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RainerBoeing777
Posts: 504
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:40 pm

in future NZ could fly to IAD? one of the popular connections of QF is Washington DC, I also think of DEN but I don't know if I can with the Hot & High conditions
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
Gasman
Posts: 2202
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:54 pm

NZ6 wrote:
Gasman wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if they shelve EWR too.


Interested to know why you say this?

While the market has dried up globally why stop or delay EWR?

  • We know NZ's into EWR long term and other sectors ORD/IAH took off like a rocket in the right conditions
  • We're yet to see any capacity adjustments in North America although I'm not ruling that out
  • We're still 6+ months away from launch and all other adjustments are short term
  • China is showing signs it's turned the corner...


I literally mean "I wouldn't be surprised". That's not the same as "I think it'll happen". Why do I think it might happen? Mainly because in tight times you hunker down and consolidate, and generally don't expose yourself to unnecessary risks. EWR is an unproven route and arguably riskier than most.

You could of course also argue that *postponement* of EWR would be an unnecessary risk in itself.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1552
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:24 pm

Gasman wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Gasman wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if they shelve EWR too.


Interested to know why you say this?

While the market has dried up globally why stop or delay EWR?

  • We know NZ's into EWR long term and other sectors ORD/IAH took off like a rocket in the right conditions
  • We're yet to see any capacity adjustments in North America although I'm not ruling that out
  • We're still 6+ months away from launch and all other adjustments are short term
  • China is showing signs it's turned the corner...


I literally mean "I wouldn't be surprised". That's not the same as "I think it'll happen". Why do I think it might happen? Mainly because in tight times you hunker down and consolidate, and generally don't expose yourself to unnecessary risks. EWR is an unproven route and arguably riskier than most.

You could of course also argue that *postponement* of EWR would be an unnecessary risk in itself.


Oh right. That's all I was asking.
 
tom90
Posts: 11
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 8:12 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:02 pm

Does anyone know if ZK-OKO has Wifi yet?
 
PA515
Posts: 1595
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:22 pm

tom90 wrote:
Does anyone know if ZK-OKO has Wifi yet?

ZK-OKO has had Wifi since 30 May 2018.

The two 77Ws without Wifi are ZK-OKM and ZK-OKR.

PA515
 
tom90
Posts: 11
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 8:12 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:27 pm

ZK-NZE will operate NZ109 & NZ112 this Friday 13 March. All going to plan I'll be on NZ112 that day :)

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-nze
 
PA515
Posts: 1595
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:54 pm

tom90 wrote:
ZK-NZE will operate NZ109 & NZ112 this Friday 13 March. All going to plan we I'll be on NZ112 that day :)

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-nze


At last, but don't think it will have Wifi. There's a 20 Feb 2020 photo without the engines and no satellite radome.

PA515
 
PA515
Posts: 1595
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:44 am

ZK-NZE just heading off on a test flight as NZ6232. They usually go to the East Cape and back.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-nze

PA515
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1646
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:37 am

My speculative prediction: coronavirus will spread seriously in the USA, and NZ and other countries will impose significant restrictions on travellers from North America. Air NZ's Pacific services will be drastically cut, and the carrier will need a bailout to survive. When the virus is contained, flights will resume but demand will be seriously reduced long-term. At the same time the flight-shaming phenomenon will catch on locally and NZ, like many other carriers, will find itself reduced a a significantly smaller "rump" long-term. The WB fleet will be reduced to just 22 aircraft (787-9s and 787-10s only) and there will be no 77W replacement required.

Remember: you read it here first!
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
fkfnz
Posts: 18
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 1:51 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:49 am

DavidByrne wrote:
My speculative prediction: coronavirus will spread seriously in the USA, and NZ and other countries will impose significant restrictions on travellers from North America. Air NZ's Pacific services will be drastically cut, and the carrier will need a bailout to survive. When the virus is contained, flights will resume but demand will be seriously reduced long-term. At the same time the flight-shaming phenomenon will catch on locally and NZ, like many other carriers, will find itself reduced a a significantly smaller "rump" long-term. The WB fleet will be reduced to just 22 aircraft (787-9s and 787-10s only) and there will be no 77W replacement required.

Remember: you read it here first!


And AIAL will be able to delay any meaningful upgrades for a few more years!
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 1017
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:55 am

I find it unlikely that the NZ government takes travel restrictions above the current levels. At most adding countries to the 'please isolate yourself for 14 days please' list.

Air NZ will be hurting but will be well placed to jump back in a few months. Flight shaming will only work to a certain level for us. It isn't like we can jump on a train and be in another country in 3 hours.
 
