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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:25 am

uta999 wrote:
The 777X program should also be delayed until then as well, to facilitate a newer generation engine.

Which deployed engine is more efficient than the what is presently on the 777X, knowing of course that the a/c is not yet in service.
 
gregpodpl
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:21 am

flyingphil wrote:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing-stock-panic-selling-coronavirus-fallout-capacity-airbus-737-max-51584392984
(Note the picture they have chosen.. duh)

It shows in Getty under "Boeing" - https://www.gettyimages.ca/detail/news- ... to/2188402
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:51 am

gregpodpl wrote:
flyingphil wrote:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing-stock-panic-selling-coronavirus-fallout-capacity-airbus-737-max-51584392984
(Note the picture they have chosen.. duh)

It shows in Getty under "Boeing" - https://www.gettyimages.ca/detail/news- ... to/2188402


Thanks.. I think the screeners here would have rejected it ;)

Maybe one of my pics would have been more appropriate ..






 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:53 am

uta999 wrote:
Now would be a good time for Boeing to announce the cancellation of the entire MAX program. It would be completely lost and ignored by the mainstream media because of other news.

Airlines would be grateful not to have to take their rather optimistic orders, and Boeing won’t make a loss on building more.

They could actually come out of this stronger, with a new replacement arriving at about the time, when this industry starts returning to normal in about 3-4 years time.

The 777X program should also be delayed until then as well, to facilitate a newer generation engine.



Yes, I agree! :checkmark: :white: :yes:
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
Junglejames
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:34 am

oschkosch wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Now would be a good time for Boeing to announce the cancellation of the entire MAX program. It would be completely lost and ignored by the mainstream media because of other news.

Airlines would be grateful not to have to take their rather optimistic orders, and Boeing won’t make a loss on building more.

They could actually come out of this stronger, with a new replacement arriving at about the time, when this industry starts returning to normal in about 3-4 years time.

The 777X program should also be delayed until then as well, to facilitate a newer generation engine.



Yes, I agree! :checkmark: :white: :yes:
It would be just as easy to go to Airbus and say:
'We are pulling out of plane building, hope you have extra capacity'.
As that isn't far off what you have planned.
Considering the poor state of Boeing's finances right now in its commercial arm, do you really think they can go another 5yrs plus where the only planes they sell are a few 787s?
The chances are, they won't sell many of them after this latest setback to the world's economy.

Oh, and you seem to imagine airlines will be happy? You don't for one minute imagine they will be clamouring up for extra compensation? That's on top of having to hand back all the deposits etc.



Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk
 
Elementalism
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:55 am

~5500 MAX frames on backorder. Worth right around 700 billion at list prices. And the suggestion is this is the right time to shutter the program. Good thing many of you are not on the board of Boeing. Talk about making a poor decision worse. And ramp up its replacement in 5 years without revenue from the return of the MAX? Yeah, sure thing. What could go wrong?
 
beechnut
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:54 pm

5500 on back-order? I'd like to see the number after cancellations, failed customers and deferrals due to the COVID-19 crisis come into play. I'll bet a beer that that number falls to half of that. Suddenly perhaps the program won't be so viable anymore.

Also two other factors: nobody pays list price, and what matters is how much profit they make off the program not sale price. Given the fiasco, probably not a whole lot of profit and perhaps sell each at a loss. Chapter 11 would at least allow them to escape their obligations, restructure, and maybe then revive the MAX program having written off all the liabilities for pennies on the dollar. And perhaps finally work on a modern replacement.

Beech
 
TaromA380
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:55 pm

Elementalism wrote:
~5500 MAX frames on backorder. Worth right around 700 billion at list prices. And the suggestion is this is the right time to shutter the program. Good thing many of you are not on the board of Boeing. Talk about making a poor decision worse. And ramp up its replacement in 5 years without revenue from the return of the MAX? Yeah, sure thing. What could go wrong?

There could have been only 4 years of waiting, 1 year already lost.

Next year you should count only 3 years for the new airliner to enter service, 2 years being lost. And so on.

Then, once the new program launches, a fraction of the surviving orders (after covid-19) should switch to the new program. Not everything is lost. However, until now Boeing seems to have failed on every bet they could ever take.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:12 pm

Elementalism wrote:
~5500 MAX frames on backorder. Worth right around 700 billion at list prices. And the suggestion is this is the right time to shutter the program. Good thing many of you are not on the board of Boeing. Talk about making a poor decision worse. And ramp up its replacement in 5 years without revenue from the return of the MAX? Yeah, sure thing. What could go wrong?



