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1989worstyear
Posts: 887
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:49 pm

TW870 wrote:
enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
This is interesting. It seems like UA has been the most proactive at making decisions as soon as possible. Maybe they have been hurt the most? I agree that April is probably the earliest you can make this dramatic kind of cuts. I still think more cuts are coming. All the airlines (with the exception of maybe WN) are going to have to make real cuts and possibly park aircraft in the near future imo. The early you do it, the less losses you will have in Q2 imo. Q1 is already shot. I'm surprised AA hasn't made any changes yet. That should come any days now. OAG this will be fascinating. DL's stubbornes will cost them.



yeah, that will be an interesting one to watch. Q2 is probably a wipeout for them. At least their balance sheet is good. Those SEA adds for this summer look like a goner. If DL really wants to stick it to AS, it should use this opportunity to keep the capacity out there and just stomach the losses. There is no way AS can go through this without cuts to SEA.

I should charge for the OAG update this week! (Kidding)

I do not expect domestic stuff to be cut en masse. It may take another week. I just don't know if they can put it together that fast, plus the crew is locked in 40-60 days out or more. It sounds like loads are 40-60% in a lot of markets from what I am hearing anecdotally. If true it is very hard to cut inside a crew bid and be better off paying the crew to sit. Another thing nobody is talking about is that oil is down from $60 to $45 in the last few weeks and will probably fall further if demand wanes with all of this. That makes it even harder to justify parking huge numbers of planes, although LH just did it.

Good points on SEA. But DL would be suicidal to flood it with capacity. They are reacting very slow on this virus, but they still are very responsive to Wall Street. I don't think WN is really even capable of doing a mass reaccom, but I guess they did when the MAX was grounded.


Yeah I highly doubt Delta or anyone else will make any long term moves at this time. Once you park airplanes and start furloughing pilots, you create a massive training churn as folks get displaced off higher paying fleets. My guess is that they will reduce average line values to the very minimum, and then build a bunch of "lines" that are at minimum guarantee but that have no flying. Folks can get paid to sit. That way, they can be flexible if there is good news. If things still look ugly in the summer and the disease is expected to pick up in the fall, then they can look at shrinking the operation over the medium term and making more drastic moves - parking the 767-300s or something like that. Also, good point on fuel costs as there is some play there.


Wouldn't they also park the 77E's? I
Last edited by 1989worstyear on Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
joeblow10
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:52 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
kimimm19 wrote:
Does anyone think the airlines might prices to try and stimulate business from those who will still fly? Or is it more likely to go the other way and airlines will try and compensate for losses by hiking prices as the craze spreads to Europe and NA?


Uhhhhh you may want to look at ticket prices right now......

AS is offering $99 fares or below on nearly all of their routes, saw some $20 fares

Just purchased ORD-FLL round trip on AA for $50.......for two weeks from now (Literally peak Spring Break).

Airlines must be bleeding money heavily at this point.....


Not that Frontier doesn’t already go this low - but I’m seeing $26 fares systemwide for huge swaths of March. Definitely wasn’t available before today.
 
YLWbased
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:53 pm

I just booked myself a flight over easter holidays, HKG-IST-OTP on TK (Y) and TAROM (J), round trip tax included USD$314.

YLWbased
Hong Kong is not China. Not better or worse, just different.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:57 pm

eta unknown wrote:
I'm not following this logic- if just about everybody starts laying off pilots (some of hte most expensive employees), which company would pick them up?


Indeed there is a lot of wishful thinking here. A lot of people in this forum works in the aviation industry so they don’t want to accept the grim reality ahead.

It will be way worse than 2008 because there will be no Emirates, Qatar or Asian carriers to hire all those left overs.
 
raylee67
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Re: How DL (and other U.S. carriers) may cut expenses/conserve cash

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:59 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
3. If the whole market goes South, investors will be holding on very tight to their wallets. Another problem is that no one would lend to an airline that isn't making any kind of revenues. In most cases, as we saw in 2008/2009, rating companies will downgrade even the best of companies or countries to junk status rather quickly, making borrowing prohibitive even in a low interest environment.

2008/2009 is a financial/credit crunch. It was the bank doesn't trust each other, hence they stop lending to each other. This time, it's not an issue with the financial industry. The market is now literally awash with cash. You look at the 24-hr repo market and see how calm it is and you will understand. I have explained above clearly, the price of a bond is based on US treasury yield + risk premium. You talked about the risk premium being increased (e.g. rating downgrade), but 10-year UST yield is now at 93bp, which is way lower than what it was a week ago. Risk premium is not going to increase by that much. Not yet anyway. Many institutional investors are now holding on cash (and I mean billions of cash) and looking desperately for something to buy. Only the retail investors are scared and hold tight to their wallets. Institutional investors are not. Or at least they cannot hold tight for long. Because it is their job to invest in something. And that something cannot be cash. Delta has a relatively strong balance sheet now. It will attract bids. I cannot say the same for some other airlines. But for Delta, it's a good time to raise debt.


