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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:31 pm

If that's all they are doing for NZ it won't be enough to weather this storm, I think that is going to mean curtains for the majority of the staff tbh unless they can fly again soon..
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1567
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:34 am

aerorobnz wrote:
If that's all they are doing for NZ it won't be enough to weather this storm, I think that is going to mean curtains for the majority of the staff tbh unless they can fly again soon..

I think the chances of NZ flying again internationally soon are slim and that sadly there will be more retrenchments. A skeleton service may be possible in a few weeks or a month, but we have to face the reality that the virus is still very much on the upward curve in all of NZ's markets with the possible exception of China. And of course the virus has barely touched New Zealand so far, and it's a matter of time only before case numbers start to grow exponentially, so the chances of allowing foreigners into New Zealand are also remote in the short term. Cuts to domestic services are surely imminent as demand slackens, even in the absence (so far) of any requirement to lock-down or mass self-isolate.

The airline industry will surely look very different in a couple of years from now than it did at the beginning of 2020. People and businesses which have suffered financially during the virus will be very cautious with their money even after the virus is a memory, as they will have significant amounts of debt or will have to commit their resources to the basics of rebuilding their businesses. Many businesses will not survive at all. This is not an environment in which airlines will thrive, and I'm even more convinced that while NZ will survive (because it HAS to) it will be a much smaller airline than it was. Much smaller.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:16 am

planemanofnz wrote:
We've seen international border restrictions, but one thing that's gone unnoticed, and has more potential, has been domestic restrictions.

Already, we've seen it with the Chatham Islands. Air Chathams notes that it is now screening all non-resident passengers going to the Chathams Islands. Our staff are calling all passengers booked to travel now. We are assisting the Chatham Islands communities in protecting their home and their concerns regarding COVID-19 through the measures we are putting in place, effective immediately.

Non-resident passengers who have been;
- overseas in the last 30 days,
- in contact with someone self-isolating in the last week,
- shown signs of cold or flu symptoms in the last 7 day,

Will not be permitted to travel to the Chatham Islands until further notice.


It will be interesting to see if similar measures are applied to islands like Great Barrier Island and Stewart Island, which also have air links.

Cheers,

C.


Part of the extra precautions surely has to be their isolation and access to medical assistance.

Can you imagine how quickly it could go around the 600 odd residents?

Great Barrier and Stewart Islands are much more accessible to the mainland but also have much more frequent sea contact.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:38 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Interesting how much greater JQ's reduction on the trunk routes is compared to NZ's. On a random search in late-March, NZ is still showing about 20 flights per day from WLG to AKL. The lowest fares on NZ's trunk domestic flights have also come down quite a bit - every day now about $59, compared to some days a few weeks ago, where you would have seen over $200 equivalents.

I do wonder if this may be the beginning of the end for JQ in New Zealand, domestically, and whether if they did exit, 3C could step in and enter some routes like WLG - CHC and ZQN with ATR 72's. That is, if 3C is still around this time next year after all of this is over.

Cheers,

C.


I wouldn't be surprised to see JQ mothball their NZ operations within the next 7 days.

As for 3C opportunities if JQ do.... No, just no.

Even when borders open and things like 'self isolation' or social distancing' fade away. it'll take time for the tourists to start flowing and for business to pick up. Many will struggle for years, that's the ones that make it. In the meantime NZ's going to have excess capacity sitting there and will have to bring down domestic pricing to fill planes.

That doesn't make anything easy for 3C
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:12 am

jimmyah wrote:
pbm wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Not enough, unless there is other undisclosed assistance.


How much do they need? At 31 December, they had about $1 billion in the bank, I tried to track down their existing credit facilities and couldn't quickly find it. What is their month to month cashflow?


In the 2019 FY, according to their cashflow statement they were spending on average 403m per month on "payments to suppliers and employees". When we look at their income statement, there is a monthly operating cost of 384m, 100m each on labour and fuel. so maybe from now, looking at expenses of around 200m per month?


How so... you've not wiped 99% of either cost. You still have 100% of that labor and 10-15% of that fuel.

