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qf789
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:47 am

Hawaiian to temporarily suspend services to AKL

https://twitter.com/krisvancleave/statu ... 98658?s=21
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DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:56 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Neither government will allow a NZ/QF merger out of competition concerns, despite the ongoing health concerns.

Agree. Also, it would be a huge political step for any NZ government to abandon the 80-year history of its national carrier, especially when it owns 52% on behalf of you and I. And certainly not in an election year. The Air NZ identity is critical also to the nation’s image abroad as a tourism destination. I would expect Australia and Australians would feel the same about the loss of the Qantas identity. Not going to happen!
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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:57 am

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12317117

I don't believe this number is true for a second.

I don't think Pilots have too much to be concerned about either, there's a global shortage of them and NZ will want to keep what they have unless they're predicting a huge offload in their fleet and I highly doubt that much thought has gone into it over 2 days.

I don't dispute here will be some cuts, I wonder how much relief NZ is seeking from the government.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:08 am

NZ6 wrote:
I don't think Pilots have too much to be concerned about either, there's a global shortage of them.

Correction: there WAS a global pilot shortage. I ’d say all bets are completely off as to the shape and size of the global airline industry in the future.

I worry also that Boeing and Airbus will face serious financial futures (Boeing is already in difficulty) and that new aircraft projects will as a consequence be set back many years as they struggle to stabilise themselves. I'll be surprised if the 777-8/9 gets into airline service. QF's Project Sunrise must also be in serious doubt.

I'd like to think that NZ''S AKL-ORD and AKL-EWR will continue, even if EWR is delayed, and that NZ has an opportunity to further develop its AKL hub to the Americas without the imminent threat of QF competition.
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myki
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:30 am

qf789 wrote:
Hawaiian to temporarily suspend services to AKL

https://twitter.com/krisvancleave/statu ... 98658?s=21

Which other non-AU/NZ airlines have made any changes in the last few days? LA still holding up on SCL-AKL?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:38 am

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I don't think Pilots have too much to be concerned about either, there's a global shortage of them.

Correction: there WAS a global pilot shortage. I ’d say all bets are completely off as to the shape and size of the global airline industry in the future.

I worry also that Boeing and Airbus will face serious financial futures (Boeing is already in difficulty) and that new aircraft projects will as a consequence be set back many years as they struggle to stabilise themselves. I'll be surprised if the 777-8/9 gets into airline service. QF's Project Sunrise must also be in serious doubt.

I'd like to think that NZ''S AKL-ORD and AKL-EWR will continue, even if EWR is delayed, and that NZ has an opportunity to further develop its AKL hub to the Americas without the imminent threat of QF competition.


A big part me just wants to say.. slow down and breath.

We still have the same number qualified pilots, the same number of operational aircraft in the world, the same population and so forth... just because there's restrictions on flights in the immediate future (2 months max) that doesn't mean we've solved the medium to long term pilot shortage. We'll have that back in 1-2 years. We've just hidden it.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:01 am

myki wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Hawaiian to temporarily suspend services to AKL

https://twitter.com/krisvancleave/statu ... 98658?s=21

Which other non-AU/NZ airlines have made any changes in the last few days? LA still holding up on SCL-AKL?

LA did announced a 30% reduction for all it’s subs last week. With Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Argentina closing borders I am sure cuts will get deeper. Most probably Chile is following suit soon.


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DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:54 am

NZ6 wrote:
A big part me just wants to say.. slow down and breath.

We still have the same number qualified pilots, the same number of operational aircraft in the world, the same population and so forth... just because there's restrictions on flights in the immediate future (2 months max) that doesn't mean we've solved the medium to long term pilot shortage. We'll have that back in 1-2 years. We've just hidden it.

I sincerely hope you're right, but the unknown factor is the extent to which the economic implications of the virus will impact directly on people's ability to travel. Consider, for example, the number of people who have lost or who will lose their jobs across the world, or whose incomes (dependent on superannuation and therefore on dividends) will be seriously reduced. Then there's the psychological impact - I suspect many people will reassess whether discretionary travel is more important than having money in the bank against a rainy day. Quite apart from the perception that certain places will be "no go" areas for years to come.

