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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:17 am

DavidByrne wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Sure, but is a second runway still going to be required after this in the medium term, even so? Unlike with the GFC, which was a cyclical downturn, we are now arguably beginning a structural shift, with permanent implications for aviation demand. For example, the Finance Minister said this week that: "New Zealand will fundamentally have to reassess what is done on these shores ... we've also got to look inside ourselves a little bit more at what we do here in New Zealand. We need to be looking at what we can and should do ourselves". That may mean shifts in export and import compositions and volumes, longer-term, which currently sustain parts of flights. There may also be permanent shifts in consumer preferences around tourism, with implications for aviation. It seems right to be cautious.

Absolutely agree. There has been little reported in the NZ press of the longer-term implications of the virus, but international media have noted that the drop in global GDP will almost certainly exceed the drop in GDP that occurred during the Great Depression of the 1929-35ish period (which was only 15%). If these predictions are correct (and remember that the trillions of dollars pumped into global economies so far will have to be found from somewhere, eventually - almost certainly from you and I as taxpayers) then all bets are off re the shape of the airline industry in future. I cannot see that it will just be a matter of waiting things out and then reverting to the status quo ante in a reasonably short period. We've already seen that Virgin has announced it will not return to our skies, and there will surely be other carriers that follow suit. Some of the Chinese carriers for starters. You have to worry also about the new Samoan carrier unless the company is heavily subsidised by the Samoan government. But there will almost certainly be more who either fail or who choose to withdraw some of their furthest-flung routes.

I don't see NZ itself resuming some of its current international destinations for many years. Right now, the long-haul network has an uncanny resemblance to the long-haul network at the first stage of the DC8 age in 1965/early 1966 (that was 2x weekly to LAX, 2x weekly to HKG, period) - except with many fewer Tasman connections. Obviously there will be many routes that will resume in the medium term, but some may be lost.

And as for a second runway at AKL - that's now pie-in-the-sky for the foreseeable future. AIAL will have many more pressing concerns for a good number of years (like how to balance the books) than worrying about mega-dollar investments. And don't hold your breath for a new terminal either: that will be low priority once traffic stabilises at a lower level than 2019.


DavidByrne you like to write a lot regarding worst case scenario and quote "international media" to justify this.

We don't know how long this will or won't go on for therefore and prediction or speculations are just that.

I've read some of this, I've also read some of the positive, but unless you've got a crystal ball or believe in tarot cards let's see how and what unfolds.

To clarify a very key element of what I originally said which was doing something when things start to improve. I'm not saying build now and as I just wrote in my last reply, this will buy AIAL time, it was only a few months ago we were saying it was sooo overdue. This will allow a reset button to be pressed but only if AIAL acts at the appropriate time and doesn't wait till it's overdue again.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:07 am

NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne you like to write a lot regarding worst case scenario and quote "international media" to justify this.

We don't know how long this will or won't go on for therefore and prediction or speculations are just that.

It’s not that I “like” to post re the pessimistic side of things, but more a question of challenging some of the absurdly optimistic views which have been put forward. Especially about major investments. Companies that are on their knees are not going to invest billions in terminals and runways when demand has dropped.

Sadly, there is absolutely no local media outlet in NZ of any real quality or analytical substance. If you want to find out what’s really going on in the world, you need to look to serious international outlets. And no, that doesn’t mean USA Today or Fox News!
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:54 am

We are currently witnessing history in the making. At the moment so much is changing so quickly more and more flying is reduced. Air NZ 30 strong widebody fleet is slowling down in activity. Some have not flown for a while. most aircraft are just doing a single flight per day.So far 3 777s have postioned to CHC for storage. Here is recent flights from yesterday for the fleet:

NZC AKL-SIN 23/3 NZ6004
NZD NRT-AKL 6/2 NZ90
NZE AKL-SIN 28/3 NZ284
NZF NRT-AKL 28/3 NZ90
NZG CHC-AKL 25/3 NZ6144
NZH NRT-AKL 26/3 NZ90
NZI TPE-AKL 2/2 NZ78
NZJ AKL-NRT 28/3 NZ99
NZK AKL-RAR 28/3 NZ46
NZL YVR-AKL 22/3 NZ23
NZM AKL-APW 28/3 NZ255
NZN YVR-AKL 22/3 NZ23
NZQ MEL-AKL 27/3 NZ124
NZR YVR-AKL 28/3 NZ23

OKA AKL-SIN 22/2 NZ6002
OKB IAH-AKL 27/3 NZ29
OKC AKL-CHC 25/3 NZ6231
OKD AKL-CHC 26/3 NZ6231
OKE AKL-PER 28/3 NZ175
OKF AKL-CHC 8/3 NZ6235
OKG AKL-HNL 28/3 NZ10
OKH AKL-NAN 29/3 NZ952
OKM AKL-SFO 28/3 NZ8
OKN BNE-AKL 23/3 NZ136
OKO SFO-AKL 27/3 NZ7
OKP SFO-AKL 28/3 NZ7
OKR LAX-AKL 27/3 NZ1
OKS AKL-LAX 28/3 NZ2
OKT AKL-TPE 27/3 NZ6019 Returned
 
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qf789
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:03 am

To put things in perspective NZ normally carries an average of 48000 passengers a day, yesterday they only carried 670 passengers

https://twitter.com/CamWallace_NZ/statu ... 18304?s=20
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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:04 am

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne you like to write a lot regarding worst case scenario and quote "international media" to justify this.

We don't know how long this will or won't go on for therefore and prediction or speculations are just that.

It’s not that I “like” to post re the pessimistic side of things, but more a question of challenging some of the absurdly optimistic views which have been put forward. Especially about major investments. Companies that are on their knees are not going to invest billions in terminals and runways when demand has dropped.

Sadly, there is absolutely no local media outlet in NZ of any real quality or analytical substance. If you want to find out what’s really going on in the world, you need to look to serious international outlets. And no, that doesn’t mean USA Today or Fox News!