$300-320m based on this information
 
jimmyah
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:32 am

NZ6 wrote:
jimmyah wrote:
pbm wrote:

How much do they need? At 31 December, they had about $1 billion in the bank, I tried to track down their existing credit facilities and couldn't quickly find it. What is their month to month cashflow?


In the 2019 FY, according to their cashflow statement they were spending on average 403m per month on "payments to suppliers and employees". When we look at their income statement, there is a monthly operating cost of 384m, 100m each on labour and fuel. so maybe from now, looking at expenses of around 200m per month?


How so... you've not wiped 99% of either cost. You still have 100% of that labor and 10-15% of that fuel.

$300-320m based on this information


You have 70% of the labour and 15% of the fuel. Plus a decrease in marketing etc.

UBS aviation analyst Marcus Curly said it was forecasting Air New Zealand to be burning $211m a month from the start of April while Forsyth Barr analyst Andy Bowley estimated Air New Zealand's monthly overheads to be $160m a month.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... ew-zealand
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:57 am

Has anyone see any information around how much NZ owes passengers for canceled flights? Ok they trying to convert canceled flights to credits instead.

Obviously they would be carrying an massive liability to passengers for payments taken, for services not provided.

What protection does New Zealand have in place for this? eg the UK has there ATOL scheme for hoilday packages, so New Zealand have anything, take it passengers are just are unsecured creditors.

Is it time that the travel industry in New Zealand, has some protection going forward e.g. fares being held in trust etc.

If NZ was to go out of bussiness every second New Zealander would have something lost.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:12 am

NZ6 wrote:
Many will struggle for years ...

If a lot of the regional airlines go bankrupt, and NZ has to scale back, I think the government would step in to protect air services to some isolated/vulnerable places - namely the Chatham Islands, the West Coast of the South Island (Hokitika), and maybe Gisborne. Great Barrier and Stewart Islands seem to be served by sea adequately.

Anywhere else?

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:40 am

The schedule changes were on the news tonight. From around 3700 weekly flights down to 1500 weekly around 55% cut not as bad as first thought. So hopefully not too many staff will have to loose their jobs. This might be of interest to some on the Govt rescue plan for Air NZ:

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zea ... rt-package
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:49 am

Greg Foran discuss future of the company a 30 min video:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2 ... eline.html
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:43 am

jimmyah wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
jimmyah wrote:

In the 2019 FY, according to their cashflow statement they were spending on average 403m per month on "payments to suppliers and employees". When we look at their income statement, there is a monthly operating cost of 384m, 100m each on labour and fuel. so maybe from now, looking at expenses of around 200m per month?


How so... you've not wiped 99% of either cost. You still have 100% of that labor and 10-15% of that fuel.

$300-320m based on this information


You have 70% of the labour and 15% of the fuel. Plus a decrease in marketing etc.

UBS aviation analyst Marcus Curly said it was forecasting Air New Zealand to be burning $211m a month from the start of April while Forsyth Barr analyst Andy Bowley estimated Air New Zealand's monthly overheads to be $160m a month.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... ew-zealand


Right, I've lost track of how many figures there are to run the airline per month.

Greg Foran today said he was comfortable with the $900m saying he believed it would see the airline though this situation. I'm of the opinion, the end of June is the likely working deadline at this current stage and it would seem that's perhaps around the same time frame that the government is anticipating as well.

Who knows though.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:53 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Many will struggle for years ...

If a lot of the regional airlines go bankrupt, and NZ has to scale back, I think the government would step in to protect air services to some isolated/vulnerable places - namely the Chatham Islands, the West Coast of the South Island (Hokitika), and maybe Gisborne. Great Barrier and Stewart Islands seem to be served by sea adequately.

Anywhere else?

Cheers,

C.


I was meaning local non tourism or even aviation business. This ripples though almost every industry.

Chatham Islands need an air link. It's the lifeline to the island like Air NZ is to the whole country. It's why it's so important for 3C to remain protected from undue risk with growing too quickly or expanding into high risk markets.

3C itself will likely exit PPQ. WHK even if temporarily. Their charter flights if they're on currently (or soon to be) will be cancelled as well. If 3C goes under, I suspect someone like Air Work will pick up the freight run therefore no bailout for 3C. Sadly as they're iconic and I don't want to see them go.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:03 am

NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Many will struggle for years ...

