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VonRichtofen
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:25 am

qf789 wrote:
SIA has order 30,000 employees take unpaid leave

https://twitter.com/tak_goto43/status/1 ... 38176?s=20


Any source other than some random Twitter post? I don't think SIA even has 30,000 employees total.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:43 am

VonRichtofen wrote:
qf789 wrote:
SIA has order 30,000 employees take unpaid leave

https://twitter.com/tak_goto43/status/1 ... 38176?s=20


Any source other than some random Twitter post? I don't think SIA even has 30,000 employees total.


Good call. They don't. Its 15,000 or so according to WIKI
 
ArtV
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:00 am

Antaras wrote:
Dozens of aircraft (VN and VJ) are being grounded at HAN.
Vietnam Airlines once said that it has grounded 40 of its planes.
Image


I counted 6 VN widebodies alone (350 & 789) parked at remote stands in SGN yesterday. There were plenty of 320s across the apron too,

All Korean flying has been cancelled for VN (but not yet VJ), which means that the two biggest inbound markets, representing 55% of all inbound tourists, are now ceased (China and Korea)
 
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Antaras
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:43 am

ArtV wrote:
Antaras wrote:
Dozens of aircraft (VN and VJ) are being grounded at HAN.
Vietnam Airlines once said that it has grounded 40 of its planes.
Image


I counted 6 VN widebodies alone (350 & 789) parked at remote stands in SGN yesterday. There were plenty of 320s across the apron too,

All Korean flying has been cancelled for VN (but not yet VJ), which means that the two biggest inbound markets, representing 55% of all inbound tourists, are now ceased (China and Korea)


That's the reason why VN is leasing out its airframes.
Parking dozens of aircraft is not a profitable choice.
Let's wait that which carriers will VN lease their frames to .....

It seems international market in Vietnam is crashing. Two of three biggest market that Vietnamese carriers are digging is Korea and China mainland, had collapsed.
Just yesterday, VN announced that it will divert and cancel all Korean flights, become the second operator (after Bamboo) which suspended Kr services. This left VJ alone as the only Vietnamese carrier left serving Korea. However, pax keep cancelling their tickets which force VJ has to cancel a large number of flights.
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indcwby
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:50 pm

Qatar Airways Marketing their cleanliness of their aircraft in response to Coronavirus scare.

https://twitter.com/qatarairways/status ... 79809?s=20
A319, A320, A330, A340, B717, B727, B737, B747, B757, B767, B777, CRJ7, DC10, MD88, MD11, E145, E175
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PixelFlight
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:06 pm

indcwby wrote:
Qatar Airways Marketing their cleanliness of their aircraft in response to Coronavirus scare.

https://twitter.com/qatarairways/status ... 79809?s=20

Nice cabin cleaning, ok.
But nothing about all the air conditioner system...
Did there even replace the main filters ?
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:39 pm

My employer (global chemical company) has changed their travel restriction from do not travel to certain affected countries to no travel is permitted outside your home country and domestic travel is limited to essential only. I am guessing near time corporate bookings, one of the better yielding segments, are taking a hit hence cheap availability in near future.
 
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Polot
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:51 pm

Antaras wrote:

That's the reason why VN is leasing out its airframes.
Parking dozens of aircraft is not a profitable choice.
Let's wait that which carriers will VN lease their frames to .....

They will probably end up leasing to nobody. This is no longer a regional issue, and airlines worldwide will have decreased demand and increased slack in their widebody fleets. No need to lease in additional aircraft on a temporary basis.
 
SeoulIncheon
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:41 pm

Antaras wrote:
ArtV wrote:
Antaras wrote:
Dozens of aircraft (VN and VJ) are being grounded at HAN.
Vietnam Airlines once said that it has grounded 40 of its planes.
Image


I counted 6 VN widebodies alone (350 & 789) parked at remote stands in SGN yesterday. There were plenty of 320s across the apron too,

All Korean flying has been cancelled for VN (but not yet VJ), which means that the two biggest inbound markets, representing 55% of all inbound tourists, are now ceased (China and Korea)


That's the reason why VN is leasing out its airframes.
Parking dozens of aircraft is not a profitable choice.
Let's wait that which carriers will VN lease their frames to .....