It is 4500 orders that still outstanding and they are worth zero right now because they are not being delivered to airlines. So they may be worth $560B at list prices on paper but paper doesn't pay bills unfortunately.
 
LJ
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:00 pm

uta999 wrote:
Now would be a good time for Boeing to announce the cancellation of the entire MAX program. It would be completely lost and ignored by the mainstream media because of other news.

Airlines would be grateful not to have to take their rather optimistic orders, and Boeing won’t make a loss on building more.

They could actually come out of this stronger, with a new replacement arriving at about the time, when this industry starts returning to normal in about 3-4 years time.

The 777X program should also be delayed until then as well, to facilitate a newer generation engine.


There is one problem. How is Boeing going to pay for the replacement of the MAX? The current crisis means that Boeing is stuck with the MAX. As such they cannot cancel it anymore. They need the cash and thus they need t find a way to get it into the air. Even worse, this crisis may just mean that the MAX will be around longer than maybe Boeing even wants it to be.

enzo011 wrote:
It is 4500 orders that still outstanding and they are worth zero right now because they are not being delivered to airlines. So they may be worth $560B at list prices on paper but paper doesn't pay bills unfortunately.


At least they have an opportunity of getting cash. Moreover, should they decide to cancel, it would mean they've to return some prepayments and most likely penalties towards its suppliers. This is also something some seem to forget. It's not just Boeing but also companies like Spirit who need the MAX in the air again.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:12 pm

LJ wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Now would be a good time for Boeing to announce the cancellation of the entire MAX program. It would be completely lost and ignored by the mainstream media because of other news.

Airlines would be grateful not to have to take their rather optimistic orders, and Boeing won’t make a loss on building more.

They could actually come out of this stronger, with a new replacement arriving at about the time, when this industry starts returning to normal in about 3-4 years time.

The 777X program should also be delayed until then as well, to facilitate a newer generation engine.


There is one problem. How is Boeing going to pay for the replacement of the MAX? The current crisis means that Boeing is stuck with the MAX. As such they cannot cancel it anymore. They need the cash and thus they need t find a way to get it into the air. Even worse, this crisis may just mean that the MAX will be around longer than maybe Boeing even wants it to be.

enzo011 wrote:
It is 4500 orders that still outstanding and they are worth zero right now because they are not being delivered to airlines. So they may be worth $560B at list prices on paper but paper doesn't pay bills unfortunately.


At least they have an opportunity of getting cash. Moreover, should they decide to cancel, it would mean they've to return some prepayments and most likely penalties towards its suppliers. This is also something some seem to forget. It's not just Boeing but also companies like Spirit who need the MAX in the air again.

SARS-CoV-2 positive, over 70 years old with underlying health conditions. Intensive care required urgently. Prognosis rather poor, but several organs could be harvested in case of fatal outcome.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:39 am

TaromA380 wrote:
They lost one whole year (~1/5 the timescale of a new program), built another 400 frames (!), bought and stockpiled many other additional parts frames, spent big money with re-certification tries, grounding maintenance and what not.

Sure, I already know who will immediately ask the price of a time machine, but I can see similarity in Boeing's reality assessment before the grounding as well as post-grounding. All this under the leadership of a rare kind of CEO, in theory the providential expert in in-house engineering troubles.

Today covid19 crisis would have made easier going through the required infernal years until the new airliner enters service. However, luck is helping only those who are ready.

When I first saw how David is mopping the floor with his predecessor, in interviews, I thought Wow that’s harsh and extremely unpolite. But we are only at the beginning of realizing in what whole that man managed to sink the company. An Airbus agent undercover couldn’t have done better.

uta999 wrote:
Now would be a good time for Boeing to announce the cancellation of the entire MAX program. It would be completely lost and ignored by the mainstream media because of other news.

Airlines would be grateful not to have to take their rather optimistic orders, and Boeing won’t make a loss on building more.

They could actually come out of this stronger, with a new replacement arriving at about the time, when this industry starts returning to normal in about 3-4 years time.

The 777X program should also be delayed until then as well, to facilitate a newer generation engine.

flyingphil wrote:
So Boeing wanting the Government (tax payers) to bail out it's supply chain.. meanwhile it's stocks plummet..