Waterbomber2 wrote:
4. Buy oil, ok, with what money? As I explained a few posts back, even DL only has 3 billions of cash on their balance sheet and if you check their earnings reports, you will realise that their monthly payroll cost alone is 3 billions... Sell airplanes to save cash? To whom? All airlines will be in the same boat.

I am saying oil futures, not oil. You only need to put up collateral to execute a future contracts. And the collateral doesn't need to be cash. Granted, this is more for "planning for the good days in future" than surviving now, but if they expect to survive, then this is something that can be considered.
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 359/51 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
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FCAFLYBOY
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:00 pm

Big spike in UK confirmed numbers today, some suggesting that all flights from Italy to the UK should be suspended for a period of time as many UK cases are linked to travel to or travellers returning from Italy...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... 0-11950018
 
theaviator380
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:02 pm

kimimm19 wrote:
Does anyone think the airlines might prices to try and stimulate business from those who will still fly? Or is it more likely to go the other way and airlines will try and compensate for losses by hiking prices as the craze spreads to Europe and NA?


If you try to do dummy booking for various destinations and on various dates you will understand. I don't belong to this profession but I think most of the airlines will be trying to flog tickets for cheaper price to attract customers....and those who are willing to take risk will make most of it....(there are loads who are still not fazed by this virus and would continue their holidays etc.)
 
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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:11 pm

kimimm19 wrote:
Does anyone think the airlines might prices to try and stimulate business from those who will still fly? Or is it more likely to go the other way and airlines will try and compensate for losses by hiking prices as the craze spreads to Europe and NA?


If people are cancelling and/or not booking, airlines hiking their prices is not going to entice anyone to fly. If there's less demand, prices will drop.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Kilopond
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:12 pm

The Aircraft Interiors Expo has been postponed from end of March to the second half of the year.

https://www.aircraftinteriorsexpo.com/
 
TW870
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:22 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
TW870 wrote:
enilria wrote:
I should charge for the OAG update this week! (Kidding)

I do not expect domestic stuff to be cut en masse. It may take another week. I just don't know if they can put it together that fast, plus the crew is locked in 40-60 days out or more. It sounds like loads are 40-60% in a lot of markets from what I am hearing anecdotally. If true it is very hard to cut inside a crew bid and be better off paying the crew to sit. Another thing nobody is talking about is that oil is down from $60 to $45 in the last few weeks and will probably fall further if demand wanes with all of this. That makes it even harder to justify parking huge numbers of planes, although LH just did it.

Good points on SEA. But DL would be suicidal to flood it with capacity. They are reacting very slow on this virus, but they still are very responsive to Wall Street. I don't think WN is really even capable of doing a mass reaccom, but I guess they did when the MAX was grounded.


Yeah I highly doubt Delta or anyone else will make any long term moves at this time. Once you park airplanes and start furloughing pilots, you create a massive training churn as folks get displaced off higher paying fleets. My guess is that they will reduce average line values to the very minimum, and then build a bunch of "lines" that are at minimum guarantee but that have no flying. Folks can get paid to sit. That way, they can be flexible if there is good news. If things still look ugly in the summer and the disease is expected to pick up in the fall, then they can look at shrinking the operation over the medium term and making more drastic moves - parking the 767-300s or something like that. Also, good point on fuel costs as there is some play there.


Wouldn't they also park the 77E's? I


Way way way way too early to speculate about anything like that. Right now you have the potential for a pandemic and reduced bookings. Delta is flush with cash, and can easily afford to sit tight, and hope that the warm summer months give time for effective prophylaxis for the disease - and then a vaccine - to resolve the situation. In the mean time, all widebody fleets will see a huge amount of slack, and that slack will be managed on a month-by-month basis. No decisions about long term changes will come until there is a clear picture of what is happening.
 
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BroadwayLimited
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:31 pm

The second or third day of every month, Delta always gives a passenger summary of the previous month. Have not seen one for February. If they did one for February, I missed it.
Signed up for Delta and Eastern Frequent Flyer Programs August 30, 1981.
 
kimimm19
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:36 pm

theaviator380 wrote:
kimimm19 wrote:
Does anyone think the airlines might prices to try and stimulate business from those who will still fly? Or is it more likely to go the other way and airlines will try and compensate for losses by hiking prices as the craze spreads to Europe and NA?


If you try to do dummy booking for various destinations and on various dates you will understand. I don't belong to this profession but I think most of the airlines will be trying to flog tickets for cheaper price to attract customers....and those who are willing to take risk will make most of it....(there are loads who are still not fazed by this virus and would continue their holidays etc.)



Transatlantic flights between the UK and Phx for instance are 50% higher than they have been for the past few months actually...
 
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Continental767
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:01 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
TW870 wrote:
enilria wrote:
I should charge for the OAG update this week! (Kidding)

I do not expect domestic stuff to be cut en masse. It may take another week. I just don't know if they can put it together that fast, plus the crew is locked in 40-60 days out or more. It sounds like loads are 40-60% in a lot of markets from what I am hearing anecdotally. If true it is very hard to cut inside a crew bid and be better off paying the crew to sit. Another thing nobody is talking about is that oil is down from $60 to $45 in the last few weeks and will probably fall further if demand wanes with all of this. That makes it even harder to justify parking huge numbers of planes, although LH just did it.

