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VirginFlyer
Posts: 5571
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:07 pm

Interesting to note the definition of Pacific Islands in the statement from the Prime Minister (https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/maj ... d-19#_edn1)

The Pacific is defined as the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, New Caledonia, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Republic of Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu & Wallis and Futuna.


A few notable absences:
  • American Samoa (territory of the USA)
  • French Polynesia (territory of France)
  • Guam (territory of the USA)
  • Norfolk Island (territory of Australia)
  • Northern Mariana Islands (territory of the USA)

This does make sense as all are territories of countries to which travel is now restricted. Interesting though that New Caledonia and Wallis and Futuna are on the permissible list despite being territories of France. I wonder what the thinking was behind these?

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
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VirginFlyer
Posts: 5571
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:08 pm

Interesting to note the definition of Pacific Islands in the statement from the Prime Minister (https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/maj ... d-19#_edn1)

The Pacific is defined as the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, New Caledonia, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Republic of Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu & Wallis and Futuna.


A few notable absences:
  • American Samoa (territory of the USA)
  • French Polynesia (territory of France)
  • Guam (territory of the USA)
  • Norfolk Island (territory of Australia)
  • Northern Mariana Islands (territory of the USA)
  • Rapa Nui/Easter Island (territory of Chile)

This does make sense as all are territories of countries to which travel is now restricted. Interesting though that New Caledonia and Wallis and Futuna are on the permissible list despite being territories of France. I wonder what the thinking was behind these?

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
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eta unknown
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:07 pm

Motorhussy wrote:
Please stop making this about point scoring and you.

+1
Unfortunately I find the NZ thread often descends to that level with some posters insisting they have to be right or can't accept criticism re Air NZ.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:17 pm

Air NZ 77E ZK-OKF in CHC for the Y+ reconfiguration did not return to AKL as planned on Friday. I expect some of the International fleet will be stored at CHC, perhaps this is the first.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-okf

PA515
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:24 pm

Unfortunately I could see this situation drag on for months until a vaccine is made killing off all demand. Therefore Air NZ will end up being just a domestic airline with the entire wide body fleet grounded leading to mass job losses. So just a ATR, Q300 and 320 operation. Until a cure is found demand for travel will be gone completely. Play it safe and isolate will be the new norm.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:11 pm

All these temporary restrictions could have an positive, might give AKL an couple of weeks grace to do some runway repairs.
 
anstar
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:25 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Unfortunately I could see this situation drag on for months until a vaccine is made killing off all demand. Therefore Air NZ will end up being just a domestic airline with the entire wide body fleet grounded leading to mass job losses. So just a ATR, Q300 and 320 operation. Until a cure is found demand for travel will be gone completely. Play it safe and isolate will be the new norm.

I'd say more likely the 320's would be grounded too so its just a prop operation. Demand will fall through the floor plus you wont have tourists coming in to fly those domestic sectors.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:39 pm

Motorhussy wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
I think that it's not a question of whether America becomes alarmed by NZ, but NZ becoming alarmed by America. Especially if the virus starts to spread amongst the large section of the population who can't afford the test and have no insurance.

That's exactly what said, or at least was trying to say. Apologies if it wasn't clear.

Ummmh no. That was exactly my point, one of them. Please stop making this about point scoring and you.


Where on earth did that came from?

I didn't even realize that topic related to something you said earlier in the thread. Can I just say, you said this.
I can see the US being a no-go zone before long. This would hurt NZ hugely.

And to be fair, your post doesn't exactly clarify if you mean NZ blocking US or the US block in NZ so I've added my two cents into the conversation saying I don't think America will be too alarmed by NZ and it'll be more interesting to see what Jacinda does. So giving an opinion on which way around I see it happening if it does.

BavidByrne quoted me saying very much the same thing, so I simply clarified and also apologized if I wasn't clear by saying that was essentially my view. this is where you've quoted me and had a go??

Have I missed something? Are you and DavidByrne the same person with two profiles?
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:45 pm

NZ6 wrote:
Have I missed something? Are you and DavidByrne the same person with two profiles?

Nooooo! I was perfectly comfortable with your response and clarification and didn't even see the need for an apology. Absolutely all good from my point of view.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:03 pm

Motorhussy wrote:
Ummmh no. That was exactly my point, one of them. Please stop making this about point scoring and you.