Yeah I'm a little more optimistic than others. Go back over my posts though, you'll see I've commented some negative too. Such as a downsizing in NZ's fleet and some destinations going which will happen.

I'd also reply with a further comment to say once more, I'm not asking, suggesting or expecting AIAL to invest now. I've said when things start to improve and not wait till it's too late like they have previously.

As for the media, NZ media are good at covering local situations but I do agree that they fail to report on global issues. Thankfully many of us can access CNBC, CNN and Al Jazeera, Sky News Australia on SkyTV but also have access to the interweb for online content.
 
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MillwallSean
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:19 am

It is my belief that Virgin will be back. Not because they want to but because presently they have no choice. They have no partner covering NZ.
Virgin will desperately need to maintain the few larger corporate accounts they got and most large Australian companies have a decent footprint in New Zealand. With almost all the subsiduaries for the Australians being in Auckland, its no bold prediction to assume that Auckland will eventually be resumed.
The rest, probably lost, unless they want to keep, say Queenstown open seasonaly.

When it comes to the generation infected the most in NZ its really hard to say. More or less no one gets tested based on my experience; we had cases at work, no one on the same floor got tested and more than a dozen has been home with cough and flue like symptoms. But the advise have been to stay put since manageable.
My immidiate feeling is that the government had interesting apporoaches to this. We banned travelfrom China quite early. Then when the situation were devloping in Europe and the US we didnt ban travel from there. Rather peculiar and when you look at the economy, trande patterns and economic impacts - this makes little sense. the damange from stopping travel from Cgina was much bigger than what stoppig travel from the US would have been (for example). Hence the inconsistency makes little sense.
Not sure if it was emotionally to hard to ban travel from 'western' countries or if there were other perceptions in play. But that I guess will be for future case studies to investigate.

Since so many of the cases keeps being linked to overseas travellers (mainly western countries) lets hope that everyone entiring these islands are put straight into quanrantine. That seems to be the best way for us to emerge from this god damn awful lockdown.
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SCFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:23 am

My tip is that there's a slim chance of VA resuming AKL only on a skeletal timetable. Timed to connect from their partners and/or TransPac flights. Leaving from BNE/SYD/MEL around 8-9am and a same day return by Australian crews back into the east coast cities around 4-5pm.

To go out there, an even slimmer chance of CHC once daily from one city (likely BNE), and Queenstown seasonally from the East Coast cities.

All other VA TT flights (WLG, DUD, NTL/OOL-AKL, etc) likely gone/terminated for the long term (if not permanently)
 
zkeoj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:33 am

a7ala wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
a7ala wrote:
I can’t find the article where va says they are pulling off the Tasman. All I can find on the website quoted is Scurrah saying the NZ base won’t return. That’s not the same as no Tasman operation. I wonder if the stuff article has come to the wrong conclusion?


Check 5 posts above your one and you will see the article


Article has been updated now (It quotes another article which is what i was referring to). Mis-interpretation as I thought. VA hasn’t decided if they will come back or not.


No, the article says "Virgin Australia says it intends to resume flights across the Tasman after the coronavirus crisis has passed.

"We have announced a temporary suspension of all international flying, including New Zealand," a spokeswoman for the airline said.

"We intend to recommence services when viable to do so."

I, too, read it as they will come across the Tasman again, but with OZ-based crews.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120655 ... app-iPhone
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:57 am

Air NZ is down to a skeleton schedule out of Christchurch tomorrow with only 34 departures compared with 85 domestic departures on a normal weekday.
CHC to AKL 6 320
CHC to WLG 8 ATR
CHC to DUD, NSN, IVC, ZQN 3 each
CHC to HKK 1 Q300
Most routes to North Island regional cities down to one per day except HLZ down to two. So things are going to get very quiet from tomorrow onwards.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:58 am

MillwallSean wrote:
It is my belief that Virgin will be back. Not because they want to but because presently they have no choice. They have no partner covering NZ.
Virgin will desperately need to maintain the few larger corporate accounts they got and most large Australian companies have a decent footprint in New Zealand. With almost all the subsiduaries for the Australians being in Auckland, its no bold prediction to assume that Auckland will eventually be resumed.
The rest, probably lost, unless they want to keep, say Queenstown open seasonaly..


SCFlyer wrote:
My tip is that there's a slim chance of VA resuming AKL only on a skeletal timetable. Timed to connect from their partners and/or TransPac flights. Leaving from BNE/SYD/MEL around 8-9am and a same day return by Australian crews back into the east coast cities around 4-5pm.

To go out there, an even slimmer chance of CHC once daily from one city (likely BNE), and Queenstown seasonally from the East Coast cities.

All other VA TT flights (WLG, DUD, NTL/OOL-AKL, etc) likely gone/terminated for the long term (if not permanently)


When NZ/VA alliance was split I suggested VA to go back to their roots . Go back to what worked and compete with JQ & QF in the low cost market but be a great low-cost carrier. Be Domestic only and build this up and then branch into Pacific. NZ and Bali with narrowbody aircraft.

VA isn't a great full service airline which is why they've struggled to win a lot corporate contracts, well here in NZ anyway especially when you're up against QF/NZ

I really hope they do come back on the Tasman, even if it's AKL-SYD/MEL/BNE, WLG-SYD and CHC-SYD.
 
Gangurru
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:41 am

qf789 wrote:
To put things in perspective NZ normally carries an average of 48000 passengers a day, yesterday they only carried 670 passengers

https://twitter.com/CamWallace_NZ/statu ... 18304?s=20


Annualised that is about 244,000.
NAC and TEAL flew that many passengers in 1950.
On a per capita basis, that is the same as 1939 when passengers flew on Union Airways Dominies into Rongotai at Wellington.

1950 NZ Year book, Page 330 for airline stats
https://books.google.com.au/books?id=3q ... 50&f=false

Page 147 for the parliamentary debate on airlines with stats on 1939 levels
https://books.google.com.au/books?id=WO ... 45&f=false
 
mrkerr7474
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:13 am

zkeoj wrote:
a7ala wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:

Check 5 posts above your one and you will see the article


Article has been updated now (It quotes another article which is what i was referring to). Mis-interpretation as I thought. VA hasn’t decided if they will come back or not.