We're not talking about economic rationality or people making rational decisions about their priorities. People won't necessarily act rationally even if the crisis is over in a year or two (which is now being talked about as a time frame). That's why I'm very pessimistic about the future of the airline industry - many, many airlines will go to the wall before this is over, of that I'm sure. And those that remain will struggle to regain their former size and financial strength.

I sincerely hope that I'm wrong, but I think we're putting our heads in the sand if we think this will be over soon and it will be all back to normal.
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NTLDaz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:20 am

NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I don't think Pilots have too much to be concerned about either, there's a global shortage of them.

Correction: there WAS a global pilot shortage. I ’d say all bets are completely off as to the shape and size of the global airline industry in the future.

I worry also that Boeing and Airbus will face serious financial futures (Boeing is already in difficulty) and that new aircraft projects will as a consequence be set back many years as they struggle to stabilise themselves. I'll be surprised if the 777-8/9 gets into airline service. QF's Project Sunrise must also be in serious doubt.

I'd like to think that NZ''S AKL-ORD and AKL-EWR will continue, even if EWR is delayed, and that NZ has an opportunity to further develop its AKL hub to the Americas without the imminent threat of QF competition.


A big part me just wants to say.. slow down and breath.

We still have the same number qualified pilots, the same number of operational aircraft in the world, the same population and so forth... just because there's restrictions on flights in the immediate future (2 months max) that doesn't mean we've solved the medium to long term pilot shortage. We'll have that back in 1-2 years. We've just hidden it.


2 months max. I also sincerely hope you're right but can't see it right now. Australian PM has said to be prepared for at least 6 months disruption. We've got to get through winter which will be the worst time. This could potentially cause the most economic carnage since the depression.
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:22 am

DavidByrne wrote:
We're not talking about economic rationality or people making rational decisions about their priorities. People won't necessarily act rationally even if the crisis is over in a year or two (which is now being talked about as a time frame). That's why I'm very pessimistic about the future of the airline industry - many, many airlines will go to the wall before this is over, of that I'm sure. And those that remain will struggle to regain their former size and financial strength.

I sincerely hope that I'm wrong, but I think we're putting our heads in the sand if we think this will be over soon and it will be all back to normal.


I think the "this will all be over soon" possibility disappeared in a puff of smoke a couple of weeks ago when the virus went nuclear in Italy and gained a very strong foothold in the USA. However, it's still possible to imagine a scenario where Boris's herd immunity theory works, where the elderly are encouraged to lie low for a while until a vaccine comes on line. So no, this won't all be wrapped up in a few weeks; but a whole lot more positivity in a few months is not out of the question. Two years of abject misery is far from a fait accompli and so called experts that proclaim otherwise are, I think, being disingenuous.

And as time goes on, we will have more and more certainty about the virus, how it spreads, how many people truly have an asymptomatic illness and what containment and treatment options actually work. With that will come an element of certainty and predictability about how the future will play out and that in itself will provide an element of confidence. Much of the anxiety at the moment stems from the fact we just don't know what we're facing.

My predictions for NZ:

- some jobs will go. Regrettably, the brunt will be borne by the lowest paid staff.
- cabin crew and pilots might be asked to take voluntary retirement (or even a temporary pay cut) but large scale lay offs of either group would be unlikely. Pilots in particular are too precious a resource and the cost of retaining them somewhat underutilised will be less than trying to completely replete the pool at short notice when the recovery comes.
- EWR will be officially "postponed" but effectively completely shelved. The routemap as a whole might look a bit threadbare; but I think for a while they'll consolidate some legacy routes (like AKL-LAX) to make up a bit of the shortfall while confidence in the market recovers.
- The government will pay whatever it takes to keep NZ solvent and viable. There simply is no other option.
 
aerokiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:45 am

I agree with the take-a-breath sentiment.

This is, so far, peak panic mode but governments everywhere are consolidating around plans and contingencies. The public feels pretty helpless right now but as restrictions become daily life we adjust and expectations change. I also agree that the onset of winter is going to be a big challenge.