If a lot of the regional airlines go bankrupt, and NZ has to scale back, I think the government would step in to protect air services to some isolated/vulnerable places - namely the Chatham Islands, the West Coast of the South Island (Hokitika), and maybe Gisborne. Great Barrier and Stewart Islands seem to be served by sea adequately.

Anywhere else?

Cheers,

C.


I was meaning local non tourism or even aviation business. This ripples though almost every industry.

Chatham Islands need an air link. It's the lifeline to the island like Air NZ is to the whole country. It's why it's so important for 3C to remain protected from undue risk with growing too quickly or expanding into high risk markets.

3C itself will likely exit PPQ. WHK even if temporarily. Their charter flights if they're on currently (or soon to be) will be cancelled as well. If 3C goes under, I suspect someone like Air Work will pick up the freight run therefore no bailout for 3C. Sadly as they're iconic and I don't want to see them go.

3C is reducing PPQ to once-daily, WHK and WAG to twice-daily. I don’t see them exiting these markets, particularly if they can downsize routes from Saabs to Metros in response to demand. I’m not sure how busy their ATR will be in the current environment; hopefully they can find some flying for it. I do agree that I doubt we would see them take on high risk markets now - until everything is firmly established back on a solid footing I can see them sticking to their bread and butter. Their public statements over the last couple of years seem to indicate more of a willingness to work alongside Air New Zealand as opposed to against them too.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
zkeoj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:01 pm

zkncj wrote:
Has anyone see any information around how much NZ owes passengers for canceled flights? Ok they trying to convert canceled flights to credits instead.



I don't think they "owe" anything, other than good will. Like weather, natural disaster, etc, this is an "act of god", and thus not the airlines' fault. They all are doing amazingly well to let postpone free of charge - many airlines now without charging for the possible fare difference (initially, most said you can re-book, but have to pay a fare difference). Of course, they want to fly as soon as possible, so forward bookings are important to them.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:01 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
If a lot of the regional airlines go bankrupt, and NZ has to scale back, I think the government would step in to protect air services to some isolated/vulnerable places - namely the Chatham Islands, the West Coast of the South Island (Hokitika), and maybe Gisborne. Great Barrier and Stewart Islands seem to be served by sea adequately.

Anywhere else?

Cheers,

C.


I was meaning local non tourism or even aviation business. This ripples though almost every industry.

Chatham Islands need an air link. It's the lifeline to the island like Air NZ is to the whole country. It's why it's so important for 3C to remain protected from undue risk with growing too quickly or expanding into high risk markets.

3C itself will likely exit PPQ. WHK even if temporarily. Their charter flights if they're on currently (or soon to be) will be cancelled as well. If 3C goes under, I suspect someone like Air Work will pick up the freight run therefore no bailout for 3C. Sadly as they're iconic and I don't want to see them go.

3C is reducing PPQ to once-daily, WHK and WAG to twice-daily. I don’t see them exiting these markets, particularly if they can downsize routes from Saabs to Metros in response to demand. I’m not sure how busy their ATR will be in the current environment; hopefully they can find some flying for it. I do agree that I doubt we would see them take on high risk markets now - until everything is firmly established back on a solid footing I can see them sticking to their bread and butter. Their public statements over the last couple of years seem to indicate more of a willingness to work alongside Air New Zealand as opposed to against them too.

V/F


I’m predicting more travel restrictions domestically before we start popping out the other side of this thing.

Once everyone has relocated home you have to wonder where any demand to travel will come from.

At least with the Chathams Freight will keep 3C going out there for now.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:11 pm

New Zealand just introduced an 4 level alert system for COVID-19 - we just been set as level two which is reduce domestic travel.

Gusse we will see NZ cut domestic services majorly come Monday.
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:46 pm

zkeoj wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Has anyone see any information around how much NZ owes passengers for canceled flights? Ok they trying to convert canceled flights to credits instead.



I don't think they "owe" anything, other than good will. Like weather, natural disaster, etc, this is an "act of god", and thus not the airlines' fault. They all are doing amazingly well to let postpone free of charge - many airlines now without charging for the possible fare difference (initially, most said you can re-book, but have to pay a fare difference). Of course, they want to fly as soon as possible, so forward bookings are important to them.