It seems international market in Vietnam is crashing. Two of three biggest market that Vietnamese carriers are digging is Korea and China mainland, had collapsed.
Just yesterday, VN announced that it will divert and cancel all Korean flights, become the second operator (after Bamboo) which suspended Kr services. This left VJ alone as the only Vietnamese carrier left serving Korea. However, pax keep cancelling their tickets which force VJ has to cancel a large number of flights.


Any foreigner who visited in Korea within 14 days are to be quarantined for 14 days upon entry into Vietnam. Hence I don't see any Korean wanting to fly to Vietnam at this point - and VJ will sooner or later cancel Korea routes too.
 
factsonly
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:59 pm

Korean Airlines suspends many routes to Europe and North America:

Incheon-Honolulu KE051/052 3/25~3/28 Suspended KE053/054 3/9~3/28 3/W(Mon,Wed,Thu)Decreased 3/29~4/25 3/W(Tue,Wed,Thu)Decreased
Incheon-SanFrancisco KE023/024 3/5~4/25 Suspended, KE025/026 3/29~4/25 3/W(Tue,Wed,Sat)Decreased
Incheon-Boston KE091/092 3/8~4/25 Suspended
Incheon-NewYork KE085/086 3/5~4/25 Suspended
Incheon-Chicago KE037/038 3/9~3/28 4/W(Mon,Wed,Thu,Sat)Decreased, 3/29~4/25 4/W(Mon,Wed,Fri,Sun)Decreased;
Incheon-Washington KE093/094 3/9~3/28 4/W(Mon,Wed,Fri,Sun)Decreased, 3/29~4/25 4/W(Mon,Tue,Thu,Sat)Decreased
Incheon-Dallas KE031/032 3/9~4/25 Suspended
Incheon-Atlanta KE035/036 3/9~3/28 Suspended, 3/29~4/25 3/W(Wed,Fri,Sun)Decreased
Incheon-LasVegas KE005/006 3/9~4/25 Suspended
Incheon-LosAngeles KE017/018 3/8~4/25 Suspended
Incheon-Seattle KE019/020 3/9~4/25 Suspended
Incheon-Vancouver KE071/072 3/9~4/25 3/W(Mon,Wed,Fri)Decreased
Incheon-Toronto KE073/074 3/9~3/28 3/W(Tue,Fri,Sun)Decreased, 3/29~4/25 Suspended

Europe:

Only SEL-AMS and SEL-CDG remain at full schedule

Incheon-TelAviv KE957/958 2/24~4/25 Suspended
Incheon-Milan KE927/928 3/8~4/24 Suspended
Incheon-Barcelona KE915/916 3/5~4/25 Suspended
Incheon-Madrid KE913/914 3/5~4/25 Suspended
Incheon-Vienna KE937/938 3/29~4/25 2/W(Mon,Sat)Decreased
Incheon-Zagreb KE919/920 3/31~4/23 Suspended
Incheon-Istanbul KE955/956 3/1~4/25 Suspended
Incheon-Zurich KE917/918 3/31~4/23 Suspended
Incheon-London KE907/908 3/5~4/25 4/W(Tue,Thu,Fri,Sun)Decreased
Incheon-Prague KE935/936 3/5~4/25 Suspended
Incheon-Frankfurt KE905/906 3/5~4/25 Suspended
Incheon-Rome KE913/914 3/5~4/25 Suspended

etc.....

https://www.koreanair.com/content/dam/k ... 5%EC%A7%80)_0303%201615%20-%20ENG.pdf
 
Ishrion
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:03 pm

AA’s DFW-ICN suspended until April 24

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx
 
Tuan
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:50 pm

SeoulIncheon wrote:
Antaras wrote:
ArtV wrote:

I counted 6 VN widebodies alone (350 & 789) parked at remote stands in SGN yesterday. There were plenty of 320s across the apron too,

All Korean flying has been cancelled for VN (but not yet VJ), which means that the two biggest inbound markets, representing 55% of all inbound tourists, are now ceased (China and Korea)


That's the reason why VN is leasing out its airframes.
Parking dozens of aircraft is not a profitable choice.
Let's wait that which carriers will VN lease their frames to .....