"Boeing shares fell a breathtaking 24% on Monday. Investors are abandoning air-travel stocks as the fallout from the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic grows. The stock is now pricing “aero-mageddon.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing ... 1584392984
(Note the picture they have chosen.. duh)

Where does it leave the 737MAX?
A few months back cancelling the whole thing seemed far fetched .. now?
Things have changed drastically .. progress to recertification is painfully slow, demand for air travel has fallen off a cliff.. may not recover for a year or two, no new orders
Seems to be a lack of leadership

These thoughts just aren't logical.

Yes MAX will have RTS and yes most of the airlines will recover and most of the MAXes on order will be taken.

The survivors will see the failures as growth opportunities.

Boeing saves very little by not trying to cash in on the frames built already and the orders that are already booked.

737 customers will rebound and will want the ~12% cost advantage of MAX and will not want to keep spending to keep old NGs running.

Having nothing to offer to the market for the 4-6 years it takes to develop a clean sheet that FAA will approve is a tremendous risk.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
TaromA380
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:16 pm

A clean sheet airliner would be free of Jurrassic legacies. Any design done right would have nothing to fear from any regulator.

Today's business case of Max is so different from what it was back when sold to airlines. Beside being late, it will require training and will have to cope with the public fear, at least for a while. It is not excluded that some other handicaps will be discovered.

We are seeing a developping agony and all the time lost since the Max's reality assessment would have been more useful for the clean sheet program.

It is weird to see that all Boeing's decisions regarding the Max, from the beginning until today, were all favorable to Airbus.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:55 pm

4-6 years is the time from launch to EiS for a new design (and that is a huge challenge), that does not mean they will be able to produce 40 planes a month and the end of the time frame. Until you could replace the volume we would be looking at 8-10 years and Boeing can not have no single aisle jet for such a long time. The MAX will fly again, it will perform as well as we know it does when it comes to economics and it will sell.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:05 pm

I also say it will fly again and it will keep an orderbook of around 5'000 aircraft, I doubt it will grow much above this. On the other hand, this will give Boeing time to get everything else sorted and come back from the current misery. An output of 400 Max a year is more than enough. This also reduces pressure to increase output like crazy and will keep quality up. That gives about 10-12 years of strong backlog without the pressure to sell more. Time enough to develop a new aircraft and to focus on other projects.

Now is the time to trim the company back to sustainable levels and away from share buybacks and the crazy focus on cash flow.
 
TaromA380
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:11 pm

If building the Max with the results we see today was a huge challange, then Boeing should try the alternative huge challange - a clean sheet design.

If they can't succeed that either, correctly and in decent timeframe, then perhaps this company has nothing to do in aviation industry ?

We can see here repeated declarations on how the Max will fly again and it will be fine.
I remember the same one year ago. Meanwhile we know that retraining would be mandatory (this alone says that it won't be fine as it loses versus competition) then no valid MCAS solution was submitted either.

How a defective product like the Max could be fine ?
It had an economic sense on the market back when no retraining was needed. Who will support the costs versus a competing airline using A32X ? Who will support the costs of not filling the Max like an A32X after RTS because it will take a while until the public forget to care about ?
 
beechnut
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:09 pm

I can't predict if the MAX will fly again or not. Some are confident it will. I am less confident, I think the chances of it flying again are getting lesser by the day. But I may be wrong.

Beech
 
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SamYeager2016
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:53 pm

seahawk wrote:
4-6 years is the time from launch to EiS for a new design (and that is a huge challenge), that does not mean they will be able to produce 40 planes a month and the end of the time frame. Until you could replace the volume we would be looking at 8-10 years and Boeing can not have no single aisle jet for such a long time. The MAX will fly again, it will perform as well as we know it does when it comes to economics and it will sell.

Assuming you're correct I suppose the question is when is the best time for Boeing to announce the development of a successor to the 737 which will allow them to have a newer design than Airbus? Perhaps a couple of years after resuming production?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:16 pm

SamYeager2016 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
4-6 years is the time from launch to EiS for a new design (and that is a huge challenge), that does not mean they will be able to produce 40 planes a month and the end of the time frame. Until you could replace the volume we would be looking at 8-10 years and Boeing can not have no single aisle jet for such a long time. The MAX will fly again, it will perform as well as we know it does when it comes to economics and it will sell.

Assuming you're correct I suppose the question is when is the best time for Boeing to announce the development of a successor to the 737 which will allow them to have a newer design than Airbus? Perhaps a couple of years after resuming production?


That is easy, when the next engine generation is ready. So EiS around 2032, means launch around 2026/27.
 
