12 arrives, it will be down to 5. On Tuesday after arrival of QF8, it will be down to 4. The final 4 will finish by the weekend after final QF1/2 and QF7/8 are finished.... for now.


There were 3 x B789 scheduled for delivery this year & without a doubt QF will be looking at delaying their delivery. As a result B744 retirement will be delayed, the B744 will continue operating the SYD-SCL & the SYD-SFO reverts back to B744 due to MEL/BNE-SFO being dropped. By freeing up the B789s allows QF to operate MEL/SYD-PER-LHR which of cause was the plan prior to our border closures so we can expect more changes.


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Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:23 pm

El Al seem to be doing a repatriation flight with a flight scheduled from TLV to PER tomorrow. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ELY ... /LLBG/YPPH
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:38 pm

rtav wrote:
El Al seem to be doing a repatriation flight with a flight scheduled from TLV to PER tomorrow. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ELY ... /LLBG/YPPH

So we will get an El Al flight to Aus this year, just not the one we were expecting.
A319, A320, A321, A330-200, A350-900, A380, 737-700, 737-800, 777-200ER, 777-300, 777-300ER, 787-8, Q300, Q400
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:54 pm

REX will suspend all RPT services except for Queensland from April 6th, shares are in trading halt today.
https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/ ... queensland
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:18 am

EK413 wrote:
Flyerqf wrote:
EK413 wrote:


Why are they keeping the 747s. Can’t see a situation where there will be demand uplift significant enough before they were due to be retired anyway.

Separately, the A380 active fleet is down to 6. Tomorrow after QF12 arrives, it will be down to 5. On Tuesday after arrival of QF8, it will be down to 4. The final 4 will finish by the weekend after final QF1/2 and QF7/8 are finished.... for now.


There were 3 x B789 scheduled for delivery this year & without a doubt QF will be looking at delaying their delivery. As a result B744 retirement will be delayed, the B744 will continue operating the SYD-SCL & the SYD-SFO reverts back to B744 due to MEL/BNE-SFO being dropped. By freeing up the B789s allows QF to operate MEL/SYD-PER-LHR which of cause was the plan prior to our border closures so we can expect more changes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I do agree to a point EK413 but by retiring the 744 it eliminates a type, but as you say the 744s are useful, but more smaller aircraft are likely better for the medium term, what does this mean for the A380 fleet? Some are parked longer than others? maybe keep 744s and some A380s remain parked short term atleast?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:23 am

EK413 wrote:
Flyerqf wrote:
EK413 wrote:


Why are they keeping the 747s. Can’t see a situation where there will be demand uplift significant enough before they were due to be retired anyway.

Separately, the A380 active fleet is down to 6. Tomorrow after QF12 arrives, it will be down to 5. On Tuesday after arrival of QF8, it will be down to 4. The final 4 will finish by the weekend after final QF1/2 and QF7/8 are finished.... for now.


There were 3 x B789 scheduled for delivery this year & without a doubt QF will be looking at delaying their delivery. As a result B744 retirement will be delayed, the B744 will continue operating the SYD-SCL & the SYD-SFO reverts back to B744 due to MEL/BNE-SFO being dropped. By freeing up the B789s allows QF to operate MEL/SYD-PER-LHR which of cause was the plan prior to our border closures so we can expect more changes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


QF have already announced the suspension of all international services. This will likely be ongoing for most of the year. Any services that resume will be a slow ramp up and not a sudden resumption of the old schedule. The 789s will probably form the backbone of the resumed intl network with a330s to support and A380s ready to be gradually brought back once needed to satisfy increases in demand on certain routes. The 744 is unfortunately done and I expect they’ll be sent to the desert once able in the second half of this year.
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EK413
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Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:57 am

a320fan wrote:
EK413 wrote:
Flyerqf wrote:

Why are they keeping the 747s. Can’t see a situation where there will be demand uplift significant enough before they were due to be retired anyway.

Separately, the A380 active fleet is down to 6. Tomorrow after QF12 arrives, it will be down to 5. On Tuesday after arrival of QF8, it will be down to 4. The final 4 will finish by the weekend after final QF1/2 and QF7/8 are finished.... for now.


There were 3 x B789 scheduled for delivery this year & without a doubt QF will be looking at delaying their delivery. As a result B744 retirement will be delayed, the B744 will continue operating the SYD-SCL & the SYD-SFO reverts back to B744 due to MEL/BNE-SFO being dropped. By freeing up the B789s allows QF to operate MEL/SYD-PER-LHR which of cause was the plan prior to our border closures so we can expect more changes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


QF have already announced the suspension of all international services. This will likely be ongoing for most of the year. Any services that resume will be a slow ramp up and not a sudden resumption of the old schedule. The 789s will probably form the backbone of the resumed intl network with a330s to support and A380s ready to be gradually brought back once needed to satisfy increases in demand on certain routes. The 744 is unfortunately done and I expect they’ll be sent to the desert once able in the second half of this year.