It seems international market in Vietnam is crashing. Two of three biggest market that Vietnamese carriers are digging is Korea and China mainland, had collapsed.
Just yesterday, VN announced that it will divert and cancel all Korean flights, become the second operator (after Bamboo) which suspended Kr services. This left VJ alone as the only Vietnamese carrier left serving Korea. However, pax keep cancelling their tickets which force VJ has to cancel a large number of flights.


Any foreigner who visited in Korea within 14 days are to be quarantined for 14 days upon entry into Vietnam. Hence I don't see any Korean wanting to fly to Vietnam at this point - and VJ will sooner or later cancel Korea routes too.

Lots of Vietnamese living in Korea are seriously considering returning, quarantine or not. At least all the costs of quarantine will be paid by the government, except about 2.5 US$/day for meals.
 
Bostrom
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:05 pm

SAS suspends all routes to nothern Italy (Milan, Bologna, Turin and Venice) until 2020-03-16.

Source
 
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:21 pm

REMINDER

This Coronavirus thread is for discussion on aviation related matters ONLY as stated in the title of this thread along with the opening post. If you wish to discuss anything that is NOT aviation related it is to be discussed in the Non-Aviation forum.

As there has been a high amount of deletions for users who have discussed non-aviation matters in this thread (over 100 post deletions in the past 3 days alone) the following will now take place

Any off topic post will be deleted and a warning may be issued. Repeat offenders are at risk of receiving a ban which will be handed out at the discretion of the moderator issuing it.
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HB-IWC
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:25 pm

factsonly wrote:
Korean Airlines suspends many routes to Europe and North America:


https://www.koreanair.com/content/dam/k ... 5%EC%A7%80)_0303%201615%20-%20ENG.pdf



Those KE cuts are just massive, there won't be much left flying. It seems KE is relatively cutting more than CX did.
 
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chepos
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Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:29 pm

HB-IWC wrote:
factsonly wrote:
Korean Airlines suspends many routes to Europe and North America:


https://www.koreanair.com/content/dam/k ... 5%EC%A7%80)_0303%201615%20-%20ENG.pdf



Those KE cuts are just massive, there won't be much left flying. It seems KE is relatively cutting more than CX did.


Well considering all the COVID 19 fuss and Korea seeing so many cases, few people are willingly traveling to Korea. Knowing peoples mindset, I’m sure some would even be afraid of connecting at ICN. Not surprising KE is really affected by this, actually surprised they are keeping that amount of flights to the US.


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indcwby
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:15 pm

Delta has updated their advisory in lieu of the Coronavirus situation, with some relaxing of policies. Focus is on International Flights.

https://www.delta.com/us/en/advisories/ ... -situation
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Kno
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:48 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
My employer (global chemical company) has changed their travel restriction from do not travel to certain affected countries to no travel is permitted outside your home country and domestic travel is limited to essential only. I am guessing near time corporate bookings, one of the better yielding segments, are taking a hit hence cheap availability in near future.


I am hearing this from a lot of friends and family and I'm in Boston. I'd imagine this is already affecting domestic travel.
 
tphuang
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:54 pm

Kno wrote:
Exeiowa wrote:
My employer (global chemical company) has changed their travel restriction from do not travel to certain affected countries to no travel is permitted outside your home country and domestic travel is limited to essential only. I am guessing near time corporate bookings, one of the better yielding segments, are taking a hit hence cheap availability in near future.


I am hearing this from a lot of friends and family and I'm in Boston. I'd imagine this is already affecting domestic travel.


yeah, I think a lot of people are getting it and have gotten it since end of last week. Not a great time for domestic airlines.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:56 pm

Seattle Times ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -shrivels/ ) has an excellent article about comments made at the industry conference in Austin.

Basically it says how many have been underestimating the impact on the aviation industry, mainly presuming its impact would be similar to the 2003 SARS outbreak, but the 2019 outbreak is far more impactful.

Specifically,

Keynote speaker Rob Morris, global head of consultancy for Flight Ascend by Cirium, warned of a “period of great uncertainty” and the likelihood of “significant airline failures” in 2020.