Meaning? If the virus does establish itself here we might get a second wave of infection over the winter and NZ and Australia find themselves cut off from the world just as we'll be seeing signs of recovery in destination markets like the US, Asia and Europe. Air NZ will be propped up with significant FTE reduction, albeit temporary. QF will face similar. VA will struggle most and their workforce will be most at risk. But I suspect you'll see government offer lines of credit to the carriers that need them - not cash bailouts, but guaranteed loans.

I worry about the Pacific Islands though. Older populations, high rates of obesity and diabetes, limited healthcare. I'd have thought you'd quarantine flights there asap. I figured that's why VA pulled flights so quickly. Wonder what Air NZ is thinking.
Last edited by aerokiwi on Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:54 am

The "herd" is fine as a theory but there are a few people who have reportedly caught it twice... so quite where that leaves us we don't know at this time. Quite a gamble perhaps?
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:27 pm

ANZ London service to end Saturday 21st March. Date brought forward from October thanks to you know what.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:14 pm

CarbonFibre wrote:
ANZ London service to end Saturday 21st March. Date brought forward from October thanks to you know what.

No, that is not what Air New Zealand have to say about it:

We are also suspending our services between London and Los Angeles from 20 March (from Los Angeles) and 21 March (from London Heathrow) through to 30 June.


Of course if the travel restrictions remain in play longer then it may end up being over for London, but that isn’t the case just yet.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:04 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
CarbonFibre wrote:
ANZ London service to end Saturday 21st March. Date brought forward from October thanks to you know what.

No, that is not what Air New Zealand have to say about it:

We are also suspending our services between London and Los Angeles from 20 March (from Los Angeles) and 21 March (from London Heathrow) through to 30 June.


Of course if the travel restrictions remain in play longer then it may end up being over for London, but that isn’t the case just yet.

V/F


Very much correct but on a separate note do we really expect the airline to recommence the route after June until October.

  • There's two factors now A) COVID-19 and the health/risk side of things and B) Economic impact of A let's call it a "recession"
  • June is an interim line in the sand so the airline can work out what the hell to do. It could be brought forward or extended.
  • In the meantime the desire/need for travel to Europe this yer is disappearing from under us rapidly.
  • Once restrictions are lifted, the airline will be in bad shape. It won't be in a position to carry routes that can't sustain themselves especially for 4 months with light loads.

My early logical prediction is this will be the end of LAX-LHR-LAX. Even though it's not officially done yet.

The only saving grace could be some reassurance in early April that flights will recommence from X date after a rapid slowdown in spread and reported cases.Then it'll be down to the economic damage and how many still travel.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:11 pm

aerokiwi wrote:
I agree with the take-a-breath sentiment.

This is, so far, peak panic mode but governments everywhere are consolidating around plans and contingencies. The public feels pretty helpless right now but as restrictions become daily life we adjust and expectations change. I also agree that the onset of winter is going to be a big challenge.

Meaning? If the virus does establish itself here we might get a second wave of infection over the winter and NZ and Australia find themselves cut off from the world just as we'll be seeing signs of recovery in destination markets like the US, Asia and Europe. Air NZ will be propped up with significant FTE reduction, albeit temporary. QF will face similar. VA will struggle most and their workforce will be most at risk. But I suspect you'll see government offer lines of credit to the carriers that need them - not cash bailouts, but guaranteed loans.
[*]
I worry about the Pacific Islands though. Older populations, high rates of obesity and diabetes, limited healthcare. I'd have thought you'd quarantine flights there asap. I figured that's why VA pulled flights so quickly. Wonder what Air NZ is thinking.


I'm personally trying to distance myself from the 'panic' and 'scale' of what's happening and trying to look ahead rationally at what's going to happen. The simple fact is; we've never seen this scale is disruption in the world before. Well not since WW 2 and back then trade, tourism, technology was vastly different so is incomparable anyway.

My predictions..

We won't remain in isolation with widespread border restrictions in place indefinitely or even until the end of the year. My prediction is around Easter. Obviously the school holidays tie into that period so perhaps after.

Why? With widespread border restrictions globally, the warming of the Northern hemisphere, better testing and treatment and so forth all help guide me to this early prediction. Also border restrictions were about breaking the pandemic curve. Not solely to prevent it from coming here.