744SPX
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:29 pm

They don't have the luxury of waiting for a next gen engine, but they don't need one to produce a better and more efficient aircraft than the NEO. NSA needs to be launched in the next year or two. The Max is going to be a massive failure, and I for one do not see how the the majority on order will be taken. This stain on Boeing's legacy needs to be put out of its misery now. Boeing has to be made to pay for their stupidity and not rewarded for it by getting the Max bailed out.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:34 pm

744SPX wrote:
They don't have the luxury of waiting for a next gen engine, but they don't need one to produce a better and more efficient aircraft than the NEO. NSA needs to be launched in the next year or two. The Max is going to be a massive failure, and I for one do not see how the the majority on order will be taken. This stain on Boeing's legacy needs to be put out of its misery now. Boeing has to be made to pay for their stupidity and not rewarded for it by getting the Max bailed out.


When RTS is approved, airlines won't be able to just cancel orders because they feel like it. Contracts will have to be adhered to.

They sure as heck do need a next gen engine to be significantly more efficient than the NEO. Maybe they can get 3%-5% better with materials and aerodynamic improvements but nowhere near the improvement necessary to charge the necessary price premium to support a clean sheet program.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:43 pm

The other consideration is are Boeing going to make any money selling the 737MAX?

It is generally acknowledged that the 737MAX is not as efficient as the A320 series... so it must be priced aggressively to make it an attractive proposition to customers.
It has been grounded over a year at a huge expense to Boeing,.. also the supply chain has been disrupted so no doubt the cost of components will have increased.. also add in the cost of modifying and certifying each frame.. then Boeing on the hook for the extra pilot training.. so are they ever going to make a profit on the 737MAX programme... if not why continue with it?

Reminds me of when the British Motor Corporation first launched the Mini car... it was so expensive to make that they lost money on each car sold...
 
ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:58 am

planecane wrote:

When RTS is approved, airlines won't be able to just cancel orders because they feel like it. Contracts will have to be adhered to.

.


First of all, if RTS is approved i think you mean!

And how many of those contracts you mention, will have cancellation clauses that Boeing will have to adhere to when cancellations start pouring in, due to delays and/or missed delivery deadlines?

And would those cancellations come with progress payment and deposit refunds?

I'm sure there are some airlines that would live to cancel and get their money back.
 
pune
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:36 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
LJ wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Now would be a good time for Boeing to announce the cancellation of the entire MAX program. It would be completely lost and ignored by the mainstream media because of other news.

Airlines would be grateful not to have to take their rather optimistic orders, and Boeing won’t make a loss on building more.

They could actually come out of this stronger, with a new replacement arriving at about the time, when this industry starts returning to normal in about 3-4 years time.

The 777X program should also be delayed until then as well, to facilitate a newer generation engine.


There is one problem. How is Boeing going to pay for the replacement of the MAX? The current crisis means that Boeing is stuck with the MAX. As such they cannot cancel it anymore. They need the cash and thus they need t find a way to get it into the air. Even worse, this crisis may just mean that the MAX will be around longer than maybe Boeing even wants it to be.

enzo011 wrote:
It is 4500 orders that still outstanding and they are worth zero right now because they are not being delivered to airlines. So they may be worth $560B at list prices on paper but paper doesn't pay bills unfortunately.


At least they have an opportunity of getting cash. Moreover, should they decide to cancel, it would mean they've to return some prepayments and most likely penalties towards its suppliers. This is also something some seem to forget. It's not just Boeing but also companies like Spirit who need the MAX in the air again.

SARS-CoV-2 positive, over 70 years old with underlying health conditions. Intensive care required urgently. Prognosis rather poor, but several organs could be harvested in case of fatal outcome.


This would be gallows humor I presume - Commander Data (Star Trek) :)
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:38 pm

pune wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
LJ wrote:

There is one problem. How is Boeing going to pay for the replacement of the MAX? The current crisis means that Boeing is stuck with the MAX. As such they cannot cancel it anymore. They need the cash and thus they need t find a way to get it into the air. Even worse, this crisis may just mean that the MAX will be around longer than maybe Boeing even wants it to be.



At least they have an opportunity of getting cash. Moreover, should they decide to cancel, it would mean they've to return some prepayments and most likely penalties towards its suppliers. This is also something some seem to forget. It's not just Boeing but also companies like Spirit who need the MAX in the air again.

SARS-CoV-2 positive, over 70 years old with underlying health conditions. Intensive care required urgently. Prognosis rather poor, but several organs could be harvested in case of fatal outcome.


This would be gallows humor I presume - Commander Data (Star Trek) :)

'..when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth..' - Commander Data after Conan Doyle.