No, the article says "Virgin Australia says it intends to resume flights across the Tasman after the coronavirus crisis has passed.

"We have announced a temporary suspension of all international flying, including New Zealand," a spokeswoman for the airline said.

"We intend to recommence services when viable to do so."

I, too, read it as they will come across the Tasman again, but with OZ-based crews.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120655 ... app-iPhone


Earlier this morning the news article heading and article itself was different which gave a clear understanding that they were ending the services to NZ. Since I posted a response to the article, the article has subsequently been updated with different information and a newer title.

Apologies, I was just going off information from this morning, not trying to cause anything and yes I agree now that the article since its changed, does make it that they will come back to NZ, perhaps just in a smaller version than previously
 
aerokiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:22 am

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne you like to write a lot regarding worst case scenario and quote "international media" to justify this.

We don't know how long this will or won't go on for therefore and prediction or speculations are just that.

It’s not that I “like” to post re the pessimistic side of things, but more a question of challenging some of the absurdly optimistic views which have been put forward. Especially about major investments. Companies that are on their knees are not going to invest billions in terminals and runways when demand has dropped.

Sadly, there is absolutely no local media outlet in NZ of any real quality or analytical substance. If you want to find out what’s really going on in the world, you need to look to serious international outlets. And no, that doesn’t mean USA Today or Fox News!


Yeah but you do seem to almost be relishing in the worst possible outcome. We get it, it's tough out there. Local media is, unsurprisingly, focusing on local issues.

Perhaps your supremely pessimistic views should be open to challenge too, maybe?
 
aerokiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:27 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
zkeoj wrote:
a7ala wrote:

Article has been updated now (It quotes another article which is what i was referring to). Mis-interpretation as I thought. VA hasn’t decided if they will come back or not.


No, the article says "Virgin Australia says it intends to resume flights across the Tasman after the coronavirus crisis has passed.

"We have announced a temporary suspension of all international flying, including New Zealand," a spokeswoman for the airline said.

"We intend to recommence services when viable to do so."

I, too, read it as they will come across the Tasman again, but with OZ-based crews.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120655 ... app-iPhone


Earlier this morning the news article heading and article itself was different which gave a clear understanding that they were ending the services to NZ. Since I posted a response to the article, the article has subsequently been updated with different information and a newer title.

Apologies, I was just going off information from this morning, not trying to cause anything and yes I agree now that the article since its changed, does make it that they will come back to NZ, perhaps just in a smaller version than previously


So, when this passes, and it will, I imagine International routes will be opened in stages depending on each country's or region's Covid19 status.

It's likely New Zealand and Australia will emerge at the same time-ish, or at least that the two countries will resume connections wih each other before any others. In which case, you may see a sudden flood of travel as pent up demand for travel is realised between the two markets. Tasmania, Broome, SE Queensland, FNQ, the Central NSW Coast, NZ... all could be in demand.

In which case, VA returning to ZQN and possibly AKL at least shouldn't be totally discounted.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:16 am

aerokiwi wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne you like to write a lot regarding worst case scenario and quote "international media" to justify this.

We don't know how long this will or won't go on for therefore and prediction or speculations are just that.

It’s not that I “like” to post re the pessimistic side of things, but more a question of challenging some of the absurdly optimistic views which have been put forward. Especially about major investments. Companies that are on their knees are not going to invest billions in terminals and runways when demand has dropped.

Sadly, there is absolutely no local media outlet in NZ of any real quality or analytical substance. If you want to find out what’s really going on in the world, you need to look to serious international outlets. And no, that doesn’t mean USA Today or Fox News!


Yeah but you do seem to almost be relishing in the worst possible outcome. We get it, it's tough out there. Local media is, unsurprisingly, focusing on local issues.

Perhaps your supremely pessimistic views should be open to challenge too, maybe?

There’s nothing whatsoever to relish - I’m concerned that there is a strong sense of unreality amongst some A-Netters, and it’s important to restore some balance.

If you think that my views should be challenged, go right ahead - that’s the A-Net way. Without dissenting views there’s no dialogue!
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ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:55 am

Obviously way way to early to know what will happen to NZ’s fleet mainly long haul I’m thinking of at the moment, could the entire 777 fleet be grounded and not return? Unlikely maybe but here’s a few scenarios I’ve thought of for arguments sake. I’d see the key in maintaining the OZ-AKL-US routes so long as the US isn’t doing to bad. some routes maybe back before others and frequency could start lower frequency or smaller aircraft.

1. Entire 777 fleet grounded long haul fleet maybe summer 2020/21 is 14 789s with a fairly skeletal schedule covering most markets and I’m going with no more TPE/ICN/CHC-SIN/PER, RAR-SYD/LAX, EWR delayed, id see EZE important given its the only South America route.

frequency listed.

LAX x7, SFO x6, IAH x5, ORD x3, YVR x4, EZE x3, HNL x4, SIN x7, HKG x7, NRT x7, PVG x7, PER x7. Uses 13.5 of 14 789s, I’ll go with needing 8 code 2 and 6 code 1.

UA add a LAX flight if capacity needed as part of JV plus SFO maybe just 4x SFO, 3x LAX 787. AC codeshare to YVR and run 4 weekly again so overall 8 weekly NZ/AC. Planned with a day flight to PVG assuming among all the cuts they can get a late afternoon slot. EWR delayed. Look to bring 781 entry forward to 2021 should things be looking ok, maybe change to 789 though at least some of the order.

2. Entire 772 fleet retired all 7 77W remain, if things go ok maybe a slightly higher frequency on main routes to LAX/SFO/IAH/ORD/YVR, maybe KIX can.

3. Leased 772s leave which is I believe 4, only minimal reductions to schedule.

4. All leased 777s leave which I believe is 4 772s and 3 77Ws. Can run 77W to LAX/SFO daily in peak season, 772s additional LAX/IAH.