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Zkpilot
Posts: 4513
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:02 am

DavidByrne wrote:
My speculative prediction: coronavirus will spread seriously in the USA, and NZ and other countries will impose significant restrictions on travellers from North America. Air NZ's Pacific services will be drastically cut, and the carrier will need a bailout to survive. When the virus is contained, flights will resume but demand will be seriously reduced long-term. At the same time the flight-shaming phenomenon will catch on locally and NZ, like many other carriers, will find itself reduced a a significantly smaller "rump" long-term. The WB fleet will be reduced to just 22 aircraft (787-9s and 787-10s only) and there will be no 77W replacement required.

Remember: you read it here first!

:roll:
Once it’s spread worldwide and in high enough numbers, it simply becomes like the flu (albeit about 10x more lethal). Beyond containment then... no point trying, people will go back to flying and there will be significant pent up demand.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3805
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:36 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
I find it unlikely that the NZ government takes travel restrictions above the current levels. At most adding countries to the 'please isolate yourself for 14 days please' list.

Air NZ will be hurting but will be well placed to jump back in a few months. Flight shaming will only work to a certain level for us. It isn't like we can jump on a train and be in another country in 3 hours.


I would expect the EU to be added to the list by Friday afternoon, the government has just signalled there is more restrictions on the way.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1646
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:29 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
I find it unlikely that the NZ government takes travel restrictions above the current levels. At most adding countries to the 'please isolate yourself for 14 days please' list.

Air NZ will be hurting but will be well placed to jump back in a few months. Flight shaming will only work to a certain level for us. It isn't like we can jump on a train and be in another country in 3 hours.

I think the signs are there that there may well be further travel restrictions and quite soon. What I think may hurt airlines is that businesses will be forced to take up teleconferencing in a big way - and many will find that it's cheaper and more acceptable from an environmental point of view and will decide to continue to do that after the crisis is over for many former face-to-face meetings.

I wish it were otherwise, but I fear we may already have reached "peak flying" and the trend from now may be downward. If flying ever does recover to the current levels, I think it may be a matter of years in the future.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1646
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:37 am

Zkpilot wrote:
Once it’s spread worldwide and in high enough numbers, it simply becomes like the flu (albeit about 10x more lethal). Beyond containment then... no point trying, people will go back to flying and there will be significant pent up demand.

I think that's a very optimistic view. The experts are saying it may ultimately infect 60-70% of the global population, and if 2% mortality continues that's around 1.3% of the global population dying. That's about a million Germans, a million French, a million Brits. Numbers like that are going to scare the shit out of many travellers and regardless of the logic people will be really reluctant to travel any time soon. Especially given there's no drugs for treatment, no immunity in the community and no vaccine. Yet. Let's hope.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
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Zkpilot
Posts: 4513
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:57 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Once it’s spread worldwide and in high enough numbers, it simply becomes like the flu (albeit about 10x more lethal). Beyond containment then... no point trying, people will go back to flying and there will be significant pent up demand.

I think that's a very optimistic view. The experts are saying it may ultimately infect 60-70% of the global population, and if 2% mortality continues that's around 1.3% of the global population dying. That's about a million Germans, a million French, a million Brits. Numbers like that are going to scare the shit out of many travellers and regardless of the logic people will be really reluctant to travel any time soon. Especially given there's no drugs for treatment, no immunity in the community and no vaccine. Yet. Let's hope.

Exactly like I said once it spreads to enough (and I’ve also heard 70%) then not much can be done until a vaccine is created. So far as the economy is concerned, the vast majority of fatalities are elderly people or those whose health is compromised in other ways (in other words people less likely to travel). They are also in general (roughly) less economically “useful” so while it will be a great shame etc, the economic impact of even that great number of deaths does not necessarily have to be great.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1646
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:24 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
They are also in general (roughly) less economically “useful” so while it will be a great shame etc, the economic impact of even that great number of deaths does not necessarily have to be great.

I think it's a mistake to look at the impact on the airline industry primarily being dependent on the economic situation after the virus. In any event, I don't see the economic prospects as especially rosy: there were suggestions tonight that the world is entering a recession worse than the GFC (with economies like Italy being spoken of as "the next Greece").

What may affect the airline industry arguably more is the psychological impact of the virus: the fear of strangers, the desire to keep "safe" and a general turning inward rather than looking outward that we are already seeing. This will take some years to recover from, I think.

And the crisis will surely boost the use of electronic conferencing by business to the long term detriment of the airline industry.

For a carrier like NZ there will be no immunity from global trends. We should prepare ourselves for a contraction of international operations over a period of years, just as other carriers will have to do. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a 25% reduction in international operations over an extended period and a commensurate reduction in fleet size.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 12855
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:24 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
My speculative prediction: coronavirus will spread seriously in the USA, and NZ and other countries will impose significant restrictions on travellers from North America. Air NZ's Pacific services will be drastically cut, and the carrier will need a bailout to survive. When the virus is contained, flights will resume but demand will be seriously reduced long-term. At the same time the flight-shaming phenomenon will catch on locally and NZ, like many other carriers, will find itself reduced a a significantly smaller "rump" long-term. The WB fleet will be reduced to just 22 aircraft (787-9s and 787-10s only) and there will be no 77W replacement required.