Ray
 
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hilram
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:52 pm

Now, remember that 737 MAX RTS has been "right around the corner" since May 2019. Since then, the program has been set back by
* Public scrutiny towards the FAA and Boeing, bringing an end to "self-certification"
* New demands from the FAA - documentation and procedures must be rewritten
* New demands from EASA and other regulators - Simulator Training now mandatory
* New finds of Design flaws (Bit-Flip, Wireing, Lightning Protection)
* New finds in lack of Qality Control (debris/tools in Fuel tanks)
* Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic

Honestly, i think the program was hanging by its fingertips a month ago. I think this Pandemic will be the boot that stomped on those fingertips.

Bye bye, 737 MAX.

Good for Dennis he got out in time, before Boeing had the good sense to fire him outright, without bonuses and stock benefits.
Flown on: A319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343 | B732, 734, 735, 736, 73G, 738, 743, 744, 772, 77W | CRJ9 | BAe-146 | DHC-6, 7, 8 | F50 | E195 | MD DC-9 41, MD-82, MD-87
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:48 pm

Its going to be hard to convince people they need this aircraft. No new orders will be rolling in as preexisting orders from lessors will need new homes, and airlines will be looking to offload excess frames. It will be hard to push contractual obligations on companies under the circumstances. I have no idea how you work yourself out from here, its a task I am glad not to have. Eventually the results will manifest itself and we will all be able to see how it shakes out.
 
cedarjet
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:55 pm

The Max is finished. Even as recently as December, pilots who had been given runaway MCAS training flunked sim rides (according to Bloomberg). So that’s still an issue (and they were American pilots, haters). There’s going to be a massive financial depression which will not only crush demand but cratered jet fuel prices will undermine the Max’s only advantage, efficiency.

Stick a fork in her, she’s done.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
TaromA380
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:28 pm

hilram wrote:
Good for Dennis he got out in time, before Boeing had the good sense to fire him outright, without bonuses and stock benefits.

It's amazing how my own (naive) opinion changed over time.

One year ago I was thinking What a strange situation, he as CEO wasn't aware of the garbage some employees were doing, how fortunate that his inner sense of engineering will quickly put things in their place.

Over time, it become obvious that the king was naked. He was just continuing bluffing in a last poker bet, instead of right engineering management.

Today I'm wondering what would have been the outcome if an Airbus undercover agent was hired as Boeing's CEO during 2015-2019.

And an accessory wondering. Is Airbus sending him presents, congratulations, pension or what not, for everything he managed to do ? It would be a shame if not.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:33 pm

I wonder if Boeing could re-engine the existing MAX-8 and 9 with the NG engines? That would at least salvage the airframe value.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:11 pm

cedarjet wrote:
The Max is finished. Even as recently as December, pilots who had been given runaway MCAS training flunked sim rides (according to Bloomberg). So that’s still an issue (and they were American pilots, haters). There’s going to be a massive financial depression which will not only crush demand but cratered jet fuel prices will undermine the Max’s only advantage, efficiency.

Stick a fork in her, she’s done.

The funny thing is those same pilots flew the MAX in commercial service for over a year, and now that the FAA and regulators got a hold of the a/c and made their changes they are now unable to fly the a/c.
Really can't make this stuff up.
 
Dogman
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:39 pm

par13del wrote:
cedarjet wrote:
The Max is finished. Even as recently as December, pilots who had been given runaway MCAS training flunked sim rides (according to Bloomberg). So that’s still an issue (and they were American pilots, haters). There’s going to be a massive financial depression which will not only crush demand but cratered jet fuel prices will undermine the Max’s only advantage, efficiency.

Stick a fork in her, she’s done.

The funny thing is those same pilots flew the MAX in commercial service for over a year, and now that the FAA and regulators got a hold of the a/c and made their changes they are now unable to fly the a/c.
Really can't make this stuff up.


If I am not mistaken, the pilots failed to recover the plane during a simulated MCAS runaway, something they did not encounter while flying the MAX commercially. Nothing to do with "the FAA and regulators got a hold of the a/c and made their changes', whatever you mean by that.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:08 pm

Dogman wrote:
par13del wrote:
cedarjet wrote:
The Max is finished. Even as recently as December, pilots who had been given runaway MCAS training flunked sim rides (according to Bloomberg). So that’s still an issue (and they were American pilots, haters). There’s going to be a massive financial depression which will not only crush demand but cratered jet fuel prices will undermine the Max’s only advantage, efficiency.