I think the airlines have gone completely above & beyond in terms of extending goodwill. I've been issued vouchers for two cancelled "non refundable" trips to Australia. Both NZ and QF have extended frequent flier status for a year. There's no legal compulsion for any of this.
 
zkeoj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:45 am

Gasman wrote:
zkeoj wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Has anyone see any information around how much NZ owes passengers for canceled flights? Ok they trying to convert canceled flights to credits instead.



I don't think they "owe" anything, other than good will. Like weather, natural disaster, etc, this is an "act of god", and thus not the airlines' fault. They all are doing amazingly well to let postpone free of charge - many airlines now without charging for the possible fare difference (initially, most said you can re-book, but have to pay a fare difference). Of course, they want to fly as soon as possible, so forward bookings are important to them.


I think the airlines have gone completely above & beyond in terms of extending goodwill. I've been issued vouchers for two cancelled "non refundable" trips to Australia. Both NZ and QF have extended frequent flier status for a year. There's no legal compulsion for any of this.


Totally agree, Gasman! I think most airlines are doing an amazing job, despite the circumstances.
 
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qf789
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:57 am

Just a reminder if you posting factual information, links to sources need to be provided in your post as well
Forum Moderator
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:04 am

zkncj wrote:
Has anyone see any information around how much NZ owes passengers for canceled flights? Ok they trying to convert canceled flights to credits instead.


The Policy has been updated. But bookings are all over the place, it's agents, online, OAL, some travel has gone with no action and so forth. It'll take time to come to a precise figure. An accountant could come to a calculated estimate but what's the priority or benefit in this now.

zkncj wrote:
Obviously they would be carrying an massive liability to passengers for payments taken, for services not provided.


It's also a reason to get people travelling again. So aids in kick starting flowing passengers again.

Not the reason to prefer credits. That's about trying to hold onto revenue.

zkncj wrote:
What protection does New Zealand have in place for this? eg the UK has there ATOL scheme for hoilday packages, so New Zealand have anything, take it passengers are just are unsecured creditors.

Is it time that the travel industry in New Zealand, has some protection going forward e.g. fares being held in trust etc..


I honestly think the protection for New Zealanders is Air New Zealand, Haven't they shown endless times before they'll do the right thing to help people out? It doesn't matter if it's a global crises, or pandemic in this case or your favorite band cancelling a concert. They normally come to the party with a Policy.

If they've cancelled it due to technical issues, crew sickness or industrial action for example you always get a refund.

If it's beyond their control, Airways New Zealand outages, weather, border closures and so on.. the airline is ready and "willing" to operate so you get a credit or fall back on insurance if you're fares non-refundable.

I guess what I'm trying to say or ask is, whats't the issue you're trying to solve and is there an issue?
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:18 am

qf789 wrote:
Just a reminder if you posting factual information, links to sources need to be provided in your post as well


If that was reference to schedules that were posted at top of page 6, it was from internal comms between airport/airlines. Can't give login access to any links posted as a result. Just trying to keep people abreast of the latest impacts to AKL as they happen.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:36 am

NZ6 wrote:
I honestly think the protection for New Zealanders is Air New Zealand, Haven't they shown endless times before they'll do the right thing to help people out? It doesn't matter if it's a global crises, or pandemic in this case or your favorite band cancelling a concert. They normally come to the party with a Policy.

If they've cancelled it due to technical issues, crew sickness or industrial action for example you always get a refund.

If it's beyond their control, Airways New Zealand outages, weather, border closures and so on.. the airline is ready and "willing" to operate so you get a credit or fall back on insurance if you're fares non-refundable.

I guess what I'm trying to say or ask is, whats't the issue you're trying to solve and is there an issue?


What I'm trying to ask/out is if NZ was going out of business next week, how much would people be out of pocket overall? assuming passenger fares paid would be one of the lowest unsecured creditors in an receivership claim aka they would likely to get nothing.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:18 am

zkncj wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I honestly think the protection for New Zealanders is Air New Zealand, Haven't they shown endless times before they'll do the right thing to help people out? It doesn't matter if it's a global crises, or pandemic in this case or your favorite band cancelling a concert. They normally come to the party with a Policy.