Remember: you read it here first!


I can't see flight shaming working in an NZ context, we have no alternative, unlike Europe where you can catch a train, ferry or drive to another country we can't get anywhere unless we fly, kiwis understand the practicalities of our remote location. Any attempt at flight shaming will be met with all the contempt it deserves.
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 12855
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:32 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
Once it’s spread worldwide and in high enough numbers, it simply becomes like the flu (albeit about 10x more lethal). Beyond containment then... no point trying, people will go back to flying and there will be significant pent up demand.

I think that's a very optimistic view. The experts are saying it may ultimately infect 60-70% of the global population, and if 2% mortality continues that's around 1.3% of the global population dying. That's about a million Germans, a million French, a million Brits. Numbers like that are going to scare the shit out of many travellers and regardless of the logic people will be really reluctant to travel any time soon. Especially given there's no drugs for treatment, no immunity in the community and no vaccine. Yet. Let's hope.

Exactly like I said once it spreads to enough (and I’ve also heard 70%) then not much can be done until a vaccine is created. So far as the economy is concerned, the vast majority of fatalities are elderly people or those whose health is compromised in other ways (in other words people less likely to travel). They are also in general (roughly) less economically “useful” so while it will be a great shame etc, the economic impact of even that great number of deaths does not necessarily have to be great.


I've also read that obese people with there compromised immune systems will also be hit hard, the Pacific Islands, New Zealand and the US are going to have a real hard time of it.

There is a silver lining for some, it will get the younger generations off the hook for baby boomer pension payments going forward, Chloe and her anti boomer friends have to be happy with this outcome!

We're concerned about the occurrence of other risk factors for severe disease as this virus moves out into other parts of the world. For example, one of the risk factors for acute respiratory distress syndrome, or ARDS -- the most severe of the outcomes of COVID-19 infection -- is obesity. In parts of the world, including the US, where obesity is an epidemic problem, its likely we may see a different case fatality rate than we're seeing in China; that is, US fatalities may be less gender-specific and the rate of fatalities could be even higher than it is in China due to higher obesity rates among people 45 years or older.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1646
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:14 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
I can't see flight shaming working in an NZ context, we have no alternative, unlike Europe where you can catch a train, ferry or drive to another country we can't get anywhere unless we fly, kiwis understand the practicalities of our remote location. Any attempt at flight shaming will be met with all the contempt it deserves.

First, this ignores the fact that it's not just about kiwis but about the rest of the world as well. NZ is not going to survive on NZ citizens as pax alone.

Second, it's not all about international travel, but domestic as well. And there are alternatives to flying in many cases.

And third, I completely reject the idea that flight shaming deserves contempt. The world is much more than aviation (hard to realise that on A-net) and there are existential problems facing us which are obviously (and seriously) exacerbated by aviation.

We are in for huge changes to the way we live, work and spend our recreational time, and we shouldn't put our heads in the sand.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 12855
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:25 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
I can't see flight shaming working in an NZ context, we have no alternative, unlike Europe where you can catch a train, ferry or drive to another country we can't get anywhere unless we fly, kiwis understand the practicalities of our remote location. Any attempt at flight shaming will be met with all the contempt it deserves.

First, this ignores the fact that it's not just about kiwis but about the rest of the world as well. NZ is not going to survive on NZ citizens as pax alone.

Second, it's not all about international travel, but domestic as well. And there are alternatives to flying in many cases.

And third, I completely reject the idea that flight shaming deserves contempt. The world is much more than aviation (hard to realise that on A-net) and there are existential problems facing us which are obviously (and seriously) exacerbated by aviation.

We are in for huge changes to the way we live, work and spend our recreational time, and we shouldn't put our heads in the sand.


Even within NZ it takes far too long to get from Auckland to Wellington in a car, let alone points further south. We don’t have a domestic rail network, the cost to rebuild what little we have would run to many billions not the 400 or so million Matt L on Greater Auckland thinks it will, and that doesn’t solve inter Island travel.

I’m not all that bothered, even though I have been placed into quarantine today, life will continue, I think it will be similar to the recovery after 9/11, within a few months of this ending people will be back travelling again.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1552
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:25 pm

fkfnz wrote:
And AIAL will be able to delay any meaningful upgrades for a few more years!


I'd say this is a good reflection on what may happen. Based on it having happened several times previously.

Not directly or solely due to Caronavirus but the wider economic slowdown caused by it. It may well take some time to recover to the same point or better than it was in Dec/Jan so therefore AIAL may delay investment.