He declared the industry’s 10-year growth cycle over. For airlines, he said, the fact that Boeing’s 737 MAX is grounded “is a virtue right now” because the world’s airplane fleet capacity has to shrink in the months ahead.

And:

Among the airlines mentioned on the sidelines of the conference as likely to face enormous stress on their cash reserves are Norwegian, a major customer for Boeing’s 737 MAX, and Air Asia, a major customer for the Airbus A320neo and A330neo.

Very interesting article, one I recommend reading.
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Revelation
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:41 pm

Interesting tweet, seems WW is drawing a line in the sand:

Max Kingsley-Jones @MaxK_J

"I don't think #coronavirus is an excuse for weak airlines to ask for state aid": Willie Walsh #A4ESummit

Ref: https://twitter.com/MaxK_J/status/1234783320019472384
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:45 pm

Revelation wrote:
Basically it says how many have been underestimating the impact on the aviation industry, mainly presuming its impact would be similar to the 2003 SARS outbreak, but the 2019 outbreak is far more impactful.


The amount of growth in China from 2003 to 2019/2020 doesn't help the global picture, either. There are a LOT of planes, and a LOT more planes, nowaday in China compare to 17 years ago. Chinese airlines are similar in size to some US-based airlines in terms of fleet size.

Throw in the fact that the outbreak is no longer just limited to China (i.e. Italy and South Korea and Iran), that's a huge impact to aviation all over the world.
======================================
Meanwhile, TG is also cutting back on many flights, even though the impact of nCoV inside Thailand is not that big relatively:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-02mar20/

This just show the ripple effects on airlines in the region. Similar to VN/VJ/Bamboo, just b/c the home country is not really affected, doesn't mean inbound demand doesn't drop.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:35 pm

Ford Motor Company bans all domestic and international air travel.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/busin ... 4929155002
 
Indy
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:36 pm

Just saw a story that NC has its first infected person They were in Seattle and just returned home Wake County. This means they few SEA-RDU with a possible connection somewhere in the middle. But assume for a moment there were no connections. This means the person was in close contact with countless people in the TSA line, people around the gate, and of course people in the plane. I know officials are wanting to find out who was around them in the flight, but that doesn't account for all of the other people that have been in contact with the passenger. Are there any measures in place to protect TSA workers? People pack in tight in those lines. Looks like an idea spot to really spread a virus.

https://abc11.com/health/first-nc-novel ... y/5982249/
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
uta999
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:01 pm

This could very well be the end for the remaining BA 744 fleet, in a similar way to Concorde after 9/11.
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HNLSLCPDX
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:07 pm

It’s too bad the COVID-19 has been blown out of proportion and has got to this point. Many people within the airline industry are one’s paying the price of this all because media outlets such as CNN, MSNBC, etc. love creating chaos and fear. The common flu is deadlier and has caused thousands of more deaths within the same time since COVID-19 has come about.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:21 pm

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
It’s too bad the COVID-19 has been blown out of proportion and has got to this point. Many people within the airline industry are one’s paying the price of this all because media outlets such as CNN, MSNBC, etc. love creating chaos and fear. The common flu is deadlier and has caused thousands of more deaths within the same time since COVID-19 has come about.


I will side with you that perhaps maybe they kick started it early but bottom line is because this is NEW the panic would be ensuing now anyway with cases all over the US. This was inevitable media or not. The question is how long does it go for. Max direct impact is probably 12-15 months with you figure a year lag from there til everyone is mentally over it. If summer or just spread/mutations wane this in the next 3-4 months it'll be a barely noticeable blip on the industry. As I said days ago, with all the added fees now and better structure I would bet none of the big 4 in the U.S. turn a loss this year even if this persists all year, I have my doubts about AA but not the other 3. This is way different than 2001 as far as how the industry carriers are structured.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:23 pm

I am guessing we see a 20-30% across the board capacity cut coming for April by the end of the week by the US3
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:31 pm

The Coronavirus Pandemic feels like a slow-motion version of the 9/11 attacks. Instead of overnight collapsing air travel demand, air travel in this case will bleed for months with less and less people willing to travel. I would not be surprised to see all the US domestic airlines declare bankruptcy (Ch. 11) by early Fall.
 