If they've cancelled it due to technical issues, crew sickness or industrial action for example you always get a refund.

If it's beyond their control, Airways New Zealand outages, weather, border closures and so on.. the airline is ready and "willing" to operate so you get a credit or fall back on insurance if you're fares non-refundable.

I guess what I'm trying to say or ask is, whats't the issue you're trying to solve and is there an issue?


What I'm trying to ask/out is if NZ was going out of business next week, how much would people be out of pocket overall? assuming passenger fares paid would be one of the lowest unsecured creditors in an receivership claim aka they would likely to get nothing.


True but is this an issue?

I'd need to look it up to be 100% but the airline's been profitable for 10-15 years, year on year since a few years after the 2002 issue hasn't it.

Isn't that enough for everyone to be comfortable it's well manged irrespective of some decisions they make then when extreme things beyond their control cripple the business the government will step in. I mean they've put themselves in a position where they have $1.1 Billion in cash available.

Just another point, the airline's held a strong investment credit rating for a long time. Within the top airlines of the world at times.

I guess I'm saying we should have some confidence in the airline with regard to buying tickets in advance and the normal risk of losing ticket value is actually very low.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:58 am

NZ6 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
I honestly think the protection for New Zealanders is Air New Zealand, Haven't they shown endless times before they'll do the right thing to help people out? It doesn't matter if it's a global crises, or pandemic in this case or your favorite band cancelling a concert. They normally come to the party with a Policy.

If they've cancelled it due to technical issues, crew sickness or industrial action for example you always get a refund.

If it's beyond their control, Airways New Zealand outages, weather, border closures and so on.. the airline is ready and "willing" to operate so you get a credit or fall back on insurance if you're fares non-refundable.

I guess what I'm trying to say or ask is, whats't the issue you're trying to solve and is there an issue?


What I'm trying to ask/out is if NZ was going out of business next week, how much would people be out of pocket overall? assuming passenger fares paid would be one of the lowest unsecured creditors in an receivership claim aka they would likely to get nothing.


True but is this an issue?

I'd need to look it up to be 100% but the airline's been profitable for 10-15 years, year on year since a few years after the 2002 issue hasn't it.

Isn't that enough for everyone to be comfortable it's well manged irrespective of some decisions they make then when extreme things beyond their control cripple the business the government will step in. I mean they've put themselves in a position where they have $1.1 Billion in cash available.

Just another point, the airline's held a strong investment credit rating for a long time. Within the top airlines of the world at times.

I guess I'm saying we should have some confidence in the airline with regard to buying tickets in advance and the normal risk of losing ticket value is actually very low.

Exactly! On top of that the government is a 52% owner and won’t let the airline fail.

In other news not sure if it’s a one off but looks like IAH route might be shutting down several days earlier than planned as at least one flight looks to be cancelled.
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planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:19 am

QR dropping AKL from early April. No re-start date announced. QR continuing to SYD, MEL, ADL and PER, but dropping CBR too in Australasia.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21mar20/

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:33 am

planemanofnz wrote:
QR dropping AKL from early April. No re-start date announced. QR continuing to SYD, MEL, ADL and PER, but dropping CBR too in Australasia.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21mar20/

Cheers,

C.


Judging by that it’s canceled until May 31st so the current plan looks to be resume from June 1st, however that will be far from certain.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:55 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
QR dropping AKL from early April. No re-start date announced. QR continuing to SYD, MEL, ADL and PER, but dropping CBR too in Australasia.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21mar20/

Cheers,

C.


Judging by that it’s canceled until May 31st so the current plan looks to be resume from June 1st, however that will be far from certain.

Ah, indeed - I can book flights on QR's website ex-AKL from June. But yes, suggest it is highly likely any re-start will be much later than June!

Interesting that of all the Australasian ports served non-stop from DOH, only AKL was cut. Surely places like ADL/PER are doing it just as tough.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:24 pm

I am hearing the last EK service operates into AKL around 28th but this is not announced anywhere that I can find. Certainly not on Airlineroute.
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NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:25 pm

Seems all foreign airlines will exit by end of March
Plane mad!
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:26 pm

How long do we think NZ will keep AKL-SIN open?
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:06 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
QR dropping AKL from early April. No re-start date announced. QR continuing to SYD, MEL, ADL and PER, but dropping CBR too in Australasia.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21mar20/

Cheers,

C.