Fingers crossed they don't.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1552
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:21 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
My speculative prediction: coronavirus will spread seriously in the USA, and NZ and other countries will impose significant restrictions on travellers from North America. Air NZ's Pacific services will be drastically cut, and the carrier will need a bailout to survive. When the virus is contained, flights will resume but demand will be seriously reduced long-term. At the same time the flight-shaming phenomenon will catch on locally and NZ, like many other carriers, will find itself reduced a a significantly smaller "rump" long-term. The WB fleet will be reduced to just 22 aircraft (787-9s and 787-10s only) and there will be no 77W replacement required.

Remember: you read it here first!


Are you one of those stockpiling toilet paper? :lol:

It's a very bleak outlook you paint and it's all very much unknown so I can't argue you're wrong. I'd just argue the outlook isn't that bad.

Don't forget NZ has significant available cash in the business; in the area of over a billion dollars and there's still a slim chance they'll report a profit in FY20. Although that is becoming more and more unlikely as the weeks go on.

That cashflow will see them though for sometime before bailouts are needed and I strongly suspect the market and economy will balance out and start to recover in this time. It's also sometime before big payments are needed for new aircraft and who knows if the exco team have even started to consider delaying these.

NZ like QF and other airlines with good available cash are just dusting off the globally 'disaster' playbook. Scaling back services, freezing recruitment, freezing spend over $X value, sending staff away on paid / unpaid leave. Pushing the market with rock bottom pricing to generate some kind of revenue (You'll see something this weekend).

Like I mentioned last week, China is starting to get back on it's feet. Can we predict a similar path and timeline for the rest of the world?

While a lot of focus is going into throwing out the anchors and reducing cost ASAP. Planning is also happening now for how to stimulate a range of markets when the conditions are right so the airline can go back to it's "idling position" as quickly as it can.

I would say at this point, as the situation in America escalates, Gasman's question on EWR becomes an immediate consideration. Launching at the beginning of peak season is ideal and it'll be a big call to delay it should the market recover in the next 2-3 months.

Zkpilot wrote:
Once it’s spread worldwide and in high enough numbers, it simply becomes like the flu (albeit about 10x more lethal). Beyond containment then... no point trying, people will go back to flying and there will be significant pent up demand.


While true statistics can be so misleading.

The mortality rate of SARS was 9.6% while the Coronavirus is 2% and the vast majority of that 2% is made up of elderly (70+) who come from countries where air pollution is high and where smoking is still extremely common. For those under 50, the mortality rate is 0.4% and for children under 10 is 0%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/
https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s ... hould-drop.
 
a7ala
Posts: 353
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:53 pm

VA exiting AKL-RAR from 21JUL, AKL-TBU from 1MAY, and further reducing AKL-MEL and AKL-SYD.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200313/ ... 6jsdrj.pdf
 
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QuayWeeAir
Posts: 33
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2017 12:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:57 pm

a7ala wrote:
VA exiting AKL-RAR from 21JUL, AKL-TBU from 1MAY, and further reducing AKL-MEL and AKL-SYD.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200313/ ... 6jsdrj.pdf



I thought VA were doing quite well on the Raro flights... the times i flew them they were full.

Sad about Tonga though.... VA just couldn't compete against Air NZ and their mix of 777s, 787s, A320 & A321s. So that now leaves Air NZ as the only carrier on that route.... Wonder if we will see another reincarnation of Royal Tongan Airlines soon......
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1646
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 pm

NZ6 wrote:
[LAre you one of those stockpiling toilet paper? :lol:


Haha - no, not at all! Hope there's still some left when we run out though!

NZ6 wrote:
It's a very bleak outlook you paint and it's all very much unknown so I can't argue you're wrong. I'd just argue the outlook isn't that bad.

Don't forget NZ has significant available cash in the business; in the area of over a billion dollars and there's still a slim chance they'll report a profit in FY20. Although that is becoming more and more unlikely as the weeks go on.

That cashflow will see them though for sometime before bailouts are needed and I strongly suspect the market and economy will balance out and start to recover in this time. It's also sometime before big payments are needed for new aircraft and who knows if the exco team have even started to consider delaying these.

NZ like QF and other airlines with good available cash are just dusting off the globally 'disaster' playbook. Scaling back services, freezing recruitment, freezing spend over $X value, sending staff away on paid / unpaid leave. Pushing the market with rock bottom pricing to generate some kind of revenue (You'll see something this weekend).

Like I mentioned last week, China is starting to get back on it's feet. Can we predict a similar path and timeline for the rest of the world?

While a lot of focus is going into throwing out the anchors and reducing cost ASAP. Planning is also happening now for how to stimulate a range of markets when the conditions are right so the airline can go back to it's "idling position" as quickly as it can.

I would say at this point, as the situation in America escalates, Gasman's question on EWR becomes an immediate consideration. Launching at the beginning of peak season is ideal and it'll be a big call to delay it should the market recover in the next 2-3 moNths


Yes, it is a bleak outlook. I follow the international media closely and it's much more disturbing about the economic impact than our media here. Also much less optimistic about how long it will all last.