Indy
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:40 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
The Coronavirus Pandemic feels like a slow-motion version of the 9/11 attacks. Instead of overnight collapsing air travel demand, air travel in this case will bleed for months with less and less people willing to travel. I would not be surprised to see all the US domestic airlines declare bankruptcy (Ch. 11) by early Fall.


I think the industry will be fine. Flu season should end sometime next month. After that things will start returning to normal. We will see lower spring break travel numbers, but perhaps summer travel numbers will be higher than normal as people make up for missed spring vacations.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:44 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
The Coronavirus Pandemic feels like a slow-motion version of the 9/11 attacks. Instead of overnight collapsing air travel demand, air travel in this case will bleed for months with less and less people willing to travel. I would not be surprised to see all the US domestic airlines declare bankruptcy (Ch. 11) by early Fall.

Wow. Wishful thinking. Not going to happen.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:45 pm

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
The Coronavirus Pandemic feels like a slow-motion version of the 9/11 attacks. Instead of overnight collapsing air travel demand, air travel in this case will bleed for months with less and less people willing to travel. I would not be surprised to see all the US domestic airlines declare bankruptcy (Ch. 11) by early Fall.

Wow. Wishful thinking. Not going to happen.


I don't wish for it to happen, but the probability of it happening is there.
 
tphuang
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:13 am

Some airlines are better able to handle this than others. Just taking a look at each major factors I can think of and how it hurts the most and least.

Margin: DL/WN have best margins and AA has far away the lowest.

Debt to equity Ratio: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... panies.asp
WN/B6 the best and UA/AA the worst. NK/G4 are the worst amongst LCC/ULCCs

Most fixed cost: AA is far and away the worst here. Followed by UA/DL. ULCCs are the lowest.

Most able to reduce flights: WN/B6/AS. All 3 are either suffering MAX or A321NEO delays. All can just reduce aircraft utilization to a more reasonable level and do more cabin refresh instead of fliying them. Legacies are going to suffer due to scope clause. I think AA is already running into problems here. Seems like DL is in the best shape amongst legacies. NK/F9 are in big trouble here. A lot of NEO deliveries for a lot of planned growth. NO where to put them. CASM-ex is going to go really high up if they start to reduce flights.

Most to lose from TPAC flights: UA/DL. AA next and then HA. Others not affected.

Most to lose from TATL flights. DL and UA since they are stronger in continental Europe. AA next. Others not affected other than losing some feed. WN in best shape here.

Most of lose from corporate spending going to 0: DL and UA again brag about the corporate travel performance. AA next. ULCCs least affected.

Most to lose from change fees: ULCCs lose most here since they are not going to be able to drop the change fees. WN least affected since they never have it.

Most to gain from lower fuel prices: ULCCs since more of their cost come from fuel than other airlines. WN doesn't gain as much here because they hedge aggressively. And then DL also hedge quite a bit.

Most to lose from added capacity to leisure routes: Since legacies are dumping widebody capacity to Florida/LAS from large population centers. ULCCs get hurt the most here. I assume the legacies have least to lose here.

Just to show how much airlines are discounting to get people to fly leisure. Here is NYC to MCO for a week from now.
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=/m/0 ... 1;t:f;tt:o
that's $37/38 for ULCCs, $49 for UA and $79 across JFK

This is really not normal.

Anyways, looking from above. It's pretty obvious to me AA is in the most trouble here. They are going to have to cut some under performing stuff fast. Legacies as a whole are going to have a hard time with no TATL demand, minimal corporate travel and less flexibility in just grounding aircraft due to scope clause. To me, WN seems like they are the least likely to suffer here. All they need to is cut their schedule to a more reasonable version for their existing aircraft fleet. Instead of running them 12 hours a day, maybe 10 hours a day would be sufficient. NK with its aggressive expansion plans will be in a lot of trouble to from having a lot of new aircraft and no place to put them.
 
Adipocere
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:14 am

Dieuwer wrote:
The Coronavirus Pandemic feels like a slow-motion version of the 9/11 attacks. Instead of overnight collapsing air travel demand, air travel in this case will bleed for months with less and less people willing to travel. I would not be surprised to see all the US domestic airlines declare bankruptcy (Ch. 11) by early Fall.