Judging by that it’s canceled until May 31st so the current plan looks to be resume from June 1st, however that will be far from certain.

Ah, indeed - I can book flights on QR's website ex-AKL from June. But yes, suggest it is highly likely any re-start will be much later than June!

Interesting that of all the Australasian ports served non-stop from DOH, only AKL was cut. Surely places like ADL/PER are doing it just as tough.

Cheers,

C.


Your link has ADL being discontinued until 31 May, like Auckland. PER dropping from daily A380 to 4-weekly A350-900, SYD dropping from daily A380 to daily A350-1000.

I expect this isn’t the last update, either.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7251
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:01 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Seems all foreign airlines will exit by end of March


While an ongoing ever changing event, OTOH, so far we have the following operating in April May

SQ 3 weekly, TG 3 weekly, MH?, EK?, LA? not sure on the Chinese carriers

The following we know are suspended until atleast for a time.

CX, KE, QR, UA, FJ, QF
 
NZ6
Posts: 1469
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:04 pm

NZ321 wrote:
How long do we think NZ will keep AKL-SIN open?


Part of the government support was to keep this air link open.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1469
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:08 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
QR dropping AKL from early April. No re-start date announced. QR continuing to SYD, MEL, ADL and PER, but dropping CBR too in Australasia.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21mar20/

Cheers,

C.


Judging by that it’s canceled until May 31st so the current plan looks to be resume from June 1st, however that will be far from certain.

Ah, indeed - I can book flights on QR's website ex-AKL from June. But yes, suggest it is highly likely any re-start will be much later than June!

Interesting that of all the Australasian ports served non-stop from DOH, only AKL was cut. Surely places like ADL/PER are doing it just as tough.

Cheers,

C.

What's making you say this with such confidence?

suggest it is highly likely any re-start will be much later than June!

I keep hearing noise that an optimistic timeframe for border restrictions to be lifted is in June or with a slight delay into July.

Of course, it's a working estimate and as it unfolds it could move but if the tactics being used now are effective that's around when we should see the results. It's still over 12 weeks away.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4362
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:50 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
... not sure on the Chinese carriers

CZ and MU continue to fly to AKL 3x weekly each, I believe.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4362
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:00 pm

NZ6 wrote:
What's making you say this with such confidence?

Have a read of the Imperial College of London paper which is what many are saying is what has resulted in governments taking many of these measures, so quickly. ... "these policies ... will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more."

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

In addition, Health Minister Clark has said the border here is unlikely to open "for several months" ... "It's looking like longer term... We are going to be in this for the long haul".

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zea ... avid-clark

There are numerous examples of officials globally talking about this going into 2021. For example, see the Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials talked about in the article below. That article also notes the point about a second wave after a first.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... spitalised

For QR to AKL, they rely heavily on European connections, and Europe will seemingly be affected by this beyond June to the point where I don't think New Zealand would open the border by then, at least to Europe.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4362
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:16 pm

Where will NZ be parking most of its fleet? Just AKL and CHC?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4362
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:20 pm

NZ6 wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
How long do we think NZ will keep AKL-SIN open?


Part of the government support was to keep this air link open.

I think AKL - SIN will be one to remain open throughout. It is arguably the key link for us to Asia, Europe, Africa, India and the Middle East, and Singapore seems to be managing things well/won't go into lockdown.

Despite restrictions and travel risks for the next little while, there will always be a need for a very basic underlying key air service like this (i.e. getting diplomats around, essential air cargo like medical supplies, etc).

I also note that yesterday, New Zealand and Singapore signed at Ministerial-level a commitment to keeping supply chains open and removing any restrictions on essential goods like various medical supplies.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12318653

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4362
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
FJ

Indeed - FJ dropping all international flights from this coming Tuesday until at least 31 May.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -may-2020/

Cheers,

C.
 
Gasman
Posts: 2173
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:25 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
What's making you say this with such confidence?

