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Dogman
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:17 pm

flyingphil wrote:
“Boeing said Air Canada canceled 11 Max aircraft while some other customers converted orders for larger planes. For example, aircraft leasing firm Air Lease converted nine Max planes into three 787s. Oman Air converted 10 Maxes into four 787s.”

Air Canada are saying they are still fully committed to the 737MAX and this is an adjustment to the original order.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/air ... 92.article

I wonder if MOL at Ryanair will make a move, or just sit tight and take the Boeing compensation.


Wikipedia lists only MAX 8 for Air Canada, delivered and on order. I seem to remember that there were MAX 10 on order, but now they are gone. So, may be an A321 order is coming up.
 
beechnut
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm

Air Canada never ordered the MAX 10. The initial order was for 61 aircraft, 50 MAX 8 and 11 MAX 9. A while back they deferred the MAX 9s, and now they have been cancelled altogether.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p/pubhtml#

Beech
 
Dogman
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:42 pm

beechnut wrote:
Air Canada never ordered the MAX 10. The initial order was for 61 aircraft, 50 MAX 8 and 11 MAX 9. A while back they deferred the MAX 9s, and now they have been cancelled altogether.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p/pubhtml#

Beech


I think I remember now that it was MAX 9.
 
snowkarl
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:26 am

morrisond wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
Can the COVID-19 kill the 737 MAX production ?

The scenario is a such major airlines collapsing that annihilate so much orders than the Airbus capacity to deliver the A32x neo obliterate the production of additional 737 MAX. The risk is probably very low now as to happens the remaining orders need to be in the range of a full year of A32x neo production. That means a collapsing of about 90% of the orders worldwide.


I think that scenario is pretty unlikely that only MAX orders would be cancelled - it's a big change for a lot of 737 airlines to switch over.

However that being said I can see the order books of all manufacturers taking a big hit on NB and WB's - it won't be hard to get a lot in the next few years if you want one.

I suspect the MAX will never get over rate 40 and the NEO won't increase from today's rate at best.

What about if (when) Boeing goes bankrupt?

What will happen to their orders?
 
sgrow787
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Re: Will history remember the MAX as a mistake?

Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:07 am

Revelation wrote:
I don't blame Boeing's executives for going ahead with MAX, the strategy was sound. The real issue was engineering not correctly evaluating the implications of the no sim training requirement and pushing back appropriately. They fudged the process to come up with the desired answer rather than letting the process tell them what the right answer was.


But there's not enough information to exonerate Boeing at this time. The more realistic scenario is some aeronautical and systems engineers got shot down in a design review meeting about the risks associated with the Max proposal - a process that would have taken 3 months or longer - before any work was started. And some executive just couldn't take the honesty they were getting. That's the likely scenario.

Experienced aeronautical engineers would have been reviewing engine nacelles, or would have known outright there were risks. The systems guys would have known the available resources of the existing NG computing hardware and would have said "it's close, no guarantees. it's possible we could deliver and work out the cross-channel issues simultaneously".
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:25 am

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/boeing ... -1.5492306
Transport Canada were acquiescent on MCAS prior to EIS:
'....test pilots posed questions about the 737 Max in 2016,...The documents show Transport Canada's test pilots asked for more information about the plane's automated anti-stall system before the Maxes were certified, but didn't get an explanation in time....Boeing asked Canada to approve the planes...."Please note that in order to meet its delivery commitments to the Canadian operators, Boeing has requested Transport Canada to issue its 737-MAX ATC [airworthiness certificate] in June 2017," the document from 2017 states......'

TC also missed the opportunity to get MAX grounded post Lion Air:
'...…Transport Canada in November 2018 asked Boeing....."Transport Canada requests further details to understand whether the potential exists for a single failure . . . to cause an inadvertent nose down pitch command from the stall identification system, which is considered to be catastrophic," according to the Nov, 2018 document.....'

Poor show. TC are culpable.

Ray

NB. Boeing required to testify in Canada. (will they? is another question).
'...NDP MP Taylor Bachrach asked the committee to call Boeing to testify in light of the severity of the case. The motion was unanimously carried with a deadline that Boeing must appear before committee by the end of April....'
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:43 pm

Et tu Brutus. WSJ- FAA Grand Jury witnesses put the knife into scape goat Forkner. Could be used as an 'in' for wider action against Boeing.

No pay wall version:
https://www.marketscreener.com/BOEING-C ... -30156295/

Ray
 
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Revelation
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Re: Will history remember the MAX as a mistake?

Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:30 pm

sgrow787 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I don't blame Boeing's executives for going ahead with MAX, the strategy was sound. The real issue was engineering not correctly evaluating the implications of the no sim training requirement and pushing back appropriately. They fudged the process to come up with the desired answer rather than letting the process tell them what the right answer was.

But there's not enough information to exonerate Boeing at this time. The more realistic scenario is some aeronautical and systems engineers got shot down in a design review meeting about the risks associated with the Max proposal - a process that would have taken 3 months or longer - before any work was started. And some executive just couldn't take the honesty they were getting. That's the likely scenario.