Of course, none of us know the real outcome. But I'd put money on NZ being a smaller airline in 2025 than it is today. Having said that, hope I'm wrong!
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:30 pm

NZ6 wrote:

Zkpilot wrote:
Once it’s spread worldwide and in high enough numbers, it simply becomes like the flu (albeit about 10x more lethal). Beyond containment then... no point trying, people will go back to flying and there will be significant pent up demand.


While true statistics can be so misleading.

The mortality rate of SARS was 9.6% while the Coronavirus is 2% and the vast majority of that 2% is made up of elderly (70+) who come from countries where air pollution is high and where smoking is still extremely common. For those under 50, the mortality rate is 0.4% and for children under 10 is 0%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/
https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s ... hould-drop.

It is far to early to say what the fatality rate is for Coronavirus, in places where it is well controlled and with good health systems (Singapore) it’s below 1%. In other places it’s already up to 5%. With dwindling supplies of things like masks and sanitizer etc it will be harder to treat especially in countries with already poor health care systems and/hard to isolate patients. Flu only has a 0.2% fatality rate so a rate of 2% is 10x that.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/20 ... id-19.html
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/sim ... -covid-19/
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
a7ala
Posts: 353
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:39 pm

QuayWeeAir wrote:
a7ala wrote:
VA exiting AKL-RAR from 21JUL, AKL-TBU from 1MAY, and further reducing AKL-MEL and AKL-SYD.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200313/ ... 6jsdrj.pdf



I thought VA were doing quite well on the Raro flights... the times i flew them they were full.

Sad about Tonga though.... VA just couldn't compete against Air NZ and their mix of 777s, 787s, A320 & A321s. So that now leaves Air NZ as the only carrier on that route.... Wonder if we will see another reincarnation of Royal Tongan Airlines soon......


I think you'll find no-one is doing well at the moment. Nothing to do with competition with Air NZ. Its all COVID-19.
 
Motorhussy
Posts: 3669
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:49 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:44 am

Zkpilot wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

Zkpilot wrote:
Once it’s spread worldwide and in high enough numbers, it simply becomes like the flu (albeit about 10x more lethal). Beyond containment then... no point trying, people will go back to flying and there will be significant pent up demand.


While true statistics can be so misleading.

The mortality rate of SARS was 9.6% while the Coronavirus is 2% and the vast majority of that 2% is made up of elderly (70+) who come from countries where air pollution is high and where smoking is still extremely common. For those under 50, the mortality rate is 0.4% and for children under 10 is 0%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/
https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s ... hould-drop.

It is far to early to say what the fatality rate is for Coronavirus, in places where it is well controlled and with good health systems (Singapore) it’s below 1%. In other places it’s already up to 5%. With dwindling supplies of things like masks and sanitizer etc it will be harder to treat especially in countries with already poor health care systems and/hard to isolate patients. Flu only has a 0.2% fatality rate so a rate of 2% is 10x that.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/20 ... id-19.html
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/sim ... -covid-19/


The WHO estimates mortality rates worldwide averaging 3.4%.

https://time.com/5798168/coronavirus-mortality-rate/

The US, NZ’s most important long-haul market, has only just recognised they have a problem. There are no safety backstops in the country for people to self-isolate as so many people don’t have health insurance and don’t have access to sick leave entitlements or sickness benefits. People will keep working despite falling ill. The mortality rate in the world’s most powerful and wealthy nation could well exceed the global average.

I can see the US being a no-go zone before long. This would hurt NZ hugely.
come visit the south pacific
 
zkncj
Posts: 3805
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:54 am

VA167 MEL-AKL from May has now been re-timed to depart at 9.30am on weekdays! the latest VA can get ex-MEL to AKL on an weekday is 3pm and that is VA Sydney.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1552
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:36 pm

Motorhussy wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
NZ6 wrote:



While true statistics can be so misleading.

The mortality rate of SARS was 9.6% while the Coronavirus is 2% and the vast majority of that 2% is made up of elderly (70+) who come from countries where air pollution is high and where smoking is still extremely common. For those under 50, the mortality rate is 0.4% and for children under 10 is 0%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/
https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s ... hould-drop.

It is far to early to say what the fatality rate is for Coronavirus, in places where it is well controlled and with good health systems (Singapore) it’s below 1%. In other places it’s already up to 5%. With dwindling supplies of things like masks and sanitizer etc it will be harder to treat especially in countries with already poor health care systems and/hard to isolate patients. Flu only has a 0.2% fatality rate so a rate of 2% is 10x that.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/20 ... id-19.html
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/sim ... -covid-19/


The WHO estimates mortality rates worldwide averaging 3.4%.

https://time.com/5798168/coronavirus-mortality-rate/

The US, NZ’s most important long-haul market, has only just recognised they have a problem. There are no safety backstops in the country for people to self-isolate as so many people don’t have health insurance and don’t have access to sick leave entitlements or sickness benefits. People will keep working despite falling ill. The mortality rate in the world’s most powerful and wealthy nation could well exceed the global average.