5. 77W fleet retired first immediately as to many seats. Look to bring 781 foward to expedite 772 retirement as well but 772 remains short term.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:53 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
1. Entire 777 fleet grounded long haul fleet maybe summer 2020/21 is 14 789s with a fairly skeletal schedule covering most markets and I’m going with no more TPE/ICN/CHC-SIN/PER, RAR-SYD/LAX, EWR delayed, id see EZE important given its the only South America route.

frequency listed.

LAX x7, SFO x6, IAH x5, ORD x3, YVR x4, EZE x3, HNL x4, SIN x7, HKG x7, NRT x7, PVG x7, PER x7. Uses 13.5 of 14 789s, I’ll go with needing 8 code 2 and 6 code 1.

UA add a LAX flight if capacity needed as part of JV plus SFO maybe just 4x SFO, 3x LAX 787. AC codeshare to YVR and run 4 weekly again so overall 8 weekly NZ/AC. Planned with a day flight to PVG assuming among all the cuts they can get a late afternoon slot. EWR delayed. Look to bring 781 entry forward to 2021 should things be looking ok, maybe change to 789 though at least some of the order.

I think your Option 1 may not be too far from the mark, though it won't be achievable immediately. After that, I think that growth will arrive through the delivery of the 787-10s. A WB fleet of around 22 aircraft in a few years' time seems about right to me.

[This is me being optimistic!]
Last edited by DavidByrne on Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:46 pm

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12320809

Freight flights to PVG first flight tonight. Presume 789.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:53 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
1. Entire 777 fleet grounded long haul fleet maybe summer 2020/21 is 14 789s with a fairly skeletal schedule covering most markets and I’m going with no more TPE/ICN/CHC-SIN/PER, RAR-SYD/LAX, EWR delayed, id see EZE important given its the only South America route.

frequency listed.

LAX x7, SFO x6, IAH x5, ORD x3, YVR x4, EZE x3, HNL x4, SIN x7, HKG x7, NRT x7, PVG x7, PER x7. Uses 13.5 of 14 789s, I’ll go with needing 8 code 2 and 6 code 1.

UA add a LAX flight if capacity needed as part of JV plus SFO maybe just 4x SFO, 3x LAX 787. AC codeshare to YVR and run 4 weekly again so overall 8 weekly NZ/AC. Planned with a day flight to PVG assuming among all the cuts they can get a late afternoon slot. EWR delayed. Look to bring 781 entry forward to 2021 should things be looking ok, maybe change to 789 though at least some of the order.

I think your Option 1 may not be too far from the mark, though it won't be achievable immediately. After that, I think that growth will arrive through the delivery of the 787-10s. A WB fleet of around 22 aircraft in a few years' time seems about right to me.

[This is me being optimistic!]


I guess how many flights will the airline want anywhere if there are still pockets in the world where Covid19 is having a major affect?

I’d imagine a few more links to short haul markets first maybe, Australia and Pacific Islands.

It will be interesting to see how this affects 5th freedom flying not so much for NZ as LHR will be gone, but transit pax, airlines like SQ/EK etc will always have a roll with the amount of people from OZ/NZ to Europe, also alliances, NZ will want to have a presence in Europe via codeshares etc.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:43 pm

Very interesting 20-min discussion by aviation analysts last night on Al Jazeera's excellent "Inside Story" on the future of the airline industry. Some of the main takeaways for me:

* All three analysts agreed that very few, if any, airlines would survive without government support.
* Most airlines would end up downsizing significantly as a result of the virus. (I saw elsewhere that both UA and DL have clearly said that they will have long-term contraction, loss of routes etc).
* There would be a significant drop in leisure traffic because there would be so much less disposable income available.
* Health concerns (both while flying and in the destination countries) would not ease quickly and would limit the recovery.
* Northern Hemisphere airlines would be very significantly hit because they are just moving into what would ordinarily be their peak summer period (fortunately the opposite for NZ).
* African carriers would also be especially hard hit because of both the potential for ongoing virus transmission with inadequate health facilities in many countries, impecunious governments, and also the fragility of the African airline market generally (a few carriers like ET excepted, I assume).
* Issues like seat comfort and service will in future be seen as very much less relevant than whether the airline can actually get you to where you want to go.

On the other hand, they seemed optimistic that business travel would bounce back (though no one mentioned the extraordinary boom we're seeing in video conferencing and whether that would have an impact on the business market). And that fares would be lowered to try to attract people back (though I'm sceptical whether airlines that are operating in survival mode will actually be able to afford many discounts, even in the medium term).

Make what you will of all this - it's just three analysts, after all, but they seemed to be pretty well in tune with what was going on in the aviation world (government support for NZ was specifically mentioned). But it reinforces my belief that the outcome for NZ may be not too far from ZK-NBT's Option 1 which, with the addition in a couple of years of the eight 787-10s, would represent a contraction of about 25% for NZ's international operations over the medium term.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
aerohottie
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:58 pm

Wishful thinking, but NZ could reduce economy abreast seating on the 777s from 10 to 9, and on the 787s from 9 to 8 :-)
That would reduce capacity in the short-term
What?
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:15 am

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... -some-time

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has warned New Zealanders should get used to border restrictions in New Zealand and overseas, saying they're likely to be in place "for some time".

She said border restrictions overseas would likely persist until a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, believed to be one year to eighteen months away at the earliest - some vaccines take a decade to develop.

"We will be having to manage covid-19 for months, until of course there is a vaccine and that will be many months," she said.

Ardern told RNZ: "I'm anticipating border restrictions for some time."


