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acomp
Posts: 32
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:11 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:23 am

ANA and JAL announced the change of Japan domestic service from 3/6 to 3/12.


ANA:
Tokyo Haneda (HND) <-> Sapporo (CTS) 17 -> 12 ~ 13 flights per day.
Tokyo Haneda (HND) <-> Osaka (ITM) 15 -> 13~14 flights per day.
Tokyo Haneda (HND) <-> Fukuoka(FUK) 18 -> 15~16 flights per day.
and more...

JAL has cancelled 352 domestic flights from 3/6 to 3/12.
 
716131
Posts: 892
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:51 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:57 am

acomp wrote:
ANA and JAL announced the change of Japan domestic service from 3/6 to 3/12.


ANA:
Tokyo Haneda (HND) <-> Sapporo (CTS) 17 -> 12 ~ 13 flights per day.
Tokyo Haneda (HND) <-> Osaka (ITM) 15 -> 13~14 flights per day.
Tokyo Haneda (HND) <-> Fukuoka(FUK) 18 -> 15~16 flights per day.
and more...

JAL has cancelled 352 domestic flights from 3/6 to 3/12.

Seems like BC and others are expected to revised their domestic schedules soon.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5758
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:03 am

hiflyeras wrote:
AS announced a sale today...$99 o/w from the west coast to Hawaii....lowest fares that I can ever remember to the islands. Advance bookings must be horrible.


The difference with a major economic crash is that at the moment airlines could give tickets for free and people will not fly either. I see the same in Europe. Major European carriers (BA, Iberia, Air France, Lufthansa, etc.) are giving away tickets between major capitals for immediate travel for 40 or 50 EUR.

I read that some Ryanair flights had no-show rates of around 50%, which makes sense. Everybody I know around me has stopped flying, whether it is for work or pleasure.

If two months ago we knew the amount of cancellations and collapse in demand for air travel worldwide, we would have thought the world had fallen apart.
 
Asiaflyer
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Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:50 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:53 am

I find it selfish and irresponsible by airlines to encourage travel by dumping prices. Travel should now be limited to what only is absolute neccessary.
The company I work for has banned all international business travel since one week ago.

The only way to stop the virus to further spread and cause a pandemic situation is stop all travel. It will hurt airlines and hotels like crazy but the cost for goverments supporting airlines would be very small comparing to the cost of a serious pandemic.
 
SeoulIncheon
Posts: 101
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:52 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:29 am

Korean LCC Jejuair acquired another Korean LCC Eastar Jet. The shares (51.2% of Eastar) were originally valued at KRW 69.5 billion (approx USD 52.8 million) when MOU was signed but the price was lowered to KRW 54.5 billion (approx USD 45.5 million) due to the coronavirus outbreak. That is close to 15 percent price adjustment - which is not common when valuation is agreed upon MOU signing. It shows how airlines view coronavirus outbreak...
https://www.ifn.news/posts/jeju-air-acq ... astar-jet/
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:48 am

With all these flu cancellations could this destroy the B777X program. It seems to me that airlines want to be able to quickly make changes on even their most reliable trunk routes, hence they would prefer smaller jets.
 
theaviator380
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Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:58 am

I am cancelling my US holiday in early part of Apr (as I don't want to risk it with my young kids) but earliest opportunity I have is in October....any educated guess whether situation will improve by then and won't be a big risk? I can understand and imagine, this virus is going to stay for a while and perhaps forever but mad scenes we have at the min doesn't give me confidence to travel with kids.
 
RvA
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:08 am

It looks poor for the months ahead for all airlines. Painful.

https://www2.arccorp.com/articles-trend ... irus-data/
 
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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:09 am

theaviator380 wrote:
I am cancelling my US holiday in early part of Apr (as I don't want to risk it with my young kids) but earliest opportunity I have is in October....any educated guess whether situation will improve by then and won't be a big risk? I can understand and imagine, this virus is going to stay for a while and perhaps forever but mad scenes we have at the min doesn't give me confidence to travel with kids.