That is also an unproved theory, just like mine. The thing we have is the message dump where Boeing engineers took pains to polish their argument that MCAS on 737 was just like MCAS on KC-46 and thus did not need to be treated as an all new feature, thus bypassing a lot of analysis and test requirements that might have shown them how big a FUBAR the 737 MCAS was, and then the back slapping that went on once their jedi mind trick worked. IMO the atmosphere it conveys is not one of engineers suffering from management coercion, it was one of engineers who were fully in on the plan.

I'll also point out that many sources point out that Boeing engineering didn't learn of the issues that led to MCAS till the year following MAX being offered for sale. This IMO negates the argument that Boeing management put MAX on the market knowing there were big risks being taken.

I have written a few times now how it's frustrating that plausible deniability is still holding with Calhoun pointing at Forkner and the one engineer who believed too much in the three second rule. It's IMO difficult to think two individuals alone drove the fate of the program. Yet the Forkner angle is a slam dunk for investigators so that's the one being followed. Hopefully someone decides their best course of action is to shed light on the situation in exchange for a plea bargain.

XRAYretired wrote:
Et tu Brutus. WSJ- FAA Grand Jury witnesses put the knife into scape goat Forkner. Could be used as an 'in' for wider action against Boeing.

No pay wall version:
https://www.marketscreener.com/BOEING-C ... -30156295/

Ray

Now we know who the 'dogs watching TV' are!

It's good news that the DoJ is probing. Hopefully they are not just exploring the training angle, but also how the engineers convinced themselves that MCAS was just the same on 737 as KC-46 whilst the 737 only had one active sensor, and that the three second rule would cover all sins.

It's interesting to read that Boeing is paying for Forkner's lawyers. I was wondering how he could afford such high priced talent on a WN salary. Of course, these lawyers are still giving impartial advise despite the fact that they are being paid by Boeing, because lawyers are conscientious and take their oaths seriously.

It does seem like Forkner is in great jeopardy, and Gustavsson is next to be put into the hot seat. I suppose (hope) the idea will be to offer a plea deal to get them to flip on higher ups. And in turn Boeing is in great jeopardy, it seems the misleading communications with FAA could lead to criminal charges.

The article is a good read, it's the first big insight we've had to what is going on in the grand jury. As above, IMO it's a shame that the focus appears to only be on the training aspects.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:44 pm

oschkosch wrote:
Revelation wrote:
majano wrote:
Do people actually believe this narrative? That it will take five days to relay the wires and return to service will not be impacted? The northern hemisphere summer is only a few weeks away...

Why not? It's not like they have to re-route every wire, it's that they have to separate some wires related to the stab trim control. There's no reason why they can't start once the mod is approved and they have a lot of workers idled right now. New builds will come through with the mod in place and those will go to customers first.

yeah, it will be a piece of cake. And cost literally nothing.

Which is why Boeing tried to avert it.

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk

Let's see: I quote Boeing as saying it will take one week per airplane, you then transcribe that as 'piece of cake' and 'cost literally nothing' then use that as the basis of your reply? Schopenhauer would be proud. A week of work per airplane is far from nothing (I can say so because I have paid for such in the past) and of course Boeing would want to avoid it if it feels the tens of millions of hours of NG air time show it's not needed and working within the bundles may cause new problems to arise, yet rules are rules and FAA is getting its due.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Scotron12
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Re: Will history remember the MAX as a mistake?

Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:56 pm

Revelation wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
Revelation wrote:








The article is a good read, it's the first big insight we've had to what is going on in the grand jury. As above, IMO it's a shame that the focus appears to only be on the training aspects.


Maybe the opening is the training aspect, but not the whole focus. Interesting, those are some pretty high powered criminal defense attorneys Boeing are paying for. They were the defense attorneys for Enron!
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:26 pm

Revelation wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
"]

yeah, it will be a piece of cake. And cost literally nothing.

Which is why Boeing tried to avert it.

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk

Let's see: I quote Boeing as saying it will take one week per airplane, you then transcribe that as 'piece of cake' and 'cost literally nothing' then use that as the basis of your reply? Schopenhauer would be proud. A week of work per airplane is far from nothing (I can say so because I have paid for such in the past) and of course Boeing would want to avoid it if it feels the tens of millions of hours of NG air time show it's not needed and working within the bundles may cause new problems to arise, yet rules are rules and FAA is getting its due.


Sorry Rev! You did make it sound easy peasy, no offence meant of course! Any cost estimates from your side per plane?

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:06 pm

oschkosch wrote:
Revelation wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
"]

yeah, it will be a piece of cake. And cost literally nothing.

Which is why Boeing tried to avert it.

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk

Let's see: I quote Boeing as saying it will take one week per airplane, you then transcribe that as 'piece of cake' and 'cost literally nothing' then use that as the basis of your reply? Schopenhauer would be proud. A week of work per airplane is far from nothing (I can say so because I have paid for such in the past) and of course Boeing would want to avoid it if it feels the tens of millions of hours of NG air time show it's not needed and working within the bundles may cause new problems to arise, yet rules are rules and FAA is getting its due.