Have a read of the Imperial College of London paper which is what many are saying is what has resulted in governments taking many of these measures, so quickly. ... "these policies ... will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more."

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

In addition, Health Minister Clark has said the border here is unlikely to open "for several months" ... "It's looking like longer term... We are going to be in this for the long haul".

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zea ... avid-clark

There are numerous examples of officials globally talking about this going into 2021. For example, see the Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials talked about in the article below. That article also notes the point about a second wave after a first.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... spitalised

For QR to AKL, they rely heavily on European connections, and Europe will seemingly be affected by this beyond June to the point where I don't think New Zealand would open the border by then, at least to Europe.

Cheers,

C.


The above is exactly right. Normality won't resume this year. The best we can hope for is some tentative loosening of the strings around the time of the late Northern hemisphere summer - but in the absence of a vaccine it's hard to see how even that could fly.

In New Zealand, our "wave" is about to come - and here's hoping we've instituted enough measures already to avoid a public health catastrophe (it's already an economic one). But if we get through our winter without a disaster, we'd find it even easier to avoid one at the end of the year - and by then a vaccine should be on the horizon.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7251
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:33 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Where will NZ be parking most of its fleet? Just AKL and CHC?

Cheers,

C.


I have heard OHA aswell. Lets be honest aswell we don't yet know the long term ramifications of this, the world economy will take sometime to recover from this, how many aircraft will not fly for NZ again, perhaps all the 772s, or atleast maybe they can return any leased 777s I think 4 772s and 3 77Ws, worst case scenario all the 777 fleet is done? They can negotiate the future delivery of the 78J to bring them forward if possible if required. I would imagine all the older A320s will be parked and hopefully the NEOs on order can be pushed out so I think 5 remaining regional A320s and the original 4 domestic frames which are leased until 2021 I think it is.

As for other carriers, some won't survive and others won't return IMO.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1469
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:34 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
What's making you say this with such confidence?

Have a read of the Imperial College of London paper which is what many are saying is what has resulted in governments taking many of these measures, so quickly. ... "these policies ... will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more."

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

In addition, Health Minister Clark has said the border here is unlikely to open "for several months" ... "It's looking like longer term... We are going to be in this for the long haul".

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zea ... avid-clark

There are numerous examples of officials globally talking about this going into 2021. For example, see the Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials talked about in the article below. That article also notes the point about a second wave after a first.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... spitalised

For QR to AKL, they rely heavily on European connections, and Europe will seemingly be affected by this beyond June to the point where I don't think New Zealand would open the border by then, at least to Europe.

Cheers,

C.


I'm not suggesting any of this is right or wrong. The truth is, no one knows.

I agree it's several months before the border opens. June-July is what I keep hearing which is several months away at best. I think the government is trying not to set any real strong expectations around a time-frame so they're not held to account or labelled as failing when truthfully nobody knows.

But there's also loads of comments being said around looking at where China is at and so forth
The $900 million dollars given to Air NZ won't last 6 months let alone 18 months.

So these lines of thinking also guide you into a sense of expectation.

And while I agree with various sources with regard to this crisis continuing into 2021 and beyond I'm just questioning when border restrictions will be lifted not when COVID-19 will be behind us.

I'd imagine when they do reopen the border, it won't be an overnight complete removal. It'll be heavily controlled such as no entry if travelling from Italy within 30 days (for example).

The pandemic experts are trying to break the infection rate curve. That's the backbone or the isolation theory, no nation has the medical infrastructure to support what will happen if you don't. Once that risk is isolated things may start to return to a "normal" state however the world will be on alert for some time and we'll still have measures in the background for months / years to come.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4362
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:35 pm

Gasman wrote:
... here's hoping we've instituted enough measures already to avoid a public health catastrophe.

The need for conservative restrictions, for longer, is arguably more necessary in New Zealand than elsewhere. We have nearly half the intensive care bed capacity per population as Australia, and a "poor" rating of 35th in the world for pandemic preparedness (compared to Australia's 4th place).

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12317275

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12314307

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4362
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:42 pm

NZ6 wrote:
June-July is what I keep hearing ...