Interesting times ahead unfortunately I think.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:23 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Very interesting 20-min discussion by aviation analysts last night on Al Jazeera's excellent "Inside Story" on the future of the airline industry. Some of the main takeaways for me:

* All three analysts agreed that very few, if any, airlines would survive without government support.
* Most airlines would end up downsizing significantly as a result of the virus. (I saw elsewhere that both UA and DL have clearly said that they will have long-term contraction, loss of routes etc).
* There would be a significant drop in leisure traffic because there would be so much less disposable income available.
* Health concerns (both while flying and in the destination countries) would not ease quickly and would limit the recovery.
* Northern Hemisphere airlines would be very significantly hit because they are just moving into what would ordinarily be their peak summer period (fortunately the opposite for NZ).
* African carriers would also be especially hard hit because of both the potential for ongoing virus transmission with inadequate health facilities in many countries, impecunious governments, and also the fragility of the African airline market generally (a few carriers like ET excepted, I assume).
* Issues like seat comfort and service will in future be seen as very much less relevant than whether the airline can actually get you to where you want to go.

On the other hand, they seemed optimistic that business travel would bounce back (though no one mentioned the extraordinary boom we're seeing in video conferencing and whether that would have an impact on the business market). And that fares would be lowered to try to attract people back (though I'm sceptical whether airlines that are operating in survival mode will actually be able to afford many discounts, even in the medium term).

Make what you will of all this - it's just three analysts, after all, but they seemed to be pretty well in tune with what was going on in the aviation world (government support for NZ was specifically mentioned). But it reinforces my belief that the outcome for NZ may be not too far from ZK-NBT's Option 1 which, with the addition in a couple of years of the eight 787-10s, would represent a contraction of about 25% for NZ's international operations over the medium term.


To be honest, I don't think you need to be an "expert" to come to most of these conclusions.

Airlines have huge outgoing costs and almost no incoming money. This virus will create a global recession and the consequence of this is lighter travel demand or downsizing of airlines.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:25 am

aerohottie wrote:
Wishful thinking, but NZ could reduce economy abreast seating on the 777s from 10 to 9, and on the 787s from 9 to 8 :-)
That would reduce capacity in the short-term


But that costs money.

Is that project cost going to pay itself off and increase revenue they wouldn't otherwise have?
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:29 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120670604/coronavirus-jacinda-ardern-warns-border-restrictions-will-exist-for-some-time

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has warned New Zealanders should get used to border restrictions in New Zealand and overseas, saying they're likely to be in place "for some time".

She said border restrictions overseas would likely persist until a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, believed to be one year to eighteen months away at the earliest - some vaccines take a decade to develop.

"We will be having to manage covid-19 for months, until of course there is a vaccine and that will be many months," she said.

Ardern told RNZ: "I'm anticipating border restrictions for some time."


Interesting times ahead unfortunately I think.

V/F


No doubt this will be the norm well into next year.

The better contained it becomes the less restrictions there will be. I take this as we won't remove all restrictions at once and definitely won't be happening after lockdown.

I can see if moving to a place similar to the old arrival card, have you been to X within the last 14 days or if you visit X you need to self isolate for 14 days.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:35 am

NZ6 wrote:
To be honest, I don't think you need to be an "expert" to come to most of these conclusions.

Airlines have huge outgoing costs and almost no incoming money. This virus will create a global recession and the consequence of this is lighter travel demand or downsizing of airlines.

Agree 100%. I've been saying all this stuff for a fortnight or so, and have been frequently accused of undue pessimism. It seems ironic that now that others are saying the same it's not pessimistic, it's obvious.

The post was aimed at those who think that everything's going to be just fine in a few months, and that all the airlines' routes will quickly be re-established. Though the number who now think that seems to be shrinking by the day. But also it's an advertisement for Al Jazeera, whose coverage of the crisis and its consequences has been second-to-none from the very start.
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:56 am

aerohottie wrote:
Wishful thinking, but NZ could reduce economy abreast seating on the 777s from 10 to 9, and on the 787s from 9 to 8 :-)
That would reduce capacity in the short-term


I like the way you think. If only this would be the case. I think reducing capacity is more related to number of aircraft, or size of aircraft rather than sheer number of seats. Would be nice tho.
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zkeoj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:57 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
zkeoj wrote:
a7ala wrote:

Article has been updated now (It quotes another article which is what i was referring to). Mis-interpretation as I thought. VA hasn’t decided if they will come back or not.


No, the article says "Virgin Australia says it intends to resume flights across the Tasman after the coronavirus crisis has passed.

"We have announced a temporary suspension of all international flying, including New Zealand," a spokeswoman for the airline said.

"We intend to recommence services when viable to do so."

I, too, read it as they will come across the Tasman again, but with OZ-based crews.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120655 ... app-iPhone


Earlier this morning the news article heading and article itself was different which gave a clear understanding that they were ending the services to NZ. Since I posted a response to the article, the article has subsequently been updated with different information and a newer title.

Apologies, I was just going off information from this morning, not trying to cause anything and yes I agree now that the article since its changed, does make it that they will come back to NZ, perhaps just in a smaller version than previously


mrkerr7474: Now that makes sense! From the earlier discussion I understood it the other way around, i.e. that *first* they said they will return, and *then* they said they'd pull out entirely. Obviously, I misunderstood that - my apologies for that, and thanks for the clarification!
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:08 am

aerohottie wrote:
Wishful thinking, but NZ could reduce economy abreast seating on the 777s from 10 to 9, and on the 787s from 9 to 8 :-)
That would reduce capacity in the short-term

To quote the hardware store advert with the kids playing in the sandpit: "Mate, you're dreamin!"
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PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:08 am

DavidByrne wrote:
The post was aimed at those who think that everything's going to be just fine in a few months, and that all the airlines' routes will quickly be re-established. Though the number who now think that seems to be shrinking by the day. But also it's an advertisement for Al Jazeera, whose coverage of the crisis and its consequences has been second-to-none from the very start.


The Guardian UK website is also an excellent source. https://theguardian.com/international

PA515
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:12 am

PA515 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
The post was aimed at those who think that everything's going to be just fine in a few months, and that all the airlines' routes will quickly be re-established. Though the number who now think that seems to be shrinking by the day. But also it's an advertisement for Al Jazeera, whose coverage of the crisis and its consequences has been second-to-none from the very start.