I can see the US being a no-go zone before long. This would hurt NZ hugely.


Key word estimates. Go ahead and split hairs over the 1.4% difference in the reported mortality rate but that's really got nothing to do with my point. Besides, we don't have a true number of infected people so you cannot statistically collect this information accurately.

Zkpilot said it's 10 times more lethal than the common flu, I don't dispute this, that's what we've been told. My point if you missed it is, that number is high but the virus isn't as lethal as previous ones we've faced and the vast majority of the population are still able to become infected and actually recover with minimal effects. The mortality rate for healthy people under 50 is very very low.

That's not to say we should do nothing and let the 50+ deal with it. It's about bringing that 10 times more lethal statistic into context.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1552
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:46 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

Zkpilot wrote:
Once it’s spread worldwide and in high enough numbers, it simply becomes like the flu (albeit about 10x more lethal). Beyond containment then... no point trying, people will go back to flying and there will be significant pent up demand.


While true statistics can be so misleading.

The mortality rate of SARS was 9.6% while the Coronavirus is 2% and the vast majority of that 2% is made up of elderly (70+) who come from countries where air pollution is high and where smoking is still extremely common. For those under 50, the mortality rate is 0.4% and for children under 10 is 0%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/
https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s ... hould-drop.

It is far to early to say what the fatality rate is for Coronavirus, in places where it is well controlled and with good health systems (Singapore) it’s below 1%. In other places it’s already up to 5%. With dwindling supplies of things like masks and sanitizer etc it will be harder to treat especially in countries with already poor health care systems and/hard to isolate patients. Flu only has a 0.2% fatality rate so a rate of 2% is 10x that.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/20 ... id-19.html
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/sim ... -covid-19/


I'd say it's partly due to good health systems, but I believe it's also or more importantly to do with the age and health of those nationals.

Look at this, while China's average age is normal, smoking rates are very high and air quality is very low overall.

China average age 37, smoking rate 30% *
Italy average age 45, smoking rate 24%

* China has the largest smoking population in the world, with around 316 million adult smokers, and accounts for nearly one-third (30%) of smokers and 40% of tobacco

Singapore average age 42, smoking rate is 14%.
New Zealand average age 37, smoking rate 12%

I don't believe there is any shortage of soap even if masks, sanitizer supplies are low.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1552
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:01 pm

Motorhussy wrote:
The US, NZ’s most important long-haul market, has only just recognised they have a problem. There are no safety backstops in the country for people to self-isolate as so many people don’t have health insurance and don’t have access to sick leave entitlements or sickness benefits. People will keep working despite falling ill. The mortality rate in the world’s most powerful and wealthy nation could well exceed the global average.

I can see the US being a no-go zone before long. This would hurt NZ hugely.


The whole thing is hurting NZ. Show me an airline that's not hurting?

I don't yet feel America will be too alarmed with NZ given we've had 5 controlled cases. It'll be more interesting to see if Jacinda places any restrictions on America in the short term.

There's been a LOT happen in the last 48-72 hours and the situation changes/moves quickly. The USA just declared a national emergency within the last few hours.

I'm of the opinion, countries are taking extreme short term measures to slow and stop the spread of this virus vs long term ones and within 2 months we should see restrictions being lifted with the exceptions of those being complacent with procedures.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1646
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:48 pm

NZ6 wrote:
I don't yet feel America will be too alarmed with NZ given we've had 5 controlled cases. It'll be more interesting to see if Jacinda places any restrictions on America in the short term.

I'm of the opinion, countries are taking extreme short term measures to slow and stop the spread of this virus vs long term ones and within 2 months we should see restrictions being lifted with the exceptions of those being complacent with procedures.

I think that it's not a question of whether America becomes alarmed by NZ, but NZ becoming alarmed by America. Especially if the virus starts to spread amongst the large section of the population who can't afford the test and have no insurance.

As regards the public strategy, you're 100% correct. The strategy in isolating people is to delay the spread of the virus, not to stop it. Without these measures the virus might indeed run its course in a few months, but medical facilities would be completely overwhelmed and many would die without recourse to proper help - hospitals are already overwhelmed in Italy. So the strategy is to spread the disease out longer in order to be able to provide better care for those who really need it. Unfortunate for airlines and the economy, but seen as the best way to minimise mortality.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
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Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:59 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I don't yet feel America will be too alarmed with NZ given we've had 5 controlled cases. It'll be more interesting to see if Jacinda places any restrictions on America in the short term.