Good points on SEA. But DL would be suicidal to flood it with capacity. They are reacting very slow on this virus, but they still are very responsive to Wall Street. I don't think WN is really even capable of doing a mass reaccom, but I guess they did when the MAX was grounded.


Yeah I highly doubt Delta or anyone else will make any long term moves at this time. Once you park airplanes and start furloughing pilots, you create a massive training churn as folks get displaced off higher paying fleets. My guess is that they will reduce average line values to the very minimum, and then build a bunch of "lines" that are at minimum guarantee but that have no flying. Folks can get paid to sit. That way, they can be flexible if there is good news. If things still look ugly in the summer and the disease is expected to pick up in the fall, then they can look at shrinking the operation over the medium term and making more drastic moves - parking the 767-300s or something like that. Also, good point on fuel costs as there is some play there.


Wouldn't they also park the 77E's? I


DL just spent millions to completely strip the 777s and redo every aspect of the interior. They aren’t going anywhere. If this thing gets much worse, I’d bank on the oldest 767s + A330s being temporarily parked, and orders deferred.
Indianapolis.
 
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enilria
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:08 pm

Continental767 wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
TW870 wrote:

Yeah I highly doubt Delta or anyone else will make any long term moves at this time. Once you park airplanes and start furloughing pilots, you create a massive training churn as folks get displaced off higher paying fleets. My guess is that they will reduce average line values to the very minimum, and then build a bunch of "lines" that are at minimum guarantee but that have no flying. Folks can get paid to sit. That way, they can be flexible if there is good news. If things still look ugly in the summer and the disease is expected to pick up in the fall, then they can look at shrinking the operation over the medium term and making more drastic moves - parking the 767-300s or something like that. Also, good point on fuel costs as there is some play there.


Wouldn't they also park the 77E's? I


DL just spent millions to completely strip the 777s and redo every aspect of the interior. They aren’t going anywhere. If this thing gets much worse, I’d bank on the oldest 767s + A330s being temporarily parked, and orders deferred.

I think that makes sense. I think the policy of moving the intl planes to domestic was a bad idea from the start. Everybody needs to just park them. Which type I don't care, but dumping huge planes into domestic markets with weak demand is a death sentence.
 
32andBelow
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:15 pm

enilria wrote:
Continental767 wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:

Wouldn't they also park the 77E's? I


DL just spent millions to completely strip the 777s and redo every aspect of the interior. They aren’t going anywhere. If this thing gets much worse, I’d bank on the oldest 767s + A330s being temporarily parked, and orders deferred.

I think that makes sense. I think the policy of moving the intl planes to domestic was a bad idea from the start. Everybody needs to just park them. Which type I don't care, but dumping huge planes into domestic markets with weak demand is a death sentence.

It’s cheaper just flying all the planes less. It doesn’t make sense to just park them unless they are going to be parked for more than a month or two. Planes like to fly. They need added maint just to sit.
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:20 pm

FCAFLYBOY wrote:
Big spike in UK confirmed numbers today, some suggesting that all flights from Italy to the UK should be suspended for a period of time as many UK cases are linked to travel to or travellers returning from Italy...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... 0-11950018

I’m a little surprised that some airlines are still flying into Italy at all, in particular Rome.
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enilria
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:21 pm

32andBelow wrote:
enilria wrote:
Continental767 wrote:

DL just spent millions to completely strip the 777s and redo every aspect of the interior. They aren’t going anywhere. If this thing gets much worse, I’d bank on the oldest 767s + A330s being temporarily parked, and orders deferred.

I think that makes sense. I think the policy of moving the intl planes to domestic was a bad idea from the start. Everybody needs to just park them. Which type I don't care, but dumping huge planes into domestic markets with weak demand is a death sentence.

It’s cheaper just flying all the planes less. It doesn’t make sense to just park them unless they are going to be parked for more than a month or two. Planes like to fly. They need added maint just to sit.

I get that, but swapping a narrow on XXX-MCO to a widebody with no bookings coming in to keep the planes flying will lose far more money.
 
TW870
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:33 pm

enilria wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
enilria wrote:
I think that makes sense. I think the policy of moving the intl planes to domestic was a bad idea from the start. Everybody needs to just park them. Which type I don't care, but dumping huge planes into domestic markets with weak demand is a death sentence.

It’s cheaper just flying all the planes less. It doesn’t make sense to just park them unless they are going to be parked for more than a month or two. Planes like to fly. They need added maint just to sit.

I get that, but swapping a narrow on XXX-MCO to a widebody with no bookings coming in to keep the planes flying will lose far more money.