Sorry Rev! You did make it sound easy peasy, no offence meant of course! Any cost estimates from your side per plane?

Apology accepted. Seattle Times had a story about the wiring, but have been too busy to catch up. Maybe they have something to offer?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
sgrow787
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Re: Will history remember the MAX as a mistake?

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
But there's not enough information to exonerate Boeing at this time. The more realistic scenario is some aeronautical and systems engineers got shot down in a design review meeting about the risks associated with the Max proposal - a process that would have taken 3 months or longer - before any work was started. And some executive just couldn't take the honesty they were getting. That's the likely scenario.

That is also an unproved theory, just like mine. The thing we have is the message dump where Boeing engineers took pains to polish their argument that MCAS on 737 was just like MCAS on KC-46 and thus did not need to be treated as an all new feature, thus bypassing a lot of analysis and test requirements that might have shown them how big a FUBAR the 737 MCAS was, and then the back slapping that went on once their jedi mind trick worked.


I recall downloading that message dump a couple of months ago - 177 page OCRed PDF available in early to mid Jan 2020. Do I need to search the dump, or do you have the page #, for this assertion?

EDIT: I searched for '46', 'KC46', 'KC-46' and '767' and no hits w.r.t. your claim.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:47 pm

The OCRed PDF of all the emails can be found here:

https://archive.org/details/boeingemail ... 0/mode/2up

The Gizmodo article on Jan 10, 2020, referencing the PDF:

https://gizmodo.com/boeing-emails-revea ... 1840922394

EDIT: A search for 'MCAS' resulted in hits on only 1 page out of 177 pages:

07-JUN-2013 ANALYSIS
6/7/13 Meeting Minutes:
1) GTTA left the name as MCAS but treated as analogous function as a speed trim type function.
2) If we emphasize MCAS is a new function there may be a greater certification and training impact.
3) Treat as an addition to Speed Trim .
4) Externaly we would communicate it is an addition to Speed Trim.
5) Internaly continue using the acronym MCAS (within variable names etc).
6) Work with AR on certification perspective to ensure this strategy is acceptable.
7) Make sure EASA Fam Tech presentation is consistent with intent that MCAS is an addition to Speed Trim.
07-JUN-2013 PROP_RES
07-JUN-2013 12:18:39
After speaking with the Autoflight AR, concurrence was provided that we can
continue to use the MCAS nomenclature internaly (variable names, etc) while still considering MCAS to be an addition to the Speed Trim function. This wil alow us to maintain the MCAS nomenclatue while not driving additional work due to training impacts and maintenance manual expansions.


These emails are almost 2 years after the Max program was formally started and funded, so definitely after any design proposal review:

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2011-08-30 ... aft-Family
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:12 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
TC also missed the opportunity to get MAX grounded post Lion Air:
'...…Transport Canada in November 2018 asked Boeing....."Transport Canada requests further details to understand whether the potential exists for a single failure . . . to cause an inadvertent nose down pitch command from the stall identification system, which is considered to be catastrophic," according to the Nov, 2018 document.....'

Poor show. TC are culpable.


Why is TC culpable?
(a) No accidents happened on Canadian soil or airspace, and no Canadian airlines were involved in any accidents around the world while the 737 Max was in service.
(b) They asked Boeing post Lion Air (ie the earliest opportunity from the time they were aware of a problem) about the safety aspect of a single point of failure. I can only assume what Boeing's response was.
(c) TC test pilots asking for "more information about the plane's automated anti-stall system" doesn't necessarily suggest they knew or could know the potential for a single point of failure. In fact, it's safe to say that, if the FAA wasn't able to figure the single point of failure out during initial certification, then a foreign regulatory body wouldn't either.

If you're suggesting that TC wasn't supposed to accept the FAA certification on the merits, and instead perform their own, that world didn't exist pre-Lion Air.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:56 pm

sgrow787 wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
TC also missed the opportunity to get MAX grounded post Lion Air:
'...…Transport Canada in November 2018 asked Boeing....."Transport Canada requests further details to understand whether the potential exists for a single failure . . . to cause an inadvertent nose down pitch command from the stall identification system, which is considered to be catastrophic," according to the Nov, 2018 document.....'

Poor show. TC are culpable.


Why is TC culpable?
(a) No accidents happened on Canadian soil or airspace, and no Canadian airlines were involved in any accidents around the world while the 737 Max was in service.
(b) They asked Boeing post Lion Air (ie the earliest opportunity from the time they were aware of a problem) about the safety aspect of a single point of failure. I can only assume what Boeing's response was.
(c) TC test pilots asking for "more information about the plane's automated anti-stall system" doesn't necessarily suggest they knew or could know the potential for a single point of failure. In fact, it's safe to say that, if the FAA wasn't able to figure the single point of failure out during initial certification, then a foreign regulatory body wouldn't either.

If you're suggesting that TC wasn't supposed to accept the FAA certification on the merits, and instead perform their own, that world didn't exist pre-Lion Air.

a) Totally irrelevant.
b) TC knew and did not act, FAA knew and did not act, Boeing knew and did not act = Culpable all.
c) The question was raised, TC did not get an answer and certified with open questions under Boeing insistence. Poor show. Opportunity to prevent EIS with MCAS V 1.0 was missed. As far as we know, the question was still open when Lion Air went down. = Culpable.