I’ve just cancelled my mid-April trip to China (I was going on my own and would probably have still gone but Government advice is to not travel to China so I would invalidate my travel insurance if I went). I’m currently thinking about USA at the same time, but will wait two to three weeks before deciding definitely.

I’m certainly not suggesting you put your kids at risk, but if they attend school that’s probably a bigger risk. That said, the evidence suggests infants and kids up through teenagers are the least affected by it, with some infected but showing absolutely no symptoms.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
myki
Posts: 213
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:10 am

theaviator380 wrote:
I am cancelling my US holiday in early part of Apr (as I don't want to risk it with my young kids) but earliest opportunity I have is in October....any educated guess whether situation will improve by then and won't be a big risk? I can understand and imagine, this virus is going to stay for a while and perhaps forever but mad scenes we have at the min doesn't give me confidence to travel with kids.

I'd be asking that of medical professionals, not avgeeks :duck:
 
asdf
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:13 am

theaviator380 wrote:
...any educated guess whether situation will improve by then and won't be a big risk? ...


there are two possible developments:
A.) the summer will give us break because the higher UV kills a lot of the viruses, the higher temperatures reduce the timespan the virus can stay infective on surfaces, and the people have a more robust immunsystem. it will restart in October.
B.) it will continue. that will bring us to a full worldwide coverage within 14-18 months.
 
curlyheadboy
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:19 am

The company I work for (big medical devices manufacturer) has banned all international travel across the world as for today. For myself alone this is over 100 flights per year. I can see this hurting the airline industry pretty bad, I'm wondering whether (depending on how long the emergency lasts) we will see a sort of "unnatural selection" with governments around the world providing financial support to some carriers that serve national interests while leaving the non-strategic ones by themselves...
If God had wanted men to fly he would have given them more money...
 
tphuang
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:41 am

LNCS0930 wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
AS announced a sale today...$99 o/w from the west coast to Hawaii....lowest fares that I can ever remember to the islands. Advance bookings must be horrible.


Me thinks the fact this whole thing is hitting during maybe the lowest travel time of the entire year (minus the spring break stuff to CUN/TPA/FLL) is making the optics of this thing worse. I don't think if this hit on June 4th vs March 4th we would see families axing all their summer vacations and of course business travel and trade show travel decreases in summer as well. This is really hitting at a time where the optics appear really bad.


on that front.

NYC-CUN for tomorrow on Delta (same for today)
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=/m/0 ... 1;t:f;tt:o
all $166. That's terrible for walk up fares. And if you check NYC to Carribeans, this types of fare sales are open everywhere for DL
Walk up fare on NYC-AUA
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=/m/0 ... 1;t:f;tt:o
all $139. That's terrible. And this is all throughout March.

I started noticing 3 or 4 days ago these massive sales from NYC to islands. These leisure routes within North America are the types that airlines could plausibly be attracted to heavy discounts. I don't similar discounting on business routes. They probably figure you either are allowed to travel or not.

DL is as screwed as all other airlines. They are not going to make large profit this year. They are just going to be able to hold off large cuts longer because they are in better position to handle short/medium term disruptions.
 
theaviator380
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:05 pm

Thanks scbriml, myki and asdf, appreciated.

It 's sensible to cancel April as it stands then....October remains the risk...but I have no choice than taking a chance and book it with added protection to my tickets. The issue is the company I have booked it from gives me refund which I can only use for other flights through them....dam ! I knew this obviously when I booked the tickets (Autumn 2019) but then who knew this shit will happen ...
 