The Guardian UK website is also an excellent source. https://theguardian.com/international

PA515

Agree, that's another really good source. The Guardian phone app is especially convenient and well-organised.
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:20 am

I wonder if now that NZ has sold LHR slots for a tidy sum, and the world has changed considerably again, if they might now be able to again pick up some cheap LHR slots (airlines won’t be needing them/will need cash), and look to resume LHR next year (all crew from AKL). NZ will have the spare capacity, and the route does diversify NZ’s flying somewhat.
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:54 am

TaniTaniwha wrote:
aerohottie wrote:
Wishful thinking, but NZ could reduce economy abreast seating on the 777s from 10 to 9, and on the 787s from 9 to 8 :-)
That would reduce capacity in the short-term


I like the way you think. If only this would be the case. I think reducing capacity is more related to number of aircraft, or size of aircraft rather than sheer number of seats. Would be nice tho.


That or the 77E's get an freight conversion done, NZ is operating 787/777s current only freight only flights to at-least bring some revenue back in.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:16 am

Zkpilot wrote:
I wonder if now that NZ has sold LHR slots for a tidy sum, and the world has changed considerably again, if they might now be able to again pick up some cheap LHR slots (airlines won’t be needing them/will need cash), and look to resume LHR next year (all crew from AKL). NZ will have the spare capacity, and the route does diversify NZ’s flying somewhat.


All airlines will have the capacity. Why would NZ fly to LHR again to diversify the network? Then you need a hotel for them to stay in being AKL based, via LAX again? Wishful thinking.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:18 am

zkncj wrote:
TaniTaniwha wrote:
aerohottie wrote:
Wishful thinking, but NZ could reduce economy abreast seating on the 777s from 10 to 9, and on the 787s from 9 to 8 :-)
That would reduce capacity in the short-term


I like the way you think. If only this would be the case. I think reducing capacity is more related to number of aircraft, or size of aircraft rather than sheer number of seats. Would be nice tho.


That or the 77E's get an freight conversion done, NZ is operating 787/777s current only freight only flights to at-least bring some revenue back in.


No freight conversion available on the 772. That would take months per aircraft, I understand the problem on the 772 is the floor beams would need reinforcing at significant cost which is why no one has offered this.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:22 am

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
To be honest, I don't think you need to be an "expert" to come to most of these conclusions.

Airlines have huge outgoing costs and almost no incoming money. This virus will create a global recession and the consequence of this is lighter travel demand or downsizing of airlines.

Agree 100%. I've been saying all this stuff for a fortnight or so, and have been frequently accused of undue pessimism. It seems ironic that now that others are saying the same it's not pessimistic, it's obvious.

The post was aimed at those who think that everything's going to be just fine in a few months, and that all the airlines' routes will quickly be re-established. Though the number who now think that seems to be shrinking by the day. But also it's an advertisement for Al Jazeera, whose coverage of the crisis and its consequences has been second-to-none from the very start.


Frankly, you'e under-cooking your own past dire predictions and over-cooking other's less dire predictions. You even have to qualify the experts' assessments with your videoconferencing and fare discounting predictions.

No one is doubting the seriousness of this. But your predictions have been absolutely dire for absolutely everyone for all time. Whereas I and others have suggested that it may not be that grim. You're not the put-upon one here. The sector bounced backed and boomed after 9-11. It did so again after the GFC. This one may take longer, but the bounceback will come again.

One area that will be interesting to see is the impact on the smaller operators. I know there was earlier discussion about this for NZ 3rd level operators, but has there been government support specifically targeting them? The Australian government announced a relief package the other day for that.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:08 am

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
To be honest, I don't think you need to be an "expert" to come to most of these conclusions.

Airlines have huge outgoing costs and almost no incoming money. This virus will create a global recession and the consequence of this is lighter travel demand or downsizing of airlines.

Agree 100%. I've been saying all this stuff for a fortnight or so, and have been frequently accused of undue pessimism. It seems ironic that now that others are saying the same it's not pessimistic, it's obvious.

The post was aimed at those who think that everything's going to be just fine in a few months, and that all the airlines' routes will quickly be re-established. Though the number who now think that seems to be shrinking by the day. But also it's an advertisement for Al Jazeera, whose coverage of the crisis and its consequences has been second-to-none from the very start.


It's not that you've been saying these things.... it's to the extent you've been saying them. You're rightly or wrongly expressing an absolute worst possible case scenario.

What these people have reported (based on your bullet points) is along the lines of GFC, 9/11, H1N1, SARS etc. I remember (vaguely) reports saying most airlines wouldn't survive bird flu... many didn't. Some did.

Let's just play week by week as it's uncharted territory.

Even worst case scenario... NZ isn't expecting to shrink to the levels some are thinking. Markets will return in time.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:29 am

Air NZ 77E ZK-OKA returning from maintenance as NZ6003 SIN-CHC on Wed 01 Apr.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-oka

PA515
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:50 am

PA515 wrote:
Air NZ 77E ZK-OKA returning from maintenance as NZ6003 SIN-CHC on Wed 01 Apr.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-oka

PA515


Are anymore going up there at the moment? That will make 4 772s in CHC with OKC/OKD/OKF.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:55 am

NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
To be honest, I don't think you need to be an "expert" to come to most of these conclusions.

Airlines have huge outgoing costs and almost no incoming money. This virus will create a global recession and the consequence of this is lighter travel demand or downsizing of airlines.

Agree 100%. I've been saying all this stuff for a fortnight or so, and have been frequently accused of undue pessimism. It seems ironic that now that others are saying the same it's not pessimistic, it's obvious.

The post was aimed at those who think that everything's going to be just fine in a few months, and that all the airlines' routes will quickly be re-established. Though the number who now think that seems to be shrinking by the day. But also it's an advertisement for Al Jazeera, whose coverage of the crisis and its consequences has been second-to-none from the very start.


It's not that you've been saying these things.... it's to the extent you've been saying them. You're rightly or wrongly expressing an absolute worst possible case scenario.