That’s possible if the US government declares a nationwide curfew and shuts down all airspace, all interstate and roads to everyone but emergency and military personnel, to wait out the pandemic.
 
Thunderbolt500
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:19 am

Adipocere wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
The Coronavirus Pandemic feels like a slow-motion version of the 9/11 attacks. Instead of overnight collapsing air travel demand, air travel in this case will bleed for months with less and less people willing to travel. I would not be surprised to see all the US domestic airlines declare bankruptcy (Ch. 11) by early Fall.


That’s possible if the US government declares a nationwide curfew and shuts down all airspace, all interstate and roads to everyone but emergency and military personnel, to wait out the pandemic.

If this happens I think the country will collapse.
 
CairnterriAIR
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:24 am

Adipocere wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
The Coronavirus Pandemic feels like a slow-motion version of the 9/11 attacks. Instead of overnight collapsing air travel demand, air travel in this case will bleed for months with less and less people willing to travel. I would not be surprised to see all the US domestic airlines declare bankruptcy (Ch. 11) by early Fall.


That’s possible if the US government declares a nationwide curfew and shuts down all airspace, all interstate and roads to everyone but emergency and military personnel, to wait out the pandemic.


Do you honestly think that is actually going to happen???? Realistic thinking please.
 
CriticalPoint
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:01 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:31 am

Dieuwer wrote:
The Coronavirus Pandemic feels like a slow-motion version of the 9/11 attacks. Instead of overnight collapsing air travel demand, air travel in this case will bleed for months with less and less people willing to travel. I would not be surprised to see all the US domestic airlines declare bankruptcy (Ch. 11) by early Fall.


The price of oil is crashing too.....have you taken that into your expert analysis?
 
santi319
Posts: 1021
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:56 am

What will happen is people will realize it is not that bad and will continue their life, sure flying will decrease for a few months and markets will adjust, but overall things will go back to normal by the summer.

Chinese carriers continue flying, and life goes on, once its everywhere it would make no point to close borders, cancel flights, hotels, etc and crash economies. As much as the amazing expert predictions we have in this website, this is not a 9/11 type scenario. Dare I say 70% of those predicting this were not even out of High School when 9/11 actually happened...
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:02 am

JAL and ANA are cancelling a total of 558 domestic flights from March 6th to March 12th, so an average of 80 flights per day.

http://www.news24.jp/articles/2020/03/04/07604001.html
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 887
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:05 am

CriticalPoint wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
The Coronavirus Pandemic feels like a slow-motion version of the 9/11 attacks. Instead of overnight collapsing air travel demand, air travel in this case will bleed for months with less and less people willing to travel. I would not be surprised to see all the US domestic airlines declare bankruptcy (Ch. 11) by early Fall.


The price of oil is crashing too.....have you taken that into your expert analysis?


This likely will not continue:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... -OPEC.html
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
tphuang
Posts: 5196
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:08 am

santi319 wrote:
What will happen is people will realize it is not that bad and will continue their life, sure flying will decrease for a few months and markets will adjust, but overall things will go back to normal by the summer.

Chinese carriers continue flying, and life goes on, once its everywhere it would make no point to close borders, cancel flights, hotels, etc and crash economies. As much as the amazing expert predictions we have in this website, this is not a 9/11 type scenario. Dare I say 70% of those predicting this were not even out of High School when 9/11 actually happened...


A few months of no corporate travel might be too much for a couple of airlines.
 
SeoulIncheon
Posts: 101
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:52 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:15 am

HB-IWC wrote:
factsonly wrote:
Korean Airlines suspends many routes to Europe and North America:


https://www.koreanair.com/content/dam/k ... 5%EC%A7%80)_0303%201615%20-%20ENG.pdf



Those KE cuts are just massive, there won't be much left flying. It seems KE is relatively cutting more than CX did.


All that remains of KE Europe routes is
CDG 1 daily
AMS 4 weekly
VIE 4 weekly
LHR 4 weekly

It looks very likely that ICN will see at least 10 380s stored. Only 380 routes remaining will be JFK (1 daily) and CDG. All else cut or downgauged. I was surprised to see LAX being cut and downgauged to one 77W...
 