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downtown273
Posts: 322
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:23 pm

Flybe [...] has warned the government that it could collapse within days after a slump in bookings triggered by the coronavirus.

https://news.sky.com/story/regional-air ... e-11949393
 
UAL777UK
Posts: 2368
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2005 1:16 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:26 pm

downtown273 wrote:
Flybe [...] has warned the government that it could collapse within days after a slump in bookings triggered by the coronavirus.

https://news.sky.com/story/regional-air ... e-11949393


Not good. They were on life support as it was. This really could be the end. :(
 
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qf789
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:35 pm

Lufthansa to ground 150 aircraft due to Coronavirus, about 20% of the group fleet

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-lufth ... KKBN20R228
Forum Moderator
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3520
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:40 pm

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... pril-2020/

Definitely not good for Starlux as they're now down to a single daily flight. They couldn't pick a worse time to start the airline :(.

acomp wrote:
ANA and JAL announced the change of Japan domestic service from 3/6 to 3/12.


ANA:
Tokyo Haneda (HND) <-> Sapporo (CTS) 17 -> 12 ~ 13 flights per day.
Tokyo Haneda (HND) <-> Osaka (ITM) 15 -> 13~14 flights per day.
Tokyo Haneda (HND) <-> Fukuoka(FUK) 18 -> 15~16 flights per day.
and more...

JAL has cancelled 352 domestic flights from 3/6 to 3/12.


Full list:
ANA: https://www.ana.co.jp/en/jp/notice/notice_011.html
JAL: https://www.jal.co.jp/jp/en/info/2020/d ... index.html

Basically both are reducing frequencies on HND-CTS/FUK by ~4-5 daily flights, HND-ITM by 1-2 flights.

JAL is cancelling more flights than ANA as they basically reduced the number of daily flights to all the smaller airports in Japan by 1 (out of 6-7).
 
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qf789
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:40 pm

Etihad A388 A6-APE has returned to AUH after a rescue flight to WUH

https://twitter.com/a380fanclub/status/ ... 25472?s=21
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lightsaber
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:47 pm

qf789 wrote:
Lufthansa to ground 150 aircraft due to Coronavirus, about 20% of the group fleet

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-lufth ... KKBN20R228

I saw that news and just went wow.

Has anyone summarised the grounded aircraft? Farnborough might look bleak this year.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:55 pm

lightsaber wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Lufthansa to ground 150 aircraft due to Coronavirus, about 20% of the group fleet

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-lufth ... KKBN20R228

I saw that news and just went wow.

Has anyone summarised the grounded aircraft? Farnborough might look bleak this year.

Lightsaber


I'm starting to wonder if Farnborough will happen at all. Tradeshows are just a bad idea right now. Many Italians were infected at recent tradeshows in Italy.
Might as well postpone it until fall.

LH's 150 grounded aircraft is big but we're only getting started IMO.
This can escalate very quickly.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:27 pm

qf789 wrote:
Lufthansa to ground 150 aircraft due to Coronavirus, about 20% of the group fleet

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-lufth ... KKBN20R228


Is this a permanent grounding?
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
Ishrion
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:37 pm

Delta announces Japan reductions and suspensions:

https://news.delta.com/delta-reduces-ja ... e-covid-19
 
Aither
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:44 pm

Looking at the statistics it really looks like the virus is not spreading in hot places.
So I've booked cheap flight tickets now for the summer. Because when people will realize travelling is safe (maybe only during summer) the yields this summer will be extraordinary high.
The revenue management guys in the airlines should be careful with their algorithms when setting the prices for this summer. It may not be a good idea to book too many seats now.
Never trust the obvious
 
panamair
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:44 pm

qf789 wrote:
Lufthansa to ground 150 aircraft due to Coronavirus, about 20% of the group fleet

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-lufth ... KKBN20R228


Looks like it will be 25 long-haul and 125 short and medium-haul aircraft across the LH Group.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200304/luftha ... oronavirus
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:47 pm

https://news.delta.com/delta-reduces-ja ... e-covid-19

"Delta reduces Japan flight schedule due to COVID-19 "

Image

"The airline’s seasonal summer service between Seattle and Osaka will be suspended for the summer of 2020, with a planned return in summer 2021. Delta will continue to serve Osaka from Honolulu."
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
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CPS001
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:57 pm

 
art
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:06 pm

According to LBC UK radio news, FlyBe is in trouble due to a drop in bookings.