Airlines over the globe announced grounding of their A380 fleet prior to the border shutdown which indicates an aircraft with the capacity of an A380 can’t be operated efficiently. As for QF case, I doubt their A380’s would be retired earlier than planned, if and when the market gradually resumes, confidence builds up hopefully the A380’s return to service but until then I’d say the B744 will back fill routes such as SCL,JNB & SFO (which is why they are ASP bound for storage) allowing the B789’s to be deployed on key markets such as SYD/MEL-PER-LHR, SYD-LAX, SYD-DFW, SYD-HND, SYD/MEL-SIN to name a few. The market is changing on a day to day basis so anything predicted now could change in the next 12-24 hours so I’d take it with a grain of salt. Such an unpredictable market right now.


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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:33 am

a320fan wrote:
QF have already announced the suspension of all international services. This will likely be ongoing for most of the year. Any services that resume will be a slow ramp up and not a sudden resumption of the old schedule. The 789s will probably form the backbone of the resumed intl network with a330s to support and A380s ready to be gradually brought back once needed to satisfy increases in demand on certain routes. The 744 is unfortunately done and I expect they’ll be sent to the desert once able in the second half of this year.


I think it is fair to say that on the other side of this is a whole new demand scenario that won't resemble the current one much more than general traffic directional flows (and even then some of them will change).
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:00 am

Facing a total ban on visitors and transit passengers at Changi as of tonight, Singapore Airlines has cut 96% capacity and will fly only NINE aircraft between SQ and Silk.

Right now all SQ flights to Australia a few days away are showing as zero'd out, I don't expect to see any SIN-AU flights from given both countries travel restrictions and 14-day self-isolation requirements.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... strictions
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:04 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Facing a total ban on visitors and transit passengers at Changi as of tonight, Singapore Airlines has cut 96% capacity and will fly only NINE aircraft between SQ and Silk.

Right now all SQ flights to Australia a few days away are showing as zero'd out, I don't expect to see any SIN-AU flights from given both countries travel restrictions and 14-day self-isolation requirements.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... strictions


And where on earth will they park their fleet - surely they cannot put it all on the island?
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:19 am

Isn' there a military base or airport they could use? But even so, I am sure they will need to find extra storage somewhere else.
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:21 am

qf2220 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Facing a total ban on visitors and transit passengers at Changi as of tonight, Singapore Airlines has cut 96% capacity and will fly only NINE aircraft between SQ and Silk.

Right now all SQ flights to Australia a few days away are showing as zero'd out, I don't expect to see any SIN-AU flights from given both countries travel restrictions and 14-day self-isolation requirements.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... strictions


And where on earth will they park their fleet - surely they cannot put it all on the island?

ASP perhaps, not sure how much capacity they can take on but it’s a starting point.


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DavidByrne
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:33 am

Not being negative, but realistic: I personally think that the "ramp up" of services "post-virus" that some are already postulating will be many, many months away, and that when it occurs it will be a long and slow process. I believe that we will look back on early 2020 as "peak flying" because regardless of the progress of the virus, the economic damage that will occur over the next six months will be so serious that neither companies nor individuals will have the cash available to buy air travel. And companies, in particular, will learn that videoconferencing is OK and economical, and will not go back to allowing nearly as much executive or staff travel. Many, many routes operated by QF, VA (if it survives, which is moot), NZ etc will never reopen. I strongly suspect that budget carriers like JQ and TT will effectively close their doors. The suggestion that either the 744s or the A380s will come back into the QF fleet is to my mind very unlikely. In the same vein, I doubt we will see the 77E or 77W in NZ colours after all this is over, and there have to be questions also about the 787-10.

I appreciate that there are airline staff (with whom I strongly sympathise) out there who are clinging to the hope that normality can and will be restored. So far, however, almost every dire prediction that has been made (of which many, including my own predictions, have been criticised as being too extreme) has within a matter of days turned out to be overly optimistic. Alas, I don't see this changing for a while.
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EK413
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Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:42 am

& on that note Australia has its first victim...

This morning REX announced that it would shutdown its expansive Regular Public Transport (RPT) network in all Australian States, except Queensland, where service are underwritten by the State Government.

Operations will cease on Monday 06APR20, unless Federal and State Governments are willing to underwrite the losses.