You asked about QR's re-start date. I think one other factor is the EU border, given QR's reliance on European connections. Even if New Zealand reopens our border by June-July, which is what you are 'hearing', and which I suggest won't happen, will the EU have reopened its border by then too? And even if they do open, will their economy be able to support demand for travel to/from New Zealand, in light of non-corona related issues like Brexit?

I agree with you about a gradual re-opening of the border - perhaps with Australia/Australian citizens and PR's first.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1469
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:58 pm

Reading some of the comments here... leaves me wondering if some thrive on this level of disruption and watching it all unfold with excitement or if others hold a very bleak outlook driven perhaps by fear of what's often in the media and a worst case scenario.

I'm not attacking anyone either. It's not a criticism. There's been nothing like this since WW2 so it's big!

But just because China, Italy, USA and Span lost 'control' of the virus it doesn't mean we will and we don't have to wait for the virus to be eradicated from the face of the earth before we can all come out from under out beds.

The airline doesn't yet have to sell half it's fleet off.

I agree it'll take years for the world economy to come back to where it was. It'll take months and likely years to have normal passenger flows around the world again.

But try keep a balanced view. We will be okay. We will fly again, my prediction closer to mid year than end of the year.

They're just working 1-3 months out and will reassess after that. It'll be an opportunity to make needed adjustments to the fleet and the fleet will shrink in size.

Airlines will return, not back to the Feb schedule immediately, Some may not immediately or at all but most will.

There's every possibility we'll have limited flowing passengers and our usual '24-hour Tasman' sale back to action in July with things slowly progressing forward from there onwards.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4362
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:11 pm

This is pretty insane.

NZ's AKL - LAX flight is now probably the only air service between Australasia/the Southwest Pacific and the entirety of the Americas. All Australia - US flights have stopped. HA and AC have also cut flights, and in the Pacific, FJ and TN have too. To South America, LA is cutting Australasian flights (though its PPT flight is still running 1x weekly, it seems).

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... a-grounded

Is maintaining AKL - LAX a requirement under the government's $900 million NZ package this week? If so, should it be?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4362
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:15 pm

Phil Twyford (New Zealand's Transport Minister) has told 3C "we want to see Air Chathams come through this, and we will support you to ensure this happens".

http://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2020/03/ ... ister.html

The Chatham Islands Enterprise Trust has already loaned 3C $500,000 to "keep things fluid" - it'll be interesting to see if/when the government steps in.

Cheers,

C.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2027
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:18 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
This is pretty insane.

NZ's AKL - LAX flight is now probably the only air service between Australasia/the Southwest Pacific and the entirety of the Americas. All Australia - US flights have stopped. HA and AC have also cut flights, and in the Pacific, FJ and TN have too. To South America, LA is cutting Australasian flights (though its PPT flight is still running 1x weekly, it seems).

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... a-grounded

Is maintaining AKL - LAX a requirement under the government's $900 million NZ package this week? If so, should it be?

Cheers,

C.


AA is still operating LAX-AKL until March 28 when the seasonal suspension goes into effect.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4362
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:22 pm

NZ6 wrote:
Reading some of the comments here... leaves me wondering if others hold a very bleak outlook driven perhaps by fear of what's often in the media.

Call it a "bleak outlook" if you want, but at least it's backed up by academics like those from Imperial College of London (one of the top institutions globally for pandemics), and those in government, like Health Minister David Clark, rather than what someone unnamed 'hears' or has heard.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1469
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:32 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Reading some of the comments here... leaves me wondering if others hold a very bleak outlook driven perhaps by fear of what's often in the media.

Call it a "bleak outlook" if you want, but at least it's backed up by academics like those from Imperial College of London (one of the top institutions globally for pandemics), and those in government, like Health Minister David Clark, rather than what someone unnamed 'hears' or has heard.

Cheers,

C.


That wasn't targeted at anything specific or anyone specific. It's just a general observation.

Remember to place what they say into context. We're not reading a book with a determined outcome and they're talking about the Pandemic not the aviation industry or how the two interlink or how to balance the global economy against population heath or unsustainable demand on your medical system.

If that were the golden ticket we'd be in Alert Level 4 now and that way for some months.

As for my unnamed 'hears'..... where there's smoke there's fire. I'm sure predictions and conversations were had when NZ and the Government negotiated a loan based how this may play out.
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