I agree that it is unlikely that they are going to build a bunch of domestic turns onto widebody rotations. My guess is they will just keep a bunch of hot spares, which is exactly what they are doing now. According to the widebody thread, I think they only scheduled 116 out of 150-some widebodies last week. They can just keep going down, having all the airplanes do longer sits at hubs between trips. The one plus is there will be very few tech-related or crew-related cancellations. I don't think you'll only see actual mothballing out in the desert unless we go into the fall with no prophylaxis, no vaccine on the horizon, and a large outbreak - a worst-case type scenario that we all hope doesn't happen.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:07 pm

TAP Portugal to cancel around 1,000 flights over March and April

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20S247

Portugal's TAP cancels 1,000 flights in March-April as coronavirus hits demand
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:37 pm

FCAFLYBOY wrote:
Big spike in UK confirmed numbers today, some suggesting that all flights from Italy to the UK should be suspended for a period of time as many UK cases are linked to travel to or travellers returning from Italy...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... 0-11950018


You wonder if there is some point where eveything is grounded out of the US except domestics/Carib/Mex/Canada
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:44 pm

enilria wrote:
Continental767 wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:

Wouldn't they also park the 77E's? I


DL just spent millions to completely strip the 777s and redo every aspect of the interior. They aren’t going anywhere. If this thing gets much worse, I’d bank on the oldest 767s + A330s being temporarily parked, and orders deferred.

I think that makes sense. I think the policy of moving the intl planes to domestic was a bad idea from the start. Everybody needs to just park them. Which type I don't care, but dumping huge planes into domestic markets with weak demand is a death sentence.


Hindsight is 20/20, I don't think it was necessarily a bad idea from the start.

The int'l planes flying domestic was supposed to just be a temporary band-aid for the China cuts. As you know, if you park that plane and don't have it fly, you are just eating a significant junk of the cost, especially in this scenario.

I spoke to some of the RM & Network Planning folks when it initially broke out, and generalizing a bit, the discussion was basically; Given Spring Break, they figured that they would still be able to get some close-in bookings on some high traffic routes & the cost hit would be less significant than if they decided to idle aircraft or send them to MX. MCO, LAS, and maybe a couple others were the only feasible options for redeploying those aircraft with such short notice, due to airport constraints and things like that.

What they didn't account for was: 1. The drop in domestic travel, 2. The fact all the US3 would have to cancel as much International flying that they have, leaving too much capacity on some of these routes, 3. Corporate Bookings disappearing so rapidly
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:17 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
enilria wrote:
Continental767 wrote:

DL just spent millions to completely strip the 777s and redo every aspect of the interior. They aren’t going anywhere. If this thing gets much worse, I’d bank on the oldest 767s + A330s being temporarily parked, and orders deferred.

I think that makes sense. I think the policy of moving the intl planes to domestic was a bad idea from the start. Everybody needs to just park them. Which type I don't care, but dumping huge planes into domestic markets with weak demand is a death sentence.


Hindsight is 20/20, I don't think it was necessarily a bad idea from the start.

The int'l planes flying domestic was supposed to just be a temporary band-aid for the China cuts. As you know, if you park that plane and don't have it fly, you are just eating a significant junk of the cost, especially in this scenario.

I spoke to some of the RM & Network Planning folks when it initially broke out, and generalizing a bit, the discussion was basically; Given Spring Break, they figured that they would still be able to get some close-in bookings on some high traffic routes & the cost hit would be less significant than if they decided to idle aircraft or send them to MX. MCO, LAS, and maybe a couple others were the only feasible options for redeploying those aircraft with such short notice, due to airport constraints and things like that.

What they didn't account for was: 1. The drop in domestic travel, 2. The fact all the US3 would have to cancel as much International flying that they have, leaving too much capacity on some of these routes, 3. Corporate Bookings disappearing so rapidly


I’m surprised they didn’t imagine once the media lost their you know what and we had several hundred cases in the US those 3 things wouldn’t happen.
 
Wayfarer515
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:44 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
I'm not following this logic- if just about everybody starts laying off pilots (some of hte most expensive employees), which company would pick them up?


Indeed there is a lot of wishful thinking here. A lot of people in this forum works in the aviation industry so they don’t want to accept the grim reality ahead.

It will be way worse than 2008 because there will be no Emirates, Qatar or Asian carriers to hire all those left overs.


Based on what data? Even in China cases are on a steep decline. Countries like Russia, Vietnam, Denmark and India have been capable of controlling it, so your doom and gloom is not supported by the numbers, go cry wolf somewhere else.
 
AndyW35
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:50 pm

Wayfarer515 wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
I'm not following this logic- if just about everybody starts laying off pilots (some of hte most expensive employees), which company would pick them up?


Indeed there is a lot of wishful thinking here. A lot of people in this forum works in the aviation industry so they don’t want to accept the grim reality ahead.

It will be way worse than 2008 because there will be no Emirates, Qatar or Asian carriers to hire all those left overs.


Based on what data? Even in China cases are on a steep decline. Countries like Russia, Vietnam, Denmark and India have been capable of controlling it, so your doom and gloom is not supported by the numbers, go cry wolf somewhere else.