Regional Express fleet consist of 57 Saab 340 aircraft across all Australian States.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.new ... 7e4809e3ff

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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:45 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Not being negative, but realistic: I personally think that the "ramp up" of services "post-virus" that some are already postulating will be many, many months away, and that when it occurs it will be a long and slow process. I believe that we will look back on early 2020 as "peak flying" because regardless of the progress of the virus, the economic damage that will occur over the next six months will be so serious that neither companies nor individuals will have the cash available to buy air travel. And companies, in particular, will learn that videoconferencing is OK and economical, and will not go back to allowing nearly as much executive or staff travel. Many, many routes operated by QF, VA (if it survives, which is moot), NZ etc will never reopen. I strongly suspect that budget carriers like JQ and TT will effectively close their doors. The suggestion that either the 744s or the A380s will come back into the QF fleet is to my mind very unlikely. In the same vein, I doubt we will see the 77E or 77W in NZ colours after all this is over, and there have to be questions also about the 787-10.

I appreciate that there are airline staff (with whom I strongly sympathise) out there who are clinging to the hope that normality can and will be restored. So far, however, almost every dire prediction that has been made (of which many, including my own predictions, have been criticised as being too extreme) has within a matter of days turned out to be overly optimistic. Alas, I don't see this changing for a while.

We all have absolutely no idea what will happen on the back-end of this crisis. Traffic may recover quickly or ramp up more slowly over time but there is a saying in business that you should never waste a crisis so I'm sure CEOs may use the crisis as an opportunity to eliminate costs that would be seriously analysed in normal circumstances but will be largely ignored in this strange world. Examples of this could be the retirement of VA's A330s or JQ's 787s.

I doubt the 747s will return. They are gradually being cycled out to avoid major maintenance cycles; there is no way QF will want to do any major maintenance on them.

The A380s are highly profitable on the trunk routes QF use them on during normal times; they have nothing in their fleet that can replace them in the medium term particularly as capital purchases are likely to be cut back rather than expanded. If anything, I suspect Sunrise will be deferred for 12 to 18 months.
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DavidByrne
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:01 am

tullamarine wrote:
We all have absolutely no idea what will happen on the back-end of this crisis. Traffic may recover quickly or ramp up more slowly over time but there is a saying in business that you should never waste a crisis so I'm sure CEOs may use the crisis as an opportunity to eliminate costs that would be seriously analysed in normal circumstances but will be largely ignored in this strange world. Examples of this could be the retirement of VA's A330s or JQ's 787s.

I doubt the 747s will return. They are gradually being cycled out to avoid major maintenance cycles; there is no way QF will want to do any major maintenance on them.

The A380s are highly profitable on the trunk routes QF use them on during normal times; they have nothing in their fleet that can replace them in the medium term particularly as capital purchases are likely to be cut back rather than expanded. If anything, I suspect Sunrise will be deferred for 12 to 18 months.

I sincerely hope you're correct. But I think that capital purchases won't just be scaled back but virtually eliminated for the next few years, and I worry that both Airbus and Boeing may be on life-support soon. Project Sunrise will be comatose for the foreseeable future while all airlines grapple with getting back a bread-and-butter income. Air fares, meanwhile, will go up post-crisis as those airlines that survive have to start paying back the huge loans they will have taken out to keep themselves solvent in the meantime. So don't expect a huge boost in leisure travel anytime soon.
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Thatcher
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:05 am

tullamarine wrote:
We all have absolutely no idea what will happen on the back-end of this crisis. Traffic may recover quickly or ramp up more slowly over time but there is a saying in business that you should never waste a crisis so I'm sure CEOs may use the crisis as an opportunity to eliminate costs that would be seriously analysed in normal circumstances but will be largely ignored in this strange world.


Agreed. The multi-national I am employed by used the GFC to eliminate 'J' travel for trips less than, I think, eight hours. That was never rescinded. So there will undoubtedly be cost cutting in the name of COVID-19 that will become permanent.

I empathise with travel industry staff thru this btw. It's not just them though - my partner is unemployed as of today, she worked in hospitality. And we have/had our home on the market - several months worth of income spent on unrecoverable marketing and styling expenses if we don't sell, many months of income gone via a lower price if we do sell. That hurts. We were gonna retire soon too, but everyone's Super has been decimated. We're all hurting, some are dying.
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Thatcher
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:33 am

Don't recall it being mentioned here, apologies if it was - VA's credit rating has been downgraded, "descending into junk" status according to The Australian three days ago.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/virgin-credit-rating-descending-into-junk/news-story/80a055212c87b8294a7f5891f216417c