Before attacking me for "point scoring", can I just politely highlight you disrupted the fatality rate of 2% and made it 3.4%... which was incidentally irrelevant to the point. I'd call that point scoring.

But can I ask, if you have a personal issue with me. PM me and I'm happy to talk about it. This is a really interesting and challenging time ahead. It should make for good debate.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:07 pm

Early end to NZ1/2?

With the US now blocking non citizens from the UK in addition to Europe, seems like the days of NZ’s AKL-LAX-LHR service could be even more numbered?
 
jimmyah
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:21 pm

zkncj wrote:
Early end to NZ1/2?

With the US now blocking non citizens from the UK in addition to Europe, seems like the days of NZ’s AKL-LAX-LHR service could be even more numbered?


Lucky they secured a buyer for the LHR slot while demand was still there!
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:37 pm

jimmyah wrote:
Lucky they secured a buyer for the LHR slot while demand was still there!


But has the buyer paid, and what does the contract say. The 'use it or lose it' scenario could come into play.

If necessary Air NZ could utilise the slot until 23 Oct on a transit only basis, either from LAX or another location.

PA515
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:39 pm

PA515 wrote:
jimmyah wrote:
Lucky they secured a buyer for the LHR slot while demand was still there!


But has the buyer paid, and what does the contract say. The 'use it or lose it' scenario could come into play.

If necessary Air NZ could utilise the slot until 23 Oct on a transit only basis, either from LAX or another location.

PA515


An C172 doing an daily LHR-DUB service ;)
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:11 am

zkncj wrote:
Early end to NZ1/2?

With the US now blocking non citizens from the UK in addition to Europe, seems like the days of NZ’s AKL-LAX-LHR service could be even more numbered?


I wouldn't be surprised. Especially given a lot of outbound NS travel is already being cancelled voluntarily.

The NZ border restrictions are in place for 16 days but I highly suspect some level of restrictions will remain in place longer, at a minimum for the US and Europe.

I just wonder if we went down this path, how soon do you pull NZ1/2. It seems logical to almost pull it immediately if you're going to. No point going on for another 3 months is there?
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:33 am

NZ6 wrote:
I just wonder if we went down this path, how soon do you pull NZ1/2. It seems logical to almost pull it immediately if you're going to. No point going on for another 3 months is there?


Maybe two days? Allow people an last chance to return home, and get any LHR crew currently in LAX back home, and get any AKL pilots in LHR back home.
 
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hic787
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:24 am

zkncj wrote:
Early end to NZ1/2?

With the US now blocking non citizens from the UK in addition to Europe, seems like the days of NZ’s AKL-LAX-LHR service could be even more numbered?


The flights may still be viable if they can carry cargo?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:29 am

hic787 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Early end to NZ1/2?

With the US now blocking non citizens from the UK in addition to Europe, seems like the days of NZ’s AKL-LAX-LHR service could be even more numbered?


The flights may still be viable if they can carry cargo?


Very true. But does NZ have enough cargo AKL-LHR or LAX-LHR vv to convince them to keep going if the passenger deck doesn't?

Also whats the situation with crew
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:24 am

NZ6 wrote:
hic787 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Early end to NZ1/2?

With the US now blocking non citizens from the UK in addition to Europe, seems like the days of NZ’s AKL-LAX-LHR service could be even more numbered?


The flights may still be viable if they can carry cargo?


Very true. But does NZ have enough cargo AKL-LHR or LAX-LHR vv to convince them to keep going if the passenger deck doesn't?

Also whats the situation with crew


LHR cabin crew base.

I think overall the whole thing will pass by fairly quickly, but it’s a case of how quickly things recover from what will likely be a recession to follow, I think people will be travelling again fairly quickly but how long till it reaches the recent heights? It will take several months however and I do think LHR will quite likely be pulled early.

I’m not convinced NZ will rush to reduce the overall fleet, But some aircraft maybe put in temporary storage, the 789 RR engines will see reduced usage and perhaps a few 777s stored at Least until we have some idea of how long the market will take to recover somewhat.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:36 am

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120287508/coronavirus-government-has-power-to-quarantine-those-who-dont-selfsolate-pm-says

Self Isolation deadline has been moved to 1am tonight to allow the last of the a Australian arrivals.