As Doherty:
'...Mr. Doherty said the test pilots were correct to flag their concerns, but Transport Canada failed to follow through on getting answers about the automated software, which could have saved lives. “It took one person to say, ‘Wait a second, we’re not getting the answers to the questions that we had,’ ” ...'

As Garneau:
'...Transport Canada has learned that it needs to “be a little more skeptical in the future.
“I think that we have all learned in the last year some very important lessons,“...'

TC failed to determine through review and scrutiny that the FAA decision had any merit. That is what they are required to do, not rubber stamp.

Ray
 
jamincan
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:47 pm

Transport Canada didn't have the authority to ground Ethiopian aircraft and therefore can't be culpable.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:10 am

jamincan wrote:
Transport Canada didn't have the authority to ground Ethiopian aircraft and therefore can't be culpable.

Yes they can ground Canadian registered aircraft and restrict access to their regulated airspace, and did post ET302. They can also dissent from the Boeing/FAA status quo. they did not act.

All Civil Aviation Authorities are independent and act under there own regional legislated authority.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:36 am

XRAYretired wrote:
jamincan wrote:
Transport Canada didn't have the authority to ground Ethiopian aircraft and therefore can't be culpable.

Yes they can ground Canadian registered aircraft and restrict access to their regulated airspace, and did post ET302. They can also dissent from the Boeing/FAA status quo. they did not act.

All Civil Aviation Authorities are independent and act under there own regional legislated authority.


Well that's a leap. You're assuming that if Transport Canada grounded the Max in their airspace, that the rest of the world would have followed course, including Ethiopia, and they would have done it regardless of the FAA (FAA would have surely ignored TC up and until ET302 crash happened**). FAA was the regulatory body where the manufacturer of the crash plane resides. They and Boeing are culpable, not TC.

**The FAA ignored the groundings of the Max by the entire world, AFTER the ET302 crash, until their "data driven" approach said otherwise.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:54 am

sgrow787 wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
jamincan wrote:
Transport Canada didn't have the authority to ground Ethiopian aircraft and therefore can't be culpable.

Yes they can ground Canadian registered aircraft and restrict access to their regulated airspace, and did post ET302. They can also dissent from the Boeing/FAA status quo. they did not act.

All Civil Aviation Authorities are independent and act under there own regional legislated authority.


Well that's a leap. You're assuming that if Transport Canada grounded the Max in their airspace, that the rest of the world would have followed course, including Ethiopia, and they would have done it regardless of the FAA (FAA would have surely ignored TC up and until ET302 crash happened**). FAA was the regulatory body where the manufacturer of the crash plane resides. They and Boeing are culpable, not TC.

**The FAA ignored the groundings of the Max by the entire world, AFTER the ET302 crash, until their "data driven" approach said otherwise.

The data was available post Lion Air, they did not act. They did not follow through on concerns raised during certification. The Boeing FAA hold out post ET302 lasted a full 3 days. If FAA/Boeing were data driven, grounding would have occurred post Lion Air.

Nuremberg defences do not hold up. We didn't act because we thought FAA/Boeing would ignore us is not a defence.
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:04 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
[b) TC knew and did not act, FAA knew and did not act, Boeing knew and did not act
Ray


Honest questions:
* What did TC know?
* What questions did TC ask?
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XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:28 pm

PW100 wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
[b) TC knew and did not act, FAA knew and did not act, Boeing knew and did not act
Ray


Honest questions:
* What did TC know?
* What questions did TC ask?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/ ... 37-max-as/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/boeing ... g-1.549230

Rather than repeat previous posts.

Ray
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:46 pm

XRAYretired wrote:


Your second link goes to something about a baseball stadium?

Is this article you were meant to link? https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/boeing ... -1.5492306
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:53 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:


Your second link goes to something about a baseball stadium?

Is this article you were meant to link? https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/boeing ... -1.5492306

Clever lad.

Ray
 
jamincan
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:04 pm

If someone else fails to check their blindspot and hits another car when they change lanes, I'm not culpable for the first person hitting that car if I also didn't check my blindspot while changing lanes. I *should* have checked my blindspot, but I'm not culpable for the outcome of someone else failing to do the same.

Similarly, TC cannot be culpable for the Ethiopian crash since their action or lack thereof could not reasonably have prevented it. You could certainly make the argument that they should have grounded the Max in Canada depending on what information they knew after Lion Air, and if an accident had occurred in Canada, they would share in some of the blame, but that's not what happened and therefore they don't.
 
majano
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:20 pm

jamincan wrote:
If someone else fails to check their blindspot and hits another car when they change lanes, I'm not culpable for the first person hitting that car if I also didn't check my blindspot while changing lanes. I *should* have checked my blindspot, but I'm not culpable for the outcome of someone else failing to do the same.