What these people have reported (based on your bullet points) is along the lines of GFC, 9/11, H1N1, SARS etc. I remember (vaguely) reports saying most airlines wouldn't survive bird flu... many didn't. Some did.

Let's just play week by week as it's uncharted territory.

Even worst case scenario... NZ isn't expecting to shrink to the levels some are thinking. Markets will return in time.


When you say in time, what is in time? If we are talking 1 year they would probably hold on to most of the fleet, but could bring 781 entry forward? Although things like the new product might mean they don’t do that. 2 years though and a you have the 781 arriving, so in the short term you could possibly lose the whole 777 fleet and look 2 years ahead, they will be constantly reviewing where things are at.

Either way it’s fun to play economist and speculate where things will be, granted it will also take time to kick the Coronavirus which is currently the biggest worry.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:06 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Agree 100%. I've been saying all this stuff for a fortnight or so, and have been frequently accused of undue pessimism. It seems ironic that now that others are saying the same it's not pessimistic, it's obvious.

The post was aimed at those who think that everything's going to be just fine in a few months, and that all the airlines' routes will quickly be re-established. Though the number who now think that seems to be shrinking by the day. But also it's an advertisement for Al Jazeera, whose coverage of the crisis and its consequences has been second-to-none from the very start.


It's not that you've been saying these things.... it's to the extent you've been saying them. You're rightly or wrongly expressing an absolute worst possible case scenario.

What these people have reported (based on your bullet points) is along the lines of GFC, 9/11, H1N1, SARS etc. I remember (vaguely) reports saying most airlines wouldn't survive bird flu... many didn't. Some did.

Let's just play week by week as it's uncharted territory.

Even worst case scenario... NZ isn't expecting to shrink to the levels some are thinking. Markets will return in time.


When you say in time, what is in time? If we are talking 1 year they would probably hold on to most of the fleet, but could bring 781 entry forward? Although things like the new product might mean they don’t do that. 2 years though and a you have the 781 arriving, so in the short term you could possibly lose the whole 777 fleet and look 2 years ahead, they will be constantly reviewing where things are at.

Either way it’s fun to play economist and speculate where things will be, granted it will also take time to kick the Coronavirus which is currently the biggest worry.


We don't know when it will end. From what I know there's a range of options and scenarios being planned for but it's tricky/risky to act now.

20-30% shrinkage is realistic.

Some of that will be from the Tasman and Domestic too.

I'm expecting some 772s to be released early as well as some A320's

As for your question re time. What's the line in the sand used to measure this, return to Feb levels or return to manageable levels. There's a difference in strong performance and nurturing routes back to good health. I'd take the latter right now over other possible outcomes and call that a victory
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:32 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

It's not that you've been saying these things.... it's to the extent you've been saying them. You're rightly or wrongly expressing an absolute worst possible case scenario.

What these people have reported (based on your bullet points) is along the lines of GFC, 9/11, H1N1, SARS etc. I remember (vaguely) reports saying most airlines wouldn't survive bird flu... many didn't. Some did.

Let's just play week by week as it's uncharted territory.

Even worst case scenario... NZ isn't expecting to shrink to the levels some are thinking. Markets will return in time.


When you say in time, what is in time? If we are talking 1 year they would probably hold on to most of the fleet, but could bring 781 entry forward? Although things like the new product might mean they don’t do that. 2 years though and a you have the 781 arriving, so in the short term you could possibly lose the whole 777 fleet and look 2 years ahead, they will be constantly reviewing where things are at.

Either way it’s fun to play economist and speculate where things will be, granted it will also take time to kick the Coronavirus which is currently the biggest worry.


We don't know when it will end. From what I know there's a range of options and scenarios being planned for but it's tricky/risky to act now.

20-30% shrinkage is realistic.

Some of that will be from the Tasman and Domestic too.

I'm expecting some 772s to be released early as well as some A320's

As for your question re time. What's the line in the sand used to measure this, return to Feb levels or return to manageable levels. There's a difference in strong performance and nurturing routes back to good health. I'd take the latter right now over other possible outcomes and call that a victory


Obviously it costs to have multiple or even 1-2 aircraft sitting on the ground, but in some cases it may be cheaper than trying to end leases early? Owned aircraft are probably cheaper to park, particularly the payed off ones.

I would say manageable levels, I feel it will take some time for levels to bounce back to what they were a month ago. I’m sure there will be some nurturing of routes that cost a lot to set up that they won’t just drop.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:52 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
I wonder if now that NZ has sold LHR slots for a tidy sum, and the world has changed considerably again, if they might now be able to again pick up some cheap LHR slots (airlines won’t be needing them/will need cash), and look to resume LHR next year (all crew from AKL). NZ will have the spare capacity, and the route does diversify NZ’s flying somewhat.


All airlines will have the capacity. Why would NZ fly to LHR again to diversify the network? Then you need a hotel for them to stay in being AKL based, via LAX again? Wishful thinking.

Will they though? There will be dozens of not more airlines go bust over this. Of the ones remaining most of mot all will be significantly smaller and most will be very financially challenged. Even with a bailout, the big 3 in America are getting rid of hundreds of aircraft for example.
VS is struggling and will probably cut LAX to a single daily, BA 1 or 2 but smaller planes same with others. Opens quite a gap in that important market. Fuel is the cheapest it’s been in over a decade. Shouldn’t be hard to arrange a hotel in London with less demand. Like I said, if slots are now going cheap (if...) then could be a nice option for NZ.
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:58 am

All this talk of getting rid of 77E and bringing forward 78J Tallis just nonsense.
1) Cheapest fuel in over a decade (fuel efficiency isn’t so important).
2) sale value - 77E are almost worthless to sell now.
3) purchase price of 78J - hundreds of millions which NZ won’t want to be spending anytime soon.
4) finance costs - 77E are fully depreciated etc they basically only cost their maintenance and very cheap leases now vs interest (was it 9%?) and/or lease costs on hundreds of millions.
Nope sorry but with everything that’s going on they aren’t going to bring them forward. They might drop a couple of planes that are surplus but they’re trying to conserve cash.
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:08 am

Zkpilot wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
I wonder if now that NZ has sold LHR slots for a tidy sum, and the world has changed considerably again, if they might now be able to again pick up some cheap LHR slots (airlines won’t be needing them/will need cash), and look to resume LHR next year (all crew from AKL). NZ will have the spare capacity, and the route does diversify NZ’s flying somewhat.