From this point normal flying will resume however it'll be H1N1, SARS and 9/11 collectively with regards to the impact on the travel demand.

As a result, NZ will offload OKT (planned anyway), Some A320CEO's will exit the fleet early and I imagine there'll be a changes to the 772/78X replacement project.

This will eat into NZ's pretty deep pockets (in airline terms) quickly but it wont see them collapsing.

Before I go on too much the two deciding questions are
1. How long will the world lock itself down for
2. What will world leaders do to kick start their own and world economies again,

There will be airlines that go belly up. I have no doubt. QF/NZ will both be fine.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:49 pm

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... nt-pay-cut

Auckland International Airport has cancelled its interim dividend and its chief executive is taking a $260,000 pay cut for the rest of the financial year, following recent developments in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

This year's interim dividend of 11 cents per share on April 3 would not be paid to shareholders.

Directors' fees will be reduced by 20 per cent and chief executive Adrian Littlewood volunteered to cut his salary by 20 per cent for the remainder of the 2020 financial year, which ends on June 30.

... Rest of article in link
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:04 pm

Gasman wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
We're not talking about economic rationality or people making rational decisions about their priorities. People won't necessarily act rationally even if the crisis is over in a year or two (which is now being talked about as a time frame). That's why I'm very pessimistic about the future of the airline industry - many, many airlines will go to the wall before this is over, of that I'm sure. And those that remain will struggle to regain their former size and financial strength.

I sincerely hope that I'm wrong, but I think we're putting our heads in the sand if we think this will be over soon and it will be all back to normal.


I think the "this will all be over soon" possibility disappeared in a puff of smoke a couple of weeks ago when the virus went nuclear in Italy and gained a very strong foothold in the USA. However, it's still possible to imagine a scenario where Boris's herd immunity theory works, where the elderly are encouraged to lie low for a while until a vaccine comes on line. So no, this won't all be wrapped up in a few weeks; but a whole lot more positivity in a few months is not out of the question. Two years of abject misery is far from a fait accompli and so called experts that proclaim otherwise are, I think, being disingenuous.

And as time goes on, we will have more and more certainty about the virus, how it spreads, how many people truly have an asymptomatic illness and what containment and treatment options actually work. With that will come an element of certainty and predictability about how the future will play out and that in itself will provide an element of confidence. Much of the anxiety at the moment stems from the fact we just don't know what we're facing.

My predictions for NZ:

- some jobs will go. Regrettably, the brunt will be borne by the lowest paid staff.
- cabin crew and pilots might be asked to take voluntary retirement (or even a temporary pay cut) but large scale lay offs of either group would be unlikely. Pilots in particular are too precious a resource and the cost of retaining them somewhat underutilised will be less than trying to completely replete the pool at short notice when the recovery comes.
- EWR will be officially "postponed" but effectively completely shelved. The routemap as a whole might look a bit threadbare; but I think for a while they'll consolidate some legacy routes (like AKL-LAX) to make up a bit of the shortfall while confidence in the market recovers.
- The government will pay whatever it takes to keep NZ solvent and viable. There simply is no other option.

So many unknowns yet, and I agree that there's no consensus as to how long this will all last. One of the biggest unknowns is whether the immunity gained from infection will be long-term, or as little as three months like that of one of the "other" coronaviruses, the common cold. I don't believe the airline industry will really start to recover until there's a viable mass-produced vaccine though yes, some good news in the medium term may improve their lot just a little.

Two years of abject misery is of course not a foregone conclusion but the longer this goes on, the more society will adapt to the "new normal" and the harder it will be to return to the status quo ante. Habits will change, investment patterns will change, trade patterns will change, people will get used to holidaying domestically. We've already been moving as a global society toward a more nationalistic way of life, more self-focus and "fear of the other". These are tectonic shifts which coronavirus can only exacerbate. This all is completely against my personal instincts of liberalism and multinationalism but this is nevertheless the trend, and it ain't good for airlines.

I fear that in rebuilding NZ we may be looking in future at a network that looks more like the NZ of the 1970s (though with fewer en route stops) for a considerable period. I'm still convinced that early 2020 may turn out to be "peak flying".
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:21 pm

At least there is some good news coming out:

It's alive: Air New Zealand's black Dreamliner returns to service a year after being hit by catering truck


Air New Zealand's distinctive black Dreamliner has returned to service after being grounded for a year following a series of mishaps, including being hit by a catering truck.