To be honest I don’t see how today’s arrivals from Australia, are any safer than tomorrow.

It should of really been effective last night, not 18hrs notice for everyone to race back into the country.
 
Sylus
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:54 am

It's just hit me how unprecedented of an event this is. Within a week Tasman demand will dry up due to these restrictions.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:57 am

Sylus wrote:
It's just hit me how unprecedented of an event this is. Within a week Tasman demand will dry up due to these restrictions.


In some sense its probably one of the biggest travel restriction since the Berlin wall came down? e.g. 9/11 only lasted a couple of days and was confined to certain markets.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:24 am

zkncj wrote:
Sylus wrote:
It's just hit me how unprecedented of an event this is. Within a week Tasman demand will dry up due to these restrictions.


In some sense its probably one of the biggest travel restriction since the Berlin wall came down? e.g. 9/11 only lasted a couple of days and was confined to certain markets.

I think we’re witnessing what will be the largest disruption to civil air travel since the Second World War.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
NYKiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:25 am

Anyone know if UA are codeaharing on the NZ EWR to AKL flight...just tried.to book on UA and doesn't come up.aa an option. Thanks
 
NTLDaz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:47 am

Australia instituting NZ style self isolation from midnight tonight.
 
Sylus
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:51 am

NTLDaz wrote:
Australia instituting NZ style self isolation from midnight tonight.

With this news, I personally believe we will see at least one airline from our region go out of business during these times.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:56 am

NTLDaz wrote:
Australia instituting NZ style self isolation from midnight tonight.


Would expect allot of cancellations on the Tasman from tomorrow then? It would solely reduce traffic to people returning home, no one is going to Australia for an holiday now, it would be an 28 day isolation event.
 
NTLDaz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:28 am

zkncj wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
Australia instituting NZ style self isolation from midnight tonight.


Would expect allot of cancellations on the Tasman from tomorrow then? It would solely reduce traffic to people returning home, no one is going to Australia for an holiday now, it would be an 28 day isolation event.


That's right - 14 days on each end. Business travel gone as well.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:49 am

Australia and New Zealand, effective March 16
Suspending service from Los Angeles (LAX) to Auckland (AKL) effective March 16, which was slated to end seasonal flying on March 28
Suspending service from LAX to Sydney (SYD) effective March 16
Source: http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx


Interesting how allot of these travellers already in New Zealand, will now get home?
 
NTLDaz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:55 am

zkncj wrote:
Australia and New Zealand, effective March 16
Suspending service from Los Angeles (LAX) to Auckland (AKL) effective March 16, which was slated to end seasonal flying on March 28
Suspending service from LAX to Sydney (SYD) effective March 16
Source: http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx


Interesting how allot of these travellers already in New Zealand, will now get home?


Guessing there'll be plenty of empty seats on flights still operating.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:00 am

zkncj wrote:
Australia and New Zealand, effective March 16
Suspending service from Los Angeles (LAX) to Auckland (AKL) effective March 16, which was slated to end seasonal flying on March 28
Suspending service from LAX to Sydney (SYD) effective March 16
Source: http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx


Interesting how allot of these travellers already in New Zealand, will now get home?


Probably plenty of empty seats on NZ and QF if they are in SYD.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:09 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Sylus wrote:
It's just hit me how unprecedented of an event this is. Within a week Tasman demand will dry up due to these restrictions.


In some sense its probably one of the biggest travel restriction since the Berlin wall came down? e.g. 9/11 only lasted a couple of days and was confined to certain markets.

I think we’re witnessing what will be the largest disruption to civil air travel since the Second World War.

V/F


I'd usually call this rhetoric over dramatizing things. But for this? Yeah, I think that's about right. I don't we've ever seen air travel disrupted like this on a global scale before.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:18 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
zkncj wrote:

In some sense its probably one of the biggest travel restriction since the Berlin wall came down? e.g. 9/11 only lasted a couple of days and was confined to certain markets.

I think we’re witnessing what will be the largest disruption to civil air travel since the Second World War.

V/F


I'd usually call this rhetoric over dramatizing things. But for this? Yeah, I think that's about right. I don't we've ever seen air travel disrupted like this on a global scale before.