All airlines will have the capacity. Why would NZ fly to LHR again to diversify the network? Then you need a hotel for them to stay in being AKL based, via LAX again? Wishful thinking.

Will they though? There will be dozens of not more airlines go bust over this. Of the ones remaining most of mot all will be significantly smaller and most will be very financially challenged. Even with a bailout, the big 3 in America are getting rid of hundreds of aircraft for example.
VS is struggling and will probably cut LAX to a single daily, BA 1 or 2 but smaller planes same with others. Opens quite a gap in that important market. Fuel is the cheapest it’s been in over a decade. Shouldn’t be hard to arrange a hotel in London with less demand. Like I said, if slots are now going cheap (if...) then could be a nice option for NZ.


Yep several airlines will probably disappear. Part of the reason airlines will be smaller initially at least is demand will likely take sometime to recover. The Atlantic is BA/VS bread and butter, LAX is one of the biggest markets for them. NZ didn’t drop LHR because it didn’t make money but rather it no longer fitted their strategy. It’s not arranging a hotel it’s the on going cost which they didn’t have before as the crew lived in LON. What market are NZ trying to serve by going back to LHR? Sure It will take a while for NZ the country to recover as well.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:20 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
PA515 wrote:
Air NZ 77E ZK-OKA returning from maintenance as NZ6003 SIN-CHC on Wed 01 Apr.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-oka

PA515


Are anymore going up there at the moment? That will make 4 772s in CHC with OKC/OKD/OKF.


None that I could see earlier today.

A few weeks ago I had a look at the 77W schedule from 11 March to 31 May 2020. The number of 77Ws in use reduced to seven from Sun 15 Mar, then six from Sun 05 Apr which I interpreted as ZK-OKT finishing and a 77W in SIN for maintenance, not necessarily in that order. Also, there was a 77W not in use Mo-Fr 27 Apr - 01 May, 04-08 May, 11-15 May, 18-22 May and 25-29 May which matched the Mo-Fr 77E Y+ refurbishment schedule, so I interpreted that as five 77W Y+ refurbishments. I guess the SIN maintenance could still go ahead, but the Y+ work is either not happening or delayed.

There's something about Wifi on the Air NZ website. The rest of the 77Es and 77Ws were to get Wifi by the end of 2020, and the 789s would start getting it later in 2020. If some of that Wifi has already been paid for then maybe it will proceed as planned. https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/wifi

PA515
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:21 am

Zkpilot wrote:
All this talk of getting rid of 77E and bringing forward 78J Tallis just nonsense.
1) Cheapest fuel in over a decade (fuel efficiency isn’t so important).
2) sale value - 77E are almost worthless to sell now.
3) purchase price of 78J - hundreds of millions which NZ won’t want to be spending anytime soon.
4) finance costs - 77E are fully depreciated etc they basically only cost their maintenance and very cheap leases now vs interest (was it 9%?) and/or lease costs on hundreds of millions.
Nope sorry but with everything that’s going on they aren’t going to bring them forward. They might drop a couple of planes that are surplus but they’re trying to conserve cash.


I’m no expert but you have to see the seriousness of the situation. I agree we don’t know yet what that is and anything we say is pure speculation, which I enjoy a bit of in this context.

1. Yes fuel is cheap, aircraft aren’t so having multiple aircraft parked for to long might not be an option so they may offload more than you think, they might not as well.

2. Benefits of mix of owning and leasing, parking some owned frames could be an option, as you say they won’t be worth anything. Trying to end leases early, it maybe more cost effective to keep flying them and park owned frames.

3. Simplify the fleet sooner, park entire 777 fleet and use the 781 to grow, yes as you say fuel is cheap but there are other savings. There may be financing they can get that will benefit the 781 coming earlier.

4. There will be benefits to keeping the 772s as well I agree If they are needed.

Conserving cash yep, but they also have to look at how to best move forward long term.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:04 am

PA515 wrote:
Air NZ 77E ZK-OKA returning from maintenance as NZ6003 SIN-CHC on Wed 01 Apr.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-oka

PA515


The entire 77E fleet is earmarked for storage at CHC. Very unlikely they will fly for us again.
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:05 am

NZ6 wrote:
It's not that you've been saying these things.... it's to the extent you've been saying them. You're rightly or wrongly expressing an absolute worst possible case scenario.

Hey I don't mean to upset people by offering negative scenarios. I just call it the way I see it, just as everyone else does on this forum. I get the feeling, though, that some people want this to be a "good news" forum, and don't want unwarranted optimism called out for what it is.

I've looked back over my posts over the last couple of weeks, and I don't think there's much I would change. Much of what I've said which was pooh-poohed at the time has already come to pass. Some of the issues I've raised a week ago about the the crisis for the travel industry probably lasting a long time now been publicly spoken about by our PM (she suggested 12-18 months). I don't claim any special insight, other than being a keen student of global affairs as well as the airline industry.

I'm genuinely sorry if my pessimism has upset people. I've recorded my agreement on a number of occasions in the last fortnight with posters who have taken a more nuanced view. But I don't see why unbridled optimism should get a free ride.

aerokiwi wrote:
You even have to qualify the experts' assessments with your videoconferencing and fare discounting predictions.

Eh? So just because the "experts" (which another poster said were just stating the obvious anyway) didn't mention something in a short TV interview that means it can't be a thing? Or that I can't offer an alternative view on the likelihood of fare discounting? Is there a script or something which I am not aware of?
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:59 am

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12321018

NZ starting to trim its workforce starting overseas. To become mainly domestic airline in the short term.
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