Based on what data?
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:53 pm

Wayfarer515 wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
I'm not following this logic- if just about everybody starts laying off pilots (some of hte most expensive employees), which company would pick them up?


Indeed there is a lot of wishful thinking here. A lot of people in this forum works in the aviation industry so they don’t want to accept the grim reality ahead.

It will be way worse than 2008 because there will be no Emirates, Qatar or Asian carriers to hire all those left overs.


Based on what data? Even in China cases are on a steep decline. Countries like Russia, Vietnam, Denmark and India have been capable of controlling it, so your doom and gloom is not supported by the numbers, go cry wolf somewhere else.


It’s hard to predict either way. I think this impacts bottom lines for the carriers through 2022. Next year will be worst of the 3 I think. The other issue is how many people won’t go on business trips and realize they don’t miss them and stop? Others will realize how much they loved getting a week away from the wife or husband and kids and won’t be able to wait to go on business again. There’s going to be a Contingency of the population who needs to see this become armageddon by May 1 or they’ll resume their normal travel lifestyle. Then there will be others who wait til it’s over then there will be some who never get over it as some never got over 911 and don’t fly still.
 
hpff
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:17 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
kimimm19 wrote:
Does anyone think the airlines might prices to try and stimulate business from those who will still fly? Or is it more likely to go the other way and airlines will try and compensate for losses by hiking prices as the craze spreads to Europe and NA?


Uhhhhh you may want to look at ticket prices right now......

AS is offering $99 fares or below on nearly all of their routes, saw some $20 fares

Just purchased ORD-FLL round trip on AA for $50.......for two weeks from now (Literally peak Spring Break).

Airlines must be bleeding money heavily at this point.....


Unlike WN, AS is going to be hit hard. I just cancelled Seattle travel on AS for the next couple weeks. My contacts there in corporate positions (pretty much all the big ones) are all working from home the rest of the month and all non-necessary travel being cancelled, someone said that travel that would have been "necessary" in the past no longer is in this circumstance. Someone said they can get to Hawaii for $150RT on AS from Seattle, but is deciding to self-isolate considering they know they've been in the same location as someone symptomatic.

I know of many others cancelling domestic travel as well even though it's from places at most minimally impacted from the virus, going to places at most minimally impacted by the virus.

I still may end up flying to Portland on business in March, though my handful of contacts there are similarly restricted on travel. Right now I'd go pretty much anywhere that's not Wuhan, Seattle, Italy, or Iran, but I'd probably drive instead of fly if it's within 10 hours just to limit potential exposure.

Making the WN comparison because AS has a similar amount of international risk as WN, unlike the big 3.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:41 pm

Augusta and the IOC officially announce today/last night no cancellation or postponements. I think athletes lost their minds last week when they threatened cancellation. When you’ve trained all your life for that and you’re young you will do anything to compete.
 
tphuang
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:44 pm

Wayfarer515 wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
I'm not following this logic- if just about everybody starts laying off pilots (some of hte most expensive employees), which company would pick them up?


Indeed there is a lot of wishful thinking here. A lot of people in this forum works in the aviation industry so they don’t want to accept the grim reality ahead.

It will be way worse than 2008 because there will be no Emirates, Qatar or Asian carriers to hire all those left overs.


Based on what data? Even in China cases are on a steep decline. Countries like Russia, Vietnam, Denmark and India have been capable of controlling it, so your doom and gloom is not supported by the numbers, go cry wolf somewhere else.

China has managed to turn things around by using measures that would be unthinkable in a western democracy. Even Korea hasn't managed to tame The virus yet and they have a great system in place. The other countries you mentioned simply haven't got a major outbreak yet. A lot of this stuff is just random luck.

China is unlikely to have much travel demand internationally as long as the virus is still an issue elsewhere.
 
tphuang
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:46 pm

hpff wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
kimimm19 wrote:
Does anyone think the airlines might prices to try and stimulate business from those who will still fly? Or is it more likely to go the other way and airlines will try and compensate for losses by hiking prices as the craze spreads to Europe and NA?


Uhhhhh you may want to look at ticket prices right now......

AS is offering $99 fares or below on nearly all of their routes, saw some $20 fares

Just purchased ORD-FLL round trip on AA for $50.......for two weeks from now (Literally peak Spring Break).

Airlines must be bleeding money heavily at this point.....


Unlike WN, AS is going to be hit hard. I just cancelled Seattle travel on AS for the next couple weeks. My contacts there in corporate positions (pretty much all the big ones) are all working from home the rest of the month and all non-necessary travel being cancelled, someone said that travel that would have been "necessary" in the past no longer is in this circumstance. Someone said they can get to Hawaii for $150RT on AS from Seattle, but is deciding to self-isolate considering they know they've been in the same location as someone symptomatic.

I know of many others cancelling domestic travel as well even though it's from places at most minimally impacted from the virus, going to places at most minimally impacted by the virus.

I still may end up flying to Portland on business in March, though my handful of contacts there are similarly restricted on travel. Right now I'd go pretty much anywhere that's not Wuhan, Seattle, Italy, or Iran, but I'd probably drive instead of fly if it's within 10 hours just to limit potential exposure.