Stick a fork in her, she’s done.

The funny thing is those same pilots flew the MAX in commercial service for over a year, and now that the FAA and regulators got a hold of the a/c and made their changes they are now unable to fly the a/c.
Really can't make this stuff up.


If I am not mistaken, the pilots failed to recover the plane during a simulated MCAS runaway, something they did not encounter while flying the MAX commercially. Nothing to do with "the FAA and regulators got a hold of the a/c and made their changes', whatever you mean by that.

Ah no, if we are talking about the FAA recent test they all recovered the a/c, they just did it by means other than the scripted mandatory way that the regulators required. I am sure the initial poster knows that but wanted to make this issue look worse that it actually is, the MAX had / has much larger problems, first test of the new training requirements is expected to have failures, until it is vetted and simplified for crews testing and verification must continue.

Without actual evidence, my assumption is that they relied on their 737 / flying knowledge versus what they were shown on paper.
 
Dogman
Posts: 119
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:16 pm

par13del wrote:
Dogman wrote:
par13del wrote:
The funny thing is those same pilots flew the MAX in commercial service for over a year, and now that the FAA and regulators got a hold of the a/c and made their changes they are now unable to fly the a/c.
Really can't make this stuff up.


If I am not mistaken, the pilots failed to recover the plane during a simulated MCAS runaway, something they did not encounter while flying the MAX commercially. Nothing to do with "the FAA and regulators got a hold of the a/c and made their changes', whatever you mean by that.

Ah no, if we are talking about the FAA recent test they all recovered the a/c, they just did it by means other than the scripted mandatory way that the regulators required. I am sure the initial poster knows that but wanted to make this issue look worse that it actually is, the MAX had / has much larger problems, first test of the new training requirements is expected to have failures, until it is vetted and simplified for crews testing and verification must continue.

Without actual evidence, my assumption is that they relied on their 737 / flying knowledge versus what they were shown on paper.


Speaking about actual evidence, are you sure that the "scripted mandatory way" was provided by regulators? I must admit I am completely ignorant about this issue, but it seems to be strange that regulators script a way to deal with an issue like runaway MCAS instead of the OEM. Can anybody with knowledge chime in?
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:46 pm

DenverTed wrote:
I wonder if Boeing could re-engine the existing MAX-8 and 9 with the NG engines? That would at least salvage the airframe value.


you dont understand the case

the aerodynamical atittude of the airframes are the underlying problem
other engines dont change that
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:09 pm

Dogman wrote:
Speaking about actual evidence, are you sure that the "scripted mandatory way" was provided by regulators? I must admit I am completely ignorant about this issue, but it seems to be strange that regulators script a way to deal with an issue like runaway MCAS instead of the OEM. Can anybody with knowledge chime in?

After an a/c has been grounded for fatal crashes and is being re-certified to correct deficiencies that existed even in its prior NG iteration, do you really believe the world regulators simply say to Boeing on the training issue "fix it" and just sit back and wait to see what the OEM does?
It may well be so, but in my opinion, even prior to the Covid action, I would think that all and sundry would like a resolution in the best interest of all, which means involvement or being proactive.

As for "scripted", those are supposed to be instructions / procedures and steps to follow that have been tested and vetted to ensue that if followed it achieves the result required, they should also be logical, devoid of any confusion and understandable by third world and first world pilots, in essence, anyone who operates the a/c.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:12 pm

asdf wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
I wonder if Boeing could re-engine the existing MAX-8 and 9 with the NG engines? That would at least salvage the airframe value.


you dont understand the case

the aerodynamical atittude of the airframes are the underlying problem
other engines dont change that

Well to be picky, if the fan is smaller and they are able to mount lower on the wing, it might work.
May not be efficient but could eliminate the need for MCAS. As for the wire bundles, training, additional redundancy......
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:47 pm

par13del wrote:
Dogman wrote:
Speaking about actual evidence, are you sure that the "scripted mandatory way" was provided by regulators? I must admit I am completely ignorant about this issue, but it seems to be strange that regulators script a way to deal with an issue like runaway MCAS instead of the OEM. Can anybody with knowledge chime in?

After an a/c has been grounded for fatal crashes and is being re-certified to correct deficiencies that existed even in its prior NG iteration, do you really believe the world regulators simply say to Boeing on the training issue "fix it" and just sit back and wait to see what the OEM does?
Er... yes.

That is EXACTLY how it happens.
Lord knows it's been mentioned in these threads enough times.