Indeed - I’m equally against the internet phenomenon of overdramatising present events and not seeing them in context, but the only comparable disruptions I can think of are September 2001 (which was limited to North America and 3 days) and the Eyjafjallajökull disruption in 2010 which affected much of Europe and the North Atlantic, and had impacts over the course of a month. This one looks like it will be more disruptive than either of those events.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
Kiwirob
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:13 am

zkncj wrote:
Sylus wrote:
It's just hit me how unprecedented of an event this is. Within a week Tasman demand will dry up due to these restrictions.


In some sense its probably one of the biggest travel restriction since the Berlin wall came down? e.g. 9/11 only lasted a couple of days and was confined to certain markets.


9/11 is nothing compared to this, I think that its easily the biggest upheaval since WW2.

I’m concerned that if this continues for much longer many of us won’t have jobs.
 
jimmyah
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:21 am

Any thoughts to the routes retained by NZ during this? I’m thinking 3x AKL-LAX, and maybe 5x AKL-SYD/MEL. Since the Pacific islands are less affected maybe 2-3 weekly flights to RAR/NAN?

Would NZ have any obligations to keep up SIN?
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:25 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
zkncj wrote:

In some sense its probably one of the biggest travel restriction since the Berlin wall came down? e.g. 9/11 only lasted a couple of days and was confined to certain markets.

I think we’re witnessing what will be the largest disruption to civil air travel since the Second World War.

V/F


I'd usually call this rhetoric over dramatizing things. But for this? Yeah, I think that's about right. I don't we've ever seen air travel disrupted like this on a global scale before.


Not overdramatising things; but important to keep in context. This isn't happening because ofa global war, or a terrorist ideology. Nor is it some crisis of confidence due to insidious geopolitical forces. It's a nasty flu virus, which will either run its course or be kicked to touch with a vaccine. There will be casualties, both personal and economic, but after a time - and we all hope sooner rather than later - normal service will resume.

I remain cautiously optimistic that a vaccine will be available sooner than advertised. If 30% of the world's population is vaccinated, and there is $20 profit to be made per vaccine administered (likely to be a massive underestimate) that translates into a $60 Billion profit for the drug company that gets there first. They've smelt a buck and are *racing* to get something out.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:01 pm

Gasman wrote:
It's a nasty flu virus, which will either run its course or be kicked to touch with a vaccine.

Just to be clear, it is not an influenza virus, but a coronavirus, of which there are seven species affecting humans:

  • HCoV-229E - a virus responsible for the common cold
  • HCoV-OC43 - a virus responsible for the common cold
  • SARS-CoV - a virus responsible for SARS
  • HCoV-NL63 - a virus responsible for chest infections
  • HCoV-HKU1
  • MERS-CoV - a virus responsible for MERS, which has a fatality rate of around 30% but does not spread easily between people
  • SARS-CoV-2 - a virus responsible for COVID-19

Unlike the influenza viruses, there are not yet vaccines or antiviral treatments for Coronaviruses. This is part of the reason why there is significant concern about COVID-19 (caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2) despite it being less widespread than influenza.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:17 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
Interesting to note the definition of Pacific Islands in the statement from the Prime Minister (https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/maj ... d-19#_edn1)

The Pacific is defined as the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, New Caledonia, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Republic of Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu & Wallis and Futuna.


A few notable absences:
  • American Samoa (territory of the USA)
  • French Polynesia (territory of France)
  • Guam (territory of the USA)
  • Norfolk Island (territory of Australia)
  • Northern Mariana Islands (territory of the USA)
  • Rapa Nui/Easter Island (territory of Chile)

This does make sense as all are territories of countries to which travel is now restricted. Interesting though that New Caledonia and Wallis and Futuna are on the permissible list despite being territories of France. I wonder what the thinking was behind these?

V/F

I’d say because there aren’t flights to most of those and the remaining ones are as you said territories etc. Norfolk is Australian and not really a Pacific Island in the more common sense.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
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qf789
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:26 pm

From 30 Mar to 30 June NZ suspending ORD, IAH, YVR, SFO, NRT, TPE, HNL, DPS, EZE and LAX-LHR

https://twitter.com/camwallace_nz/statu ... 92544?s=21
Forum Moderator
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:28 pm

Gasman wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
I think we’re witnessing what will be the largest disruption to civil air travel since the Second World War.