This analogy is bamboozling.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:03 pm

jamincan wrote:
If someone else fails to check their blindspot and hits another car when they change lanes, I'm not culpable for the first person hitting that car if I also didn't check my blindspot while changing lanes. I *should* have checked my blindspot, but I'm not culpable for the outcome of someone else failing to do the same.

Similarly, TC cannot be culpable for the Ethiopian crash since their action or lack thereof could not reasonably have prevented it. You could certainly make the argument that they should have grounded the Max in Canada depending on what information they knew after Lion Air, and if an accident had occurred in Canada, they would share in some of the blame, but that's not what happened and therefore they don't.

But there is / was a gentleman's agreement among airworthiness authorities of mandatory reporting, so in the olden days, if TC became aware of a defect / issue, they would advise the FAA and OEM, who would be very grateful, and act on it with alacrity. Now it seems such feedback would be neither gratefully or graciously received, especially by the OEM. And until recently, the OEM was the de facto FAA too.
 
Buffalomatt1027
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:21 pm

This is going to sound terrible ..... but the corona virus bought Boeing some time to get the MAX issues figured out. Airlines / aviation industry / world will take a LONGGGGG time to get back to "normal"
 
ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:48 pm

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
This is going to sound terrible ..... but the corona virus bought Boeing some time to get the MAX issues figured out. Airlines / aviation industry / world will take a LONGGGGG time to get back to "normal"


Not of the airlines aren't around any longer to take them!
 
NonTechAvLover
Posts: 81
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:09 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:58 am

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
This is going to sound terrible ..... but the corona virus bought Boeing some time to get the MAX issues figured out. Airlines / aviation industry / world will take a LONGGGGG time to get back to "normal"


Don’t you think Boeing will have some problems of its own during the same period?
 
sgrow787
Posts: 450
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:17 am

NonTechAvLover wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
This is going to sound terrible ..... but the corona virus bought Boeing some time to get the MAX issues figured out. Airlines / aviation industry / world will take a LONGGGGG time to get back to "normal"


Don’t you think Boeing will have some problems of its own during the same period?


I think what we mean is market share. If the airline industry and commercial aviation is in a down period, that gives Boeing time to fix the Max and be ready to deliver when things are brought back online. If everyone is having problems at the same time, no one can swoop in and grab the aviation market. Except maybe China, whose already gotten the coronavirus under control at around 81K cases.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
pune
Posts: 392
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:18 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:57 am

XRAYretired wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
House investigation officially declare what was pretty much already known about the MAX design. Given the state of the airline industry right now, I think most airlines could care less if it flies again this year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/house-i ... rency.html

Press release and report can be seen here. (hopefully mods will not delete this reference post as they did Calhoun NYT interview).
https://transportation.house.gov/news/p ... -findings-
https://transportation.house.gov/imo/me ... 202020.pdf

House summary:
'....The Committee’s investigation, as detailed in the preliminary findings, focuses on five main areas:
Production pressures on Boeing employees that jeopardized aviation safety;
Boeing’s faulty assumptions about critical technologies, most notably regarding the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, or MCAS;
Boeing’s concealment of crucial information from the FAA, its customers, and pilots;
Inherent conflicts of interest among authorized representatives, or ARs, who are Boeing employees authorized to perform certification work on behalf of the FAA; and
Boeing’s influence over the FAA’s oversight that resulted in FAA management rejecting safety concerns raised by the agency’s own technical experts at the behest of Boeing......'

Ray


Could you reshare the link because I cannot find it anymore :(

NVM, got it from https://transportation.house.gov/news/p ... -findings-
 
XRAYretired
Posts: 870
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:21 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:04 am

pune wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
House investigation officially declare what was pretty much already known about the MAX design. Given the state of the airline industry right now, I think most airlines could care less if it flies again this year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/house-i ... rency.html

Press release and report can be seen here. (hopefully mods will not delete this reference post as they did Calhoun NYT interview).
https://transportation.house.gov/news/p ... -findings-
https://transportation.house.gov/imo/me ... 202020.pdf

House summary:
'....The Committee’s investigation, as detailed in the preliminary findings, focuses on five main areas:
Production pressures on Boeing employees that jeopardized aviation safety;
Boeing’s faulty assumptions about critical technologies, most notably regarding the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, or MCAS;
Boeing’s concealment of crucial information from the FAA, its customers, and pilots;
Inherent conflicts of interest among authorized representatives, or ARs, who are Boeing employees authorized to perform certification work on behalf of the FAA; and
Boeing’s influence over the FAA’s oversight that resulted in FAA management rejecting safety concerns raised by the agency’s own technical experts at the behest of Boeing......'

Ray


Could you reshare the link because I cannot find it anymore :(

https://transportation.house.gov/news/p ... -findings-
https://transportation.house.gov/imo/me ... 202020.pdf

Its against the rules to post without a comment so the post might disappear.

Ray
 
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PW100
Posts: 4123
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:45 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
PW100 wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
[b) TC knew and did not act, FAA knew and did not act, Boeing knew and did not act
Ray

Honest questions:
* What did TC know?
* What questions did TC ask?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/ ... 37-max-as/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/boeing ... g-1.549230

Rather than repeat previous posts.
Ray


I did read those links previously.
The problem is, that those links don't provide answers to my questions. They are full of vague things like:

. . . Transport Canada test pilots raised questions about the Boeing 737 Max as far back as 2016 . . .
. . . when TC pilots flew the 737 Max in 2016, they found the plane’s automated anti-stall system unusual and raised questions about how it operated . . .