The aircraft, registered as ZK-NZE and known for its jet black livery, was not only the first Dreamliner to join Air New Zealand's fleet back in June 2014, it was the first Dreamliner 787-9 in the world to enter commercial service.

Today Air New Zealand has 14 Dreamliners, but the fleet has been constrained since 2017 due to problems with Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines fitted to the aircraft.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indust ... ring-truck
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:09 pm

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... 0-per-cent

Air New Zealand is reducing trans-Tasman capacity by 80 per cent and suspending 13 Australian routes as travel restrictions resulting from coronavirus hit the airline hard.

The changes will take effect from March 30 to June 30 but those dates could change, the airline said.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:11 pm

This is so awful:

Coronavirus: Air New Zealand suspends 13 Australian routes, cuts trans-Tasman capacity by 80 per cent

Air New Zealand is reducing trans-Tasman capacity by 80 per cent and suspending 13 Australian routes as travel restrictions resulting from coronavirus hit the airline hard.

The changes will take effect from March 30 to June 30 but those dates could change, the airline said.

As of Monday 1am the Government required all travellers arriving in New Zealand to self isolate for 14 days, in an effort to stop the spread of coronavirus.


https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... 0-per-cent
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:42 pm

NZ516 wrote:
This is so awful:

Coronavirus: Air New Zealand suspends 13 Australian routes, cuts trans-Tasman capacity by 80 per cent


Awful, but utterly predictable and, actually sensible. QF have cut international capacity by 90%.

We'll get through this. It will take a while perhaps to regain early 2020 glory; but this very dark period is going to turn out to be a blip.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:58 pm

If my calculations are correct, NZ has 19 Australian routes, so if 13 are dropped, that probably leaves just AKL-SYD, MEL, BNE, and PER, WLG-SYD and CHC-SYD. Probably that's 2WBs and 2 NBs, plus 2 WBs for LAX, one for SIN, and a NB for the Pacific Islands. So an international fleet requirement for the moment of say 6 787s and 3 A320s perhaps?
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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:00 am

The Tasman cuts are a good thing. Obviously It costs significantly to get an aircraft airborne and given travel between the two countries has basically stopped there's no point in flying.

Unless you want to travel over spend 2 weeks in isolation there's just no point. The Phoenix football team did today, but they're spending 2 weeks in a hotel before playing the rest of their season. Outside of exceptions like this it's just people returning home and that'll will quickly dry up as the week(s) progresses.

I see the Airlines of America association are asking congress for $58B and Trump has said he'll be backing the airlines.

Fingers crossed we see the same type of support down here. Irrespective it'll take several years to get back to where we were before and some are suggesting NZ won't be the same already.
https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... 178e687de7
 
mrkerr7474
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:02 am

Gasman wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
This is so awful:

Coronavirus: Air New Zealand suspends 13 Australian routes, cuts trans-Tasman capacity by 80 per cent


Awful, but utterly predictable and, actually sensible. QF have cut international capacity by 90%.

We'll get through this. It will take a while perhaps to regain early 2020 glory; but this very dark period is going to turn out to be a blip.


Does anyone know where to find QF full cuts across the tasman and for which dates or have these not been fully released yet?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:11 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
Gasman wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
This is so awful:

Coronavirus: Air New Zealand suspends 13 Australian routes, cuts trans-Tasman capacity by 80 per cent


Awful, but utterly predictable and, actually sensible. QF have cut international capacity by 90%.

We'll get through this. It will take a while perhaps to regain early 2020 glory; but this very dark period is going to turn out to be a blip.


Does anyone know where to find QF full cuts across the tasman and for which dates or have these not been fully released yet?


Not yet confirmed.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... esponse-2/
The route-by-route detail of these changes across Qantas and Jetstar is currently being worked through and will be announced in coming days.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:15 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
Gasman wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
This is so awful:

Coronavirus: Air New Zealand suspends 13 Australian routes, cuts trans-Tasman capacity by 80 per cent


Awful, but utterly predictable and, actually sensible. QF have cut international capacity by 90%.