CriticalPoint
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:01 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:22 am

1989worstyear wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
The Coronavirus Pandemic feels like a slow-motion version of the 9/11 attacks. Instead of overnight collapsing air travel demand, air travel in this case will bleed for months with less and less people willing to travel. I would not be surprised to see all the US domestic airlines declare bankruptcy (Ch. 11) by early Fall.


The price of oil is crashing too.....have you taken that into your expert analysis?


This likely will not continue:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... -OPEC.html


It will if countries keep shutting off their borders. No economy? No oil needed.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:06 am

tphuang wrote:
Some airlines are better able to handle this than others. Just taking a look at each major factors I can think of and how it hurts the most and least.

Margin: DL/WN have best margins and AA has far away the lowest.

Debt to equity Ratio: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... panies.asp
WN/B6 the best and UA/AA the worst. NK/G4 are the worst amongst LCC/ULCCs

Most fixed cost: AA is far and away the worst here. Followed by UA/DL. ULCCs are the lowest.

Most able to reduce flights: WN/B6/AS. All 3 are either suffering MAX or A321NEO delays. All can just reduce aircraft utilization to a more reasonable level and do more cabin refresh instead of fliying them. Legacies are going to suffer due to scope clause. I think AA is already running into problems here. Seems like DL is in the best shape amongst legacies. NK/F9 are in big trouble here. A lot of NEO deliveries for a lot of planned growth. NO where to put them. CASM-ex is going to go really high up if they start to reduce flights.

Most to lose from TPAC flights: UA/DL. AA next and then HA. Others not affected.

Most to lose from TATL flights. DL and UA since they are stronger in continental Europe. AA next. Others not affected other than losing some feed. WN in best shape here.

Most of lose from corporate spending going to 0: DL and UA again brag about the corporate travel performance. AA next. ULCCs least affected.

Most to lose from change fees: ULCCs lose most here since they are not going to be able to drop the change fees. WN least affected since they never have it.

Most to gain from lower fuel prices: ULCCs since more of their cost come from fuel than other airlines. WN doesn't gain as much here because they hedge aggressively. And then DL also hedge quite a bit.

Most to lose from added capacity to leisure routes: Since legacies are dumping widebody capacity to Florida/LAS from large population centers. ULCCs get hurt the most here. I assume the legacies have least to lose here.

Just to show how much airlines are discounting to get people to fly leisure. Here is NYC to MCO for a week from now.
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=/m/0 ... 1;t:f;tt:o
that's $37/38 for ULCCs, $49 for UA and $79 across JFK

This is really not normal.

Anyways, looking from above. It's pretty obvious to me AA is in the most trouble here. They are going to have to cut some under performing stuff fast. Legacies as a whole are going to have a hard time with no TATL demand, minimal corporate travel and less flexibility in just grounding aircraft due to scope clause. To me, WN seems like they are the least likely to suffer here. All they need to is cut their schedule to a more reasonable version for their existing aircraft fleet. Instead of running them 12 hours a day, maybe 10 hours a day would be sufficient. NK with its aggressive expansion plans will be in a lot of trouble to from having a lot of new aircraft and no place to put them.


Seems like Wall Street agrees with your analysis. AA stock (ticker: AAL) is down the most.
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 105
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:12 am

Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Some airlines are better able to handle this than others. Just taking a look at each major factors I can think of and how it hurts the most and least.

Margin: DL/WN have best margins and AA has far away the lowest.

Debt to equity Ratio: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... panies.asp
WN/B6 the best and UA/AA the worst. NK/G4 are the worst amongst LCC/ULCCs

Most fixed cost: AA is far and away the worst here. Followed by UA/DL. ULCCs are the lowest.

Most able to reduce flights: WN/B6/AS. All 3 are either suffering MAX or A321NEO delays. All can just reduce aircraft utilization to a more reasonable level and do more cabin refresh instead of fliying them. Legacies are going to suffer due to scope clause. I think AA is already running into problems here. Seems like DL is in the best shape amongst legacies. NK/F9 are in big trouble here. A lot of NEO deliveries for a lot of planned growth. NO where to put them. CASM-ex is going to go really high up if they start to reduce flights.