V/F


I'd usually call this rhetoric over dramatizing things. But for this? Yeah, I think that's about right. I don't we've ever seen air travel disrupted like this on a global scale before.


Not overdramatising things; but important to keep in context. This isn't happening because ofa global war, or a terrorist ideology. Nor is it some crisis of confidence due to insidious geopolitical forces. It's a nasty flu virus, which will either run its course or be kicked to touch with a vaccine. There will be casualties, both personal and economic, but after a time - and we all hope sooner rather than later - normal service will resume.

I remain cautiously optimistic that a vaccine will be available sooner than advertised. If 30% of the world's population is vaccinated, and there is $20 profit to be made per vaccine administered (likely to be a massive underestimate) that translates into a $60 Billion profit for the drug company that gets there first. They've smelt a buck and are *racing* to get something out.


You're vastly overestimating the profit in vaccines, even in an emergency. You're looking at cents at most per vaccine. Most pharma companies got out of vaccines due to the low margins and anti-vaxxers suing them all the time. It got to the point even the US government had to basically insure the vaccine companies as it was costing so much. The companies racing to get something out are not doing it for a quick buck.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:17 pm

qf789 wrote:
From 30 Mar to 30 June NZ suspending ORD, IAH, YVR, SFO, NRT, TPE, HNL, DPS, EZE and LAX-LHR

https://twitter.com/camwallace_nz/statu ... 92544?s=21


Just another resource for this until an official Air NZ media release is made available.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2 ... rcent.html


DavidByrne wrote:
My speculative prediction: coronavirus will spread seriously in the USA, and NZ and other countries will impose significant restrictions on travellers from North America. Air NZ's Pacific services will be drastically cut, and the carrier will need a bailout to survive. When the virus is contained, flights will resume but demand will be seriously reduced long-term. At the same time the flight-shaming phenomenon will catch on locally and NZ, like many other carriers, will find itself reduced a a significantly smaller "rump" long-term. The WB fleet will be reduced to just 22 aircraft (787-9s and 787-10s only) and there will be no 77W replacement required.

Remember: you read it here first!


I'm going to revisit this and say it's certainly much closer to reality now than it was 7 days ago.

I keep asking myself (selfishly) when will this crisis stop for airlines and travel related businesses. I thought on Wednesday last week it was topping out when Trump put in place his travel restrictions but wow!

Like the news hub article above suggests, NZ is in a strong position to work through it as a brand but it WILL effect staff. It will effect routes and it will effect business.

It's becoming abundantly clear very quickly NZ will shortly be a grounded airline with only a scattering of essentially repatriation flights remaining. All future bookings are in question and sales have all but been stopped. You can see on the website they've overridden the normal destination image with a generic airline one and grabaseat is removing any international flights.

Trying to look for a light at the end of the tunnel
  • Could NZ/AU work together and open borders to each and follow an agreed border restriction policy given both have imposed restrictions at the same time ONCE AU starts to report a slowdown in their cases. Thus allowing a flow of trade and business between the two countries.
  • They may have timed this perfectly, the East is recovering and West (USA, Europe) is hopefully nearing the middle of it much like China was in Jan. Fingers crossed we should see the numbers slow in April.
  • There's going to be millions of dollars in travel credit out there which will not be great for the airlines but will help kick start the economy and the industry again.
  • As for the NZ brand, it's an essential link to our business and tourism industries. They've been highly profitable now for a good 15 years reporting record profits and growth. As an investor, board member, employee or anyone else with an interest. I'd be pretty comfortable the government would step in again if required. So it won't end the airline.
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2793
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:07 pm

NZ6 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
From 30 Mar to 30 June NZ suspending ORD, IAH, YVR, SFO, NRT, TPE, HNL, DPS, EZE and LAX-LHR

https://twitter.com/camwallace_nz/statu ... 92544?s=21


Just another resource for this until an official Air NZ media release is made available.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2 ... rcent.html


DavidByrne wrote:
My speculative prediction: coronavirus will spread seriously in the USA, and NZ and other countries will impose significant restrictions on travellers from North America. Air NZ's Pacific services will be drastically cut, and the carrier will need a bailout to survive. When the virus is contained, flights will resume but demand will be seriously reduced long-term. At the same time the flight-shaming phenomenon will catch on locally and NZ, like many other carriers, will find itself reduced a a significantly smaller "rump" long-term. The WB fleet will be reduced to just 22 aircraft (787-9s and 787-10s only) and there will be no 77W replacement required.