Also reported on BBC website: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51733405

One thing the UK government could to help airlines through the crisis would be immediately to suspend Air Passenger Duty.
Last edited by art on Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:27 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:11 pm

Loads from NY to the Islands went off a cliff starting Monday from what I could see
 
tphuang
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:13 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
https://news.delta.com/delta-reduces-japan-flight-schedule-due-covid-19

"Delta reduces Japan flight schedule due to COVID-19 "

Image

"The airline’s seasonal summer service between Seattle and Osaka will be suspended for the summer of 2020, with a planned return in summer 2021. Delta will continue to serve Osaka from Honolulu."


Amazing to me it has taken them this long to make the cuts. Q1 isn't going to look good for them.

Also, if anyone needed a clue on how well Seattle to Osaka has been doing, this is it.
 
tphuang
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:15 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Loads from NY to the Islands went off a cliff starting Monday from what I could see

Yep, delta and JetBlue are doing massive fare sales for all of march. Cuts are coming soon.

As I said elsewhere, delta will be out on JFK kin before this is over.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:18 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Nobody believed me a month ago (or more than that) that this will bad.

You are not alone...
 
bennett123
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:18 pm

The problems that Flybe faces are nothing new and have little to do with the Coronavirus.
 
minilinde
Posts: 199
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:01 pm

Lufthansa will ground 125 shorthaul and 25 long haul aircrafts

Source: https://www.investing.com/news/stock-ma ... us-2100942
Types flown: A318, A319, A320, A321, A32N, A333, A343, A359, A380, AT42, AT72, B717, B733, B735, B736, B737, B738, B739, B744, B748, B763, B772, B773, B788, B789, C550, CRJ2, CRJ9, DH4D, F50, ERJ190, MD80s/90, RJ100
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 105
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:12 pm

Evidently Trump meeting with "all" the CEOs as we speak. Ed is evidently only one not there according to FoxNews. I think I heard that one once prior
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 105
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:14 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
https://news.delta.com/delta-reduces-japan-flight-schedule-due-covid-19

"Delta reduces Japan flight schedule due to COVID-19 "

Image

"The airline’s seasonal summer service between Seattle and Osaka will be suspended for the summer of 2020, with a planned return in summer 2021. Delta will continue to serve Osaka from Honolulu."


Amazing to me it has taken them this long to make the cuts. Q1 isn't going to look good for them.

Also, if anyone needed a clue on how well Seattle to Osaka has been doing, this is it.


We can come back in 45 days but I'll bet you now they probably still turn a 300 or 400 mill profit in Q1. Remember that up until 10 days ago this really was not having any noticeable effect on carriers outside of China routes cutting.
 
onwFan
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:25 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
https://news.delta.com/delta-reduces-japan-flight-schedule-due-covid-19

"Delta reduces Japan flight schedule due to COVID-19 "

Image

"The airline’s seasonal summer service between Seattle and Osaka will be suspended for the summer of 2020, with a planned return in summer 2021. Delta will continue to serve Osaka from Honolulu."


Amazing to me it has taken them this long to make the cuts. Q1 isn't going to look good for them.

Also, if anyone needed a clue on how well Seattle to Osaka has been doing, this is it.

Indeed... And PDX... and MSP.
 
Western727
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:25 pm

The big annual SXSW conference is still set to start on 13 March, in spite of Facebook and Twitter pulling out: https://www.sxsw.com/

...and some locals here in AUS are raising a stink about the status quo, on top of those planning to attend. I can't help but wonder if it's financially motivated on the part of the planning committee.
Jack @ AUS
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:41 pm

We do have to ask if this thing (Covid19) could cause the re-nationalization of much of the airline industry in the free-market world.