Most to lose from TPAC flights: UA/DL. AA next and then HA. Others not affected.

Most to lose from TATL flights. DL and UA since they are stronger in continental Europe. AA next. Others not affected other than losing some feed. WN in best shape here.

Most of lose from corporate spending going to 0: DL and UA again brag about the corporate travel performance. AA next. ULCCs least affected.

Most to lose from change fees: ULCCs lose most here since they are not going to be able to drop the change fees. WN least affected since they never have it.

Most to gain from lower fuel prices: ULCCs since more of their cost come from fuel than other airlines. WN doesn't gain as much here because they hedge aggressively. And then DL also hedge quite a bit.

Most to lose from added capacity to leisure routes: Since legacies are dumping widebody capacity to Florida/LAS from large population centers. ULCCs get hurt the most here. I assume the legacies have least to lose here.

Just to show how much airlines are discounting to get people to fly leisure. Here is NYC to MCO for a week from now.
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=/m/0 ... 1;t:f;tt:o
that's $37/38 for ULCCs, $49 for UA and $79 across JFK

This is really not normal.

Anyways, looking from above. It's pretty obvious to me AA is in the most trouble here. They are going to have to cut some under performing stuff fast. Legacies as a whole are going to have a hard time with no TATL demand, minimal corporate travel and less flexibility in just grounding aircraft due to scope clause. To me, WN seems like they are the least likely to suffer here. All they need to is cut their schedule to a more reasonable version for their existing aircraft fleet. Instead of running them 12 hours a day, maybe 10 hours a day would be sufficient. NK with its aggressive expansion plans will be in a lot of trouble to from having a lot of new aircraft and no place to put them.


Seems like Wall Street agrees with your analysis. AA stock (ticker: AAL) is down the most.


Same reason I said earlier AA is most likely to post a loss if this continued all year. Call me crazy but I would guess DL still finds a way to post closer to 1 bill profit and UAL maybe 300-600 mill
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:18 am

I want to clarify my post #180. I don't expect AA or other airlines to vanish. However, I think it is conceivable that AA will (ab-)use the Coronavirus crisis to apply for Chapter 11 reorganization and slash salaries and benefits of AA personnel.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2254
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:44 am

AS announced a sale today...$99 o/w from the west coast to Hawaii....lowest fares that I can ever remember to the islands. Advance bookings must be horrible.
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 105
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:02 am

hiflyeras wrote:
AS announced a sale today...$99 o/w from the west coast to Hawaii....lowest fares that I can ever remember to the islands. Advance bookings must be horrible.


Me thinks the fact this whole thing is hitting during maybe the lowest travel time of the entire year (minus the spring break stuff to CUN/TPA/FLL) is making the optics of this thing worse. I don't think if this hit on June 4th vs March 4th we would see families axing all their summer vacations and of course business travel and trade show travel decreases in summer as well. This is really hitting at a time where the optics appear really bad.
 
acomp
Posts: 32
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:11 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:12 am

PixelFlight wrote:
indcwby wrote:
Qatar Airways Marketing their cleanliness of their aircraft in response to Coronavirus scare.

https://twitter.com/qatarairways/status ... 79809?s=20

Nice cabin cleaning, ok.
But nothing about all the air conditioner system...
Did there even replace the main filters ?


Unfortunately, a woman on flight QR908 (DOH-SYD) last week was confirmed as the sixth case of coronavirus in NSW, Australia.
 
Adipocere
Posts: 323
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:35 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:16 am

CairnterriAIR wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
The Coronavirus Pandemic feels like a slow-motion version of the 9/11 attacks. Instead of overnight collapsing air travel demand, air travel in this case will bleed for months with less and less people willing to travel. I would not be surprised to see all the US domestic airlines declare bankruptcy (Ch. 11) by early Fall.


That’s possible if the US government declares a nationwide curfew and shuts down all airspace, all interstate and roads to everyone but emergency and military personnel, to wait out the pandemic.


Do you honestly think that is actually going to happen???? Realistic thinking please.


No of course not. I was just trying to meet an earlier poster at a point where I thought the US3 would end by fall. I certainly don’t think it’s likely.

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