Full of vague things, but don't go into details.
Interestingly, the links do refer to " . . . documents made public Thursday at federal hearings probing Canada’s endorsement of the deadly plane . . . "

I have not seen those documents. Since you were so verbal and harsh, I assumed that you had studied subject documents and found the significance in relation to MCAS and current grounding.

It appears I assumed wrongly.
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
XRAYretired
Posts: 870
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:21 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:09 pm

PW100 wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
PW100 wrote:
Honest questions:
* What did TC know?
* What questions did TC ask?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/ ... 37-max-as/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/boeing ... g-1.549230

Rather than repeat previous posts.
Ray


I did read those links previously.
The problem is, that those links don't provide answers to my questions. They are full of vague things like:

. . . Transport Canada test pilots raised questions about the Boeing 737 Max as far back as 2016 . . .
. . . when TC pilots flew the 737 Max in 2016, they found the plane’s automated anti-stall system unusual and raised questions about how it operated . . .


Full of vague things, but don't go into details.
Interestingly, the links do refer to " . . . documents made public Thursday at federal hearings probing Canada’s endorsement of the deadly plane . . . "

I have not seen those documents. Since you were so verbal and harsh, I assumed that you had studied subject documents and found the significance in relation to MCAS and current grounding.

It appears I assumed wrongly.

Didn't have your rose coloured glasses on.

'....test pilots posed questions about the 737 Max in 2016,...The documents show Transport Canada's test pilots asked for more information about the plane's automated anti-stall system before the Maxes were certified, but didn't get an explanation in time....Boeing asked Canada to approve the planes...."Please note that in order to meet its delivery commitments to the Canadian operators, Boeing has requested Transport Canada to issue its 737-MAX ATC [airworthiness certificate] in June 2017," the document from 2017 states......'

'..Transport Canada began asking for clarifications on how the new system worked, and why the 737 Max didn’t require a new operating certificate because it flew differently than previous models...'

Not vague questions at all. They were not answered, They were not followed up. They remained open after certification.

'..."Transport Canada requests further details to understand whether the potential exists for a single failure . . . to cause an inadvertent nose down pitch command from the stall identification system, which is considered to be catastrophic," ...'

They knew they did not act.

These people are employed for their knowledge and capability, they know exactly the reason for their questions, they are not Joes off the street plugged into a.net. as you seem to want them to be.

Anyway, if you just wanted to know if I had turned up the referenced documents, why not just ask rather than playing games.
 
beechnut
Posts: 927
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 12:27 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:31 pm

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
This is going to sound terrible ..... but the corona virus bought Boeing some time to get the MAX issues figured out. Airlines / aviation industry / world will take a LONGGGGG time to get back to "normal"


Beware the law of unintended consequences, one of which might go like this: weaker/smaller airlines go under, and their MAX orders die with them. At some point the program loses the critical mass necessary to make it viable, and Boeing, rather than fixing the MAX, determines it would make more financial sense to bail and pay out any subsequent penalties.

Or, with those orders melting away, the stock price does the same, the cash flow dries up, and Boeing is forced to file Chapter 11, or Boeing the corporation decides to bail from commercial aviation as did Lockheed.

If the aviation industry takes a massive hit, and it will, Boeing will be just as badly affected, and it is already seriously weakened by the MAX fiasco. This crisis could very well finish it off, at least the commercial airplane division, at worst. At best it may only kill off the MAX.

Honestly I can't see any silver lining in the COVID-19 crisis, for the airlines and for the manufacturers. Boeing is already in dire shape because of the MAX. Maybe there is one potential benefit for MAX "operators", they're already removed from their active fleets.

Beech
 
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par13del
Posts: 10337
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:10 pm

beechnut wrote:
Honestly I can't see any silver lining in the COVID-19 crisis, for the airlines and for the manufacturers. Boeing is already in dire shape because of the MAX. Maybe there is one potential benefit for MAX "operators", they're already removed from their active fleets.

Beech

The silver lining would have been the time to fix the a/c while demand is now lower, however, the regulators driving the re-certification process are working to make sure the a/c is safe to fly and they have no timeline for RTS.
So far, nothing from MCAS 2.0, the fix for the nacelles, new wire fixes, nothing has been approved for work, it appears to e an all or nothing process.
Training seems to be back in Boeing's hands, I hope it is a collaborative effort versus Boeing do, we inspect pass or fail.
 
sgrow787
Posts: 450
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:17 am

beechnut wrote:
If the aviation industry takes a massive hit, and it will, Boeing will be just as badly affected, and it is already seriously weakened by the MAX fiasco. This crisis could very well finish it off, at least the commercial airplane division, at worst. At best it may only kill off the MAX.