We'll get through this. It will take a while perhaps to regain early 2020 glory; but this very dark period is going to turn out to be a blip.


Does anyone know where to find QF full cuts across the tasman and for which dates or have these not been fully released yet?


Virgin hasn't confirmed yet, thinking they will exit the Tasman completely.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:19 am

NZ6 wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
Gasman wrote:

Awful, but utterly predictable and, actually sensible. QF have cut international capacity by 90%.

We'll get through this. It will take a while perhaps to regain early 2020 glory; but this very dark period is going to turn out to be a blip.


Does anyone know where to find QF full cuts across the tasman and for which dates or have these not been fully released yet?


Not yet confirmed.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... esponse-2/
The route-by-route detail of these changes across Qantas and Jetstar is currently being worked through and will be announced in coming days.


I would expect it to be much the same as NZ announced today. Minimal QF on WLG/CHC-SYD and AKL-BNE/MEL/SYD and getting rid of everything else. Possible full JQ suspension on the Tasman. Interesting to see what EK does on CHC-SYD.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:32 am

a7ala wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:

Does anyone know where to find QF full cuts across the tasman and for which dates or have these not been fully released yet?


Not yet confirmed.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... esponse-2/
The route-by-route detail of these changes across Qantas and Jetstar is currently being worked through and will be announced in coming days.


I would expect it to be much the same as NZ announced today. Minimal QF on WLG/CHC-SYD and AKL-BNE/MEL/SYD and getting rid of everything else. Possible full JQ suspension on the Tasman. Interesting to see what EK does on CHC-SYD.


Agreed.

They may even focus on AKL-SYD only. Feed into SYD and out of AKL on JQ
 
mrkerr7474
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:51 am

NZ6 wrote:
a7ala wrote:
NZ6 wrote:


I would expect it to be much the same as NZ announced today. Minimal QF on WLG/CHC-SYD and AKL-BNE/MEL/SYD and getting rid of everything else. Possible full JQ suspension on the Tasman. Interesting to see what EK does on CHC-SYD.


Agreed.

They may even focus on AKL-SYD only. Feed into SYD and out of AKL on JQ


Would be interesting to see if they end up doing that because as of now / previously, you cannot book a WLG-SYD via AKL on the one ticket as in QFs words to me "we fly direct so why would you want to go via AKL"
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:06 am

No mention of Air NZ's SYD-NLK (Mo & Fr) and BNE-NLK (Tu & Sa). Most likely will be SYD-NLK one flight a week.

PA515
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:20 am

PA515 wrote:
No mention of Air NZ's SYD-NLK (Mo & Fr) and BNE-NLK (Tu & Sa). Most likely will be SYD-NLK one flight a week.

PA515


Australian Government funded service - thinking NZ will just park an A320 in BNE/SYD to operate it, its an vitail lifeline to them.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:28 am

DavidByrne wrote:
If my calculations are correct, NZ has 19 Australian routes, so if 13 are dropped, that probably leaves just AKL-SYD, MEL, BNE, and PER, WLG-SYD and CHC-SYD. Probably that's 2WBs and 2 NBs, plus 2 WBs for LAX, one for SIN, and a NB for the Pacific Islands. So an international fleet requirement for the moment of say 6 787s and 3 A320s perhaps?

Transtasman cuts even more significant than I'd imagined - surprised at the low frequency on WLG/CHC-SYD. As for EK on CHC-SYD-DXB: I could see that being dropped altogether for the moment.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:03 am

Just been watching the TV for the support packages that are coming. Airlines will be a special case and announcements on support for them are due later this week.Tourism commentators are suggesting that we will have to rebuild the industry pretty much from scratch. Doesn't sound like this will just be the "blip" that some have suggested.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
timpdx
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:44 am

Thanks to their ungenerous change policies, NZ just screwed me out of my complete air fare. Since I booked LAX LHR in early December for May travel, they are only allowing credit up to that date of booking. I only have 2 travel windows to use my fare credit, May and Christmas. They need to change the fare credit to the date of suspension of the flights. Covid is not on NZ, but their stated change policy is, thanks for taking my $$.
Flown 2018: LAX, ARN, DXB, ALA, TAS, UCG, ASB, MYP, GYD, TBS, KUT, BER, TLS, SVO, CCF, DUB, LGW, MEX, BUR, PDX, ORD, SLC, SNA
Upcoming 2018: STL, MIA, BZE, IAH, BHM, LHR, DFW, PHX
 