Making the WN comparison because AS has a similar amount of international risk as WN, unlike the big 3.

I am shocked as hasn't cut capacity yet given sea is the epicenter of this virus in America. They have fare sales everywhere. Going to be a very tough first half for them.

Still not as bad as legacy carriers though.
 
AA747123
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:50 pm

AndyW35 wrote:
AA share price looks positively north Korean at the moment.


Of the US3, I could see AA in CH11 in the next few months. Given a 34 billion debt load they are in serious trouble and cannot manage a huge down turn in travel.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:53 pm

AA747123 wrote:
AndyW35 wrote:
AA share price looks positively north Korean at the moment.


Of the US3, I could see AA in CH11 in the next few months. Given a 34 billion debt load they are in serious trouble and cannot manage a huge down turn in travel.


haven’t they been turning massive profits ala Delta and United the last 2-3 years or am I dreaming?
 
AA747123
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:55 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
AA747123 wrote:
AndyW35 wrote:
AA share price looks positively north Korean at the moment.


Of the US3, I could see AA in CH11 in the next few months. Given a 34 billion debt load they are in serious trouble and cannot manage a huge down turn in travel.


haven’t they been turning massive profits ala Delta and United the last 2-3 years or am I dreaming?


I would not call AA profits "massive" by any means. They only make money by selling miles to credit card companies. Operationally they are break even at best. DL and UA are making substantially more than AA in profits.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: How DL (and other U.S. carriers) may cut expenses/conserve cash

Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:58 pm

raylee67 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
3. If the whole market goes South, investors will be holding on very tight to their wallets. Another problem is that no one would lend to an airline that isn't making any kind of revenues. In most cases, as we saw in 2008/2009, rating companies will downgrade even the best of companies or countries to junk status rather quickly, making borrowing prohibitive even in a low interest environment.

2008/2009 is a financial/credit crunch. It was the bank doesn't trust each other, hence they stop lending to each other. This time, it's not an issue with the financial industry. The market is now literally awash with cash. You look at the 24-hr repo market and see how calm it is and you will understand. I have explained above clearly, the price of a bond is based on US treasury yield + risk premium. You talked about the risk premium being increased (e.g. rating downgrade), but 10-year UST yield is now at 93bp, which is way lower than what it was a week ago. Risk premium is not going to increase by that much. Not yet anyway. Many institutional investors are now holding on cash (and I mean billions of cash) and looking desperately for something to buy. Only the retail investors are scared and hold tight to their wallets. Institutional investors are not. Or at least they cannot hold tight for long. Because it is their job to invest in something. And that something cannot be cash. Delta has a relatively strong balance sheet now. It will attract bids. I cannot say the same for some other airlines. But for Delta, it's a good time to raise debt.


Waterbomber2 wrote:
4. Buy oil, ok, with what money? As I explained a few posts back, even DL only has 3 billions of cash on their balance sheet and if you check their earnings reports, you will realise that their monthly payroll cost alone is 3 billions... Sell airplanes to save cash? To whom? All airlines will be in the same boat.

I am saying oil futures, not oil. You only need to put up collateral to execute a future contracts. And the collateral doesn't need to be cash. Granted, this is more for "planning for the good days in future" than surviving now, but if they expect to survive, then this is something that can be considered.


I followed the 2008/2009 crisis from closeby. I was in Ohio when just miles away, a 90-year shot herself when she knew that her home was being foreclosed.
My friends over there were worried about plummeting house values resulting in their homes being insufficient to be maintained as sole lien for their mortgage.
If this virus expands, I don't know if house values will be affected directly, but I know for a fact that people will earn less and lose purchase power and will have less room for repayments.
Italy has already issued a decree to allow households affected by the virus to stop loan repayments.

Back then during the Lehman crash US Treasury yields also took a dive as people looked for safe havens.
US treasury yields are not a measure of how much cash is around, but rather the broader confidence in the economy and confidence in the US Treasury.
It's true that there is cash and wealth in the open market currently, but that doesn't mean that people are ready to lend it to about anyone. In fact quite the opposite, the lower the interest yields, the less risk lenders and investors want to take. That's why everyone is fleeing to US treasury bonds and not corporate bonds.

Due to Covid19, airlines are getting few bookings and are processing refunds. In an extreme example, this means that sales (not revenue) could be negative. So even without taking into account costs, you could have negative cash flow. That's for instance why you see AF-KLM currently proactively offering free rebookings or vouchers for future travel, trying to avoid refunds.
Strongly negative cash flow means that you have negative repayment power. If you take a loan, it means that you'll be repaying the loan from your cash reserve, which defeats the purpose of taking the loan.
So if you issue corporate bonds with a maturity of say 5 years and the Covid19 crisis lasts 2 years, investors need to be sure that you have enough cash reserves to 1. survive the 5 years AND 2. repay the loan at maturity. In a negative cash flow environment, considering other debts that airlines already have, this quickly becomes a suicide mission.
I doubt that airlines issued bonds issued today will be subscribed even if the coupon is at 30%, regardless of how well US treasury yields are doing. Airlines stocks are freefalling for the same reason, there's no investor confidence.