I'm of the opinion, countries are taking extreme short term measures to slow and stop the spread of this virus vs long term ones and within 2 months we should see restrictions being lifted with the exceptions of those being complacent with procedures.

I think that it's not a question of whether America becomes alarmed by NZ, but NZ becoming alarmed by America. Especially if the virus starts to spread amongst the large section of the population who can't afford the test and have no insurance.


That's exactly what said, or at least was trying to say. Apologies if it wasn't clear.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3805
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:15 am

And New Zealand is now an isolated Island.....

As of midnight Sunday every person arriving will have to isolate themselves for 14 days, Ardern says. That will mean New Zealand will have the strongest restrictions in the Pacific Islands.
Source:https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120279430/coronavirus-prime-minister-updates-nz-on-covid19-outbreak


The impact of this is going to be huge.
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 465
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:22 am

zkncj wrote:
And New Zealand is now an isolated Island.....

As of midnight Sunday every person arriving will have to isolate themselves for 14 days, Ardern says. That will mean New Zealand will have the strongest restrictions in the Pacific Islands.
Source:https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120279430/coronavirus-prime-minister-updates-nz-on-covid19-outbreak


The impact of this is going to be huge.


Essentially tourists banned. Time for massive cutbacks to flights.
 
philipng
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:23 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:30 am

And foreign travellers back home, it will take a while before traffic comes to a halt
 
sweens
Posts: 12
Joined: Sat Feb 21, 2009 11:02 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:51 am

Does anyone know where you can confirm if Sunday Midnight is effectively 00:00 Sunday, or 00:00 Monday?
 
zkncj
Posts: 3805
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:57 am

sweens wrote:
Does anyone know where you can confirm if Sunday Midnight is effectively 00:00 Sunday, or 00:00 Monday?


I would take it to be 11:59pm Sunday Night.

mrkerr7474 wrote:
I was due to take a 2 night break in Sydney at the end of April for a status run basically, I am assuming based on this new information release that in doing so I would have to self isolate for 14 days once I return from being away for 2 nights? Effectively meaning I should cancel my trip?


They said it would be reviewed in 16 days, would say how the outbreak pan's out in Australia / USA.

I've got an Bali/Melbourne trip in April for Holiday/Work even though VA is allowing flexibility getting hold of them is an another story.
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:08 am

zkncj wrote:
sweens wrote:
Does anyone know where you can confirm if Sunday Midnight is effectively 00:00 Sunday, or 00:00 Monday?


I would take it to be 11:59pm Sunday Night.

mrkerr7474 wrote:
I was due to take a 2 night break in Sydney at the end of April for a status run basically, I am assuming based on this new information release that in doing so I would have to self isolate for 14 days once I return from being away for 2 nights? Effectively meaning I should cancel my trip?


They said it would be reviewed in 16 days, would say how the outbreak pan's out in Australia / USA.

I've got an Bali/Melbourne trip in April for Holiday/Work even though VA is allowing flexibility getting hold of them is an another story.


Well that makes sense to see how the review goes after 16 days

Hopefully with travel being a few weeks away the restrictions change so both of us can proceed with our trips without having to self isolate on return. I don't even want to try get a hold of QF at the best of times let alone now with how busy they will be. I only have the option of changing my dates as the business sale ticket I bought is non-refundable. Good luck contacting VA!
 
zkncj
Posts: 3805
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:15 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
sweens wrote:
Does anyone know where you can confirm if Sunday Midnight is effectively 00:00 Sunday, or 00:00 Monday?


I would take it to be 11:59pm Sunday Night.

mrkerr7474 wrote:
I was due to take a 2 night break in Sydney at the end of April for a status run basically, I am assuming based on this new information release that in doing so I would have to self isolate for 14 days once I return from being away for 2 nights? Effectively meaning I should cancel my trip?


They said it would be reviewed in 16 days, would say how the outbreak pan's out in Australia / USA.

I've got an Bali/Melbourne trip in April for Holiday/Work even though VA is allowing flexibility getting hold of them is an another story.


Well that makes sense to see how the review goes after 16 days

Hopefully with travel being a few weeks away the restrictions change so both of us can proceed with our trips without having to self isolate on return. I don't even want to try get a hold of QF at the best of times let alone now with how busy they will be. I only have the option of changing my dates as the business sale ticket I bought is non-refundable. Good luck contacting VA!


One thing VA does well is contacting via Social Media, via the phone on the other hand.

Think the best option would be for all the airlines to credit all the Tasman flights for the next two weeks, and get you to re-book if you wish to travel.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3805
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:02 am

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/travel-alerts?eventid=WKehOHc0DpL5nqkTrtFh

NZ's latest change policy is out - allowing full refunds for travel before 31 March 2020, and 12 month credit for flights after 31 March 2020.
 
myki
Posts: 195
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:43 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:42 am

sweens wrote:
Does anyone know where you can confirm if Sunday Midnight is effectively 00:00 Sunday, or 00:00 Monday?