Remember: you read it here first!


I'm going to revisit this and say it's certainly much closer to reality now than it was 7 days ago.

I keep asking myself (selfishly) when will this crisis stop for airlines and travel related businesses. I thought on Wednesday last week it was topping out when Trump put in place his travel restrictions but wow!

Like the news hub article above suggests, NZ is in a strong position to work through it as a brand but it WILL effect staff. It will effect routes and it will effect business.

It's becoming abundantly clear very quickly NZ will shortly be a grounded airline with only a scattering of essentially repatriation flights remaining. All future bookings are in question and sales have all but been stopped. You can see on the website they've overridden the normal destination image with a generic airline one and grabaseat is removing any international flights.

Trying to look for a light at the end of the tunnel
  • Could NZ/AU work together and open borders to each and follow an agreed border restriction policy given both have imposed restrictions at the same time ONCE AU starts to report a slowdown in their cases. Thus allowing a flow of trade and business between the two countries.
  • They may have timed this perfectly, the East is recovering and West (USA, Europe) is hopefully nearing the middle of it much like China was in Jan. Fingers crossed we should see the numbers slow in April.
  • There's going to be millions of dollars in travel credit out there which will not be great for the airlines but will help kick start the economy and the industry again.
  • As for the NZ brand, it's an essential link to our business and tourism industries. They've been highly profitable now for a good 15 years reporting record profits and growth. As an investor, board member, employee or anyone else with an interest. I'd be pretty comfortable the government would step in again if required. So it won't end the airline.


I don't think it's being selfish to ask how this impacts airline staff at all, including yourself. This is an incredible situation and we're on an aviation website afterall. If anything, the science and spread of it should be left to other corners o the web.

I have family in the airlines too. There's a tonne of uncertainty and worry out there for them, mostly around mortgage payments. I'd imagine we'll soon be hearing from banks around mortgage holidays etc particularly for people in the most impacted industries. It's in no one's interest for the entire economy to go splat. Well, aside from some bottom feeders.

Does New Zealand have laws that allow furloughs like they do in the US? I wonder if airline staff - naturally customer focused - might be repurposed to call centres and supporting field hospitals. Following the earthquakes in Canterbury EQC had to grow from 20 to about 1400 staff in a couple of weeks and it was a huge effort with all sorts of challenges and mistakes Hopefully lessons have been learned.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3915
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:30 pm

Could the long dreamed of NZ/QF merger be back on the cards again, surely the two governments would be very open to an option that means they don't have to fork out money to save either of the two airlines.
 
axio
Posts: 271
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 10:44 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:34 pm

So what's left of the NZ long-haul network? Just AKL-LAX and AKL-SIN (HKG and PVG were already gone?)?
Time for a new viewing deck at AKL!
 
NZ6
Posts: 1616
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:40 pm

aerokiwi wrote:
I don't think it's being selfish to ask how this impacts airline staff at all, including yourself. This is an incredible situation and we're on an aviation website afterall. If anything, the science and spread of it should be left to other corners o the web.

I have family in the airlines too. There's a tonne of uncertainty and worry out there for them, mostly around mortgage payments. I'd imagine we'll soon be hearing from banks around mortgage holidays etc particularly for people in the most impacted industries. It's in no one's interest for the entire economy to go splat. Well, aside from some bottom feeders.

Does New Zealand have laws that allow furloughs like they do in the US? I wonder if airline staff - naturally customer focused - might be repurposed to call centres and supporting field hospitals. Following the earthquakes in Canterbury EQC had to grow from 20 to about 1400 staff in a couple of weeks and it was a huge effort with all sorts of challenges and mistakes Hopefully lessons have been learned.


Just a couple of points of interest here. I love my bullet points otherwise I ramble.