Virgin Australia's credit rating took a further stride into junk territory on Friday, with Moody's downgrading the airline's corporate rating from B2 to B3, and its unsecured rating to a “currently vulnerable” Caa1. A rating of Caa1 indicates a speculative investment carrying substantial credit risk.
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TasFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:43 am

 
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allrite
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:59 am

I wonder what the result of all those Qantas cancellations being turned into travel vouchers will be once passengers can travel again. Will there be a mini resurgence in travel as passengers attempt to convert them to trips? Will fare increases mean they effectively lose a lot of value? Or will Qantas be forced to convert them into full refunds?
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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:07 am

allrite wrote:
I wonder what the result of all those Qantas cancellations being turned into travel vouchers will be once passengers can travel again. Will there be a mini resurgence in travel as passengers attempt to convert them to trips? Will fare increases mean they effectively lose a lot of value? Or will Qantas be forced to convert them into full refunds?

You would hope ACCC is advising QF of its obligations and what consequences it can expect if it attempts to gouge disrupted pax.
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Thatcher
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:55 am

Emirates' current Australia plans according to Routes online:

Based on GDS schedule and inventory listing, Emirates operation for the period of 25MAR20 – 31MAR20 as follows. As schedule change remains ongoing, Information listed below is as of 0240GMT 23MAR20.

Dubai – Melbourne Departure from Dubai scheduled on 27MAR20 with A380 (Reservation not open)
Dubai – Sydney 25MAR20 – 31MAR20 1 daily A380

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/290441/emirates-25mar20-31mar20-operations-as-of-0240gmt-23mar20/
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Thatcher
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:07 am

allrite wrote:
I wonder what the result of all those Qantas cancellations being turned into travel vouchers will be once passengers can travel again. Will there be a mini resurgence in travel as passengers attempt to convert them to trips? Will fare increases mean they effectively lose a lot of value? Or will Qantas be forced to convert them into full refunds?


I wonder whether the original offers to convert bookings to vouchers was good PR, or just the work of a cunning corporation.

I converted domestic JQ bookings for vouchers. Not really interested in making any trip within the required timeframe, I'll probably let the vouchers lapse. Now I'm wondering if we would have been eligible for an actual refund once the various travel bans came into place.
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qf2048
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:11 am

With parking space for aircraft around the country become an issue could some regional centres start to be used? I can remember seeing JQ 717's parked for months at Tamworth when they were transitioning from 717's to A320. Might be a cheaper option too.
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:50 am

Thatcher wrote:
Emirates' current Australia plans according to Routes online


Not current any more, EK is suspending ALL flights from March 25 for at least two weeks due to the UAE's ban on passenger flights.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ll-flights
 
Captdasbomb
Posts: 170
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:08 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:40 am

EK413 wrote:
Flyerqf wrote:
EK413 wrote:


Why are they keeping the 747s. Can’t see a situation where there will be demand uplift significant enough before they were due to be retired anyway.

Separately, the A380 active fleet is down to 6. Tomorrow after QF12 arrives, it will be down to 5. On Tuesday after arrival of QF8, it will be down to 4. The final 4 will finish by the weekend after final QF1/2 and QF7/8 are finished.... for now.


There were 3 x B789 scheduled for delivery this year & without a doubt QF will be looking at delaying their delivery. As a result B744 retirement will be delayed, the B744 will continue operating the SYD-SCL & the SYD-SFO reverts back to B744 due to MEL/BNE-SFO being dropped. By freeing up the B789s allows QF to operate MEL/SYD-PER-LHR which of cause was the plan prior to our border closures so we can expect more changes.


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It would make Cents to retire the entire 747s & get all pilots re-typed to 789s while the groundings are on. Not expecting demand to just pick up after
 
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Chipmunk1973
Posts: 249
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:03 am

Thatcher wrote:
allrite wrote:
I wonder what the result of all those Qantas cancellations being turned into travel vouchers will be once passengers can travel again. Will there be a mini resurgence in travel as passengers attempt to convert them to trips? Will fare increases mean they effectively lose a lot of value? Or will Qantas be forced to convert them into full refunds?


I wonder whether the original offers to convert bookings to vouchers was good PR, or just the work of a cunning corporation.

I converted domestic JQ bookings for vouchers. Not really interested in making any trip within the required timeframe, I'll probably let the vouchers lapse. Now I'm wondering if we would have been eligible for an actual refund once the various travel bans came into place.


I had three bookings to cancel and I vouchered all of them. I did have an option for a refund but that would have incurred some loss due to the type of booking class. Vouchers have retained full booking value.

It’s a useful measure for the airlines as whilst they’re holding your money, it does assist their financial liquidity.

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