I'm a big fan of the fast food burger chain. Perhaps the Max frames, sitting in the desert right now, can be relocated to various destinations in the world and become the next big burger outfit. Especially during the coronavirus crisis, with people worried about fresh clean air. Install ultra allergen MERV 13 filters. Any ideas on what should be on the menu (besides the Max Burger with MCAS-My-Ass fries)?
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
RJBingham
Posts: 7
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 9:45 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:24 am

sgrow787 wrote:
beechnut wrote:
If the aviation industry takes a massive hit, and it will, Boeing will be just as badly affected, and it is already seriously weakened by the MAX fiasco. This crisis could very well finish it off, at least the commercial airplane division, at worst. At best it may only kill off the MAX.


I'm a big fan of the fast food burger chain. Perhaps the Max frames, sitting in the desert right now, can be relocated to various destinations in the world and become the next big burger outfit. Especially during the coronavirus crisis, with people worried about fresh clean air. Install ultra allergen MERV 13 filters. Any ideas on what should be on the menu (besides the Max Burger with MCAS-My-Ass fries)?

Anything with LEMON in it.
 
User avatar
Chipmunk1973
Posts: 267
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:23 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:47 am

sgrow787 wrote:
beechnut wrote:
If the aviation industry takes a massive hit, and it will, Boeing will be just as badly affected, and it is already seriously weakened by the MAX fiasco. This crisis could very well finish it off, at least the commercial airplane division, at worst. At best it may only kill off the MAX.


I'm a big fan of the fast food burger chain. Perhaps the Max frames, sitting in the desert right now, can be relocated to various destinations in the world and become the next big burger outfit. Especially during the coronavirus crisis, with people worried about fresh clean air. Install ultra allergen MERV 13 filters. Any ideas on what should be on the menu (besides the Max Burger with MCAS-My-Ass fries)?


Seven-Three-Heaven
Angus Beef Hamburger with cheese

The MAX
Burger with everything

The ER
Burger with double meat, double cheese

Max 8
8” Hot Dog

Ecoliner
Salad

NG
Singapore Noodle salad

737 Classic
A BLT sandwich

Dreamlifter
Fruit based energy drink

747 Combi
Tex-Mex: Steak and Prawns (Shrimp)

Starter Cart
Herb Bread or Brushetta

Rgds,
C1973
Cheers,
C1973


B707, B717, B727, B734, B737, B738, B743, B77W, A300, A320, A332, A333, A339, A388, BAe146, Cessna 206.
 
sgrow787
Posts: 450
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:05 pm

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
beechnut wrote:
If the aviation industry takes a massive hit, and it will, Boeing will be just as badly affected, and it is already seriously weakened by the MAX fiasco. This crisis could very well finish it off, at least the commercial airplane division, at worst. At best it may only kill off the MAX.


I'm a big fan of the fast food burger chain. Perhaps the Max frames, sitting in the desert right now, can be relocated to various destinations in the world and become the next big burger outfit. Especially during the coronavirus crisis, with people worried about fresh clean air. Install ultra allergen MERV 13 filters. Any ideas on what should be on the menu (besides the Max Burger with MCAS-My-Ass fries)?


Seven-Three-Heaven
Angus Beef Hamburger with cheese

The MAX
Burger with everything

The ER
Burger with double meat, double cheese

Max 8
8” Hot Dog

Ecoliner
Salad

NG
Singapore Noodle salad

737 Classic
A BLT sandwich

Dreamlifter
Fruit based energy drink

747 Combi
Tex-Mex: Steak and Prawns (Shrimp)

Starter Cart
Herb Bread or Brushetta

Rgds,
C1973


FAA-T Burger
Certified Vegetarian Beef

Disagree Light Beer
4.5% Alcohol by Volume

Stab Trim Runaway
Sundae with a stab of chocolate, trimmed with nuts
Topped with caramel runaway

Neo Threat
High Protein Shake for Super Efficiency

Redundant Option
Buy 1 Get 1
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
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enzo011
Posts: 1901
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:29 pm

morrisond wrote:
And yet from a Transport Canada employee there was an email speculating that the MAX could return to service by essentially just turning MCAS off.

Maybe they thought the Procedure that Boeing published after Lionair was sufficient.



Wasn't that email because Boeing couldn't figure out how to fix MCAS and a solution offered in exasperation was to just turn it off? Instead of the new problems that seem to have occurred with the MCAS fix (bit flip) with the fixes proposed.

So your classification of TA thinking all is sufficient after Lion Air is little dishonest.
 
XRAYretired
Posts: 870
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:21 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:09 pm

enzo011 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
And yet from a Transport Canada employee there was an email speculating that the MAX could return to service by essentially just turning MCAS off.

Maybe they thought the Procedure that Boeing published after Lionair was sufficient.



Wasn't that email because Boeing couldn't figure out how to fix MCAS and a solution offered in exasperation was to just turn it off? Instead of the new problems that seem to have occurred with the MCAS fix (bit flip) with the fixes proposed.

So your classification of TA thinking all is sufficient after Lion Air is little dishonest.

Mr Marco's suggestion was to replace MCAS with another modification (unspecified) to FCC that would achieve the same objective (nothing to do with Bitflip BTW). MAX is non-compliant without some sort of augmentation and can not be certified in that condition.