Do state subsidies, and government backed loans accounts as nationalization in some way and anti-competitive for some countries values?
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
smartplane
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:58 pm

asdf wrote:
theaviator380 wrote:
...any educated guess whether situation will improve by then and won't be a big risk? ...


there are two possible developments:
A.) the summer will give us break because the higher UV kills a lot of the viruses, the higher temperatures reduce the timespan the virus can stay infective on surfaces, and the people have a more robust immunsystem. it will restart in October.
B.) it will continue. that will bring us to a full worldwide coverage within 14-18 months.

The Northern Hemisphere Summer will be the Southern Hemisphere's Winter, so not sure there will be any global let up yet.

A supposedly knowledgeable medical professional advised all vaccines take time, but this one is especially challenging. The antibody efficacy rate is very low in early trials. Repeatability is low too, meaning resistance today doesn't guarantee resistance in the future. Seems to unwind the body's resistance to other viruses for which resistance previously existed. A severe infection can also result in collateral body damage which is permanent.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:01 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
We do have to ask if this thing (Covid19) could cause the re-nationalization of much of the airline industry in the free-market world.

Do state subsidies, and government backed loans accounts as nationalization in some way and anti-competitive for some countries values?


Perhaps but not for US carriers. I can bet you there won't be any bailouts or subsides for them, they'll be told deal with it for a year or two and find your way out
 
smartplane
Posts: 1508
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:06 pm

theaviator380 wrote:
Thanks scbriml, myki and asdf, appreciated.

It 's sensible to cancel April as it stands then....October remains the risk...but I have no choice than taking a chance and book it with added protection to my tickets. The issue is the company I have booked it from gives me refund which I can only use for other flights through them....dam ! I knew this obviously when I booked the tickets (Autumn 2019) but then who knew this shit will happen ...

What added protection can you get on your tickets? The travel insurance industry is also under pressure. Even MasterCard and Visa are experiencing reduced volumes, interest and fees.
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:05 pm

United to cut international flights by 20 percent and domestic by 10 percent. They will also park dozens of widebodies. I imagine there will be furloughs coming very soon for some pilots and flight attendants

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/united- ... break.html
 
United1
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:10 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
United to cut international flights by 20 percent and domestic by 10 percent. They will also park dozens of widebodies. I imagine there will be furloughs coming very soon for some pilots and flight attendants

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/united- ... break.html


Dozens of widebodies is a bit of an exaggeration but they do plan on temporarily parking some of the fleet.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:20 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
United to cut international flights by 20 percent and domestic by 10 percent. They will also park dozens of widebodies. I imagine there will be furloughs coming very soon for some pilots and flight attendants

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/united- ... break.html


Where's the guy crowing that UA domestic demand was just fine? Maybe it was - but now it isn't.

The domestic schedule will be pared 10% in April and international flying will be chopped 20%, United said in a message to employees. Similar reductions will probably be necessary for May, Chief Executive Oscar Munoz and President Scott Kirby said Wednesday in the memo.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... oronavirus
Last edited by MIflyer12 on Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:24 pm

Keep an eye on Alaska, their main hub is in Seattle, and demand to SEA has dropped like a rock in the last few days, it is pretty ugly....

Further exacerbating their issues is that they don't have an expansive network like the Big 4, and can't really deploy these aircraft elsewhere in the US.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tphuang
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:27 pm

This is interesting. It seems like UA has been the most proactive at making decisions as soon as possible. Maybe they have been hurt the most? I agree that April is probably the earliest you can make this dramatic kind of cuts. I still think more cuts are coming. All the airlines (with the exception of maybe WN) are going to have to make real cuts and possibly park aircraft in the near future imo. The early you do it, the less losses you will have in Q2 imo. Q1 is already shot. I'm surprised AA hasn't made any changes yet. That should come any days now. OAG this will be fascinating. DL's stubbornes will cost them.

Midwestindy wrote:
Keep an eye on Alaska, their main hub is in Seattle, and demand to SEA has dropped like a rock in the last few days, it is pretty ugly....