Perhaps you could explain to us all why "the world regulators" would expose themselves by offering to write part of the training regime for Boeing? Where should they stop; why not write all of it for Boeing, and then take full responsibility if it turns out wrong? Brilliant idea. :roll:

I can see why the FAA might be under some pressure to help Boeing with the really big words and that sort of stuff, but the others?

Of course if Boeing were new to the game and this was their first commercial airliner, it would be kind to offer a few basic pointers.
As it is, Boeing has got decades of experience, and far deeper pockets, than the FAA could possibly dream of. And Boeing are the ones who will make $millions $billions from getting it right so I really do see that it's their problem to solve.
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
beechnut
Posts: 933
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:49 pm

par13del wrote:
Well to be picky, if the fan is smaller and they are able to mount lower on the wing, it might work.
May not be efficient but could eliminate the need for MCAS. As for the wire bundles, training, additional redundancy......


The would likely have to redesign the wing. Wing design takes into consideration the engine's weight, moment, pylon design, mounting position, etc. There's no way this could be an "easier" solution than redesigning MCAS, though that itself appears to be proving to be no picnic. But likely still way cheaper and faster than redesigning a wing.

Beech
 
DenverTed
Posts: 492
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:12 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:55 pm

par13del wrote:
asdf wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
I wonder if Boeing could re-engine the existing MAX-8 and 9 with the NG engines? That would at least salvage the airframe value.


you dont understand the case

the aerodynamical atittude of the airframes are the underlying problem
other engines dont change that

Well to be picky, if the fan is smaller and they are able to mount lower on the wing, it might work.
May not be efficient but could eliminate the need for MCAS. As for the wire bundles, training, additional redundancy......

Old engines would make it close to an NG, minus the reshaped tailcone. Is the training and redundancy part and parcel of MCAS and the bigger engines which would be removed?
Hard to see them abandon 50 billion in brand new aircraft, although I could see only a few hundred 737 fuselages produced at Spirit going forward as things are wrapped up.
 
Dogman
Posts: 119
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:47 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:55 pm

par13del wrote:
Dogman wrote:
Speaking about actual evidence, are you sure that the "scripted mandatory way" was provided by regulators? I must admit I am completely ignorant about this issue, but it seems to be strange that regulators script a way to deal with an issue like runaway MCAS instead of the OEM. Can anybody with knowledge chime in?

After an a/c has been grounded for fatal crashes and is being re-certified to correct deficiencies that existed even in its prior NG iteration, do you really believe the world regulators simply say to Boeing on the training issue "fix it" and just sit back and wait to see what the OEM does?
It may well be so, but in my opinion, even prior to the Covid action, I would think that all and sundry would like a resolution in the best interest of all, which means involvement or being proactive.

As for "scripted", those are supposed to be instructions / procedures and steps to follow that have been tested and vetted to ensue that if followed it achieves the result required, they should also be logical, devoid of any confusion and understandable by third world and first world pilots, in essence, anyone who operates the a/c.


I am sure that there is a process in place. I don't know whether "the world regulators simply say to Boeing on the training issue "fix it" and just sit back and wait to see what the OEM does?" May be that IS the process. And judging by your "It may well be so," you do not know either.
What I have problem with is according to your post "instructions / procedures and steps to follow that have been tested and vetted to ensue that if followed it achieves the result required, they should also be logical, devoid of any confusion and understandable by third world and first world pilots, in essence, anyone who operates the a/c." are written by regulators. In my opinion that's OEM's job. They need to design, script, vet all of above, and then present it to the regulators and demonstrate that they work. You haven't provided any evidence that there are some "scripted mandatory ways" that regulators provided to the pilots for those tests.
 
DenverTed
Posts: 492
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:59 pm

beechnut wrote:
par13del wrote:
Well to be picky, if the fan is smaller and they are able to mount lower on the wing, it might work.
May not be efficient but could eliminate the need for MCAS. As for the wire bundles, training, additional redundancy......


The would likely have to redesign the wing. Wing design takes into consideration the engine's weight, moment, pylon design, mounting position, etc. There's no way this could be an "easier" solution than redesigning MCAS, though that itself appears to be proving to be no picnic. But likely still way cheaper and faster than redesigning a wing.

Beech

I'm sure that is true, although I wonder how much the DC-8-70 program required wing redesign?
 
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par13del
Posts: 10350
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:18 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:

That is EXACTLY how it happens.
Lord knows it's been mentioned in these threads enough times.