Sylus
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:05 am

timpdx wrote:
Thanks to their ungenerous change policies, NZ just screwed me out of my complete air fare. Since I booked LAX LHR in early December for May travel, they are only allowing credit up to that date of booking. I only have 2 travel windows to use my fare credit, May and Christmas. They need to change the fare credit to the date of suspension of the flights. Covid is not on NZ, but their stated change policy is, thanks for taking my $$.


Come on mate. It's a tough situation for everyone
 
fkfnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:07 am

zkncj wrote:
Virgin hasn't confirmed yet, thinking they will exit the Tasman completely.


That would solve my personal problem of rescheduling my upcoming Virgin flights, because hopefully at that point they'll just have to refund.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:16 am

PA515 wrote:
No mention of Air NZ's SYD-NLK (Mo & Fr) and BNE-NLK (Tu & Sa). Most likely will be SYD-NLK one flight a week.

PA515

Meanwhile Air Chathams are suspending Norfolk from next Friday: https://www.airchathams.co.nz/travel-info/coronavirus

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:36 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
a7ala wrote:

I would expect it to be much the same as NZ announced today. Minimal QF on WLG/CHC-SYD and AKL-BNE/MEL/SYD and getting rid of everything else. Possible full JQ suspension on the Tasman. Interesting to see what EK does on CHC-SYD.


Agreed.

They may even focus on AKL-SYD only. Feed into SYD and out of AKL on JQ


Would be interesting to see if they end up doing that because as of now / previously, you cannot book a WLG-SYD via AKL on the one ticket as in QFs words to me "we fly direct so why would you want to go via AKL"


Who knows, it would just be a way of putting all their eggs into one basket vs flying multiple routes relatively empty. After all, it's basically only those returning home who were already away on work/holiday in the skies at the moment.

You can't do that now based on their own imposed restrictions. I think we threw most strategic fare rules out the window on Saturday afternoon.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:01 am

timpdx wrote:
Thanks to their ungenerous change policies, NZ just screwed me out of my complete air fare. Since I booked LAX LHR in early December for May travel, they are only allowing credit up to that date of booking. I only have 2 travel windows to use my fare credit, May and Christmas. They need to change the fare credit to the date of suspension of the flights. Covid is not on NZ, but their stated change policy is, thanks for taking my $$.


Good to see you ignored the plea from the airline not to contact them unless travel is within 48 hours. They've now made the banner maroon in an attempt to make it stand out. People who travelling today aren't even able to get service or advise because of people like you.

But I'll help you a touch anyway. If you've not commenced your travel you can still extend the validity. It's all too often not understood or not known.

The IATA ticketing handbook costs $150+USD so I've googled an old copy here
https://www.travelready.org/PDF%20Files ... ndbook.pdf

Have a read over 12.9.1 on pg 288.

Before ringing them back, please be considerate for other passengers. call later, your travel is in May. Yes it's effected but let those travelling today tomorrow or even this week sort themselves out and don't be selfish.

If you've commenced travel you're stuck 1 year to the day from when you left.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:16 am

fkfnz wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Virgin hasn't confirmed yet, thinking they will exit the Tasman completely.


That would solve my personal problem of rescheduling my upcoming Virgin flights, because hopefully at that point they'll just have to refund.


I’ve got the same issue that I’m hoping will get fixed by an cancellation, I’ve got an VA AKL-BNE-DPS-MEL-AKL trip booked, but booked via Expedia as VA’s website struggled to ticket it...

If you booked directly with VA, they now have an online form now to cancel your flight and request your credit.
 
NPL8800
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:45 am

In other aviation news and a positive one for sure, NPLs new terminal opened today, a great asset for the region that will cope well into the future. Design is fresh and modern with plenty more space and no more pinch points
 
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Karlos
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:06 am

Flew in from MEL on NZ124 this evening.
Eerily quiet in the arrivals area.
Will be a ghost town once the rest of the kiwis currently overseas trickle home.