Remember that the US treasury has the power to print money. Airlines have that too in good times (via earnings), but in very bad times, they are like hot coal, and these are very bad times.


4. About oil futures. Futures are just the price + market premium according to delivery date
For instance crude oil futures for a 2024 delivery are currently trading for the current barrel price + 10%.
If you purchase futures against collateral, you have to remember that the collateral will be weighted at market value.
An owned A320 that was worth 30 million USD in 2019 may now only be considered to be worth 3 million USD as collateral for a futures contract.
In that case it makes more sense to loan cash against aircraft collateral from a bank and purchase some long-term options, limiting your upfront expenditure, and building some cash reserves.


In my opinion, saving on fuel in 2024 is the least of the CFO's concern now.
Surviving the next 6 months is what they will be concerned about.


I also correct my previous comment of DL's payroll. 3 USD billion per quarter, not per month.
So DL has 3 billion in cash, a quarter's worth in payroll.
We're talking about DL, an airline that can be considered to be the top airline of the world in terms of profitability and management.
I don't want to think about all the rest of the industry. Flybe was just the unlucky one to be the first to go and unless Covid19 goes away, there will be many more and even the best ones will need bail-outs, against the rules of capitalism.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:02 am

Some additional anecdotal info from some seatmaps within a few hours of departure today (Thursday 3/5) for US carries TATL eastbound. Seatmaps can be iffy (sometimes worse than iffy), especially further out when some people have booked but not paid for a seat assignment. But a few hours before departure they are pretty indicative of load.

Italy is brutal
AA PHL-FCO AA 33 total on an A330
UA EWR-MXP 46 total, 4 up front, 10 in the middle and 32 in the back on a 764
DL JFK-FCO 53 total, 8 up front and 45 in back on an A330

Elsewhere, as Midwestindy and others have pointed out, first/business is taking a beating. Checking around 15 UA/AA/DL flights from the Northeast
. First/Business widely 40-60% empty to continental Europe, LHR closer to normal
. Coach varies -- some flights (LHR and continent) fewer than a dozen open seats, others maybe up to 20-35% empty but other than Italy coach doesn't look as bad.

Obviously this isn't the TATL peak season and it's not like any given flight on any day should be packed. But there's a huge difference between 15-20 open seats in back and 15-20 open up front.

I guess these make sense -- close-in business travel is slashed while many leisure travelers already booked hold their (metaphorical) breath and fly anyway. I wonder if when the virus (and virus fears) are on the wane the front cabin will recover first coach will lag for many months after.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:15 am

United has suspended SFO/XNA till at least Oct 1st.
 
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qf789
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:26 am

Qantas to cut more international capacity, HKG along with Japan and some AKL flying

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20T02A
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qf789
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:28 am

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smartplane
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:34 am

Went online earlier today, looking at ME3 business class options for UK return. Admittedly I'm known to them, but within 60 minutes of looking, but not booking, all three had phoned to see if they could assist.
 
KirkSeattle
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:39 am

WaywardMemphian wrote:
United has suspended SFO/XNA till at least Oct 1st.


United has suspended Northwest Arkansas Airport? For coronavirus? Gesh this thread is getting simply crazy without documentation. EVEN if United did it, follow it up with a link of proof.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:49 am

KirkSeattle wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
United has suspended SFO/XNA till at least Oct 1st.


United has suspended Northwest Arkansas Airport? For coronavirus? Gesh this thread is getting simply crazy without documentation. EVEN if United did it, follow it up with a link of proof.



Lighten up

https://talkbusiness.net/2020/03/united ... ronavirus/
 
babastud
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:52 am

KirkSeattle wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
United has suspended SFO/XNA till at least Oct 1st.


United has suspended Northwest Arkansas Airport? For coronavirus? Gesh this thread is getting simply crazy without documentation. EVEN if United did it, follow it up with a link of proof.



It makes sense! this flight is for those going on to China primarily and then the rest of Asia. This flight caters to Wal-Mart headquarters. So if Asia is shutting down and Wal-Mart are not sending VP's on those flights, there is no reason for it. Why is this "crazy".
 
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par13del
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Re: How DL (and other U.S. carriers) may cut expenses/conserve cash

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:54 am

tphuang wrote:
stop buyback plans would be a good way to conserve cash right now. If I'm an investor, I would be very mad an airline is doing stock repurchase when the house is on fire.