Perhaps you could explain to us all why "the world regulators" would expose themselves by offering to write part of the training regime for Boeing? Where should they stop; why not write all of it for Boeing, and then take full responsibility if it turns out wrong? Brilliant idea. :roll:

Unfortunately the english language is not the native tongue for many, so when persons write being involved it is understandable that folks would take that to mean write the stuff for Boeing.
Funny how the Canadians obviously had an internal discussion going on which was leaked to the media, but it is what it is.

The a/c is still grounded so all is well and the pax are safe.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:26 pm

Dogman wrote:
What I have problem with is according to your post "instructions / procedures and steps to follow that have been tested and vetted to ensue that if followed it achieves the result required, they should also be logical, devoid of any confusion and understandable by third world and first world pilots, in essence, anyone who operates the a/c." are written by regulators. In my opinion that's OEM's job. They need to design, script, vet all of above, and then present it to the regulators and demonstrate that they work. You haven't provided any evidence that there are some "scripted mandatory ways" that regulators provided to the pilots for those tests.

Well the OEM was required to make MCAS safe so the a/c did not become a lawn dart, have you seen anything written since those pilots did their sim training that the a/c did become a lawn dart? If it had it would be in the sticky thread. Additionally, what was reported was that the pilots were all able to recover the a/c, if that is all that was required the training section of re-certification would have been finished, we know that it is not because it needs to be a set standard that all can follow. Maybe you have an issue with the word scripted? We do know that the regulators have to approve the new manuals, so how exactly do you think they are going to do that? A second sim session will be coming after procedures are adjusted, it is a process, the initial failure does not mean the project is doomed.
 
ShamrockBoi330
Posts: 353
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:28 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:11 am

So reports this evening of a restart lf production in May of the MAX, COVID-19 dependent.

Does this seem a bit optimistic given the current climate with airlines and the backlog of jets just sitting around gathering dust?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/boeing- ... s-say.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusiv ... 29043.html
 
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par13del
Posts: 10350
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:05 am

The second bullet point is the most important / critical, US regulators clearing RTS, so this may just be another case of trying to influence the FAA, seems as if the new CEO has the same problem as the last, talk too much.
 
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767333ER
Posts: 1170
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:14 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:48 am

par13del wrote:
asdf wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
I wonder if Boeing could re-engine the existing MAX-8 and 9 with the NG engines? That would at least salvage the airframe value.


you dont understand the case

the aerodynamical atittude of the airframes are the underlying problem
other engines dont change that

Well to be picky, if the fan is smaller and they are able to mount lower on the wing, it might work.
May not be efficient but could eliminate the need for MCAS. As for the wire bundles, training, additional redundancy......

At that rate they’d almost be better off bolting on some V2500s and calling it a day... they should’ve offered that engine on the NG.
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172R C172S P2006T PA-28-180

2 ears for spatial hearing, 2 eyes for depth perception, 2 ears for balance... How did Boeing think 1 sensor was good enough?!
 
TaromA380
Posts: 363
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:35 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:24 pm

No word about re certification and FAA's approval, but they're telling the planet about restarting production.

Now, let's not forget how desperate is the situation behind the smokes. It might influence rationality in every behaviour.
 
Dogman
Posts: 119
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:47 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:14 pm

par13del wrote:
Dogman wrote:
What I have problem with is according to your post "instructions / procedures and steps to follow that have been tested and vetted to ensue that if followed it achieves the result required, they should also be logical, devoid of any confusion and understandable by third world and first world pilots, in essence, anyone who operates the a/c." are written by regulators. In my opinion that's OEM's job. They need to design, script, vet all of above, and then present it to the regulators and demonstrate that they work. You haven't provided any evidence that there are some "scripted mandatory ways" that regulators provided to the pilots for those tests.

Well the OEM was required to make MCAS safe so the a/c did not become a lawn dart, have you seen anything written since those pilots did their sim training that the a/c did become a lawn dart? If it had it would be in the sticky thread. Additionally, what was reported was that the pilots were all able to recover the a/c, if that is all that was required the training section of re-certification would have been finished, we know that it is not because it needs to be a set standard that all can follow. Maybe you have an issue with the word scripted? We do know that the regulators have to approve the new manuals, so how exactly do you think they are going to do that? A second sim session will be coming after procedures are adjusted, it is a process, the initial failure does not mean the project is doomed.


The way you've answered my question reminded me this: https://youtu.be/LBs1kb8P70k?t=63
 
Scotron12
Posts: 496
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:45 pm

Is it true? Boeing has got clearance to resume production and deliveries of the 737MAX?

RTS is when??
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