  • Self isolation leave, is it sick, annual or special leave? I've spoken to a few people in various organisations and am hearing a few different policies. I'm not an HR person but I don't think it's actually covered anywhere (collective agreements / employment law etc). I'm not sick and and I'm not on holiday. I'm fit an healthy and want to come to work but I'm not allowed and I can't work from home. Could be interesting to see what happens here in due course.
  • Mortgage leave; I really hope so, even if it's interest only payments. Thankfully it won't effect me but we have an issue with housing as it is and the vast majority of home owners have one, in Auckland a HUGE one.
  • I think employees of larger organisations should worry the least, cafe owners, motel operators, small inbound tour operators, smaller attractions will be loosing sleep.
  • As for furlough leave, I'm not familiar with it but is that when a company can force unpaid leave? If so I don't think we have anything of the sort.
  • I did hear from a crew manger that some had or were going to be trained in customer service areas of the business fielding questions to help ease the load. I assume that'll be in the call center.
  • I'm interested to see what Jacinda does tomorrow.
 
Gasman
Posts: 2203
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:53 pm

NZ6 wrote:
I'd be pretty comfortable the government would step in again if required. So it won't end the airline.


I'd take it one step further and say the odds of a major bailout are close to 100%. NZ is a key piece of infrastructure, and the New Zealand government is still a 51% shareholder.
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2793
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:07 pm

I hadn't actually thought about the airline's helpline. Was thinking more about the government virus hotline, Healthline, that is already severely understaffed and stretched.

Yeah my understanding of furlough is forced unpaid leave, but rehiring as soon as whatever crisis has passed.

NZ-QF merger? Won't help anyone in the short term. It's hunker down and ride itn out territory now. But yes I'd say NZ is pretty secure with its majority shareholder being the government.
 
User avatar
SCFlyer
Posts: 633
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:25 pm

Neither government will allow a NZ/QF merger out of competition concerns, despite the ongoing health concerns.
There's a good chance the AU government may assist both QF and VA, but that is far as it'll go without the government (re)acquiring a stake in QF again.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1616
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:48 am

zkncj wrote:
Could the long dreamed of NZ/QF merger be back on the cards again, surely the two governments would be very open to an option that means they don't have to fork out money to save either of the two airlines.

Who can rule anything out right now. I'd be pessimistic about it though. We're significantly smaller than Australia. Would New Zealand see the benefits it deserves out of the deal. Assuming this is a merged airline with cash injection from respective governments?

QF will be hurting as much as NZ and may require significant help themselves.

Gasman wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I'd be pretty comfortable the government would step in again if required. So it won't end the airline.

I'd take it one step further and say the odds of a major bailout are close to 100%. NZ is a key piece of infrastructure, and the New Zealand government is still a 51% shareholder.

It all depends how long it goes for. I'd say the 16 day restrictions will be extended. Maybe some respite for Tasman flying at this point but that's all.

It's such a fluid situation. I can't recall if it was SARS, H1N1 or another gloabl event. There was some wild "fun fact" type message for reassurance around how long the airline could exist for if it was grounded. It was surprisingly very long, I could well be wrong but I think it was 12 months.

Can't stand back and say it's still the case or what other circumstances there were as it's just a vague memory right now.

There was some concern obviously given that Ansett back then was still very fresh.

aerokiwi wrote:
I hadn't actually thought about the airline's helpline. Was thinking more about the government virus hotline, Healthline, that is already severely understaffed and stretched.

Yeah my understanding of furlough is forced unpaid leave, but rehiring as soon as whatever crisis has passed.

NZ-QF merger? Won't help anyone in the short term. It's hunker down and ride itn out territory now. But yes I'd say NZ is pretty secure with its majority shareholder being the government.


Oh right, well from what I've been told the NZ customer service teams are unable to keep up with demand. To the point where you can't even connect to the 0800 team as there's no available waiting lines. Didn't even know call centers had this problem. I believe other unused NZ staff are being brought in to help where they can but to change bookings etc it requires pretty complex and lengthy system training.

Yeah, I've never heard of that here.

It'll be interesting to see what the PM announces tomorrow in this package.

Agree with merger. Way too soon to consider anything seriously. We could have open borders again in 30 days. We just don't know.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1616
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:00 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Neither government will allow a NZ/QF merger out of competition concerns, despite the ongoing health concerns.
There's a good chance the AU government may assist both QF and VA, but that is far as it'll go without the government (re)acquiring a stake in QF again.


Agreed. I took the suggestion as being around if they airlines were essentially out of money.

In short all cards on the table with a proposal to merge as one with bailout funding from each side of the Tasman.
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