Unless you are the investor who wants to sell your stock so that you have cash on hand to weather the storm, investors come in all sizes and shapes, including small business owners...
 
trex8
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:01 am

Not sure if this should be here or in the 777 production thread

Boeing sends 10 workers home, cleans 777 Everett factory area after man falls ill

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b33f9807-a6 ... home-.html
 
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AirAfreak
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:15 am

My goodness I’ve never seen so much negativity within a single thread. Do we all need to be reminded how horrible airplane food served throughout the 80’s and 90’s was THE hot topic for discussion? Seriously, some a.net members need to take a Xanax and calm down. Coronavirus is a “bullet” that cannot be dodged; bad airplane food however, can. Now let’s look at the positive and meaningful impact of Coronavirus; not one person has mentioned the environmental benefits of having fewer scheduled aircraft, for example. The fact that I didn’t miss my flight when I checked in at the airport ticket counter at 17H22, for an international flight boarding at 17H35, is a blessing. Life happens and we move on. And please kindly stop with all of this negative speculation of doom and gloom because the last time I checked, none of you are Miss Cleo or identify yourselves as a Medium or are members of the Psychic Friends Network.
Korean Air | Excellence in Flight.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:20 am

Cathay Pacific to close its YVR crew base in June

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hon ... ne-putting
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crownvic
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:51 am

As all of this is going on, we are getting "tons" of wide-bodies in LAS. AA was using extra 772s to DFW today on top of the regular 788 flights. United was running 772s on various routes and AC was replacing Rouge with 789s.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:55 am

LNCS0930 wrote:
It’s hard to predict either way. I think this impacts bottom lines for the carriers through 2022. Next year will be worst of the 3 I think. The other issue is how many people won’t go on business trips and realize they don’t miss them and stop? Others will realize how much they loved getting a week away from the wife or husband and kids and won’t be able to wait to go on business again. There’s going to be a Contingency of the population who needs to see this become armageddon by May 1 or they’ll resume their normal travel lifestyle. Then there will be others who wait til it’s over then there will be some who never get over it as some never got over 911 and don’t fly still.


That will be interesting to see. If this last long, maybe we will see some structural change to business trips. Not to mention those big international "conventions" that IMO were already quite controversial (in terms of exorbitant cost of hotel/flights, environmental impact, prostitution and sexual harrassment linked to them, etc.). A lot of those trips/conventions are sold as "perks" in a competitive job market. If a major crisis comes 2009-style, companies will like to save and will not feel the need to be more competitive. I could also see a structural decrease in exotic trips to places like Phuket or Dubai. It seems like Japanese are always ahead: https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/02/ ... -the-world
 
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Carlos01
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:02 am

AirAfreak wrote:
Now let’s look at the positive and meaningful impact of Coronavirus; not one person has mentioned the environmental benefits of having fewer scheduled aircraft, for example.


This is actually a very interesting point, I am having my eye on it. Air travel being significantly cut down globally, and also a significant downturn in several industrial sectors, lots of fairs and events being cancelled, even daily commuting to work is reduced on a global scale. This is exactly what the climate alarmists have been asking for to save the planet.

If this Corona-madness continues even for 1-2 months on a global scale, I would expect it to have at least a small impact to the global CO2 -levels in the atmosphere. And that in turn should have at least a minimal impact on the global temperatures.

If nothing changes in CO2 and the climate, the IPCC will have a tough job explaining that away.
 
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KrustyTheKlown
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:09 am

Carlos01 wrote:
AirAfreak wrote:
Now let’s look at the positive and meaningful impact of Coronavirus; not one person has mentioned the environmental benefits of having fewer scheduled aircraft, for example.


This is actually a very interesting point, I am having my eye on it. Air travel being significantly cut down globally, and also a significant downturn in several industrial sectors, lots of fairs and events being cancelled, even daily commuting to work is reduced on a global scale. This is exactly what the climate alarmists have been asking for to save the planet.

If this Corona-madness continues even for 1-2 months on a global scale, I would expect it to have at least a small impact to the global CO2 -levels in the atmosphere. And that in turn should have at least a minimal impact on the global temperatures.

If nothing changes in CO2 and the climate, the IPCC will have a tough job explaining that away.


It doesn't work like that at all.

A measurable decrease in temperature would require negative emissions (more CO2 stored by plants and oceans than emissions) over decades not mere months of (maybe) reduced emissions.
 
acomp
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:04 am

tphuang wrote:
Wayfarer515 wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:

Indeed there is a lot of wishful thinking here. A lot of people in this forum works in the aviation industry so they don’t want to accept the grim reality ahead.

It will be way worse than 2008 because there will be no Emirates, Qatar or Asian carriers to hire all those left overs.


Based on what data? Even in China cases are on a steep decline. Countries like Russia, Vietnam, Denmark and India have been capable of controlling it, so your doom and gloom is not supported by the numbers, go cry wolf somewhere else.

China has managed to turn things around by using measures that would be unthinkable in a western democracy. Even Korea hasn't managed to tame The virus yet and they have a great system in place. The other countries you mentioned simply haven't got a major outbreak yet. A lot of this stuff is just random luck.

China is unlikely to have much travel demand internationally as long as the virus is still an issue elsewhere.


I will say the epidemic in China is over only if Russia unblocks Chinese travelers and reopens their borders.

Global air travel demand is dropping rapidly.
Emirates and Singapore Airlines might ground a lot of 777s and A380s this time.

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