Interesting too that NZ has apparently changed the chemical used to clean the tray tables and whatever the new stuff is, it's reaction on the plastic is making them look stained. They went to great lengths to point out that while they look bad they are definitely not anything to worry about.
 
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CarbonFibre
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:10 am

So just to confirm, NZ are stopping London on Saturday but only temporarily?
 
Deepinsider
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:20 am

Quite soon now, arrangments will be needed to park all the planes.
I imagine SYD (QF) and AKL (NZ) will be an impossible price, except
in the immediate short term, and not much space anyway.
Whenuapai Rwy 08/26 and Ohakea 15/33
aren't really needed (in a crisis like this), and a phone call from Jacinda
to the Base commander could make it happen.
Only trouble is, New Zealand's awful damp and salty environment.
Alice Springs probably full of QF, etc and the Western USA expensive to
get to and rather too distant for the back to service maintenance.
Just one more headache for the new AirNZ CEO. Nice of him to
volunteer a reduction of salary, but if he pulls off a covid-19 survival,
then double salary should be on the table!
p.s.Good to see ZK-NZE up and running. And it put up with nearly
a year in our environment! Composite though, the metal A320 and
777 series might be tricky. Could parking the 787's and using up time
remaining on the 772's help, being that fuel prices are plunging so much?
Last edited by Deepinsider on Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:37 am

[*]
CarbonFibre wrote:
So just to confirm, NZ are stopping London on Saturday but only temporarily?


Yes until June 30th, but tbh who knows what things will look like tomorrow let alone next week or in 3 months time, will they return to LHR at all? There is a chance they won’t imo, we will have to wait and see.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:29 am

The only remaining TT flights
WLG-SYD x2
CHC-SYD x2
AKL-SYD x7
AKL-BNE x5
AKL-MEL x7

ADL,CNS,MCY,OOL,PER,CHC-BNE,CHC-OOL,CHC-MEL,WLG-BNE,WLG-MEL and any ZQN flights have all been cut. Effectively including the longhaul cuts there are only about 10 flights a day ex AKL intl.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
Deepinsider
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:46 pm

aerorobnz wrote:
The only remaining TT flights
WLG-SYD x2
CHC-SYD x2
AKL-SYD x7
AKL-BNE x5
AKL-MEL x7

ADL,CNS,MCY,OOL,PER,CHC-BNE,CHC-OOL,CHC-MEL,WLG-BNE,WLG-MEL and any ZQN flights have all been cut. Effectively including the longhaul cuts there are only about 10 flights a day ex AKL intl.

This reality is quite scary. But what an opportunity for AKL to grab the chance
and nominate scheduled airport closures and catch up on their so far woeful rwy
maintenance. Are they nimble enough? Somehow I doubt it. But then....A few
more consultants...let's hope!
 
nascarnut
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:51 pm

I imagine based on Air NZ's announced cuts, the only aircraft flying Internationally will be the 789's and the 320NEO and 321NEO. These are the most fuel effecient aircraft in the fleet.
I could see them parking the OJ* 320's at Whenuapai while the 777 fleet will be parked at CHC/Ohakea and AKL.
Not sure when the domestic A320's, OAB/OJQ/OJR/OJS leases are due to expire but they were going to be the first to go replaced by 321's on the domestic trunk sometime later this year.
With the WLG/CHC Intl reduction to a total of 4 flights per week and zero Intl flights from ZQN and only limited Pacific Island flying, there may be a lot more NEO flying on the Domestic trunks while the older OJ* fleet get parked up and readied for return to leasors.
Will we see a possible introduction of ATR's on the AKL-WLG sectors during the off peak period from say 1000 - 1500. Flying time just a little longer but shorter boarding and deboarding time and no security hassles (even though security is extremely quiet now). The operate them on the WLG-CHC sector and pax quite happy.
Time will tell
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:38 pm

I can imagine that Air NZ will postpone any further aircraft deliveries for at least a year if not two years. That the reason why is they will want to preserve their remaining cash for the day to day running of the business. They even might need a loan to continue after May. Things are looking very bleak now.

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