The original poster knows this.

Ray
 
oschkosch
Posts: 588
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:08 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
And yet from a Transport Canada employee there was an email speculating that the MAX could return to service by essentially just turning MCAS off.

Maybe they thought the Procedure that Boeing published after Lionair was sufficient.



Wasn't that email because Boeing couldn't figure out how to fix MCAS and a solution offered in exasperation was to just turn it off? Instead of the new problems that seem to have occurred with the MCAS fix (bit flip) with the fixes proposed.

So your classification of TA thinking all is sufficient after Lion Air is little dishonest.

Mr Marco's suggestion was to replace MCAS with another modification (unspecified) to FCC that would achieve the same objective (nothing to do with Bitflip BTW). MAX is non-compliant without some sort of augmentation and can not be certified in that condition.

The original poster knows this.

Ray
well observed Ray!

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:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
744SPX
Posts: 242
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:44 pm

Boeing should be working on NSA with total abandon right now. Boeing needs to drop the MAX before they are forced to (inevitable deluge of order cancellations), suck it up, admit they were wrong and offer a new aircraft that isn't value engineered. That's the only way they will get my trust back. They have the ability.

Oh, and recycle all that MAX aluminum.
 
TaromA380
Posts: 363
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:35 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:02 am

They lost one whole year (~1/5 the timescale of a new program), built another 400 frames (!), bought and stockpiled many other additional parts frames, spent big money with re-certification tries, grounding maintenance and what not.

Sure, I already know who will immediately ask the price of a time machine, but I can see similarity in Boeing's reality assessment before the grounding as well as post-grounding. All this under the leadership of a rare kind of CEO, in theory the providential expert in in-house engineering troubles.

Today covid19 crisis would have made easier going through the required infernal years until the new airliner enters service. However, luck is helping only those who are ready.

When I first saw how David is mopping the floor with his predecessor, in interviews, I thought Wow that’s harsh and extremely unpolite. But we are only at the beginning of realizing in what whole that man managed to sink the company. An Airbus agent undercover couldn’t have done better.
 
planecane
Posts: 1570
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:26 am

beechnut wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
This is going to sound terrible ..... but the corona virus bought Boeing some time to get the MAX issues figured out. Airlines / aviation industry / world will take a LONGGGGG time to get back to "normal"


Beware the law of unintended consequences, one of which might go like this: weaker/smaller airlines go under, and their MAX orders die with them. At some point the program loses the critical mass necessary to make it viable, and Boeing, rather than fixing the MAX, determines it would make more financial sense to bail and pay out any subsequent penalties.

Or, with those orders melting away, the stock price does the same, the cash flow dries up, and Boeing is forced to file Chapter 11, or Boeing the corporation decides to bail from commercial aviation as did Lockheed.

If the aviation industry takes a massive hit, and it will, Boeing will be just as badly affected, and it is already seriously weakened by the MAX fiasco. This crisis could very well finish it off, at least the commercial airplane division, at worst. At best it may only kill off the MAX.

Honestly I can't see any silver lining in the COVID-19 crisis, for the airlines and for the manufacturers. Boeing is already in dire shape because of the MAX. Maybe there is one potential benefit for MAX "operators", they're already removed from their active fleets.

Beech


More likely the governments around the world print money to bail out the airlines and other industries. If the whole world does it then it hopefully won't cause too much inflation.
 
StTim
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 7:39 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:47 pm

744SPX wrote:
Boeing should be working on NSA with total abandon right now. Boeing needs to drop the MAX before they are forced to (inevitable deluge of order cancellations), suck it up, admit they were wrong and offer a new aircraft that isn't value engineered. That's the only way they will get my trust back. They have the ability.

Oh, and recycle all that MAX aluminum.


Just exactly how would they fund this? Developing a new plane under government support. Hmmm - lets see how the WTO rule on that one.
 
uta999
Posts: 917
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:10 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:33 pm

Now would be a good time for Boeing to announce the cancellation of the entire MAX program. It would be completely lost and ignored by the mainstream media because of other news.

Airlines would be grateful not to have to take their rather optimistic orders, and Boeing won’t make a loss on building more.

They could actually come out of this stronger, with a new replacement arriving at about the time, when this industry starts returning to normal in about 3-4 years time.

The 777X program should also be delayed until then as well, to facilitate a newer generation engine.
Your computer just got better
 
User avatar
flyingphil
Posts: 312
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 2:56 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:03 am

So Boeing wanting the Government (tax payers) to bail out it's supply chain.. meanwhile it's stocks plummet..

"Boeing shares fell a breathtaking 24% on Monday. Investors are abandoning air-travel stocks as the fallout from the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic grows. The stock is now pricing “aero-mageddon.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing ... 1584392984
(Note the picture they have chosen.. duh)

Where does it leave the 737MAX?
A few months back cancelling the whole thing seemed far fetched .. now?
Things have changed drastically .. progress to recertification is painfully slow, demand for air travel has fallen off a cliff.. may not recover for a year or two, no new orders
Seems to be a lack of leadership
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