The day starts at midnight 00:00 and ends at 11:59pm/23:59 ... what people are thinking when they write it though is a different story. I have seen flights over the years that effectively are a midnight departure but to avoid this confusion are listed as having a departure of Sunday 2359 or Monday 0001.
 
User avatar
aerorobnz
Posts: 8346
Joined: Sat Feb 10, 2001 3:43 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:42 am

what is the fine/penalty for ignoring the quarantine??
It will have an immediate impact on short /business trips sure, but longer trips after the end of the month?That remains to be seen. If I am out of the country for 3 weeks or longer, it still might be worth it, as many companies have LWOP/pandemic leave. 16 days is the end of the month, if it has been lifted by then then no harm no foul. if it hasn't, then it is time to think of rebooking. At that point I will reevaluate my european trip. (also the point I can cancel without impact my hotels) . If this wasn't a reason for booking rooms/rentals with free cancellation, I don't know what is.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3805
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:47 am

aerorobnz wrote:
what is the fine/penalty for ignoring the quarantine??
It will have an immediate impact on short /business trips sure, but longer trips after the end of the month?That remains to be seen. If I am out of the country for 3 weeks or longer, it still might be worth it, as many companies have LWOP/pandemic leave. 16 days is the end of the month, if it has been lifted by then then no harm no foul. if it hasn't, then it is time to think of rebooking. At that point I will reevaluate my european trip. (also the point I can cancel without impact my hotels) . If this wasn't a reason for booking rooms/rentals with free cancellation, I don't know what is.


https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-novel-coronavirus-health-advice-general-public/covid-19-novel-coronavirus-self-isolation

Interesting read the latest self isolating guide from the MoH - you don't have to stay at home, but recommends avoiding contact with other people.
 
a19901213
Posts: 179
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:38 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:02 am

We’ll probably see Queenstown in its quietest moment ever.
 
User avatar
aerorobnz
Posts: 8346
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:36 am

zkncj wrote:
aerorobnz wrote:
what is the fine/penalty for ignoring the quarantine??
It will have an immediate impact on short /business trips sure, but longer trips after the end of the month?That remains to be seen. If I am out of the country for 3 weeks or longer, it still might be worth it, as many companies have LWOP/pandemic leave. 16 days is the end of the month, if it has been lifted by then then no harm no foul. if it hasn't, then it is time to think of rebooking. At that point I will reevaluate my european trip. (also the point I can cancel without impact my hotels) . If this wasn't a reason for booking rooms/rentals with free cancellation, I don't know what is.


https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-novel-coronavirus-health-advice-general-public/covid-19-novel-coronavirus-self-isolation

Interesting read the latest self isolating guide from the MoH - you don't have to stay at home, but recommends avoiding contact with other people.


appreciate it. Will fwd to nearest and dearest. If this is the case that will limit the travel impact somewhat.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3805
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:46 am

aerorobnz wrote:
zkncj wrote:
aerorobnz wrote:
what is the fine/penalty for ignoring the quarantine??
It will have an immediate impact on short /business trips sure, but longer trips after the end of the month?That remains to be seen. If I am out of the country for 3 weeks or longer, it still might be worth it, as many companies have LWOP/pandemic leave. 16 days is the end of the month, if it has been lifted by then then no harm no foul. if it hasn't, then it is time to think of rebooking. At that point I will reevaluate my european trip. (also the point I can cancel without impact my hotels) . If this wasn't a reason for booking rooms/rentals with free cancellation, I don't know what is.


https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-novel-coronavirus-health-advice-general-public/covid-19-novel-coronavirus-self-isolation

Interesting read the latest self isolating guide from the MoH - you don't have to stay at home, but recommends avoiding contact with other people.


appreciate it. Will fwd to nearest and dearest. If this is the case that will limit the travel impact somewhat.


Untill the next reveiw at the end of the month - which I'm expecting would be closing the boarders for April/May.
 
Motorhussy
Posts: 3669
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:49 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:20 am

NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I don't yet feel America will be too alarmed with NZ given we've had 5 controlled cases. It'll be more interesting to see if Jacinda places any restrictions on America in the short term.

I'm of the opinion, countries are taking extreme short term measures to slow and stop the spread of this virus vs long term ones and within 2 months we should see restrictions being lifted with the exceptions of those being complacent with procedures.

I think that it's not a question of whether America becomes alarmed by NZ, but NZ becoming alarmed by America. Especially if the virus starts to spread amongst the large section of the population who can't afford the test and have no insurance.


That's exactly what said, or at least was trying to say. Apologies if it wasn't clear.



Ummmh no. That was exactly my point, one of them. Please stop making this about point scoring and you.
come visit the south pacific
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