Further exacerbating their issues is that they don't have an expansive network like the Big 4, and can't really deploy these aircraft elsewhere in the US.


yeah, that will be an interesting one to watch. Q2 is probably a wipeout for them. At least their balance sheet is good. Those SEA adds for this summer look like a goner. If DL really wants to stick it to AS, it should use this opportunity to keep the capacity out there and just stomach the losses. There is no way AS can go through this without cuts to SEA.
Last edited by tphuang on Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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enilria
Posts: 10254
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:36 pm

tphuang wrote:
This is interesting. It seems like UA has been the most proactive at making decisions as soon as possible. Maybe they have been hurt the most? I agree that April is probably the earliest you can make this dramatic kind of cuts. I still think more cuts are coming. All the airlines (with the exception of maybe WN) are going to have to make real cuts and possibly park aircraft in the near future imo. The early you do it, the less losses you will have in Q2 imo. Q1 is already shot. I'm surprised AA hasn't made any changes yet. That should come any days now. OAG this will be fascinating. DL's stubbornes will cost them.

Midwestindy wrote:
Keep an eye on Alaska, their main hub is in Seattle, and demand to SEA has dropped like a rock in the last few days, it is pretty ugly....

Further exacerbating their issues is that they don't have an expansive network like the Big 4, and can't really deploy these aircraft elsewhere in the US.


yeah, that will be an interesting one to watch. Q2 is probably a wipeout for them. At least their balance sheet is good. Those SEA adds for this summer look like a goner. If DL really wants to stick it to AS, it should use this opportunity to keep the capacity out there and just stomach the losses. There is no way AS can go through this without cuts to SEA.

I should charge for the OAG update this week! (Kidding)

I do not expect domestic stuff to be cut en masse. It may take another week. I just don't know if they can put it together that fast, plus the crew is locked in 40-60 days out or more. It sounds like loads are 40-60% in a lot of markets from what I am hearing anecdotally. If true it is very hard to cut inside a crew bid and be better off paying the crew to sit. Another thing nobody is talking about is that oil is down from $60 to $45 in the last few weeks and will probably fall further if demand wanes with all of this. That makes it even harder to justify parking huge numbers of planes, although LH just did it.

Good points on SEA. But DL would be suicidal to flood it with capacity. They are reacting very slow on this virus, but they still are very responsive to Wall Street. I don't think WN is really even capable of doing a mass reaccom, but I guess they did when the MAX was grounded.
 
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ER757
Posts: 3810
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:45 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Keep an eye on Alaska, their main hub is in Seattle, and demand to SEA has dropped like a rock in the last few days, it is pretty ugly....

Further exacerbating their issues is that they don't have an expansive network like the Big 4, and can't really deploy these aircraft elsewhere in the US.

I should have plenty of room to stretch out on my AS flight SEA/PHX next week. And no problem finding room for my carry on in the overhead bins.....
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 105
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:45 pm

enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
This is interesting. It seems like UA has been the most proactive at making decisions as soon as possible. Maybe they have been hurt the most? I agree that April is probably the earliest you can make this dramatic kind of cuts. I still think more cuts are coming. All the airlines (with the exception of maybe WN) are going to have to make real cuts and possibly park aircraft in the near future imo. The early you do it, the less losses you will have in Q2 imo. Q1 is already shot. I'm surprised AA hasn't made any changes yet. That should come any days now. OAG this will be fascinating. DL's stubbornes will cost them.

Midwestindy wrote:
Keep an eye on Alaska, their main hub is in Seattle, and demand to SEA has dropped like a rock in the last few days, it is pretty ugly....

Further exacerbating their issues is that they don't have an expansive network like the Big 4, and can't really deploy these aircraft elsewhere in the US.



Good points on SEA. But DL would be suicidal to flood it with capacity. They are reacting very slow on this virus, but they still are very responsive to Wall Street. I don't think WN is really even capable of doing a mass reaccom, but I guess they did when the MAX was grounded.


We know that if they have to post them as cancels they'll be reluctant to cut. If you were to go cutting 10% of ATL-SEA-ATL today for 4/1-4/30 does that post as a cancel or just go into the never existed bucket? I'm not sure
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